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Kim Zhu
Latitude Media covering the new frontiers of the energy transition.
Stephen Lacy
Oh, God. Jigger, the last time we recorded, you were in Colorado, ready to go out into the wilderness. As soon as we stopped taping, what happened?
Jigar Shah
Yeah, I was staying with my cousin and he really tried to break me. I think we went on like four hikes. One of them was down a canyon, like over a bridge. Bringing back up. It's like, what do you think about the sights? I was like, I need to focus on me right now. I need to focus on only giving 85. You know, like, I've got an old body.
Stephen Lacy
Catherine, you spend a lot of time in the mountains in Virginia and New York. You have any tips for Jigger on how to build those quads?
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, I live at the top of a mountain. So you. You go down and then you go back up. Or if you want to go side to side, you can go side to side, but at some point, you always have to go back up. Yeah. And then on vacation, when we go on vacation, we go to the Adirondacks, which is also mountains. So it's, it's, it's all I know anymore. When I go to dc, it really does feel like a swamp and I need to buddy breathe.
Stephen Lacy
Well, we can all insert our mountain climbing and survival metaph for investors here.
Jigar Shah
Yeah, exactly. Exactly.
Stephen Lacy
From Latitude Media, this is Open Circuit this week, a recalibration for climate tech investing. If last year was the start of a new normal for venture investors backing clean technologies, this year has been anything but. And that comes down to one thing that investors do not like, but inevitably need to manage.
Unnamed Speaker
Uncertainty.
Stephen Lacy
And boy, do we have a lot of uncertainty swirling around stemming from tariffs, possible IRA repeal, and macroeconomic clouds. We're going to examine how investors are adapting, where the gaps remain and what.
Unnamed Speaker
It means for companies ready to scale. OpenCircuit is supported by Sungrow. Sungrow is a global supplier of PV inverters and battery storage systems. Sungrow is ranked most bankable in both categories by Bloomberg Nef. There are many reasons for that, but one big one, a strong fire safety record. Last year, Sungrow set four of its five megawatt hour PowerTitan 2 battery systems on fire, and it livestreamed it to show the flames didn't spread. Plus, the power Titan II earned its fire safety certification from the New York City Fire Department. That is an incredibly difficult feat. Learn more@sungrowpower.com or click the link in the show notes. Open Circuit is brought to you by Natural power. For nearly two decades, Natural Power has provided engineering and consulting services for renewables projects across the US Natural Power supports clients in wind, solar and battery storage with a focus on independent engineering, technical due diligence, energy estimation and developer support. With more than 245 gigawatts of project experience in North America and acceptance from major financiers, Natural Power is responsive, able to meet tight timelines, and pragmatic. Natural Power works with you to understand, quantify and mitigate risks. Learn more@naturalpower.com or click the link in the show Notes.
Stephen Lacy
Welcome to the show. I'm Stephen Lacy. I'm the Executive Editor at Latitude Media, joined as always by my co host. Katherine Hamilton is the co founder and chair of 38 North Solutions. Howdy hey. Jigar Shah is the co Managing Partner at Multiplier and former director of DOE's Loan Programs Office. Hey Jigar.
Jigar Shah
Hey.
Stephen Lacy
And we're joined by Kim Zhu. Kim is the CEO and co Founder of Sightline Climate, a firm that tracks climate tech investment trends through data and sentiment analysis. Welcome Kim.
Kim Zhu
Good to be here.
Stephen Lacy
You are in London Climate Week right now. How are things shaping up over there?
Kim Zhu
It's interesting. So most people don't know this cause I obviously don't sound British, but I moved out to London about three years ago from the US and the last three years, London Climate Week, I was surprised at how little things were happening or maybe I wasn't getting invited to stuff, so maybe that's on me. But this year it feels completely different. We're seeing investors from the us, Middle East, Asia, Canada, all over the world coming to Climate Week and trying to see what's going on in Europe for the first time.
Stephen Lacy
Is that partly due to the uncertainty in the US market?
Kim Zhu
Yeah, I think there's a at least talking to people, there's a few reasons behind it. Definitely the big driver is pullback in the us. Is there opportunity in Europe? That's kind of the big question everyone's behind the scenes asking how are you thinking about Europe and rest of the world in terms of capital allocation? And then I think from a just Climate Week standpoint as well. New York Climate Week has become so overrun and then cop this year in Brazil as well seems like it'll be harder to get to. So I think people are seeing London Climate Week as an opportunity to convene.
Stephen Lacy
So we brought Kim here this week to unpack how investors and startups are bracing themselves at this moment. Sightline's editorial arm CTVC just released a of venture, private equity and growth investors and it shows a lot of fear about policy whiplash and some planning for worst case scenarios. It also shows a deepening gap for companies looking to scale that require too much capital for venture investors, but aren't big enough for infrastructure investors. And we're going to get into what that missing middle looks like. First, I want to pull out this word cloud from your survey, Kim. So I'm looking at the words now and I see in large print words like reckoning and survival.
Unnamed Speaker
And in tiny print I see optimistic and raising.
Stephen Lacy
It's a mixed bag. I do see resilience and opportunity in.
Unnamed Speaker
Big letters as well.
Stephen Lacy
So what does this word cloud tell you about how investors are thinking about this moment?
Kim Zhu
Yeah, the word clouds are always fun. I think it's a bit elementary, but more than anything, it kind of represents how people are feeling and what they're thinking about. Honestly, the word cloud, the word that stands out to me the most is resilience. Resilience from a few angles. Right. I think there's the sentiment of, we've been through this before, cleantech, 1.0, previous administrations, this isn't a new thing, it's who stays the course. Right. So there's resilience from that angle of it's the experienced investors, the experienced developers, the experienced founders who've been through this before, they'll stay the course and maybe more of the tourists will retrench. And then I think there's also resilience from a climate standpoint that's kind of interesting now and we can talk a bit more about this later, but I think we're starting to see more interest from a climate solution standpoint at a more adaptation and resilience angle. So given the current administration as well, I think that resilience angle and how we think about hardening, how we think about infrastructure also starts to be a pretty interesting opportunity for the climate tech space. So I think that resilience kind of stands out to me.
Stephen Lacy
Catherine, any words jump out to you and would you add any words?
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, so I would add speed and flexibility and speed from the point of the US People right now, because of the policy uncertainty, are rushing to safe harbor projects, to acquire projects, to move as quickly as they can before anything changes. And then the flexibility piece speaks to what Kim was talking about, about those who are flexible enough to look elsewhere, who can go to the EU or go to the UK to look for investment. So I would add those two words.
Stephen Lacy
Jigger. Any words you would add?
Jigar Shah
Opportunity, baby.
Stephen Lacy
Yeah. So I see opportunity in big, it's in bold here.
Unnamed Speaker
Why?
