A tsunami of uncertainty for clean energy

Summary

Open Circuit Podcast Summary: "A Tsunami of Uncertainty for Clean Energy"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Open Circuit
• Host/Author: Latitude Media
• Description: The energy transition, decoded. Every week, three industry veterans explore the tech breakthroughs, market shakeups, and policy shifts that are driving the biggest industrial transformation in history.
• Episode: A Tsunami of Uncertainty for Clean Energy
• Release Date: April 18, 2025

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Introduction and Setting the Stage

In the episode titled "A Tsunami of Uncertainty for Clean Energy," hosts Katherine Hamilton (Co-founder and Chair of 38 North Solutions), Jigar Shah (Clean Energy Investor and former Director of the DOE's Loan Programs Office), and Stephen Lacy delve into the multifaceted challenges currently plaguing the clean energy sector. The discussion centers around how compounded uncertainties—ranging from policy shifts and tariffs to global political tensions—are creating significant tremors in an industry at a pivotal juncture.

Current State of Clean Energy Amid Uncertainty

Jigar Shah opens the conversation by highlighting the pervasive sense of uncertainty affecting clean energy investments and projects. He notes that this uncertainty is not driven by a single event but by a confluence of factors including international tariffs, fluctuating domestic policies, and shifting global relations. Shah states, “We're dealing with a tsunami of uncertainty that's causing paralysis in every corner of the business world” (00:56).

Katherine Hamilton echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the resilience within the industry despite the tumultuous environment. She observes, “There's a lot of questions. There's a lot of uncertainty, of course, but I would say there's also a really strong determination” (06:18). This determination is fueled by the substantial investments already made and the collective effort to push forward despite the obstacles.

Impact of the Second Trump Administration

A significant portion of the discussion is dedicated to the influence of the second Trump administration on clean energy. Shah criticizes the administration's chaotic approach, describing it as “unencumbered” and highly detrimental to business stability. He points out that the administration’s efforts to dismantle clean energy initiatives are not only counterproductive but also create an environment of unpredictability.

Hamilton adds that the administration's focus seems to be steering away from wind and solar in favor of geothermal, hydrogen, hydropower, innovation, and nuclear power. She notes, “If they want to fund projects and try to get a lot of these other sectors, get them up and going, like, you know, I'm in for that” (15:51). However, the overarching negative stance on established clean energy sources like wind and solar poses significant challenges.

Industry Perspectives: Distributed vs. Utility-Scale Generation

Stephen Lacy introduces the topic of distributed generation (DG) as a potentially more resilient and pragmatic approach compared to utility-scale projects in the current climate of uncertainty. He explains, “There's a lot of people go oh actually this seems more certain than, you know, some of the utility scale stuff I'm chasing” (07:22). The shift towards DG is seen as a strategic move to mitigate the risks associated with large-scale deployments that are heavily influenced by fluctuating tariffs and policy changes.

Hamilton supports this view, highlighting the industry's pragmatic stance in navigating through uncertain times. She mentions, “They're being very pragmatic about it and trying to find out, all right, who do we need to get to? What do we need to say and how do we keep everything going so that we can have a positive outcome” (07:18).

Policy Developments and Legal Rulings

The episode delves into recent policy developments, particularly focusing on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its implications for tax credits and tariffs. A notable highlight is a court ruling that declared the Trump administration's withholding of IRA funds as illegal, ordering the release of those funds. Katherine Hamilton interprets this as a significant win for Congressional mandates over executive overreach, stating, “Congress is not doing that job, but the court did that and it was a Trump-appointed judge” (24:49).

Shah discusses the ongoing challenges in policy implementation, emphasizing the contradictory nature of the administration’s directives which create confusion and hindrance for clean energy projects. He notes, “There's a lot of wait and see. Sort of, is this going to get better. That's going on right now” (14:40).

Sector-Specific Challenges: Data Centers and AI Infrastructure

A critical issue addressed is the impact of tariffs on the data center and AI infrastructure sectors. Stephen Lacy points out that tariffs on essential components like transformers—primarily sourced from China—are causing significant delays and increased costs. He elaborates, “There's an entire bill of materials for a project, and people are focused on the cells or the panels or whatever. But, like, but lots of those pieces are actually on the tariff list” (10:07).

Jigar Shah and Lacy discuss how this uncertainty is leading companies like Microsoft to pull back on data center projects, further slowing down the industry's growth. They examine whether the rising costs due to tariffs could derail the already shaky optimism surrounding the expansion of AI and data infrastructure.

Trends in the Market: Take Private Deals

The conversation shifts to market trends, specifically the rise in take-private deals within the clean energy sector. A quote from Edward Lees, Co-Manager of BNP Paribas Energy Transition Fund, underscores skepticism about the viability of ambitious projects amid economic shocks from tariffs. Stephen Lacy responds by downplaying the significance of these deals for the broader clean energy landscape, emphasizing that most impactful work is done by local, small-scale companies rather than publicly traded entities.

Audience Interaction: Listener Questions and Advice

The hosts engage with listener questions, addressing topics such as the influence of "abundance liberals" on energy policy and career advice for young professionals affected by policy changes. Katherine Hamilton and Stephen Lacy offer insights into the potential for bipartisan legislation and the importance of networking and flexibility in career paths within the clean energy sector.

Key Insights and Conclusions

Throughout the episode, the overarching theme is the resilience and adaptability of the clean energy industry in the face of significant uncertainty and policy-induced challenges. Despite the chaotic political environment and economic barriers like tariffs, industry leaders remain committed to pushing forward with clean energy initiatives.

Hamilton and Shah emphasize the need for strategic planning, pragmatism, and strong advocacy to navigate the current landscape. Lacy highlights the importance of innovation in distributed generation and the potential for virtual power plants to emerge as winners in this turbulent market.

Notable Quotes:

• Jigar Shah: “We're dealing with a tsunami of uncertainty that's causing paralysis in every corner of the business world” (00:56).
• Katherine Hamilton: “We're saying, like, all right, what do we do next? They're being very pragmatic about it” (07:18).
• Stephen Lacy: “I think the policy is the strengthening the reliability and security of the United States Electric grid executive order, which could radically reshape the way the US Regulates power plants” (35:47).

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Timestamps for Quotes:

• [00:56] Jigar Shah discusses the overwhelming uncertainty in the business environment.
• [06:18] Katherine Hamilton speaks about the industry’s determination amidst uncertainty.
• [07:18] Katherine elaborates on pragmatic approaches within companies facing uncertainty.
• [07:22] Stephen Lacy discusses the shift towards distributed generation.
• [14:40] Shah addresses the administration's chaotic policy environment.
• [24:49] Hamilton interprets a court ruling favorably against the administration’s overreach.
• [10:07] Lacy explains the impact of tariffs on project components.
• [35:47] Lacy comments on executive orders reshaping energy regulation.

