On the Media: "Is America Becoming an Autocracy?"

Date: August 29, 2025
Hosts: Michael Loewinger
Key Guests: Andrew Marantz (The New Yorker), Juana Philip (Romanian journalist), Martin Gulyash (Partizan), Maria J. Stephan (political scientist)

Overview

This episode investigates whether the United States is sliding toward autocracy, drawing parallels with democratic backsliding in Hungary, Romania, and elsewhere. Through expert interviews, lived international comparisons, and case histories, On the Media breaks down the subtle and not-so-subtle erosion of democratic norms, explores the dynamics of media capture and civic resistance, and confronts the difficult questions Americans may have to face if the country's democratic legitimacy continues to erode.

Main Discussion Points and Key Insights

1. “Backsliding Democracy” — International Reflections

[00:19–03:37]

• Juana Philip, a Romanian journalist, reaches out to Michael Loewinger for advice on coping with democratic erosion—mirroring his own queries to Hungarian journalists about similar backsliding abroad, creating a moment of “ironized reversal.”
  • “So when this started to crumble, it was very weird for us.” – Juana Philip [02:10]
• Both speakers grapple with the shift in perception of American democracy—from exemplar to cautionary tale—and the uncomfortable realization that America is now subject to the same questions outsiders ask about waning freedoms.

2. Defining American Backslide: The Five Categories of Authoritarian Drift

[03:37–06:26]

• Christina Pagel’s checklist (from UCL) categorizes threats to US democracy under the Trump administration:
  1. Undermining Institutions & Rule of Law – e.g., ending birthright citizenship.
  2. Corruption – e.g., Trump profiting from regulatory decisions.
  3. Attacking Data – e.g., firing the BLS head after a bad jobs report.
  4. Aggressive Foreign Policy – e.g., bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.
  5. Suppressing Dissent – e.g., targeting elite universities and media for ideological non-compliance.
• “If Fox News was basically every TV channel and the New York Post was like every newspaper.” – Andrew Marantz [00:00; repeated [17:51]]

3. Lessons from Hungary: Competitive Authoritarianism Explained

[05:51–15:22]

• Andrew Marantz explores Hungary’s transformation under Viktor Orban: gradual “hollowing-out” of democracy instead of blunt, obvious coups.
  • Orban’s Concept of “Illiberal Democracy”: Maintaining elections while eroding the substance of pluralism and the rule of law.
    • “We’ll just keep the parts of democracy that I like because they keep me in power.” – Marantz [07:22]
  • Orban's manipulation involves slow, legalistic changes — analogized to the boiling frog—giving public plausible deniability and avoiding widespread alarm.
  • Central European University (CEU): Founded by George Soros, initially a pro-democracy hub; gradually regulated and stifled by Orban's government until it was a “Potemkin university.” [08:31–10:12]
    • “There’s a building called CEU Budapest, but it’s kind of a hollowed-out shell of its former self.” – Marantz [09:29]

4. Media Capture: How Independent Journalism Gets Eroded

[17:51–21:08]

• Hungary’s Media Landscape
  • Interview with Gabor Mikloshi, former Index journalist:
    • Gradual interference, headline changes, growing self-censorship—no single “death” moment.
    • “If Fox News was every TV channel and the New York Post was every newspaper.” – Marantz [17:51]
  • Emergence of dissident outlets like Partizan (YouTube-based, run by Martin Gulyash), which operate in a gray area—visible yet tolerated, testing lines the regime prefers not to cross overtly.
  • “When I would ask someone like Martin Gulyash … Why doesn’t the regime just shut you down? He was like, well, I don’t know, how would they do that?” – Marantz [19:38]

5. Resistance and Professionalism: Advice from Hungarian Dissidents

[21:08–29:41]

• Martin Gulyash describes his activism and challenges:

  • Early political protest (arrested for attempting to throw paint on the presidential palace; turned penalty into opportunity to connect with marginalized citizens).
  • “It was one of the best things which happened to me by the state … it reinforced my belief that that type of journalism, that type of activism, is absolutely necessary in this country.” – Gulyash [20:39]
  • Strategic legislative crackdowns: pending “transparency” law threatens NGOs & media with de facto ban on foreign funding—risking their ability to operate (details [25:35–26:52]).
  • Key Advice: Don’t be consumed by anger; maintain fairness even in hostile times.
    • “Try to regulate your anger, try to regulate all of your bad emotions… If you lose your temper, … you're not providing an alternative, you are just copy-pasting the problem.” – Gulyash [24:20]

• Structural Differences: Hungary vs. U.S.

  • Gulyash argues the US is better insulated due to its wealth, civil society, unions, diverse journalism, and local/national counterweights, which Hungary lacks [28:55].

6. Denial and the “Boiling Frog” Problem

[29:47–32:48]

• Marantz notes that people living under competitive authoritarianism often maintain day-to-day life by not confronting inconvenient questions about the regime’s legitimacy.
  • “If I admit I live in an autocracy, this raises a lot of inconvenient questions.” – Unnamed Hungarian, quoted by Marantz [30:18]
  • Americans are now experiencing that defensive hesitation as democratic norms slide.
  • Liminality of journalistic norms: Willingness to risk jail for sources becomes vividly real, not abstract [31:36].

