Open Circuit: The Year's Twists, Villains, and Breakout Stars in Energy (Dec 12, 2025)

Podcast: Open Circuit
Host: Latitude Media (Stephen Lacy)
Guests/Co-Hosts: Jigar Shah, Kathryn Hamilton
Episode Theme: A reflective and opinionated retrospective on the most unexpected events, villains, breakout innovations, and overlooked narratives in the energy transition of 2025, with predictions looking toward 2030.

Episode Overview

In this year-end special, Stephen, Jigar, and Kathryn revisit their best (and worst) predictions from 2025, defend or disown past statements, and hand out “awards” for the year’s biggest plot twists, breakout stars, leading villains, and underrated stories in the global energy transition. The group also stakes reputational bets on how the energy industry will look in 2030.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Revisiting the Year’s Predictions (09:14–27:15)

Defending or Disowning 2025 Predictions (09:14 onwards)

• On U.S. Manufacturing Policy and Trade Wars

  • Jigar stands by his skepticism of reindustrialization amid policy upheaval:

    "In general, the rules by which you get paid back for manufacturing here in the United States have still not been clarified by the administration... it's really hard to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into a new manufacturing facility right now."
    (10:45–11:34, Jigar Shah)

  • Trump’s tariff regime is seen as a fog of uncertainty, unlikely to be remembered if rolled back quickly.

• European Clean Energy Investment Migration

  • Kathryn affirms that many EU companies are now preferring Europe over a policy-unstable U.S.:

    "The policies are more favorable right now... a lot of this has to do with two things. Policies and then also just uncertainty of what's happening... maybe some states will be luring companies back."
    (13:00–13:46, Kathryn Hamilton)

• On the “Best Climate President”

  • Jigar (somewhat tongue in cheek) asserts the current president, through inducing crisis, has compelled true market commitment:

    "He's not a good climate president in the sense that he believes in climate change, but in terms of like capital formation... he's shaken everybody and forced them to, like, look at their priors and then recommit to this moment."
    (16:00–17:08, Jigar Shah)

• Congressional Hypocrisy and Energy Legislation

  • Kathryn hopes midterms will provide accountability for politicians voting against clean energy, highlighting the gap between rhetoric and action.
    (18:42–19:11, Kathryn Hamilton)
  • Jigar criticizes the clean energy industry’s lack of political “teeth”:

    "When someone wrongs you... you find the most right wing Nazi you can find in their district and you give them $100,000 to primary them... you embarrass the crap out of them."
    (19:17–20:23, Jigar Shah)

• Residential Solar’s Value Proposition

  • Jigar doubles down on his call for solar industry reform—cost cuts, better utility alignment, and integrating batteries:

    "People should not be fleeced at $4 a watt... if you're being asked to pay $4 a watt for solar, please go tell them to go take a hike and find somebody who will install it for $2 a watt."
    (21:44–22:53, Jigar Shah)

  • He argues the future is solar + storage:

    "The solar industry is the one who should be leading on that... they are no longer the solar industry, they are now the battery industry."
    (23:26–24:53, Jigar Shah)

• Impact of Government Layoffs

  • Kathryn laments the attrition of key civil servants, resulting in lost expertise and slowing progress:

    "It just stopped everything in its tracks because all the people who made the trains run had been kicked off the train... There's just so much talent out there and those folks are trying to pick up the slack..."
    (26:11–27:15, Kathryn Hamilton)

• Jigar on Unseen Risks:

  • "When you think about what it takes to take an executive order... and then actually turn it into something that sends a signal to investors... that last part is not happening."
    (27:39–28:32, Jigar Shah)

2. Year-End Awards: Recognizing Leaders, Laggards, and Unheralded Stories

(33:02–67:22)

Biggest Plot Twist

• Solar Is Not Dead — Surging Globally (33:32, Kathryn)

  • Solar and renewables outpace coal globally for the first time. U.S. solar deployments hit record highs despite market fears.

    "Unlike the parrot in Monty Python, solar is not dead yet." (33:32, Kathryn Hamilton)

• Data Centers Demand “Flexible” Grid Connections (35:28, Jigar)

  • Jigar highlights Chris Wright’s letter to FERC on fast interconnection for flexible data centers as a surprising and bipartisan policy shift supporting grid modernization.

• End of “Net-Zero” & ESG Era (37:04, Stephen)

  • Stephen marks 2025 as the crystallization of corporations and finance sectors retreating from aspirational climate commitments, in favor of hard-nosed risk management and profit.

Breakout Star of the Year

• Closed-Loop Geothermal Projects (40:03, Kathryn)

  • Kathryn nominates Evergeothermal’s closed-loop system in Germany:

    "It's really exciting. It's something that has been behind on some... but I also think that this has a whole lot of use cases and, and the heat use case to me is super interesting..."
    (40:03–41:37, Kathryn Hamilton)

• Xcel Minnesota’s Distributed Capacity Procurement (43:12, Jigar)

  • Jigar spotlights Xcel’s formal inclusion of distributed resources at scale, a utility first.