Conclusion: The "A Tsunami of Uncertainty for Clean Energy" episode of Open Circuit provides a comprehensive analysis of the current challenges facing the clean energy sector. Through insightful discussions and expert perspectives, the hosts elucidate how policy instability, economic barriers, and market dynamics are shaping the trajectory of clean energy initiatives. Despite these hurdles, the industry’s resilience and strategic adaptability offer a hopeful outlook for the future of sustainable energy.

Transcript

[Katherine Hamilton]

Latitude Media podcast at the frontier of climate technology.

[Jigar Shah]

How does it feel having hundreds of people look over your shoulder when we're recording?

[Katherine Hamilton]

I feel like this is a huge bait and switch because when you all first got me to do this podcast, I asked Jigger, I was like, so do I have to look nice for any of these? And you were like. Jigger was like, no, no, no, it's audio only. Don't worry. So normally I'm like sitting on my floor with paper all around me, not even looking at y'all, just looking at my paper. Now it' a whole other thing.

[Jigar Shah]

And Jigger, hundreds of people are now going to know what I take out of your diatribes.

[Stephen Lacy]

Oh my gosh. Like, honestly, I think that like the production value that you bring to like making sure that I am not on the wrong side of almost every single listener that we have. So valuable. So valuable.

[Katherine Hamilton]

That works sometimes, yes.

[Jigar Shah]

I strategically keep some of those in just to keep people on their toes. From Latitude Media, this is open circuit. The business world is facing a tsunami of uncertainty across nearly every industry. Companies are pulling back investment, faced with unpredictable tariffs, a seismic shift in global relations and deep, contradictory domestic policies. Pessimism is spiking and activity is seizing up. This is hitting the energy industry hard right now, right at this critical moment when clean energy is ascendant and we are facing historic demand. And of course, there's still that little climate change problem that we can't just stop by deleting it from government documents. So this week we'll ask how this compounding uncertainty is impacting clean energy. Where are we still on track and where are the warning signs blinking red? And then we're playing a little game called transmission lines where I'm going to test my co host with some quotes from the week's news. Draw in some lines from newsmakers and see if they can identify what they're talking about. And then we're going to end with some real time listener questions. OpenCircuit is brought to you by On Energy. Some industries simply can't afford power failures. Data centers, airports, manufacturers. When the power goes out, operations grind to a halt. That's where onenergy comes in. They design, build, own and operate megawatt scale battery storage to keep businesses running and grids stable. With proprietary energy management software and in house expertise, they make energy more reliable, efficient and resilient. Need backup, peak shaving, faster interconnections. One Energy has the solutions because when reliability matters, their track record speaks for itself. Learn more at ON ENERGY OpenCircuit is supported by Kraken, the only proven AI powered operating system for utilities. Kraken's tech is helping utilities create happier teams and happier customers while significantly reducing operating costs. That is a magic combination. Click the link in the show notes or go to Kraken Tech to learn more about how Kraken is transforming operations for leading businesses across 30 countries. Upgrade your utility with Kraken. Katherine Hamilton and Jigar Shah are my regular co hosts. Kathryn is the co founder and chair of 38 North Solutions. How are you?

[Katherine Hamilton]

I'm doing great, thank you. It's an honor to be here and it's so exciting that so many folks wanted to watch us watch the sausage being made.

[Jigar Shah]

Jigar Shah is a clean energy investor and former director of the DOE's Loan Programs Office. Hello Jigar.

[Stephen Lacy]

Hello.

[Jigar Shah]

So normally when we record, it's just three of us, but today in the background lurking are hundreds of listeners watching us over Zoom. So welcome to you all and later in the show, we're going to take some of your questions. You know, most of the time when we're planning for this show, we're thinking about a specific event or news item to discuss, but right now there are just so many compounding stories that are impacting energy. I wanted to take a step back and talk about the uncertainty itself, which is causing paralysis in every corner of the business world. Over the last two decades, we've witnessed these periods of extreme change that have shaped the trajectory of clean energy. And we've talked about many of them. The 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 clean tech venture capital collapse, Covid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I would put Trump 2.0 in that category as it continues to bring extreme levels of chaos to everything it touches. So under the first Trump term, we all know we lived through it. Clean energy thrived. Sure, the administration tried to put some wonky rules in place. It unsuccessfully tried to save coal. It left the Paris agreement. But Trump, of course, could not influence the market dynamics that made clean, modern energy ascendant. But I think it's fair to say that the second Trump administration has been way more vindictive and unencumbered than many imagined. And beyond the creative and probably illegal ways the Trump team is trying to dismantle clean energy, their chaotic approach is just really, really, really bad for business all around. And so we come to this question, are we actually facing this scenario where the industry could underperform? So in March, EIA project, 93% of all new capacity on the grid will come from wind, solar and batteries. That's up 81% from last year. FERC has a similar three year bullish outlook, but we're already starting to see analysts revisit their forecasts. For example, Wood Mackenzie downgraded its five year wind forecast by 40%. And I suspect that everyone is going back to their spreadsheets right now, revisiting their assumptions for growth. So let's just kind of walk through how this uncertainty is impacting the industry. And I want to start with a vibe check right now because it's hard to like, really, the specifics change day by day. So we're all operating on vibes here right now. I can tell you from my conversations, people are totally freaked out. A lot of companies are not talking publicly. They're afraid of repercussions by, you know, criticizing the administration or just they're hunkering down. They don't want to talk about projects that are getting crushed. But, like, there's a lot of projects that are going on hold right now. So, Catherine, when you're out there talking to companies, working with companies, what is the mood right now?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, it's interesting. There's not freak out. There's a lot of questions. There's a lot of uncertainty, of course, but I would say there's also a really strong determination. Nobody's willing to give up the fight. It's like, look, we're doing the right thing. We have all this investment out there. We don't want it to go poof, and we don't want to be standing on the sidelines in case it could. So everybody is like, in the fight. Everybody has rolled up their sleeves. Everybody is trying to make sure that all the policymakers understand what's at stake. Understand? And also trying to make sure that their bankers understand that, that they're still fighting and that there's still a really good chance. And I think there is. I think there's like some really good rays of hope out there. So I think, yes, there's uncertainty and yes, there's a feeling of not. The companies that I work with are not freaking out so much as they're saying, like, all right, what do we do next? They're being very pragmatic about it and trying to find out, all right, who do we need to get to? What do we need to say and how do we keep everything going so that we can have a positive outcome?

[Jigar Shah]

Jigger, what are you seeing? Are you seeing more pragmatism than freaking out?

