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Before we start, a quick note. This week's episode is a deep dive into two very different approaches for data centers off grid, gas versus batteries and load flexibility. And as you hear us talk about often, this is the most dynamic moment for distributed resources and load flexibility we've ever seen. And that's why Latitude Media's next conference is called Flex Summit. It's being held in October in Austin, Texas. And it's going to bring together the senior people across planning markets, tech, finance and utilities who are working to scale grid flexibility as an essential resource. So if you're in the industry already or you listen to this podcast and think, I need more deep dives into how this market is shaping up, then Flex Summit is for you. Head on over to latitudemedia.com events or click the link in the show notes and you'll see the full agenda and
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you can register for Flex Summit 2026.
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And of course, we give our listeners a bonus. You can use the code PODS10 to P O D S10 PODS10 for a 10% discount. And now onto the show
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Latitude Media covering the new frontiers of the energy transition.
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God, I spent a lot of time with you guys in my ears this Saturday.
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Can we talk about the fact that you ran 22 miles on Saturday Open circuit hosted by David Goggins and Jigger Shaw over here. I wonder 22 miles?
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Do you have a 40 pound pack on?
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No, I do hike with a 75 pound weight vest when I am doing cross training, but I just run so I spent a lot of time with you guys in my ears.
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Well, now I've got a decision to make. If everything goes to I can either go to Jigger's house and benefit from the technology or I can go to Massachusetts and have Steven protect me. I don't know.
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I don't know how much protecting I'm doing these days. I used to be a power lifter and I was like 60 pounds heavier and the protecting could have happened then, but now I'll just run away from things.
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I think you misunderstand, Tim. The reason you're in need is so you can protect us.
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That's right.
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Like that flak jacket in the back is not for show
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from Latitude Media.
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This is open circuit. Data centers have created several schisms in the world of energy. Some see them as an emissions nightmare. Others see them as a historic opportunity to leverage clean resources. Some see them as the reason your electricity bill is climbing. Others see them as a deep pocketed customer who can modernize the grid. Some see them as a destabilizing threat to the electricity system. Others see them as a sophisticated tool for flexing load and using the grid better. And one of the more interesting divides is over off grid versus grid connected data centers. Should they island themselves to protect ratepayers and get online faster? Or should they use their load to be better grid citizens? That has evolved a bit as most companies pushing for off grid data centers admit they want to connect to the system eventually. But it's brought us to a more interesting secondary question. Just how much behind the meter power gets built in the next few years and what fills it? Semianalysis is out with a projection that we could see 40 gigawatts of behind the meter generation at US data centers by 2028, mostly gas. So is that where we're headed? And is it really the fastest path to power? This week we're wading into the debate with someone who's betting batteries are a much bigger part of the answer that's coming right.
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OpenCircuit is supported by Fish Tank PR, an award winning PR firm focused on climate and energy tech, renewables and sustainability. Fish Tank is known for providing smart relations that connect brands to journalists on both today and tomorrow's most important energy stories. If you want a PR partner that's thoughtful to shoots straight and gets results, you'll like Fishtank PR. To learn more about Fishtank's approach, visit fishtankpr.com that's F I S C-H fishtankpr.com.
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I'm Stephen Lacy. I'm the Executive editor at Latitude Media. Thanks so much for being here. Chigarh Shah is a clean energy investor, co managing partner at Multiplier. How are you sir?
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Doing well, doing well.
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And here with us as a guest co host from the American Riviera is Tim Hade. He's a senior Vice president at Voltus, which is a new title after the company he co founded, Brightfield AI, was acquired by Voltus in June. How are you?
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I'm doing great. Although I realize this is the first time I've ever been on this show without Catherine here to protect me. So I'm a little nervous, but I'm ready to go. Let's do this.
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I'll provide a buffer.
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The real question is whether you can see the oil derricks off the coast of Santa Barbara.
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Right. I heard the Trump administration is trying to push for the reopening of an oil pipeline there off the coast.
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Yeah, I mean we could do a whole episode on that. The if you guys want to Google The Sable pipeline. It's quite controversial here in my local community and a lot going on around that. But the answer to your question, Jagger, is yes, everyone in Santa Barbara can see the oil rigs out in the ocean and it's, I think, a lot of people in the community's mission to get rid of them. So, you know, everyone's working on it.
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Fun fact, the first offshore oil rigs in the US were off the coast of Santa Barbara. Right?
C
That's right. That's right. Yeah, it's. It all start. It all started here. So you're welcome, world.
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So Tim is a familiar voice. He was on the show last year. He was on the show with us 10 years ago and he was recently on Jigger's other podcast, Energy Empire. So. And you're actually going to be digging deep on CNI batteries with Shale Khan on our sister podcast Catalyst. This is starting to. You're on all these shows that we produce. It's starting to feel like those circular deals that tech companies are signing with each other to fund AI.
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Yeah, we're all trying to figure it out together. So it's. Apparently all my friends have podcasts now, so I love being here.
B
No bubble here, just supply meeting demand. Well, that gets us quickly to the Voltus acquisition. So what you doing at Brightfield with CNI batteries that fit into what Voltus is doing?
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Yeah, so I guess the high level story here, and I'm excited to talk more about this, is, look, I think in the last 18 to 24 months, what's happening with the electric grid and just load growth generally has really catalyzed and come into focus. And so again, we're in this world in which over the next three to five years, I think the foundation of the next generation of economic prosperity in the world is going to be determined. And a huge limiting factor is power. And so depending on who you talk to, something like 100 gigawatts of net new demand is forecast over the next five years. The way we're going to get there is primarily load flexibility. In my opinion, a piece of load flexibility is deploying storage, where you can deploy storage. And so about a year ago, I was thinking specifically about commercial and industrial battery systems. And one of the big problems with deploying commercial and industrial battery systems, for reference, we've deployed a lot of batteries in the US over the last decade. Roughly 90% of them are utility scale batteries connected to the transmission system. About 10% of them are residential batteries. So home batteries, Tesla powerwalls and things of that nature. And 90 plus 10 is 100. So roughly 0% of those batteries have been deployed in commercial facilities, despite the fact that commercial and industrial facilities are roughly 60% of demand on the electric grid. So no commercial and industrial batteries. I was thinking a lot about that problem, and one of the things that keeps coming up is roughly 25% of the cost of a typical CNI battery project is what I'll loosely call transaction costs. Right? So development, building financial models, permitting, interconnection, all that type of stuff. And so at the same time, me and a few friends were playing around with AI and learning everything we could learn about sort of how to build agentic tools. And I think the idea was basically, can we build agentic tools that will help reduce the friction in the transaction process for CNI batteries? And the answer to that's yes. That's actually a really good application of AI. And we did that on the commercial battery side of things. And so many other companies are looking at that as part of their value stack. And it's working really, really well. You guys know all this, but forever, right? Like, one of the arguments against DERS has been soft costs or transaction costs are too high. And I think AI is really a huge part of the solution. And so we built a company to try to address that, and we're still in the process of building that technology. But when this opportunity to join Voltas came along, I think, like, now is the moment, right? And so it was an opportunity to be part of something bigger than ourselves, and we're really happy to be here.
