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Kara Swisher
You don't break the Pope you don't like. It's really even among people who don't agree with him.
Astead Herndon
Also, this pope, you know, don't mess with the south side of Chicago. Like pick different fights. Trump. It's on.
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Hi everybody.
Kara Swisher
From New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network, this is on with Kara Swisher. And I'm Kara Swisher. My guest today is Estad Herndon, a political reporter and formerly the host of the Run up podcast at the New York Times. He made a name for himself with
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his on the ground reporting and ability
Kara Swisher
to connect with voters. Astead is now a host and editorial director at Vox. He has a new video podcast called America actually with Asted Herndon.
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The show asks what does America look like after Trump?
Kara Swisher
And can we even talk about politics without putting Trump at the center? I'm excited to talk to him because Astad's an amazing reporter at the heart of it and he's been talking to actual voters rather than just being a pundit. He also has incredible analytical skills and is able to sort of parse things out in an incredibly fair way, which I think is important right now in these polarizing times. We have two expert questions this episode. One from Lulu Garcia Navarro, host of the New York Times podcast the Interview, and another from Ben Collins, CEO of the Onion. Both sent in great questions, so stick around.
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Kara Swisher
It isted thanks for coming on on.
Astead Herndon
Thank you for having me. I appreciate it.
Kara Swisher
I'd love to know why you was the thinking behind what you wanted to do and where you're going. Your new Vox podcast is called America actually with Asted Herndon. You said when you started developing it your was I want to be Trump free. So you're trying to figure out what American politics will look like without Trump as the driving force. I'd love to know why you decided to do it this way. Leave the times, obviously, and what you've found so far.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, yeah. I mean for me it was really about kind of embracing our new media space. I wanted to do and be somewhere where I could embrace all mediums. Right. Text, video. I wanted to do that based on the premise of like my own kind of journalistic lens and kind of free myself of time subscriber. And I also just think that like in this kind of moment of politics specifically, people trust individuals. They trust people who kind of can put themselves out there transparently, can put their process out there transparently. And so I kind of wanted to just do that in its clearest form and felt like Vox was the best opportunity to do that and to the point about Trump freeness. As we were thinking about what's gonna define this show and kind of what do we want our lane to be. Obviously my work has been around elections, national elections Midterms and presidential. And this one is unique in that it's the first time since 2016 we've had these two open primaries, or at least are building to open primaries. They made me think we are on this journey of theoretical Trump replacement. But it seems kind of implausible right now. I think he takes up so much of our ecosystem, it's hard to see past him. And so I thought that, you know, we can use these elections and we can use kind of this Runway as an opportunity to start telling that story, because I think that will be the deeply defining stories. What parts of this do we take with us? What parts are we leaving behind? Like, what parts of this are defining to a changed country versus what was a crazed man?
Kara Swisher
Or is it leave behind of all? Like, I don't. I'm making a new word here, but is it possible to leave behind? Because certain presidents and certain political figures have left either a stain or a lasting impression. Right?
Astead Herndon
Yeah. And I also think that his. The way he has exploited political systems, a lasting impact. The way that he has broken down norms or just increased some levels of shamelessness of elected officials. I think it's a lasting impact. But I still think there are some things, whether on the Democratic side that's defined themselves around opposition to him or on a Republican side that's kind of just deferred to him personally, that we just simply don't know.
Kara Swisher
Because when you say Trump for you and I read that, I was like, can we be. Is it possible? Like, even dead, he'll be interesting, right?
Astead Herndon
Yeah, yeah. So I don't really. I mean it more beyond him. I just mean non Trump centric, more so. And I just think that takes the issues that we think about all the time and puts a different lens on them. And so instead of asking simply like what the impact is from the top down or what kind of the last person in the room was to push him for decision making, we're looking for the impact of that. We're looking for how that's gonna play out in terms of other elected officials. And mostly we're looking to how people have largely been dissatisfied with the solutions that he's proposed.
Kara Swisher
And so, no, he's not right.
Astead Herndon
I think that's really come through in the second term universally. And so it makes our framing, in my opinion, a little easier.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, it's interesting because one of the things I keep thinking about is like, how do. And there was a brief moment where you forgot about Trump after he lost, when he was in ignominy and he went down to Mar a Lago and the Insurrection and everything else until Kevin McCarthy showed up. Essentially, he was on his way to the trash heap as he.
Astead Herndon
I think that's an underrated moment people forget about. In that post 2022 midterms, there was a big space of Republicans. I was at that Republican Windsor convention where they were talking about kind of how he was electoral drag on the party, how they had also assumed, like many others did, that his looming legal problems would be kind of the nail in his political coffin. And so sometimes when Republicans act as if they've seen this and they've been on the train the whole time, I'm like, that's not true. Like, I remember those moments when they were trying to create space for other people to come in. It's simply that the base rejected it. And we saw this. You know, when I was making the Run Up My Times podcast, when those criminal indictments came for a lot of that Republican electorate, it felt like a need to rally around the guy. And that completely changed the tenor of what was going to be a more open race and just the open convo of leaving him behind.
Kara Swisher
Yeah.
Astead Herndon
And so, you know, it's not just that DeSantis was a personality flop or things like that. It is that there was a moment in time in which that kind of window for Republicans to see the ability to move past them collapse. And so their self interest started aligning with where their base increasingly was post those indictments. And so I just think that some of those seeds that we've seen in individual moments, but this election and the March to 2028 will bring them more clearly out, right?
Kara Swisher
Well, interestingly, it still has this, as you say, lasting impact, according to a new Ipsos poll, which I am in, apparently, and I'm quite purple. I have purple fans.
Astead Herndon
Hey, that's great.
Kara Swisher
I know. I was sort of surprised. I'm like, hey, San Francisco lesbian here. But sure, why not? Online platforms and personalities, especially those on the right, have overtaken television and print outlets as regular news sources among people who voted in previous presidential election. That's very obvious talk that because, you know, Trump tube, when I had a lot of influencers, bro, podcasters, I think they're sort of on the wane a little bit too. But are they the new political journalists? How do you look at, like, as you made your decisions? Cause you, you literally went out and talked to people, which is called reporting. I know, kids, it's a really cool thing. You actually find out what people think and then you come to A conclusion based on that. And you have your own insights and everything else. But talk a little bit about that.