[Stephen Lacy]

Yeah, I mean, it's a weird thing Right. I think we're not quite yet at 100 days for this new administration. And so I think a lot of people are like, wow, they're burning hot. How much more fuel do they have in that tank? Right. And I think a lot of people recognize that they can wait them out. I do think that there are some pretty big shifts happening in people's feeling around what's going to get deployed. And so I think it was pretty clear in January that everybody was thinking it was a lot of utility scale solar and battery storage. I think today a lot of people are shifting to DG and are believing that there's just going to be a lot more certainty around doing distributed generation than there will be utility scale projects. And so, you know, that seemed like a pretty big change to me. But I agree with Catherine, like, folks are in for the fight. And I think a lot of these folks recognize that they really are dominant and there really are not a lot of other options. There's a couple of options here and there just because you've got, you know, some natural gas plants that some hedge funds bought. And so they're looking to, you know, bring some of that equipment online faster. But, you know, I think, by and large, I think a lot of folks recognize that all roads lead through clean energy.

[Jigar Shah]

Tell me about what you're seeing on the DG front versus utility scale projects. Why might we see an acceleration there relative to some of the bigger projects? Projects?

[Stephen Lacy]

So there's nine DG platforms for sale right now in the market. And so, you know, a lot of folks have been calling me and saying, hey, jigger, what do you think I should do on this stuff? And I'm like, what do you think you should do? Stuff, Because I've been working at the loan programs office for four years and people feel very confident that they can make the numbers work on rooftop solar because the price to beat is the tariff from the utility. Right. And so even if you get rid of net metering, right. A lot of commercial customers are using the power during the day, so they're not really sending power back into the grid. And they can put in batteries, right, to prevent any power from going into the grid and, and use those batteries to, you know, to offset their demand charges. And so, so the, the volatility isn't affecting utility rate tariffs. If anything, people are just assuming that their rates are going to go up by 10% every single year for the next four years. Right. So now they're, you know, on site generation as like a real hedge against that Level of volatility. And so, so I think you're seeing a lot of people go oh actually this seems more certain than, you know, some of the utility scale stuff I'm chasing.

[Jigar Shah]

What are the biggest risks that companies are facing right now, Catherine? They are just so widespread. So what are the most acute right now? Are they relative? Are they related to tariffs or something else?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yes, it's like the combination, right, of fear of the inflation Reduction act, tax credits going away and then the tariffs and what's that gonna do? What's that gonna do to Safe Harbor? What does that mean? And the tariffs have been just all over the map. So there's even though there was a pause, they haven't stopped and the uncertainty is still there. So people who are capital intensive, who wanna deploy projects that pencil out very well with the tax credits, no issues, they need to still make sure that their bankers are o all their financiers are okay because they do have this, you know, they have more capital intensity. And I would say other folks that are worried are the pre revenue folks. The folks that depended on grants and programs coming out of the federal government to try to give them, to validate their technology and to give them, you know, to help them get over that first valley of death. So those are kind of like two ends of the spectrum. One is on the deployment side and making sure that, that we manage the risk of the inflation Reduction act, anything that could happen there. The tariffs are just sort of an unknown quantity that's still hovering. And then on the other end, just the need for federal support which has been so important to getting startups going. Everything from the loan programs office of course to which is not pre revenue but that's after you've established yourself a bit but still before you're at the stage of a, of a full on bankable project. But the federal government is very important to people and I think those folks are at risk too.

[Jigar Shah]

Chigarh, what do you think are the most acute risks right now? Is it just the general uncertainty that's causing people to stop building or delay plans?

[Stephen Lacy]

Yeah, I mean the problem honestly is that there's just a lot of things that people took for granted. Right. So you know, transformers largely come from China. Right. And so are we going to have enough transformers? Maybe we'll be out of transformers in this country by June or July. And then what happens if a hurricane strikes or you have another natural disaster and a lot of transformers have to be fixed or replaced or repaired? Right. I mean, where are you going to get all Those spare parts, and how do you take the limited number of transformers that we have and figure out where they should go for the best and highest value? Right. I just think that in general, there's an entire bill of materials for a project, and people are focused on the cells or the panels or whatever. But, like, but lots of those pieces are actually on the tariff list. Right. And so people are like, well, yes, Maybe it's only 1% of my cost, but if it's got 145% tariff on it, then that is another piece of it. Right. And so I think there's actually just a lot of uncertainty where people are like, how does this work? And so now that we've paused the tariffs, does that mean that the things I was going to get from China are going to go to Vietnam and they're going to add a screw to it and then they're just going to, like, ship it from Vietnam and it'll say, originated from Vietnam, and then that only has a 10% tariff on it? Like, I just think there's a lot of questions that people have and they don't have ready answers because frankly, I would say, you know, when you listen to, like, Owen Cass, who's like the maga, like, economist whisperer on tariffs.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah.

[Jigar Shah]

Or in Cass.

[Stephen Lacy]

Yeah, or in Cass, like, you know, he's like, I'm dumbfounded. Like, you know, this is not what I wrote. Like, they're not implementing my plan correctly. And so. So I think even the people that you would say, oh, yeah, here's the plan, here's how it's going to go. Don't worry, by July, you're going to be able to do this thing. They can't tell you what is going to happen. Right. And so I think there's a lot of folks saying, should I move forward with the timeline that I have in front of me now, or should I pause three months? Am I going to have more certainty in three months? And what's going to cause that certainty? Like, for instance, the President's approval ratings are down to 40%. And so when you're down that low, that means a lot of people who voted for you don't approve of what you're doing. Right. Does that mean House members and Senate members become more bullish around standing up to the President and saying, these projects really matter in my districts, maybe it hasn't happened in the first, like, 90 days, but maybe it'll happen now. Right. So I just think there's a lot of wait and see. Sort of, is this going to get better. That's going on right now.

[Jigar Shah]

Do you guys have any thoughts on what you think the sectors and technologies are that they'll be best poised to ascend under a Trump presidency?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, I mean, there's this whole National Council on Energy Dominance. Right. That Doug Burgum, who's also the Secretary of interior, he and Stephen Miller, who does a lot of things for the president, but the two of them kind of run this and they've said, we're not going to focus on wind and solar at all, but we are going to focus on geothermal, which is the first one listed. Hydrogen, hydropower, innovation. I mean, there are a lot of sectors a nuclear power. I think there are a lot of sectors that could come up, and innovation is pretty broad. So I think while they've definitely been being negative about wind and solar, wind and solar are cost effective and they're being deployed now. So I feel like as long as we don't get rid of the tax credits, we're going to be in good shape there. And if they want to fund projects and try to get a lot of these other sectors, get them up and going, like, you know, I'm in for that. If it's geothermal and hydro, those are things we work on. And I think that would be good.

