Transcript
Tony Tata (0:02)
Perhaps some radioactive materials have been smuggled in and there could be a dirty bone.
Jeff Duden (0:08)
If these were foreign drones, that would be a catastrophic concern.
Tony Tata (0:13)
If Iran or China had a ship and with drones on it, what would the indicators and warnings be of them preparing to launch an attack?
Jeff Duden (0:25)
Welcome everybody to the home front. I'm Jeff Duden and today I am with retired brigadier general Tony Tata. Tony, welcome.
Tony Tata (0:33)
Great to be with you. Joe.
Jeff Duden (0:35)
Tony is a national security expert, a best selling author. Tony served 28 years in the military, was a West point graduate, led our forces in Afghanistan in 2006 and 7 and was the national, was the undersecretary of defense for policy in Washington. Tony, thanks for being on with us today to talk about the drones that have been appearing over the United States.
Tony Tata (1:00)
It's my privilege to speak with you anytime, Jeff.
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Jeff Duden (1:31)
Rilla offer today an important topic like this. Yeah, so Tony, over the last few weeks there has been lots of information all over X, all over the mainstream media, lots of reports, videos, sightings of these drones. And you know, it's very difficult to get a sense to the actual nature of the situation in terms of, you know, are these all drones? Are some of these manned aircraft? And you know, how many, how many of these reports are duplicated? So could you have a sense of what's going on with the drones?
Tony Tata (2:16)
Yeah, so it's a great question and the short answer is I have a general sense of what's happening. What I would like to say is that there are lots of factors at play here. You have citizen reports. You have officials from congress and state legislatures in New Jersey holding official meetings, making official requests of the department of homeland Security or the Biden administration. You had in Ohio, I believe at Wright Patterson Air Force base, you had an airfield shutdown by a commander. You had the commander of Picatinny arsenal, which is where we store, manufacture and research our most advanced ammunition. He said there were 12 confirmed drone sightings. And so these are officials that are making reports. And then you have citizens that are making reports. And so when you have those two venn diagrams Overlapping, you got to put some credibility into what's going on. And then as you dissect, you know, having been in combat and in firefights, where you're getting reports about what's happening, the real question is, for example, the Picatinny arsenal commander, did they see 12 drones or did 12 of their people see one drone? And are they experienced enough at this intelligence collection and double checking, triple checking their information before reporting it up? One thing I do know is that the first port report is usually wrong. That old saying in combat. And so we've got a lot of first reports here. There's got to be some credibility to what's happening. And I'm 100% positive. There's also some inaccuracy in some of the reporting, and we call it circular reporting. Does this person over here report the same thing, this person over here, or does this person hear about it and then say the same thing when they see a jet flying over their house kind of thing? And so even if you weed out the inaccurate reporting, the circular reporting, you do have credibility from both citizens and officials. You still got a little bit of a Venn diagram overlap there, that something is going on here. And so what is? What could it be? And there are lots of theories out there. One is that I've seen it could be highly sensitive US Drones that are sniffing for radiation. And so that's one theory that I've read about where you put it together with the porous border that we've had in the south. It's not beyond the imagination of a fiction writer like me to think that perhaps some, some radioactive materials have been smuggled in and there could be a dirty bomb. So that's kind of a worst case scenario, high density area like Manhattan, Jersey City, Picatinny arsenal. You know, if you, if you dirty up Picatinny Arsenal and we can't use any of that ammunition, we don't have a whole lot of redundancy in that supply chain. And so when you think about what bad guys could do to us with some kind of dirty bomb, that theory makes some sense to me. And it would make sense that if we don't have confirmation that there's a dirty bomb out there, but we want to try to get that confirmation, then I could see why they, they, the U.S. government might be hesitant to say, hey, we're looking for a dirty bomb, you know, then everybody would freak out, right? I mean, I've had friends in the Jersey Manhattan area texting me saying, hey, should I take my kids and get get out of here. And in its corner, kind of Orson Welles, if you remember the radio show where he said the Martians are landing. And everybody legitimately freaked out because they thought it was a real report, not an entertainment segment that Orson Welles was doing. And so there's a, you know, that's kind of the worst case scenario. Well, I don't know that it's worst case. You know, then there's people that believe it's extraterrestrial. I don't know if that'd be good or bad. The, the. I tend to not, not believe that that's, that's what's happening here. I do. I, I have had friends, like legitimate, professional, just kind of mainstream kind of people text me, call me, say, I saw this from my Manhattan window or I'm in Jersey and I saw this, you know, very close to my house. And so I think, I think there's credence to what people are seeing. And then the question is, what's the purpose? If it's a US thing endeavor, it could be to find something, right? And what they're looking for, it would depend on, you know, the intelligence that, that they've got. And, you know, not