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“A Legitimate National Title Contender” — Phil Steele’s BOLD Texas Prediction | Steve Sarkisian
00:19:33
College football expert Phil Steele joins Bobby Burton to explain why he ranks Texas No. 4 nationally and believes the Longhorns can win the 2026 national championship. Steele projects Texas to have the nation’s No. 3 offense and No. 8 defense,...
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- [00:00]
A
Welcome into a special edition of the Saturday Conversation brought to you by Prize Picks. I'm Bobby Burton, joined by the estimable Phil Steel, he of the preseason magazine, the bible for college football in the preseason. Phil, welcome in bud.
- [00:15]
B
Hey, how the heck are you? Bobby, always pleasure to be on with you.
- [00:19]
A
Yeah, I love talking to you every preseason. It's one of those things. It's feels like a ritual nowadays. I I've got to ask you, I was leafing through your book and found several things interesting but I want to start with this. Your top 10, you have Notre Dame 1, Georgia 2, Ohio State 3, Texas 4 and then Indiana 5, no other then Alabama, but Texas doesn't play them. Oregon, Miami, Alabama, Texas Tech, BYU. In your top 10, how did you come up with Texas at number four? And what's your overall prognostication for the Longhorns?
- [00:58]
B
Well, I think Texas a legitimate national title contender this year. Bobby. I know Arch started out the year a little bit slow last year, but let's keep in mind that the run game struggled last year. Their top running back only had 597 yards, offensive line only had one starter back last year and was a little bit of a weakness during the season this year when you look at that Texas offense, the offensive line is much more veteran unit. They got three starters back plus they add in a couple of guys and Siani, Sikorski, Seymour coming in. So I think the offensive line actually goes from a question mark to a strength this year I rank it in the top 20. You look at the running back core, they add in a thousand yard rusher from NC State and Hollywood Smothers, thousand yard rusher from Arizona State and Relique Brown. So I think the running with the offensive line and the better running corp running backs, the run game will be improved. And I thought Arch Manning improved as the season went on late in the year this guy was dynamic and he's got Ryan Wingo back to throw too. And they add in a guy like Cam Coleman from Auburn. This is a much improved offense this year I think for Texas. And defensively you got to like the pieces with Colin Simmons at the defensive end spot hero canoe inside. They had in Rasheed Biles coming in from Pitt who's one of my all Americans the last couple years. And so the defense I think is going to be. I've got defense number eight in the country, offense number three. I think they're a legitimate national title contender. You know you could take any of those top seven eight teams there and as Miami Proved all you have to do is make the playoff. The key is how you do in the playoff. Maybe avoiding the bye week might be a good thing. You know, we've seen that the bye week teams who are sitting out for four weeks playing a team that played last week, they're 1 and 7 in the playoffs, Georgia's own 2. In that situation, only Kurt Signetti has been able to manage the bye week. So maybe an advantage could be this postseason is not having a buy that for the first round.
- [02:58]
A
Yeah, I think that's definitely something that, that we've hit on as well. You, you want to keep yourself rolling at that point in the season. You don't want three weeks off so your execution can lag and that sort of thing. You talked about that Texas offensive line, and I think that's one of the more interesting viewpoints that you've had this offseason. You have it going from a weakness to a strength. And one of the things that you always do that I like about your book is you show and are able to display the relative value of experience coming back. Like you mentioned, a year ago, Texas only had one starter returning.
- [03:37]
B
Truly.
- [03:38]
A
Now they have three, perhaps even four. Potentially the idea, Phil, that you then look at that and compare it to, I don't know, say Notre Dame or Georgia and Florida and all these other teams that they have. That. That's got to be a very large undertaking. But what is it that makes you land on a team and put their offensive line so much higher than they were a year before, just based on experience? Is that your own experience ranking these teams or, or what is it? What's your, what's your idea behind it?