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah, I think that the challenge here that I'm hearing, I'm picking up on in my conversations is that, like, nobody's really in charge here. I mean, there's one man and a few sycophants that are like, implementing this policy and we don't know what's going to happen day by day. And so the administration comes out and says, sure, we love geothermal and hydropower. We want to keep the tax credits for those technologies. We want to build more nuclear. You've got the Department of Energy social putting out these memes about building more nuclear and natural gas and coal. So they say that that's their policy. And a lot of people are sitting there trying to figure it out, like, okay, okay. They say they want this, they say they want that. But when you look at the suite of policies that the administrat is enacting, they're all completely contradictory to getting any of these technologies built. And so I'm just hearing like, nobody out in the industry knows what the administration actually wants them to do. And you've made that point numerous times, Jigger. And I'm just hearing that over and over again that like, yes, you can try to sit there and figure out if critical minerals are going to win or if geothermal is going to win or if hydro is going to win. But like, everything feels extremely chaotic right now. And how do you figure out a winning strategy in that?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, I mean, so another thing is like some of that doesn't matter, right? Because corporates are going to buy what they need. The folks building AI data centers are going to buy what they need that they can get quickly to support their demand. And so in some ways, some of that, some of what the President likes or doesn't like isn't going to matter. Right?

[Stephen Lacy]

Well, I mean, I do think that the clear winners that I'm hearing about now are virtual power plants. I mean, that stuff is going to town, right? Because when you talk to utilities, they're saying, we really don't want to do this, but I feel like it's the only thing that we can do right now. It's the only thing within our control. And a lot of that equipment has already been onshored into the United States. A lot of it's software. It's stuff that really is not as affected by the tariffs. You saw base power get a $200 million raise last week right down in Texas. And so, you know, I might. What's weird is, you know, they're sort of just forced into the arms of grid enhancing technologies, right? Software solutions, like all these other things.

[Jigar Shah]

Well, it sounds like you both actually agree that Clean firm and DG like virtual power plants could be real winners here.

[Stephen Lacy]

Oh, for sure. I think, I think distributed batteries are going to be a clear winner. And then I think we'll see whether the rooftop solar industry joins their friends in the battery space. And then I think when you look at a lot of the thermostat companies and the hot water heater companies and some of the other folks who are doing load shifting, I think they are also very interesting. But you know, it's one of those things where, like I just talked to my local utility, Pepco, they still have not deployed a derms platform. So when they deploy VPP is they do it by email or by phone call. And so some of the utilities are really far behind and are going to need to catch up. But for a lot of the utilities, they have actually picked a derm supplier. Right. And some of them have picked some of the other, you know, sort of requirements so that they can then layer in some of this innovation on top. But it's going to be fascinating to watch how fast they do this because there's just not a lot of affordable options left within this Energy dominance framework.

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah, but are they actually affordable with tariffs? I mean, are you really going to deploy batteries at scale with such high costs?

[Stephen Lacy]

Oh, for sure, yeah. I mean, the cost of. The cost of battery cells are, you know, whatever it is, like, you know, $75 a kilowatt hour, and so you double it, it's $150 a kilowatt hour. And then the power electronics, et cetera. Remember, a Tesla powerwall, right now is $1,000 a kilowatt hour deployed. Right. And a lot of these new batteries that are coming out of, you know, base power or Franklin or some of these other folks are at, like, $400 a kilowatt hour deployed. And so they're way cheaper than what people were deploying last year. Right. And so even with the tariffs, these things are screaming good deals. And 15% of Americans now have backup power at their homes. Right. Mostly gas and diesel backup generators. And way more than that want backup power. And so they're saying, oh, if I can get basically a free battery, and then the retail electricity provider can flex it so that they can give me cheaper power in a deregulated market, I'll do that. People are desperate for affordable options.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah. And definitely more affordable than coal, which is what they're pushing to build more of it or keep them open. I mean, like, those are the most expensive, least efficient plants, and so those in and of themselves would cause rates to go up, but I don't think Ders will at all. That helps you manage it, Manage the entire system better.

[Jigar Shah]

So are we still on track to meet 90% plus of new capacity with solar, wind, and batteries? These projections obviously came out before the height of the trade war. What do you think about whether we can stay on track to meet what everyone thought we would this year?

[Stephen Lacy]

Maybe. So for 2025, the stuff that's ready to deploy is all clean. So I think the answer is probably yes. For the 2025 estimates for 2026, there certainly were a lot more natural gas generators than I anticipated that are sitting in hedge fund portfolios that are going to be deployed for 2026. Right. So that's what they announced at Homer City. That's the announcement in Texas. There's not very many of those. There's, you know, whatever it is, 7 or 10 gigawatts worth of natural gas generators that are in these hedge funds. But there are some. And so those will start construction this year. They'll be on board next year. So I think there will be a spike in natural gas deployment in 2026. But that would reduce clean energy deployment from 91% to like 81%. It's not going to produce it to 10%. So, you know, I think this year will be. The vast majority will still be clean, upwards of 91% or so. But next year there'll be a spike of natural gas deployments.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, I think we need to watch and see what Congress does. I mean, to me, that's a big piece of it is the Inflation Reduction Act. So far it seems like there's enough pushback on repealing that things look more positive than I thought they did.

[Stephen Lacy]

But.

[Katherine Hamilton]

But we'll have to see because that will impact how many projects. Maybe not for this year, but definitely for 20, 26, because a lot of folks have already put things in safe harbor so they have what they need. But I think we'll have to see what happens with that.

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah, certainly policy will play a huge role in the trajectory. And what are the most important policy levers that you're watching right now? How would you rank them? What's top on your list?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yes, well, the ones that are getting the most, I guess the most popular right now with Congress are 48E, so the tech neutral credit, and then 45X, which is the advanced manufacturing credit. So those are the ones that are getting the most airtime just because there are just so many folks that are benefiting from it and across sectors too, especially for the manufacturing credit. And so that's getting a lot of airtime. I don't know how the other ones, I mean, it feels like a lot of the other ones are also getting. I just don't work on 25D very much, but I know there are a lot of other people working on it, so maybe that one's in good shape too. But so those are the things I'm watching for. And we're just looking to see who are the folks that have said that this is really important to them. So there are 21 Republicans on a letter. There are four senators on a letter. These are all Republicans, of course, saying like, we need to not get rid of all of this wholesale. This is. These are really, really, really important to the economy of our states. And so that's to watch out for. But there are also some folks that secretly support these that aren't going to be out there saying they do, but could be helpful anyway in convincing leadership that they need to keep them.

