← On The Tape with Danny Moses
On The Tape with Danny Moses
Porter Collins & Vincent Daniel: What Are We Doing? Learning To Fly!
00:48:00
Loading summary
Transcript245 lines
- [00:02]
Danny Moses
In this episode of on the Tape, I welcome my former partners Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins for another edition of what are We Doing? They've been on here a few times. A big friend of the pod. We've walked through it all. We go through energy, go through the financials. We go through a lot of special situations. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Sable Offshore, Pure Cycle Technologies, the role of short selling, bottom up investings. Of course, we hit Tesla, hit a couple of risk arb plays out there like rocket. And Mr. Cooper, we talk about BGC and just their current thoughts on the market in general. So please enjoy this episode of on the Tape. We have another edition of what are we doing since the relaunch of on the Tape. This is your fourth time once with Carter Wirth. Bourbon and charts.
- [00:39]
Porter Collins
Yep.
- [00:40]
Danny Moses
Now this is the third time you guys have come on. You're on May 14th, guys. Thanks for coming in.
- [00:44]
Vincent Daniel
Thanks for having me.
- [00:45]
Danny Moses
You're enjoying the weather, Porter, straight from Texas.
- [00:46]
Porter Collins
It's great here. It's hotter here than it is in Texas.
- [00:49]
Danny Moses
All right, so the market's hot. Let's start with that.
- [00:51]
Porter Collins
Market's hot.
- [00:51]
Danny Moses
Give me, guys, your current thoughts. I know you're not trafficking in the S&P 500, but a lot's going on on the macro that you have to pay attention to that makes you decide how to look at the micro. So, Porter, maybe start with you, your thoughts on the market here and does it really matter the S&P 500 at this point?
- [01:04]
Porter Collins
I mean, I have to say I'm a little jacked up these days. It's the level of volatility noise. Everything is just is at 11 right now. And so when the volume's at 11, I like to turn it down and step back for a moment because I honestly can't process everything that's going on politically, market wise, everything. And so I think that's most people do, it's just, it's too much. We said it about Trump, right? Make volatility great again. We forgot how much volume he brought to everything.
- [01:43]
Danny Moses
So this is Spinal Tap, put it on 11 type of market, right?
- [01:48]
Porter Collins
Yes. And so I feel like nobody knows what to do. Right. And if you look at the leverage from hedge funds, the nets are high or nets are low, but the leverage is starting to creep up again. And we're sitting here saying, okay, let's dial it back to things we know, things we understand, and things we can make money. And so that's kind of what we're trying to do. There's too Much to take in, too much noise. And so I'm just trying to turn it down to this point.
- [02:19]
Vincent Daniel
Point.
- [02:20]
Danny Moses
Vincent, do you.
- [02:21]
Vincent Daniel
We walked in with two big themes walking into the year. One Porter touched on, which was volatility. The second one, which is Trump, is the straw that stirs the drink. And for the most part. And we could talk about the Fed later, I know we'll probably talk into it. That hasn't changed. Right. So in all this noise, I found myself last night, I sadly on on X, determining whether we're going to have a ceasefire as bombs were going off all over the place and futures were moving. And I said, wait a second, time out. Let's get back to what we feel the most confident about in terms of what's coming next. And that's what we try to build our portfolio on, is what do we feel most probable about. And look, the thing that has been the most probable this year by far than anything else. If you went long grift, you have made a bloody fortune. And the more freakish the grift, the more you made money. We're not really grift people, but we were very cognizant of the fact that that was gonna be front and center in the Trump administration.
- [03:25]
Porter Collins
You weren't in the Justin sun deal recently.
- [03:27]
Vincent Daniel
It was not in the Justin Srm.
- [03:28]
Porter Collins
Entertainment.
- [03:29]
Vincent Daniel
No, crazy.
- [03:30]
Porter Collins
It's entertainment.
- [03:31]
Danny Moses
So just for instance, so we know what's going on in the Middle East. It's been going on for years. Obviously it got pretty intense the last few days. We've all been tracking oil outside of the tensions in the Middle east for a long time. That's a big input into energy stocks. Obviously. Oil shot from 65 to 80. It's amazing how efficient the market is and how the oil market is probably the one that knows the most about what's actually really happening. And it came in before anything else that happened. So we're back to 65 again. To me, with an energy. Nothing's changed in terms of the stuff that you're looking at within the US right in the onshore, the offshore. And I caveat that by, by saying I think that oil prices moving up like they just did gave a re. Underwriting moment potentially for the sector to a degree to say, hold on a second, I don't own any of this, these portfolio managers. So me, I feel like we're not going to pull back as much as oil has. Much of the stocks have run. Do you agree with that?
- [04:17]
Porter Collins
Yeah, listen, I think on the last podcast we talked about we had a big energy exposure. Part of it's driven by our. Our Sable Offshore position, and we have a bunch of positions around it. You know, I wish I was smart enough to sell more. You know, Vin and I actually talked on Sunday morning, and we were like, you know, I think we might have a window where we can monetize some of this stuff.
- [04:41]
Danny Moses
But you Taco, not our.
- [04:43]
Porter Collins
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So anyway, you know, it happened so quick, and I think Vinnie and I rightly assumed that the government was, you know, they can't. They did this most coordinated assault ever. Planes in, planes out, and they were just going to let oil free flow to the markets. Like, let's have free markets handle oil. No, they were selling the crap out of oil futures. And then when. When Trump had his good news, it just. It just kind of cascaded upon that. And so, you know, I wish we were able to monetize some of our other trades around energy, but here we are, and oil's down again. And I think we underwrote them for when the market was on lows. And so I kind of still like a lot of these longs. And I actually think that the contrarian here is probably buying oil.
- [05:33]
Danny Moses
Well, Sable Offshore is a special sick.
- [05:34]
Porter Collins
Yes.
- [05:34]
Danny Moses
Really has nothing to do. I mean, yes, of course it has to do with the price of oil.
- [05:37]
Vincent Daniel
And we prefer idiosyncratic names within underlying themes like oil. But let's talk about energy for a second, because I think there's a more probable definitive investment that's out there in energy, and that's uranium. Now, why do I say that? One Trump the other day basically tweeted, or truth socialed out, I want oil down. Get oil down. Sell it. Right. And sure. Shit.
- [06:04]
Danny Moses
And don't you dare for an oil company.
- [06:05]
Vincent Daniel
Correct. Sure, that happened. Okay. So it's really difficult to actually own oil because you're going against the grain. The person, the straw that stirs a drink does not want it up. Not saying you can't go up, but. But he's going to be out there every day if oil goes up 5.