7. Historical Parallels and American Exceptionalism: How Worried Should We Be?

[32:48–38:15]

• Michael McConnell (Stanford): American democracy has weathered authoritarian instincts before (Jackson, FDR).
  • “How much can we separate—‘this is terrible’ from ‘this is unconstitutional’?” – paraphrased by Marantz [33:32]
• Steven Levitsky (“How Democracies Die”): US has stronger “democratic muscles” than Hungary or El Salvador; reversal is possible (examples: Brazil, Poland).
  • “We spent centuries as a society building up democratic muscle, and we still have a lot of that muscle left. I'm just waiting for someone to use it.” – Levitsky [34:46]
• Marantz argues that while US institutions are under strain, historical continuity, established norms, and periodic popular mobilizations offer hope.

8. Resistance: The “3.5% Rule” and the Limits of Nonviolent Protest

[43:45–51:45]

• Maria J. Stephan explains the viral “3.5% rule”—based on research with Erika Chenoweth. Historically, no regime has survived once 3.5% of the population actively (nonviolently) protested.
  • “No government has been able to stay in power when 3.5% of the population has engaged in active protest.” – Stephan [44:44]
• Successful democratic reversals (Brazil, South Korea, Serbia, the Philippines, Poland) required wide cross-sections of society: unions, faith groups, business leaders—even security forces.
  • Case studies show security defections are crucial: “When members of security forces refuse to obey orders… that tends to signify the end of autocratic regimes.” [47:49]
• Modern regimes adapt—surveillance, counter-messaging, and infiltration blunt protest effectiveness; recent movements are generally smaller and less successful than in the past.

9. Addressing American Listeners’ Anxiety

[51:45–53:02]

• Stephan emphasizes psychological warfare as a tool of autocrats. Feeling helpless is expected—but history shows that even amid “the most brutal forms of tyranny,” organized resistance and “civic muscle” can prevail.
  • “Their ability to prevail time and time again is, I think, what offers hope in what is otherwise some dark times.” – Maria J. Stephan [52:47]

Notable Quotes

• Andrew Marantz:
  • “When you dig into how democratic backsliding often works, it's very rare that it's just an edict … that says, starting tomorrow, there will be no more democracy.” [05:51]
  • “You can get away with a lot if you do it subtly without turning the heat up so fast that the proverbial frog jumps out of the water.” [06:47]
  • “There’s a building called CEU Budapest, but it’s kind of a hollowed-out shell…” [09:29]
• Martin Gulyash:
  • “If you lose your temper, … you're not providing an alternative, you are just copy-pasting the problem.” [24:20]
  • “Even if you think that their bubble is the threat on democracy, if you are creating another bubble… you are not providing an alternative, you are just copy-pasting the problem.” [24:20]
• Maria J. Stephan:
  • “No government has been able to stay in power when 3.5% of the population has engaged in active protest.” [44:44]
  • “When members of the security forces refuse to obey orders to shoot at protesters … that tends to signify the end of autocratic regimes.” [47:49]
  • “Their ability to prevail time and time again is, I think, what offers hope in what is otherwise some dark times.” [52:47]
• Steven Levitsky:
  • “We spent centuries as a society building up democratic muscle, and we still have a lot of that muscle left. I'm just waiting for someone to use it.” [34:46]

Important Timestamps

• 00:00–03:45 — Juana Philip & the shock of American democratic decline
• 03:37–06:26 — Five-point checklist of US authoritarian drift
• 08:31–10:12 — CEU’s unraveling in Hungary
• 17:51–21:08 — Gradual media capture and the rise of independent YouTube journalism in Hungary
• 24:07–25:18 — Advice for American journalists: stay fair and avoid bubble-making
• 25:35–27:04 — New Hungarian laws threatening journalism with financial penalties
• 29:47–32:48 — The psychological avoidance of facing autocracy
• 34:46–36:15 — Levitsky and the “democratic muscles” still strong in the US
• 43:45–44:44 — The “3.5% rule” and summary of resistance dynamics
• 47:49–48:56 — Security forces as the tipping point in successful movements
• 51:45–53:02 — Hopeful message to frightened and anxious Americans

Flow & Tone

The episode maintains On the Media’s signature tone: skeptical, reflective, and narratively rich, using humor and pop culture (e.g., a Star Wars: Andor allegory [41:21]) to humanize and dramatize abstract political science. Experts’ gravitas is balanced by personal and practical perspectives from those living under or resisting authoritarian systems.

Conclusion

On the Media’s episode “Is America Becoming an Autocracy?” offers a meticulously reported and thoughtfully synthesized look at democratic backsliding, media capture, and civil resistance. Through global analogies and on-the-ground reflections, it urges listeners to confront hard truths, but ultimately locates hope in civic solidarity, professional ethics, and the proven notion that organized, broad-based resistance can turn even dark tides. The message: America’s “democratic muscles” are battered—but not beyond flexing.