[Jigar Shah]

There was one positive piece of news that I wanted to draw in here. A judge ruled yesterday that the administration illegally withheld funding under the Inflation Reduction act and then ordered the funds to be released. So the judge said that the White House's claim of broad powers were overreaching. Catherine, there's a lot of litigation ongoing. What does this ruling mean?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, this one was huge because it was also the infrastructure bill. So they basically didn't do this by virtue of having, you know, that this being about contract law, like this isn't about you having executed contracts, this is about you not upholding the laws that Congress passed for these programs. So it was pretty interesting. It's like Congress is not doing that job, but the court did that and it was a Trump appointed judge that made that ruling last night. So we'll see what ends up happening. I'm sure it will be appealed by the Trump administration, but we'll see. I mean Congress did pass these laws and these funds are obligated the way they should be and they should be continued to be impacted. Now, any new administration that comes in can absolutely change policy, can decide to focus on different areas, but they to then that's forward thinking, not backwards looking. Right? So that's part of the issue is like, you know, the Trump administration should have permission to do what they want to going forward because that was the result of the election. But going back and trying to claw back laws that Congress already passed is problematic. That's what that judge said.

[Jigar Shah]

Open Circuit is brought to you by onenergy On Energy is one of the fastest growing battery storage ipps delivering storage solutions for utilities, enterprises and critical infrastructure. With 300 megawatts watt hours deployed across 65 projects, their proprietary battery solutions are helping bridge the gap to a future where energy is abundant, clean and resilient. With a vertically integrated approach covering design, financing, software and operations, On Energy seeks to make storage simple. Building on this expertise, ONEnergy is now expanding its focus on the data center market as energy demands grow. In an AI driven world, On Energy is redefining energy infrastructure because downtime just isn't an option. Click the link in the show notes to learn more or Visit on energy. OpenCircuit is supported by Kraken, the only proven AI powered operating system for utilities. And let's face it, utilities are grappling with an astonishing array of challenges. And Kraken removes the outdated siloed tech that's holding back most utilities. Their unified platform streamlines and enhances operations, meaning happier teams and happier customers for a fraction of the cost. Join leading utilities across the globe and redefine the sector alongside Kraken. Click the link in the show notes or go to Kraken Tech to learn more. I want to turn now to a game. Let me break out my bell and my buzzer. We're gonna play a game called Transmission Lines. I am going to read a quote from the recent energy news, and you're gonna have to guess who said it. And then we're just gonna briefly discuss the story. Catherine, are you ready? You're the first story.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Oh, God.

[Jigar Shah]

Okay, here's the quote. This is going up against the entirety of our constitutional history and the ability of states to make responsible public policies. We are not going to capitulate. That was Philip J. Weiser, the Democratic Attorney General of Colorado, speaking about what?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, this is about the executive order that basically wants to roll back state initiatives on climate, so. Oh, I got it. Okay.

[Jigar Shah]

Correct.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah.

[Jigar Shah]

Do you want to explain what it is?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah. So basically it was an executive order that named a couple of states that named Vermont and New York and their climate programs. You know, they have some taxes on the oil and gas industry that basically would help fund climate mitigation in the state. And that's what. What the administration is really going after. I mean, states are really annoyed because states like to have their own jurisdiction. They like the state and federal compact the way it is, and they want to be able to do what they want to do. I'm not sure how this is going to end up rolling out. Of course, remember, executive orders are not statutes, they're not laws, but they do signal a direction of an administration. So what Trump did was say the Attorney General can go after states. We'll actually have to see what this would do because this sort of thing has not succeeded before in the courts, but it remains to be seen.

[Jigar Shah]

Jigger, do you think it will have any chilling effect?

[Stephen Lacy]

Oh, I think it's awesome. I mean, when you think about just how yellow bellied all of the Democratic states have been, and now that this executive order is out, they're like, this is amazing. This is our law. This is state rights. They were not defending this stuff at all. And now they're like, we're defending it. This is is. This is great. We're proud of it. We might even want to expand it. I never seen, like, such an extraordinary climate president. Seriously.

[Jigar Shah]

All right, second story. Jigger, this one's for you. Here's the quote. He tries to be funny, and he's not funny, like, at all. He makes these jokes and little asides and smiles and then looks almost hurt if you don't lap up his humor. That was a Senior Trump administration official speaking about who.

[Katherine Hamilton]

There's so many people.

[Stephen Lacy]

Jigger. Like, I feel like this is a trap. Oh my gosh. I don't know, like Zelensky, Elon Musk. Oh, gosh.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Oh, I was going to say Elon Musk, but my second close was J.D. vance, let me tell you.

[Jigar Shah]

That was an official talking to Rolling Stone about tensions in the Trump administration between officials and Elon Musk. According to their reporting, White House officials are struggling to hide their disdain for Musk's irritating behavior with senior cabinet members said to be deeply annoyed by his sense of humor. This, of course comes at a really challenging time for Tesla, which saw US sales fall almost 9% in the first quarter while the overall EV market grew 11%. Jigger, what is going on with Elon Musk? And what do you make of this historically dominant EV player suddenly really facing genuine struggles?

[Stephen Lacy]

I mean, it really is an existential crisis and I don't know what to do about it. I mean, Elon himself has always been a terrible manager, so it sort of is what it is. And he now is showing the world how terrible a manager he is. But worse than that, Tesla is in second place on almost every single metric, right? So if you were to think about self driving cars, Waymo is much better than Tesla's robo taxi, right? If you were to think about the quality of the workmanship of a Tesla car versus the other EVs available today, they're much better than the quality of a Tesla car, right? The software is extraordinary in a Tesla. I just drove one across New Mexico for spring break. And I mean the self driving car really self drove us to every single national park. It was amazing, right? But the car itself had all this indoor noise because like the window was off by a millimeter. And so like when you're going 75 miles an hour, it was loud in there. You know, I just think that we're in this weird spot where being in the lead is not enough, right. You now have all these other companies who've come in behind them with quality offerings and they have not.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Mustang Mach E, I know, like the best selling one. I see them everywhere now.

[Stephen Lacy]

The Hyundai Ioniqs are everywhere. Right. I just think that the, you know, the F150 Lightning, I just think we're in this place right now where the competition is so brutal and he's bet the entire company on, you know, like their robotaxi strategy or their robot strategy and not figuring out how to make the very best quality cars. And you know, that's catching up with them.

[Jigar Shah]

Just remember, as ugly as his behavior is, it can't get any uglier than a cybertruck.

[Stephen Lacy]

Oh, stop it. I love a cyber truck. I, I like, I have, like, a cybertruck that, like, pulls up in front of me at school drop off, and it's like, like painted camouflage.

[Jigar Shah]

I like it. Third story. Catherine, over to you. You just can't pull the rug out from under these guys. That's Representative Don Bacon from Nebraska. Republican from Nebraska. Talking about what?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Oh, yeah, he was talking about. Well, I was thinking about the biofuels tax credit. But he was talking about tax credits generally. Right. Repealing them, correct?