Jigar Shah
Well, Look, I mean, I think that, you know, like, at least from where I sit, I've never seen more opportunity. Right. I think when you think about just how much people have retrenched, you know, whether it's top tier companies that folks have never been able to get investment into, you can now put money into those companies and get a piece of what they're doing or existing assets, you can buy them for such low prices now that you can get much higher returns than you were able to get just two years ago. And so there's a lot of opportunity. I thought the survival and the lean piece were part of it though too. Right. I think for companies like, you know, they, they have to make sure that they survive to the next, you know, sort of tail tailwinds sort of section. And that means, you know, cutting costs and figuring out how to get to the other side. And. But the other piece of this is really just understanding, you know, who's going to buy you. Right. Like, because that's the problem. Like, I think there's a lot of people who think that all investors are like billionaires who basically, you know, have very long term, you know, money. And the reality is exactly the opposite. Right. Most of These investors have five year money, seven year money, and if they raised in 2019 or 2020, they need to like, you know, return cash back to investors by 2026. Right. And so they're like, wait, who are we going to sell some of these companies to? And so I think survival is a big thing there too.
Kim Zhu
Yeah, I mean, I think one of the, one of the things we've been looking at as well in terms of exits is acquisitions. And a bit of a sneak Preview to our H1 report we're about to publish. But we actually saw acquisitions double this half year, which is surprising, right, because you think there aren't really any exits happening. But majority of Those acquisitions about 50% or so had undisclosed valuations. There were a lot of these kind of bargain hunting acquisition plays where corporates and strategics are buying up companies because some of them might be running out of cash, some of them might be looking for a long term strategic home, but they can buy them up finally at much more opportunistic costs. So that's definitely, I think, an opportunity. I think investors who have been spending a long time in this space are also finding better bets. They can come in at lower valuations. I think 2020 to 2022. I was actually investor at that time at Energy Impact Partners and I can tell you firsthand some of These valuations we were seeing were insane, were wild, made no sense on paper. Most of these companies had no revenue. And so what are you even really valuing them off of? Right. And I think that period of just hype and how to think about valuation, it just wasn't sustainable. So now that's kind of coming back to earth. But there's definitely some pain and shakeout with that as well.
Stephen Lacy
Katherine, you work with a number of funds. Just another setup question here. Does this feel like it resonates with their experience and what you're hearing from them?
Katherine Hamilton
Yes, absolutely. We work with everything from VCs and private equity companies that are looking for us to help them navigate the policy landscape. But I'm also an advisor to a growth equity fund, mkb, out of Montreal, and I'm seeing and hearing the same thing. And also from, and I'm sure Jigger is finding this too. Also the boards that I sit on for startups, a lot of them are in the same space of like, all right, now, what's next? What do we do? And we kind of, kind of dig into, all right, where do we go from here? But certainly on the policy front, that's what we focus on with a lot of these funds.
Stephen Lacy
Well, that brings us into the obvious wildcard here, which is policy. So policy uncertainty was a top concern in this survey, Kim, far outweighing any other concerns. What are the areas of policy uncertainty that are causing them the most concern or fear?
Kim Zhu
I think with policy uncertainty, it's always one of those things where it's all of it, everything and all of the above is causing fear. But I think surprisingly, or maybe unsurprisingly, 41% of respondents said tariffs were the most impactful policy lever above things like tax credits, funding, ira. So tariffs, out of all the different policy pieces that are uncertain right now, was causing the most fear. And I think it's not just in climate. Right. I have friends who work in commodity supply chains and food and ag, and they're also dealing with tariffs firsthand. We track from a product standpoint, from a product type standpoint, we track all these different climate tech companies. And 54% have some sort of physical product hardware element. And of course, tariffs are going to hit those the hardest, especially because all these supply chains that they're reliant on are really, really complex. The second and third are, of course, inflation reduction act and reconciliation. That's obviously a big one. But it's all really a domino effect, I think, with a lot of this funding and tax credits that Seem to already have been allocated, potentially getting pulled back. Private capital has been tied to that. Right. So we've talked about public private partnership. If the public goes away, the private also feels uncertain about that. So there's a lot of challenging pieces across all of this. It's really kind of a domino.
Stephen Lacy
Absolutely. And we're going to see another round of tariffs possibly in early July, July 9, I think. And then there's this self imposed deadline that Congress has to pass the big beautiful bill, this reconciliation bill that may roll back IRA credits. Catherine, we're moment now where there's a lot of verbal trading back and forth. The Senate is working on its version of the bill. Can you just update us on what the status is with that reconciliation bill and where the IRA potentially stands?
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, in the words of the great Yogi Berra, it ain't over till it's over. So right now the Senate had released their language on Inflation Reduction act credits, which was better than what the House had released. And it gave more of a Runway for all of the renewables. It gave like a special carve out for more baseload type renewables. It had confusing but less onerous fiac, which is foreign and deduce of concern language. But right now there is a really kind of a death match going on. And some of it has nothing to do whether it's clean energy or not, but has to do much more with political positioning. So we're gonna, you know, nobody is celebrating now. Nobody is saying like this is okay. Everybody is really just continuing to try to run through the tape and make sure that Congress understands the impact because of course the impact is gonna be massive, especially on Republican districts. The US Clean Energy Project cancellations like hit GOP districts absolutely the hardest of anyone. And that's in addition to just the other stuff in the bill that we've talked about, all the healthcare impacts, rural hospital impacts. So there are a lot of other things that are in there that are at issue, but a huge piece of it is where are these tax credits going to land? And I would say that. But part of this is just about getting them to land somewhere. Right. Like it is more about uncertainty than it is about where this actually ends up. Although of course where it ends up is going to have a material, make a material difference. But part of this is just about like how do you make sure that you're able to ride through policy changes? You can't really policy proof yourself. You can't really do that. You can make yourself less policy dependent, but you can't policy is everywhere. It's not just in tax credits. It's in every regulation that we have everywhere in the world. There are regulatory constructs, there are market constructs. All of those feed into what a given market's going to be for any investment and any technology. And I think you can't say I'm going to be policy proof myself, because policy is just part of the way business works. But you can try to make sure that you're able to be, as I said, flexible at the beginning as we move forward, no matter what the policy is.
Stephen Lacy
And just to timestamp that we are talking midday Wednesday, this will come out Friday morning. So who knows what will change between now and then over the next day and a half or so. I'm glad, Catherine, you mentioned this term policy proof. It's a, it's a loaded term. But in the Sightline survey, investors say that they're focusing more on policy proof business models. Shaker, what does that mean to you?
Jigar Shah
I mean, I have no idea. Like, we're in a place right now with the person who's the most influential on this reconciliation bill right now is Alex Epstein. And you're like, on the energy gang. And you're like, who the hell are you? Like, why are you here? You're a meme coin. And like, so you're in this weird spot, right, where, like, he has never worked in the energy sector. There's not a single investor who's like, what does Alex Epstein think? But, like, lord almighty, like, you know, like, he's the one that Susie Wiles brought to, like, a Republican senator breakfast and whatnot. So, like, you're in this weird spot, right, where we are at the precipice of the most exciting economic growth opportunity this country has ever seen with AI data center load growth and manufacturing load growth and all this other stuff. You've got everyone from the natural gas industry to the coal industry to and nuclear to solar, wind and battery storage going. Here is what we have lined up ready to start construction on next week. Would you like for us to start construction? And that was starting to have an impact on Republican senators who are like, yeah, we actually want to make sure that we don't have rolling blackouts in our states. And now folks are like, maybe we do want rolling blackouts in our states because we just talked to this guy who has a lot of Twitter followers, and he seems like an expert. And so, like, what's weird to me is what kind of people actually have power in this space and which people are being listened to. And as an investor, you're sort of like, huh, what's the through line here? Should I have been able to predict this? I don't know, but I think it's kind of a funky time.