- [06:19]
Porter Collins
Just kind of like shorting markets. When Trump says buy the market, it's kind of hard to, you know correctly.
- [06:24]
Danny Moses
But you'll still try. Yeah, go ahead.
- [06:26]
Vincent Daniel
We are what we are. Right. But there is an energy source that he does believe in. He has created executive orders. He has wanted to increase production in the US and that's uranium. So in my opinion, that's the easier investment. And quite frankly, that's the investment I believe in. Because the supply demand dynamics in uranium are, are extremely favorable. There's just not enough supply for the production that's coming in the next five.
- [06:52]
Danny Moses
It is amazing that nuclear. Sorry. It is amazing how it's become bipartisan support now. One, it's clean energy, right. And you're going to need it for AI. So you got, everybody's kind of aligned. You can't pick a lot of things that everyone's aligned on. And Governor Hochul just signed to build a new plant for the first time. Right. There's only been four plants built since 1991, is that correct? Four new nuclear plants built.
- [07:10]
Vincent Daniel
I think something like you might be right. It might be less than or less.
- [07:12]
Danny Moses
I don't know what it's. But I think on a net basis, maybe on a net basis. Correct. Because some have closed. But yeah. Porter, share your thoughts on and the best way to play it. Some people just play uranium, some people play the power producers, some people play the utilities. How do you guys play in that uranium trade?
- [07:24]
Porter Collins
Well, here comes the hard part, right? So you know, we've owned CCJ for a long time. Ccj, if you look at the chart, people are gonna be like, I can't own this and we can't buy it here. I mean, stocks are gone crazy. And you know, I think a lot of the, you know, I listened to Brad Gertrude's podcast and they're talking about how, how they play it, right? How the tech guy, CO2 has been playing it and they've been playing it by I think, Constellation Energy and some of these, you know, because they know that's where the power is going to come from. They know that's, you know, and incrementally you can see, I think natural gas is probably a great way to play that as well. So between nuclear and natural gas, that's probably the best way to play AI. And it's, you know, I think Vinnie and I are bigger converts over the past six months to AI. Like, you know, just in my life, you know, when Chat GPT came out, we, we use it a couple times, you know, a week, a day. And now I use it all the time.
- [08:23]
Danny Moses
You know, our Good friend Lawrence McDonald, friends call him Larry, has been on this trade as well. He was on, on the tape a few weeks ago and he pitched this range, nuclear range, Nuclear Renaissance, right? This nukz. And to your point, I'm not a big fan of ETFs, but in this case, to your point, it kind of encompasses all of it. The chart looks great on this thing. So that's a name we've been looking at.
- [08:42]
Vincent Daniel
But I know and the beauty of an ETF from time to time for particularly for value idiots like ourselves is you can buy the ETF and certain things in the ETF you would look at and from a valuation perspective you might vomit. But because you bought the ETF you don't think about it as much. So you have the. And I agree with Larry on that point. You have the underlying theme but maybe some of the names in that theme and I'm thinking like oklo or okay.
- [09:06]
Danny Moses
There'S a new one coming public and.
- [09:07]
Vincent Daniel
There'S a new one coming public and smr I'm probably not going to buy them. But if you have the underlying theme and by the way because those names captured the retail total addressable market, they don't go after our, our you know, SmithCap mining names. They go after these names. At least you capture the upside. So I kind of agree with Larry.
- [09:29]
Danny Moses
Larry was talking about how, you know, you have a $27 trillion basically NASDAQ 100 names and you're chasing basically 2 trillion. So if the tech bros are right on AI and listen, every day that goes by there's a new capex deal, there's more money coming in. It's hard to say it's not happening. So if energy really is going to actually supply all of this power then you have to own all the energy. Nat Gas obviously is a big one too and you know you're going to.
- [09:54]
Porter Collins
We actually had a call with oclo I want to say six months ago with management and at that point it was Vinny and I and a friend of ours and like no one was knocking on their door. It was maybe a year ago and no one was knocking on the door. Now it's the hottest knocking at the door. Now it's the hottest stock imaginable and you know, we played it for I think 20, 30% sold it.
- [10:15]
Vincent Daniel
No, no, no, no, no, no, no. You're not giving us credit. No, seriously on this one I think we played it at $8. We sold it at about 16 and we felt like we were absolute champs because it doubled and I think it for bagged after that. Yes, that's good.
- [10:29]
Danny Moses
Listen, you never, you never go broke by selling early obviously for gain. So you just mentioned mining. I was just going to move this along because we get a lot go for the gold miners. I know you want to talk about copper a little bit today, but gold as we sit here, you know, it's really interesting so the dollar's weaker, obviously there's geopolitics, you know, the volume got turned down a little bit on it. So gold comes in, I get, I think every sell off and go to buying opportunity. I think you guys would agree the miners still don't even equate to anything near where the price of gold is. So talk to me on copper, talk to me on gold. How you guys playing that right now?
- [10:57]
Porter Collins
Well, it's very interesting today that the dollar is down and I mean I think that there is more substitution outside. I mean we've always talked about the difference between the reserve currency and the reserve asset and the whole thing was like, well I buy gold. It's, you know, the dollar's reserve currency status is never going away and like you're missing the point. As you can see the reserve asset has massively shifted towards gold and now it's bigger than the euro and people are just selling dollars as the reserve asset. And that's a bigger problem for Treasuries longer term. But I just think this train continues and you'll probably by the time we exit the Trade will be $10,000. That's how I think about it with the miners.
- [11:40]
Danny Moses
You guys, which ones are you playing right now and are you looking at copper or no?
- [11:43]
Vincent Daniel
Yes, we'll get into that. And just to add to what he said in terms of gold, our kind of main theme on gold is debasement and fiscal dominance. That's it. So we expect because of the reduction in geopolitical risk gold is probably going to come in. But at the end of the day if we don't fisk our fiscal imbalances and we're not, we can't, we're, we're like expose. Danny, if you remember that one taking me to the point of we're at the point of no return, right? We, there's nothing we can do fiscally without sending this, this country into a recession and the fact that we pivoted.
- [12:20]
Porter Collins
So quickly is unbelievable.
- [12:22]
Vincent Daniel
But so, so then we turn to the miners and right like our biggest mining positions and still to this day have been Agnico and Alamos, the big guys and really the best in class. We haven't really added anything incremental to those names because they've worked. I mean if you take a look at the charts there, I don't want to go out here and recommend you have to buy Agnico. You're going to look at the chart and you can say thanks Vinnie from nothing, right.