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah. He told reporters that he raised concerns directly with Trump on two occasions, once in the Oval Office and again during a Cabinet meeting. And he said that they were talking about polling the whole ira, and I said it don't work. Bacon explained representing a district that relies on wind power for 40% of its electricity. And of course, he really supports the biofuel tax credit and the wind tax credit. Katherine, we touched on this a little bit earlier, but are Republicans still ready to take a stand in Congress on these tax credits?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, it's interesting because I talked to a lot of them, and some of them are in the position of, like, yeah, let me know what else I can do, what else I can sign on to, especially when they find out, well, how much is at stake. So I was with a company that was, you know, had like, a half a billion dollars in a certain state that they had on the line. There's also, like, the issue of the tax base. So, like, a lot of these projects provide, you know, schools and community centers and police stations with all the, you know, the tax base to keep going. And this is going to be really hurtful. The issue is that there are a lot of. Of other things out there that folks are concerned about. So, like, what are they gonna really draw the line on? I mean, a lot of folks represent districts that really rely. Their people rely on Medicaid, and any cuts to that are gonna be really the line that they draw. But, you know, there are enough people that are. That are impacted by the credits and by our industry, and some of them are talking and some of them aren't, but they're there.

[Jigar Shah]

Jigger. Here's a quote from Tyson Slocum, director of the Energy program at Public Citizen. That means electricity is going to get expensive to bail out what's probably, at this point, one of the most expensive forms of energy out there. What was he Referring to Trump's coal policy. Yep.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yay.

[Jigar Shah]

Correct job jigger.

[Stephen Lacy]

Wow, I got one right. I am not good at this game.

[Jigar Shah]

The policy is the strengthening the reliability and security of the United States Electric grid executive order, which could radically reshape the way the US Regulates power plants. The order gives Chris Wright, Energy Secretary, the unprecedented authority to keep unprofitable coal plants open indefinitely. And it tasks DOE with creating a uniform methodology for analyzing current and anticipated reserve margins for all transmission grids and then identifying regions where margins are or could be below acceptable thresholds. And as Slocum put it, it's a unilateral, arbitrary standard that would override the established reliability. Jigger, what are the practical effects of this order on electricity markets? This is something that was attempted in the first Trump administration, by the way.

[Stephen Lacy]

Yeah, did I say that distributed generation was going to really benefit out of this administration?

[Jigar Shah]

I think I might have heard that.

[Stephen Lacy]

I just have never met a better climate president than this one. Like, just is like, throwing people into our arms. Like, we really had a customer acquisition problem in our industry. Not anymore. People are just searching lowermyelectricitybills.com and it's like solar battery storage, energy efficiency, like EVs. Like, people are just being thrown into our industry's arms by this president. It just. Honestly, I couldn't have asked for a better foil.

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah, I mean, certainly utilities are already starting to think about passing higher costs onto consumers. With electricity prices rising at double the rate of inflation last year and the tariffs are, you know, many utilities are already revisiting price hikes again. Catherine, what would this functionally do in electricity markets? How could it play out?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, it kind of. There is something out there that remains to be seen because I've heard there may be another executive order on RTOs. So, I mean, like, the RTOs have to, you know, they have to operate the grid. They have to make sure it's reliable, they have to make sure it's safe. They have to make sure that. That prices are not arbitrary and capricious. And like, talk about arbitrary and capricious. Like this whole coal thing, which is like, you know, let's keep 66 coal plants open because we don't feel like closing them. I mean, it remains to be seen, but I think that the markets, you know, I don't know how you're going to be able to change the electric markets and ferc. I honestly don't. It's governed by the Federal Power act. And I. I mean, I'm sure, they're gonna try. They are trying, but I don't. I.

[Stephen Lacy]

Do you remember our old friend Joe Daniels?

[Jigar Shah]

Yes, of course.

[Stephen Lacy]

His extraordinary report about.

[Jigar Shah]

How is he at RMI now?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, he was at uc, I think at ucs. He was at UCS when he wrote that report. And now he's at rmi. Yep.

[Stephen Lacy]

Yeah. And like, you know, Southern Company and others are basically forcing their customers to pay above market prices to keep these things going. Like, I feel like this is gonna shine a spotlight on just how much subsidies go to those coal plants. And as you know, the beginning of the Trump executive order says he wants affordable energy.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah.

[Stephen Lacy]

And so, like, the only way to make affordable energy is to shut down these coal plants. So it's gonna be amazing.

[Jigar Shah]

A little hypocrisy never stop this President. Katherine. Here's a quote from Gil Lauria, an analyst at D.A. davidson, who says Stargate was already unlikely to get to that scale even before these things happened. Happen. Give. Given the shock to the economy that these tariffs represent, it is highly unlikely that such a risky endeavor will be able to raise anywhere near that number. In terms of debt financing, what do you think he's referring to?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, they're talking about data centers and how much they'll. How many they'll be able to build.

[Jigar Shah]

That's right.

[Katherine Hamilton]

We'll see. We'll see.

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah. Certainly tariffs could derail the tech industry's tens of billions of dollars in spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. Microsoft already pulled back on data center projects around the world, halting talks or delaying developments in Indonesia, the uk, Australia, Illinois, North Dakota and Wisconsin. TD Cowan analysts wrote that Microsoft has abandoned projects that would have amounted to about 2 gigawatts of capacity due to data center oversupply relative to its current demand forecast. And tariffs are just really causing havoc as well. Do you think this. We are seeing the data center infrastructure bubble deflate a little bit here?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Well, it remains to be seen how many they actually end up building. And then once they build them, what they power them with, the power them with? I think the answer is clean energy. Although the XAI facility that Elon Musk has in Tennessee in Memphis is being run by 35 methane gas generators, which seem. Seems kind of ludicrous, but anyway, at.

[Stephen Lacy]

40 cents a kilowatt hour.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's non permitted too. They got no permits. But anyway, I think that, you know, it kind of remains to be seen. The tariff issue hasn't, you know, we haven't settled on that yet. So I think we don't know. And I think the uncertainty is what's causing the pause.

[Jigar Shah]

It does feel like we're entering a new moment now for a couple reasons. One, I think the tariffs will slow data center development, and I think that's going to challenge some of the demand forecasts. And then at the same time, there was this. We're definitely starting to see people question this idea that you just need bigger and bigger computing facilities to drive more powerful models. And Meta's Llama 4 model, which got completely panned. They threw so much computing power after that model and it just didn't perform as well as they claimed it would. Of course, Deepseek came out with their powerful model that everyone was talking about with a fraction of the computing. And so I do think that we are going to continue to evaluate whether this idea that you just need to build bigger and bigger data centers to get more powerful models, people are questioning that. Of course, we're going to be using a lot more AI, so we're just going to need a ton more data centers. Like, certainly this is a massive segment and it's going to be a really big segment for the energy sector, but I do think that there are some fundamental things like that are calling the boom into question. Jigger, any thoughts on whether we're seeing a deflation of the bubble a little bit?