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Sweet.
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I see merch. I see merch. The soft costs are too damn high.
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That's a great sticker. I would put that on my car. I would wear that T shirt. Jigger. Why is CI? I mean, Tim just sort of explained the problem with transaction costs. Why is the CNI market so damn hard?
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Because fundamentally, the challenge with CNI is that on the one hand, you have people who are way too sophisticated, and so they ask you way too many questions. And two years later, and 14 meetings later, you still don't have a contract. And you're saying, how much more time am I going to invest in this damn relationship before I get dollars out of it? And on the other side, you've got 90% of commercial buildings that are less than 50,000 square feet and they're unbankable, Right? Think like the local church, the local food bank, the, you know, like laundromat, the, like, dry cleaner, the whatever, right? And so they're not bankable in the Traditional sense. And the last thing I'd say is when you look at residential, residential is funded as a pool, right, Using FICO score. And so you have a predicted amount of failure within that portfolio that you model upfront. CNI has never been funded that way. CNI has always been funded on a deal by deal basis. So the bank wants to know that every single deal works and none of them fail, even though of course, some of them do. And so moving to a portfolio wide financing mechanism is the key to unlocking CNI. Knowing that 1% of the portfolio is going to fail every year, it's fine, right, because you've charged Everybody an extra 0.3 cents per kilowatt hour for the power and you know, you've got some reserves in there, but nobody has done it that way.
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You know, what jigger said is 100%, right? If you look backwards, it's sort of the history of the industry. But I think, you know, one of the things that is really, really exciting about this moment, right, is for a lot of commercial and industrial customers, reducing energy costs has gone from being a vitamin to a painkiller, right? And so, you know, if you go back sort of 10 years, right, and you talk to you, you would go out and you would meet with the facility of a grocery store, a cold storage facility or a data center, right? You know, again, everyone was interested in reducing their electricity spend. You know, various companies had different sustainability targets and resilience and reliability, all these things mattered. But it definitely wasn't a top priority. Right? And I think the shift that's happened over the last 36 months has really been, it's become for a lot of those customers, an absolute necessity, right? It's impacting their bottom line economics. And so I think, you know, we're in this moment now, we're having conversations with, you know, CNI owners is a lot more productive and it's moving a lot faster than it's ever moved. But the key to this, right, is really aggregation, right? And that's where Voltas comes in. And so, you know, any single CNI facility, you know, 200 kilowatts, 500 kilowatts, something like that, independently, that doesn't really have system wide benefits. If you can aggregate those loads together, then you can really start to play some games on the grid and unlock opportunities for large loads and economic growth. That aggregation piece is really, I think, the key to how successful we're going to be in this next phase of the energy transition.
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All right, so let's get into the philosophical divides around data centers, I think in two parts. One is just the status of off grid data centers, the debate around how many fully islanded data centers we're actually going to see. And then I want to talk about the behind the meteor generation projections. So I think we know where JIGGER stands on this. JIGGER has been highly skeptical, and I want you to expand on it a little bit, jigger. But I mean, over the last year there has been this recognition that there will probably be few islanded data centers and that many of the off grid data centers are going to be seeking some kind of bridge to the grid. But we have seen some very large projects announced or under development at our Transition AI conference in April. Tim, you predicted that off grid data centers, fully islanded data centers, will be a specialty service because the engineering challenges are so high. So where do you think we are with practical implementation?
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Look, I mean, I think the thing a lot of sort of market analysis misses is how hard it is to build an off grid data center. And so, in essence, people think about this as like, you build a power plant here and then you build a data center here and like, voila, you're off grid. And that's the furthest thing from the truth. In fact, like, I would argue that 80% of the difficulty of building one of those projects is the power electronics that sit in the middle. Or another way of thinking about it is you're essentially building your own electric grid, right? You're building a micro grid. And there just aren't a lot of people that know how to do that, right? And so you can build models and you can say like, the gas turbine costs X and the core and shell of the data center costs Y. And the lead times are this, that, and the other thing. But at the end of the day, you have to be able to hire people who know how to do really, really, really sophisticated electrical work in order to connect those two things. And there just aren't enough of those people, right? And so again, I think off grid data centers are a thing, right? And there are a handful of companies, right? Our friend Sheldon at Intersect and the Crusoe guys and my former colleagues at Scale who all have these incredible teams that are built to do this thing. And I think a lot of those folks are going to be wildly successful. But if you sort of put all that together, we're talking about a handful of gigawatts of net new capacity added over the next like three to five years. And this three to five year window is really the critical Point. And so again, I think it'll be a thing, but it's not the answer to the problems. Or put another way, like, people should listen to Jigger
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jigger. How many fully off grid data centers do you think will get built either in number or capacity terms?
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I think Tim's right. But, but I think that the, the thing that was really shocking to me about the news and the news cycle that's come out in the last month is just how tone deaf it is right? Today. It's very clear that you choosing to go off grid is not protecting ratepayers from rising electricity costs. In fact, it is making things worse. You are making supply chain tighter. Everything is going up in price because of you. You are more kilowatt hours of sales to the overall shared system. So then you're not helping bills go down over time. Right. And so the level of selfishness in the current news cycle is just shocking to me. They only care about their own tokens and their own compute. They don't actually care about all of the people who are protesting data centers around the country and those people who are voting for, for candidates for office who are saying just shut it all down. Like, we're just like tired of the extreme selfishness.
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I want to dig into that a little bit more. I think you've made this point on a previous episode. Basically what you're saying is that they are not bringing the added load to the grid and potentially benefit the grid system that it's connected to, and instead they're creating supply chain constraints that make it more expensive for everybody else. Is that what you're saying?