Astead Herndon
I mean, it definitely is a change in news ecosystem and we've seen it as we've been on campaign trail. Would we ask people they get their news or where they're getting information from first you hear people increasingly who don't want that information at all. I think that's the number one change. I feel like I picked up people kind of openly saying, well, I keep clear of that. I don't try to hear that. I try to insulate myself from that 100%. And then the second thing I think is leaning on individual voices who people trust who are increasingly. And I think in that Biden years especially were more right wing, were more of those broadcasters. I think we're starting to see that change a little bit as that ecosystem changes. But it was true that I think it did displace your kind of shared political reality of the times. A one or the kind of shared political reality of cable news. Even if they're arguing about things electorate doesn't care about, it mostly did keep a kind of guardrail of discourse on establishment that I don't think is necessarily there anymore. And so I think another thing that's hugely changed too is not just the news sources, but the fundraising mechanisms too, from small donors. You really have a specific activist class or people who are like most interested. And you can raise a lot of money by just speaking to those people too. And so there's a lot of incentive for the influencer age of politics right now.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, it's almost impossible to imagine a Trump presidency without the rise of social media. He changed what Americans expect from their politicians. We even see Democrats copying aspects of this out. Gavin Newsom, for example. Can a normie candidate win the presidency again? Or will successful candidates have to be that way troll and meme their way to virality? Because I wrote a column a couple of years ago, 2018, when I was writing for the Times, and I said, he's the world's greatest Internet troll. And this is important. This is an important aspect which everyone was like, no, it's the political press class. I was like, he's bypassing. And so is, by the way, aoc. I compare these genuine. Whether you like them or not is a different thing, but they're certainly genuine voices. Mamdani. Certainly you're watching it in real time. He's really quite good at it.
Astead Herndon
People who can go directly to their audience and people who have kind of cut out that gatekeeper to create a sense of trust and they deliver their own news to their audience. The biggest thing that Bob Donnie has is that kind of credibility as kind of direct to camera, direct to Instagram audience organizing ability that he's cultivated over time. So I definitely think you're right that the new type of politician, I think led by Trump has played assignment editor for media by bad passing us. But also I think can talk to their voter more directly. To the point about Norman candidate, I still do think that it can be a sort of quote unquote, normal candidate or maybe not an open troll and still win. But I do think you have to command attention or have the ability to command attention in this economy. And so in this decentralized landscape, I don't think you can simply rely on the press release or the X statement or whatever. I think you have to have the ability to do the 30 second video, to do the three hour sit down and to be able to have a message that cuts through on both fronts. Because sometimes I think that we only think about the delivery of message. But the biggest thing I think that helps Zoron or AOC is the consistency of message too. That they can bring. Yeah, that they can bring to every platform. And they're very comfortable in that. You know, I make the example of. There was so much back and forth, obviously about Harris going on Joe Rogan in 2024 and she did do big podcasts like Call Her Daddy and such. But I was like, the content of what she brought to that platform was pretty much a stump speech.
Kara Swisher
That's right.
Astead Herndon
And so if you're gonna go to new mediums and behave in an old way, I don't think it does the same type of work to that new medium. And that's where the magic happens.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, we had talked about it and I was like, you don'. And I didn't mean it this way. I was like, everything is promiscuous now. Like, and I don't mean to be in a sexual way. It's like you have to be on all the time, all the time. You have to be very genuine. And people can sense that very quickly. Even if they don't like you, they like you, like because you're there and communicating the person you are. I wanted her to do a show called Recently Unemployed with Kamala Harris, which I thought would have been very funny. And she goes around and talks to unemployed people.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, honestly, that's like, that's a great idea.
Kara Swisher
Wear the sneakers, T shirt, jeans. Like that's the look everybody Likes about you. And so. And that's what you're actually like that.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. And I think that to your point, that gets you closer to the person, you know, we've seen her be, I think, particularly as folks who have got to see her privately or covered her, rather than, I think, prosecutor mode, which I think is.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, the pussy bomb thing.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. Sometimes I think when the lights come on was the switch that flipped. And so I kind of empathize sometimes with politicians about, like, the risk of authenticity, the risk of being genuine in that many settings. I think, particularly like in a gendered way, like we have not supported women candidates coming to media and electorate as full self. Like, so I get the trepidation there. I just also get that it's required in this landscape. And I don't think you can get around that.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. Because there is a real clapback.
Astead Herndon
That's the risk of that sort of genuineness or authenticity. The clip farming can make one moment into a larger definitional space. And I think that's if you're playing from a place of risk, particularly as a politician, that's been why they've been so distant from it.
Kara Swisher
Right. The question is, does it really hurt? Because it looks Trump just keeps barreling fucking through. But he's obviously radically reshaped American politics. And he's not just the communications he tried to overturn the election in 2020. He's been an authoritarian bender since he was reelected, with mixed success, I think you'd have to say, but mostly Republicans have gone along with it. So how do we fix the irreconcilable differences between mag. Authoritarian tendencies and those who believe in democracy and the rule of law? I do believe without the person there. There is some. There's not. J.D. vance isn't likable, nor is he. Does he have the same power, charisma, whatever, however you wanna use it. So what happens in this post Trump era from your. As you're starting to do this podcast?
Astead Herndon
Yeah. You know, one of the things I remember from my time in Trumpland is how many of their voters would clarify how we're not a democracy, we're representative democracy. We don't have a direct democracy. They would use that as kind of an insulation from their fear that a more direct democracy as the country was changing, was going to displace them in terms of power. And I think it's been a really motivating factor for Republicans, even as Donald Trump has made this authoritarian. Ben, is that a lot of them have come to hear that democracy term and Fox News is telling as a way for secretly voting illegals and George Soros backed groups to steal elections. And so it allowed fertile ground for Trump's authoritarian push. It was fertile ground for an electorate that was primed to say, hey, this system, as is, is actually moving away from us. And so that's the question I kind of start with when we think about after him, is like, can there be a renewal of democracy or are we kind of changing our floor into this kind of inevitable slide? And I think one of the things that obviously animates that question is I think it was a real mistake for Democrats in 2024 to pitch democracy as a thing that just Donald Trump broke and not a thing that needed fixing.
