Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry – Episode 65 Title: Pre-owned Prices Rise. Sort of. – Plus, Patek Philippe Lowers Prices
Hosts: Asher Rapkin & Gabe Reilly (Collective Horology)
Date: January 26, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Asher and Gabe dive deep into recent pricing trends in the luxury watch industry, with a focus on Patek Philippe’s surprising price reductions in the US, secondary market shifts, the ripple effects of tariffs and currency volatility, and Omega’s recent moves upmarket. They also answer listener questions on collecting, business strategy, and their own watch-buying habits. The tone remains candid, witty, and consumer-centric—true to the pod’s “no hype, no sponsored takes” reputation.

Key Discussion Points

1. Patek Philippe’s Price Reductions – What’s Happening and Why?

[01:31 – 13:05]

• Breaking News: Patek Philippe announced plans to roll back US retail prices by up to 8%—a rare move for such a prestigious brand.
• Causes:
  • Price increases in 2025 were driven by a volatile Swiss franc and a 39% US tariff (now reduced to 15%) on imported Swiss goods.
  • Tariff impact on MSRP is less direct than it seems because tariffs are assessed on import cost, not retail price.
  • Previous price hikes were partly offset by dealers and brands sacrificing margins to avoid passing full costs to consumers.
• Host Perspective:
  • Asher: "Patek Philippe lowers prices is a headline that nobody expected." [12:55]
  • The price rollback creates challenges for retailers in the interim, as consumers hold off purchases until lower prices kick in (Feb 1).
  • Gabe: "The sale in February round to a halt." [05:28]
• Volatility in the Trade Environment:
  • The uncertainty of tariffs and currency changes make aggressive pricing moves risky.
  • Asher: "We still live in an extremely volatile trade environment." [06:48]
  • Political decisions (like sudden tariffs or shifts in policy) have knock-on effects throughout global markets—including watch pricing.
• US vs. Global:
  • While Patek is lowering US prices, they're simultaneously raising them by about 4% in other markets—a more typical increase in line with broader inflation.
• Brand Strategy Comparison:
  • Rolex took a more measured approach to tariffs, halting imports until rates stabilized, and now raises prices moderately to "play catch up."
  • Patek was more reactive, moving prices up and now partially rolling back.

Notable Quotes

• On Volatility & Market Strategy:
  • Asher: "Patek is making a really interesting bet here... moving their watches in some degree to that lobster-style market pricing." [07:54]
  • Gabe: "One of the things that just bums me out is when I see this happen and people say, 'Well, Patek is giving us some reduction and some relief, why isn’t everyone else doing it?' They’re greedy. That’s not the case. It's more nuanced than that." [12:12]

2. Secondary Market Update: Prices Rise, But Context Matters

[13:05 – 28:25]

• Listener Question: Will tariffs make existing pre-owned watches more valuable?
• 2025 in Review:
  • Pre-owned market rose 4.9% overall, per WatchCharts and Morgan Stanley data.
  • Increases are almost entirely driven by Patek, Rolex, and Audemars Piguet (AP).
  • Most other brands and references saw continued depreciation, not gains.
• Value Retention:
  • Despite the uptick, the gap between new and pre-owned values is widening—MSRP increases (sometimes double-digit) outpaced the used market rebound.
    • Example: Patek 5196P (platinum Calatrava) retailed at ~$42k, now trades at ~$31k pre-owned, despite discontinued status. [18:29]
    • Hype models (Aquanaut, Nautilus) buck the trend, trading at or above retail, but are exceptions.
• Secondary Market Realities:
  • For most models (even from top brands), depreciation on purchase remains significant, and the "market is up" headline can be misleading.
  • Gabe: "Overall, the used market is losing ground in terms of value retention to the new market." [25:15]
• Broader Implications:
  • Tariffs and currency swings have distorted normal value dynamics.
  • Asher: "The chasm between what you pay for something new and the depreciation when you drive it off the proverbial lot is so much bigger." [22:22]

Notable Quote

• On Market Headlines:
  • Gabe: "Headlines matter. And so the headline out of this is, oh, the secondary watch market has stabilized... However, comma, but that's really isolated and driven specifically by three brands." [24:37]

3. Tariffs, Trade, and Manufacturing—Who Really Benefits?

[26:28 – 28:25]

• Trade Rationale Challenged:
  • The stated goal of tariffs (to encourage domestic production) hasn't manifested—Swiss/European brands aren’t relocating manufacturing, only after-sales service.
  • Asher: "Patek Philippe is lowering their prices, but they're not moving their watchmakers here." [27:29]
• Collective View:
  • The current economic volatility has hit collectors, brands, dealers, and even the wider US watch industry workforce—without tangible upside for any group.