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Yeah, because they're buying power transformers, they're buying batteries, they're buying gas turbines that are short in supply. They're buying, you know, you know, all super capacitors, all sorts of stuff that ultimately was not built for this purpose. Right. The supply chain is not in place to build 50 gigawatts of off grid data centers. On top of that, the, the people that Tim suggested are the experts. Here are the experts, and I love them to pieces, but they're finding that every time they think they're close to completing their design, something else is missing. And they have to add another $10amegawatt hour to the cost of the system just to make sure this edge case is taken care of. Right. Initially it was like, we can just run these things off of backup natural gas generators. Then they're like, crap. We actually need to have 50% redundancy in natural gas generators. Oh, wait, where's the workforce to actually maintain these natural gas generators. Wait, we need lithium ion batteries to buffer the natural gas generators. Wait, we're adding 15 cycles a day. Lithium ion won't work. Let's go to vanadium redox or zinc halide. Wait, that's hurting the batteries. We need super capacitors between the batteries and the data center. Right now they realize they need to move to an 800 volt bus because they can't actually just take this stuff and make it DC. So then you had Heron Power putting out their 800 volt bus strategy, of which only 20% of it exists in real life and the other 80% is in startups that are trying to put it together. And you're like, wait, what is the final project going to cost? And all along the way, they're buying esoteric components that are very essential for people in different industries, like semiconductors, et cetera, and they're making those supply chains short. And so then those suppliers are tripling prices. Right? And so I just. The thing is that, look, I love an engineering challenge. I do. And so the fact that these people are building an off grid data center, like, is such a heroic feat and I think the world of the engineers that are working on it, but the notion that you're gonna do this en masse across the country is a deeply selfish decision. And the notion that people don't understand that, like, is just shocking to me in this moment.
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I think that they, many of them have really convinced themselves that they are doing right by the ratepayer, though, that they are insulating themselves and protecting ratepayers if the data center doesn't materialize or, you know, the data center is underutilized. I think that there's a real core belief that they are doing the right thing.
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Yeah, you're right. People can make up lots of things, particularly using AI that likes to agree with you to like, actually make you, like, dumber. Right? But the notion that like, you've gone to experts who actually understand how the grid works, right? Those experts are in charge of those grids in those states. In Utah, they do not believe that offshore off grid data centers will reduce rates for everybody who lives in Utah, like in Texas, they absolutely don't believe that, which is why they're creating their Batch 0 process, right? That is not true in any place across the country where an expert actually lives. Like, you need an n minus one framework by which to power a data center. And I guarantee you that even these data centers that come online, that Tim's talking about that within the next seven years of operation they're going to be like, oh crap, this whole thing sucks and we're going to abandon this compute and we're going to move to other places because it's too damn hard to keep this thing running.
C
Yeah, I mean, look, I think what Jigger's talking about though is I think when you put all this together, the reason that I'm so optimistic about the moment and I think that there's a really good outcome here. Right. So the one bone I'll pick with the boss here is I do think the hyperscalers care. Right. Certainly that's been every experience I've had with the hyperscaler is they are thinking really, really, really hard about this. And I do think that there's a recognition that the way to get AI infrastructure built is in large part based on meeting the communities that they're working in where they are and delivering tangible benefits. And then, look, I think over the past 12 to 18 months, what's emerged is a clear pathway for doing that, which we can loosely call load flexibility. But we can talk more about what that actually means. But the idea is basically that you can connect data centers to the grid in a way that has social benefits for everyone in that local area. Again, I think ultimately this, there is that intent there to be a good citizen of the grid and there's a way to do that. Right? That technology exists, those capabilities exist, and ultimately what we can, you know, what we can end up with over the next three to five years if we do this the right way is we can have a much better grid that's cheaper and cleaner and better for the average ratepayer. And at the same time we can add hundreds of gigawatts of data centers to the grid and everyone wins. And so one of the reasons I'm so excited about this moment is I do think there's this win, win construct in place and that's what you're seeing in the market. Right. And so again, I think that now is kind of the moment where everyone's economic and social incentives have aligned towards this common outcome. And now it's just a matter of execution.
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What do you guys make of Microsoft's Project Kilby in Texas? 2.7 gigawatts of turbines from GE, Vernova and Caterpillar. Do you think this project will get built and is it a model that we're likely to see? It is, they are eventually going to connect to the grid, but it's a multi year Project that will be off grid for, for the most part.
C
Yeah, maybe. Right. And so like just to put this in perspective and I think this is something people miss all the time. Right. Like you sent me this semi analysis report where they're like there's 40 gigawatts of you know, behind the meter data centers and we can unpack that if you want.
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Yeah, we're going to definitely get into that. Yeah.
C
I strongly disagree with their methodology and conclusions. Right. But like the important thing to know here. Right. Is when you talk about large data centers. Right. So let's say 500 megawatts plus. Right. Is a large data center. There are exactly zero off grid large data centers on the planet Earth today. In fact to the best of my knowledge there's only been one that's ever been built which is Colossus, which is what Elon Musk built in Mississippi and Memphis. And let's just say that's not a replicable model for the rest of the industry.
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And it's connected to TVA now and
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it's now connected to the grid. Right. But that was the only large data center that's ever been built off grid with no grid connection that's islanded for any long duration of time. That's a singular example. Again, what I would say about any off grid data center project, and I would include the Microsoft project in here is it's a science experiment, it's a first of a kind project and maybe it'll work and maybe it won't work. But I think if you're a hyperscaler and you're thinking about how do you build a replicable model that can get to scale. Yeah, it's like fine to try this stuff out. Right. And see what you can figure out, I guess. But again I think what they're going to find in practice is these things are really, really, really difficult to build. They're really really difficult to operate and maintain after you've built them. And a far better option is doing what we do know how to do, which is build data centers and connect them to the grid. And so I think that's what the likely outcome for most of these folks will be. There will be a lot of science experiments but ultimately what you'll see is co located interconnected to the grid data centers will be a thing. Off grid data centers, again with maybe, you know, edge cases being an exception, are not going to be a major part of this market.
D
Well and the irony is that we are trying to build a transmission line from the Permian Basin into the main heart of Texas because so many of the oil and gas rigs out there are running off of backup diesel generators and so off of very thin distribution lines. And so they're trying to beef up that entire grid just to get people off of backup generators onto the grid. And because of this exact project, all of the Republican senators and House members in Texas are so anti data centers that they're now trying to block the transmission line going into the Permian basin because it's for the data center. And I'm like, it's not for the data center, it's for decarbonizing the Permian basin so they're not running off of backup generators. And the data centers are so hated by the entire community that the Republicans who represent that part of Texas are now like against the transmission line getting built into that region, which is pushing out the date for that data center to be grid connected. The whole thing is just ridiculous.
B
Well, let's bring in the conversation about what the resource mix for behind the meter generation is going to look like. You mentioned the semianalysis projections. This is an influential chip and infrastructure research shop that has increasingly been dipping its toe into energy. They showed that they tracked 40,000 power plants nationwide and concluded that grid headroom, disparate capacity left over after covering peak demand will turn negative across the country by 2027. And as a result, they project over 40 gigawatts of behind the meter power at data centers by 2028, with equipment demand surpassing 50 gigawatts a year by 2029. So the question is, will all that get built? What fills that gap? Is it turbines, reciprocating engines, fuel cells, gas mostly top to bottom. Let's just walk through the arguments that semi analysis is making. Tim, you're shaking your head as I'm reading some of those numbers. What was your, what's your initial reaction to that top line number?