Kara Swisher
Overall renewal.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. And that there was an opportunity to say, hey, let's make this better, and that's the way that we recommit to this. Because I think what I hear from Dr. Independent is an understanding of a broken Congress. Right. A desire for things like term limits, particularly stuff like the Supreme Court. There is a understanding among people who are distant from politics right now that things aren't necessarily working or that system seems at least outdated from responding to people's concerns. And so I think that that is an opportunity for anybody, particularly as we move toward this next, to say that's part of my vision of a post Trump America is to renew a commitment to some baseline principles that he's blown up. I just think that for Washington, they have a little bit of their self interest is at odds here, too. And so that's where these outsider candidates are kind of interesting to be like. Because that's ground that they can take up more clearly and they can say things like removing money from this stuff or super PACs. And I think Washington gets uncomfortable with that.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. But I don't think they're necessarily doing the old fighting Washington thing. It's a very different. You know, usually it was like, I'm here because I'm not a creature of Washington. I think they've moved past that, some of these candidates, and they're all different stripes politically, which is interesting. And I think the ones that go, I'm here to fight Washington, I'm like, oh, that's not really what I want. I want some new, fresh ideas. Right.
Astead Herndon
Yeah.
Kara Swisher
And so they sort of dismiss it, you know, like, well, yes, of course, we know how we feel about that. Like they're past it in some way.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. I think solutions are the key point.
Kara Swisher
Correct.
Astead Herndon
I think there is a diagnosis of problems that's kind of agreed Right now, partially because I think Trump has laid them bare. And so I don't think you're gonna win on just saying, hey, this is an issue. I think that that was something that even I think back to the 2020 Democratic primary. It was a policy paper contest. And I think that'll be a little different now too. But I do think the burden will be on a party that even Democratic base wants ideas, wants a feeling of fight. Yeah. But I think that mostly is expressed in your level of political creativity. You know, how are you showing me that you're gonna do this? How are you showing me that you're gonna go beyond the rhetoric we've already done?
Kara Swisher
Right. Well, Donnie did this really well when they were asking me about president. He's like, I'm really not concerned about that. I'm concerned with the potholes and I'm concerned with this. And of course I'm thinking about that, which I think is sort of like a dismissive, like this thing, which is interesting. Cause the other day I think I sat on pivot. I'm like, you know, we can go on and on about the history of Donald Trump. There'll be a million like thumb sucking essays about wither Donald Trump. What does he mean now? Post whatever. I'm just waiting for all those, which I. Well, none of which I will read. And what's interesting is I said it's actually an opportunity to say he's broken a lot of things. Well, okay, what are we gonna build now? We don't have to build it back. Right. Like, what didn't work, what did? And everyone's like, oh, how could you say that? I'm like, cause a lot of things are broken. I think everyone has a sense of that. I mean, he's broken them, but what do we want now? It gives you an opportunity for renewal, which is, I think what you're aiming at with this podcast.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, I 100% think that's where a lot of folks are. And so our goal is to see the seeds of that. Like, what are the groups who are gonna define our post Trump future? We're thinking about the growing parts of the electorate. First generation Americans, people of faith, people who had necessarily been marginalized, or people, young people, people under 30, I think are a big one for us in terms of who's gonna drive some of that future. People's anxiety about changing work economy and I think the place that tech plays in that is a huge thing for us. Like, we wanna track some of that. You know, I'm in so many places that are talking about the inevitability of job displacement and things, and then you're in the electorate that feels kind of resentful that everyone's talking about this from a, from a certain place, you know, And I'm like, what's the impact of that gap? How does that gap manifest itself in our elections and things like that? And so taking the issues and then taking the buckets of people, I think help us find some of the seeds along the way. Because by the time we get to an open 27 primary, I think that's when they're gonna be expressed. But the candidates will be vessels for those things, and those things will already be, I feel like defining animating factors among voters themselves.
Kara Swisher
We'll be back in a minute.
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Kara Swisher
So let's talk about where MAGA movement is and whether or not it's splintering. I think if it is, it seems like it. It doesn't seem like just a TV show. Reality show certainly could be that, and Trump's shows have done that. But he's attacked Tucker Carlson, Meghan Kelly, Alex Jones, Candice Owen, all of them been critical of Trump over the war in Iran. Specifically, comedians Joe Rogan, Andrew Schultz and the Vaughan have been publicly reconsidering their support. Although Joe Rogan, all it takes is to give him a psychedelic and then he's back. What a thirsty fuck that guy is. Anyway, is that really happening? Talk a little bit about that and explain for people. I mean, obviously several of them are doing it for show. They make content out of everything. There's not one feeling that doesn't go unexpressed by any of them. Essentially Yeah, I mean, I think for
Astead Herndon
people who haven't lived in the Turning Points world, you know, like I follow on some of his tour leading up to the 24 election, you know, I used to go to Turning Point events a bunch and Trump won. If you haven't lived in those kind of podcasts in the world, I don't think you can fully appreciate how much of a fundamental promise Donald Trump broke with the Iran war. Like they, this is something that has motivated that group for a long time that they have talked about as the defining factor of why Donald Trump was not traditional Republicans. And so even as he flagrantly broke every other promise, even as he tariffed his way to inflation, even as he does things that were clearly violation of campaign promises that they just accepted, they kind of held onto this piece as a reason of why he was still distinct. So now that has blown up. I think that's why you're seeing some of this spill out. And it is, I think, an early indicator we're starting to see some of this in numbers. In the recent NBC poll that was released this week, I was looking at Trump's strongest level of approval rating among Republicans is at its lowest level yet. Yes, that's still like 79, 80%. But he's usually in the 90s, right. He's usually in a kind of universal agreement among Republicans. The other thing I would say here is this is where it matters, that Donald Trump's coalition was built off of more than just traditional Republicans. Because the people who are the most likely to break from him, from the Iran war debacle are people who came to him for that kind of non traditional reason. And when you look at like the Tuckers and all that world, their audience is mostly younger folks and people who would not define themselves as traditional Republican Party these days.