- [12:46]
Danny Moses
However you've been on here many times talking about correct just to be fair.
- [12:49]
Vincent Daniel
So but now we've started to try and dip below cap but also trying to gather, gain or keep and maintain the quality of the underlying management team. And there like a lot of the stuff we do when we don't know we outsource it to our best friends and ask and then we start the process there. That plus we also look for for other things. So that's how we got to Dundee Precious Metals ticker is DPM on Toronto exchange. We got to CDE through Silvercrest and the like. And Porter always has his smaller pueblos that he always loved. One of our good friends shout out to Chris Ritchie who is the former.
- [13:27]
Danny Moses
CEO or anybody see Richie.
- [13:29]
Vincent Daniel
Anybody know why Chris Richie bought this name?
- [13:31]
Porter Collins
But Chris Ritchie used to cover us.
- [13:33]
Vincent Daniel
I don't know if you remember and he was the CEO of Silvercrest that got bought by Core. He introduced us to the Core CFO who was buying stock way back when it was $5, right? And Chris has gotten to know what we like, right? He knows our personality. And I go, I go Chris what do you got? Do you got anything in mining land? He goes I got a copper name for you. I go give it to me. And he goes it's small Vinnie so don't get mad at me. It's a little small market.
- [13:57]
Danny Moses
Why am I getting mad?
- [13:58]
Vincent Daniel
US$240 million. It's called Amerigo ARG on the Canadian exchange. On the Canadian exchange they basically have exclusive rights to the tailings which is the excess. There's a better word for it but I'm not going to use it. From the largest mine underground mine in Chile in the world, it's about 7 to 10%. The beauty of that is that there's no capex. It's just straight out cash flows. And here's the biggest thing, management's intent, this is an important thing is to pay down what little debt they have left. It's not really hyper levered and just simply buy back stock and pay the dividend. Currently right now the dividend yield is 6.85% and they're just going to sit and buy back stock. They have this contract, this exclusive contract with them until 2037. But if you really think about what the excess cash flows are going to go to and of course no one knows this name. So I could sit here, this is sort of a case study right where I could shout out about a name on a podcast and even when they see it and look at it, no one's going to buy it. And I'm. And in a way, I'm sort of hoping they don't, because the lower the stock price, the more compounding they're going to do in terms of an increase in book value.
- [15:08]
Porter Collins
Like when I pitch glass house, no one's going to go buy glass.
- [15:11]
Vincent Daniel
Do you know, I'm not pitching it.
- [15:13]
Porter Collins
It's fine.
- [15:14]
Danny Moses
You're not going to mention it today. All right, so let's. Let's move on to some other stuff. So we did the copper, we did the gold, we did uranium. We've done some energy. Let's. Let's keep moving. And now Porter obviously sends out a tweet yesterday telling everyone we're going to be on this thing. So we got like 50 questions that came to him to try to hit some of those. All right, we're going to hit them anyway. Okay, so I know tonight you're going to be having drinks, right, With Sable Offshore. You just mentioned it before. Soc. I don't know if you want to get into specifically the story about what's happening. I know it's within the energy, but it's a special set. So do any updates there? And also I'll just throw in pct since they're both kind of special situations. Been some big news there as well.
- [15:45]
Porter Collins
Well, PCT has been. That's probably one of our shining moments this year. Aside from the gold miners, it is obviously a plastic recycling company that recycles polypropylene. Only company in the world that does it. That recycles polypropylene down to the molecular level.
- [16:03]
Danny Moses
And that program didn't get canceled somehow? No, I want to make sure.
- [16:07]
Porter Collins
Okay, we're good.
- [16:08]
Danny Moses
Okay.
- [16:08]
Porter Collins
And so just recently, they announced that they've.
- [16:12]
Danny Moses
This is pure cycle technology.
- [16:14]
Porter Collins
Just recently, they did a Denny's worst least favorite word, a capital raise.
- [16:20]
Danny Moses
Yeah, but with the two people involved, you know, one's my hero, the other one's a good friend. So to me, that validates Stand directly. No. Is one of my heroes. Rob Poly's a good fight at Samlin Capital. Sorry. So, yes, when those two brains are together in the same thing, that's not something I'd want to have a short interest of 30% of.
- [16:38]
Porter Collins
I don't understand why the short interest is still 30%. Anyway, they announced that they are doing this $300 million CAPEX program to build out a factory in Augusta, Georgia, in Antwerp and in Thailand. And so it's one of these companies. It's a one of one company that we're involved in very few growth stories. This is one of our few growth stories. And they can produce right now something like £100 million. And this new CapEx program is going to build it out to a billion pounds of recycled plastic. Right.
- [17:15]
Danny Moses
What does that equate to into earnings or EBITDA?
- [17:18]
Vincent Daniel
It equates to, according to them in their presentation, 600 million of EBITDA by 2030.
- [17:23]
Danny Moses
That's not that long off. And by the way, you've played Augusta because we know where his connection you can. We haven't played Augusta. I've been to Augusta. Do you think that if I buy some shares that I could possibly get an invite to Augusta? Or better yet, is Vinnie even going to get the look to play Augusta?
- [17:37]
Porter Collins
Zero chance.
- [17:38]
Danny Moses
Zero.
- [17:38]
Vincent Daniel
Zero.
- [17:39]
Porter Collins
Less than zero.
- [17:39]
Danny Moses
Tarski. All right, so you, but by the.
- [17:42]
Porter Collins
Way, like if you think about like you know, a lay's potato chip bag, that, that's, that's plastic, right? That, that's from petroleum. You could see a world where just a lot of this stuff, candy wrappers, yogurt films, all this stuff is recycled plastic. And right now there's just very little of it.
- [18:02]
Danny Moses
By the way, I wasn't kidding when I said is there anything that's gonna get canceled at the US Government where there's no more any type of this stuff that's gonna happen.
- [18:08]
Vincent Daniel
The good news is this is US Based manufacturer. So they are at least.
- [18:12]
Danny Moses
That's a good point.
- [18:13]
Vincent Daniel
In many respects it is probably right that this would have done better, at least initially on the Kamala Harris. But it is a US based manufacturer. So I think that's me.
- [18:24]
Porter Collins
Listen, you know, I am an environmentalist at heart. You know, I want to see more of this stuff recycled and put into good.
- [18:32]
Danny Moses
Do your friends in Texas know that you're. Yeah, I know you keep certain things from them. You do. All right. Do you want to hit on Sable offshore? Just a couple things. Give us the current because that's another special situation.