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Yeah, like my initial reaction is that, you know, everyone has access to Claude and anyone who wants to can produce a report. Right. So look, I think if you look at the semi analysis paper that you sent, right, it's titled US Grid Constraints Towards 40 GW of Behind the Meter Data center by 2028. Right. So let's keep that date in mind while we talk about this. They're talking about 18 months from now there are going to be 40 gigawatts of behind the meter data centers. So look, I think basically the analysis they walk through is the first point they make is there's 80 gigawatts of demand for new data centers over the next five years. Right. And I actually buy that argument. I think that's, you know, about directionally correct. Okay, so there's 80 gigawatts of demand and then they say there's not 80 gigawatts of availability on the grid. Now two points I'll make about this. The first thing is Jigger had Amit Narayan on his Energy Empire podcast I think two weeks ago and I listened to that and one of the things I try to decipher when in a world where everyone can write a report that sounds good is who's the author of the report? And so Amit has been doing this for 20 years. He was the founder of Autogrid, he's now the founder of Grid Care. He has true expertise in this. He says there's 300 gigawatts of headroom on the US electric grid. If you go look at the authors of the semi analysis report and you look at their background in the energy industry, they do not have 20 years of experience, of deep technical experience, right? So the author here matters, right? But they say there's no grid headroom. So the basic argument is we have 80 gigawatts of demand, there's no grid headroom, and therefore we're going to build 40 megawatts of off grid data centers.
B
40 gigawatts.
C
But they, yeah, 40 gigawatts in the next 18 months. Right. And so look like what they don't make is a compelling argument for how you're going to build 40 gigawatts of off grid data centers in the next 18 months. So put this in perspective. Like the build time for one of these projects is probably 36 to 48 months. Best case scenario, right? When you're building an off grid data center, you need all the same power electronics. Jigger mentioned this earlier. Transformers, switchgear, you know, relays, conduit, all these things. There's just supply chain shortages. So some of these items have 200 week lead times.
D
Right.
C
Right now in the world today, you can't get it for 200 weeks. And so there's no way that any project that's not currently under construction, permitted, financed and under constructed is coming online in the next 18 months. And we don't have 40 gigawatts of data centers that are currently under construction. And so the idea that we're going to get 40 gigawatts of net new off grid data centers in the next 18 months is, is factually incorrect, right? Like there's just No, I don't think comprehensive argument for it, nor do I think semianalysis makes an argument for it. They basically just say like, there's 80 gigawatts of demand, we're 40 gigawatts short, and therefore 40 gigawatts of off grid data centers are going to materialize. And that's just not the way it works.
D
Right.
C
And so the reality is like we have 80 gigawatts of demand. Maybe we can satisfy that and maybe we can't. But in a best case scenario, maybe 10 gigawatts of that will be these off grid data centers. And the vast majority of those are not going to come online in 2028. What we have over the next three years is the grid that we've already built.
D
Right.
C
And the good thing about the grid we've already built is depending on who you ask, we're currently operating that at 30 to 40% average capacity factor or utilization. And so we do have a lot of headroom on that grid if we can figure out how to sort of tweak things a little bit. So during the peak hours of time, we can flex load either at the data center or on the grid around it. And that's the path forward. The next three to five years is about load flexibility and that's going to be the driver of data centers being interconnected. And the vast majority, like 90%, is that that's the challenge we have in front of us. And everything else I think is kind of a distraction.
B
Okay, so jigger over to you on these numbers. So the claim is that behind the meter will power well over half of data centers by 2028. 50 gigawatts by 20 a year by 2029. What do you think about the overall numbers? Do you disagree with the actual numbers as Tim does, or is it just like the year they land in?
D
No, I mean, having talked to all the investors, I disagree with the numbers. I mean, just to be clear, all major investors of data centers have said that they will not finance off grid data centers because they don't believe that they will work. So if you go to the major investors behind data centers, they have all publicly said that they are skeptical and none of their independent engineers have validated that the data centers can actually work. So they're not sure what the value of their collateral is for investing in these projects. And so, like, this is the thing that Tim says, which I agree with fully, is that, look, I want to like semianalysis because it seems like nice people and they have a lot of Indian people there. But the thing is that it feels like semi refers to partial analysis when you're doing something as intelligent as they're doing, which is generally my experience with semi analysis is they're doing supply chain analysis. Right.
B
Particularly in semiconductor space and they're well respected there.
D
Totally where you have an extraordinary overhang of supply chain is in batteries. Right? We're short natural gas, we're short lots of other things. You know what? We're not short battery manufacturing capacity. We have battery manufacturing capacity for days. Not just in China and Asia, but also in the United States. Why? Because the loan programs office actually funded all of those plants. And so Ford is now converting their plants to utility scale batteries. So is Stellantis, so is sk. So are the people like we are going to be able to manufacture all these batteries in the United States, get the extra 10% bonus tax credit and guess who else is all in on batteries? The ooba. They extended battery tax credits through 2034. And so now all these people who are experts in solar financing are now becoming experts in battery financing. So we don't have a shortage of workforce in that area either. Right. And so my big argument here is just that like, like they are basically saying that the sector that has not built at this scale in over 15 years, so we have no workforce in that area. That's why Bechtel and Kiewit are charging three times more to install these natural gas generators than they were, you know, just 10 years ago. Right. Or five years ago. And all of that stuff is going to get resolved easily via Claude or why don't we talk about ChatGPT anymore by the way, Are they just not good anymore? I don't know. Anyway, and then like, but the, the area where we have 300,000 workers, where they're completely trained and ready to go, they've been deploying batteries for the better part of the last five years in California and Texas. Like they already have a financing supply chain behind them. But those people are not even in a report. Like, I mean like, it's just laughable on its face. And so like, so the thing for me is that do I think we're going to build a bunch of behind the meter natural gas? Yes, of course we are. They've already been purchased. Why would you just put them in like a warehouse somewhere? You're going to install them? I think that's great. Right? But I just think that when you think about the fact that they don't have firm gas capacity, it's five to seven years to build a new natural gas pipeline or expand the gas pipeline so they can't get guaranteed natural gas and delivery to their site. All they can do is to burn gas when available on the line, right? And so they will hopefully take those data centers off grid to help provide some of that demand flexibility that Tim was talking about for 200 hours or 300 hours a year, which I think is a great use case for those behind the meter natural gas plants. But the notion that you're going to run them off grid, right? And then off run them off grid for seven years, which is what the Rhodium report was saying, is ridiculous. And I just don't understand how many times people who have real technical expertise, like me or Tim or others can say this and people are like, defend yourself against a 28 year old using Claude, please. Again, please. Defend yourself again against a 28 year old using Claude again, please. Like, no, like, come on, it's not even serious, you know, just in fairness.
