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Caroline Golan
Latitude Media, covering the new frontiers of the energy transition.
Stephen Lacey
From Latitude Media, this is Open Circuit. Silicon Valley has a rich history of clean energy innovation dating back to the early days of solar. Many of the top clean energy companies were born there, and plenty have died there as well. But the Valley's relationship with energy is getting more complicated and a lot more consequential. For for the past few years, electricity has become the limiting factor in the race to build superintelligence. And the tech industry's response has been very Silicon Valley. Move fast, break some things, and relentlessly focus on scale above all else. The result, an overtaxed grid, a wave of pushback from communities, and an obsession with jet engines, small, modular, nuclear and breaking free from the grid. So this week we're going to lean into those Silicon Valley instincts and and stress test them against the reality of what's actually happening on the grid. And then we'll close out with a pitch session. We're going to give our audience the chance to pitch us on their ideas to solve the AI energy bottleneck. Open Circuit is live from Transition AI in San Francisco. Coming right up. Trillions of dollars are flowing into clean and critical infrastructure. But those investments aren't driven by technology alone. They're shaped by markets, by policy, by
Jigar Shah
capital, and by the institutions that connect them.
Stephen Lacey
I'm Alfred Johnson, CEO of CRUX and host of a brand new podcast, Critical Capital. Each episode I talk with people deploying capital, shaping policy and building the clean economy.
Jigar Shah
Tune in as we unpack how progress is actually made. Listen to critical Capital on Spotify, Apple
Stephen Lacey
or wherever you get your podcasts. What if batteries could do more than just store energy? What if they could shape it, control when and how it's used, dispatched and scaled? Well, Flexgen is turning that potential into reality. Built for utilities, data centers and power producers, Flexgen's global supply chain team, remote operating center and energy management software turn solar and battery storage into predictable, high performing assets. And because Flexgen's solutions integrate with a variety of hardware, teams can adapt as technology and energy strategies evolve. Discover how Flexgen is powering more strategic energy systems@flexgen.com. Hello San Francisco. Listen to all those powered land developers. They're multiplant. I am here live at the Transition AI conference with my two trusty co hosts, Caroline Golan and Jigar Shah. Caroline is the Chief Growth and Policy Officer at nrg. You may know her as the former global Head of Energy at Google. And she is someone who, more than anyone I know, really understands the intersection of electrons and bits. Caroline, good to see you.
Caroline Golan
Oh, that was very kind, Stephen. I know bits. I know bits of little things, I
Stephen Lacey
guess is what you're saying. So you've been on NRG for a little bit. You started co hosting this podcast before you moved to nrg. Has Jigger gotten you in trouble with the comms team yet?
Caroline Golan
No, you haven't.
Jigar Shah
I need to work harder.
Caroline Golan
It's true. No, he's been great. I mean, maybe with my family and husband for texting for far too long or something like that, but.
Jigar Shah
No, but that's not something I said on the energy gag or I mean on the open circuit podcast.
Caroline Golan
No, it is something you and I just need to work on in our personal relationship.
Stephen Lacey
Jigar Shah is an investor, a ubiquitous energy podcaster, and former director of the DOE's Loan Programs Office. How are you, sir?
Jigar Shah
I am well rested and ready to go.
Stephen Lacey
And you are wearing a suit. This is a first.
Caroline Golan
Okay. Historic moment. Can I take credit for you wearing a suit? Because it is.
Jigar Shah
Yeah. I got so much crap after the Houston Live podcast and none of it from Caroline. To be clear from people who Caroline talked to, who basically said to me, caroline really didn't like your outfit on stage.
Stephen Lacey
She has really helped us step up our game in many areas, including fashion.
Caroline Golan
Beauty is in the eye of all beholders.
Stephen Lacey
You know, I'm kind of curious. We have been talking for a long time now, through the course of the year, and we've been talking a lot about AI infrastructure, which is what we're going to talk about today. But I'm curious if you guys have seen AI bleed into your lives in any unique or interesting ways over the last couple of years. Are you users, are you seeing people around you use it in interesting ways?
Caroline Golan
I am a dabbler, personally. Yeah.
Stephen Lacey
I mean, what do you find it helpful with?
Caroline Golan
I planned an entire trip to Scotland.
Stephen Lacey
Nice.
Caroline Golan
With AI tbd. If it's going to be good, I'll come back after Scotland and tell you. This was either.
Stephen Lacey
Did you use an agent for that, an AI agent, or do you just like.
Caroline Golan
I just like did iterations and said, okay, I want a Scotland tour that's focused on folklore and dragons for my 13 year old son. And like I got amazing. Yeah. Going to be amazing or it's going to be terrible. And I'll come back and tell you afterwards.
Stephen Lacey
Oh, so it hasn't happened.
Caroline Golan
Hasn't happened yet.
Stephen Lacey
Report back.
Caroline Golan
But I'm hoping. I'm hoping. But now, other than that, I'm not using it a ton I mean, obviously we are at NRG and integrating it, but, like, in my personal life, I'm still learning how to knit, so I'm on that side.
Stephen Lacey
What about you, Jigger?
Jigar Shah
I think you guys all know that I'm not interested. I think in my entire life, I have not given a single dollar to an AI company. I think I've used the free version of Claude and ChatGPT. I did use it for my Florida spring break trip. It was amazing. But, you know, I went to this dad's whiskey night on Saturday night, and one of the dads said, I was just inspired. My son really likes license plates. So I used Claude to create this whole, like, license plate game where he could, like, you know, see the license plate, stick them in the thing, whatever. I went to bed at three in the. I was like, how many tokens did that cost you? He's like, $240. I was like, that's ridiculous. I'm sure the game was terrible. I asked him if it was multiplayer. He's like, no. Claude explained to me that you couldn't make a multiplayer game without having to spend $200 a month for the server access and whatever. And I was like, this is why I don't do AI.