Kim Zhu
There's no such thing as policy proof because in clean energy we talk a lot about tariffs and tax credits and funding, but there's policy in everything, right? There's policy in AI, there's policy in data. And so there's no such thing really as policy proof. I think it's like, how can you ensure your business isn't reliant on policy? So maybe it's like rather than policy proof, it's policy independent, right? Yeah, exactly, exactly. So I think it's, and this is sometimes the trap with climate tech companies is a lot of these solutions are reliant on policy. A lot of these solutions are relatively nascent. And so how do you take something that's pretty early stage and have it compete with the Goliath and have the same costs from the get go? It's just not possible. But I think now investors are looking more at solutions where decarbonization and policy aren't the primary business drivers for the business that there's cost savings or efficiency in of itself as opposed to saying, oh, is the tax credit going to make this project cross the line? So things like, you know, energy efficiency, retrofits, waste heat recovery, you know, or even an angle around security, that's a big one now everyone's talking about. So maybe it's not just cost, but maybe it's more safe, it's more, you know, supply chain secure. So it's kind of like, what are the other angles? What are the other drivers for this business beyond solely relying on a tax credit or policy coming through.
Jigar Shah
That's absolutely right, Kim. One of the things that we read earlier this year was that new jewel order, which a lot of investors have read. And it's really saying like this is frankly what China and India have been doing for a long time, which is we don't want to import fossil fuels. We want to have more homegrown solutions. And whether that's coal or solar, wind and battery storage, you know, we want to take, we want to reduce the imports of fossil fuels into our country. And so I think you're seeing a lot of investors actually look at that. I mean, clearly Europe is all over that right now just given their extraordinary costs for importing liquefied natural gas and some of these other imported fuels. And so it is a grand reshuffling that's occurring. And I don't know that everything has actually landed quite yet. And so I don't think everyone has agreed upon the rules of the game, but maybe they'll figure that out at London Climate Week.
Kim Zhu
Well, it's interesting you say that because actually tomorrow Thursday we're hosting an event with one of the authors of the New Jewel Order, because yesterday they just came out with, I guess their sequel called A New Marshall Plan, focused specifically on Europe and kind of applying that neutral order to Europe. So this may be a little advertisement to check that out, but it's an interesting moment where we're calling the event Europe's energy Moment. I think it's an interesting moment for Europe where the last few decades Europe has really put environment first. Right. The whole premise of the New Jewel order is it's 1 security, 2 economic efficiency, 3 environment. And Europe over the last few decades has put environment first, which has resulted in winds, emissions have declined, renewables have increased, but also over the last few years, fossil fuel imports went from 38% to 54%. And when the Russia, Ukraine crisis hit, that was kind of the Achilles heel in that strategy. And so now I think Europe's kind of taking a step back to look at it more in that security, economic efficiency, environment order.
Stephen Lacy
We've talked about this on the show a couple of times and I teed you up with London Climate Week because I was really interested to understand what you're hearing about investors and US companies looking to European markets or other markets. Do you feel like there's a real push for companies and investors to make a strategic pivot to some of these other markets?
Kim Zhu
Yeah, it's interesting, right? Because moving to the UK three years ago, everyone here was almost like complaining that the UK and Europe behind looking to the US as this beacon. There's a lot of sentiment of we're playing catch up. It was funny. I was sitting in a roundtable this morning and someone said it's frustrating that in the UK we have all this innovation happening and then the US swoops in and takes it. And I think that's. I just found that really hilarious because in the US everyone's saying there's so much innovation happening, it's so frustrating that China or Asia sweeps in and takes it. So it's all, I guess, relative. But I think the sentiment here has been that Europe has not been able to compete. There is a lot of early stage capital, a lot of seeds, seed stage investors, that ecosystem has matured. But the mature, the Growth capital, even Series A, Series B capital to a certain extent, doesn't quite exist in Europe. And so a lot of European companies, historically, once they reach a certain size, they've had to go to the US to look for capital. And honestly, the missing middle in Europe is earlier. It's at the Series A stage. Companies struggle to raise Series A, not even to mention Series B. But I think for the first time ever, we're seeing a lot more US investors not waiting for companies to come to them, but actually coming to Europe to try and find European companies that they can take to scale. And I think part of that as well, if I'm honest, is also just a fundraising story as well. So a lot of investors are coming to Europe not just to find companies, but to find LPs, because a lot of that LP capital in the US may be less interested around climate and clean energy and some of these topics now, but European LPs are for the most part still really interested. But a lot of that are sovereign wealth funds, pension funds that require a specific allocation of that capital to go towards European companies. So there's kind of these two overlay trends. One is more opportunity for European scale ups, especially ones that have been able to raise a lot of that early stage capital that exists here. And then two being LP dollars, there's a lot more, I think investors feel like there's a lot more European LP dollars here relative to the us and.
Katherine Hamilton
We'Re seeing with the folks we work with that there are fewer EU companies wanting to come to the US like now the US is much less attractive.
Jigar Shah
Well, I mean, you know, I think when you look at the veracity by which the UK government has announced their national Wealth Fund plans, the GB energy plans, I mean, I have many companies in the United States calling me, saying, hey, should I be going to the UK to figure out how to scale up my technology there? Because they have all these public resources. I think you see the same with the eu, although it's a lot more confusing because it's really at the France and Germany level, not really at the EU level. Australia just announced $30 billion of Australian, you know, loan monies to attract companies there. Right? Critical minerals, et cetera. I don't know what Carney's doing in Canada yet. They have, they haven't settled. But like, I mean, I do think there is a, like, I think every ambassador and every, like, consulate in the US now is like chasing US companies going, hey, we look great over, like in our countries. And so it's been a fascinating turn of events for sure. Kim.
Kim Zhu
Definitely. I think the other it's funny being here as well. I think everyone always it's always like the grass is greener on the other side. So sitting in the uk, there's a lot of companies that are looking to come here, but companies that are already here, they're complaining about one. There's just a ton of red tape. I almost think of it as like Europe's been tripping over their own sticks. So a lot of complexity, really hard to navigate, especially as a startup scale up. And then the second the thing that I think the US does still have an advantage on is electricity prices because UK and Europe electricity prices are a lot higher. You have to pay two to three times more than the average U.S. household. And that's another big challenge that I think companies are trying to figure out how to navigate.
Unnamed Speaker
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Stephen Lacy
So I realized Kim, I didn't ask you about like deal Flow and just like the general atmosphere right now. So your 2024 assessment showed that we were settling into what you call a new normal for investment. But the 2025 investor survey calls out higher anxiety, this trickier, more tactical moment. So how different is deal flow and sentiment in the first half of this year compared with last year?