Kara Swisher
Right. He's tormented.
Astead Herndon
And so, yeah, yeah, at least so in those people, I think there has been a legitimate backlash again.
Kara Swisher
And so combined with Epstein, presumably combined
Astead Herndon
with Epstein, which I think was a big factor in that too. And so I think that you get, you start to see some of those flavors I was talking to, you know, we have this Trump MAGA radio host on, his name is John Fredericks. And he was, he was admitting that, you know, if I could change, he was like, if I could change two things, it would be tariffs at Epstein. I'm like, those are big things, you know, like those are bearing walls sometimes. Because the, for us of who have known Donald Trump to be a liar or be a manipulator or whatever, the whole time. I think there can sometimes be a. Oh, here they go again. Just making content. Or they just say this and they make kids and make up. And certainly that might happen. But I think this is a little different because of just how fundamental no forever wars and specifically no regime change war with Iran was to Donald Trump's relationship to this world.
Kara Swisher
Right. There's also anti Semitism and a couple
Astead Herndon
of them, for sure. For sure.
Kara Swisher
Israel, anti Israel. And there's certainly much to criticize Israel, especially Netanyahu about. But they're like, dyed in the wall. Like, they. Absolutely.
Astead Herndon
I mean, what Tucker Carlson's doing is beyond just some, like, you know, principal critique of net. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Kara Swisher
The other day, Marjorie Cheligreem, who's so reasonable these days, for some reason, like, on certain issues, I'm like, ask her about trans. She'll go right back to shape.
Astead Herndon
Right? Yeah, yeah. I'm like.
Kara Swisher
I was like, I'm sorry, but one of the things she did, she was talking about the war. And I do believe she's quite sincere. Right. It's a sincere belief. The two things that are sincere to me are Epsteina and America first. No war.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. I mean, for that crowd, they believe those things from him 100%. I think Epstein is, for folks, even more shocking because we knew the facts about his relationship with them, but he had presented himself as the poor man's rich man, and so that was core to his relationship with that base. And I think even that Kuanani conspiratorial universe that has gotten wrapped into a lot of this, they thought he was gonna come back and open the floodgates for the Clinton crimes. And I think the reality of that has swallowed up a lot closer to home than they thought.
Kara Swisher
Oh, yeah. When Epstein first happened, I was in those groups, and I think Scott was like, oh, it's gonna. I'm like, this is not gonna blow over. You don't know. You don't understand. This is core. Now, a group of people that were maybe not core, but certainly convinced that Trump could help them were Latino voters who helped propel him to victory. But a recent poll by Third Way and Unido found that Trump's unfavorability number is now 66% with Latino voters. Talk about this coalition.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, We've seen it in the special elections. We've seen it in places like New Jersey. It's been big shifts in kind of Latino voting communities. We just did an episode talking about immigration changes, and we were talking to reporters from Arizona who were Talking about the 180 they've seen specific to Donald Trump's actions. I mean, I think when we talk about Latinos, you know, you have to talk about from a first place, a diverse group who doesn't always see themselves in community. They don't always see themselves as a link.
Kara Swisher
I'm like, you think I have anything in common with Richard Grinnell? I don't think so at firsthand.
Astead Herndon
You know, if you've ever been to some of these places and you're looking at them as if they are having the feeling of connectivity with someone crossing the border in El Paso or Florida or in other places or, you know, like some of that's not always true and we should acknowledge that that's hard
Kara Swisher
for us to understand.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, but I think another cor point here is Donald Trump did have a diagnosis of a couple problems, particularly border security that I think sometimes people conflated with his mass deportations push, which is unpopular. Right. But the less people coming across southern border is largely popular. Yes, very popular and true among even some Democrats who felt that that was something that was ignored under Biden. I think you also have to acknowledge, you know, particular to, you know, when we talk to kind of folks who are in Latino communities, a faith based community that, you know, some of the pushes that was some of the pushes that we're seeing about like Democratic liberalism, I'm thinking about abortion rights and thinking about LGBT rights, had a backlash in certain areas, particularly a lot of faith based areas that we saw on alongside border. But I think the most important thing that's happened in the last two years is simply he just taking all of the accurate diagnosis and not focusing on solutions. And so it is not hard to follow who's to blame for rising prices right now.
Kara Swisher
Right, exactly.
Astead Herndon
Because he made it quite clear by an obnoxious tariff announcement nobody wanted and by a war to raise energy prices nobody wanted. And so I'm like, everyone gets that. That's the number one driver of that.
Kara Swisher
There was also the brutality of the,
Astead Herndon
there's the brutality of the immigration push too. I think plays I had a lot
Kara Swisher
of people who are conservative who like, well, I believe in strong borders, but not this way. Like a lot of but not this. I believe in China is fucking us, but not this.
Astead Herndon
I would ask people, you know, they had mass deportations now signs at the rnc like some of this was not a surprise. Right. But I think people's assumption of who right always falls to, you know, the bad guy. You know, they will follow through on their promise of Targeting violent criminals or people who have been convicted of a Lisa crime.
Kara Swisher
Right.
Astead Herndon
And that's not what we saw. Right. That's how we saw la.
Kara Swisher
But not my gardener, not my babysitter, not my.
Astead Herndon
Exactly, exactly. Renee. Good.
Kara Swisher
Like, you know, like a mom dropping her kid off.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, exactly. All the things we saw was a. Was a disconnect. And I just think in general, like, they embrace a showy. You know, Stephen Miller wanted 3,000 arrests per day. Yeah. That was not about who was being targeted.
Kara Swisher
No. It's just clean it up.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. That was about a projection of a type of person they want to make feel uncomfortable. So I think those numbers are a reaction to a message they intentionally tried to send about who is welcome here and not. And I don't think that was the issue that they were sent there to do. Even if I would say discriminatory language or that type of rhetoric has been there the whole time.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, because then he's talking about you.
Astead Herndon
Exactly.