Stephen Lacey
I'm a pretty conventional user. The coolest area that I've used, AI is in cooking, actually. And I will often say I. I've got these ingredients. Can you, like, help me come up with an idea for a recipe? And, like, it's remarkably effective and it's like, good at cutting back food waste. In fact, I think Google is, like, piloting something around this.
Caroline Golan
I'm sure they're piloting lots of things,
Stephen Lacey
but it's actually pretty cool. I recommend trying it. Like, I have all these random ingredients in my pantry, and I've been able to cook up some really great stuff, some not so great stuff. And it's a little hit or miss sometimes, but really effective. Okay, so to start off, I think I want to set up a very particular way of thinking about this moment. We all know the tech Bros, the crypto Bros, the nuclear Bros, the finance Bros. Well, over the last year or two.
Caroline Golan
All male. All male. Everyone in this industry is male.
Stephen Lacey
Over the last year or two, we've got a new class that I call the Electro Bros. This is a person, often from the tech industry, who is suddenly discovering electric electricity, and they think they have an answer to fixing that.
Jigar Shah
Like Ben Franklin,
Stephen Lacey
they have the answers for redesigning the grid, unlocking energy abundance. They're a fixture on X and YouTube and they've never participated in a utility rate case or built a project, but they are very, very, very confident. Jigger, do you know this character?
Jigar Shah
I do, I do. They have like 5 million podcast views.
Stephen Lacey
Yes. You seem to interact with a lot of them on X.
Jigar Shah
Well, interact is a strong word. I called them dudes, I call them dumb and then they respond and then I stop responding. I don't keep going. My whole thing is basically that if you want to light money on fire, it's obviously your choice. But when you're ready for a sober solution, we're here for you.
Stephen Lacey
Caroline, what is it like seeing people like this discover energy for the first time with such confidence?
Caroline Golan
When I was at Google, I had a separate inbox in my email for people who were just emailing me exactly what I should do with my job from within the company. It's like a 300,000 person company and I had a. When you're in charge of strategy, there are a lot of people who think that they have figured it out. And I mean, that inbox would fill up 100, 150 emails a day. Just from within Google were people who thought they had cracked the nut that clearly the rest of us couldn't crack with their one idea.
Stephen Lacey
There's an AI tool for making it all.
Caroline Golan
There's an AI tool for all of it. But when I was in grad school, I did my first big presentation at John Hopkins and I remember coming off the stage and I thought I was, can we cuss like the shit? I was so cool because everyone was so impressed with my research. And my advisor pulled me aside and he was like, okay, you've discovered your hand. There is a whole universe. Sit down. And I just think that that's part of what's going on right now, which is that everyone wants to think that they understand the universe that is this industry because they've discovered their hand. And as a parent, you see that every day. My 15 year old thinks he is smarter than everyone, so I'm sure everyone
Stephen Lacey
with a teenager can relate. Well, I bring this up because I think it's a good opportunity to think about this character as we interrogate some of the dominant storylines in energy and AI right now. And we're going to do that through some of the tech industry cliches. We're here in Silicon Valley and I think the first is the most well known trope, which is move fast and break things. Uber threatened taxis, Amazon threatened retail, social media threatened democracy and AI, depending on who you ask. Is coming for everything else. And so, while AI labs race to build what they're calling a machine God, one that could upend the workforce and reshape societies in ways that we can't predict, they are colliding with increasingly skeptical public data centers, now under some growing pressure, not just in the markets, but also on Capitol Hill.
Caroline Golan
It's not just happening in Washington. In Arizona last week, city officials unanimously rejected a proposed AI data center. In New Jersey and Virginia, rising electricity prices played roles in statewide races.
Jigar Shah
Two emotions are at the forefront of
Stephen Lacey
this protest, fear and worry.
Caroline Golan
No secret deals. No secret deals.
Stephen Lacey
So far, many of the companies behind these proposals, including Microsoft, haven't said much. And this is getting really scary now. I mean, Sam Altman had his house attacked. There was an Indianapolis counselor who supports a data center, had his house shot up recently. I mean, it's pretty dark and intense out there. And of course, this is having a real direct impact on infrastructure, too. Dozens of data centers have been derailed in the last couple of years. Equipment constraints have played a big role. But local opposition, according to Data Center Watch, has amounted to $64 billion in projects being canceled. And this opposition is remarkably bipartisan, very evenly split among Democrats and Republicans. So this move fast and break things mentality is a breaking trust beyond repair. Caroline, what do you make of the backlash? Has the scale surprised you?
Caroline Golan
No, not at all. I mean, we saw this when I was at Google. I saw this years ago and knew that we were in for a very hard go. In large part, it's because the entities that have made up the data center boom in infrastructure are not entities that ever had to think through massive political or community engagement work. They're real estate developers who were used to assembling some parcels, selling it off, and going on their way. And now you just 10x the size of those parcels and you 10x the size of those impact. But they're using sort of the same mechanics in terms of the way they go to market. And at Google, I felt like we did a really good job actually of going above and beyond. I think we did a really bad job of telling our story and working to be a local company. I think the thing that's important for everyone to understand about the tech companies is none of them ever wanted to be local companies. None of them ever wanted to be relevant in D.C. none of them ever wanted to actually be engaged in policy writ large. For the most part part, the tech industry is like, call us if policy matters. Right? It's not been something that they have A muscle around because they were a brand new industry that hadn't been regulated. Right. It's just now that we're starting to see regulations around data and data use and privacy and stuff. But for a long time they were just stay out of that. And that sort of trickled down and I think also impacted the entire space. And at the end of the day, even if you're a Google or a Microsoft or an Oracle, because I have to remember to say that every time. Right. Trigger, there's a.