- [18:42]
Porter Collins
It's one of our favorite positions and you know, it's this.
- [18:46]
Danny Moses
I just want to be clear. You're an environmentalist on pct. Yeah, drill, baby, drill off the coast of Santa Barbara. No, I just want to make sure that I got this correct, that I'm consistent.
- [18:53]
Vincent Daniel
Says consistency is a bugaboo of the weak minded.
- [18:56]
Danny Moses
Go ahead.
- [18:57]
Porter Collins
That's right.
- [18:57]
Danny Moses
All right.
- [18:58]
Porter Collins
And so you know, they had this, this platform in federal waters off the coast of California. And Exxon going back a decade ago had a spill. The CEO Jim Flores buys it from him in a spac four letter word. And in the thought process that they can independently get it back up to speed, get the pipelines, everything going. And they've done a great job of. They've fixed all the pipelines. Everything's done. And the problem now is a problem all along has been fighting with California Coastal Commission and the Environmental Defense Fund, which. So everyone in California hates them. Oprah. Who else?
- [19:43]
Vincent Daniel
Elaine Seinfeld.
- [19:44]
Porter Collins
Elaine from Seinfeld. Julie Louise Dreyfus, Jane Fonda. They've all. They've all come out against like, you know, Sable Offshore and everything like that. They've recently lost two lawsuits. One was. It's very. I'll keep it short. One was the California Coastal Commission to Sable and they got a preliminary injunction against them. And the second one was the Environmental Defense Fund against their primary regulator, which is the fire marshal. And so both of them are preliminary injunctions. We seem to think that they'll get through the regular hurdles, either through normal courts, either through the government taking over the pipelines or just tinkering the fuel off the platforms eventually. And so I think that for us, at $21, I don't think there's a ton of downside here because there's a lot of optionality in terms of a takings clause, which. So Benny laughs at me, but I think my downside is $100 in a court situation or just naturally the stock, if they do pump oil and the management says in April or August 1st in a public document that that's going to be $40.
- [21:08]
Danny Moses
And so is it, Is it fun to be like, tweeting with Phil Mickelson? I mean, he's a shareholder, too. It's never wrong to be on that side. Whatever.
- [21:16]
Porter Collins
He's long, by the way, Phil's a very intelligent guy. It's been fun to get to know him. And he knows the CEO, Jim, from a board he's on together. And they obviously, he just loves the asset.
- [21:32]
Vincent Daniel
And so it actually makes me angry. And you'll get this.
- [21:35]
Danny Moses
I love it because his lefty swing is better than ours.
- [21:38]
Vincent Daniel
A little bit.
- [21:39]
Danny Moses
Yeah, just a touch.
- [21:41]
Vincent Daniel
A little bit.
- [21:41]
Danny Moses
Oh, it's just his long game that we're talking about.
- [21:43]
Vincent Daniel
And he can talk stocks like we can.
- [21:46]
Porter Collins
He can.
- [21:46]
Vincent Daniel
He can. So, like, like, imagine being able to talk slides like we can, whether we're right or wrong and all of a sudden just rip it. 300 down the fairway.
- [21:54]
Danny Moses
Yeah. All right.
- [21:56]
Porter Collins
Amazingly, you know, intellectual and competent about the whole thing.
- [22:00]
Danny Moses
Smart guy. For sure. All right, Fanny and Freddy, let's just keep moving around. These are all kind of special sits. You guys are still on the preferreds, I assume, but absolutely. And the common.
- [22:07]
Vincent Daniel
No common a little bit, but it's more of a speculation.
- [22:11]
Danny Moses
Give us the.
- [22:11]
Vincent Daniel
So it just comes down to again, follow what Trump wants. Right. And some of this stuff takes time. He has mentioned and referenced that he would like the GSEs to come out of conservatorship. They now are starting to get to capital levels where it's possible. Which way back when? In 2016 that wasn't the case. They made Bill Pulte head of the fhfa and more importantly, one of Eric Trump's friends was put on the board of Fannie Mae. So again, that's the tell.
- [22:41]
Danny Moses
Follow the grift.
- [22:42]
Vincent Daniel
Follow the grift. Just follow the grift.
- [22:44]
Danny Moses
Yeah.
- [22:45]
Vincent Daniel
And now follow the grift combined with the fact this is probably the most important part is this is a way to monetize the US Government's balance sheet in the form of that is residing in either warrants, equity or senior prefs. And we all know this country needs a heck of a lot of cash to pay for all the crap that we have. This is one of the means to do it.
- [23:03]
Danny Moses
I want to say this one more time for people that are out there. So the preferreds par is 25. Fannie Mae prefers a trading around 14. I know that philosophically speaking and maybe mathematically speaking, if the commons are worth a penny, the preferred should be worth 25 bucks. Is that, is that fair to say? Maybe there's a slight.
- [23:19]
Vincent Daniel
Academically, academically, yes.
- [23:21]
Danny Moses
But I guess my point is that you can own the preferreds and it's a never expiring call option here. As far as I'm concerned, at 14 bucks a risk reward, you're basically saying this right? At 50%, maybe 55% chance that this thing's going to happen. And I think you guys believe it's much more than that. Is that fair to say?
- [23:34]
Vincent Daniel
Yeah, I think worst case for us is that it's a sucker's value trap Y and similar to 2016, nothing happens and it goes back down to 10 or nine or eight. But by that time they're going to have enough capital where they probably should be out of conservatorship anyway.
- [23:48]
Porter Collins
And to be fair, we're sucker value investors anyway, so we own a lot of. Most people will look at value traps and say, oh, you know, I don't think it's worth a lot, but the way we underwrite stuff Is that when we originally bought the Fannie Mae prefers was a lot lower and we didn't think there was much downside but a lot of upside. Right. And we put together a portfolio, a lot of stocks that very little downside. We think underwriting to a strong balance sheet, nice fundamentals. So little downside, big upside.
- [24:19]
Danny Moses
So let's talk about that because one of the other questions we got on Twitter was obviously what do you think about fundamental bottom up investing? Which is really what you guys have been doing. And on the flip side of that is what I think is short selling. We're going to get into some of those obviously shorts now. But you guys do bottom up work. Sometimes it takes a while for anyone else to notice, right. Because they're not covered by any analysts. Everyone's focused on the top 50 names that are kind of out there. So your patience level of the process of discovering a name, working on the name, speaking with management. Right. And start and getting to know and then talking to other investors that might be like minded. Talk, talk me through that a little bit about maybe give an example of a recent name. You just mentioned copper, you know, the copper mine is a name. But there's other examples maybe of how you guys, you know, kind of perform your process. And I'll just say this, that the opportunity set with, you know, I'm not saying how bad research is on Wall street, but how compromised it really is. 75% are buys, you know, 20% of holds and 5% are sells. We understand that game. But therein lies the opportunity to write for names that aren't trafficked.
