Open Circuit – “Bill Gates caused a climate meltdown”

Episode Date: November 7, 2025
Podcast by Latitude Media
Live from Greentown Labs

Overview

In this lively live episode, the Open Circuit team wades into the uproar over Bill Gates' recent climate letter and its implications for climate tech, energy policy, and startup innovation. Hosts Steven Lacy, Kathryn Hamilton, and Jigar Shah dissect Gates’ arguments, explore the ongoing deployment vs. innovation debate, discuss shifts in the climate tech investment landscape, and muse on what history will remember about this moment in industrial transformation. The episode closes with a future-looking thought experiment about the next 250 years of innovation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Elections, Electricity, and Affordability

• Electricity prices and affordability played a major role in recent elections across Georgia, Virginia, and New Jersey.
  • Kathryn Hamilton (04:40): “Affordability is everything. It really is. And you can see that throughout the races… Climate change language is even coming back into Texas school curriculums.”
• Increasingly, affordability and climate are being linked in both public perception and policy debates.
  • Jigar Shah (06:08): “[Candidates] ran specifically on climate… they actually want to honor all the laws that have been passed in Virginia to scale up all of this American technology that Dominion has been holding us back from for years… Climate was, like, on the ballot.”
  • Steven Lacy (07:13): “I don’t know that climate is on the ballot, though. I think it’s really more about bread and butter affordability…”

2. Bill Gates Climate Letter – Controversy Unpacked

• Context: Bill Gates published a memo calling for more focus on innovation and public health alongside climate action, downplaying doomsday scenarios. Media and political worlds react with outsized fury, incorrectly interpreting Gates’ position as a reversal or denial of climate concerns.
  • Steven Lacy (09:07): “The reactions broke down on pretty predictable partisan lines… Those on the right celebrated Gates’ supposed reversal… The left saw it as bowing down to Trump… But I think there’s something else going on here: this old idea that we have to make this trade-off, that somehow deployment of clean solutions is incompatible with economic growth and improving lives.”

Gates’ Core Points (as summarized by Hamilton, 11:00–13:09):

• Climate change is serious, and we need to keep investing in zero-emission technologies (“we need to keep investing in this”)
• We can’t trade off public health/development funding for climate funding (health and climate are linked, these are not oppositional)
• Human welfare should be at the center of climate policy (drive ‘green premium’ to zero, measure impact rigorously)

Notable Quotes:

• Kathryn Hamilton (11:00): “It’s funny how people took him saying climate change will not lead to humanity’s demise to saying climate change is a hoax. That’s not what he said…”
• Jigar Shah (13:57): “This is the only topic I’ve resented you for. I can’t believe I have to spend five seconds talking about a person who is so uneducated… When you’re worth $200 billion, you’ve invested $2 billion in lawn care services, I’m sure.”

Critiques of Bill Gates’ Approach:

• Gates is “stuck on innovation,” often to the detriment of deployment of existing scalable solutions like solar, wind, and heat pumps.
• Jigar Shah (14:21): “His point of view has not changed since 2007. He has said we need breakthrough technologies, and infers that the technologies we have now are not worth deploying at scale.”
• Gates’ high-profile investments (Breakthrough Energy, etc.) have sometimes distracted from scalable, proven solutions and policy advocacy for deployment at scale.
• Gates’ team is packed with talent, but the money and policy focus remains misaligned with the immediate needs for mass deployment and affordability.
  • Jigar Shah (23:52): “He doesn’t care… For him, technology itself is the end point. That once you invest in something that is so freakin’ amazing that he’s going to go on Fareed Zakaria and Fareed Zakaria’s going to be like, ‘I love you, Bill Gates’… And this sector doesn’t work that way.”
• Gates allegedly underrates the current impact of wind and solar, and doesn’t focus on areas like electricity access (a key HDI driver).
  • Jigar Shah (19:05): “What is the number one determinant of the Human Development Index? Access to electricity. Who is going to solve that problem? U.S. solar and battery storage entrepreneurs…”

Policy and Near-term Impact

• Gates’ portfolio has some success stories, but major investments (fission, fusion, etc.) are long-term bets.
• Kathryn Hamilton (21:30): “If he’s really going to try to make a statement and be a thought leader… he needs to pick up some different technologies.”
• Impact needs come from both innovation and rapid deployment + supporting policy levers—workforce development, market access, regulatory frameworks.