Jigar Shah
They really want to be a player.
Caroline Golan
They are a play. They're a player. They still haven't emailed me though.
Stephen Lacey
We have a running joke that Caroline
Caroline Golan
always left out Oracle, I always left out Oracle. But you know, they never. We could be as good as you could humanly possibly be in a community. And the, you know, the least common denominator is still the worst actor. Right. And so you can only control for so much of it. And I also think that the worst actors really are working on a three year, five year capital cycle. So if they get their parcel, sell it off and go on, why do they care, you know? But yeah, I saw this has been coming for a long time. Yeah.
Stephen Lacey
Jigar, you have been characteristically vocal about this. What do you think the hyperscalers, the data center industry generally has gotten wrong that has led to this extreme situation?
Jigar Shah
No secret deals. No, I think so. I was downstairs after I came off the plane and had drinks with our friend Brian Janis and several other folks that were down there. And I mean, as I learned from all of these bros who have podcasts, that we're short chips, apparently, Right. So on the one hand you've got Shenu Matthew who's like, oh, 40% of data centers that were announced for 2026 haven't started construction yet. Right. And then on the other hand, they're like, even if you wanted chips, we don't have enough chips for you. Right. And Nvidia is now deciding which data centers get chips on a data center by data center basis. So they're no longer selling like chips to Google or Microsoft or whatever. They're selling it to that data center because they believe that that data center is actually going to get built. They don't want you to hoard chips anymore. They want to make sure that those chips get a thing. On one side, we clearly don't have enough chips, but on the other side, we're disrupting communities in all 50 states with fake data centers that don't have chips. And so I'm like, okay, so on this side you're lying to me and on this side they're just telling me that they don't have enough chips for the data centers that they need to put like in the ground, right? So like the part of the problem, I think in this no secret deals like environment is that people don't actually know the truth. And when you have a trillion dollar industry which has been single handedly booing the stock market in this country, you would think, think that some analyst would give you truth, would give you information. How many chips worth of data centers do we have? Like how many chips is Nvidia like shipping in 2026. And what does that translate into? Megawatts? Oh, 16. Great, so we have 16 gigawatts worth of data centers that we can build this year. Then why is anyone telling me we're going to build 32 gigawatts, right? Like clearly they're too stupid to like have a podcast, right? Like, I just think that like these are basic things that a trillion dollar industry should be able to reveal to me if they're going to BUOY the entire U.S. economy, which is the largest economy the world has ever seen.
Stephen Lacey
Okay. I mean that makes sense, but I don't think that gets to the reaction from communities.
Jigar Shah
Are you kidding me? In Ashburn, Virginia, there's a data center developer who just offered four, four million dollars a house to 173 houses. They all get $100,000 right now, this week, right? And if they all agree to sell, then they get the full 4 million. But if anyone holds out, they don't get the 4 million. Right?
Caroline Golan
Tragedy of the commons at its finest, right?
Jigar Shah
But when you have that kind of crap that happens, then what the average American thinks is that these data center companies believe they're God and they don't have to come into your community and explain themselves. They don't have to talk to you about water, they don't answer your questions. They just throw their big fat wallets on the table and say shut the hell up and just sell me your house. Right? And that is offensive to everyone, right? And I understand why all of them are like, just burn it down, right? Like I am tired of all of it. Like, you know, like my rates have gone up, my electricity rates. I'll give you one more example, right? Charles Hua, who was here today, right? He's still here. Like came out with his Powerlines report yesterday for all of the crap that the hyperscalers are saying that they're doing. Being nice. Google Tapestry Made the presentation, unlike the PJM interconnection queue, all that stuff, the utilities came out and said, you know what? We said that we were going to invest $1 trillion from 2025 to 2029. Hold my beer. It's going to be $1.4 trillion from 2026 to 2030. So what are the hyperscalers doing to make my bills go down? Nothing.
Stephen Lacey
Well, I mean, I think there's a lot of misinformation because historically data centers have not played a role in rising electricity prices.
Jigar Shah
You tell that to the communities that are shutting down data centers because every
Stephen Lacey
single, I mean, like, no, but every
Jigar Shah
single utility lies about it. No, no, no, they're not lies. Every single utility CEO that did an earnings call absolutely said that we upped our capex budget because of load growth primarily due to data centers. Every single single one of the transcripts says that. So on this side they're saying that they're raising rates because of data centers. And on this side you've got Lawrence Berkeley saying, no, that's never happened.