Kara Swisher
Now, another group that has been very tight with him, the Christians, obviously. But bickering with the Pope and posting a Jesus like image of himself. Marjorie Taylor Greene called it more than blasphemy. It's an antichrist spirit. Everyone's trying to do this doctor thing, but, like, it's hard to imagine evangelical voters pulling the lever for Democrats. Notwithstanding the appeal of James Talarico, who I like to call Baby Jesus. But talk about this evangelical support, has it splintered? Is there an opening for someone like Talarico, who's quite progressive? I would say if you listen to him.
Astead Herndon
I personally, I think that I think
Kara Swisher
they'll stick with him.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. I think that I have come to the kind of Pavlovian response with evangelicals that they stick with him. And partially that's because of my, in my own reporting, the bar that they've set for to break with Trump is so high because it's not about his personal actions, it's barely about his policies. You know, when I talked to Al Mohler, Conservative Theological Seminary a couple years ago for the show, so he was saying that he was willing to back people who had stormed the Capitol in that midterm, even though he found that to be an anti Democratic move because he was so scared of the rise of gay and trans people on the other side. And so I'm like, if it's always that motivating factor, I think a lot of those folks always return back to conservative or Republican politics. I find the Catholic stuff really interesting, though. I think that more than. And evangelicals and my Question there. Like, I find Trump's fight with the Pope to be, like, indicative of, like, his lack of his. You know, I think he chose better targets, or at least that he was a big enough figure that the chart targets he chose feel kind of small. I think this pope is a losing battle. I think that's why he feels Van stepping away from it. And honestly, I think, you know, even the growth among Catholicism among American young people and things like that.
Kara Swisher
Welcome to my world, my son.
Astead Herndon
Those type of things to me have an interesting question of, like, does evangelicalism, does that wave of Christian nationalism, like, retain its kind of primacy in Republican politics as we move forward? I think that's the question I have.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. Let me give you, my son, was we were talking about Protestants and how the German princes wanted Martin Luther to do it. Cause they wanted power over the Pope. There was a lot more political stuff happening at the time. So each Protestant denomination have to have different. You can find a very conservative Protestant group of evangelicals, and you can find a very liberal one. And one of the points he was making, he said, the reason I like going to church is that there's all different people on all the. You have Opus DEI and you have the Jesuits, and you have this all under one doctrine, under one consistency.
Astead Herndon
Yep.
Kara Swisher
And it is one doctrine. It is. And so, yeah, you know, that's what's attractive to him about it. And. Which was interesting. I hadn't thought about. I was like, oh, you're right. There's not 10 different flavors of it. There's different people in it, but they live within the Pope organization, essentially.
Astead Herndon
I have heard people make this argument about the power of it be that kind of consistency in monoculture. You know, I come from a, you know, the most Protestant background ever. And my father's a Pentecostal pastor. And so, like, all the. Of sometimes, like Catholicism, I feel like I went to a Catholic college. I went to Marquette. And so I was sometimes, like, learning the kind of rituals and other things, like, later than other people. And I remember someone making this point to me, and I'm finding it quite powerful. They're like, you could be in any part of the world and be any type of person. There's all these different disciplines, and they are all based in the kind of same construction and that kind of wavering of personality or theology that you could sometimes find among disagreements.
Kara Swisher
Right. About women.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. In a world of difference. That kind of sameness and poison to something, actually, but felt more powerful. So I can see why he made that argument.
Kara Swisher
Well, it was interesting. He's like, I like that and I like disagreeing. But it's also one doctrine and the Pope is at the top of it. I'm like, don't the Pope. You don't break the Pope. You don't like. It's really even among people who don't agree with him.
Astead Herndon
Also this Pope. Don't mess with the south side of Chicago. Pick different fights. Trump.
Kara Swisher
This Pope is smart. Speaking of communication skills, this guy's got him in space. So last thing about the Republicans and we'll talk about the Democratic. Speaking of the next GOP nominee, who do you see taking over the MAGA mantle as you're starting this exploration? Yeah, who is it?
Astead Herndon
I mean, obviously it starts with J.D. vance and others, but I definitely think that he is showing the difficulty of how to maintain the Trump coalition without Donald Trump. Right. And so whether that is from a personality lens or I think from a principles lens, like, I think J.D. vance has tried to give MAGA ism a set of principles and to pretend as if it's a kind of consistent thing, but then he finds himself on the wrong side of stuff like Iran Moore, stuff like Epstein Faust.
Kara Swisher
He's also lacks charm. I said he has the charm of a cybertruck, but go ahead.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, I mean, he's changed who he is so many times for the purposes of ambition. I feel like we have to also say, who will the version of JD Vance in 2028 even be? We don't even know that he'll call
Kara Swisher
himself they them if he needs to.
Astead Herndon
I'm like, the man has been 10 versions of himself for that breakabout.
Kara Swisher
So is there someone emerging? Because one of the things I was thinking of is benches and I felt like the Democrats have a better bet. Like there's a lot of people coming up younger. Like I don't know who they are in the Republican Party, cuz it's so on Trump's on top. And then you have all these others.
Astead Herndon
He also has in the, particularly in the midterms he's been president and pretty much chosen the worst candidates possible for the purposes of building a bench. But I think Trump's lasting impact, honestly is their primeness for an outsider. Right. So I don't think when even Republicans think about bench, they're looking back to, you know, House members or someone on the rise in Congress. I think that like, you know, even someone like, you know, I would put the RFK juniors, I would put Marco Rubio, of course. But I do think someone can make A argument for kind of principled version of MAGA ism. I don't know if that's a Marjorie Taylor Greene. She's kind of been too anti Trump in the last Is there any figure
Kara Swisher
you see that you're intrigued by?
Astead Herndon
You look? I guess not. The first thing I felt about Republicans like six, eight months ago was that Vance was putting himself in a pickle. And I think that's. Everyone can see that now, but he has a lot of interpersonal clout in that world. And so more than the question of like will the public want someone to run against him, I wonder if someone with credibility in Republican circles runs against him simply because they seem to like have liked the guy privately more than even publicly. And so I guess I don't have any other options yet or any folks who are catching by yet. Cuz I think Republicans have been very deferential to him in terms of laying that path for him.
