On The Tape with Danny Moses

Episode: Porter Collins & Vincent Daniel: What Are We Doing? Learning To Fly! Release Date: June 25, 2025

Introduction

In this engaging episode of "On The Tape," host Danny Moses welcomes his seasoned trading partners, Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel, for their fourth appearance. The trio delves deep into current market dynamics, investment strategies, and special situations affecting various sectors. Their candid discussions offer invaluable insights for both seasoned investors and newcomers alike.

1. Market Overview

Current Market Sentiment

• Porter Collins expresses apprehension about the heightened volatility in the markets:
  "[01:04] ...the level of volatility noise. Everything is just at 11 right now."
• Vincent Daniel echoes the sentiment, highlighting the unpredictability influenced by political events, particularly under the Trump administration:
  "[03:25] ...if you went long grift, you have made a bloody fortune."

Danny's Take:

• Danny underscores the efficiency of the oil market in responding to geopolitical tensions:
  "[04:00] Oil shot from 65 to 80... back to 65 again."

2. Energy Sector Analysis

Oil and Energy Stocks

• Porter Collins discusses their significant exposure to energy, particularly through Sable Offshore, and the challenges of monetizing positions amidst rapid market changes:
  "[04:16] ...the leverage is starting to creep up again."
• Vincent Daniel remarks on the challenges of owning oil stocks due to political influences and introduces uranium as a more favorable energy investment:
  "[06:03] ...uranium is the easier investment."

Uranium Investment

• Vincent Daniel highlights uranium's favorable supply-demand dynamics:
  "[06:26] ...the supply-demand dynamics in uranium are extremely favorable."
• Porter Collins discusses their investment strategy in uranium-related stocks, emphasizing quality and management:
  "[07:24] ...they know where the power is going to come from."

3. Uranium and Nuclear Energy

Bipartisan Support for Nuclear Energy

• Danny Moses notes the growing bipartisan support for nuclear energy as a clean energy source essential for AI advancements:
  "[07:09] ...nuclear is now the easiest bipartisan support."

Investment Vehicles

• Porter Collins mentions nukz ETF as a comprehensive investment in the uranium sector, acknowledging its strong chart performance:
  "[08:42] ...the chart looks great on this thing."
• Vincent Daniel discusses the benefits of ETFs for value investors, allowing exposure without the headache of individual stock valuations:
  "[09:05] ...buy the ETF and certain things in the ETF you would look at."

4. Gold and Precious Metals

Gold as a Hedge

• Vincent Daniel presents gold as a safeguard against fiscal imbalances and debasement:
  "[12:19] ...our main theme on gold is debasement and fiscal dominance."
• Porter Collins shares their strategic positions in leading gold mining companies:
  "[12:22] We expect... gold is probably going to come in."

Mining Stocks

• Vincent Daniel talks about their holdings in Agnico and Alamos as premier mining stocks:
  "[12:19] ...we have Agnico and Alamos, the big guys and really the best in class."

5. Special Situations: Pure Cycle Technologies & Sable Offshore

Pure Cycle Technologies (PCT)

• Porter Collins highlights PCT as a standout investment, focusing on its unique polypropylene recycling technology:
  "[16:11] ...$300 million CAPEX program to build out a factory."
• Vincent Daniel emphasizes PCT's solid management and growth potential:
  "[17:08] ...the dividend yield is 6.85% and they're just going to sit and buy back stock."

Sable Offshore (SOC)

• Porter Collins discusses Sable Offshore's legal challenges and optimistic outlook despite public opposition:
  "[18:41] ...they've fixed all the pipelines... preliminary injunctions."
• Vincent Daniel adds that management's strategic moves mitigate downside risks:
  "[21:08] ...his downside is $100 in a court situation."

6. Investment Strategies: Bottom-Up Investing and Short Selling

Bottom-Up Investing Approach

• Danny Moses commends the duo for their meticulous bottom-up investment research, which often uncovers opportunities overlooked by mainstream analysts:
  "[25:12] ...your patience level of the process of discovering a name."
• Vincent Daniel elaborates on their focus beyond the top 50 names, seeking out undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals:
  "[27:23] ...tremendous outsize opportunities doing it this way."

