Loading summary
Transcript56 lines
- [00:01]
A
Bing bong. I stole Brian's tagline. Signal versus noise live for episode two. Gentlemen. How's everyone doing? We got Michael, Brian, Liam. Good to see you all. It's 12:30 Eastern. A little bit behind schedule here. What's going on?
- [00:19]
B
Doing good, were you? We're a little behind schedule. Jack Jackson was on his AI Dating app, just testing the scene out there. And so we started a little late,
- [00:27]
A
but, yeah, it's not looking too good for me out there. I will say I thought I was gonna have some better results with the compare the AI companions, but no luck so far. Liam, come on, man. I need to hear something from you before we get into the episode.
- [00:42]
C
Doing great. Stand inside up here. The. The fires are crazy if you're here up in the northeast and all the smoke that's going on feels like this. This wasn't a thing when I was a kid, but, you know, things are going well.
- [00:57]
D
Yeah, the sky's on fire. Not great. Staying indoors, but living the dream. Excited to chat with you all real quick.
- [01:04]
B
It's funny you say as a kid, because I don't remember Saharan dust coming to Texas as a kid, but that's like, a thing. Every year. There's this big Saharan, like, from North Africa dust that comes in, like, lays over Texas, and I think it's on its way or here, but I don't remember being a kid. It's kind of like Juneteenth. I don't remember Juneteenth existing for a very long time. And then it just, like, popped up one. One year. So.
- [01:29]
A
All right, let's. Let's get into the topics. Just since we're still early in the show, right? This only the second one. Just for everyone's awareness here, we'll do five topics, five minutes each. Go around the horn. Is each topic signal or noise? We'll give our take and we'll be covering topics, generally speaking, whatever is most viral across technology, markets, capital, and people. And we'll get into the first one here. So we're looking at Poly Market, everyone's favorite new gambling website, on the odds for a Fed decision in July. And so, Nick, you can go ahead and kick off the timer here. We're looking at the odds, like I said, if you're not on video, essentially the odds have dropped to essentially 96%. No change on the fed funds rate for later this July. I think this comes on the back of the CPI print that we discussed in the last trade earlier this week. But, Brian, how about you go first? Is this signal or Noise.
- [02:21]
D
Yeah, I mean this is definitively noise for a number of reasons, but mainly because this is all subject to change. So the reason you see sort of the spike downward where people thought maybe there was going to be a hike was because, you know, there was concerns around inflation coming in over and then it came in under expectations. And so now, you know, the consensus is they're going to do nothing and just do what they've done for the past really 12 months is kind of just stand flat on where rates are. But again this is noise because it's basically downstream of what actually matters, which is input cost.
- [03:08]
A
I think we lost Brian. Or is that just me?
- [03:10]
B
We lost Brian.
- [03:11]
C
We lost him.
- [03:13]
A
Okay, who wants to pick up Michael?
- [03:16]
B
Yeah, because I'm like the complete opposite of the tea leave reader that Brian is. So Brian, I was just picking up because I think we lost you.
- [03:23]
C
But I'm back.
- [03:24]
D
I think I'm back. I don't know.
- [03:25]
B
Okay, you want to finish your thoughts?
- [03:27]
D
It's nice noise.
- [03:31]
B
So the, the resident non tea liberator. I see all this stuff we obviously, if you listen to Last trade don't carry a lot of water. I think where I land with this though is I do think they're setting up and we talked a little bit about it in the last show where there's a lot of statistics coming out around inflation and somehow they've manipulated enough of the algo to say that inflation is dampened. I think that there's something there to setting up where there will start to be cuts. Structurally we know that that's had to happen but people have been saying that since 21 when they started to raise rates, they couldn't do it for this long. So I think to Brian's point it's like a fool's error and to know exactly when but just structurally this doesn't work. So I would say that natural, any of the tea leave reading is noise because they can also manipulate, even though they're increasing the cost of money, other ways to bring liquidity in the system. But ultimately long term these rates have to come down. At least I think that was the common convention. But it sounds like they can keep it higher for longer for than most people can expect that are expecting.