C
And I have a lot of empathy for the 28 year olds using cloud, right? Because I used to be that person, right? And so again, you know, 15 years ago when I started doing this, like I got good at Google and I learned a bunch of things and I would go to my, you know, boss at the time, Howard Goodman, who is my co founder at Scale, and I would be like, hey, I figured this thing out, right? And what you learn over time is that like, well, there's actually a lot more nuance to building these projects than what you can learn on the Internet. That, right? Like real experience matters in electricity, right? Electricity is dangerous, safety matters, right? Like what you do matters. And so, you know, again, I think what you can learn just kind of looking at a supply chain and trying to do math on a spreadsheet and what you can actually construct in the field are two very, very different things. And I think that's the part that like, what I'll loosely call like the tech bro community misses about this whole thing, right? This isn't like build a piece of software and then you have a power plant. This is like real physical infrastructure that requires a skill set that not many people have, right? Like we haven't been building mega projects in the United States at this scale in my life, right? And so the people that build these things just don't exist at that scale. And it takes a lot of time to train them, right. And sort of produce that workforce. So we're starting on that, right? So you've seen like Meta and Google make announcements about investing in workforce development and you know, this, that and the other thing. And if that goes well, right, like five, ten years from now, we'll have a new crop of master electricians who can go in and build these projects. But again, like we're talking about the next three to five years. And in the next three to five years, that's just not something you can make, right? It's something that you have to build over time.
B
So this analysis that we're talking about specifically punts on flexibility, but says that we think behind the meter will be a more prominent solution. They said that they're going to come out with a flexibility report, but what do you think is the missed opportunity here?
C
And just, just to like put that in perspective, right? Like you can't draw a conclusion without like thinking about flexibility, right? So like their analysis is basically like there's no room on the grid, we're going to talk about flexibility in a later report. And therefore 40 gigawatts of off grid data centers and that's just not the right methodology. The right methodology is there isn't currently headroom on the grid based on their calculation methodology. If you account for flexibility, there's a lot of headroom and therefore there's no need to build 40 gigawatts of off grid data centers that we can't build anyway. And so missing the flexibility analysis of that is one of the critical flaws of the report.
B
Make the case for why you think in the next three years load flexibility is the prominent solution, is the only way to bring many of these data centers online.
C
It's the only thing we can do at scale, right. I guess is basically my argument, right? And so again, right, if you look at the supply chain situation, if you look at the workforce situation and you look at the demand side of this, again, 100 gigawatts of net new capacity to serve data centers and hyperscalers. We can't build it, right? So the option we have is we can use the stuff that we've already built more efficiently. That's it Right now if you think about this over a 5, 10, 15 year trajectory, I am really optimistic about a lot of new technologies that are coming online and the ability to build these data centers faster and better and engineer new solutions. And I think there's a huge role for advanced power electronics and solid state transformers and SMRs and advanced geothermal and all these types of things. But in the next three to five years, the thing we have is the grid we've already built. That's it. Again, I Think when you look at this practically, that is the thing that we can ramp fast and that we can scale quickly. And that is, by the way, buying time for people that are working on these newer technologies to sort of ramp up and get to scale and then their decade will be 2030 to 2040. But in the next three to five years, what we have is what we've built already. And the only way we're going to get more net new capacity is if we use our existing infrastructure better.
B
What do you make of. I think one other argument the report makes is that we see the declining marginal ELCC for batteries. So as more storage gets deployed, it reduces the incremental value of new capacity. How much of a limiter is that for batteries as a solution?
D
I think you have to think about the trajectory here. Right. Batteries came down in cost 27% last year. You know what didn't come down in cost 27% last year? Natural Gas Solutions. Those went up by 27% last year. Right. And so will the ELCC go down for short term batteries, let's say two hour batteries or four hour batteries? Yes, because it's working so well that like they're taking out all of the two hour and four hour events such that now the events are five hours or six hours or seven hours. Right. So there's two ways of doing that. One is just derate the batteries. So a one megawatt battery for four hours is the same thing as a 500 kilowatt battery for eight hours. Right. You could just derate it and call it 500 kilowatts. Right. Or you can actually now build a one megawatt battery that's eight hours. But guess what, the costs have gone down by 50% because the cost trajectory of batteries keeps coming down in costs. Right. But the other piece of it that I think people don't understand is that a natural gas generator only has a few revenue streams that they can access, Whereas batteries have 5 revenue streams they can access. Right. It's not just the capacity payment that you get from these tags that are being paid by the transmission system operator like in the pjm, but you also have the rating of your building as it relates to retail choice. Right. And so if you can reduce your peak load that your building is showing on the 5 CP market or some of those things, you get paid for that. If you can buy low and sell high. Right. Then you can get paid for that. If you can offer your battery into the ancillary services market, you can get paid for that. If the utility needs to upgrade the distribution circuit and instead would like to pay you to use your battery flexibly to be able to, you know, push off that investment. You can get paid for that, right? So there's all these other reasons. And so everyone's like, well, the ELCC is going down, okay, but these other four revenue streams have nothing to do with the lcc. Those other four revenue streams have other reasons why people are paying you for those things. Right? And so the thing that bothers me the most about where we are in the quality of our discourse is I feel like on this side of the tech bro world, we're not making enough progress. Right? I think that, like you would think that those people are educatable, but I feel like after 15 months of trying, they have something that they're pushing and they don't want to learn. That's what I have to conclude. Now, the good thing is that the people who run the grid in Texas and Oklahoma and Utah and New Jersey and other places, they do want to learn because they actually have a ton of bricks on top of them and they have all this pressure to solve things and they're realizing exactly. What Tim is saying is that I actually have to solve this in the next rate case. I can't wait for 2031 and 2032, which is when the PJM is expecting most of their natural gas assets to come online. They have to solve it now. They need headroom now because there's a snow crete event like we had in January. There's a heat dome event like we had last week, right? And so they need to make sure that they restore the reserve capacity now in the face of all of this pressure from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to say yes to the data centers, right? And so even the FERC is now saying, do whatever you need to do, but get it done. Right? Do behind the meter gas, do like batteries. Do it. Just do it, right? And they're even like saying, do grid enhancing technologies do advanced conductors? All these things that, like, were out of favor last year, but we have liftoff reports for magically have become in favor. Why? Because the supply chains exist. And the only thing that was holding us back was utility intransigence. And now utility intransigence has no place in where we are in the physical grid. And so even the utilities are like, damn it, I didn't want to do this because I hate you, jigger, but we're going to do it anyway because I have no other fricking choice.