- [25:12]
Porter Collins
I mean, I'll touch the shorting part. Shorting is very difficult. I mean, you know, the funny thing is Vinnie and I have actually had one short file bankruptcy this year, which was, which was, I won't talk about it but like those are, those are, those are nice, right? Those are, you know, and so that does happen. And we like to short really broken. Sometimes the smaller cap companies, they don't get the same lifeline that larger caps do. And so when things really go down or the debt's too much, that's where we really like to find our sweet spot. I just think if you're a normal course hedge fund, they're not looking for necessarily zeros, they're looking for hey, how can I hedge my book? How can I go down 20% or how can I create noise to have the stock go down and all that kind of stuff. We don't really do that. We just look for broken business. We Keep it simple, right? Everything we do try to keep simple.
- [26:07]
Vincent Daniel
I would just say on the long side, we speak about this ad nauseam. You had Mike Green on talk about the impact passives and target date funds have had on it. And I really am a big believer of his analysis. And as a result of his analysis, as well as what we see in the big large hedge funds, I call them volume targeting funds, the market's different, right? It just is. So the majority of the market that we're looking at, I don't even really think about. What do you think about the market? I kind of laugh.
- [26:35]
Danny Moses
Tom Petty.
- [26:36]
Vincent Daniel
Well, and basically I was going to give a quote from Tom Petty which is, sorry, Danny, but the good old days may not return and the rocks might melt and the sea may burn. I, I think it's truly. This time is different. And the analysis. What? Yeah, it's learning to fly, learning to.
- [26:57]
Danny Moses
Buy, but ain't got wings. Learning to buy. Right. Ain't got the wings coming in short is the hardest thing.
- [27:04]
Vincent Daniel
And so like the analysis you do.
- [27:06]
Danny Moses
Thanks.
- [27:06]
Vincent Daniel
Yeah, the analysis you do on those names that are impacted by those dynamics is, Is less useful, I won't say useless. Less useful than where we play now, where we play, there are no fucking flows, right? There's no one there. So you have to do a lot of work.
- [27:24]
Porter Collins
That's the case in emerging markets and, you know, everywhere, like anywhere besides The S&P 500, you know, that they get all the flows.
- [27:32]
Vincent Daniel
So I could hear someone in the back, which is probably Dan Nathan saying, well, why the hell do you do this? Right. Right. And the reality is the reason why we do it is because we see tremendous outsize opportunities doing it this way. And we also kind of like to live uncomfortable lives. So. So. And we don't mind doing it. So in that regard, we just feel so long as we're good at this, as long as we continue to do well at this, that's where we think the opportunities lie. It's tough shit. Takes time, you need duration. But the opportunity set is plentiful. And then you have to really, as, as Porter said, this is one of the issues we have, is avoiding the value traps. That's the important thing. Because we know stocks can sit there no matter how cheap they are. They could sit there for four or five years and not do anything.
- [28:17]
Danny Moses
So let's talk about one of those shorts that's, you know, currently in the news. It's in the news every day. We don't talk about every time you come on to Be fair.
- [28:23]
Porter Collins
But we didn't talk about last time.
- [28:24]
Danny Moses
Tesla, which I know it's down a little bit today, it's obviously run up on the launching in Austin of the Robotaxis. Whatever. What are you guys currently doing in it? I know you're never going to be big on the short side just because you just can't. Because it doesn't trade on fundamentals. But that's part of the other problem is shorting stocks that don't trade on.
- [28:38]
Porter Collins
It's not a stock, it's a meme coin. Like it doesn't trade on fundamentals. Like the car business is awful. The Robotaxi business is terrible. That doesn't exist actually. And so there is, there's no fundamentals.
- [28:52]
Danny Moses
So what do you think it is out there? Who's buying the stock then? I mean, obviously we have daily call option buying. No, I'm being, I'm not, I'm not. Honestly, there's not a rhetorical. I'm just literally saying who in their right mind is just getting swept up in the ETFs and the QS and the spies and it just goes up because of that. Because for that stock to have been up yesterday on a horrible launch, Austin, like, listen, you can play behavioral finance one on one. You can do a lot of stuff. None of it really makes sense, Danny.
- [29:16]
Vincent Daniel
You know my people don't do therapy.
- [29:18]
Danny Moses
Yeah, well, you kill people if they do that. Yeah.
- [29:22]
Vincent Daniel
Yesterday I needed a therapy session. Yeah, right. Was it yesterday? Yeah, it was yesterday.
- [29:26]
Porter Collins
Yeah. So what, how do I. How do I fix that? Vinnie.
- [29:28]
Vincent Daniel
What? He shorted. Right, Right. So. So he knows Vinnie was Apple play.
- [29:32]
Danny Moses
And it really takes a lot for.
- [29:34]
Porter Collins
Vinnie to get our friend. Eric and Vinnie are sitting there talking and they're like, I don't understand what's going on here. Like, it makes no sense.
- [29:39]
Danny Moses
Yeah, yeah.
- [29:40]
Vincent Daniel
This was supposed. So the only way we deducted it. So you asked, to answer your question, obviously retail, there's a big retail name and, and retail doesn't really have valuation as a factor in their analysis as much as we do. Right. But I think there's something more. I do. I think there are quants that have figured this, that have figured out. Jimmy. No, Jimmy. The options market.
- [30:03]
Danny Moses
Yeah.
- [30:03]
Vincent Daniel
Knowing that they could take advantage of panic of broker and brokers and that they need to true up their books. And as a result, this, as Porter says, is really not a fundamental stock, which is sad because it's probably the best fundamental short in the game right now.
- [30:20]
Porter Collins
I think most of that move Yesterday was in 15 minutes. And it was all like option related.
- [30:23]
Danny Moses
You know, it's amazing is that when I read the analyst reports that are, you know, bullish on it and so forth, they're not really point out. So they point out what Tesla's doing. Never do you hear about, you know, yeah, you hear about Waymo, but you don't have this company way W a Y V E which is already in cities deploying, it's invested by Nvidia's in their Ubers. And all these guys, all these people are, you know, investors in this name. Yet here it comes.
- [30:44]
Vincent Daniel
And it's a better technology and it works, Danny. Now you get me work, you get me angry again. There was also a law passed in Texas which is going to prohibit the use of robo taxis if they're not level four, level five, which was passed. So here we are sitting, we're short Tesla. Here we are sitting there thinking we're.