- [04:40]
C
Yeah, I'd agree this is noise slightly from a different perspective. I mean the one thing that goes viral every time there's a CPI print is this is the most important CPI print of all time since the last CPI print. And so people just try to read into each of these a little bit too much. But I think that if you take that, take a step back, there's kind of a larger shift going on with how the Fed operates and liquidity will come into the system in different ways. Whether it's completely abolishing the amount of capital that banks have to keep on hand, the amount of money that, you know, other firms will have to put into Treasuries and stable coins. There are a bunch of other ways that are going to become more important to inject liquidity into the system other than just what is the actual fed funds rate and how large is their balance sheet. So I think, you know, each one of these is definitively becoming a little bit noisier and there are just other ways to get the objectives into the system.
- [05:39]
A
Yeah, I would say this is signal to the extent of, if you guys may recall, when Warsh was coming in as Fed chair back in May, he started talking about this idea of trimmed averages or trim means as it relates to inflation. So essentially doing even more manipulation of the data to get out outlier data. I think it was also targeted toward, let's say transitory inflation, which we all know that is simply just not true. But I think it is signal to the extent of these are going to be new ways of interpreting the data that I think will give the air cover for the Federal Reserve to get rates lower sooner than later. So I would just pay attention to this direction that we're headed because when he got into, when he got into the role of the Fed chair, everyone was expecting a couple of rate hikes by the end of the year, given just where inflation was going with the war. And instead of we're going to manipulate the data even further to I think get to the outcome where we want, have lower rates. Obviously Trump talks about lower rates all the time, stimulate the economy, asset prices, etc. And then obviously the fiscal situation needs it. So I would just pay attention to this going forward. All right, onto the next topic here. I think we did go with time for this one. So here's an article from X titled you just hired a million bad employees. Liam, I'm going to hand this one over to you. I think the thesis of the article is that AI is actually driving more jobs, not less, which is contrary to what a lot of people are hearing from the talking heads, what they're hearing from the largest AI companies. But Liam, why don't you go ahead and tee up really quick just what this is about and then you can give your take signal or noise on the topic for sure.
- [07:22]
C
This Is essentially taking a lot of the data that ramp has put out there. And Nick, if you kind of scroll down slowly a it just will show that there is increasingly firm spending more on AI than the average human employee. That firms that spend more on AI are actually seeing a ton of job growth in from their employees while firms with low to flat spend are seeing net employee growth kind of flat to down. But ultimately a lot of this just hasn't been optimized. I think that um, they kind of went through like all the token maxing, looping that isn't necessarily super effective in terms of how people are actually using the tools today. And so I think that this is a little bit of signal especially from what we've been talking about over the past 12 to 24 months that as there's more AI and it becomes easier and easier to do tasks, we'll just move on to higher leverage and better tasks to do from the human creativity and just actual value delivered to the world type of product as well as just this technology. While it's extremely transformative, it's just so early that most people are completely in equipped, including probably us especially how we'll look back at ourselves within 24 months to use this to the best of their ability, especially in a cost effective way.
- [08:48]
B
Yeah, there's a lot here. I think the core angle or mental model is there's an extreme barbell on the very far right side. It was reported, I think IBM took the biggest hit to its stock price or earnings down like 25%. And there's this realization that companies are fundamentally changing. There's ramifications around AI proliferating but at the same time on the other side of the spectrum that there will be net new firms that will replace a lot of the incumbents simply because the diffusion from how do you integrate these things from an individual's working habits all the way to an organization is such a treacherous journey. So to unpack that to like what Liam's talking about through that spectrum in the middle you have folks that are letting people use it, but there's a bunch of data issues so they're very hesitant on how do they use it. Then how do you incentivize the right usage, how do you monitor, manage and then it really ends up being in a whole re architecting as you've seen. Probably the best large example is what Blocks is doing with the organizational structure. They've open sourced and put a lot of it out there but that takes insane amount of leadership and real just like change management That I don't think most firms are willing to do. A, because maybe they don't believe in it, B maybe their stock price and other incentives don't allow for it. And then see like how do you actually have the courage and willing to eat like glass for a little bit because that's ultimately what it takes. And so we're just going to see more of this. I think the net of it though, and this ties into the ramp report, which I would suggest anybody go and find, is that there is an aspect if you can get to the left side of the barbell, which is net new emergent players stepping in and building from the ground up with the right individuals at every seat in an organization with agency, you do see more hiring, not less because you effectively get more productive output. Which is the key deal here is you need productive output, not just output, because these things will produce forever and they'll use tokens. And so I think like we have all these different precarious spots. We're in the digital age in 2026 and the the organizational construct of an enterpr of the key things here. But I think of it as a positive because it opens up the real opportunity around efficiency and free market best practices of how do you deliver the best amount of the most amount of value at the lowest cost.