Short Selling Insights

• Porter Collins explains their cautious approach to short selling, preferring to target fundamentally weak or smaller-cap companies:
  "[25:12] ...we just look for broken business."
• Vincent Daniel shares their experience with shorting, highlighting the challenges of shorting stocks lacking solid fundamentals:
  "[30:02] ...this is really not a fundamental stock, which is sad because it's probably the best fundamental short in the game right now."

7. Federal Reserve and Macroeconomic Factors

Monetary Policy and Rate Cuts

• Porter Collins predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates due to weakening job markets and inflation indicators:
  "[32:13] ...the job market's far weaker than people think it is."
• Vincent Daniel discusses potential strategies Treasury Secretary Bessant may employ to manage increasing debt issuance:
  "[34:01] ...they have to buy it."

Stablecoins and Treasury Bonds

• Vincent Daniel explores the integration of stablecoins with Treasury securities, suggesting that the growth of stablecoins could drive demand for Treasuries:
  "[35:17] ...they have to match that, take your money and match it dollar for dollar and keep that."

8. Impact of AI on Employment and Economy

AI-Induced Job Displacement

• Vincent Daniel expresses concerns about AI leading to significant job losses, which could negatively impact consumer credit and overall economic stability:
  "[42:10] ...AI could be a huge reduction in all else being equal employment."
• Porter Collins agrees, linking declining job additions to potential economic downturns:
  "[44:43] ...job openings go down and job demand."

9. Discussion on Mr. Cooper and Rocket Companies

Merger and Acquisition Insights

• Vincent Daniel praises the merger of Rocket and Mr. Cooper, highlighting the synergy between Rocket's mortgage origination and Mr. Cooper's servicing:
  "[39:03] ...best in class in originating a mortgage and servicing a mortgage."
• Danny Moses inquires about the deal's closure and its implications for market share and regulatory scrutiny:
  "[39:46] ...the deal hasn't closed yet."

10. Banking Sector Insights: BGC and Regional Banks

BGC Partners

• Porter Collins discusses their investment in BGC Partners, emphasizing its specialization in volatile sectors like energy and commodities:
  "[40:18] ...they specialize in volatility in energy and commodities."
• Vincent Daniel notes the positive impact of leadership changes on BGC:
  "[40:18] ...Howard Lutnick away from the situation."

Regional Banks

• Danny Moses prompts a discussion on the outlook for regional and large banks:
  "[40:18] ...what about the banks?"
• Porter Collins remains neutral, focusing instead on broader economic factors like student loan repayments:
  "[41:25] ...student loan repayments are a big deal."

11. Conclusion

As the episode draws to a close, Danny Moses and his guests reflect on the current market's inflection point, underscoring the importance of vigilant, bottom-up investing amidst a landscape dominated by passive flows and market noise. They emphasize the need to stay informed, adaptable, and resilient in the face of evolving economic and geopolitical challenges.

Notable Closing Quote:

• Porter Collins wraps up with a nod to their investment philosophy:
  "[47:16] ...the dip buyer has been proven right every single time for the past 15 years."

Key Takeaways

• Market Volatility: Current high volatility urges investors to adopt a cautious, step-back approach.
• Energy Investments: Focus on oil remains, but uranium presents a promising alternative due to favorable supply-demand dynamics.
• Precious Metals: Gold continues to serve as a hedge against fiscal instability, with strategic investments in top-tier mining stocks.
• Special Situations: Companies like Pure Cycle Technologies and Sable Offshore offer unique investment opportunities despite external challenges.
• Investment Strategies: A bottom-up approach uncovers undervalued opportunities, while short selling remains a challenging but potentially rewarding strategy.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Federal Reserve policies, stablecoins, and AI's impact on employment play crucial roles in shaping the investment landscape.
• Sector Insights: Strategic mergers and specialized sectors like BGC provide avenues for targeted investments amidst broader market uncertainties.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

Disclaimer: The financial opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.