Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry

Episode 58: Signs of Hope for an Industry Under Pressure – Tariffs, Supplier Woes, the Rise of India and New Releases

Date: December 8, 2025
Hosts: Asher Rapkin (A) & Gabe Reilly (B), Co-Founders of Collective Horology

Episode Overview

This episode marks the launch of a new, slightly retooled format for Openwork: alternating between classic deep-dive episodes and more topical, news-driven shows. Asher and Gabe break down three major industry developments:

1. The evolving situation with U.S. tariffs on Swiss watches
2. Continued strength—plus major challenges—in U.S. retail and supply
3. The emerging importance of India in the global watch market
   They also dissect major product launches and business strategies, highlighting the sector’s need for creativity and risk-taking to survive current economic headwinds.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Changing Landscape of U.S. Tariffs on Swiss Watches

[03:05 – 07:29]

• Recent “Agreement” on Tariffs:

  • A verbal accord was reached between the Swiss trade delegation and the U.S. to reduce the Swiss watch import tariff from a crushing 39% to 15%, aligning them with EU countries.
  • This is “phenomenal news for the industry... because it obviously significantly decreases the overall capital required to import a Swiss watch.” —Asher [03:26]
  • The deal remains verbal only; tariffs are still at 39% as of the episode's recording. The holdup is on the U.S. side, pending an executive order and official update to the tariff schedule.

• Legal Uncertainty—Supreme Court Case:

  • The Supreme Court heard a case challenging the executive branch's authority to impose such tariffs, questioning if Congress can cede taxing powers—a case with broader constitutional implications.
  • Asher: “Is any of this legal to begin with? Which is what the Supreme Court is grappling with now. So no matter what happens with...the 15%, there's still the proverbial shoe to drop.” [06:55]
  • An expedited ruling is possible, which could fundamentally change the trade situation.

2. U.S. Retail Strength Amidst Adversity

[07:29 – 13:41]

• U.S. Watch Sales Remain Robust:

  • Despite tariffs and price hikes, demand—especially for Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet—remains strong.
  • Watches of Switzerland’s U.S. earnings are actually up, driven by continued consumer appetite.
  • Gabe: “Never underestimate the strength and the resiliency and the fervor of the American consumer.” [07:33]

• Rolex’s Unique Position:

  • Rolex insulates itself against U.S. tariffs via transfer pricing and a U.S. subsidiary, reducing currency risk and tariff impact.
  • Asher: “There’s a form of insulation...they’re shielded from a lot of the pain...because the tariffs are assessed on the transfer pricing...not the retail or wholesale price.” [10:56]

• Pre-Owned Market Bifurcation:

  • Growth in pre-owned prices is focused on top brands; most other brands see declining prices and demand.

3. Watch Industry Under Pressure: Suppliers Feeling the Pain

[15:45 – 20:24]

• Supplier Struggles Highlighted at Dubai Watch Week:

  • Panels at Dubai Watch Week focused on business challenges—tariffs, macroeconomics, and “watchmaker shortages and vulnerabilities.”
  • Suppliers, highly specialized and dependent on brand contracts, are hardest hit by slowed demand and order reductions.

• Implications for Innovation:

  • Suppliers are crucial for industry innovation; their distress threatens future watchmaking breakthroughs.
  • Asher: “I don’t love the idea of smoldering innovation out with the tools that have been leveraged against the business, but this is the economic reality.” [18:42]

• Broader Price Pressures:

  • Gabe pushes back against the idea that brands are raising prices simply out of greed: “Higher prices hurt everyone...One of the reasons brands are having to renegotiate contracts is because watches are getting more expensive for everyone.” [20:24]

4. The Rise of India as a Major Watch Market

[22:24 – 26:23]

• India: The New Growth Engine:

  • India’s watch market is up 9% this year; worth $1.6 billion and projected to reach $2.8 billion by 2033.
  • Contrast: China, once the largest global market, is down 13% YoY.