- [04:11]
B
Yeah, well, I'm on the Joe Moore Award committee and I tell you, those guys are the, that's the hardest working committee out there. These guys break down film left and right. And they're under the assumption right now that the offensive line play the last five years has gone downhill because so many transfers coming in. You don't have that continuity on the offensive line. So I value continuity on the offensive line. You know, you got to be able to work together. You gotta, you gotta know what the other guy's doing. If one guy breaks down and you're five, then you're in trouble. That's why the offensive line play is so key. And having three starters back like that, including an NFL guy, probably a first round draft pick, and Trevor Goosby at left tackle is huge. Now adding in experience is huge. And you know, I've gone through for years and years I've put in the career starts on the offensive line. And, you know, we saw a team like Virginia, for example, Tony Elliott's first two years, he had like one start back on the offensive line, one career start. The second year, he had five career starts, and Virginia really struggled. Last year, Virginia finally had a veteran offensive line, and look, they got all the way to the ACC title game. So I think having those career starts on the offensive line is huge. And Texas, while they had 45 career starts last year, this year they're up to 86. And I like the fact that they have three returning starters as opposed to one that gives them more continuity as well. I also, in my charts and in my graphs, I don't put it in the magazine, but I count the returning starts from last year, which gives you that continuity factor.
- [05:44]
A
That's interesting. I. I got to ask you this. You talk about all of your, how you put your magazine together, and I want to veer off into that for one second. How happy were you that they stopped having the second portal window in April? Because that had to have been now with just a December, now it's just a January portal window. You're actually able to print, print your magazine without getting all these guys, different guys coming in in April and May. Was that a big relief for you? Did that allow you, in your opinion, to make a better magazine this year? Potentially.
- [06:19]
B
Oh. Oh, my goodness, Bobby. You know, it's funny. I. I talked to 133 of the 138 coaches this year, and each one, you have your general startup. To the conversation. Coach will say, hey, how you doing, Phil? They expect me to say, I'm doing great. How about yourself? I say each time to the coach, I'm like, how am I doing? I am doing phenomenal, Coach. There is no second spring portal window this year. I don't have to rewrite 138 teams all in the month of May while I'm trying to talk to 133 coaches. It's been a madhouse these last three years. This is almost back to normal. Super smooth. I am thrilled. But you know what? Each coach came back to me with Bobby. They said, phil, I can't agree with you more. In fact, we had a team this spring we went that we knew that the players we took into the spring were going to be the players we were taking into the fall. We could coach them harder. We could rank them third on our depth chart, knowing they're not going to leave after spring practice is over. The players could bond together knowing that the guy to the left or the right of them wasn't going to leave after the fall and the players didn't have to worry about being replaced after the the spring practice. So we felt so much more like a team this year. And I think we're going to have a much better brand of football in 2026 because of it.
- [07:38]
A
You mentioned the Portal. Texas did pretty well in the portal. 20 plus players, a couple of guys that you have in that all American category and a guy like Cam Coleman out of Auburn and Rasheed Biles out of Pitt. Texas, one of the teams that you think did the best in the portal in 2026.
- [07:57]
B
Yeah, and you know what? I like the fact that when you look at Techs, there are teams out there that especially a group of six, they're bringing in 40, 50 new players every year and it's tough to put a team together. I think the teams that are homegrown, which are, you know, the majority of your squad is the guys you recruited as freshmen and they're sophomores, juniors. And then you use the Portal to accentuate your talent. I think that's the best case scenario. And Texas really did that this year. You know, they're, they ranked number 38 in my Homegrown chart, which is still towards the top of the list. The majority of the team is homegrown. But adding the players they did, they did phenomenal. Like I said, your weakness at running back last year and all of a sudden you bring in 2,000 yard rushers, you bring in all those veterans on the offensive line and then Cam Coleman was probably underutilized at Auburn. He didn't have great quarterbacks thrown to him. Can you imagine Arch Manning now throwing to Cam Coleman? I think that's going to be a revelation for him. He's going to emerge as one of the best wide receivers out there, especially with teams focusing on Ryan Wingo as well. I think Texas hit some big time, got to give it to Sark, hit some big time home runs in the transfer portal.
- [09:08]
A
SEC race Phil, Texas and Georgia have we just got back from SEC media days last week. Those were the two teams everybody talked about, Georgia 1, Texas 2. You have it very similarly situated. How do you see the, how do you see the SEC breaking down this year?
