
Rod Babers and Jeff Howe break down the biggest key to Steve Sarkisian getting the Texas offense back to championship level in 2026: explosive plays. The guys dive into the dramatic drop-off from Texas leading the country in 20-plus-yard plays in 2024 to ranking near the middle of the pack last season, including the stunning lack of big runs from the running back position. The conversation also examines why the run game must become more consistent, how Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers can help restore explosiveness, and why Sark may need to bring back more variety through personnel packages like pony, empty, and six offensive linemen. Rod and Jeff explain how trust, offensive line improvement, and better scheme balance could unlock the full version of Sark’s offense this season.
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Rod (Football Analyst)
Hey, what's up folks? Welcome back to Owen Texas Football and welcome to another edition of Football Theory. I'm Lifetime Longhorn Rod Babies. Pleased to be joined by my good friend, esteemed colleague and fellow football theorist Jeff Howe. Today we're going to look at what should be the secret sauce for Steve Sarkeesian this year on offense. Explosive plays. All right. Now how he's going to come about getting those supposed plays and generating them. Different discussion, but that's what Starks got to get back to being explosive offense. That's what we'll discuss here on this edition of Football Theory, brought to you by accomplished Austin Real to Laura Baker. We'll tell you more about her coming up a little bit later on. But Jeff, some of the numbers with Texas and explosive plays last season were, I mean, stupefying if you will, stupefyingly bad, I should say. Coming up 2024 season, Texas led the country in my definition of explosive plays. Everybody's kind of got their own definition. Kind of. I'm looking at just 20 plus yard blanket plays. Just 20 plus yard plays in Texas in 2024. Led the country in 20 plus short plays. We had 108 of them total last season. You were Right in, I think around 50 something ranking in 20 plus short plays. You only had 59, 20 plus short plays the entire season. Only 12 of those came on the ground, Jeff. So this season I think there is a focus. Sark has talked about it multiple times this offseason. Getting back to our style of play, our running game. And I think what he's saying is they just want to get more explosive on offense. They do have the weapons. Happens. But last season a lot went wrong to really, I should say, kind of limit that offense and its explosivity.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
You got little to no explosiveness out of not just the run game, but your running back position. And I, I know Trey Wisner was hurt for part of the year and we know the offensive line was, it was a mess until you really got it figured out. And one of the saving graces that happened last year, that I don't know if we talk enough about, but like Cole Hudson's injury, it allowed you to move Connor Robertson to center. And then when Cole Hudson came back, you know, they had that revolving door at left guard. You just stuck him in at left guard when he came back from the injury for the Vanderbilt game. And then it's like, oh, you've got an offensive line combination that's actually competent and they were, you know, pretty decent by the end of the year. But you got little to nothing out of your run game. Right? I crunched some numbers and this is kind of where I was going with explosive plays this week. It's been on my mind because I, I've been fascinated by the Mississippi State game being the line of demonstration for the offense last year because that was the game where AJ Milley went back to the press box and Arch got his season turned around. The second half of the Mississippi State game, he talked about the Kentucky game coming out of that game, which is maybe the worst offensive performance in Sark's tenure, was that Kentucky game. Like you can argue considering personnel and where you were, it was really bad. You had season lows for total yards, 179 yards per play, 3.3 first engine, 8 first downs in an overtime game, I guess is not gonna cut it anyway, shape or form, you were pretty lucky, pretty fortunate to win that ball game. But I started looking at the Mississippi State game and the first seven games, Rod, your explosive play rate was about 12 and a half percent. So I looked at the set those last six games in the offense, pretty much all your numbers were up. Total yards per game, yards per play, passing yards, third down, conversion rate. We'll get to something here though. That's kind of the telltale sign of that. But your explosive play rate was still 12 and a half percent. I'm like, so your offense was better but your explosive play rate was about the same. And we know last year the offense wasn't explosive. It's because of the run game or lack thereof. You had no explosiveness out of the run game. 57 rushing attempts last year for Texas went for 10 or more yards. 10 of those were in the bowl game against Michigan. So like 17 of your 10 plus yards runs last year came in one game. So that tells you how much you lacked explosives. And we're talking about this before we started. Right. And I, I, you know people are going to think we're lying but like we, we checked and like did it was, it's one of the most mind blowing stats of the season. Texas had 12 carries last year that went for 20 or more yards. Non running backs accounted for eight of the 12. Arch had six, Matthew Caldwell had one.