C
Load flexibility is not Easy, Right. And so the difference between load flexibility and behind the meter off grid islanded data centers is one load flexibility is exceptionally hard and the other is impossible. Right. Like just not going to happen. And on the behind the meter generation side of things, like the constraints are physical infrastructure and workforce, on the load flexibility side of things, the constraints are software and market operations. Right. And so again, I think that if we're really going to add 100 gigawatts of net new load to the grid over the next three to five years, we definitely need to have evolution in terms of how we operate the grid. That's happening in PJM right now, it's happening at ERCOT right now, it's happening in KAISO right now. Every market is going through some semblance of reform to try to figure this out. And then you also need software, Right? And you guys have talked many, many times on this podcast about how utilities don't necessarily have the functionality on the distribution system that's required to operate the grid in the optimal way. Right. And the difference is we have aligned incentives on the market operations side, generally speaking. And there are a lot of nuances. The regulators, bipartisan, Right, the regulators and the utilities and our industry and the hyperscalers are all on the same page in terms of load flexibility. And so again, it's going to be hard and we're going to have to work out a lot of nuances and a lot of different regulations are going to have to get changed. But incentives are aligned and we're already moving towards a better environment from a market operations side to accommodate load flexibility. And then again, on the software side of things, this has already been solved. Right. So you go to the UK and Octopus runs essentially dso. They essentially run a distribution system operator in the uk. They have the software to do it. They know how to manage all these loads with pinpoint accuracy. There's a bunch of other companies that are doing this. So on the load flexibility side of things, we need some regulatory reform, we need some market operations evolution for sure. And we need to make sure that we're incorporating the right software. But those things exist and we can create those in the next 12 to 24 months. What we can't do is build 100,000 master electricians.
B
That's sort of map out an ideal scenario over the next three years. Where's the highest value application for batteries? Where do you see batteries having the most contribution to the system?
C
Everywhere you can put them. My general view on batteries is we need to connect batteries everywhere we can put Them as quickly as humanly possible, possible. And so again, I think one of the problems we have with utility scale batteries, which again is 90% of the market today, is they're stuck in the same transmission queues as the large load. So most utility scale battery systems are connected to the transmission system. So depending on what analysis you look at, right, on average in PJM it's a 6 year wait time to interconnect new utility scale battery system. I think in Kaiso it's like approaching nine years. Even in ercot it's north of four years. So utility scale stuff, again, there's a lot of stuff already in the queue, but net new utility scale batteries, it's just a race to try to find interconnection slots. And I do think like people will find creative ways to get around that, but you know, that's not where the majority of net new is. So then basically the alternative to that is the distribution system. And there are a lot of different ways to connect batteries to the distribution system. Right. You could do them at homes, you could do them at businesses, and you could do them at community scale. And I think like everything in the electricity sector, right, every utility and every market and every state is going to have a little bit different preference in terms of how batteries get deployed. But the overarching goal should be deploy as many batteries as we possibly can on the distribution system over the next three to five years. That will result in us having the most load flexibility possible, which then allows us to connect more large loads faster.
D
So obviously agree with Tim. I'd say it a slightly different way, which is that I think that the data centers need to earn the trust of the communities that they're going into. Otherwise the governors are going to pass moratorium, in my opinion, in every single state. And what the Octopus Energy's nonprofit, the center for Net Zero, found was one of the ways to earn their trust is to give them free stuff.
B
Yeah, yeah, we talked about that last week. I think that's a really interesting finding.
D
And so what I'm very concerned about is that we put all the batteries at industrial sites and other places where you can put 1 megawatt batteries. And we don't focus on figuring out how to give people residential home batteries because that would then, you know, like, you know, we talked without naming him, you know, about Lorenzo Christophe's paper at Kaiso and he calls it Designing the Grid from the Community Up. Right. And so I hope that we make sure that these batteries go into churches, they go into food banks, they go into FEMA emergency centers, they go into schools, they go into this long tail of places where we were supposed to serve them with the Greenhouse Gas Reduction fund or the Solar for All money. But a lot of them have not received a lot of these benefits. And so I hope that while we're on this journey, the batteries go to those people who provide that essential resiliency service for the community, and not just to large industrial loads, I guess, before we move on.
C
Right. Jaeger actually just posted an incredible tribute to Lorenzo Christoph on his substack, which I would encourage everyone to read, but it's like it was a reminder for me, right, that we all stand on the shoulders of giants, right? And so again, the reason we're in this position as an industry isn't because, like, we just made it up in the last 12 months, right? This has been, you know, an effort that's happened over decades. And Lorenzo is like one of the founding fathers of this stuff. And everyone who's good at this today has read his papers and been inspired by him. And so, you know, Jigger wrote this nice tribute to him the other day, and I would highly encourage everyone to read it because we wouldn't be here without his brilliance.
B
We'll throw it in the links in the show notes. Nice. Well, to wrap this up, I think we should turn to this Rhodium group analysis. This framework they developed that asks a very different question entirely, which is, does the choice actually move the energy transition forward? We're not just talking about speed, how fast the power gets built, it's what's the actual impact? And so they develop this transition acceleration framework that scores different ways of powering a data center on a single scale. So grid connection paired with clean firm power scores the highest, permanent off grid gas scores the lowest. This is not neutral. This is actively working against the transition in their model. This gets us back to the philosophical divide that we touched on at the start of the show. I think the purpose of this show, the three of us are thinking about how these choices about how we power data centers accelerate enable clean solutions. And this can get overshadowed by the speed only believers who don't really think decarbonization utilization should be much of a factor, or they're not thinking about it. So let's comment on this framework first. Jigger, what are the spectrum of best and worst options according to Rhodium?
D
So when I read the paper, I was so disappointed because this is a 2023 conversation. It literally has no place in today's conversation. I think that what they were trying to say is that if you were to fully decarbonize the grid using the bulk power system only, and you don't look at grid flexibility and you don't look at grid enhancing technologies, and you don't look at figuring out how to get more out of the grid we've already paid for, but you just focus on generation that is matched with the load, then here is how we rack and stack all of these options for, you know, meeting that load, right? So for instance, now the baseline is just plugging into the grid, right? No upgrades, no nothing. Just plugging into the grid. That's zero. But weirdly, like if you just buy racks from across the country without hourly matching, you get a 0.2 score. I was like, oh, that's interesting. I thought we were supposed to hate Rex these days. And then you know when you look at like Google's project with Sheldon Kimber that has a 3.4 score, right? And then if you look at off grid, they're assuming that even as a bridge solution it would take seven years for it to bridge to the grid, which I have never seen in any of the projects that I'm looking at. So I feel like I don't understand why you would pick seven years as the number when most people I'm looking at are looking at a bridge of six months, eight months, maybe a year. And so I just think that in general, one of the things that disappointed me so much about this paper was it basically was pitting affordability versus climate, which I thought we were past that, but we're back right into the milu.
B
What was your reaction, Tim? I mean, this doesn't factor in the DER flexibility model we've been talking about. Do you feel like that's a blind spot?