- [11:07]
D
Yeah, I think that's well summarized. I mean the signal from this to me is that this is sort of reminiscent or parallel to any new technology adoption story in the sense that there's a ton of inefficiencies up front. So while sort of at current and in the near term these token costs are exceeding that the cost of a human employee and there's a ton of inefficiencies baked into that actual token usage. In order to get to the other side of that and become efficient with these tools, you kind of need to go through that process. So I would say it's not totally unexpected, it's more just a signpost that we're early in this process and basically the market and enterprises and individuals sort of digesting these tools and being able to use them in an efficient manner.
- [11:53]
A
Yeah, I would say you guys summarize as well. I don't have much time or too much to add here. I would just say that this is something that I would like to actually dig into the report that you mentioned, Michael, the ramp report, because I think there is a lot of nuance to this topic. Brian, as you mentioned as well, technological innovation, it creates opportunities, it destroys what were previous opportunities. And so I think that there's probably a lot that could be gleaned from a report like this. And I'll have to look into it more because I think generally the AI companies are talking their own book. They're talking about permanent underclass. They're talking about how no one's going to have a job. Like 50% of the people will be laid off. So I'll have to take a look at this and yeah, we'll have to move over to the next topic here because we're over on time. All right, so I'll tee this one up. 69% of Americans want AI giants like OpenAI and Anthropic to give up half of their stock to a public wealth fund. So who wants to take this one first? I think this could be an interesting topic. There's a number of different things we can discuss here.
- [12:53]
B
Yeah, I'll jump just to give the premise and I think we can go over. We're still figuring this out. I don't know if we have extra time and then we're going to do quick rapid fire at the end or we need the full five. But these are interesting topics. That was the idea behind maybe doing four because there's a lot to unpack. But the core idea I think ties back to the sentiment from before this we didn't touch on, but it is important to this topic, which is for the first time that I can remember, large corporations and enterprises have a real reason or overhang like to fire a bunch of people. Right. We've discussed it. We don't have to go into here. But there's a huge opportunity and effectively like a shield to fire a bunch of people because of AI optimization, etc. Versus like these companies just hired a bunch of people because of zero interest rate policy, etc. And you take that, you take left influence. We talked about CCP funded lobbyists when it comes to data centers and other things. And then there's this realization that the vast majority of people look at. There's all these studies are scared shitless of AI. They think it's going to take their jobs, it's going to ruin America, et cetera, et cetera. And so there's this report now that 69% of Americans want AI giants like OpenAI, anthropic to give up half their stock to a public wealth fund. And I think that independent of AI, that is a growing trend that we should all be alarmed. There's a lot of signal there on the growing divide that's happening in this economy in this country. And eventually that comes for everyone and everything. Because if you're willing to give up a private business, these are businesses at the end of the day, no matter how we feel about them, their goal is to produce value. The market should deliver if they're producing value or not or they won't get funded. And that can happen to a small business, medium sized business or individual. That if somebody feels like you don't warrant your valuation or your corporate balance sheet, that you should give it up to a sovereign, an institution like it's effectively socialism, nationalizationism, there's just a real problem there and this is going to be a growing trend we're going to see.
- [14:56]
D
I would take it in maybe a couple different ways. The signal to your point, Michael, is that it's not often that you get 60% of Americans to agree on anything. And the fact that this amount of support for something like this shows the fear around AI taking jobs and sort of, that sort of manifesting across the country, where I would say it's partially noise is like I kind of am suspect of any, basically any survey. Like surveys in general I don't think are super high signal in terms of the way they collect data. Who's answering these surveys? And frankly like if you are asked, do you want large companies to like give you money to some extent, like most people are probably going to say yes. So like I'm not super surprised by the number in that sense. So I would say in general surveys are noise. The broader trajectory and thematic of like people are worried about this and so yeah, give me a piece of it like that that is signal and that makes sense to me.
- [16:01]
C
Yeah, I'll say that this is signal as well. I think that you know the, there's one side of the barbell that is really productive, self motivated and using these tools to the best they can. And there is another side of the American population that's increasingly growing that is fine to, you know, just not really do anything, be unproductive and try to take government handouts as much as they can. And because of that the politicians have been conditioned to try to promise as much as they can for free or taxpayer funded, which is obviously what it actually is. And so this is just a continuation of the trend that we're going to see of increased, you know, democratic socialism or full socialism. And there will be more and more attempts to try to grab this and full back blowback on data centers. But ultimately I don't see why, why there should be actually companies forced to give up any of their equity. Unless there's, you know, a real reason to.