• Transformers: Infrastructure’s Unsung Hero (47:45, Stephen)

  • Stephen argues that transformer shortages, price spikes, and new entrants like Heron Power have propelled the device to the center of energy commentary:

    "Transformers went from background equipment to the center of the story this year..."
    (47:45, Stephen Lacy)

Villain of the Year

• Politically Inept Data Centers (48:47, Jigar)

  • Massive backlash against data centers in local and state politics due to secretive development and negative impacts on the grid.

    "I haven't met an organization so politically inept. They've had two gubernatorial races that were basically defined by everyone in the state hating data centers..."
    (48:47–49:40, Jigar Shah)

• Oil & Gas Industry (53:33, Kathryn)

  • Systematic lobbying, campaign funding, and legislative influence called out. Funding of Project 2025 blueprint held up as emblematic of their “villainy.”

    "They have raised hundreds of millions of dollars to buy our politicians... [they] fund the Heritage Foundation, which wrote Project 2025..."
    (53:33–53:49, Kathryn Hamilton)

• “Uncertainty” as Supervillain (54:18, Stephen)

  • Stephen points to policy and market whiplash which led to the cancellation of hundreds of GW of projects in 2025 alone:

    "It has to be uncertainty itself. It was one of the most disruptive forces of the year... capital hates ambiguity more than it hates risk."
    (54:18–55:56, Stephen Lacy)

  • Jigar pushes back, arguing the blame should fall on the “person behind uncertainty,” i.e., political leadership.

Most Underrated Story

• Magnets and Rare Earths (57:39, Kathryn)

  • Central but underreported role of magnets and China’s control over rare earth supply for energy technologies identified as a looming supply chain issue.

• 90% Cost Reduction in Project Development via AI (59:58, Jigar)

  • Regional solar and battery developers now leveraging agentic AI to cut development costs dramatically, enabling more projects at smaller grid nodes.

    "Using agentic AI to reduce the cost of developing battery and solar projects by 90%."
    (59:58–60:41, Jigar Shah)

  • However, debates remain over whether AI’s net impact is positive or negative for the planet.

• End of Shared Reality (63:31, Stephen)

  • Merging of COVID/climate skepticism, dominance of misinformation on YouTube/podcasts, and AI-generated content undermining trust in consensus facts:

    "...these platforms in particular Facebook have been highly influential on a lot of the local opposition that has gained strength... the rise of AI generated content ... is teaching people to completely distrust anything that they see."
    (63:31–66:41, Stephen Lacy)

3. Bold Predictions for 2030 (68:13–74:02)

• Universal EV Charging

  • Kathryn: “In five years we’ll have charging stations everywhere... once you get [an EV], you never go back.”
    (68:33–71:16, Kathryn Hamilton)

• All New Global Power Growth = Clean Energy

  • Jigar: “Over the next five years, 100% of all new capacity globally will come from solar, wind, geothermal, [and] nuclear.”
    (71:31–72:46, Jigar Shah)

• Trade Jobs Become the New Coding Jobs

  • Stephen: “By 2030, jobs in the trades... will be as coveted as coding jobs were in the 2010s. The 2030s are going to be about learning to build.”
    (72:46–73:53, Stephen Lacy)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Jigar on Accountability (19:17):

  "When someone wrongs you... you embarrass the crap out of them. And then the next time you see them, you say, 'Hey, next time you wrong our industry, I'm going to do that again.' And so like, don't do it again."

• Kathryn on Solar’s Not-Dead Status (33:32):

  "Unlike the parrot in Monty Python, solar is not dead yet."

• Stephen on “Uncertainty” (55:56):

  "It has to be uncertainty itself. It was one of the most disruptive forces of the year..."

• Jigar on AI’s Double-Edged Sword (61:53):

  "On net, is AI good or bad for the planet? And I still believe for sure 100x it's bad for the planet from a resource perspective, et cetera. Like, does it do some good things on the side? Sure."

• Stephen on End of Shared Reality (66:41):

  "We can create our own, own hyper customized versions of reality for ourselves. And then we also don't trust what others are saying. So I just feel like those three elements came together in a way that created a turning point in 2025."

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [09:14–27:15] Revisiting predictions and controversial takes
• [33:02–38:49] Plot twists of the year
• [40:03–47:55] Breakout stars of the year
• [48:47–57:29] Villains of the year
• [57:39–66:41] Most underrated/overlooked stories
• [68:13–74:02] Predictions and bets for 2030

Tone & Flow

• The conversation is irreverent but incisive—mixing data, personal experience, sharp political commentary, and wry humor ("solar is not dead yet," "data centers are villains," etc.). The hosts routinely reference their own networks and frontline experiences developing and lobbying for clean energy.

Summary Verdict

This episode of Open Circuit serves as a dynamic and thought-provoking recap of the wild energy year of 2025, providing both a heat check for the industry’s most debated twists and crises, and optimistic bets for where the sector's headed by 2030. Through honest (sometimes savage) self-reflection and sharp industry analysis, Kathryn, Jigar, and Stephen chart what to watch next as energy policy and infrastructure debates grow ever more central to economic, technological, and social futures.