- [31:02]
Porter Collins
Not sure a lot of Tesla, right? But it's more sport.
- [31:04]
Vincent Daniel
But it's more sport. And we were praying to get paid, right? Thinking we were going to get paid. And it actually does the exact opposite. And you, you, that was the perfect. And by the way, that's why you.
- [31:15]
Porter Collins
Don'T short stocks, by the way.
- [31:16]
Vincent Daniel
By the. This is why you don't stocks. And people could say, no, no, Vinnie, you missed it. The robo taxi thing was a success. If the robo taxi thing was a success, Uber would have been down. It was not down, it was up. Right. So as a result, I think this is just more the market structure and you have to respect it.
- [31:35]
Porter Collins
And then it's just the Cult of Elon, right. And people convinced he's a genius, convinced he can do no wrong. You know, I think he made a big error what he did with Trump. He even admitted he had made an error. So we'll see.
- [31:48]
Danny Moses
All right, let's shift now back to the macro a little bit before I go to some more names. And just the Federal Reserve in general, treasury besant stuff that's going on there. And also Vinny, obviously want to get to the stablecoin market since you've covered Visa and MasterCard your entire career. And that's a flavor. But let's start with the kind of the Fed here. Porter, you and I were going at it a little bit Twitter yesterday. Cow. She's odds, you know, 14. The pal doesn't make it to the end of 2025, forget his term, which is May 2026. I love. We're going to wager error.
- [32:14]
Porter Collins
One dollar.
- [32:14]
Danny Moses
One. One dollar? You're gonna give me 100 to one or just one dollar? Even money. Why would I do that? Why would I do that?
- [32:20]
Vincent Daniel
Trading places bet.
- [32:20]
Danny Moses
Okay, but listen, I don't know whether he's gonna. All I know is he's gonna keep facing pressure and whether he should.
- [32:25]
Porter Collins
There's no way he resigns, okay?
- [32:28]
Danny Moses
Or forced out.
- [32:29]
Porter Collins
No way.
- [32:29]
Vincent Daniel
You're not gonna give him odds.
- [32:32]
Danny Moses
You said zero chance. The odds are seven.
- [32:34]
Porter Collins
We'll bet like. We'll bet like Kalsi. If, if, if, if you win, you win. You win 87 cents. If I win, I win 14.
- [32:42]
Danny Moses
Fine. We'll be done on that.
- [32:43]
Porter Collins
Whatever.
- [32:43]
Danny Moses
Okay. What he's doing. So he testified today in front of the House. He's in front of the Senate tomorrow. Of course there's a chance that he can cut. There's always a chance he can cut. In July, I believe they will be cutting rates this year. Cutting the Fed fund futures didn't really change that much today. It's like a 24% chance of a cut in July. It doesn't really matter to me. Matters to me more is the long end of the curve, which they don't control. Right. So that's more Besant and what he's going to be doing with treasury issuance and so forth. So, you know, you can talk about Powell if you want. I think it's nothing. I mean, I think he's going to cut at some point. It doesn't matter if it's July or September.
- [33:13]
Porter Collins
I actually think he's going to cut because the job market's far weaker than people think it is. And, you know, the way inflation is calculated, it's a lot of rents and rents are rolling down. House prices are weak, housing's weak. And so I, I think that's one of. That's the reason he fundamentally cuts.
- [33:28]
Danny Moses
So if that's the case.
- [33:29]
Porter Collins
Yep.
- [33:29]
Danny Moses
Are stocks overvalued? Because you're basically saying that it's. If the economic weakness. S P500. If it does trade on earnings, which, you know, so does.
- [33:38]
Porter Collins
I'm just saying, you know, is the.
- [33:40]
Danny Moses
Weakness not in the AI stocks. It may not be.
- [33:41]
Porter Collins
It may be even care. Like they probably didn't care. Like, you know, we just talked about how robo taxis are going to take over the world. I mean, if all the cars are robo taxis. I mean, AI is here. We're going to need more chips.
- [33:53]
Danny Moses
Many thoughts, Besant. Treasury, what he has to do, what's in front of him and then Also that'll roll that into stablecoins and the use of Treasuries to back these coins.
- [34:01]
Vincent Daniel
Well, I think we're going to get a big old bag of tricks from, from Treasury Secretary Bessant in terms of. Because we always ask the question like, like who's going to buy all this debt? Right. Because it's coming. And if we, we have to raise the debt ceiling, if we're going to pass this big beautiful bill which we did not talk about, but we're going to have to raise this.
- [34:21]
Danny Moses
Well, that's part of the bill. So. Yeah.
- [34:22]
Vincent Daniel
And once you raise it, there's going to be issuance. Right. We haven't had net issuance. And once you do that, there's going to be pressure on rates and they're going to. People need to buy it. So I think Besson's trying to figure out a bunch of ways and means for people to buy it. One is the slr, which they're going to need more than the SLR for the banks. For banks to buy it. This other thing is this neat little concept called stablecoin. Right. Which is this alternative new payment system. Yeah, yeah. It actually is not a Ponzi. It's not a Ponzi as much as it is. It's a fixed currency pick. Yeah, that's exactly what it is. Right. And in order for you to put money in a. Whether it's tether or USDC or other stablecoin, the processor or the administrator has to match that, take your money and match it dollar for dollar and keep that. So as this grows, they have to buy gilt, like securities, which includes Treasuries and the like.
- [35:17]
Porter Collins
So which is Treasury.
- [35:19]
Vincent Daniel
One of the reasons. And probably some other stuff, maybe gold. We'll see. One of the reasons why they were so hell bent, you know, it's amazing. We could pass nothing in Congress yet. The Genius act is going to fly right through bipartisan support, 70 to 80%. Well, why is. Because they got some damn good lobbyists. And if that happens and no one.
- [35:41]
Porter Collins
Really knows what the hell it is anyway, so.
- [35:43]
Vincent Daniel
I agree. Well, but you just had an ipo which, which is. Which is open up people's eyes. Circle crc.
- [35:49]
Danny Moses
I think you've taken maybe a small shot on that one.
- [35:51]
Porter Collins
I mean, the market cap's now bigger than the entire circulation of the usdc.
- [35:55]
Danny Moses
That does. Don't let facts get in the way of a good story. Please continue. What it means for Visa Master.
- [35:59]
Porter Collins
No, but.