- [17:04]
A
Yeah, I would say this is signal because it's indicative of a lot of trends that we're seeing in this country today. Michael, you touched on some of it. At the end of the day, I think a lot of people are objectively priced out of the economy. They're just priced out of ownership. So people can't own equities, they can't own a home. They're struggling to have their wages grow faster than the rate of inflation. And so it's almost kind of a rational response not to say that I support it because I don't, but it's a rational response for people who don't understand what is happening to kind of want to just like take everything that you can.
- [17:37]
B
Right.
- [17:37]
A
It's obvious why there is the eat the rich type of socialist rise in this country. This is just indicative of that. And I am not surprised. Although I agree, Brian, the surveys are generally junk because there's a lot of, well, who said what and who did they survey? But at the end of the day, I would think that probably over 50% of Americans would support something like this because it's not only the, let's say the communists and socialists, but it's also people who are just fearful about what AI means for them. And maybe this to them is a way that they can participate in the growth of that economy in that industry as well.
- [18:13]
B
Yeah, there's a key point like that ties back to what Brian was saying. There's a growing trend and you just need certain anecdotes to really galvanize groups. And like you talked about, like, no matter what, as interest rates were going to rise, you were going to see layoffs. And also companies go under because they just historically had modeled out their existence was predicated on like 2% interest rates, 1%, et cetera. But the other side of it, you can make the case, I'm not saying you should, but these companies should be socialized because they were trained on all of our data. This was forecasted by somebody else before, but it's like all that data is ours and they just effectively took it. And. But we could have all done that. The opposite side of that is like, we could have all done it. We did it, they did it, they're making money. But that's what's going to be used. And that's something that, like, part of the high signal here is that this is going to be coming, especially in the 2028 election, that all of these companies and tech giants use all of our data and information to get rich. And now we should have a piece of that. And that's the slippery slope because that opens up across every spectrum. Look at like after 911 and you know the, I forget what the act was but like the continue creep. The Patriot act to continue creep into civil liberties never stops. And that's effectively once you get down the slippery slope of open AI, you're just going to continue to go until you know it's just going to get a lot worse.
- [19:32]
A
Well here's an idea. If we go over to the next topic. Rather than giving Americans ownership of AI companies, what if we just gave them free lifetime AI companion subscriptions, their favorite one, whatever they choose. So this is interesting data. If you Nick, if you can click on the graphic here so I can read off some of the numbers. This is from Michael. AI companions are eating dating. So there's this, there's a couple of different things that we can point out here and then we'll kick off the timer. So 20 million monthly character AI monthly users. Half are too young to rent a car. The Bumble stock, one of the popular dating apps of the past is down 90%. Tinder usage is down 50% since 2022. US marriage rates are at 120 year low fertility at 1.6 child per woman. 80% of Gen Z report loneliness. 45% of boomers and then 28% of US adults and 72% of US teens who report having a romantic relationship with AI. Michael, you are eager to talk about this one, so let's hear what you have to say.
- [20:39]
B
So I just think this is a, a huge canary in the coal mine of like where we are going as a society. And I, and I think it was a blind spot for myself and I'll go out there and you guys can tell me if I'm wrong for all of us because everyone here is married, has kids and like naturally when you end up in that position you generally have too much, not enough time and then you definitely like sphere of relationships tend to be in that direction either with other married couples, you know, children, et cetera. And so to see that 28% of US adults, which is still a crazy number, but then 72% of teens report having a romantic relationship with AI and that's up close to you know what, 50% in two years. And these tools are just proliferating. The only other thing you add that on the back of there's 120 year low around us marriage rate, fertility Down. But you add that on the back of what you talked about or when we talked about in the beta of this, which was under 30 years old, 50% percent of Americans are moving back into houses with their family. Like, that was the first thought that came to mind. It's like, well, that's kind of just already going in the wrong direction because you don't generally go home unless something, you know, deeply wrong has happened. Like, you've been laid off, you don't have the ability to pay your rent. But then how do you actually get out of that independent of the economic way to get out of it? Like, how do you marry somebody or date? Like, if both sides of under 30 are living at home with your parents, like, what do you do there? And this is like a downstream or upstream effect of it, I would say, I guess downstream is that people are lonely. And so it's just a blind spot because I don't know a lot of Gen Z individuals. But it sounds like this is a growing situation and problem which doesn't resolve itself overnight. And that means that it's just going to get again. Maybe that's the theme, a lot worse before it gets a lot better.