Rod (Football Analyst)
Yep.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
Ryan Wingo had one. And then you go to the running back position. Trey Wiser had three and Christian Clark had one in the bowl game like that is. And you wonder why. Now it's like okay, why, why did start go overkill and get Hollywood Smothers and Relik Brown out of the portal? Because he's not leaving anything to chance this year. Like when Trey Weisner went down, your run game pretty much ceased to exist. Your productivity from the running back position fell off a cliff if you didn't have a healthy Trey Wisner. So Sark double down. But yeah, you've gotta rod you. They've got to figure out a way to get more explosive plays out of the running game.
Rod (Football Analyst)
Yeah. And it is, it's the running game that kind of drags the rest of the, the explosivity of the offense down last season. But I went and looked at points per drive so I know by the way I only looked at power four teams. I didn't want to look at the three teams they played. There were non power four teams because that does skew and distort the sample a little bit. So I went and looked at points per drive on drives against power four teams and I took out the trash time drives. I took out the drives with neo downs. We took that out.
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Rod (Football Analyst)
So I just looked at the really the meaningful drives that Texas had. Not the kneel downs and not when they were closing out a game and trying to just run out the clock. So in those drives which is power four teams, all right? And I looked at drives with 20 plus short explosive plays, drives without an explosive play. The points per drive. This is fascinating. Points per drive for Texas when they had an explosive play, all right, versus power four teams, they were over four points per drive. To put that into context for you, North Texas led the country last year in points per drive, 3.79. Texas, when they have an explosive play on a drive, all right, they are basically the most explosive offense in the country statistically. They, they're in that category when they didn't that number points per Drive dropped to 1.07 points per drive versus Power4 teams when they didn't have an explosive plate on a drive which would have put them fourth worst in the country ahead of Charlotte at 0.93, UMass at 0.97 and Oregon State at 1.01 points per drive. So they basically they become the, they want the worst offices in the country when they don't have an explosive play on a drive. 20 plus yard play. But when they do, you're talking about one of the best offenses in the country. Touchdown rate. How about this touchdown rate on drives which 20 plus yard play versus power four teams, your touchdown rate was 50 over 50%. Touchdown rate. All right. Damn. 59 actually. Touchdown rate without an explosive play, your touchdown rate drops to 10%. Your score rate with an exposed to play over 75%. Your score rate without an explosive play drops to 20%. By the way, just to give you context, Texas points per drive on the season you are at 2.61. You were 34th in the country. Your touchdown rate, you're around 29. Your score rate is around 43%. So you are exponentially a better offense. When you get at least just one explosive play on a drive, it changes the whole entire complexion of your offensive entity. And that's why Stark knows he's got to get back to that being his bread and butter. By the way, Sark's one of the best edge in the country. And at Bama in 2019 and 2020, he was top five both of those years in generating 20 plus yard plays. In 23 and 20 Texas were top 10 and first actually in the country in 24 in generating 20 plus short plays. He's got to get back to that. That's what he does better or as well as any offensive mind in the country.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
But it goes back to the run game for me, Rod, because remember I told you about those numbers the first seven games of the season last year versus the last six, your run game was much worse. Just in terms if you just look at yards per game, yards per rushing attempt, you were a little bit better in the last six. You were 4.1 in the first seven, about 4.33 in the last six. But rush yards per game, 149.4 in the first seven, 124.2 in the last six. And remember, you had games like Georgia where Sark just abandoned the run. Like he just feel like we, we. I don't even want to try to run the ball today. And you only got, you only got to the numbers. You got to. Because you ran it really well against A M and you managed to run it really well against Michigan. But like, you didn't run it that great against Vanderbilt. You didn't run it, you know, Mississippi state, you were 32 for 72 run of the football. Now granted sack yards. But even when you break it down, Rod, if you look at sack adjusted rushing yards, I went back and looked at it, sack adjusted rushing yards per game last year. If you take out sacks, Texas 148.4 rush yards per game, even if you take out sacks, about 4.77 per carry. That's terrible because you're basically taking out the, the, the really big negative plays and you're still at the best mediocre run the football like you just could not bust the grape in the run game last year. And to your point, yes, obviously it makes sense if you have more explosive plays. You and I, you know, we, you know, there's a certain coaches, like there's a few coaches. If you, if you look at like Bill Walsh, Bill Parcells and probably like Don Coriel, like you can follow the coaching trees of those three guys, basically get to where we are in modern football, right? So Bill Walsh was huge on explosive plays and explosive play margin. And we know Sark, that's one of his football heroes.