Kim Zhu
Yeah, well, we're getting a sneak peek preview here because we're actually about to publish something at the very start of July on the first half of the year. But to just, to just give you the sneak peek, we've seen investment decline about 19% relative to the prior half year. And I think in a way we've been called. Originally when we published our investment Trends report for 2023, the headline was wait and see. Right. It was unclear whether investment was going to return back to sort of pre2023 levels. And since then. And I think it's less end of wait and see, it's more end of see, wait and see. I think it's just wait at this point. But honestly, it's kind of a sign of the times, right? There was a lot of early stage venture capital flowing in between 2019-2023. A lot of companies that were buoyed by zero interest rates and are now getting to that, that missing middle stage. If it's a software company, they're trying to get to scale, trying to get past 5 million ARR. If they're a hardware or projects oriented company, they're trying to build that first of a kind project. And so we have this massive cohort, massive wave of companies that are all kind of around that same missing middle stage, trying to figure out what the next phase is. Right? How do we get that first of a kind project done? How do we exit the business? Potentially, because we've hit a ceiling with the business. And so it's not necessarily just a sign of political uncertainty or macro uncertainty. I think it's also just a sign of the maturity of the overall market that a lot of these companies now are reaching that inflection point. And some may shake out. That's just the truth. Some may shake out, others may consolidate, and others may make it all the way to the finish line. And so I think one of the big things we're seeing is a flight to quality. There's still a lot of these megadeals getting done, especially ones that kind of tie into that energy security, economic efficiency theme we've talked about like lots of deals in nuclear and geothermal and critical minerals. Hundreds of millions megadeals but then there's also a lot of bankruptcies that we've seen over the last half year as well, including some pretty notable ones like climate tech darlings, if you will, the North Volts and life cycles of the world.
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, I thought it was interesting, Kim, in your survey, that the macroeconomic environment was the biggest kind of slowdown rationale. But then the second was that there's more prioritizing support for existing portfolio companies that kind of leads to like, let's make sure that what we've invested in is successful. And when I talked to Jesse Teachman, who is a partner at mkb, he said, you know, in his experience, and they're a growth equity firm, the deals are taking longer, people are relying on existing investors and the deals have a lot more structure in them to make sure that there are more protections built in for investors. And so there may be some capital based on revenue, but a lot of this is based on ebitda and like, what are, what's the core profitability, the operational efficiency and really digging into, making sure that port cos over time are being able to know, really have strong returns rather than, rather than going out and kind of all seed, letting all seeds, all flowers bloom, like really doubling down on what they already are doing.
Jigar Shah
Yeah, I've gotten a lot of folks who've called me around first of a kind projects and I'm just like, you missed your window. Like, I don't know what you think is happening here, but like, you know, the ability for, as Kim suggested, the public to show up to like, actually help you with something where you're not quite clear that you were actually going to get rid of your technology premium and sell clean cement or clean steel or whatever it is, like at the level that would be competitive with the marketplace. I mean, there's just such little appetite for that stuff today compared to the last four years. Right. And so if you miss the window, you miss the window.
Stephen Lacy
Let's talk a little bit more about why that funding gap exists. So I know some investors don't always like the first of a kind label, the Foak label, since, you know, a lot of what startups are building is new, but it largely refers to infrastructure investments. And, you know, graduation rates from early stage to later rounds are improving, but more climate tech companies are reaching the point where they're ready to build their first commercial facilities. And just as they hit that critical stage, the funding to support them is scarce. And investors in the survey, I believe, said that they expect it to decline. So the sightline research identifies what they call the missing middle within the middle. This 45 to $100 million range, that's too big for venture capital, but too small for infrastructure investors. Kim, set us up. Give us some more detail on what we're talking about when we talk about foak. We're seeing this potentially steep decline in first of a kind projects. Like, how do we define them? What kind of capital do they typically need?
Kim Zhu
Yeah, that's a good question. And I think I have this running joke where there's been so many names for this gap. There's been skill gaps, Valley of death, missing middle, first of a kind. If we spend as much time working on it as we have been trying to define it and name it, maybe we would have done a bit more by now. But I do think there's some nuance to it as well. So I think missing middle to me is kind of an umbrella term. Right. Like missing middle also encompasses software companies that are just trying to get across this missing middle. First of a kind is a bit more specific to companies that are trying to build physical assets, trying to build projects, manufacturing facilities. And I think the nature of it is oftentimes because these are very relatively new solutions or new execution of existing solutions, oftentimes there is that lab scale deployment. Does this thing actually work in the lab? Can I prove it at lab scale? And then after that you have your pilot scale deployment, actually doing this in the real world and testing it still at a pretty small scale. And then after that it gets a bit fuzzy. Right. Some call it demonstration scale, some call it first of a kind. That's I think that folk category we talk a lot about. It's really your first commercial facility. Is it a demonstration? Is it first commercial? You know, oftentimes companies do try to get some sort of offtake secured for that project. That's how we define first of a kind, your first commercial facility. And the quote about there's a missing middle within the missing middle, I think applies directly to that commercialization trajectory that at the lab stage, or even at that pilot stage, if you need, call it like 5 to 20 million to get that initial test done, it's doable. You can raise venture capital for that. Venture capital is meant to de risk technology or even raise grant capital for that. Then I think the deployment phase, that FOAK phase, where you're trying to build your first commercial project or demonstration project, that gets you more to the 45 to 100 million phase. And that's kind of the big gap that we See, because once you really get to scale and you've built out multiple projects like we've seen in solar and storage and wind, and there's tons of infrastructure capital, there's tons of commercial debt available for those hundreds of millions of dollars kind of sizes. But that 45 to 100 million, you're still dealing with venture level risk, but infrastructure style returns. And so it's low risk or sorry, high risk, low returns. And most private investors, most, you know, financials aren't really willing to accept that type of risk reward ratio. So that's why that gap exists. It's really in that missing middle of the missing middle.
Katherine Hamilton
Well, that's where doe, the Department of Energy at the US was so crucial. That's where it landed with all of the demonstration funding and the loan programs, Office and Jigger can dive in of course on this, but this, with those programs being closed or shut down, some of those contracts being walked away from, that's what you're going to get. That is again, that sort of missing metal piece that's going to go away.
Stephen Lacy
Yeah. So Jigger, you have this new firm multiplier that you co founded with Jonathan Silver, also a former DOE Loan programs director. Is this the area that you guys are focusing on? Like, tell me about the gap that you guys are specifically trying to fill.
Jigar Shah
Yeah, no, we're definitely not focused on that gap because I think, I mean the thing that I think people forget is this is not, this is not a logics problem. Right. This is really a feelings problem. Like when you invest 45 to $100 million into something, you want to know that somebody, as soon as you hit your milestones is going to buy out your position. Right. Because your goal here is not to own this for the next 10 years. Your goal is to bridge people to this next set of milestones and then get a strategic investor or somebody else to come in and take you out out. Right. And right now what people are saying is they have no visibility on anyone taking them out anytime soon. Right. And so this is, yes, as Catherine suggested, the DOE is nowhere to be found right now. But part of this is also just like, am I going to get stuck with this position If I put 45 to $100 million in this, am I going to get stuck with this investment for 5, 7, 9 years until someone else actually wants to, you know, invest alongside me or take me out or whatever it is? Right. So I think the stuff that Jonathan and I are doing is far more pedestrian. I think what you're finding in this marketplace right now is that people just never bothered to check to see what their exit was. They were just like, well, I'm hitting my metrics and I'm gaining market share and I have more customers and it's great. And you know, a lot of what Jonathan and I are asking companies, I was like, well, who's going to buy you? And they're like, oh, someone will buy me. I'm like, who exactly is going to buy you? And they're like, oh, I haven't actually thought about it. Well, you should think about it because you're running out of cash, you're trying to raise more money, you should know exactly who's going to buy you. Because what you're finding today, as Kim suggested, is there's a lot of people who are exiting via acquisition right now. And some of those people who are there to buy you can't pay a lot. They can only Pay, let's say, $100 million, right? Well, if you just raised another $40 million round of capital, well, then you now have to sell for $200 million. You've now priced yourself out of your best acquirer. Right. And that's not great. Right. And so these are basic logic issues that frankly our industry hasn't focused on since 2020 and so, or 2019. And so a lot of folks are like, well, as long as I'm executing and I'm doing a lot of good in the world and people are buying my products, like the exit will take care of itself. And I'm like, no, it won't need to spend a lot more time thinking about it.