- [22:26]
D
Yeah, I frankly don't know how this resolved itself. So I think it is a strong but sad signal of societal decay. I would say, like the only, the only trends that maybe are growing faster than this AI companion apps is like gambling, sports gambling and prediction markets is like on par with this type of growth. And both point to the same sort of societal decay that stems not only from a broken monetary system, but effectively, like the downstream impacts of that. If you can't pay for quality of life, having your own place, going out, like, I think that's a big part of this data too, is like, people just don't go out anymore because it's too expensive. Like, beers are $12 at the bar. So it's like, well, I'm not going to do that. I don't have the money, so am I not going to meet anyone? Maybe I'll go on the dating apps. But now this AI person is talking to me and they're really friendly and they really like me. And this seems really easy. So it's a very slippery soap and a sad, sad signal of where we're at.
- [23:31]
A
I'm not quite there yet. I mean, I do talk to Claude all day. I probably talk to Claude more than I talk to anyone else on the team here. I don't know if any of you guys are in that same position romantically.
- [23:42]
D
Though.
- [23:42]
A
No, no, no, that's what I'm saying. I'm not at the romantic stage yet, but I guess like it's possible, it's theoretically possible, but. Yeah, I mean this is, I feel like some of the themes that we've been discussing the past couple weeks are just almost these dystopian sci fi novels or movies are just playing out where people just like are connected into, you know, whatever dopamine feeding machine, they're just pressing a slot machine. There are prediction markets, they're talking to their character AI. And yeah, I mean, I don't know, I think a lot of people, again, it's so easy to go back to just the idea of people being priced out of real life. I don't know if that fully explains it though. I wonder if there's probably just maybe back a tie back into social media and the rise of that over the past decade. And naturally that is kind of. There's a. Plenty of studies that have shown how detrimental that is to teenagers, especially women. And so I think that there's maybe just a compounding effect of these technologies just isolating people and just allowing them to kind of exist in this bubble where you don't really need to interact with anyone, you don't need to go out into the real world. So I don't quite know how this resolves. If things continue to go the way they have in terms of K shaped economy, then I would expect this to get worse. Unfortunately.
- [24:58]
C
Yeah, I mean if Claude keeps on getting better, I can see Jackson making a move. But honestly, this is a lot of noise. I think that a lot of this is downstream of just advice that many older generations have said over a long period of time. Go to the right school, get the right job and work your way up the ladder. And, and that hasn't necessarily worked out for necessarily everybody unless they're kind of on the frontier. And so I think that at this point, like, you know, the AI is sycophant, like it'll agree with you, it'll tell you whatever you want to hear. And you know, a lot of people who are getting, you know, maybe not the promotion that they want, the, the pay increase, etc. They, they want to hear that somewhere. And you know, because of that like the AI is a good companion for them. It's not great to see, but it's just the status of, you know, how unsuccessful or not unsuccessful, but like probably how anxious and depressed some of the younger generation is, which I don't have a great answer for.
- [25:59]
B
And you you hit it on it Jackson. It's less even or more upstream from social. It's the the mobile phone specifically. I mean we could talk about the computer and this is speaking to myself like we got to figure out how to step away from technology. There's no shortage and you could probably put together a whole declensing but from you see these things on Twitter around like just writing X number of sentences or reading X number of pages a day just help with your like mental and your. Your brain specifically but you think about the amount of glue between your time share and every like I hear about this a lot with the boomers on like Facebook and wherever they're just stuck there and so if you take that component and then you take not having money and you take. It's easier to just continue to scroll look at others capabilities or what they're doing and then you know be like why don't I have that and spend the money go into debt or to the point of this article is just like finding a companion via that phone versus going out in the real world. It's just putting yourself further and farther behind the eight ball and there's not enough awareness about all this to fix it.
- [27:06]
D
I know over time but one other thing Liam that you hit on which I think was super important and it's like you know, romantic aside like people don't understand that it just tells you what you want to hear and depending on how you prompted and how you phrase things like you can get it to say whatever you want it to say. And so you see this all the time on X in like replies to things like Grok is this true? Or people post what they their discussion with their AI about why they're right. It's like we need one better education on how these things actually work and why they will just say what you want. But also we need models that are more contrarian basically tell you you're an idiot and don't disagree with everything you say.