[Stephen Lacy]

No. I think this deflation was already predicted. Right. So I think we all agreed that all of the craziness around 60,000, 80,000 megawatts of new load was always wrong. And we were talking about 25,000 megawatts by 2030. And I'm sticking to that number. I think I've been saying it since 2022, and I think we're on track for that. One thing that I think you said and Katherine said, which I think is true, is that we might be going away from 1000 megawatt data centers to edge data centers that are gang together to provide the same service. So I have a couple of friends that I've talked to recently who are rolling out hundreds of hundred kilowatt data centers with 100 kilowatt batteries tied to them to take advantage of Tyler Norris paper and do the demand response right there. And they're suggesting that it's only about, you know, 10% more expensive than the central data centers, but so much easier to permit and easier to integrate into different circuits in the grid. And so. So I do think you're going to see a lot more innovation in that area. But the amount of money that's being spent on you know, fiber and, you know, and putting cables into New York City. I mean, it looks like Columbus, Ohio, by the end of the decade will have a greater load than all of New York City.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Ooh. And they've got some reliability issues there, too.

[Stephen Lacy]

They do. So I wouldn't say that the bubble's deflating. I do think that the hype cycle and all of the extraordinarily large numbers were always wrong. And I think Microsoft isn't pulling back at all. I think they always expect it to have 30 potential sites and now they've just said these 15 are not going to happen. And these 15 are the ones that we're concentrating on. I don't think that they pulled back, even though that's probably the narrative that they want to put out there. I think they were always planning on picking winners and losers between all the phase one projects.

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah. And they did say that they're still committed to the $80 billion in infrastructure investments that they're making this year. I do agree it's very challenging to plan in this environment. And probably some of those were already questions. Certainly I think this market is going to be extremely hot, but definitely some revisiting of assumptions about where demand is headed. Last story. Jigger, this is for you. This is from Edward Lees, the co manager of pnb. Excuse me, the co manager of BNP Paribas Energy Transition Fund. Quote, there are a number of things that got listed that shouldn't have been. Is their technology good enough? That was Edward issuing a warning for investors who are considering what approach esg. That was him talking about a wave of take private deals.

[Stephen Lacy]

Ah. I mean, I have no idea. Idea what is going on. I feel like that was my, I think that was my quote about SPACs.

[Jigar Shah]

You know, private funds and lenders are increasingly. They see publicly traded renewable energy and clean technology companies as prime targets for acquisition and delisting. And Bloomberg had a great story on this. We're already seeing the trend accelerate. There have been a bunch of take private deals, including Brookfield Asset Management's acquisition of French developer Neon. Sorry if I pronounced that that wrong. Jigger, what do you think about these take private deals? Is this a big trend that you're going to see given the turmoil in the public markets?

[Stephen Lacy]

I honestly don't think about it at all.

[Jigar Shah]

Why not?

[Stephen Lacy]

Because I think that in general there is this mistaken notion that in the cleantech sector that the, the, the performance of, you know, the sort of publicly traded companies or the ones being taken private or whatever else actually matters and it just doesn't matter at all. The vast majority of the companies in our sector are small companies that are running, like, you know, in people's neighborhoods, in people's cities and people's towns. Right. And I just think in general, like, the fact that this company stock price is down or this company got taken private or whatever doesn't actually reflect where most of the work occurs, which is in thousands of companies and people's communities around the country. It's sort of like me saying, you know, what do you think about this propane stock going down? I don't think about it at all. There's a bunch of local propane companies that, like, serve people propane. Right. Like, I just think in general, people make way too much of these, like, big guys when, you know, like, it's actually the, the workhorses of our industry at the local level that, you know, I'm the most proud of.

[Jigar Shah]

All right, let's turn to the 10 minutes or so we have left to some listener questions. We have a bunch of them in here, so let me work through. Let's see a question here from Nathan Kreider, who asks, what are your thoughts on whether abundance liberals will have an impact on energy policy this year and beyond? Is this shift in thinking among a subset of Democrats and independents cause for hope for more bipartisan legislation getting passed, particularly an infrastructure permitting bill? So what Nathan is referring to here is the set of essays that led to a book from Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein that has been quite popular, sort of reframing this American industrial strategy and how America, and progressives in particular, can think differently about regulation and the role of government in getting out of the way to build more. Build more housing, build more energy and think about a world of abundance. I read the book. I think it's great. We are going to talk about it in an upcoming episode. But what do you guys think about how this is influencing the conversation and will it actually materialize into real policy? Catherine?

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, so one thing I would say is I think you would have to have a change in leadership in Congress to really make that happen. So Chairman Lee of Senate Energy and Natural Resources is the one who is going to be managing any kind of permitting or any other kinds of energy policy issues. He's not a spender. He does not want to spend a nickel. So everything is about the way to do things with the least amount of actual investment. So I think, think that you won't see big things. The other piece, which I think people need to understand, is like, there is A huge disconnect between what policies Congress thinks they wanna pass, even if they're big ideas, and how many people are left in the federal government to implement them because there's nobody over there anymore to do what they want them to do. So appropriators are saying like, yeah, we wanna continue with X, Y or Z programs at doe. And you wanna say like, well, have you checked to see if there's anybody over there who can actually do it for you? So there is a bit of a disconnect there. So we have to look at both sides. One is like, when are people in Congress who are the leaders want to do big things again? And then also, how do we rebuild the federal government? This is going to take some time to get people who can actually implement.

[Jigar Shah]

Absolutely, yeah. And I think out of the ashes of this current administration where we are really dismantling government, depending on what happens next, I do think it gives us an opportunity to reimagine imagine government within this abundance agenda and sort of thinking about how we revise rules, get government to move more efficiently. I think everybody agrees that we need government to work better. We don't necessarily need to take a chainsaw to it in the way that Elon Musk is, but it is an opportunity for us to like, insert the abundance agenda for whatever comes next. Jigar, what do you think? I mean, you've been talking about this as the climate technologies of the greatest wealth opportunity on the planet for a decade and a half. You have talked about the need to build big things in this country for a long time. What do you make of the way that they're articulating this agenda?

[Stephen Lacy]

Yeah, I think that in general, I'd say to your last point, I actually don't think we need a lot of new laws. I think that. I think Tanuj Dior, our good friend, had a screed recently on all the things that the Biden administration did wrong. Wrong on blue sky around the implementation of the inflation Reduction act as per the abundance agenda. I think a lot of this is really just own goals where there are a lot of ways for us to say yes. And we sort of say, well, if we don't have legal precedent from 20 years of saying yes to this exact iteration, then we need to study the problem for a year before we actually say yes to something. That whole culture has to change. Right? And we did that at the loan programs office. There were other parts of the Biden administration, I think that did a good job of that. But a lot of people basically said how do I go in the slowest possible way to make sure that no one is offended ever by anything that we do? And that I think has led to a lot of unintended consequences. Right. Which is what Ezra and I think Derek were talking about in their book. And I think we need to figure out how to move forward a lot faster and really, you know, like, not get caught up in the precautionary principle all the time of saying let's figure out all the things that could go wrong and how to mitigate. Mitigate all those things before we do one positive step forward. Right. And that just needs to go away. You know, that's where a lot of this stuff that we're talking about, EVs etc, are like, you know, these local governments, these local, like, you know, the state governors, etc, et cetera, can really unlock an enormous amount of wealth creation if they just told their agencies to stand down and get out of the way.

