Open Circuit – "A Feast of Hot Takes"

Podcast Summary

Date: November 26, 2025
Podcast: Open Circuit (by Latitude Media)
Hosts: Stephen Lacey (A), Katherine Hamilton (B), Jigar Shah (C)
Theme: The hosts dig into the most contentious, consequential, and quirky issues shaping the U.S. energy transition, with each segment mapped to Thanksgiving dinner table archetypes—a holiday-season "feast of hot takes" examining COP outcomes, grid projections, data center madness, NIMBYism, energy efficiency, market innovation, and the evolving energy landscape.

Episode Overview

With the energy sector buzzing from tech breakthroughs, market disruptions, and fast-moving policy changes, this holiday episode is structured around a Thanksgiving feast. The crew serves up “appetizers” (headlines), a “main course” (hot takes through guest archetypes), and finishes with “leftovers”: unresolved trends heading into 2026. With their trademark candor and humor, the three experts break down the year’s big stories, apply historical perspective, and debate the narratives driving energy sector transformation.

Appetizer: Headlines & Fresh News

[05:25–18:20]

1. COP30: Another Disappointing Climate Summit?

• COP30 in Brazil wraps up with what Stephen calls “a shrug.”
• U.S. absence noted—no official representation at the climate talks.
• Many view outcomes as underwhelming, especially on fossil fuels.

Notable Debate:

• Jigar points out two positives:

  • The voluntary carbon market is shifting, allowing sovereign carbon credits, e.g. deals between Deutsche Bank and countries like Honduras and Suriname.
  • Updated NDCs (nationally determined contributions) are far more ambitious than expected, with investment projections rising from hundreds of billions to $1+ trillion/year for climate tech in developing countries:

    "The technology curve has gotten to the point where Paris did its job, right? Folks view this as a commercial opportunity." —Jigar Shah [07:20]

• Katherine: While U.S. leadership isn’t driving the show, other countries are stepping up, and “everybody else wants to keep moving ahead.”

• Stephen: COP’s consensus model is structurally stuck; real progress demands breaking talks into sector-specific coalitions (aviation, steel, shipping, methane, etc.).

  “We absolutely need to rethink here... Sector by sector is one way to do that.” —Stephen Lacey [08:29]

2. Grid Load Growth Projections: Fourfold Increase?

• Grid Strategies’ analysis forecasts 166 GW of new peak load by 2030 in the U.S., up from 24 GW projected two years prior—a major spike largely driven by data centers.

Katherine recounts historical cycles of over/under-estimates:

• The 1950s-70s: Pervasive overestimation due to assumptions about GDP and endless growth.

• The 1970s-80s: The “biggest forecast miss” (too high), triggered by oil shocks, recession, efficiency programs, and price hikes.

• The 1990s: Underestimated demand amid unexpected tech growth.

• The 2000s-10s: More mismatches, often overestimating growth.

• Today’s forecasts may again turn out inflated due to price responses, policy adaptation, and better planning:

  “As we move forward, toward 2030, that may actually be seen as an overestimation... The forecasting will be mitigated over time even though it’s still growing.” —Katherine Hamilton [12:20]

• Jigar:

  • Forecasts are “not at all accurate” but are “the best guess.”
  • Texas has handled explosive load growth—mainly with solar, wind, storage.
  • Flexibility is key: “If you did that [virtual power plants], then... bills would go down by 20% by 2030.”
  • Warns against “dumb,” outdated practices:

    “That is what everybody wants to do... because that’s how their grandfather taught them how to run the grid.” —Jigar Shah [14:34]

• Stephen: Data centers now dominate projections (55% of total), but uncertainty and grid connection friction remain moderating factors.

• Jigar: Data centers are increasingly unpopular across the political spectrum, losing “social license,” leading to political risk for expansion.

Main Course: Thanksgiving Table Archetypes

[18:20–46:46]

1. The Drunk Uncle: Who’s Loudest in the Room?

[18:20–27:58]

• Katherine: NIMBY/local opposition to wind and solar is “the drunk uncle.” Loud, but not always the real culprit; policy uncertainty and tax credit risk more often derail projects:

  “Even though NIMBYism is bad, it’s not gonna win.” —Katherine Hamilton [19:18]

• Jigar: Agrees, most are “pro builder,” not anti-renewables. Proposes smarter industry engagement with local politics.

• Jigar’s Pick: The tech/nuclear “bros” hyping AI-driven, behind-the-meter gas for data centers (and nuclear for the future) embody “drunk uncle” energy:

  “It’s just so much male energy... You don’t know what you’re talking about... you’ve heard Joe Rogan talk about it... makes me feel so manly.” —Jigar Shah [21:31]

• Stephen: Adds “water doomers” as another loud, misinformed crowd.

  “It’s a miracle that something we spend 50% of our time on only consumes 0.2% of our water.” —Andy Masley via Stephen Lacey [24:10]

• Debate: While water use is an edge case in some regions, grand claims about data centers “breaking the grid” or “draining watersheds” are largely hyperbolic. Jigar pushes back: building large, unintegrated data centers can absolutely create real costs and grid challenges, if not managed well.

2. The Pragmatic Parent: The Quiet, Steady Foundation

[29:35–40:07]

• Katherine: "Energy efficiency" is the unsung hero—quietly holding the grid together, cutting peak demand, lowering costs/resilience, and enabling virtual power plants:

  “Energy efficiency... should always be the first solution.” —Katherine Hamilton [31:51]

• Notes, however, that efficiency is under threat—politically and from rate fatigue—even in historic bastions like Massachusetts. Digital connectivity now helps target efficiency measures at peak demand.