Caroline Golan
Well, historically rates weren't being raised because of data centers. But if it's done irresponsibly, rates will go up. I mean, the reality is, though the regulatory tools exist, the bilateral tools exist to ring fence and sleeve cost of new build generation. The problem is when you take existing generation on the grid that's already been cost allocated and divided up between different rate classes and try to increase or juice the cost of that in the market. Right. But if it's an existing power plant, that's a problem. If it's a new power plant, every single utility in this country can ring fence that power plant cost and directly sleeve it. It's just math. I think the entities that need to get yelled at are broader. Perhaps
Stephen Lacey
there's a question about what needs to be done. We have heard from a number of folks in the data center community here who have talked about the need to be in communities early often figure out what their needs are. There are plenty of people really taking this very, very seriously. When you talk about, are there specific, I don't know if you want to name names, but do you see that there is a lot of bad actors out there, Caroline? Because when I talk to a lot of the folks in the industry, a lot of them realize it's a big problem and they need to do something about it. How much is the industry not caring and how much of the industry is really taking it seriously?
Caroline Golan
I think there are bad actors. I think there are also just Lazy actors. I mean, there's a difference between bad and lazy. Yeah.
Stephen Lacey
Gas engines on tractor trailer trucks.
Caroline Golan
Yeah. I mean, I don't think anyone is like, oh, let's sit in our conference room on the whiteboard. This is how we're gonna solve this problem. By like lawnmowers? No, I mean, it's like a worst case scenario that they get squeezed into and someone comes and says, you know, like the wizard of Oz, I have a solution for you. And they take it. I mean, I think I said this on the last podcast. They're just doing what's right in front of them. I think that that happens when they don't have a competent development partner. Right. And I think a lot of the entities powered land. You know, you're. What did you call them? Land Bros. Land bro.
Stephen Lacey
I didn't have Land Bros, but yeah, Land dude.
Caroline Golan
Dude bro bros. Those folks, they aren't competent on things like due diligence and understanding power dynamics and transformers and lines and interconnection and all that stuff. So they're doing the bare minimum, hoping that they make 10, 15% return on their parcel, selling it up to someone who does know how to do that. Those people do not care what happens, and the market is set up in a way that they don't have to. And frankly, like historically, the way we built CNI load, it favored apathy, right? I mean, we created a regulatory system across the country that said CNI load is a form of economic development. Therefore they shall not be touched. It's why they don't have energy efficiency standards like everyone else's, why they don't have demand response like everyone else does, because they were considered economic drivers and keeping their rates low was good for the economy. All the data center community went into that tunnel. Now we've decided maybe they're not great for economic development. That's where the rub is. They just followed along in the same footsteps that smelters and steel plants and mining companies have created for a very, very long time. But the social contract isn't the same. That's where you see the breakdown. The breakdown is in people do not trust that the AI boom is going to bring the jobs and the economic development that traditional CNI brought. And therefore they shouldn't get the same social contract. No secret deals or no secret deals. Yeah, sure,
Stephen Lacey
We're living through a profound economic shift and energy sits at the
Jigar Shah
center of all of it.
Stephen Lacey
Trillions of dollars are flowing into power plants, transmission lines, battery factories, data centers.
Jigar Shah
But the future of energy isn't shaped by technology alone.
Stephen Lacey
It's shaped by markets, by policy, by capital, and by the institutions that connect them. I'm Alfred Johnson, CEO of Crux, the capital platform for the clean economy.
Jigar Shah
Join me for my brand new show Critical Capital.
Stephen Lacey
As I talk with people deploying capital, shaping policy and building projects together, we unpack how risk is priced, how incentives are structured, and how progr is actually made. Listen to Critical Capital on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts Batteries are doing more than just storing energy. They are helping us shape it, control when and how it's used, dispatched and scaled. And flexgen is turning that potential into reality. Built for owners and operators across utilities, data centers and power producers, Flexgen turns batteries on with its hardware agnostic, Global supply chain team and One Touch Commissioning. And it keeps batteries on with its remote operating center and energy management software as power demand rises. Flexibility and control have never been more critical. Discover how Flexgen is powering more strategic energy systems@flexgen.com or click the link in the show Notes. Let's move on to the next way of thinking, which is first principles thinking. If you spend enough time on X, you might think we already have all the answers. We just need to get to first principles thinking. It's the authentic musk Silicon Valley framing. Strip away the assumptions, ignore how things have always been done, reason from the ground up, and you'll find a solution that incumbents were too captured to see. Here's what that sounds like in energy, there's so much more we can do. There's medium speed reciprocating engines, right? Engines that spin in circles, right? So sort of like any diesel engine, right? There's like 10 people who make engines that way, right? Well, actually automobiles manufacturing is going down. These companies all have capacity and could scale and convert that to for data center power, right? Oh, what about ship engines?
Jigar Shah
Right?
Stephen Lacey
All of these engines for these massive cargo ships. Those are great. Any of these individually will do tens of gigawatts, and in a whole they will do hundreds of gigawatts. So we can add a lot more energy. And the supply chains are just way more simple than chips. There's two big arguments that come out of this way of thinking. The first, which you heard from Dylan Patel, who's the CEO of the research firm Semianalysis, posits that we have all the capacity we need from the aviation and automotive industries and we just need to repurpose it. Then the second, which I want to address next, comes out of that argument, which is that data centers should be fully off grid in the race for scale, and that there's a compelling economic case for just deploying a bunch of ship engines at this and keeping those data centers off the grid entirely. So let's go to the first point. We've talked on previous episodes about this idea of repurposing old jet engines and ship engines for power. Jigger, you've been pretty blunt about this. What's your reaction to Dylan's comments?
Jigar Shah
It would be awesome to have the Ford 3F350 truck just, like, ship Hemis and run a data center off Hemis. Oh, my God, that would be awesome. We should do a whole conference about that. Like, gosh, I mean, I agree. Those. Those, like, those engine plants, I mean, they probably are underutilized. I think we had peak ice sales in 2017 or 2018. And so. You're right. Like, gosh, I mean, I could have thought of that. I should have thought of that. No, I mean, come on.