to be political, but there's been a lot of distrust in the FBI and DHS lately with, you know, a lot of things happen along the border, you know, the weaponization of different aspects of the government, so forth. But, and so the people don't. The people, Joe Sixpack or Jane Six Pack feels like she needs, or he needs to verify this themselves because, because of the erosion of trust in the, in the government. And, and so you have, and then you have X, which Elon Musk is open, wide open. And so you have people positing different theories on there. And it's intriguing, it's. It's captivating, it's scary. And, and so it begins to create this, this cascade of emotions and reason trying to. People trying to reason and people getting emotional. And that's sometimes a good combination because that tension creates, finds the truth, and sometimes the emotion can outweigh. Now if it's the third option, it could be domestic, where we're looking for something. It could be something from outer space, which I, I sort of discount. And then the third option is that it's. And I've written, you know, in four of my 16 novels, I've used this concept where a merchant ship coming in, you know, typically loaded with Barbie dolls from China or, or whatever, has containers that have drones in them, and they set out in Manhattan harbor, the Chesapeake Bay near Baltimore, Norfolk, Virginia beach area. And they launch drones and they either recon or attack. And to me, that's not. I was doing a panel once at a author convention and I got asked the question, do you ever think you're giving the bad guys ideas? And I said, well, I certainly hope not. But I think if I can sit there and think about it, you know, certainly the bad guys can, can come up with it also. But, and, and I used to participate in these red teaming exercises where we would, with some Hollywood producers out in Santa Monica, go through indicators and warnings of this exact kind of scenario. What if, if, if Iran or China had a ship and with drones on it, what would the indicators and warnings be of, of them preparing to launch an attack or trying to just get intelligence. And you remember the balloon that came over, there were five or six different stories from the government on that until they finally, you know, shot it down over South Carolina over the ocean. So I think this is a phenomena that is yet to be resolved. And the one cautionary point I would make is that drone defenses are really hard. Defense against drones is really hard. And you see this. Remember the Saudi Aramco attack several years ago, where Iran launched a bunch of drones at the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. It was pretty devastating to Saudi Arabia's, you know, GDP and so forth. And there was really no defense against it. They fly so fast. They're not manned. They're, they're, quote, unquote fearless because they're not manned. And they, they, they're, they're, they're very accurate. And so if there was that kind of capability sitting off the coast, it's something to really be concerned about because I wrote a book a long time ago called Rogue Threat that actually Ridley Scott and Tracy Falco contact me, wanting to, you know, discuss film rights and all that. Of course, it never, never happened. I mean, I talked to them, but never became a movie. But it was a Chinese merchant ship. Instead of containers, it was just a shell that looked like containers. And inside were these big drones that could carry chemical, biological nuclear weapons. And they launched off the merchant ship like an aircraft carrier that was covered up by a fabricated shell that looked like containers from the sky. And, and that was. I wrote that book, Jeff, in 2002, three, four, somewhere in there. And, and so that's 20 years ago. And, and the idea of swarming drones has fascinating me, fascinated me. I've got a book called Besieged, and I'm not here to pimp my books, but you should sir, they're outstanding. Thank you. Besieged is Iran with merchant ships and coots force on them and they have swarming drones that have AI in them. I wrote this book in 201314 that swarm to attack port infrastructure to cripple our economy. When you think of different creative ways to get at the United States machine, if you're a bad guy, if you're an adversary to the United States and you think creatively about it, you know, these are things that, capabilities that are sort of asymmetric. They're, they're not high tech. You get a merchant ship, it's flagged under Liberia or something, you sail it up Chesapeake Bay and you park it and you go to town. And I'm actually shocked that it doesn't have to be one of my books. But there's been no movie that kind of capitalizes on that capability. And it's pretty straightforward. Chasing the lion has drones swarming drones attacking the inauguration of the President, which is kind of the finale. I wrote a book called Drone Strike that attacks Milwaukee, Wisconsin, you know, from a ship that. With Nick Irving, the Reaper. So this, this has been a concept that I've really been captured by because, because it's such a vulnerability for us and it's such an asymmetric sort of not easy, but it's not complicated to employ it against the United States and even in combat. Jeff Commanders our ability to defend against low, slow drones, as we call them, is really challenging. To find the, you know, the drone amongst the ground clutter, birds, you know, animals, you know, find that in an inanimate object. It's been, we've been studying it for a long time. We have some emerging capability, but it's still a tough, it's. It's a tough knockdown. And when you've got them swarming, it becomes even tougher. So, so that. Those are my initial thoughts on all this, that, you know, there's something to it. There's really probably three options. It's us, it's them, it's outer space. And we're trying to. The American citizens are trying to figure it out.