Kim Zhu
Well, I think one of the primary challenges in the climate tech and clean energy tech ecosystem has always been we've often thought about it from an equity standpoint because it's equity. At the end of the day, you're investing in exchange for ownership of a company at some point, some proposed valuation that you as the founder and you as the investor agree on. But as we all know, a lot of these technologies are really capital intensive, are asset intensive. You have to build physical assets that just literally cost a lot of money. And so historically there's been a lot of equity capital that's been spent on physical assets rather than just the operating expenses, the people that software companies can focus on. And it's just equity capital is not tailor made to take hard tech, to take physical assets all the way to scale because it's really expensive. You have to raise a lot of capital. Therefore your valuation has to be really high. So you don't get over diluted and you don't lose interest and walk away from the business. And so the math is just, just the math just doesn't math I guess in some of these situations. And so now I think the investor ecosystem is opening up to okay, if it's not equity, what is it? Because project finance isn't going to come into some of these technologies. And so now there's a lot more open conversation around how do we think about non diluted capital for bridging this gap. And I think Fervo is a good example of this. This a week or two ago they announced 200 million for their project Cape Station and none of that was at least, I think none of that was dilutive. At the top co it was a $60 million loan from Mercuria, a $46 million bridge debt financing from Excalibur and then 100 million in project preferred equity from Breakthrough Catalyst. So I think starting to see more of that understanding around what's the right capital stack to build, especially at the project CO level rather than just pouring more equity capital onto the top co. Because to Jugger's point, there aren't that many cases you can point to to companies raising hundreds of millions of dollars and exiting as a unicorn or exiting as an IPO in the climate clean energy space.
Jigar Shah
The one structure you are seeing a lot more of is the classic recapitalization. So there's a lot of people instead of raising a B round, you've got people like NGP or Equity or Warburg Pincus or some of these other folks who are actually just taking everybody out and saying we're going to like, you know like basically buy the whole company and we're going to put $150 million of fresh capital in. We'll get another $150 million from a pension fund that'll co invest with us. And now for five years your job is to figure out how to like de risk your business, get it to profitability, do all the things and then like and then eventually if you succeed, the pension fund who put in the $150 million worth of fresh capital as co invest will actually just take you over. Right? So that's think like Pattern Energy is owned by CPPIB or some of those folks, right? And so you're starting to see a lot more of that which seed stage and a stage investors hate because they're like oh I'm only making a 2x return on my original valuation, but I think that they're not really capable of taking these companies past the missing middle. And the people who want to put this amount of money in are saying we don't want to bother with seed stage and a stage investors who are not really adding value anymore. And so we need everyone to come together to recapitalize the whole business and reset the vesting for the management team too. Saying like whatever you thought you owned of your business, you don't own anymore. And we're going to create an entirely new vesting schedule for you to own stock in your business. And so I think that those are the kinds of models that switch you from the 10x return expectations from seed stage and a stage to sort of the 16 to 18% interest rate sort of return expectation from these infrastructure plus plus plus type investors.
Stephen Lacy
So this is a cross sectoral gap. Are there any sectors where it's hitting hardest? Kim?
Kim Zhu
Yeah, I think this was Jigger's earlier point. The sectors where they have historically been reliant on a green premium and customers willing to pay a green premium have definitely been challenged. I think notably there it would be top of mind. It's things like industrial decarbonization and carbon removal. I think carbon removal in particular, it's almost like a 100% green premium because you don't have to buy it. Right. And it's always been a market that's voluntary reliant on kind of one major buyer, which is Microsoft. And so you have a massive amount of startups and companies who are all vying after one buyer. It's not really a recipe for success. And so I think, I think those types of sectors which have historically been looking for corporates or looking for customers who are willing to pay that 50% plus green premium, that's definitely a challenging area unless there's some sort of regulation in place. So one example of this Stegra, which used to be called H2 Green Steel over in Sweden, they have openly said our green premium is 25 to 50% on our green steel. And they have been able to make a case that customers are willing to pay for it because there's the EU ets and when that does come into effect it will be around 20 to 50% of a premium. And so for the customers buying their steel Stegos steel, it's less about, oh, I'm paying a premium, it's almost more of a hedging play in a way that you can lock in these prices now as opposed to having to pay them out later on. So there's definitely exceptions to that. But I think broadly where Those sticks and regulations don't exist. That that voluntary market willing to pay a green premium right now is definitely drying up.
Jigar Shah
The flip side of that is, is less about the technology premium stuff and more about the fact that we have so many companies that save so much money for customers. Right. And so I think the other side of that is that the investors are doubling down on the companies who actually already saved customers money and are really just scaling. And those opportunities are so plentiful that you know, folks are I think just crowding more money into those sectors.
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, I'm seeing like two different things here. One is like the things that are good to go. Project finance, you know, clean capital. Just purchased six projects, 27 megawatts of solar and 25 megawatt hours of battery. They know they have off takers, they know where they're going to go. That's the kind of thing that's easy to do but, but then I think we're seeing a lot of deep tech is really hard that requires discovery. It requires a lot more early stage investment. That one's tough. I looked at the World Economic Forum, just released their top 10 emerging technologies for 2025. I think I was involved in the one from 2020 and I don't mine was I had offered electric aviation, sustainable aviation. So see where that is right now. But the ones that they've mentioned, of those 10, five of them are either energy or energy adjacent. And it's interesting cause they're not necessarily necessarily in the space of deep tech. So one is collaborative sensing, like making sure that, you know, whether it's vehicles in cities and energy, that all this sensing technology kind of the software side and I think the software side, I mean you can see that's going like gangbusters. Energized capital raised 430 million. Right. So that still seems pretty strong. Green nitrogen fertilizer is another big one. Structural battery components. So like all those supply chain issues that we've been talking about. Osmotic power systems which are, you know, try to try to take advantage of the difference in salt concentration of different waters, whether it's seawater and river water. So that's, that was one of the emerging techs and then also advanced nuclear and that's definitely what we're seeing in the US So I found it interesting that a lot of these new emerging technologies are not necessarily dependent on discovery and more dependent on making things work that have already started being invested in.