Stephen Lacey
Like, seriously, I'm not sure if you thought of that.
Jigar Shah
I mean, just the, like, dumbest people you would possibly meet.
Caroline Golan
You're so nice.
Stephen Lacey
You're so nice.
Jigar Shah
But, I mean, like, look, I mean, like, I know a lot about this stuff. I don't know anything about, like, the BitWatch spread or tokens or whatever it is, but I also don't lecture people about bitwatch spreads and tokens. All day on my podcast, right? I talk about energy issues that I know about. Right? They clearly know nothing about, like, power. Right. I just think that, like, one of the real tells of how dumb all these people are is they talk about generation as if we're short generation. We are not short generation in this country. We never have been. We are short wires. We have always been short wires, right? So the biggest tell is when someone says, we just need nuclear power and that's gonna solve it, or we need geothermal, or we need, like, you know, hemi engines or whatever. Then you're like, oh, you really don't know anything. Poor Bo.
Caroline Golan
I'm glad it's still all men in this entire conversation. Not a single female podcaster out there acting as Tonight, yes, you can clap. That's what I'm talking about.
Jigar Shah
I mean, the sad thing is that they're Indian men, Caroline. We're supposed to be smarter than that.
Caroline Golan
Watch out.
Stephen Lacey
How are these technologies, these repurposed ship engines not part of your growth plan at nrg, Caroline?
Caroline Golan
Because we actually know how to build power plants. I mean, that's the short answer. Listen, I think that these massive off Grid data centers are going to get built. I think they will get built, I would say. You want to make a wager on how many.
Stephen Lacey
Well, this is it. I'm going to get to off grid data centers next.
Caroline Golan
Well, I mean, but that's why you do it, right? And Jigger is right. The short term issue is still wires, capacity and congestion. Right. That is the short term issue. Longer term, I do think we need generation in this country and I think we're going to need it at different levels, both on the distribution side and large scale, the transmission side. Why is it not an NRG's platform? Same answer. We know how to do this responsibly and at NRG we have residential customers. We have to go serve those customers and faithfully serve them and look them in the eye and say we did everything we could do to maximize our value proposition to you and keep your rates low. And that takes precedence.
Stephen Lacey
Can we actually, before we move on to off grid data centers, just pause on this for a second and talk about why you wouldn't use those pieces of equipment. We had a really interesting presentation yesterday from Flexgen showing how AI workloads can cause these serious torque problems for turbines, just like operationally. Why wouldn't you deploy a bunch of this stuff for data centers?
Jigar Shah
Well, I think you start with the fact that data centers are out of compliance with large loads on the grid. You can't connect a data center directly to the grid because if you did, they don't meet the ramp rate requirements. They don't mean any of this stuff. A lot of them go from 20% loading to 80% loading five times a minute. So now you need batteries in the middle to actually make sure that those loads don't take down the grid from harmonics, other things. So now you need to put in stuff like that, terraflow energy. Lots of other folks sort of do that or they're attempting to do that. And then the question becomes to Tyler Norris's paper and other folks, how do you actually get them onto the existing wires on the grid? And you saw and Orion's work with grid care and how he found 480 megawatts that Portland General didn't know that they had just by unleashing the data within the silos within the utility. And Portland General is very appreciative because they want to sell 20% more electrons because it allows them to reduce rates for all of the other rate payers. So I think you're just in this place where we all know how to help a Data center be something that actually could be embraced by the grid and like valued as a load. Right. Today they are not. Right. Today some data centers are being turned on and immediately being told by the utility company to turn off because they're destabilizing the grid. Right. And the data centers spent like $20 billion without realizing that they were destabilizing the grid. Right. I just think when you make that kind of own goal, you deserve to be flogged.
Stephen Lacey
Is that true? I haven't heard that. Is that.
Caroline Golan
Well, I mean, AI training has insane fluctuations, which we've talked about at the conference. And so yes, you need to integrate stabilizing mechanics, but ultimately the reason why this sort of Frankenstein model doesn't work is because you actually can't control for the harmonics long term. You are sort of jerry rigging an amount of capacity that you want to be able to provide. But capacity provision is different than the harmonics that you need to maintain training and to maintain stability within whatever electric generation that you're trying to pull from. The problem with the Frankenstein approach to me is that you can probably get enough electrons, but to be able to control those, integrate those and match those to a load shape that is incredibly erratic as it is, is very, very, very difficult. So you're going to sort of burn through things quickly. And the trip failure on that is huge. Right. As you start stacking things, that's a lot of the technical reasons why I don't think it works. And then what happens if you blow 10 or 20% of some of these jerry rigged motors? Do you have the internal communication to like pull down 20% of your training equally? Like all of those things haven't really been worked out. So I know entities are trying to work that out. The question is, is that scalable? I don't think that's a scalable solution. I think that, like I said, it's a Frankenstein one and done solution and will probably end up in a lot of mechanical failure and will be incredibly difficult to then interconnect to the grid.
Stephen Lacey
Well, you brought us into off grid data centers, so here we go. You actually think there will be a bunch of off grid data centers built? Are those data centers with an eventual grid connection or do you think that they're islanded data centers permanently?