4. Omega's Premiumization & the Changing Landscape

[29:17 – 38:00]

• New Releases:
  • Discussion around the new "reverse panda" Speedmasters in Moonshine gold and steel, the luxury reboot of the Planet Ocean.
• Price Creep:
  • Speedmaster now over $10k, Planet Ocean priced to compete directly with Rolex Submariner.
  • Upgrades (lacquer dials, rhodium accents, ceramic bezels) support this upmarket push.
• Distribution Dynamics:
  • For this strategy to work, Omega may need to reduce its large network of retail "doors," as commodity-like distribution depresses prices on the secondary market.
  • Asher: "If you want a production watch, the laws of commodities will come into effect and you'll be able to find it. And price protection just isn't there." [32:50]
• Conspiracy Theory:
  • Gabe wonders if Omega will make the classic Hesalite Speedmaster harder to get (a la the Rolex no-date Sub) to maintain halo and desirability, shifting focus to higher-margin models.

5. Listener Q&A

[38:00 – End (~48:55)]

Q1: Did Hodinkee’s Business of Watches Podcast Going Weekly Influence Openwork?

• Short answer: No; Openwork went weekly for their own strategic and community reasons.

Q2: Would Collective Horology Sell Non-Independents?

• Asher: Not currently, and largely due to philosophy, love of independents, and a desire to avoid "trapdoor" corporate contracts:
  • "Both Gabe and I come from the corporate world...when you’re caught in a contract that has more trapdoors than a Scooby Doo house." [41:39]
• Brand definition fuzziness: Even large brands like Patek and AP are technically independent; the real concern is business ethos, not ownership structure.

Q3: Hosts’ Own Collecting Tastes—Indies vs. Mainstream

• "Risky" Purchases & Budget Mix:
  • Asher and Gabe both enjoy a mix—from Rolex Subs to obscure indies (Ming, Holthinrichs, Garrick).
• Philosophy:
  • Buy what you love, not for investment. Watch collecting is diverse and meant for enjoyment, not speculation.
• Gabe: “I buy watches that I like and I like watches from major manufacturers all the way to super indie manufacturers.” [44:08]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tariff Whiplash:
  • Asher: “We could wake up tomorrow and find out that anyone who doesn’t want to let us own the moon has to pay a 10,000% tariff.” [24:01]
• On Patek’s Strategy:
  • “Patek Philippe is not a brand that’s known for like, value.” – Gabe [09:44]
• On Market Narratives:
  • “It is impossible to do business in this kind of environment because we just don’t know what our cost structure is from day to day.” – Gabe [28:25]
• On Collecting:
  • “Watches are not investments. So we don’t advocate that you think about them like investments.” – Asher [22:22]
• On the Podcast’s Growth:
  • “The audience has grown to the size where it now makes sense and is worth our time.” – Gabe [40:09]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Patek Philippe Price Reductions: 01:31–13:05
• Secondary Market Data & Analysis: 13:05–28:25
• Omega’s Upmarket Pivot & Distribution: 29:17–38:00
• Listener Questions & Hosts’ Watch Philosophies: 38:00–48:55

Summary

This episode demystifies major headlines about watch prices by digging into the complexities beneath the surface. Listeners learn why Patek Philippe’s price reductions are more calculated than generous, why the secondary market’s apparent rebound is limited to only a few brands and is outpaced by new price hikes, and how brands like Omega are tweaking both products and distribution to move upmarket. The hosts maintain their honest, collector-focused voice, insisting that watches should be worn and loved, not "traded as investments," and field thoughtful questions about their own collecting journeys and the state of the business.

For anyone interested in the actual economics—and emotional realities—of buying, selling, or simply loving watches in 2026, this episode is both sobering, insightful, and consistently entertaining.