C
Yeah, for sure, right? I mean, look, I think the conclusion of the analysis is directionally correct, right? Which is grid connected data centers are better for society and the energy transition than permanent off grid data centers. The calculation methodology, you can definitely nitpick and I agree with most of the points Shigar made, right, that there was a lot of stuff that wasn't accounted for in the analysis. But I think the outcomes are directionally correct. But look, I think this is like the big takeaway for hyperscalers and policymakers and regulators and everyone who thinks about this is this debate between on site power and the grid is not really the right debate. Right. It's is a data center going to be part of the system or is the data center going to be an island that sits in isolation. And look, I think the important thing about this is if we do this the right way, data centers can be part of the system in a way that benefits everyone, right? So we can lower electricity rates, we can make the electric grid more reliable, more affordable and cleaner because the hyperscalers are coming in and paying a lot of money for us to do that. Right? And so, in essence, we've created this environment where hyperscalers are essentially subsidizing the rebuilding of the American electric grid. And that's the potential of what we have in front of us. And so I think if we take advantage of that opportunity and we execute at a really, really high level over the next three to five years, the outcome of this has the potential to be really, really good for everyone. Not just the hyperscalers, but all the ratepayers on the grid as well. And I think directionally, that's what this analysis shows, is that on grid, data centers that are part of the solution, whether they have on site generation or not is not really the debate. It's whether they're connected to the system and they're members of the community, or whether they're not. And folks that are members of the community or part of the grid or part of the system, if they do that the right way, have an opportunity to make it better for everyone. And that's the future I'm hoping to be a part of.
B
Just to flag one other critique, your colleague, your former colleague at Scale and friend Duncan Campbell made an argument on X. This is very similar to what Jigger has been talking about related to how we're going to utilize all this behind the meter gas. And he basically said that most of these behind the meter systems, these data centers will get a grid connection as soon as they can. And then that's just a bunch of gas capacity that gets privately funded, acting as low capacity peakers that are helpful in managing high variable energy grids. And so if a data center gets connected immediately, you kind of push coal and gas up the merit order to serve that facility. But if you have all this behind the meter gas, then you can utilize it to manage a high variable energy grid. So are they missing that this behind the meter gas can actually be a transition enabler?
C
Yeah. Well, first of all, I guess I'm glad you reminded me about Duncan. For those of you who are interested in this topic, Durvos is September 18, one month before the Flex Summit that's hosted by Latitude Media. So we got a big conference season coming up to talk about all of this in the fall. But look, yeah, I think Duncan's point is correct. Which is again, if you build on site generation, specifically reciprocating engines or gas turbines on site and you use that as a bridge and you do that in the right way, those assets can be essentially peaker plants for the grid once a grid connection is available. And that's part of a load flexibility strategy. And so again, I think if you, you know, the way Duncan thinks about this, and I don't want to put words in his mouth, but the way Duncan generally thinks about this is load flexibility is what we need to achieve. And so therefore building on site generation, that can be a short term bridge, but also part of a bigger system in the long run can be done right. Now, again, the argument against that is not that scale can't do that or Crusoe can't do that or intersect can't do that. It's just that there aren't 40 gigawatts of those folks out there who know how to do that. But yeah, I think the model a lot of these companies are pioneering where they're using natural gas as a bridge to grid interconnection and then after the grid interconnection, they're using gas as a flexibility asset is a point that has real merit, and I think jiggers made that point a bunch of times before is like, natural gas is going to be part of this equation for a long time. Right. From a climate perspective, we're trying to ramp down not the capacity of gas we deploy, right. But the capacity factor of those gas generators over time in order to decarbonize. But yeah, I think, I think projects like that can definitely be a big part of the solution. I think some of the best firms in the world are working on them.
D
Well, we're going to need capacity on the grid in the same way that China is building new coal plants and then designing them to run flexibly and is reducing the capacity factor of how often they run such that they believe that they've hit peak coal in terms of terawatt hours, right? So like paying for capacity is not a problem for me. The thing that disappoints me the most about this report from Rhodium is that in this moment, the people that we need to inform are governors. And I don't know what a governor is supposed to take from this report, right? You look at this report and they're like, is this actually helping me with affordability or not? Is this helping me with speed to power or not like it doesn't really address any of these issues, which is why it was so disappointing to me because it's basically a 2023 report. It's sort of like if you want to decarbonize the grid faster, here's how you do it and here's what's the most useful. So I find that valuable and I'm going to put it on the shelf and reread it when there's an administration and a bunch of decision makers that care about this topic. But right now, with 36 governors running for election right now, every one of them hates data centers and hates their electric utility company. Right. And I don't know how this report actually informs what stuff they should be doing to get elected and to keep
C
rates down on that point. Right. Maybe I can use my opportunity to appear on open circuit to ask a question. Right? I mean, jigger, like one of the things I'm really interested in is there are a lot of governors who are hyper focused on this issue right now. A lot of them have different approaches to how they're talking to industry, how they're talking to utilities, that type of stuff. Do you think there's a particular model in a particular state that's really good right now or is everyone trying to figure it out?
D
Well, obviously, you know, our friend Arushi Sharma Frank has been doing extraordinary work in Texas with, you know, batch 0 and PGGR and some of that stuff. So I think, I think that stuff's great. But I think that like, fundamentally what the governors have to prove to their voters is that they're actually protecting their voters. Right? The voters are never going to understand all this nuance that we're talking about here. They're just like, is someone looking out for me? Is someone making sure that a billionaire or now a trillionaire is not taking advantage of me? Right. And as you suggested, Tim, if you wanted to get full unlock of demand flexibility, that requires new software to get deployed, it requires new cultural norms within the electric utility, it requires the regulators to do things differently than they've done before. Right? And so like, if they're going to force that onto people, they want to know it's going to work. That's real political, you know, like chips that they have to spend to get that done. Right? So like you see in Georgia, for instance, they're mandatory. They're mandating that they implement a derms platform. Right? Because they're saying we need to have demand flexibility. Unless you have a derm software platform installed, you can't do this right. In New York, they're mandating that, you know, National Grid hire Grid Care, who then magically found 650 megawatts of underused capacity that National Grid New York didn't know was there. Right. And so like, you know, like when I, we were at a previous episode of Open Circuit, I asked like, would all168 utilities hire someone like Grid Care by the end of this year? And I think the answer was like, I'm not sure, but unlikely. That's ridiculous. Right? Like, if you could like just use software for 26 minutes and find 650 megawatts of unused capacity in the grid, every governor should force their utility to hire one of those six companies and find their underutilized capacity tomorrow. Right. And so I think that all of these individual best practices are being lifted for the governors to read and learn about. But I don't think there's one place, unfortunately, that's done it exactly right.
B
Cool.
C
So one follow up so I can get my money's worth here.