- [09:27]
B
Yeah, I think those are the two most talented teams in the sec, Bobby. You know, when you look at Georgia this year, they talked about the homegrown chart. Georgia's number four on my homegrown chart and the only teams above them are the service academies. So this is purely a homegrown team and I like that they retain their players, they keep their stars. And you look at the defense, I mean, you go to the third string defense and they've got VHTs back there. And these are guys that have been with the team for two, three years. They were a very young team last year. They're now a year older this year and they've been to eight of the last nine SEC title games. Remaining the champs from last year. Again, you look at their offensive line, I've rated number seven in the country. You'll get a running back slide by Nate Frazier. I rate it number six. And then if you're looking for a long shot to win the Heisman this year, I'm going with Gunner Stockton. Gunner Stockton really impressed me last year. On fourth down in the fourth quarter and versus ranked teams, he had a 16 to 2 ratio, 16 touchdowns, just two interceptions against ranked teams last year. He plays the biggest in the biggest moments and I really like that. I like his mobility as well. And then you look at the schedule this year, excuse me, they do play Alabama and Ole Miss on the road, but I've got them favored in all the other games. I've got those two games as toss ups. I think Georgia is going to have a really good year. And then I talked about Texas, I talked about why I like their offense, why I like their defense. You know, last year Texas was number 85 on my experience chart. This year they're all the way up to number 25. Top 10 offense, top 10 defense, much improved. Arch Manning. I think they're a legitimate national title contender as well. I think those are the best two teams now if you're looking for a sleeper pick. And last year I had a couple of sleepers in the SEC. Two teams that weren't ranked in the preseason top 10 that I had making the playoffs at Oklahoma, coming off a six and seven years, my number one surprise team, they made the playoff. And then I had Texas A and M who did not make the playoff and weren't in the top 10 and both teams made the playoff. Watch Alabama, they are so far under the radar this year they're number six in the SEC poll. And I know why. I mean, they got blown out by Georgia in the SEC title game. They got blown out by Indiana in the playoff. They couldn't run the football in the postseason and they lose their quarterback. Ty Simpson. There's nothing to like about this Alabama team, but Kalyn DeBoer is in year three. And I like the talent he's got and I like both quarterbacks, Keelan Russell and Austin Mack. I think whoever wins a job is going to have a good year and they've got good depth behind them. They will have an improved running game. I like Daniel Hill, E.J. kroll, Kevin Riley, A.K. deer. They've got the running backs, they've got the offensive line. They'll get that together this year and then the schedule is manageable. They, I've got them favored in nine of their games with three toss up games, Georgia at home. And remember they beat Georgia on the road last year at Tennessee and at lsu. I think Alabama makes the playoff again this year and, and people forget they actually got, they beat Oklahoma in the, on the road in the playoff last year. So I think they're just way under the radar and they're my number one surprise team.
- [12:36]
A
I think it's interesting, I mean because around here we've been talking about a lot of people talking about LSU and Lane Kiffin, right. And Ole Miss with Trinidad Chambliss and Kawan Lacey. Even an Oklahoma team that returned so many defensive players and Mater as well as some offensive linemen that you went with Alabama. That's, that's a unique perspective, but one that I'm gonna call you back on A M, Texas A M. A lot of our fan base interested and always interested in hearing at least what of people's thoughts are on the Aggies? Where do you have them?
- [13:09]
B
Yeah, Coach Elko is doing a heck of a job with A and M. And you know, each the last two years, if they beat Texas in that final game of the season, they're playing in the SEC title game and they led Texas at the half last year. It, you know, my, my biggest question mark with A and M might be the offensive line because last year's offensive line was really good. You know, coachelko told me the first year he said, phil, we're middle of the road in the SEC for offensive line play. And then last year he says, phil, we're at the, we're at the top. We're one of the best offensive lines. And they were, they almost made it to the finalist of the Joe Moore Award. This year they only have one starter back on the offensive line. He said, right now we're in the middle of the pack. We've got the chance to get up there at the end of the year if all the pieces come together and that's going to be the big thing. But they've got Marcel Reid back. We've seen Marcel Reid be inconsistent. I think he'll be more consistent this year. Another year under his belt. They've got the running backs led by Reuben Owens. I like Mario Craver and Bethel Roman at receiver and they had Isaiah Horton from Alabama. Defensively, they're solid. D.J. hicks, defensive tackle, going to be a, a big time threat up front and I think once again they should get off to a great start. Could very well win their first seven games. I know they have to travel to LSU, but keep in mind last year they beat LSU 4925 in Death Valley. They do have to play Bama and Oklahoma on the road, but that Texas game at the end of the year could very well be be a game that determines once again who gets the SEC title game.