Kara Swisher
That's not gonna last.
Astead Herndon
And so I think he's gonna have first right of refusal. And if that flop happens, then floodgates open. But I think it's a real a big change that flop happens.
Kara Swisher
So yeah, I think he, well maybe if he has a baby, shows the baby off, I don't know. But I think he makes Mike Pence look exciting. So every episode we get a question from an outside expert. We actually have two for you to answer. Here's the first from Lulu Garcia Navarro, host of the New York Times podcast the Interview.
Lulu Garcia Navarro
Hi Estad. Hi Kara. I'm here in Maine, which brought to mind a question. It seems like the upcoming midterm elections are going to tell us something about where their respective parties are at. And it seems like a lot of the fights are about what a post Trump world is going to look like. So I'd love to get your view on where you think those fault lines are and if there's going to be a place in the Republican Party for people like Susan Collins, who will be running again in Maine as senator, and where you think someone like a Graham Platner who is seeking the nomination for the Democrats to run against Susan Collins, where he fits in and all that and where the bases are at respectively. It seems like there's just a lot of insurgent energy.
Kara Swisher
See you soon.
Astead Herndon
1 I think she's totally right. Like there is insurgent energy and Graham Platner's writing that a lot of those scandals that came out a lot of folks thought would be kind of fatal for him. And every poll has a bigger and bigger margin from Janet Mills, because he explained it. He explained it, he was clear about it. But I think also there is a growing acceptance that real people or real candidates have passed, that they have lived on the Internet like the rest of us and they have said and done stuff on the Internet that they may have regretted. And if I think folks feel that kind of authentic explanation from you, they're willing to hear it. I think the Susan Collins example is an important one. Cuz Republicans have kind of given her a little bit of space to just run her own race, right? Like she's had her tiffs with Donald Trump. He's, you know, necessarily talked about it. But they'll find a way to obviously financially and kind of rally around. What I think is just shows though, is that the excitement, the energy, the new ideas are coming from the Democratic side right now. You're not seeing kind of Republican midterm candidates who have really gotten their bases on fire. They're still kind of living in the Donald Trump personality shadow. And so people like Graham Plattner are bigger, I think, than the individual brand of their party. And I think that's a change right now because of how invested the Democratic base is. I think a big shift that's happening is that the most interested parts of the Democratic base, the most who are most, most politically news savvy, have become so much more activisty, so much more invested. They want a fight 100%. And that kind of no Kings ish shift, it hasn't been necessarily, maybe it's become a little more progressive, but it's certainly become more activist. It's certainly become more, less passive for I think the traditional Democratic playbook. And so I think those shifts are some of what we're seeing in Maine and I think what we're seeing across the country.
Podcast Announcer
Great.
Kara Swisher
And here's the second expert question from Ben Collins, the CEO of the Onion.
Ben Collins
Kara Austep.
Astead Herndon
Hello.
Ben Collins
Great to see you from the wonderful city of Chicago. This is Ben Collins, the owner of the Onion and also operator of Infowars. So there's a war on for your mind, you know. Anyways, first time, long time. I just wanted to ask you a quick question. Don't give me a answer like Amy Klobuchar or something. Who is your real secret dark horse for 2028? Like mine is like George Clooney. I think you can do much better than that. But I want like a name. Do not like, if you say Alyssa Slotkin. Kara, just turn the podcast off. Like end the podcast. I want to hear like a real left field dandy legit legitimately think could win both the nomination and the presidency in 2028. So thank you.
Astead Herndon
I love the question. The only unfair part here is he stole the good answer with George Clooney. I'm definitely team outsider as underrated. I definitely think that there is appetite for someone who represents a clean break. I think things like experience have actually decreased in importance around the electorate and creativity and ideas like we talked about about matter more. So I think that name ID plus legitimacy on some liberal credentials. So he took clooney. I'll take McConaughey or maybe like a brown version of People are kind of down on the rock these days. I'll just plus one his Clooney. I think that's a good call and I think that's the exact type of lane I'm talking about.
Kara Swisher
We'll be back in a minute.
Astead Herndon
It.
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Kara Swisher
All right, let's get to the Democrats. According to a poll by Civics, white non college graduates currently have 70% unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party. That's actually good. It seems like being anti Trump isn't enough for the Democrats. Even when Trump is unpopular, as they said, it's never ending internal debate over whether the party should moderate its social position, sort of broaden his appeal, double down on progressive economic policies. Talk a little bit about this. Would either one work with working class white voters? Bernie is still enormously popular and it seems like AOC is headed that direction too, but I don't. Maybe she's a lady, so they can't stomach that.
Astead Herndon
I remember being in Iowa in 2019 and meeting this guy who was so torn between Bernie and Mike Bloomberg. And I remember thinking like what? You know, what's the consistency here? You know, like, and you talk to people for long enough time and the consistency's not in that ideological spectrum. Right. He's not pro billionaire one day and anti billionaire the next day. He basically liked a guy with strongish beliefs who he felt he knew what they cared about though bad, or if what they cared about seemed to be at odds with one another. And I say that to say when we talk about this kind of ideological fight. I think the Democrats biggest problem is clarity of beliefs, no matter what those beliefs are. So I think you can own a kind of moderate lane in a Mikey Sherrill way and show that I'm gonna cry a national emergency to lower your electricity prices. And that makes a lot of sense. But I think you can also have clarity in a zoron way. And that makes a lot of sense in that place.
Kara Swisher
It's a similar message.
Astead Herndon
What I think you can't do is waffle on naming the villains of an affordability crisis, of inflation, of things like that. And I think there are issues that have such root among electorate, they become litmus tests for authenticity. On will you speak truthfully about villains? You know, I think Epstein's part of that. I think AIPAC money's part of that. Now I think there's ways that to show yourself as being trustworthy to follow through on said ideas around electability. But more than anything, I think that the conversation about where to fall on this ideological spectrum inherently leads them in bad directions. Because if you're putting your finger to the wind and saying that's where you're starting from and how do I calibrate that correctly to where people are, that's the wrong Process.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. So basically you're saying is this, we have to all agree. I'm like, no, you don't. Why do you have to agree? No, because I think Mamdani's single minded focus on affordability is working. But even though it's hard to imagine a democratic socialist winning in another state, talk about the practical lessons here because obviously he's charismatic and he's just a really wonderful communicator in so many ways. I have yet to see him stumble in something. And you know, it's easy to stumble. But talk about what that does because as you said, Mickey Sheryl or Abby Spamberger or, you know, Talarico couldn't be more different from each other and from him. Right?