[Jigar Shah]

Yeah, let me see if I can rip through a few more questions here before our time is up. We usually record for an hour and a half, folks, and then we cut it down. So you're seeing us try to speed through an episode pretty quickly. Tim Tesh asks, he didn't really like your Tesla comments, by the way, Jigger. But he asks, is there a movement toward a unified industry voice talking with the art of the deal administration? Right. So we think about how tech Bros went together and got relief on the iPhone and relief in how Trump is policing social networks. We've got automakers going in together. Is there a consistent voice or are there consistent voices banding together for clean energy right now in Washington? And are they actually making an impact by talking to the right people in the administration? Quick thoughts on, on that.

[Stephen Lacy]

I mean, look, you know, I think like even the people who have been the intellectual engine behind the Trump movement is, are saying that their ideas are not being heard by this current administration and implementation is not going smoothly. Right. And so I think we're just going to have to wait to see how all of this stuff like, shakes out and who the permanent staff is going to be that wants to stay for the entire four years, years and figure out what they want to accomplish. Right now we've just got a bunch of people who are like, you know, coming in with chainsaws and stuff and like, I don't think reasoning with them is going to work.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah, I think people are trying to build relationships as they can and certainly like the solar industry is very aligned. The clean energy industry is speaking, you Know in a lot of ways with one voice. But you're dealing with a lot of people, a lot of egos and a lot of fickle actions. So you don't really know. So when you go in to meet with somebody, there's not one person. Is this the person that's gonna make the difference or is Trump gonna be able to tweet something and just completely reverse it? It's just. It's a little bit all over the map.

[Jigar Shah]

I just wanna get one question in here. Cause there are a bunch of people who are asking about the latest executive orders on stripping having agencies revisit regulations. And certainly that could impact regulations that are slowing clean energy deployment. Are there any upside to the executive orders on revisiting regulations?

[Stephen Lacy]

I mean, it requires competent people, Right? That's the problem. Right. So like, so one of the executive orders was to strip the Council on Environmental Quality from its responsibilities around implementing nepa. Right. The National Environmental Protection Act. And that doesn't really mean anything. Right. So fine, they stripped their requirement. But each agency actually has a body of work with a bunch of legal case law behind it around how they implement nepa. So DOE hasn't made a single change to NEPA since that executive order passed. Right. So now the question becomes who's in charge of setting up the process of streamlining doe's approach to nepa? I don't know. I don't even know if they've hired those people into the Office of General Counsel at the Department of Energy. And so my problem with all this stuff is I think that there are some industries that actually have a checklist. Right. I think Breakthrough Institute has done some checklists around how to make, you know, nuclear permitting more streamlined. I think some of the geothermal folks have talked about it and I think Biden administration actually implemented a lot of those already. But like, I don't know, like, first of all, who has a checklist? And then when you have the checklist, who's in charge within the White House of actually making sure that that checklist gets fully implemented? I don't know the answer to that.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yeah. And I would just say, like, they're going to be a lot of. There may be legal scrutiny from the Attorney General saying office. We've seen they've been a little bit clunky about how they've been using their authority, but they could raise major questions, doctrines around a bunch of things like say if you care about four quarter 22, 22. I just don't. This is going to cut both ways. So I honestly don't think they'll be able to do that much damage with that. And of course, that's not to say that Earthjustice and all of the folks that are in Sierra Club and all the folks that are normally fighting for environmental reg shouldn't keep doing that. That. But I just think the legal issues cut both ways. And, and so they're. The Trump administration is not always going to win in court for sure.

[Jigar Shah]

I have to pull in one more question. This is a good one. This one comes from Nicholas Burkhead who says I'm a young professional who is laid off due to canceled federal grant due to a canceled federal grant by this administration. I'm deeply committed to a career at the intersection of climate and energy, but have struggled to find the right role. Do you have any recommendations for companies or sectors that a young professional like him should be looking at right now? What I I'm sure you get this question a lot. What is the, the most powerful piece of career advice you would give to someone like this?

[Stephen Lacy]

Right now I feel like I'm channeling the Energy Gang podcast like Move. Oh like just move to a place that has the job that you want. There are so many people hiring right now across the country. There's a national actually no, Nicholas did.

[Jigar Shah]

Say should I move to West Virginia and work at the Form Energy battery factory?

[Stephen Lacy]

Yes. There's a national job fair at the D.C. climate Week coming up at the end of the month. Right. So you should go to the national job fair at the D.C. clean Energy Week at the Climate Week, I guess at the end of the month. But there are people hiring. I know that Fervo Energy is hiring a bunch of people in the West. I think there's a lot of folks hiring folks in South Dakota and North Dakota and finding people with a grade talent to be able to actually implement these really hard audacious goals is, is, is really important.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Yep, I agree. I do think there's I, I'm, I'm like the anti move person. I'm always like but people are moving back to West Virginia Jigger. So that's a good thing. But I think what you want it you want to network network talk to a lot of people and also figure out like what, what's going to make you happy? Where do you want to be where you can be happy where you're not just even if you go for a job where there are other things that are going to happy, don't make your job be the only thing move. Well that's kind of moving. It's like, go somewhere you want to be happy. I'm okay with that.

[Jigar Shah]

Well, we've got dozens and dozens of questions and I'm sorry we couldn't get to many of them, but these are going to help inform future shows and we thank everybody so much for watching us record. That is going to do it for this week's live episode of Open Circuit. Kathryn, good to see you.

[Katherine Hamilton]

Oh, it's so great to be here. Thanks for doing.

[Jigar Shah]

Thanks for everybody who came in and watched Jigger. I will expect you to be moved by next week when we talk next.

[Stephen Lacy]

I am so moved by this entire conversation.

[Jigar Shah]

Open Circuit is produced by Latitude Media. The show is edited and produced by me, Stephen Lacy and Sean Marquan is our Technical director. Ann Bailey is our senior podcast editor. Latitude Media is supported by Prelude Ventures. Prelude backs visionaries accelerating climate innovation that will reshape the global economy for the betterment of people and planet. Learn [e-mail] and of course, for more in depth reporting on the topics that we cover on this show, sign up for Latitude Media's newsletters. Just go to Latitude Media and hit subscribe and we thank you so much for being here. We'll see you next week. Bye everyone.