- [36:00]
Vincent Daniel
Well, what it means initially is that there might be an incremental buyer of Treasuries that Besant needs. Now, if you speak to growth people, their perspective is almost the entire payment system is now going to be on the stablecoin system. And stablecoin is going to take market share from other payment systems such as Visa and MasterCard.
- [36:19]
Porter Collins
It might.
- [36:20]
Vincent Daniel
It might.
- [36:21]
Porter Collins
It's going to replace it.
- [36:22]
Danny Moses
No.
- [36:22]
Vincent Daniel
It's a bit of a stretch, right. Because there's a lot of nuances associated with stablecoins as I'm doing more work. But that is the reason why Visa and MasterCard are down right now over the last two, three weeks.
- [36:34]
Danny Moses
And you don't see that as. So if you're an Amazon or Walmart and you want to start issuing a Stable coin and offer your customers a either discounted price versus what it would be if you use Visa Master, it's really just a prepaid gift card or something like that to a degree. Or you can use, quote Walmart, I don't even know. But I'm just saying, like, I just can't believe that we've gone in four or five years from tether being a complete unverified thing. I'm.
- [36:58]
Vincent Daniel
Which it was.
- [36:59]
Danny Moses
Was to actually growing into something that's legitimate over a period of time. That's hard to believe.
- [37:03]
Vincent Daniel
That shows. It shows you the power of the grid, right?
- [37:05]
Danny Moses
It really does. It really does. So you're not currently. I know you guys have been and out of bitcoin using the etf, IBIT or whatever you might be doing. I don't know where you guys are at this point.
- [37:13]
Porter Collins
Bitcoin's a hard one for me. I much prefer gold over bitcoin. I think in the near term the flows into bitcoin are going to keep going. When the flows stop, it's over. There's nothing else but flows. But I think that the central banks are going to keep buying gold.
- [37:35]
Danny Moses
Gold.
- [37:35]
Porter Collins
I think that, you know, we, we have a nice palladium size in palladium or. Or platinum, which is I think now a substitute for gold. So if you go and get a jewelry. Right. Much cheaper to buy a platinum ring than a gold.
- [37:49]
Danny Moses
Or a lab diamond.
- [37:50]
Porter Collins
Yeah, or a lab diamond. Platinum and a lab diamond. So there you go.
- [37:53]
Danny Moses
There you go. Platinum in a lab diamond setting. Go up. Perfect quarter.
- [37:56]
Porter Collins
You see, that's great.
- [37:57]
Danny Moses
Tell my wife what she should be making these days. Actually, she's making that. All right, so let's go into a couple other names I want to get into here, which are Mr. Cooper, which you guys, when that deal was announced that Rocket was going to buy Cooper. I talked to you guys that day and this a few months ago and, and you know, it's amazing to me. One of the things in this world and I know there's risk ARB funds that are out there that are supposed to be putting on. It feels like there's not a lot of activity, especially some on the smaller scale. It's not a small deal per se, but small. So we talked about it and you can't even get a position or you could do it on the long side. There was a. It was like a. Something like a 37% arb that if you just went long, Mr. Cooper and the deal were to close. So the stock deal that if Rocket did nothing else, that's what you make. It's now closed. The deal hasn't closed yet. The margin. Give me your updated thoughts on that. It's really interesting company because you have all the pieces and obviously with rate cuts were to come you now have an offsetting hedge automatically within that same company. Correct.
- [38:47]
Vincent Daniel
This is my old neck of the woods. Right. Which is mortgage banking. And it really couldn't be a better marriage of two companies that do roughly the same thing. They're both in mortgage banking. However, Rocket was significantly better by the.
- [39:02]
Danny Moses
Best name ever for amazing.
- [39:04]
Vincent Daniel
Rocket is. Is best in class in originating a mortgage. Mr. Cooper is best in class in servicing a mortgage. So combining the two you're. You're creating a best in class franchise. That's one of the reasons why I liked it so much. The ARB has closed. I. We are not buying it here at the, at this moment. However, I would be buying it on dips. We'll see. I was a little concerned or nervous that this wouldn't close because if they were paying attention post deal they were going to have about 20 to 25% market share of the mortgage servicing market. So I was a little bit worried about the Justice Department, but I, I.
- [39:40]
Danny Moses
For all the worry about the Justice Department, I haven't heard it. I mean no. U.S. steel happened like nothing's like that part of a theme, you know.
- [39:46]
Vincent Daniel
Well, it's also a grift pay to play. They might have to pay someone off and all of a sudden but you know, buy some Trump coins.
- [39:52]
Porter Collins
I mean there's, there's no, there's no sec. There's nobody watching.
- [39:55]
Danny Moses
Well, I know it's a supporter within that. Give me your. And we're gonna go into bgc which now Lutnick has sold basically his shares which I think is a positive for people that own the stock obviously. But give me a thought on the banks here in general. Is it nothing to do the regionals right now in the large banks they seem a little expensive. Just stay away, not long, not short. And then within that. I know BGC is really not part of that group but it does trade those products.
- [40:18]
Porter Collins
Yeah. So bgc thankfully we got Howard Lutnick away from the, you know, the situation. Shares are all set up. I mean I think that you know, we started into a very cheap stock. Stock made a nice move from I think five to nine something or whatever. We bought it now we've marked time for call it a year plus and the earnings have grown into it. So it's now the same valuation which we bought it. And, and it's a play in volatility and volatile volatility in especially in energy and commodities which they specialize in now is off the charts and rates and so and currencies and so I think it's a great play. No one's going to buy it. They hate, everyone hates Lutnick. No, there's not a person on, maybe his wife and his kids like him but no one else likes them. And so when we pitch it to people everyone's like never in planet, never will I buy the stock. So anyway, we still have a big position. I think it's great, it's fine and I think it's going higher.
- [41:20]
Danny Moses
What about the banks? Just the big banks and the regionals.
- [41:26]
Porter Collins
I think the Fed's going to cut rates so that therefore the yield curve will steepen. But I think that they're asset sensitive most of these banks and so they do better when yields are higher. So I think I have no real thoughts on them here. They just sort of yes or no. I think one of the more interesting things to me is, is the student loan repayments within finance.
- [41:52]
Danny Moses
Is the student loan repayments just restarted?
- [41:54]
Porter Collins
Just restarted and see how that affects the economy. I think it actually is a big deal because they're going to start, they talk about garnishing wages for people who don't, who don't pay back student loans. And you know, it's been a massive stimulus for all these kids who did or these people who didn't have to pay student loans. And so I think that's the bigger story here and we'll see how that works out.