Astead Herndon
Yeah. I mean, I think they're coming to things though with a desire for political creativity. I think they're not seeing the system as is. And I think you have to pitch from the premise of that sort of change. And what I would also say though is like, it feels like Democratic base has recognized that the normal shell game of kind of electability is not something they're inherently deferential to. So I don't think you can just say, you know, as they're finding out in Maine, as they may find out in Michigan, that this person's supposed to win and this person win and the electorate just follows. I feel like they, you know, a lot of people feel like they have been told the right thing to do for too long and that walked them into a Donald Trump, you know. And so that kind of, that kind of thumb on scale, particularly from the DSCCs of the world, is not what's working now. Does that mean that there could be no modern candidate that wins? Absolutely not. I think that that means you need to be someone who has your own version of a vision that isn't someone who is like. So I think about the Michigan Senator Alyssa Slotkin as someone even she was having that back and forth with Hasan Piker about whether to come to Michigan or not. And I remember her response being like, you know, I don't want to go on the stream because of how this person's talked about me for a long time. And I'm thinking like, that gets, that's like a clear way to articulate what I think is someone who is, you know, trying to show themselves as fighter and all those things, wants to stay distant from far left, but does not want it to be because she can't handle those questions or she finds you like, but it's, you know, so I'm saying like there's a way that I think you can show your values, show clarity in those values and also not make the far left or the growing progressive lane inherently off putting to you. Right. Like I think that this will next year will be an effort to build that coalition. But it's gonna be difficult because we see these litmus tests popping up already.
Kara Swisher
Yes you do.
Astead Herndon
And I think you see an electorate
Kara Swisher
that is sick of litmus tests.
Astead Herndon
Is sick of sick of litmus tests.
Kara Swisher
It's so interesting, you know, it's like
Astead Herndon
does it fall on that same litmus test barometer as to compared of political elites do? So they're imposing these tests that I don't think is where voters are.
Kara Swisher
You know, it's no purity tests on both sides. And by the way, Republicans are abusing them more at this point even though some on the left and progressive areas can be really irritating. So can some of the centrist people be really irritating. But the purity test thing is really chafes people's asses as far as I can tell. Like can't I have different opinions now. That said, Virginia voters just paved way for a Democratic leaning new map to help counter Republican gerrymanders in state states like Texas and Ohio. And AOC had the right point. We're playing their game if they want to play this. She was excellent messaging that I have to say. But according to population trends, the 2030 census will lead to Democratic states losing six to 12 House seats. Republican states gain the seats in corresponding electoral college votes and Supreme Court is poised to overturn section 2 of the Voting Rights act and potentially hand at least another 19 seats to Republicans. Talk about looking past past the midterms, how you assess the medium and long term prospects for Democrats.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, I mean you're right that it was an impressive kind of short term push for things like Virginia to happen. I think they fought Democrats to SIBI neutral or even close to leading for when it comes to this year's midterms. But the long term population shifts, the trends towards Republican areas will be bad for Democrats in the electoral College. You know, the Senate kind of proportion gap will be harder and harder for them to find their way to things like 60 votes. And I think even we think about the court packing that Donald Trump is engaged in that obviously is difficult to wind back with lifetime appointments. And so obviously the kind of structures of government have given Republicans I think a clear advantage in the sort of long term power sustainability. But Democrats have known some of these challenges. There was the reason why the John Lewis act was supposed to be a top priority for the Biden administration in terms of trying to have a national bulwark against gerrymandering and trying to make Congress at least more equitable. They weren't able to pass those things. I think if you're a Democrat. What I do think is more true now though is a willingness to use power and a willingness to pull the levers in ways that I think traditionally, I think it took them a long time of seeing Donald Trump do that to embrace that themselves. And so I think if there is a Democratic president in 2020, there will be a much more concerted push for
Kara Swisher
a, A more muscular activity.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. For a more muscular rethink of how. Of some of these structures for a, for a Project 2028ish, you know, 2029 sort of thing where they're thinking about how they even use things like the federal workforce or how they restore those types and stuff like that type of, kind of 360 rethink, I think allows there to be more solutions on the real structural things you're identifying. But without that, that is where Republicans know they have permanent root. They're not as worried about their waning electoral advantages because one, they eight years ago thought they couldn't win any working class people of color votes. They now learned that that's not something that's inherently off putting. And then the second thing I think they know is they know that there are some of these structures that baked in their power. And so I think if you're a Democrat, that has to be amongst the priorities. But if there is some more willingness for the party to at least exercise its power.
Kara Swisher
You're seeing the governors do it. The governors, the Democratic governors are impressive.
Astead Herndon
Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's a big push too. Pritzker's one of those. Newsom obviously all of them in different ways.
Kara Swisher
There's very few of them that aren't quite good at what they're doing. Like, and you could see their popularity too.
Astead Herndon
And I think that's still what we're talking about in terms of like, yeah,
Kara Swisher
you're in Michigan and we love Gretsch, even Republic, not maybe as much.
Astead Herndon
But still that type of willingness to do what you came there to do and show that proof point I think is a lasting impact of the post2024 era for Democrats.
Kara Swisher
So wrapping up, we only have just a few more minutes. There's lots of issues. The war in Iran, obviously with 2/3 of Americans disapproving how he's handling it, obviously The Epstein things still sticks over everything. He's there in the room every moment of the time. That will eventually wane probably. But the war for sure is one of these moments. Gas prices, affordability, there's so many things. And of course Trump says gas prices will drop as soon as the war ends, but he's not telling the truth. But how do you look at what the most important issues are moving into the midterms as you're looking? Because the midterms is about post Trump. It really is. It's about what now? What do you think the key things are?