Caroline Golan
I think it's an eventual grid connection. But if you think about building like a 3 to 5 gigawatt data center, which is the size of most munis or co ops in this country. Right. Or bigger, at that point you're Just creating a special interest district. So to me it's more of a political zoning question. Right. How do you create an islanded entity that becomes its own muni, becomes its own cooperative with its own self serving load and generation? And you just. It's a single meter. Smelters have done it before. Where smelters needed to be located, just happened to have a backbone of the grid nearby. But aren't there refineries that have done that as well? Yeah, and I think that's what will happen and they will build the single line, tie in as they go. But ultimately I think it's just as much a physics issue as it is a human issue, a political issue. If they're out in the middle of nowhere and no one cares about them and no one sees them, okay, you maybe get rid of that political human issue and then you have to solve the physics. And I think for most of the tech companies, like my earlier statement, their culture, their DNA is like, we can deal with technical problems. Humans kind of scare us. And they'd rather deal with technical problems than human problems.
Stephen Lacey
Totally. And that's why they want to take data centers into space.
Caroline Golan
Exactly.
Jigar Shah
But just to. Yeah, exactly. To the moon, Alice. To the moon. I think. No, but I think when you think about just these examples you're talking about smelting or refineries or whatever. I mean, for these companies, half of their cost of goods sold could be energy. A third of their cost of goods sold could be energy. You're talking about a team of 100 that work there that actually manage their energy system and make sure that it's playing nice in the system. And they're filing regulatory filings with the regulator and all this other stuff. In these places, they don't care about energy. They're like, oh, I'll pay 24 cents a kilowatt hour if it's like speed to power. When you think about just how much they're under resourcing this function, we're talking about just the initial startup phase. We're just trying to get speed to power. We just want them to turn on. That's the entire conversation that we're having here. Now they actually have to play nice with the grid for 20 years when a 1 gigawatt load just trips off because somebody ended a training run and forgot to install some inference work that takes down the grid. Right. Like when something fluctuates in a way that somebody forgot about. Oh, there was a software glitch. So sorry, I'll get clawed on it. I just Think that in General, that requires 100 people to actually work there to figure this out. That's how a refinery works. That's how a major smelter works. In this case, they're like, oh, we have a software program that manages that.
Caroline Golan
I don't think there are a hundred people at refineries working on regulatory interconnection dockets. If there were, we'd be on no.
Stephen Lacey
And their energy software is pretty damn smart.
Caroline Golan
I mean, yes, you would.
Jigar Shah
Until it's not. Have you looked at what happened in Dominion in Loudoun county recently, where they almost took down the whole grid? Right. This is what I'm saying. Everyone is just so positive about how wonderful this is.
Caroline Golan
Stephen, I wonder. There's a lot of things you haven't heard.
Jigar Shah
I just think that they accidentally tripped off 2 gigawatts of data centers in Loudoun county, and Dominion was like, oh, crap. This actually just destabilized the grid. I feel like people are just like, oh, that won't happen. Oh, whoops, it happened. But we have a software patch. It'll get updated next week.
Caroline Golan
Well, but. Right. But if they're completely off grid, they're not filing.
Jigar Shah
We just decided that there are very few of them that are going to be off grid.
Caroline Golan
We did. Okay. We decided that. Okay.
Stephen Lacey
I mean, this feels way overblown. Like, there are a lot of overblown that, like, you're afraid of these data centers collapsing the grid.
Jigar Shah
Oh, it's not overblown. Like, talk to Tom Fanning, who now has an entire operation in D.C. that does nothing but try to figure out how the data centers companies are probably gonna screw up the grid. Like, I just think that when you think about just how callous all of these people are and like, yes, they have people like Carolyn, but Carolyn left for a reason. Right. Like, at some point, people don't actually, like, be like, if you're.
Caroline Golan
I left because I had such a great desire to sit on stage and bicker back and forth with you on a podcast.
Jigar Shah
I'm just saying what 57 gigawatts of off grid data centers mean is that there's too much Mark Zuckerberg masculine energy flowing through the top of those data centers.
Stephen Lacey
I forgot to mention how effective Jigger is at deeply offending the people he's in front of when we do these live shows.
Jigar Shah
Like, these guys all agree. How many people agree with me that when someone proposes an off grid data center, it's because they probably weren't smart enough to figure out how to build it on Grid. Right? I mean it's just like that's not the way.
Caroline Golan
Wait, but how many people had built a 5 gigawatt data center on grid?
Jigar Shah
There isn't. There isn't a 5 gigawatt data center in operation right now.
Caroline Golan
Exactly.
Jigar Shah
And even the ones that we're talking about, there are 5 gigawatts are like maybe at 700 megawatts right now and they're thinking about getting to a gigawatt because there's not enough chips to run them. Oh my goodness. We're going round trip now.
Stephen Lacey
Okay, hold on. Before we move on to the next one, just like one last.
Caroline Golan
Oh my goodness. Sorry.
Stephen Lacey
Do you think there will be a significant number of off grid data centers? Yes or no?
Jigar Shah
No.
Stephen Lacey
Do you think that that means that those data centers won't get. Those are data centers that will not get built off grid.
Jigar Shah
I was just with all of the major financing companies in New York, they have said that they are not going to finance off grid data centers. They will not finance even data centers
Stephen Lacey
that eventually will have a grid connection.
Jigar Shah
Even data centers. Well, eventually meaning like if it's off grid for. If it's off grid for two years or more, they are most certainly not going to fund them because data centers that have already tried to run off grid, they break a shaft in 10 months. If you take the seven chevron GE Vernova CCGTs, you stick it in the Permian and you run them off grid with negatively priced waha gas. If one of those turbines breaks, there are no spare parts for that turbine. You're in the back of the queue with GE Vernova for five years before you get another turbine. And so then what are you going to do? Say well let's just run it off at three turbines and we'll keep the other four as spare parts. Hell no.