• Tariff Reductions Fueling Growth:

  • The India–EFTA free trade deal is bringing tariffs gradually down from over 39% towards potentially 0%.
  • Asher: “If I were a Swiss watch executive, I would be laser focused on developing the Indian market.” [26:05]

5. New Releases & Brand Strategy: Risk vs. Malaise

[26:23 – 47:39]

Omega Seamaster Planet Ocean Reboot vs. Tudor Ranger Relaunch

[26:23 – 33:12]

• Omega’s Planet Ocean:

  • Hosts commend Omega for risk-taking, with bold design changes and luxury cues that move the line away from a “Submariner clone.”
  • Asher: “If you want to compete at the same price point, then you gotta offer something so different that you can’t...compare it.” [32:18]
  • “Good news: it’s really polarizing. People love it or they hate it. That is great...for a hit.” [33:08]

• Tudor Ranger:

  • Considered uninspired, symptomatic of Tudor’s sales stagnation and lack of excitement.
  • “It just sort of underscores why for me it just is lacking some of the excitement the brand had.” —Gabe [28:26]
  • Both agree: “At the end ... it's just a different dial.” —Tony Traina, paraphrased [28:47]

Creative Reinvigoration: Breguet Experimental 1 & Collaborations

[35:25 – 47:39]

• Breguet Experimental 1:

  • Not to their taste, but a signal of long-awaited creative risk for the storied brand.
  • “They are beginning to wake up from their slumber for the last decade and actually starting to take some creative risk.” —Asher [35:53]
  • For Breguet: “This is cool…Not my style aesthetically, but not the point.” —Asher [37:50]

• Ulysse Nardin x Urwerk “Urfreak” Collaboration:

  • Praised for being genuinely equal parts Urwerk and Freak, a rare and “bonkers” alliance.
  • “What I think is most interesting...the fact that Felix Baumgartner said, ‘Yeah, I want to collaborate with Ulysse Nardin,’ should tell you something.” —Gabe [42:55]
  • Asher notes the “incredible wearability and thinness,” a win for those intimidated by Urwerk dimensions. [44:15]

• Girard-Perregaux (GP) and Ulysse Nardin (UN):

  • Both are undergoing reinvention and risk-taking. The question: will these creative moves spread to bread-and-butter models and not just six-figure halo pieces?
  • “If we zoom out…Omega taking serious design risks...Breguet is doing that. UN did this…GP is testing the waters...This is good news across the board.” —Asher [47:16]

• The Industry’s Crucial Choice:

  • Unlike after 2008, when watch brands turned conservative, today’s environment is spurring boldness and experimentation—a trend the hosts celebrate and hope to see democratized across all price points.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tariffs:

  • "There’s an agreement, but there is no reduction. It’s still 39% today...And then there’s a question that even supersedes that one, which is, is any of this legal to begin with?" —Asher [06:55]

• On U.S. Market Resilience:

  • “If you told me any of that was going on...it would be to me rather remarkable.” —Gabe [12:34]

• On Breguet’s Revival:

  • “They are beginning to wake up from their slumber...and actually starting to take some creative risk.” —Asher [35:53]

• On Urwerk x Ulysse Nardin:

  • “I was shocked that they would do a collaboration with another brand that’s not an independent.” —Asher [43:11]
  • “It looked 100% like a freak and 100% like an Urwerk. And that to me...is awesome.” —Asher [43:19]
  • “If you have the opportunity to go see one...They are one of the coolest watches I’ve ever seen.” —Asher [44:32]

• On the Need for Industry-Wide Risk-Taking:

  • “This is an industry that is stagnant at best...and this is exactly what the industry needs to shake itself up and get people excited again and get its mojo back.” —Gabe [48:31]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:05] Tariffs Update: Verbal agreement, legal challenges, lack of implementation
• [07:29] U.S. Retail Strength: Watches of Switzerland earnings, role of Rolex
• [13:41] Dubai Watch Week & the Rise of Watch Fairs
• [15:45] Industry Panel Highlights: Supplier struggles and macroeconomic stress
• [22:24] India’s Rapid Growth & Tariff Reductions
• [26:23] New Releases: Omega Planet Ocean vs Tudor Ranger
• [35:25] Brand Revival: Breguet Experimental 1
• [42:55] Urwerk x Ulysse Nardin “Urfreak” Collaboration
• [47:16] The Industry’s Risk-Taking Future

Tone & Style

The hosts maintain an engaging, intelligent-yet-accessible style, offering candid analysis with flashes of wit (“what a tangled web we weave,” “going for that explicit tag,” etc.). Their expertise, critical insight, and genuine passion for horology—bolstered by personal stories and industry anecdotes—make the discussion rich and lively for both insiders and lay listeners.

Final Takeaway

While challenges in tariffs, supply, and shifting global demand loom, the hosts see clear signs of industry adaptation. New markets like India, innovative product launches, and a newfound willingness to break creative molds are sparking renewed optimism—provided brands spread this spirit of risk-taking beyond just the flagship models.