• Jigar: "Transmission grid" as the steadfast parent, enabling everything else but often underappreciated:

  “People have started to not really pay attention to the workhorse... the grid. And that is the transmission grid.” —Jigar Shah [35:25]

• Agreement: The electric grid is a “miracle machine” performing thankless, complex labor every second, even as utilities face intense criticism and regulatory constraints.

• Humor: Katherine rolls her eyes at Stephen’s “pragmatist to victim” toast for utilities, and Jigar lampoons utility CEOs with no engineering background.

• All agree: line workers deserve the highest praise.

3. The Rebellious Teenager: Brash, Impatient, Maybe Right

[40:07–46:46]

• Jigar: DERs (Distributed Energy Resources), Virtual Power Plants—“the bratty kid in the corner” but with all the right answers for grid flexibility and bill reduction.

  “We have all these solutions, but they’re still treated like, you know, the bratty kid in the corner that just won’t shut up.” —Jigar Shah [39:32]

• Katherine: Gen Z and youth-driven electrification—especially EVs, e-bikes—are the real “rebellious teens.” More willing to change, distrustful of legacy utilities, technology-first, willing to pay for clean options.

• Stephen: The “Abundance Coalition” (think Ezra Klein, Derek Thompson) is this era’s rebellion: breaking with old pro-regulation orthodoxy, blending left, libertarian, and tech views to argue for less red tape, more building:

  “It’s an emerging, motley crew of teenagers all sitting around the lunch table together... a rebellion against the current political status quo.” —Stephen Lacey [46:18]

Debate:

• Jigar pushes back on whether the “Abundance” crowd are true progressives—sees them more as centrists, critical of blue-state regulatory bloat rather than builders of a new left-wing energy orthodoxy.
• Katherine: “Every organization you mentioned is a think tank... They don’t even get a table in the lunchroom. They have to meet in the music room.” [49:15]

Leftovers: Unfinished Business for 2026

[51:36–end]

Each host offers a story they’ll be carrying forward:

• Katherine: Data center growth—will it truly materialize, and can we find affordable, flexible solutions?

  "Is it real? Are we going to have affordable solutions to it? I think that's just going to be the gift that keeps on giving." —Katherine Hamilton [52:07]

• Jigar: Lawn care electrification (!)—a surprising and massive transition. Gas-powered lawn equipment bans and new electric solutions are being rolled out nationwide by private equity-backed firms, driven by both regulation and superior economics.

  "One of the most polluting things... are gas powered lawn equipment. They have no pollution control... the amount of local pollution... is more than all the cars in your neighborhood." —Jigar Shah [54:15]

• Stephen: Looming political realignment caused by AI/data center politics—splitting Right and Left, upending traditional alliances. Clean energy and environmentalism are diverging, with new conflicts over scale vs. conservation and investment bubbles that could drive deeper polarization:

  "Clean energy and environmentalism were kind of synonyms. They're not anymore. The clean energy industry... want[s] to build at scale... the traditional environmental movement is recoiling from this." —Stephen Lacey [58:24]

• Jigar’s parting insight: The ag sector is a wild card—farmers, who hold sway in Republican politics, are moving aggressively to solar for financial relief, and this could shift old political dynamics in surprising ways.

Notable/Memorable Quotes

• "The technology curve has gotten to the point where Paris did its job... Folks view this as a commercial opportunity." —Jigar Shah [07:20]
• "Even though NIMBYism is bad, it’s not gonna win." —Katherine Hamilton [19:18]
• "It’s just so much male energy... You don’t know what you’re talking about... makes me feel so manly." —Jigar Shah (on AI/nuclear bros) [21:31]
• "It’s a miracle that something we spend 50% of our time on only consumes 0.2% of our water." —Andy Masley via Stephen Lacey [24:10]
• "Energy efficiency... should always be the first solution." —Katherine Hamilton [31:51]
• "People have started to not really pay attention to the workhorse... the grid. And that is the transmission grid." —Jigar Shah [35:25]
• "Every organization you mentioned is a think tank. They don’t even get a table in the lunchroom... They have to meet in the music room." —Katherine Hamilton [49:15]
• "Clean energy and environmentalism were kind of synonyms. They're not anymore..." —Stephen Lacey [58:24]

Timestamps Guide

• [05:25] – COP30 outcomes and global climate negotiations
• [09:34] – New grid load projections and data center surge
• [18:20] – Thanksgiving Table Stakes: “Drunk Uncle” debate (NIMBYs, data centers, nuclear)
• [29:35] – “Pragmatic Parent” segment (energy efficiency, grid, transmission/line workers)
• [40:07] – “Rebellious Teenager” (DERs, Gen Z, Abundance movement)
• [51:36] – Leftovers (data centers, lawn care electrification, new political realignment)

Tone & Language

The conversation is lively, candid, and good-humored, balancing sharp critique with appreciation for the complexities of the sector. The hosts use inside jokes and relatable holiday metaphors while remaining rooted in historical data, policy nuance, and technical insight.

For Further Exploration

• Energy transition headwinds: COP gridlock, NIMBYism, regulatory lag, and social license battles
• Bright spots: Growing tech/economics of renewables, advances in DERs, electrification, private/public coalitions
• Emerging wild cards: Political realignments around AI/data, electrification of overlooked sectors (e.g., lawn care), generational shifts in engagement and priorities

Episode remains essential listening for anyone tracking energy and climate dynamics—especially navigating the crossroads of policy, technology, and society in the 2020s energy revolution.