Stephen Lacey
That does feel to me like a serious risk. Absolutely. So let's turn to the last segment, the last way of thinking, which is 10x better, not 10% better, right? We all love the idea of moonshot thinking. I don't want to disparage moonshots here. We need the people driven by the hardest problems with the biggest payoffs. Fusion SMRs, enhanced geothermal. If any of these actually deliver at scale, they could radically change the game. And the excitement is real. I'm here for moonshots. I think Theo Vaughn captured the excitement pretty well in his conversation with Sam Altman. I think we need to get to fusion as fast as possible. Get to what? Nuclear fusion. I think that is the oh, shit.
Jigar Shah
What is it where you basically knock
Stephen Lacey
two small houses together and it takes a bunch of energy, but no carbon? Very clean, doesn't generate, you know, doesn't
Caroline Golan
really harm the environment.
Jigar Shah
And power can become, like, abundant and pretty limitless on Earth. And we get out of all the
Stephen Lacey
current problems we're in. Do I sell tickets to that or what do you think that would be like? Yeah, I think we just watch that shit. I mean, yeah, people go to monster trucks.
Caroline Golan
You don't think they'll roll up to
Stephen Lacey
watch those two things hit each other, the atoms at each other. It's pretty hard to watch the atoms with each other, but maybe with the, you know, somehow we can do it. Okay. I love that Theo Vaughn is bridging the monster truck enthusiasts and the fusion enthusiasts. But, yeah, I don't think there's anybody in this room who doesn't love the idea of fusion. But there's kind of a live question as part of this, which is like, a lot of the biggest players are hanging their hat on major tech breakthroughs right now. What are they not doing in this three, four year time frame that they should be doing if they are looking out 7, 10 years for some of these groundbreaking technologies? Transmission needs to get built right now. There's interconnection forms, interconnection reforms. There's a ton of creative work to get new capacity across the system. So this 10% solution deployed at massive scale is what will move the needle right now. And I want to run through some of the moonshots that I'm hearing that are pretty common. One, why can't we just stamp out a bunch of AP1000s and call it a day?
Jigar Shah
No.
Stephen Lacey
Why not?
Jigar Shah
I mean, why not? Like, we just finished Vogel. All 9,000 people that we trained are now building data centers somewhere in, like, 50 states. So they're gone three sheets to the wind. If I wanted to, like, restart VC Summers Construction, I'd have to, what, like, train another 9,000 people? Because they're probably not capable of being brought back to VC Summer. And then when you look at all the utility companies are like, we're not going to bet our balance sheet on this. And so now there's this mythical fund that Howard Lutnick controls over at Department of Commerce that's been funded by the Koreans and the Japanese, who love us right now because of the Straits of Hormuz. So I'm sure that they're all in on the $85 billion fund that they promised. And so, like, what are we talking about? Like seriously, like no one's building an AP1000 in this country. Certainly not Fermi.
Stephen Lacey
I read on a thread on X that we would Caroline, why can't we build a bunch of AP1000s?
Caroline Golan
I think the biggest problem with massive capital initiatives like AP1000 is that you have to trust that there is a long term price signal. I think at the heart of this whole conversation there is a general distrust that the fervor around offtake is going to maintain past five years because if something else breaks through and it's lower cost or easier to scale, then the add of the tech industry is just going to pivot and do that. And that's like an institutional problem across this entire economic transition is that there is a general feeling of lack of partnership. I think there's a lot of enthusiasm around initial seed funding. But are these entities really going to stay there for 10 years and build really hard stuff? I think that a lot of the companies in the industry will say they're unsure. And so at the end of the day, AP1000s have a lot of commercial cost over on development risk. And so you have to have someone who's like, I'm in it for the next 10 years and I'm willing to do that. There isn't a single hyperscaler out there that has a planning cycle past three years. So even if they wanted to, they can't section out capital development past 2030 right now. And these type of capital projects require a long standing trusted partner, which historically has always been the federal government and it's still not happening. What about that's a sober answer.
Stephen Lacey
And why can't we just build all new data centers with SMRs? What about that plan?
Caroline Golan
We haven't built an SMR yet. That's the reason why.
Stephen Lacey
Thread on accidentally on Twitter.
Caroline Golan
Well, we will. I mean, we will. I mean they will get built. I mean like it will all get built. I have complete confidence that fusion is going to happen. SMRs are going to happen. The question is what is going to happen between now and then?
Stephen Lacey
What's a moonshot you guys believe in?
Jigar Shah
I think we can actually use the extraordinary companies here, like Astrid's in the audience, like grid care, like Google Trapestry and we could free up 100,000 megawatts of capacity that we already have trapped in the grid next week if we just freed up the siloed data that all of the utilities have and we said, oh, you could fit 100 megawatt data center here, let's do that. Oh, you could fit a 300 megawatt data center. Let's do that. I would be super inspired by that effort, right, that human effort to get stuff done. I just think that, and I don't know why we're calling it a moonshot. We just went around the moon again. That seems very easy to do. We got to call it a Mars shot.
Stephen Lacey
Caroline, what's the moonshot you think we should be pursuing and that you believe in?