- [27:49]
A
Yeah. I don't know if you guys have ever tried to and time is just a construct so we can keep going on this topic but have you guys ever tried to prompt it to provide instruction to not just agree and like I feel like if you do that it just goes overly competitive so there's really no middle ground. Yeah but Michael, I agree with the point you made earlier on the on the phones as well. I think there's going to be a real premium to I think the analog world or just being able to not have to use technology is going to become a. An experience of only like the upper middle and very wealthy people, just because it's really hard to operate within any sort of company at this point and not have to be constantly plugged into what's going on. And so I think the dumb phones, the dumb tablets, E ink, like just getting off technology and screens and doing all that, you can obviously do it to an extent if you're on your personal time or weekends, but to actually unplug from all that, I think it's really challenging to get there. I mean, imagine if I just decided not to check my slack for a week or respond to any messages. I don't think that would go over well here. So, yeah, I don't know what the anecdote is necessarily, but it is unfortunately a massive problem. Maybe one of the biggest problems that people in this country face in the world faces. So we have our final lightning round.
- [29:14]
D
Jackson, explain the lightning round.
- [29:17]
A
Well, this is the second episode and I thought we were going to be doing five topics, five minutes each. We clearly haven't been sticking well to five minutes each and we also haven't been doing five topics. This week we're going to do lightning round. So everyone is going to be presenting one topic very quickly. We're kind of doing this off the cuff. This is the first time we're doing it, so we'll see how it goes. Michael, this was your idea, so put you in the hot seat. What's your whatever, your lightning round topic of the week?
- [29:44]
B
Well, just to round that out, the. The core idea was there was a comment and I think this is indicative of like just better programming that it would make sense to go a little bit over five minutes for these to provide enough discourse, then try to just like rip through it. And then I follow a lot of media and I like, I always appreciate when you listen to somebody and you like their takes, like what else they're paying attention to or listening to. So I figured like the fifth would be a rapid fire of like signal of the week and it can be literally anything. So the thing that I've been thinking about the most, and I've talked a little bit internally, is it was a podcast done about two or three years ago. It's acquired. Acquired if you don't know. But it's a fantastic podcast that goes deep into just business building from early stages, like you can go to Amazon, Costco, Microsoft, et cetera. But the one I'm going to reference is Visa. Visa is an insane business. I don't think most people know the story from, you know, their gross margins to the fact that they're not a bank. They're not, they're, they're nothing but everything to everyone. And it's global. And then really the amount of technology that was had that had to be created to effectively have a universal payment system, messaging system. But it's funny because when you go through the whole thing, you actually realize as great as it is, it's also kind of the, to, to its greatest detriment. It's the, it's the thing that incepted and inserted credit into our lives and everywhere that exists. And there was a lot of studies that went out because the, the original version of it just to give the last pieces. In 1958, banking used to be in a central, like state by state level. And so bank of America was another bank. And but it was just in, in California and in Fresno they dropped a bunch of credit cards. It was called the drop everyone knows about in fintech. And it was effectively a bunch of credit cards into these places. And it had all this utilization, but about 80% of the people were default. It was like this crazy losses and they realized that they need to put like wrap their arms around how do they constructively go out and build this out. But that's like the genesis of credit in this market and then it's globally and there's a lot there. But I would highly suggest anybody business building or just interested in how banking and credit has gotten this far, far a lot of crazy stories in it.
- [31:52]
D
Nice. I'll go. We don't need to pull this up. But this was tweet I saw last week from Lionel Mora on Twitter. Lionel Mora, he's the, he's a ex Google guy and he's working currently on this app called with Marble or I guess it's called Marble but the, their handle on Twitter is at with Marble app. And basically it's like a AI generated curriculum for children. So I thought this was super interesting in the context of what we were talking about earlier around the negative perceptions generally of AI. I think it's important to contextualize like there are massive positive externalities of these tools and this would be one. So I'll just read a little bit about what Lionel posted on Twitter the other day. But he says everything a child learns, basically this curriculum is everything a child learns in Primary School. 1600 concepts, 3000 connections across eight subjects. Math, science, computing, life skills. And so what you can find in this repo is every concept as structured JSON with its age Band and its evidence a child must show to master it. And so this is just super interesting to me because I think this kind of stuff is going to accelerate and proliferate at a pace that we can't really imagine right now. And we're just scratching the surface of it. And it'll be super positive just for society in general. So while there's all these negative things you can look at around AI, I think education is a super untapped area where there's going to be massive positive externality. So check out Lionel Mora on X&IT Marble app.