Rod (Football Analyst)
He took.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
Took a lot from Bill Walsh. There's a lot of Bill Walsh philosophy, a lot of Bill Walsh offense and what Sark does. So it's no surprise that Sark leans on the explosive play. But what you've got to have, Rod, is when the explosive plays aren't there, when you're playing really good talent, when you're playing a Georgia and Ohio State, when you're playing the elite teams, you got to be able to run the football. You got to have something that can balance your offense out, that can boo you for a little bit to keep you from drowning. Not only was the run game for you last year. It wasn't a life preserver. It was an anchor. It drug you down when you needed it because you couldn't go to it. So you've got it. The run game, to me, right at this point with this team, it's kind of like the penalty situation. I don't need you to be top five, number three, whatever. Top three, number one in the country in. In running the football. But you can't be as bad as you were last year. You can't be historically bad as far as a Steve Sarkeesian offense run of the football. You can't have another repeat like that. Even if you're, you know, 50 better than you were last year. That probably makes the difference in two or three ball games. And you got to be more consistent even going back to 24. Rod that off like the number. I know the numbers you gave were for 25, but you go back to 24. The run game was so feast or famine, like you're either running for, you
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Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
3. I would ma I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I would imagine between the A M game and the Clemson game, those two games, you were probably like right around 300 rushing yards per game, like at will against those teams. But then you couldn't bust a grape against Arizona State in the bowl game in the Peach bowl or Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. And it was like that all year. It was they're either running for 200 yards a game or it's 50 or less. Like that's what it felt like. It felt like a true feast or family case. You got to be more consistent running football.
Rod (Football Analyst)
Well, last and I'm glad you bring it up the 2024 season. Remember Texas is a top 10 outside zone running team in the country and just to give you kind of a basic Football 101 lesson here, most of your explosive runs come in the C and the D gap. All right? They come outside. Now that's that's an NFL college, that NFL stack a 70 chance 70 higher chance of likelihood of you popping the explosive play if you're running through the C or the D gap rather than running through the A or the B gap. Right now Texas has become a gap power scheme team. They've actually now for the first time last season they were running more gap schemes than they were wide zone outside zone schemes and I think a lot of those were interior runs. Now you're going to pop fewer of those for a big chunk yardage plays I think. So some of this scheme and is based on scheme and design. Texas went wanted to be more of a bully ball power run team and I think that backfired a little bit too because Sark's O lines are finesse lines, not necessarily physical lines. Lines of scrimmage right O lines that can just move other human beings against their will. So I do wonder if you'll see a shift back to that 2024 team where you were running a ton of outside zone with Wisner and Jaden Blue. And you like you say it was feast or famine but when the team couldn't stop it like Clemson or A M, Oklahoma's have available had a tough time stopping that outside zone. When they can't stop it, Texas will pop two or three of them and then that's all she wrote. You don't need to pop a ton of them. They'll make their adjustments. Once I pop two or three of them, that puts the offensive identity back on track. As you were saying, it doesn't drag down the offensive identity. So I do wonder if we'll see that change as well. Going back to more of the outside zone scheme if you're going to hit duo and pop duo. I was looking at a college football stat about duo the other day and Texas loves to run duo. It's one of their favorite power concepts. The C and the D gap are still the highest likelihoods to pop explosive run, even running duo. So we're getting to the C and the D gap are crucial if you're going to pop big long runs and and Texas tried to be more of an interior run team and run scheme last year and I, I'm not gonna say backfired, but definitely didn't go the way that they anticipated them going to more of a gap count gap power scheme than their zone blocking schemes from the previous years.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
What I think and you know we've talked, we CJ Vogel and I've talked, we kind of talked through this on the air. I don't know you and I have talked it out here on the channel, but I think there's a couple things that you can pin down. Okay. This has to be different in 26 than it was in 25 or even 24. I think probably the switch to gap power schemes, probably for Sark was an overcorrection because we Talked about in 24 they were too wide zone dependent and maybe that was maybe the wrong way of looking at it. The problem was if somebody really defended your wide zone gamer made it a point to take away the wise state. They're like they're you're not gonna run the wide zone on us. You really didn't have that counter punch to go to.