Kim Zhu
That's super interesting. Well, well, one point I haven't heard of two out of five of those. So I gotta brush up on my emerging technologies. Osmotic power sensing, osmotic power. Gotta look that one. Systems, gotta look that one up. Very interesting. But just to build on that point, I think one of the bright spots we saw in our H1 report was grid tech, Grid enhancing technologies. It had its best quarter ever. And I was at EIP three years ago and grid tech was not cool. No one was talking about grid tech. But yeah, it had its best quarter ever in 2025, despite all the broader decline. And even talking to utilities that we work with, all of a sudden you're seeing head of grid modernization. Right? That's a role now. And so, yeah, I think that's an interesting case study of rather than net new solutions, how can we improve existing solutions like transformers and monitoring hardware and sensors that can extend or expand capacity without having to invest a lot more dollars, get more bang for your buck in a way.
Stephen Lacy
Yeah, and I presume that that is influenced heavily by the demand growth picture and particularly the expansion of AI. And more than half of investors in the survey said that they're now factoring AI into their climate investment decisions. So talk about the AI picture, how that's influencing investment strategies, investment choices. And I presume that grid tech is reflective of that.
Kim Zhu
Yeah, definitely. I mean we see AI as both a challenge and opportunity.
Katherine Hamilton
Right.
Kim Zhu
There's kind of two sides to the coin. I think on the, on the challenge side, everyone's been talking about the load growth part of the story. It's probably like the number one, number one most said word this year in the climate tech ecosystem.
Stephen Lacy
AI boom is the most, yeah, different flavors of it.
Kim Zhu
AI boom, load growth, clean firm power. So yeah, all these things we're seeing, nuclear, geothermal, energy storage, grid tech, all kind of different flavors of. We need all of the above right now. And I think it's an exciting time in this space because yes, there's all this funding gap and missing middle, but at the same time there's real demand emerging in energy. And I think from a venture standpoint, historically transportation has trumped energy and overall investment. In the last year, energy is clearly trumping transportation because all of a sudden you're seeing a need for innovation again in energy. Not that there was never a need for innovation in energy, but a lot of times we thought it was solved. Right? We have renewables, we have lithium ion batteries, we have all of these solutions have scaled for the most part out of the innovation side of the spectrum. But now all this demand that's coming Online that needs actual firm and reliable power. Okay, maybe we need more innovation here. So there's that kind of challenge side of AI or maybe opportunity side of AI from the power standpoint and then I think broadly just nerding out a bit on AI in of itself. It's just such a game changer for both software and hardware companies. We're using AI in everything we do, both at the operational level, but also from an engineering standpoint. Over the weekend I was tinkering with some of these no code AI tools like Cursor and I was able to build an AI chat over our data in a day. It's not amazing, but it works. And so I think the ability for AI now too to be able to almost accelerate innovation, even just at the operating and non asset levels is really exciting. The other quick point there though that I've been talking to a couple of climate tech investors on is in a way, I almost think all this AI innovation, especially at the software level, creates another opportunity for hardware. Because all of a sudden if you're pure play software, it's a really, really low barrier to entry to compete. Right. If I'm building another pure play fintech company or sales marketing sort of intelligence startup, it's such a low barrier to entry, which I think now it kind of makes a case again for hardware and physical assets or at least like hardware enabled software. Cause then you have your barrier to entry.
Stephen Lacy
Jigar, are there any underserved sectors right now that stand out to you?
Jigar Shah
Well, I think it goes back to, to, you know, what we've been talking about, which is that there are so many sectors that save people money. Right. And I think we're in this weird spot where for a long time no one cared about energy efficiency, for instance, right. But energy efficiency is back in vogue now because one in six households in the United States are behind on their energy bills. Right. And so you're like, oh, we need to figure out energy efficiency again. I think you're, you're also similarly seeing a lot of these last mile solutions. So for instance, multifamily housing for solar has always been difficult because you could serve the common loads, but you couldn't really serve individual tenants, right. But then you've got virtual net metering programs that have been canceled. And so some of the ways of solving this on the policy side have gone away. And so now you need hardware solutions to physically serve individual tenants, you know, with their own connection. So I think that like you've got all sorts of these like niche solutions that are actually in areas like Catherine was saying they are still transacting, like clean capital, buying existing solar and battery projects. And so you're in this place where a lot of these niche solutions have been overlooked for the last four years as people are looking for dreaming big. And I think now folks are thinking again about dreaming small and getting more targeted exits without like this trillion dollar sort of theoretical market size.
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, it's interesting, Bloomberg published a piece where they asked four wealth advisors, if someone came to you with a million dollars, what would you tell them to invest in? And one said infrastructure, water, power, transportation, comms, infrastructure. That's the place to go. The second one said real estate. So it's like green and sustainable. Real estate was one of them data centers, of course. And another one said dynamic go anywhere funds, flexible funds with no benchmarks like go for that. The fourth one said healthcare, which we don't, you know, we're not, we're not in that business. But it was interesting that three of them really do have a place in energy. And I was, I would say that when I was talking to Jesse Teachman again from mkb, he was remarking on in the survey cam that sustainable mobility and how low it was on the list was surprising because he said, you know, EV sales do continue to grow, if more slowly in the US and outside the us it's like super accelerate. It's on an accelerant, especially in China. And so the question is in that, that space and in that sector which, you know, our, our big beautiful bill right now is trying to sell off all of the postal service electric vehicles and take down the charging stations, which will cost $1.5 billion of taxpayer money to just destroy. Will the EV sector, which is now being taken down supposedly in the us, will we be pulled along by global Dynamics or vice versa? How will that end up? And I think that's an interesting place to watch.
Kim Zhu
I think this is starting to get more attention, but we've been starting to think a lot more about adaptation and resilience. Coming back to that resilience word, I think historically the framework for climate and clean energy has been really around mitigation, decarbonization, avoidance. How do we make that emissions number go down? And now I think it's also factoring in an increasingly warming world. Right. A world where there's just more risk, not to mention climate risk, but just more overall risk with all the geopolitical stuff that's going on. And so I think that's an area we're starting to try to understand how do you build a framework for what resilient solutions look like, whether it's grid resilience, whether it's things like hardening the grid or wildfire resilience, or it's maybe a bit more meta in terms of resilience, not just physical assets, but digital assets as well. So I think that's an area we're starting to think a lot more about, is what do these climate resilience, what do these broadly energy resilience plays look like? But I think historically, investors haven't really been putting that picture together as a sector to invest in.
Stephen Lacy
How do you all think we're going to define this year? Kim, you have a little bit of a head start here. You can see the numbers. But with investments declining this year, with this growing gap in the missing middle, this middle in the middle that you identified, how do you think this is all going to shake out for the rest of the year? And how do you think we'll define 2025 as we look back?
