Open Circuit – “Is this geothermal’s breakout moment?”

Podcast: Open Circuit
Host: Latitude Media
Date: February 6, 2026
Episode Theme:
A deep-dive into geothermal energy’s long-awaited moment in the clean energy spotlight. With Fervo Energy on the verge of a major IPO, the panel explores whether geothermal is finally bankable and ready to scale, how the sector compares to other energy transition technologies, and what this all means as massive capital shifts toward “always-on,” carbon-free power in an era of surging data center demand and AI-driven load growth. The episode also considers what happens to fossil fuel infrastructure if the energy transition accelerates more quickly than expected.

Main Topics & Discussion Flow

1. Setting the Stage: Is Geothermal Finally Ready?

• Fervo Energy, seen as a leader among next-gen geothermal companies, is prepping for an IPO (~$1.5B raised), seen as a pivotal “price discovery” for geothermal’s investability.
• Recent years have brought >$1B in venture capital to geothermal startups (Fervo, Sage, Zanskar, Quaise, Ever, XGS, Dandelion, etc.).
• Geothermal companies are signing contracts with tech giants to serve data center demand, aided by their oil-and-gas sector connections—creating rare bipartisan support.
• Core Question: Is this the commercialization & scaling moment the industry has always promised but never achieved?
  • “Everyone says we need firm, always-on, carbon-free power. Now investors must decide what that’s actually worth.” – Steven Lacy (Host) [04:04]

2. Fervo’s IPO: Breakout or Just Another Cycle?

• Jigar Shah describes IPO as a “watershed moment” but stresses it’s not unambiguously positive:
  • Fervo’s approach: Disciplined, sequential (“do this project, learn, then repeat”) but possibly too slow—risks missing hyperscaler demand window.
    • “Their mental frame is...Let’s do this one. Let’s learn...The hyperscalers are willing to do the dance right now...Their appetite for risk and meeting the moment...seems difficult to parse.” – Jigar Shah [05:01-07:13]
  • Current power pricing for geothermal is higher than desired ($100+/MWh) and the sector needs scale (DOE says 5GW by 2030—$30B CAPEX) to achieve cost reduction and supply chain interest.
• Caroline Golan reflects on Fervo’s disciplined strategy, praised but not necessarily suited to the moment’s urgency.
  • “Tim is an incredibly disciplined man...I tend to wonder...when you have such a technology that’s so high upfront capital cost and has a lower opportunity for scale, it’s not just going to be Fervo...what types of technologies should we be investing in that have low capital investments on the front end and can scale quickly? That may not be this one.” [07:24-08:50]

Memorable Quotes:

• “The narrative matters...That's how a stock price goes up or down.” – Jigar Shah [11:34]
• “Fervo is an example of the boy scouts of the industry right now...I think there’s still investment out there that is interested in disciplined engineering. The problem is that doesn’t feed the 24-hour hype news cycle.” – Caroline Golan [15:38]

Key Point:

• Fervo’s IPO is “just a financing decision.” The critique isn't the financing route—it’s whether discipline over hype is really an advantage in today’s energy narrative-driven markets.

3. Investment Signals and The Hype Cycle

• Google's early Fervo investment: Not a typical external market signal.

  • Google (and other hyperscalers) created early market signals based on their needs to decarbonize specific grids—not for speculative returns or scaling everywhere.
  • “Google’s initial investments in 24/7 technologies are not held to the same scrutiny as private equity investments or as going public...To look at that as a signal that it’s good for everybody else is disingenuous.” – Caroline Golan [24:34]

• Hype cycles (and government narratives) are a critical driver—sector needs to “play the game” for broader adoption and to attract investment beyond the first project.

  • “The best technology doesn’t always win in clean tech. It’s the one that can raise capital, attract talent, execute on milestones...Culture really mattered for Google.” – Jigar Shah [26:41, 27:49]

4. Sage Geosystems & Technology/Business Model Diversity

• Sage Geosystems: Focused on brownfield development, more energy storage play than classic geothermal generation.

  • Uses surplus electricity to pressurize wells and withdraws that energy when needed; recently secured a $97M Series B and a partnership with Ormat.
  • “I think Sage’s model is fantastic...They did exactly everything right here...once you’ve proven your milestones and your technology works, find an extraordinary operator like Ormat.” – Jigar Shah [34:02-36:13]

• Contrasts with Fervo’s “go anywhere, build baseload power” approach; Sage seen as flexible capacity creator for grid-constrained regions—Meta’s PPA with Sage reflects this flexibility.