- [14:37]
A
Let's hope so, because if that's the case, I'm going with Arch Manning over Marcel Reed.
- [14:41]
B
There you go. I agree. I agree 100%.
- [14:45]
A
Hey Phil, question for you here. As we talk about Arch Manning and you've gone through this now, you've, you've had to cover him and, and manage. You don't really buy into the hype, which is one of the things I really love about your magazine and how you present yourself. He's been hyped up. You've got him, I think second team All American behind Dante Moore at Oregon. Then you've got Julian saying, C.J. carr. This is a rare year for quarterbacks. You mentioned Gunner Stockton even as a dark horse, Heisman guy, guy, how good a year for quarterbacks is this compared to previous years where you've kind of looked at them?
- [15:27]
B
Well, Bobby, I live in Cleveland and Cleveland needs a quarterback. I am thrilled, thrilled that it doesn't matter where we're picking in the first round. We're going to get ourselves a quality quarterback. Drew Mester, maker of Oklahoma State, here's a guy that never even started a high school game. This guy, all he's done is come in and thrive and now he's taken that step up. You got Darian Mensah coming in from Duke, going to Miami and I think he's going to have a heck of a year. Lenora Sellers, he looked like Superman two years ago at South Carolina. At the end of the year he should be back fully healthy with a much better offense. When I talk to Lincoln Riley, Jaden Maeva, he feels will be a first round draft pick at the end of the year, keep your eyes on him. And especially if USC makes the playoff, you, Trinidad Chambliss was fantastic in the postseason. Sam Lovett. Leave it. Played a great game against Texas in the playoff two years ago and now he's leading lsu. This is a deep, deep. I, you know, compared to last year's quarterback class. No, it's remarkably better. So, yeah, it's a good year if you're in the NFL looking for a quarterback.
- [16:33]
A
All right, that. That's Phil still. Philo. I need to tell. Thank. I need to say thank you to our sponsor, Prize Picks. You guys know we're always looking for ways to make watching games a little more fun. And that's exactly why we love Prize Picks. It's America's number one sports pick app. And honestly, it's about as simple as it gets for Player Picks. All you do is choose more or less on a few player stats and lock in your lineup.
- [16:55]
B
That's it.
- [16:56]
A
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- [18:01]
B
Yeah, probably the. The two biggest boldest ones would be if you're going to play a long shot to win the Heisman. No one's talking about Gunner Stockton. 20 to 1 odds and I think 20 to 1 is a pretty good wager. So go to Price Picks and bet. Can you bet that a price? I don't know.
- [18:18]
A
I don't know about that.
- [18:20]
B
And then the, the other one would be Alabama. Like I said, they're completely under the radar. Pick sixth in the sec. I'm going to call for them to make the playoff and be much better than people expect.
- [18:32]
A
All right. Love it, Phil. Thank you so much. We're going to do this again in a year.
- [18:35]
B
All right. Sounds.
- [18:36]
A
And Bob, Bobby may be back, Phil. Next year.
- [18:40]
B
Yeah, we'll see if he is. You know, real quick, though. Magazine, 376 pages. I got two full pages, all 138 teams. If you're out driving around looking for it, it's only at Barnes and Noble or Books a million. Those are the only two places you can get the magazine or go online@phil steel.com phil steel.com we charge you a shipping charge, but we give you the digital magazine for free. So Barnes and Noble books a millionaire. Phil steel.com Phil, I, I got to
- [19:06]
A
tell you, it is the bible of preseason college football. There is no question about it. You go deep and you go wide. Talking to 133 of 138 coaches. I don't know of anybody else that comes close to that. So thank you so much for your time here at On Texas Football this Saturday morning. And best of luck to you the rest of the season, man.
- [19:26]
B
Thank you, Bobby. Always great talking to you, my friend.
- [19:28]
A
All right. Hey, I gotta say this to you. Hook em horns.
- [19:31]
B
There you go.