Kim Zhu
Yeah, it's a good question. I do think on face value, it's easy to look at the numbers and say, oh no, it's decreasing, there's a gap, there's a missing middle. But at the end of the day, it's not just about the funding numbers. The funding numbers are kind of a means to an end. It's about what solutions are scaling and whether these solutions are scaling or not. So at siteline, we actually look at it a bit differently. I mean, we do track investment, of course, but rather than just say investment good, investment bad, we came up with a framework called the sector readiness curve, which is maybe very inspired by the adoption readiness levels that I think Vanessa Chen at the DOE came up with. And the idea behind this is when we measure success, we want to measure it a bit more broadly when thinking about commercialization. So the sector readiness curve, we take into account things like, like technology readiness, things like financing, but also things like project deployment, demand policy, economics. Right. Are these solutions starting to get to cost competitive or not, as well as things like supply? Right. Is there an ecosystem of mature players in this space or is it still just startups trying to be vertically integrated? And so that's kind of the framework we like to apply to specific solutions in the clean energy and climate tech space. And there's a lot of bright spots here when we use that framework. Things like, we've talked about energy solutions like grid enhancing technologies. I think there's again, an increase in interest around things like DERs and VPPs and how can you apply that framework to it? Clean baseload power. There's a lot of interest there. Now we're seeing project announcements, we're seeing demand because of all these hyperscalers and data center developers. And so I think when you look at it from that perspective, it's not just, oh, investment's down, investment will be down this year. I don't think that's going to be a surprise to anyone. But we kind of want to look at this broader sector readiness curve. And if you apply solar and storage and EVs to that framework, you can see that they've hit that exponential part of the curve, that they, they've gone past the sort of cost parity threshold and are scaling now without the need for venture or growth investment to go up or down. So that's kind of how we think about the year and beyond is really looking at it from that standpoint.
Jigar Shah
Yeah, I generally look at these things in 10 year cycles. So I think when you look back to 2017, which was sort of the start of the cycle, we were at $8 billion of total investment that year. So I think when you look at the compounded annual growth of investment broadly, it's still remarkable to our sector. Right. I feel like people are benchmarking us to the unsustainable $60 billion number from 2022. But like, you know, we're actually doing a lot right now. And I think that the other piece to what Kim just said is that the culture change that we've been able to extract from people the last four years has truly been shocking. Right? I mean, for you to get to one in four vehicles sold globally to be electric this year, like think about, I mean, everyone talks about China, but no one talks about Ethiopia. Like, Ethiopia is not allowing any internal combustion engine vehicles to be imported into the country this year. Right. Why? Because then they have to import gasoline and diesel, which they also don't make. Right. So this goes to the new jewel order piece. They're like, only electric vehicles can be imported into our country now. Right. When you think about Pakistan and like how instead of actually turning to diesel when they had these huge power disruptions, they now are the first country in the entire world that sells solar as an appliance. Right. Literally, the guy who has a bodega down the street will sell you two solar panels, our charge controller and a battery. And, and you use your own YouTube video to put it together and install it. Right. And they're doing that at 12 gigawatts a year. Right. I just think that the amount of transformational change we've done within the adoption readiness level framework is so large that people get caught in the weeds of like, what's happening with green steel. I was like, who the. Who cares? Like, honestly, when you think about the fact that, that the electric utility companies now have, as Kim suggested, the head of grid modernization, the head of grid flexibility. Right. We now have Tyler Norris getting invited to an invite only meeting with Chris Wright, which is, I think, the later part of this week, to talk about demand flexibility for the grid. I mean, we're in. We're in an extraordinarily different place where we now are mainstream, we're not alternative anymore. And I just don't think that the frameworks that we've used for the past six or seven years captures just how mainstream we are for government leaders, for the leaders of pension funds, for the leaders of all of these large capital flows.
Stephen Lacy
Katherine, final thoughts.
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, I see technologies like geothermal, that was always the stepchild, now becoming like a real child and really getting to scale. I see micro grids, all of those grid enhancing technologies. I can't agree more on that. That's just incredible. And then distributed energy like DERs are gonna be a huge thing. And these are technologies that work, they're proven and now they're scaling. And part of it is working, of course, because I'm a hammer, a policy hammer and everything looks like a nail. We're gonna be working on policy, whether it's state or federal, to try to enhance those. But those are gonna be deployed no matter what. I honestly believe that.
Stephen Lacy
So, Kim, do investors believe we're in some new macro cycle goal?
Kim Zhu
It depends what investors you talk to, I guess. I think there's the investors that are excited to stay the course and have been in the space for the last 10 years and will continue to be in the space for the next 10 years. And there's a lot of as good investors will see the opportunity right now. And it might not look good when you look at overall funding numbers, but when you're actually going deal by deal and you're actually seeing deployment and good company scale, that's kind of the measure of success.
Stephen Lacy
Kim Zhu is the CEO and co founder of Sightline Climate. Kim, thank you, thank you. I really enjoyed this one. Jigger, good to see you. Of course, Kathryn Hamilton. See you later.
Katherine Hamilton
Yeah, it's great to be here.
Stephen Lacy
Open Circuit is produced by Latitude Media. Jigar Shah and Kathryn Hamilton are my regular co hosts. The show is edited and produced by me, with Sean Marquand serving as our technical director. He also wrote our theme song. Anne Bailey is our senior podcast editor. Latitude Media is supported by Prelude Ventures, and for more in depth reporting on the topics we cover on the show, sign up. For Latitude Media's Daily, Weekly or AI Energy Nexus newsletter, go to latitudemedia.com and hit subscribe. You can find our transcripts there as well. And I've noticed a bunch of new comments rolling in on Apple Podcasts about the show. Thanks to everyone who's left comments and continued to rate the show. It's hugely helpful to us, so if you haven't done that already, please do that on Spotify or Apple and send a link to your friends and colleagues.
Unnamed Speaker
Spread the word around.
Stephen Lacy
We'll see you next week. Thanks for being here.
Open Circuit: Pain and Resilience for Climate Tech Investors
Latitude Media, Released June 27, 2025
In the June 27, 2025 episode of Open Circuit, hosted by Stephen Lacy of Latitude Media, industry veterans delve into the tumultuous landscape of climate tech investing. Joined by co-hosts Katherine Hamilton of 38 North Solutions and Jigar Shah of Multiplier, along with special guest Kim Zhu, CEO and co-founder of Sightline Climate, the discussion navigates the challenges and opportunities that investors face amid policy uncertainties and a shifting global investment landscape.
The episode opens with a candid discussion about the current state of venture investing in clean technologies, highlighting a significant decline in investment activity compared to previous years.
Kim Zhu shares insights from Sightline’s latest survey, noting a 19% decline in investments in the first half of the year compared to the prior period:
“[08:00] Kim Zhu: We've seen investment decline about 19% relative to the prior half year.”
Keith Pearl, an unnamed speaker, elaborates on the mixed sentiments among investors, emphasizing themes like resilience and opportunity despite the downturn:
“[05:30] Unnamed Speaker: Reckoning and survival are prominent, but optimism and opportunity also feature in smaller print.”
Jigar Shah adds a perspective on the abundance of opportunities, especially for seasoned investors able to navigate the downturn:
“[07:34] Jigar Shah: There's a lot of opportunity... you can now put money into those companies and get a piece of what they're doing at much more opportunistic costs.”
This section underscores the resilience of experienced investors and the strategic opportunities that arise even in challenging times.
A significant portion of the conversation centers on policy uncertainty and its repercussions on climate tech investments.
Kim Zhu identifies tariffs as the most impactful policy concern, with 41% of survey respondents citing them as a primary fear:
“[11:36] Kim Zhu: Tariffs were causing the most fear, followed by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and reconciliation uncertainties.”
The discussion highlights ongoing legislative battles, particularly around the IRA repeal and reconciliation bill:
“[13:43] Katherine Hamilton: It's more about political positioning... there's a lot of uncertainty on where the tax credits will land.”
Stephen Lacy timestamps the discussion to emphasize the immediacy of policy decisions:
“[16:03] Stephen Lacy: We are talking midday Wednesday, this will come out Friday morning.”