5. Manufactured Hype vs. Tech: Why Now for Geothermal?

• Jigar openly claims the current geothermal attention is in large part manufactured by government (DOE’s “Liftoff Report”).
  • “We manufactured out of whole cloth this hype cycle around geothermal at DOE...If we wrote a Liftoff Report about next-gen hydro, we’d be talking about hydro instead.” [39:56-42:26]
• But—genuine technology advances too: Hydraulic fracturing techniques, AI-led resource discovery (Zanskar), and updated project economics.
  • Both story/hype and technical progress are necessary—“If Google thinks this can happen, then we should give it a real look-see.” – Caroline Golan [43:53]

6. Policy, Risk, and the Role of Narrative

• Support from the administration is helpful but can create uncertainty (geothermal swings between “oil and gas” and “clean energy” designations).
  • “You don't have to deal with the political retribution...that is a huge variable in why people invest right now.” – Caroline Golan [47:23]
  • “The Trump administration says things...but it chills investment capital. There’s no logic to how decisions are made.” – Jigar Shah [48:00]

7. Will Geothermal Fizzle Again—or Has the Moment Arrived?

• Previous fades caused by lack of DC presence, loss of capital/talent to fracking, and weak policy support.
• Both hosts now see structurally better technology, but warn the speed/scale must accelerate (next 5 years critical).
  • “It’s not a matter of failure, it’s a matter of speed to market and competition with oil and gas expansion.” – Caroline Golan [51:17]

8. The Other Side: Fossil Decline and Infrastructure Fragility

• New Science paper: Most fossil fuel systems are not designed to shrink—there are thresholds (refineries, pipelines, etc.) where things break when demand declines.

  • “The way to shut them (fossil fuels) down in a managed decline fashion is to reduce the cost of oil, not increase it...destroy demand, not supply.” – Jigar Shah [54:03]

• Policy must focus on demand side—rapid deployment of “boring” efficiency tech (weatherization, heat pumps, appliances) already proven to erode fossil demand.

  • “We are so obsessed...with next generation technologies that we don’t have a similar obsession with the boring stuff...which could probably destroy 10% of US natural gas consumption...” – Jigar Shah [65:51]
  • “To avoid having to reinvest in a supply side system...You have to invest in sort of the demand side system...very few have adopted that framework.” – Caroline Golan [68:23]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “We can be objective around what it takes to win...But their mental frame is one of, let’s do this one, learn, then do the next. That approach might miss the moment.”
  — Jigar Shah [05:01]

• “I think Tim is an incredibly disciplined man...Is that enough? I think no.”
  — Caroline Golan [07:24-08:50]

• “The narrative matters. That’s how a stock price goes up or down.”
  — Jigar Shah [11:34]

• “Google’s initial investments in 24/7 technologies are not held to the same scrutiny. To look at that as a signal it’s good for everybody is disingenuous.”
  — Caroline Golan [24:34]

• “We manufactured out of whole cloth this hype cycle around geothermal at DOE.”
  — Jigar Shah [39:56]

• “If Google thinks this technology is good, that means something.”
  — Caroline Golan [43:53]

• “People need permission to do big things...The hype cycle is essential to getting the yeses.”
  — Jigar Shah [46:18]

• “You don’t want things to be more expensive if you want to shut the fossil industry down. The way to do it is to destroy demand, not supply.”
  — Jigar Shah [54:03]

• “You have to invest in sort of the demand side system; very few, if any, have adopted that.”
  — Caroline Golan [68:23]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Fervo’s IPO & the scale challenge: [05:01–10:11]
• Investment risk appetite vs. “playing the narrative game”: [10:18–16:34]
• Role of Google and investment signals: [21:04–27:49]
• Sage Geosystems & Meta partnership: [33:37–38:13]
• Geothermal’s manufactured hype & tech advances: [39:50–43:58]
• Fossil infrastructure fragility & “managed decline”: [54:03–62:16]
• Efficiency and the “boring but necessary” side of the transition: [65:51–69:31]

Summary Takeaways

• Geothermal’s “moment” is real, but fraught: Fervo’s upcoming IPO is a pivotal but risky bet on whether geothermal can scale fast enough—and whether disciplined strategy or narrative hype is the better path to attracting capital.
• Sector diversity matters: Other models (Sage Geosystems for long-duration storage, etc.) offer alternative paths, reflecting the variety of business models under the geothermal banner.
• Hype, signals, and policy matter as much as tech: The “manufactured hype” of government reports and investor signals (like Google’s investment) are crucial for unlocking capital and market adoption.
• Efficiency and demand-side policies must not be ignored: Transitioning away from fossil fuels smoothly requires focus on the boring, high-impact efficiency technologies at scale, not just moonshots.
• Political climate is a wild card: Bipartisan support—while rare—could prove fleeting; the sector’s continued progress will depend on outlasting policy swings and economic cycles.

The episode provides a lively, insider view—a frank mix of optimism, realism, and strategic debate—on whether geothermal’s breakout is a blip or a breakthrough for the energy transition.