B
Yeah, get in here.
C
All right, so. So we're talking today. I think I read last night that Governor Hockel in New York became the first governor to sign a formal data center moratorium, which I think is for one year. Like, how big a deal? Like, Steven, I know I learned so much about this stuff from you, but like, how big of a trend do you think that's going to be? Like, do you think data center moratoriums are going to be a real thing, or do you think the governors see the opportunity to create a better system for everyone?
B
I think that they're feeling immense amount of pressure and we'll probably see more moratoriums. I don't think it'll spread to every state like Jigger suggested earlier in the show. To me, this still tracks like fracking, where we saw some states limit or ban fracking, but ultimately the industry moved forward relatively unabated. And I just have a feeling that that's how this data center story is going to go. Governors are under pressure, but they're also under pressure to bring in economic activity. And I think many of them still privately really like this data center activity, even if their voters are really angry about it.
D
One small thing is I think it's Moratoria.
B
Moratoria. Yes, you're right. Here I am. I'm the editor. Thank you.
C
Learn something new every day.
B
Editor needs.
D
Exactly. But I also think that one of the big challenges I see is that the utility companies, when they're filing for their 15% rate increases are deliberately blaming the data centers for those rate increases. And so this notion that we have report after report after report that says data centers are not raising rates, data centers in fact have lowered rates like four years ago or whatever it is like that is undermined by every single quarterly conference call and every single integrated resource plan that the utilities are filing right now saying we need a 15% rate increase because of data center load growth. And so I just think that like that's what voters hear. They hear my bills are going up 15% because of data center load growth. Right. Because that's what the utilities are telling them.
A
The other.
B
I mean the thing that's fueling this politically is this question about whether these data centers are being used to build something that benefits people. Right. Like you can make a case that with fracking we're going to have cheap energy and we're going to become more energy independent. And it's a really clear story. I don't think the story is very clear on the benefits of AI. Even though I am a big believer in the medium and long term economic potential. I think that that story is pretty negative for most people. And we've just heard the last two years of tech executives and AI labs saying they're going to automate your job away. Half of the white collar workforce is going to go away. People are sick of slop. I think the politics of this are a little bit different or a lot different than fracking because there's no clear story for the economic benefit this is going to bring. So that to me is the big gray about how this is going to play out politically.
C
What a time to be alive.
B
Yeah.
D
I also don't think an 80 year old president's a very good articulator of the benefits of AI.
B
No, but Tim was AI for lowering the cost of battery of commercial storage. I love it. This is what I have most, the most hope in.
C
No, the one takeaway from this is that's definitely a potential outcome.
B
Right.
C
There is a way that we can use load growth to fuel the next generation of electrical infrastructure. I'm 100% confident in that. And like incentives are aligned, it's just an execution game. So we got a lot of work to do as an industry, but I think we're in the best place we've ever been for what we do. And so thank you guys so much for having me. This has been a blast.
B
Yeah. So glad to have you on the show. Tim Haid is an SVP at Voltus. Really good to see you, my friend.
C
Good to see you all too. Thank you.
B
Jigger Shah is my regular co host and the co Managing Partner at Multiplier. Thanks Trigger.
D
Of course.
B
And before you go, make sure to subscribe on YouTube. A huge amount of our new viewers on YouTube do not actually subscribe to Latitude Media. So we've got a ton of you watching these conversations now. But if you want to head over to Latitude Media's YouTube page, you can watch episodes of Catalyst. You can see all our back catalog episodes. The show is edited by me, Sean Marquand, Ann Bailey. You can find our audio episodes on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts and transcripts@latitudemedia.com thanks so much for being here. We'll catch you next week.
Podcast by Latitude Media | July 17, 2026
In this episode, three industry veterans—host Stephen Lacy, co-host Jigar Shah, and guest Tim Hade (Voltus, formerly Brightfield AI)—dissect the debate around powering new data centers: Should these huge loads go off-grid (typically with gas generation), or stay connected, leveraging batteries and load flexibility for the broader grid's benefit? As AI and digital infrastructure push electricity demand to new heights, their spirited conversation demystifies energy market projections, the true scalability of behind-the-meter power, and the technical/economic tradeoffs facing policymakers and industry alike.
“Some see them as an emissions nightmare. Others see them as a historic opportunity to leverage clean resources... One of the more interesting divides is over off-grid versus grid connected data centers.”
— Stephen Lacy [02:10]
“Reducing energy costs has gone from being a vitamin to a painkiller… Now it’s an absolute necessity.”
— Tim Hade [11:01]
“The soft costs are too damn high.”
— Jigar Shah [09:15]
Skepticism Abounds:
“You are making supply chain tighter. Everything is going up in price because of you… The level of selfishness… is just shocking to me.”
— Jigar Shah [15:32]
“It’s a science experiment, a first of a kind project. Maybe it’ll work, maybe it won’t. But if you’re a hyperscaler trying to find a scalable model… what they’re going to find in practice is that these things are really, really, really difficult.”
— Tim Hade [23:57]
“Everyone has access to Claude and anyone who wants to can produce a report… They don’t make a compelling argument for how you’re going to build 40 gigawatts of off-grid data centers in the next 18 months.”
— Tim Hade [27:37], [30:04]
“You can’t draw a conclusion without thinking about flexibility… That’s one of the critical flaws of the report.”
— Tim Hade [38:22]
“The next three to five years is about load flexibility, and that’s going to be the driver… Everything else is kind of a distraction.”
— Tim Hade [31:04]
“It’s the only thing we can do at scale… What we have is the grid we’ve already built.”
— Tim Hade [39:15]
“Batteries came down in cost 27% last year… You know what didn’t? Natural gas solutions. Those went up by 27%.”
— Jigar Shah [41:06]
“My bills are going up 15% because of data center load growth… That’s what the utilities are telling them.”
— Jigar Shah [66:19]
“I’m 100% confident... There is a way that we can use load growth to fuel the next generation of electrical infrastructure... It’s just an execution game.”
— Tim Hade [67:38]
Far from a technical sideshow, the debate around off-grid vs. grid-connected data centers cuts to the heart of the energy transition’s next chapter. Despite dramatic headlines and market speculation, building out 40+ GW of isolated power for data centers is not just physically implausible—it’s a distraction from the real work of orchestrating load flexibility and deploying distributed storage at scale. The real opportunity lies in leveraging AI, aggregation, and aligned policy to turn surging demand into investments that benefit the entire grid—and society.
The episode ends on a note of both realism and optimism: The tools and tech are here, incentives between utilities and hyperscalers are aligning, and the next three to five years, if navigated well, could transform both the grid and American industry for the better.
For more insights, see episode show notes for references to Rhodium, Semianalysis, and tributes to grid innovation leaders like Lorenzo Kristov.