Caroline Golan
Okay, I'm going to say this a little differently. If research in battery storage and the cathode anode match, if that holy grail breaks through the entire industry, power electronics to the grid, smart home AI training radically changes. There's a lot of money and focus going into this race. But if that was to break through within the next five to 10 years, the ability for the grid to become a micro transaction, commodity transaction opens up the ability for integration and training, the ability for our old word non wire alternatives to break through. It just radically changes everything. So moonshot is to me getting over the technical barriers, the substrate barriers, the materials barriers, the electro transport barriers in the storage space. And if that happens, it is hands down the biggest game changer across everything that, that we touch and know.
Stephen Lacey
Well, we're kind of running short on time, but dammit. This is our podcast and our conference, so we're gonna take a few more minutes to bring in some ideas. I know a guy from the audience here and so let me go get my basket. So we've asked the people out there to share their ideas for solving the AI energy bottleneck and we're going to pull a few out of these out of the basket and get your responses. So here we go. These are totally at random. I haven't reviewed any of these and clearly I have not because this one is stationary Cycling fitness class. Have all the bikes generate electricity and pay the participants. What do y' all think? That seems like quite a moonshot.
Jigar Shah
Yeah. Yeah.
Stephen Lacey
Would you fund it?
Jigar Shah
You tie it in with Ozempic?
Stephen Lacey
Yeah, stick it in. Ozempic is cheap enough now. I think that could be democratized.
Caroline Golan
No comment.
Stephen Lacey
Have every state or county pledge a quantity of acres as a percentage of total solar development. Require open lands with zoning changes, include streamlined permitting. Sorry, that one. I'm trying to figure out how to ask that.
Jigar Shah
Well, I mean, the thing that I don't like about all that stuff is just that I think landowners should have the right to do what they want to do with their land. Right today. If you wanted to plant corn right now, you would lose $100 an acre. I think it is very sensible for them to sign a lease for $1,000 an acre with a solar developer and make a guaranteed profit for the next 20 years. And I don't want the county limiting it to a number of acres in the same way that the county didn't limit the certain number of acres for ethanol production.
Stephen Lacey
No comment.
Caroline Golan
No, yeah, I mean, I think that's right. I don't see that really working because then you are going to require county commissioners to understand the things that the Dude Bros don't understand already.
Stephen Lacey
So, no, do nothing and wait for the singularity. So AI can solve its own energy challenges.
Jigar Shah
Well, first they got to solve the Straits of Hormuz. I mean, if there's an AI problem that's like right there, I feel like they should just solve it.
Caroline Golan
I feel like that was like an Ice Ice baby song, like getting ready or like a wheel.
Jigar Shah
So you're going to start rapping?
Caroline Golan
No, I am not. But you can take that on. I think that'd be a good look for you. Maybe we should start doing that musical time would Chigger
Stephen Lacey
quick and massive build out of DG solar plus battery energy storage front of meter assets. All right, how do we feel about how we feel?
Jigar Shah
I mean, I think that the idea that I had suggested and Carolyn suggested are related, right? Like to free up the 100,000 megawatts of capacity on the grid, like you're going to have to free up 50 hours, 75 hours, 100 hours and storage is the way you're going to do that, whether you put it on houses or churches or central.
Caroline Golan
Yeah, Massive durms platforms integrated with hems on the distribution system. Yeah, for sure.
Stephen Lacey
Okay, last. Last one here. Using existing rail line infrastructure to transport clean energy. Maybe build transmission lines, solve transition. Sorry, this one was a little hard to read, but basically use existing rail lines to build transmission infection.
Jigar Shah
So we did this in the first day at the Biden administration and so it still exists. So there is a framework by which people can use all of the highway. Right. Of ways to build transmission lines. It's about one and a half times more expensive than what people think transmission should cost, which of course it costs an infinite amount since we're not building any. But like, so I think that that is available. And we did a study with NREL around which highways you would choose. Like I95 would be difficult, but I10 is super fast and like you all that stuff. And then the rail infrastructure is also available. Like Sue Green, which was that line that went from MISO to PJM was using rail infrastructure. Right. So I think this is something we can do. I think the problem that we have right now is that there's a governance challenge around who makes decisions around transmission. I don't think this is a cost allocation challenge as much as like, there's a lot of owners of existing transmission that don't want new transmission to get built.
Stephen Lacey
Caroline, do you buy the concept?
Caroline Golan
I mean, from an engineering perspective, yeah, but it's an intra state authority issue, so again, it's a human issue. Yeah.
Stephen Lacey
Well, if Caroline hasn't gotten tired of Jigger's rants and the data center industry hasn't come in after Jigger and the Singularity hasn't come to take our podcasting jobs, you can find us next week. This is Open Circuit. Thank you everyone for being here@Transition AI. Open Circuit is produced by Latitude Media. Caroline Golan and Jigar Shah are my co hosts. The show is produced and edited by me, Anne Bailey and Sean Marquand. You can find all of our podcast episodes anywhere you get your shows and of course watch them all on YouTube and find out about our upcoming events@latitudemedia.com events. We'll catch you next time.
This episode examines the tumultuous intersection of the tech industry—especially Silicon Valley—and the energy grid, focusing on how the boom in AI, data centers, and Silicon Valley “Electro-Bros” is colliding with the realities of the power grid, community opposition, and energy policy. The hosts challenge Silicon Valley's “move fast and break things” approach, test industry clichés against grid realities, and close with a live audience “pitch session” for solving the AI energy bottleneck.
Open Circuit delivers a no-nonsense, insider perspective on the hard boundaries of energy, the pitfalls of tech naivety, and what meaningful innovation in the energy transition looks like—beyond the bravado of the 'Electro-Bros.'