Rod (Football Analyst)
Right.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
And I think last year it goes back to you were at best, let's call it, inconsistent on your interior offensive line. Injuries played a part of that, but sometimes it was just flat out performance issues. Your two guards in your center, you just didn't get consistent play out of your interior offensive line. And you go back to some of the, I think that goes back to some of the short yardage issues, some of the red zone issues. Texas hasn't had a problem acquiring, developing, getting elite tackles like Kelvin Banks, really good. Christian Jones, really good offensive tackle Trevor Guz is going to be a first round pick. Well, you look at the tackle pipeline in the program, it's been really good. But your interior like you go Back to some of those Alabama offenses, if you remember, like sark in that 2020 season. I believe it was in 2019 they took Evan Neal who ended up being a first round tackle. They moved him inside the guard. So basically I think it's, hey. And that's another reason why I'm high on the move for Brandon Baker, moving him from tackle to garden. Why I'm so optimistic about it is you're taking a guy that's proven and granted you it was rocky last year, but we could see towards the end of the year, okay, Brandon Baker's getting better. Like you can watch games and the PFF numbers, whatever metric you're looking at, you can look at it, say, Brandon Baker's getting better. That's why I like the move of him inside to guard. Because now you're going to take some of that athleticism that probably plays better on the interior. He's been through the battles in the SEC for a year. I just like him at guard. You know, we don't know what you, what they're going to get from Lawrence Seymour, which is a question mark at this point. We don't know what left guard's going to be. But your personnel, Rod, I think that's a big part of the problem is your personnel. Guard, center, guard just has to be much more consistent, much better, much better in critical situations than it's been. And I know that might sound like a knock on Jake Majors or Hayden Connor or whatever, but you got to remember too, this kind of goes back to the premium player, premium position discussion for me. Some coaches do consider defensive tackle a premium position. And if you've got a rotation of guys or you got a couple of guys. Yeah, they can impact the game. Which probably means if your personnel and center and guard isn't up to snuff. Yeah, you're not going to be able to, to establish a lot of scrimmage, you're not going to be able to get a push, you're not going to be able to prevent your quarterback from getting pressure in his face. So I, I just think, I think part of it is maybe not over correcting as much or finding that counter punch for Sark whenever teams do make an effort to stop the wide zone. But I think you really.
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Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
To their credit, you know, they kick Baker inside, they went out and got Seymour, they went and got Dylan Sikorski out of the portal. Your personnel on the interiors got to be more consistent.
Rod (Football Analyst)
Yeah. No, I agree with you 100. I love your take about the overcorrection I do think that might have been part of it. And I know they thought because they had been so good running the outside zone, they'll always be able to have that as a bread and butter. And that didn't work as well last season either. But bringing in, I think more, having more physical tight ends and a better combination, I down with you. I think that'll help that. I just think also to kind of wrap things up here, I think Sark's got to get big on. He's got to get more variety back in the offense. There's no doubt his offense was more explosive when he had variety and diversity in it. Last year you were basing 95 or or higher. It's 11 and 12 personnel. Yeah, you gotta have more variety than that, Sark. You have to. If you don't trust me, this offense will starve. And I think the diversity in the offense actually helps you create more explosive plays. I know this because I've tracked it your 6o line packages. See, last year you were probably at. You're probably a 7% explosive play rate in terms of producing 20 plus yard plays. Overall 24, you were right around probably 10%, which is really, really high. But listen, some of these explosive play rates for some of his different personnel groupings, the pony package, you were over 13%, almost 14% in 24, you were over 20% in 23, you were over 16% in 21 and 22. In the pony packaging, explosive play rate. 6o line package, you were 15 and 18% explosive play rate. Your empty sets, you were 19, 19, 21 and 22% explosive play rates out of those. I mean it's, it's to me, some of these cheat codes and some of these different personnel groupings that he can use have proven that they're explosive. Even if you, you turn over the personnel. Right. I know when you have Bijan there and rojo21 personnel, you're supposed to be elite. But you still, when Bijou and rojo left the 40 acres, you were still over 20 closer play pro rate out of your two back sets out of pony package. So I think you got to get back to having more diversity in the offense. If he doesn't, I think that's a big part. Shrinking your personnel groupings is a big part of why I think the explosivity in the offense also shrunk considerably.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
Here's something I always go back to with Sarkarada. I know it must sound like a broken record. It's all about trust with Sark and you can find that in his quote, and I'm probably going to butcher it. But Sarkis said, hey, the more things we can do well, the tougher we are to defend.
Rod (Football Analyst)
Yep.
Jeff Howe (Football Analyst)
By being so limited last year, I think that was Sark's way of saying, you know what, I'm not very confident that there's a lot of things we can do well. We pared it down to here's a few things we feel like we can do pretty well and let's just stay within that because if we get too far outside the box, I don't trust, whether it's the online personnel or whatever the case is, I don't trust the personnel to execute anything outside of these few things that we've repped and we've proven we can do well. So I think that's a really big part of it. It's about trust with Sark and for the newcomers on offense. Like I think Cam Coleman probably already has Sark's trust just because he's talked about him in the offseason. But for League Brown, for Hollywood, Smothers Massunas, how quickly can those guys gain Sark's trust? Because the quicker they do, the more diverse they're going to be. The more stuff they can rep early in the year, the more stuff he can start to stockpile. And then when you look at the big picture, Rod over, the more personnel he trusts. When you get to game 16, game 17, hopefully down the road you're not going to run out of stuff. I know that's a whole different discussion. But personnel Sark can trust, the more diverse you can be, the more stuff he's going to have in his bag on that call sheet.