Astead Herndon
Like, the first easiest thing for the midterms is the popularity of the president. And I would say what kind of gas prices are. And I think in the trend direction that we're in, in the tariff to inflation direction that we're in, that's all bad signs. I think the second thing you think about with the midterms is like the candidate quality in those individual races. And Democrats have basically gotten the candidates they mostly want. That also helps them in these sort of things. And so I think that when we're looking at the seeds here, all the signs do add up to something that would be a better night or at least the conditions are right for Democrats to do what they hope to do in the midterms. I guess to me, we still go back to that structure question because it can be a blue wave or a blue trickle or whatever, but the way that we have drawn these maps means that if that doesn't happen in a concerted area, if that doesn't happen in these three Arizona House districts, you might still be thinking about only a one or two seat majority. And so that's the hard part about these midterms, is that the pure expression of people's displeasure does not inherently mean some national wave reflected in Congress.
Kara Swisher
Right. That's a very good point.
Astead Herndon
And so I think people should temper some of the expectations with that. But to answer the core question, are the conditions there and what are the first things we should look at? We should look at this president's massive unpopularity and particularly the pain he's driving in people's pockets. That will be the most important factors.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. So let's last very quick question. On a hopeful note, America actually has a partnership with Report for America, an organization that puts emerging journalists in local newsrooms nationwide. I'd love you just to end on what are some unreported positive stories you're getting from these young boots on the ground reporters?
Astead Herndon
Yeah, we just talked to one in Arizona who was telling us about the mass organization among young people who have done a lot of the grassroots pushing back against Trump's deportation policies. We're collecting stories from them about the World cup and about the ways that is kind of logistically changing some of their communities, but also brief a sense of, like, optimism and a sense of representation to parts of their states that they like. You know, that felt unseen. And so I really like them as, like, a touchstone to the ground. I really like them as a way that we get a sense of original reporting outside the bubble. But I'm excited to get even more things from them. But, you know, we expect them to be at gas stations this summer and talking to people at, you know, the pumps. What they're talking and what they're feeling, too. And so. So their ability to feed that back to us, I think, will really help us out.
Kara Swisher
Haven't been grocery store I. Who don't look at prices. I don't. I just never do. I never have. I'm like, what? I've never done that in my life.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. No, it's. It's wild out here. I feel like when I was outside, when I was doing a lot of that reporting. Walmart parking lots, my favorite. And so we'll have them there, too.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, yeah. Which would be great. Like a lot of places. Cause I think there's. I think voters are much more. I always trust voters to be more articulate, even though, you know, you can make fun of MAGA people or whoever doesn't know stuff, that's easy picking stuff.
Astead Herndon
Yeah. But when it comes to prices, when it comes to how that feeling and the clarity of how much that matters more than other things, I love hearing that firsthand.
Kara Swisher
Right stead. Thank you for your time. You can find america actually on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast. I'm thrilled you're here.
Astead Herndon
I really appreciate it. Thank you so much for having me. Kara had a blast.
Kara Swisher
One more thing before we go. Want career advice from Kara Swisher? Now's your chance. We're doing a special episode about all of it, and I want your questions. Send a video to on voxmedia.com and you might be featured. Can't wait to see what you've got. Today's show was produced by Christian Castrosel, Michelle Aloy, Kathryn Milsop, Megan Burney, and Kalyn Lynch. Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer. Apollo Podcasts. Special thanks to Sam Lee, Katherine Barner,
Podcast Announcer
and Julia Sharp Levine. Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan.
Kara Swisher
And our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following this show, May James Talarico, also known as Baby Jesus, bless you. If not, you've got the Antichrist spirit. Go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for on with Kara Swisher and hit follow. Thanks for listening to on with Kara Swisher from Podium Media, New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network, and us.
Podcast Announcer
We'll be back on Thursday with more.
Guest: Astead Herndon, political reporter and host of America Actually
Release Date: April 27, 2026
Kara Swisher sits down with Vox's Astead Herndon to explore the future of American politics beyond the shadow of Donald Trump. They discuss the ongoing influence of Trumpism, shifts in right-wing and left-wing coalitions, the role of media and influencers, and what new models of political communication and policy may emerge. Along the way, they address breaking political norms, changes in voter media consumption, and potential realignments in both parties, fielding audience questions from podcast notables Lulu Garcia-Navarro and Ben Collins.
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[15:43–18:57]
[19:17–22:22]
| Timestamp | Topic/Quote | |---|---| | 04:06–07:27 | Herndon explains the "Trump-free" podcast vision and political media landscape | | 08:49 | Herndon on the lost opportunity for Republicans to move past Trump | | 11:30–13:56 | Rise of influencer politicians; authenticity & communication styles | | 15:43 | Swisher prompts about authoritarianism, democracy, and post-Trump GOP | | 17:52 | Herndon: "There was an opportunity to say, hey, let’s make this better..." | | 19:25 | Solutions, creativity, and party base desires for new ideas | | 22:22 | New American electorate and generational/anxiety shifts | | 26:03 | Splintering of the MAGA movement – Iran war, Epstein controversy | | 31:12–33:40 | Latino voters’ shifting attitudes; polling data | | 34:52 | Evangelical/Catholic support for Trump, effect of religious rifts | | 39:25 | Discussion of GOP “bench” and post-Trump leadership, Vance/Greene | | 42:24–45:14 | Lulu Garcia Navarro's expert question on insurgent party energy | | 45:21–46:59 | Ben Collins' “dark horse 2028” question—outsider candidates | | 49:04–54:07 | Democratic Party struggles: working class white voters, purity tests | | 55:22–58:21 | Gerrymandering, census, long-term party prospects and party power | | 60:38 | Herndon’s hopeful note: Positive local reporting stories from young journalists |
[42:24] Lulu Garcia-Navarro: Asks about the future of moderate Republicans and insurgent Democratic candidates.
[45:21] Ben Collins: Asks for "dark horse" 2028 White House picks.
[49:04–54:07]
[55:22–58:21]
[58:21–60:38]
[60:38–62:15]
Listen to the full episode for more granular anecdotes, deep dives, and the unfiltered takes that make "On with Kara Swisher" essential political listening.