Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry

Episode 73 – "Rolex Pre-owned Values Slide – Certified Pre-owned to the Rescue?"

Hosts: Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly
Date: March 23, 2026

Episode Overview

This installment of Openwork delves into recent shifts in the pre-owned Rolex market, focusing on declining value retention and the explosive growth of Rolex's Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) program. Hosts Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly examine market data, explore the business motivations behind CPO, and debate whether Rolex’s program is a lifeline—or a case study unique to the brand—amidst a cooling luxury watch market. The conversation also touches on changing dynamics in watch media and the unique power of micro-communities among watch collectors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Changing Landscape of Watch Media and Independent Brands

[00:44–05:52]

• Dominic Renaud’s Watch Launch Case Study
  • Minimal mainstream media coverage, yet huge collector buzz—especially in micro-communities and private groups.
  • Demonstrates how independent brands can succeed in a down market by being inventive, creative, and offering relative value, not just prestige.
    • “These micro communities…collectors that are connected together in these private groups trusting one another's taste is really what is driving so much excitement and trust in independent watches today relative to what we would have seen even three to five years ago.” – Asher [01:09]
  • The success of the Dominic Renaud Pulse 60 (selling out through 2026 allocations) is a "poster child" for indies thriving while the mainstream market cools.

The State of the Rolex Pre-Owned Market

[06:29–16:28]

• Value Retention Trends

  • Only about 35% of Rolex references now trade above retail, down from 45% last year. Value retention (pre-owned price relative to new retail) is shrinking.
    • “Most Rolex pre-owned watches do not trade above retail...the percentage is getting smaller.” – Gabe [06:49]
  • While pre-owned prices rose 4.6% YoY, new retail prices outpaced them with 7–9% hikes for steel models and double digits for gold, tightening the gap.
  • The best-performing models: Daytonas and GMT Masters (well above retail), with OPs (Oyster Perpetuals) now trading around 126% of retail.
    • Notably, Datejusts and Submariners generally retain close to full retail value.
    • Day-Dates, which soared during the COVID era, are now losing 10% on average, partly due to gold price spikes.

• Regional and Vintage Market Differences

  • Value retention is strongest in the US and Japan; in Europe and the UK, pre-owned values are essentially flat against retail.
  • Vintage and neo-vintage Rolexes are seeing rising values, outpacing modern pre-owned models, likely due to supply scarcity and shifting tastes toward smaller, refined watches.

• Contextual Importance

  • Even with tightening margins, Rolex’s value retention is “remarkable compared to any other category for anything.” – Asher [16:28]

Deep Dive: The Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) Program

[16:30–32:49]

• Scale and Business Rationale

  • Rolex CPO’s estimated transaction volume is now between $530M–$594M annually, matching or surpassing sister brand Tudor in scale.
    • “In terms of the value of watches being sold, Rolex's CPO program is now the size of Tudor and it seems like it couldn’t have come soon enough just as the market for Rolex is starting to slide.” – Gabe [07:13]
  • The program is growing rapidly (66% YoY), with the potential to become a $1B business by 2027.

• Profitability and Margins

  • Margins are modest due to increased labor: dealers pay Rolex for authentication, refurbishment, and branding. Most profit accrues to dealers, not the brand.
    • Quote: “Gross revenue is vanity, net profit is business.” – Asher quoting a common business adage [17:29]
  • CPO watches typically command a 22–26% premium over non-certified pre-owned examples, with US premiums at 22% and Europe at nearly 29%.

• Supply Sourcing

  • Inventory for CPO dealers primarily sourced from wholesale secondary market—not from end-customer trade-ins—due to needing scale and speed.
  • This creates intensified dealer competition and upward price pressure in the wholesale sector, effectively supporting higher CPO retail prices.

• A Strategic Learning Channel for Rolex

  • “Clients are subsidizing Rolex's education. Nobody's necessarily getting rich on it per se, but Rolex is getting paid to learn.” – Asher [22:00, and as bookended at 00:00]
  • The program serves as a testbed for developing e-commerce, previously an unknown for the boutique-driven brand.

The CPO Program’s Market Impact and Uniqueness

[32:49–40:22]

• Gravity and Market Dynamics

  • Rolex CPO acts as a “black hole,” absorbing available pre-owned inventory through price and demand gravity.
    • “Available pre owned Rolexes that don't move fast enough for a wholesaler will inevitably end up at CPO. Because the hunger...is so vast and so intense, that...the black hole of the CPO program will be pulling all available matter towards it.” – Asher [33:49]
  • This effectively raises the floor for Rolex pre-owned prices and enhances consumer trust in authenticity.

• Is CPO a Template for Others?

  • While other brands (e.g., Vacheron, Audemars Piguet) look to emulate the model, neither share the unique economics or demand gravity of Rolex.
    • “I don't think there's any other watch brand that could build a CPO business at this scale... this remains, I think, a case study of one versus a template for the industry.” – Gabe [35:50, 36:04]
  • The hosts repeatedly caution that CPO’s mass success is idiosyncratic to Rolex, not a recipe for the broader industry.

Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “These micro communities…collectors that are connected together in these private groups trusting one another's taste is really what is driving so much excitement and trust in independent watches today relative to what we would have seen even three to five years ago.” – Asher [01:09]
• “Most Rolex pre-owned watches do not trade above retail...the percentage is getting smaller.” – Gabe [06:49]
• “Gross revenue is vanity, net profit is business.” – Asher (paraphrasing an industry saying) [17:29]
• “Clients are subsidizing Rolex's education. Nobody's necessarily getting rich on it per se, but Rolex is getting paid to learn.” – Asher [22:00 and 00:00]
• “The black hole of the CPO program will be pulling all available matter towards it.” – Asher [33:49]
• “I don't think there's any other watch brand that could build a CPO business at this scale... this remains, I think, a case study of one versus a template for the industry.” – Gabe [35:50, 36:04]
• “For the average person on the street who just knows a Rolex is kind of the pinnacle of luxury and of watches, you know, that's all they know...the certified pre owned program offers a ton of value.” – Gabe [39:17]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:44 – Dominic Renaud launch as an example of new media dynamics and indie brand success
• 06:29 – High-level summary of Rolex pre-owned market value retention trends
• 09:06 – Specific Rolex models and their pre-owned pricing performance
• 13:33 – Regional disparities (US/Japan vs. Europe/UK) in value retention
• 16:30 – Introduction of Rolex’s CPO program scale and significance
• 17:29 – Discussion on revenue vs. net profit; business rationale for CPO
• 24:34 – CPO price premiums vs. plain pre-owned market; the logistics of inventory sourcing
• 29:19 – Estimation of dealer margins and operational challenges in CPO rollout
• 32:49 – CPO market “gravity,” long-term implications for pricing floors and sourcing funnels
• 35:50 – Debate: Can any brand other than Rolex run CPO at this scale?
• 39:17 – Why CPO offers value to average, risk-averse buyers and supports the entire ecosystem

Tone & Takeaways

• Unfiltered and Analytical: The hosts stay true to the Openwork ethos: candid, informed, not afraid to challenge press-release optimism.
• Industry Insider Perspective: Throughout, Asher and Gabe draw on their direct retail experience.
• Watch Enthusiast Relevance: Both hobbyists and those interested in the business of watches will find actionable insights—especially regarding the realities (and limits) of value retention, the mechanics of the pre-owned market, and what Rolex’s next moves may portend for the entire industry.