Rod (Football Analyst)
Totally agree with that.
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Rod (Football Analyst)
Great stuff as always, Jeff. Let's thank our sponsor Laura Baker before we end things. Football Theory brought to you by accomplished Austin realtor Laura Baker. Laura and the Andy Allen team at Keller Williams can handle all of your real estate needs in the Austin area. Laura is not only a Die Hard Longhorn fan, but a long time Austin real estate experts who have any concerns or questions regarding real estate in the Austin area, please don't hesitate to give her a call today. 5127-8405-0551-2784-0505. She's a great partner, also can be a great teammate for you. If you're looking for real estate in the Austin area, check her out at laura@andiallenteam.com that's laura@andiellenteam.com all right. Thank you to Matthew behind the scenes. Great stuff as always. Appreciate him as a real mvp. Appreciate all your expertise, Jeff and thank you out there for watching and for listening for Jeff and for Matthew and for accomplished Austin. Real to Laura Baker. I'm not talking about one ride papers. Until next time.
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Air Date: July 17, 2026
Host/Analysts: Rod Babers, Jeff Howe
This episode of “On Texas Football” dives into the Texas Longhorns’ offensive struggles—specifically, the team’s severe dependence on explosive plays (20+ yard gains) for operational success under Steve Sarkisian. Rod Babers and Jeff Howe break down how the absence of these big plays revealed deep issues in the run game, offensive line, and overall scheme, and discuss what must change for 2026. The analysts offer detailed stat breakdowns, scheme debates, and context for what’s at stake for Texas moving forward.
2024 vs. 2025 Explosive Plays:
“Last season a lot went wrong to really…limit that offense and its explosivity.” – Rod (01:52)
Run Game Specifically Weak:
“They basically become one of the worst offenses in the country when they don’t have an explosive play on a drive… But when they do, you’re talking about one of the best offenses in the country.” – Rod (06:41)
Shift from outside zone to gap/power running backfired:
“Texas has become a gap power scheme team… I think that backfired a little bit.” – Rod (14:27)
Overcorrection in schematic adjustments:
“Probably the switch to gap power schemes…was an overcorrection because in 24 they were too wide zone dependent.” – Jeff (16:44)
2025 offense became too predictable:
“His offense was more explosive when he had variety… Shrinking your personnel groupings is a big part of why I think the explosivity in the offense also shrunk considerably.” – Rod (19:58)
Sark’s Play Calling Tied to Player Trust:
Limits the playbook/formation variety if he doesn’t trust the current personnel’s execution.
“The more things we can do well, the tougher we are to defend.” – Sark, paraphrased by Jeff (22:13)
Newcomers’ ability to gain Sark’s trust in 2026 will dictate offensive diversity and big-play capability.
“For the newcomers…how quickly can those guys gain Sark’s trust?… The more personnel he trusts…the more stuff he’s going to have in his bag on that call sheet.” – Jeff (22:29)
On explosiveness as an identity:
“Sark’s got to get back to being explosive offense. That’s what he does better or as well as any offensive mind in the country.”
— Rod (02:31)
On the run game’s drag:
“Not only was the run game [not] a life preserver. It was an anchor. It drug you down when you needed it.”
— Jeff (11:02)
On offensive diversity:
“If you don’t trust me, this offense will starve… Shrinking your personnel groupings is a big part of why I think the explosivity in the offense also shrunk considerably.”
— Rod (19:58)
Sarkisian’s Trust Metric:
“The more things we can do well, the tougher we are to defend.”
— Paraphrased Sark, via Jeff (22:13)
Rod and Jeff paint a detailed picture of an offense that’s both supremely dangerous and deeply flawed—entirely dependent on hitting home runs, but lacking the supporting fundamentals when those opportunities don’t arise. Their analysis points to the run game’s failures (both schematic and personnel-based), Sarkisian's “trust” threshold for schemes, and the need for more creative, diverse offense. The 2026 season, they conclude, depends on whether Texas can re-discover its explosive identity and support it with a dependable ground game and interior line play.
Summary by On Texas Football Podcast Summarizer