Memorable Moments:

• Steven Lacy (16:53, on Paris Agreement): “He screwed up the entire media and comm strategy for the Paris Agreement.”
• Jigar Shah (26:39): “Do not put it in my face. Through Gates Notes. You have 70 people around you who are brilliant—can’t one of them stop you from hitting send?”

Closing the Debate:

• Kathryn Hamilton (27:26): “A lot of this is just like doing a million small actions that add up.”

3. Climate Tech Capital and Startups: The New Normal

• Despite volatility, there’s a “super-cycle” of investment—AI/data centers, re-shoring, supply chains are driving infrastructure capital into clean energy.
  • Steven Lacy (32:09): “We’ve got this major capital spending boom on AI. Add in energy security, supply chain reshoring… it’s suddenly like a different landscape for investors.”
• Family office capital and infrastructure investors are stepping in, alongside venture capital and public markets.
  • Jigar Shah (32:09): “If you ask [solar, battery people] what capital sources do they have access to? Unlimited… All of the business models that people have been using for infrastructure are now being used for our sector.”
• Exit strategies are shifting: less focus on unicorns, more on infrastructure-scale, sustainable exits.
  • Jigar Shah (39:04): “Once you hit product market fit and have two happy customers, there’s someone that’s willing to buy your company. You just sell your company for $50 million and make a lot of money because you’ve only raised $6 million…”

Policy Realities in the Trump Era

• Companies are pulling back from federal policy, focusing on state levers – but neglecting policy is a mistake, as regulatory moves still dictate adoption.
  • Kathryn Hamilton (35:13): “If you’re doing business in a market that is electric and has anything to do with the utility, every single decision is made by the stroke of a pen of a regulator, and you better be engaged in policy…”
• Introduction of Common Charge, a 501c3 movement focused on affordability and reliability for customers (37:50).

4. What Technologies Will Define This Era? (The Next 250 Years)

Hosts speculate what history will remember from our era 250 years from now:

• Kathryn Hamilton (45:05): “My hope is that in 250 years we have a three-day work week… as a result of AI.”
• Steven Lacy (45:59): “Synthetic biology… Instead of extracting to produce materials, we will use synthetic biology to create those materials… The AI’s acceleration of science… will be really foundational.”
• Jigar Shah (47:29): “We’ll have gotten rid of all transmission lines. I think all power will be beamed… And all energy that we don’t need locally will be produced on the moon and then beamed down.”

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “[Bill] started this whole journey… that the technologies we have today are not worth deploying at scale. He says that four times in this piece as well. His point of view has not changed since 2007.”
  — Jigar Shah (14:21)

• “Affordability is everything. You can see that throughout the races.”
  — Kathryn Hamilton (04:40)

• “He doesn’t care… For him, technology itself is the end point… And this sector doesn’t work that way.”
  — Jigar Shah (23:52–25:24)

• “In 2012, he says solar’s never going to amount to anything. It’s a cute technology.”
  — Jigar Shah (15:16)

• “He is very much stuck in the… investing in the big stuff… But then don’t pretend you want to have your near term impact.”
  — Kathryn Hamilton (27:08)

• “If you can’t succeed in this moment, you can’t succeed. And so take a hint. People are desperate for solutions.”
  — Jigar Shah (41:41)

Timeline of Major Segments

• [04:10] – [07:38]: Elections, affordability, and climate as a pivoting issue in policy
• [07:38] – [29:21]: In-depth discussion on Bill Gates’ climate memo; Gates vs. deployment debate
• [30:14] – [43:48]: Climate tech investment super-cycle, startup exits, and policy strategy under “Trump 2.0”
• [43:48] – end: Speculations on defining next-century innovations

Tone & Style

The episode is lively, at times irreverent, and deeply informed, mixing industry-insider wisdom with pointed critiques and humor. Jigar Shah provides sharp, occasionally biting commentary. Kathryn Hamilton delivers policy experience and pragmatic advice. Steven Lacy keeps the conversation moving and grounds it in broader context.

Summary Takeaways

• The debate over innovation vs. deployment is far from settled, but the industry’s immediate need is toward scaling known solutions and supporting them with smart policy.
• Gates’ memo is less a denial and more a signal of the persistent disconnect between “big bets” and boots-on-the-ground climate action.
• The climate tech capital landscape is rapidly evolving, with new forms of financing and exit strategies.
• The urgency and opportunity in clean infrastructure have never been greater—companies and investors who can’t gain traction now may not get another window this good.
• History may remember this era for AI, synthetic biology, distributed and lunar power, or something even wilder—but the choices made around policy and deployment could be just as consequential.