- [33:33]
B
Can you drop the link? That's super timely, Justin. Something I'm thinking about.
- [33:36]
A
So that'll be good for people to
- [33:37]
B
be able to go to it.
- [33:41]
A
Yeah, I guess I'll go. So Michael said it could be anything. So I'm just recalling a conversation I had last night, actually. And it's just, I think, indicative of where most people find themselves today as it relates to the market. So this guy, call it plus or minus 40 years old, works at a commercial bank, one of the largest banks in the country. And so he's pretty plugged into markets, but he just no longer can make sense of what's happening with the stock market, with real estate, et cetera. And it reminded me, Brian, of a lot of the themes that you and I have connected on over the past several years, where you have people that sit in these seats, right, and they work in traditional finance, they work in capital markets, and they're doing this professionally, but they can no longer justify or understand or rationalize why things behave the way they do. And so he kind of found himself in this weird place where he. He didn't want to have all of his cash. He didn't want to, like, continue to invest in the S P500 because the valuations are just insane by any fundamental metric. But he also doesn't want to be sitting in cash. And also in the Philadelphia real estate market, everything goes over ask, everything goes inspection waved. So that market's crazy, too. And I think it's just such a ripe opportunity for people to start to understand the significance of Bitcoin. And we actually ended up talking about that and it started to click with him. But imagine just how confused most people are, let alone the people who work in the industries, but just people who are looking to save for their retirement and trying to make sense of, well, I can't save in dollars, I can't save in bonds, the equities. I feel like the floor is going to fall out on me next year. And so it's a really tough situation. And ultimately I think that's why bitcoin is incredibly, incredibly interesting in this backdrop and provides a lot of value for people younger and older alike. And so just one anecdote that came to mind because I know there's millions of other people like him out there that feel the same way.
- [35:30]
C
Yeah, that's great. I I think that's completely aligned with how a lot of people are feeling one, one or almost two things that they're are somewhat related or thinking machines, which is the former OpenAI CTO came out with a new open weight model US based the IT seems to be not distilled based on OpenAI and anthropic models, which is kind of how all of the Chinese open source models have come out. And I thought this was super interesting because they've just put out a couple recent case studies on how they forked some models for Bridgewater to get both better performance out of the actual models and lower latency as well as just the fact that this is going to be a big topic and point in order to get more developers and data centers pushing the product too. And so it's a way to increase share if you're a little bit farther behind. And on that same point I thought that Kimi, which is or Moonshot AI, which is Kimi, their open source tool in China they just raised at $32 billion and hit over 300 million in ARR, which is a little bit looking like anthropic chart just they are open source as well, but make a lot of money off of their API feature where they host the model themselves. I think especially for larger open weight models that people can't necessarily run locally open source and open weight is a commercial strategy to help get distribution, which is increasingly become becoming one of the hardest and most commercial things you can do in a world where pretty much you can do anything now with AI. So I thought both of those were fascinating to see Kimmy going public. Should be really interesting to see how they do in the markets as of soon.
- [37:26]
A
Well, I think that's a wrap I would love to hear. I have a couple things that I would ask of the audience. So one, let us know what you would have liked us to cover this week. That'll help to get a sense of what people are interested in hearing. So if we missed a topic that you would have really enjoyed us to talk about, please let us know. You can just tag us on on X or let us know in the comments on YouTube or Spotify, Apple. And then I would also ask please rate five stars. We're almost at 100 reviews on Spotify on on RA Media. So if you could go ahead and do that, please do that for us. It's a big help. Helps the shows get discovered. And finally There's a new YouTube channel if you want to catch the videos of these streams after the fact. Signal versus noise live on YouTube. Any closing remarks from anyone else?
- [38:07]
C
I'd love to just get the audience's thoughts on what they think is signal versus noise too. Out of the links that we bring up. Agree, disagree with any hosts. You know, if you want to rank us that that works too. You know, please let us know what we can do better too.
- [38:25]
A
I'm just going to talk to my AI and and hopefully it'll tell me I did the best today. So I'm not going to read any comments on the rank.
- [38:30]
D
Spoiler alert. It will.
- [38:31]
C
It's going to be Jackson's bot army commenting on the post.
- [38:35]
A
Exactly. All right, gentlemen, it's a pleasure.