- [42:14]
Vincent Daniel
For the first time in a while I have a little bit of a top down concern and it really is a function of AI. Right. Like I've always felt that AI, if it works and if it's successful, and it sure seems like we're trending that way, Lord knows that the Mag 7 are spending a fortune to make it as such, is that this could be a huge reduction in all else being equal employment. Right. And we're seeing it right now, we're seeing massive layoffs. They're not saying it's AI related, but I'm starting to believe it is. And if that.
- [42:45]
Porter Collins
And when you, when you talk the bulls that they, they acknowledge that, but they say on the, on the back end there's gonna be all these new industries created. I think in the near term though, they're gonna cut a lot of jobs. You just don't need to add jobs like you needed to before.
- [42:58]
Vincent Daniel
I just don't know if you can make up that differential. Maybe that's why. Maybe we're too bearish. So, like understanding your natural tendencies of being bearish. But that's a lot of fucking jobs to make up. And if that is the case, then consumer credit is going to tilt south. I'm not saying go crazy, but tilt south. I think you might see it instead. And that combined with student loan repayments and the like. I'm not really what we don't have many positions on, on the short side in terms of consumer credit, but I'm not bullish.
- [43:25]
Danny Moses
Well, if you look at a firm in the Buy Now Pay later for the first time, right, you're going to have the rating. The credit rating companies now start to look at it and they're going to put it in buckets. Now I can only imagine that's coming from the fact that people that use Buy Now Pay later are not showing up. If they're delinquent, it's not hitting their credit. So they're going to get auto loans and so forth. And it's not giving a true picture. I thought that's really interesting because to me, if that were to happen, you have buckets within Buy Now Pay Later. Again, not for right now. But you look at a firm stock that, you know, they just had decent numbers at some point to your point, then if consumer credit does turn, that's the bottom of the barrel as well. And I don't think people understand that because it's a new industry. It hasn't been tested in a normal cycle.
- [44:01]
Porter Collins
So I mean, it comes back to jobs, right? And you know, this time last year we were clipp. I'll use ADP because the government payrolls are stupid. They don't make any sense. Right. So they were clipping along and I think it was 200,000 jobs a month. We're now down to adding 40,000 jobs a month on ADP payrolls. And if that flattens out or goes negative, I think it's problematic. Right. And so that's kind of one of my views that the Fed might cut here just because the labor market's weaker than people kind of give it credit for. Everyone's like, yeah, economy is fine, but like underneath it you've, you've seen the slowdown. Right. And also immigration slowdowns is a big deal. Your population growth just basically goes to.
- [44:43]
Danny Moses
Zero, that job openings go down and job demand because you've had the whole fraction move down together and at some point you're right, numerator, denominator start to mismatch, it could really turn.
- [44:53]
Vincent Daniel
And in general you're not seeing it completely yet in consumer credit. Just to say you're right, you're actually. Auto loans have actually been improving. Credit card loan credit quality. It all looks good. Student lending, not so much. Yeah, but you know, it's more of a. Okay, how good can this get if we don't get, if we don't get a cut in rates which we might combine with the fact that I think employment is not trending as favorably as it was six months ago.
- [45:20]
Porter Collins
The other thing is that the housing market stinks. Yeah, it's terrible.
- [45:24]
Danny Moses
No, that's another interesting. So we'll close with this because I know we're going to get, we can get you guys out of here. But people believe, and I do this, that there's a lot of pent up demand for HELOCs and people can access, you know, equity in their homes. Maybe more on the higher end obviously than the lower end is going to be. But there is people's belief would be. And you saw housing react just to fed funds. It's trading with a KBH did not have a good quarter but no one expected them to. Right. Within housing. So that's going to be a really interesting sector to me that if you do, nothing's moving. But if you get an economic downturn with rates moving lower, what does housing do? Right. That's my point. It's going to be really. And this is why you guys do what you do.
- [45:57]
Vincent Daniel
That's why you could, that's why you get Ivy Zelman.
- [45:59]
Danny Moses
Exactly. She's been on. She'll be back on. Well guys, listen, I think we're at an inflection point. We may have said that a couple times, but A lot of things. But we are an inflection point for things boiling up, you know, whether it's credit, whether it's stock, but whatever. It didn't go on for a long period of time, Tom Petty style, as we just said.
- [46:13]
Porter Collins
So if you've seen like, you know, the market's back, basically, I, I'm not looking at the chart right now, but basically back to an all time high.
- [46:20]
Danny Moses
Oh, yeah.
- [46:21]
Porter Collins
And so do I want to go out and do I feel hunky dory and go out and buy stocks right now? No, I don't. And so, you know, maybe the federal cut and that'll give another push to things higher, but the stuff you're doing.
- [46:33]
Danny Moses
You don't have to.
- [46:34]
Porter Collins
No, I don't care. Right.
- [46:35]
Danny Moses
But it does impact the macro names like a Tesla. If you're short or whatever it might be, it'll swoon down. It could be the leader of what it does. So it's really interesting to watch. And every day that goes by and every year that goes by that you guys have been on, the next generation of traders is behind us. They don't know the gfc, what we saw. And we had lunch today and I said, I just, you can't unsee what we saw. So we know what can go wrong. And this whole market to me about is what can go right. And God bless the optimists and the people that are out there and they're that are buying stocks here. And so until proven wrong and the flows change. Passive wins the day. Flows win the day.
- [47:04]
Porter Collins
The dip buyer has been proven right every single time for the past 15 years. I mean, like, look at this most recent thing. Like, you know, if Trump had kind of stood, didn't taco himself, then stock market would be down a lot more. But everyone kept buying.
- [47:16]
Danny Moses
But listen, and we joke about Powell not joking because it's a, it's a serious issue. He has eight meetings left total, less, you know, after the next one. And so at some point he won't even matter. So what will happen will be late in the fall, early winter, we'll start thinking about a very dovish Fed. And whether that's good or bad for the long rates, no one's going to care. Short term. QE5, here we come.
- [47:34]
Porter Collins
I'll let you out of the bet now.
- [47:35]
Danny Moses
No, I'm not. You said zero. I just said it was a zero. All right, love you guys. Thanks for coming on the tape.
- [47:41]
Vincent Daniel
Thanks for having us.
- [47:41]
Porter Collins
Us.
- [47:41]
Vincent Daniel
Yeah.
- [47:44]
Danny Moses
Thanks for listening to the on the Tape podcast with Danny Moses. If you like what you heard, please subscribe on either Apple or Spotify to the weekly podcast and please leave a rating and review positive only. You can also watch on the on the tape channel on YouTube and give us a thumbs up there as well.