Jigar Shah criticizes the influence of non-experts on policy decisions, highlighting the confusion and unpredictability:
“[16:27] Jigar Shah: It's a funky time where influential but uninformed individuals are swaying policy decisions, leaving investors uncertain about the future.”
This segment illustrates how policy volatility is creating a landscape of uncertainty, compelling investors to reassess their strategies and focus on policy-resilient business models.
A critical theme explored is the “missing middle” in funding for climate tech companies, particularly those at the First of a Kind (FoAK) stage.
Kim Zhu defines the missing middle as the $45 to $100 million funding gap that is too large for venture capital but too small for traditional infrastructure investors:
“[34:27] Kim Zhu: The FoAK phase requires $45 to $100 million, which is too much for venture capital but too little for infrastructure investors.”
Jigar Shah emphasizes the exit challenges faced by investors, questioning who will buy these companies after significant investment:
“[40:40] Jigar Shah: Investors are unsure who will buy these companies after investing $45 to $100 million, leading to hesitancy and potential stagnation.”
Katherine Hamilton adds that without Department of Energy (DOE) support, many FoAK projects are at risk of failing due to the lack of necessary funding:
“[37:28] Katherine Hamilton: The closure of DOE programs exacerbates the missing middle, leading to contract walkaways and project cancellations.”
Kim Zhu highlights innovative funding structures emerging to address this gap, such as non-dilutive capital and project preferred equity:
“[43:11] Kim Zhu: Capital structures like non-dilutive loans and project preferred equity are being explored to bridge the missing middle without further diluting ownership.”
This discussion underscores the critical funding shortfall that hinders the scaling of innovative climate technologies, emphasizing the need for creative financial solutions.
Amid uncertainties in the US market, investors are increasingly looking towards European and global markets for climate tech opportunities.
Kim Zhu observes a shift in Climate Week attendees, with investors from the US, Middle East, Asia, and Canada exploring European markets:
“[04:16] Kim Zhu: There's a significant pullback in the US, and investors are seeking opportunities in Europe, viewing London Climate Week as a new convening hub.”
Jigar Shah discusses how countries like the UK and Australia are actively attracting US companies with favorable policies and resources:
“[26:00] Jigar Shah: Nations like the UK and Australia are launching initiatives and allocating substantial funds to attract US climate tech companies, fostering a competitive global investment environment.”
Katherine Hamilton notes that fewer EU companies are seeking US capital, making Europe a more attractive destination for investment:
“[24:54] Katherine Hamilton: EU companies are increasingly hesitant to move to the US, making Europe a hotspot for climate tech investments.”
Kim Zhu points out the challenges of investing in Europe, such as higher electricity prices and regulatory complexity:
“[26:00] Kim Zhu: Europe's higher electricity costs and complex regulatory environment pose significant challenges for scaling climate tech solutions.”
This segment highlights a geographical pivot in climate tech investments, with Europe emerging as a key market despite its inherent challenges.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) emerges as a double-edged sword, presenting both challenges and opportunities in the climate tech sector.
Kim Zhu explains that AI is being integrated into both operational and engineering aspects of climate tech, acting as a catalyst for innovation:
“[51:08] Kim Zhu: AI is accelerating innovation across software and hardware, enabling rapid development and operational efficiencies.”
Katherine Hamilton reflects on emerging technologies, noting that AI-related advancements are influencing investment decisions:
“[48:33] Katherine Hamilton: AI integration is evident in sectors like grid technology, where it's driving demand for smarter, more efficient solutions.”
Kim Zhu also mentions that while AI lowers the barrier to entry for pure-play software companies, it simultaneously creates opportunities for hardware and physical assets:
“[51:26] Kim Zhu: AI's prevalence in software makes hardware-enabled solutions more attractive due to higher entry barriers and differentiation.”
Kim Zhu further discusses how AI impacts grid enhancing technologies, leading to better investment prospects despite broader market declines:
“[49:30] Kim Zhu: Grid enhancing technologies have seen their best quarter ever in 2025, driven by AI's role in demand forecasting and grid optimization.”
This discussion illustrates how AI is reshaping investment strategies, fostering innovation while simultaneously challenging traditional business models.
Looking ahead, the panel discusses frameworks and long-term outlooks for climate tech investments, emphasizing sector readiness and cultural shifts.
Kim Zhu introduces Sightline's Sector Readiness Curve, a framework that assesses commercialization through technology readiness, financing, project deployment, demand, policy, and economics:
“[58:37] Kim Zhu: Our Sector Readiness Curve evaluates climate tech solutions based on technology readiness, financing, deployment, demand, policy, and economic factors to measure commercialization success.”
Jigar Shah adopts a decadal perspective, highlighting transformative changes and mainstream acceptance of climate tech:
“[61:39] Jigar Shah: Over a 10-year cycle, we've seen remarkable growth and cultural changes, with climate tech now being mainstream in government and large capital flows.”
Katherine Hamilton underscores the scaling of proven technologies like geothermal and distributed energy resources (DERs), driven by robust policy support:
“[64:22] Katherine Hamilton: Technologies such as geothermal and microgrids are scaling effectively, supported by strong policy frameworks that ensure their deployment irrespective of market fluctuations.”
Kim Zhu reiterates the importance of viewing investment trends through the lens of solution scalability rather than mere funding numbers:
“[59:01] Kim Zhu: Success is measured by the scalability of solutions and their ability to achieve cost competitiveness, not just by investment volumes.”
Jigar Shah emphasizes the global cultural shift towards renewable energy and decentralized solutions, citing examples from countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan:
“[64:21] Jigar Shah: Countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan are leading transformative changes by mandating electric vehicle imports and promoting solar appliances, reflecting a global realignment towards renewable energy.”
This forward-looking analysis conveys a positive long-term outlook, underscoring the sector’s ability to adapt and thrive despite short-term challenges.
The June 27, 2025 episode of Open Circuit paints a nuanced picture of the climate tech investment landscape. While facing significant policy uncertainties and a funding gap in the missing middle, investors and startups exhibit resilience and adaptability. The shift towards global markets, the integration of AI, and the focus on sector readiness frameworks offer pathways for navigating the complexities of climate tech investing. With innovative capital structures and a cultural shift towards mainstream adoption, the climate tech sector stands poised for transformative growth in the coming years.
Jigar Shah [07:34]:
“There's a lot of opportunity... you can now put money into those companies and get a piece of what they're doing at much more opportunistic costs.”
Kim Zhu [11:36]:
“Tariffs were causing the most fear, followed by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and reconciliation uncertainties.”
Katherine Hamilton [37:28]:
“The closure of DOE programs exacerbates the missing middle, leading to contract walkaways and project cancellations.”
Jigar Shah [16:27]:
“It's a funky time where influential but uninformed individuals are swaying policy decisions, leaving investors uncertain about the future.”
Kim Zhu [51:08]:
“AI is accelerating innovation across software and hardware, enabling rapid development and operational efficiencies.”
Jigar Shah [61:39]:
“Countries like Ethiopia and Pakistan are leading transformative changes by mandating electric vehicle imports and promoting solar appliances, reflecting a global realignment towards renewable energy.”
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the episode, providing a clear and engaging overview for those who haven't listened to the podcast.