Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry – Episode 71

“Speculation Season – Rolex GMT Master, Swiss Watch Data, & Betting Markets”
Hosts: Asher Rapkin & Gabe Reilly (Collective Horology)
Date: March 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode dives into three current hot-button topics within the watch industry:

1. Speculation and rumors around the Rolex GMT Master II "Pepsi" discontinuation
2. Controversy and analysis of the latest Morgan Stanley/LuxConsult Swiss Watch Industry report, including industry reactions
3. Discussion of the Kalshi Watch Betting Market and its implications for the watch world

Throughout, Asher and Gabe maintain their signature mix of unfiltered industry insight, humor, and frank analysis, arguing for a focus on the business mechanics behind the watches rather than the hype.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rolex GMT Master II "Pepsi" Speculation

Timestamps: 04:12 – 08:38

• Rumors of Discontinuation:
  The stainless steel GMT Master II "Pepsi" (red/blue bezel) disappeared from authorized dealer websites about a month ago, sparking speculation it’s being discontinued. Despite remaining on Rolex.com for a while, retailers have reportedly been informed that no further deliveries will be made (04:12).

• Significance of Dealer Listings:
  The guys explain that the Rolex sections of authorized retailer websites are directly controlled by Rolex, lending credence to the removal signaling an actual discontinuation (04:40).

• Speculation on What’s Next:
  The watch community wonders if the "Coke" (red/black bezel) will return or if this is simply another strategic supply move. There's debate about whether the complexity of producing the red ceramic is a factor.

• Asher's Take:

  "Honestly, I find this to be a really boring conversation. I'll be honest with you. It was red and blue, now it's red and black. Okay, next topic." ([05:04])

  Asher emphasizes that bezel changes are typical Rolex incrementalism and encourages people not to get caught up in the hype.

• Shifting Focus at Rolex:
  The hosts are more interested in watching for a Milgauss return and Rolex’s development of dress watches, particularly after the retirement of the Cellini line. They see this as more consequential than incremental color changes.

• Memorable Banter:
  The hosts riff about their soda preferences in relation to the “Pepsi” and “Coke” watches, highlighting the playful tone of their friendship ([07:45]–[08:38]).

2. Morgan Stanley & LuxConsult Swiss Watch Industry Report

Timestamps: 08:38 – 25:40

• Industry Drama:
  Each year, Morgan Stanley and LuxConsult release a Swiss watch report intended for investors, not enthusiasts. This year, Swatch Group and Tudor both issued public pushback, criticizing the methodology and contesting the numbers, though neither provided robust alternative data ([08:38], [12:06]).

• Context for Swatch Group's Response:
  Swatch is under financial pressure—weak results, a depressed stock, and activist investor challenges to the Hayek family’s control. The negative portrayal in the report only adds fuel to the fire ([09:30]).

• Legal Nuances:
  Asher points out an interesting legal tidbit:

  “The Swiss legal system does not operate the same way as the American legal system... there is no period of discovery in a civil suit.” ([13:00])
  This could insulate firms from exposure in ways that differ from U.S. law.

• Why These Reports Matter:
  Because most major watch companies are private and seldom report brand-level results, analyst reports like Morgan Stanley’s provide rare, albeit imperfect, transparency. Their methods involve export data, retailer interviews, and year-over-year modeling. Vontobel’s industry report largely confirms their findings ([14:28]).

• New Billion-Franc Brands & Market Shifts:
  Six Swiss brands now do over 1 billion CHF in wholesale value: Rolex, Cartier, AP, Patek Philippe, Omega, and Richard Mille.

  • AP and Patek Philippe have overtaken Omega in value.
  • Cartier, long considered a volume/value brand, is now #2 in both sales value and likely volume, thanks to huge interest in quartz Tank watches ([16:58]).

  “Cartier is now...not just a value contender, but a volume contender. They're now number two probably in terms of volume as well.” – Gabe ([18:25])

• Case Study: Audemars Piguet’s Strategic Moves:
  Shoutout to substacker "Velocifile" for their analysis of AP:

  • Strategic supplier investments stabilize the supply chain.
  • Their “École de Savoir-Faire” cross-trains watchmakers in both servicing and production, improving overall shop knowledge.
  • However, AP remains overly reliant on the Royal Oak as a "cultural meme"—and its Code 1159 still lacks traction ([19:13]–[22:29]).

• Christopher Ward Succeeds “Against the Grain”:
  Despite the premiumization trend, UK-based Christopher Ward saw massive 50% revenue growth and a 66% US increase:

  “You can be successful in business not just by chasing a trend, but by doing what you do exceptionally well and offering value.” – Gabe ([24:45])

  Their clear "3x markup" model (one third materials, one third overhead, one third profit) offers unusual transparency ([25:45]).

• Jacob & Co: The Ultra-Luxury Outlier:
  Jacob & Co has become a top growth brand, with watches now outpacing jewelry in sales.

  “There’s a market for it... We can’t necessarily define the market in our own terms as enthusiasts or collectors.” – Gabe ([29:09])

3. Kalshi: Watch Futures & Betting Markets

Timestamps: 30:10 – 45:40

• Introduction to Kalshi:
  Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform (not a gambling website). In partnership with Bezel, it will allow users to trade “yes/no” contracts on watch events—e.g., whether certain models will increase in value or be released ([30:10]).

• Kalshi’s Partner: Bezel
  Bezel, a C2C watch marketplace, provides the pricing data (the “Beztimate,” a proprietary blend of historic, real-time, and offered prices) for the market ([33:22]–[36:32]).

• Hosts’ Skepticism & Regulatory Concerns:
  Asher:

  “I think this story is incredibly dumb and is something we'll look back at in a couple years—kind of like we do NFTs...” ([33:22])

  Potential for insider trading is a major risk, given how thin and niche the markets are. Unlike deep global event markets, watches are easy for insiders to influence, especially on specifics like model discontinuations ([36:32]–[40:18]).

  • Corruption and price manipulation concerns:
    If Bezel’s data (which isn’t externally audited) were ever “juiced,” it could spark regulatory issues under laws such as California’s revised Cartwright Act ([40:18]–[42:25]).

• Legitimate Hedge Use Case:
  There’s a conceivable strategic use—dealers and retailers could "hedge" their inventory’s market risk by betting against price changes, similar to financial market hedging ([43:17]–[45:36]).

• Meta-Commentary on Publicity:
  Asher:

  “We’ve never talked about Bezel or Kalshi before, and we just did for 15 minutes... So, from a brand awareness standpoint, this is a win.” ([45:40])

4. Listener Question: Is Industry-Focused Talk a Turnoff?

Timestamps: 45:54 – 49:40

• Question:
  “Do you ever worry that by talking so much about tariffs, suppliers, and the ‘industry’, you’re making the hobby seem too complicated or businesslike and actually pushing away new collectors who just want to enjoy watches?”

• Hosts’ Response:

  • This podcast embraces the business and industry side—there are plenty of shows for the collecting/cultural/historical aspect.
  • There’s surprising demand for this kind of deep-dive content among watch fans.
  • The show’s success in the charts and growing engagement prove the appetite is real.

  “We’ve actually found the opposite. … This ends up being the only watch podcast that some people listen to, which is wild to me.” – Gabe ([49:31])

Notable Quotes

• On bezel changes:

  “If we're changing the bezel on this watch … that's just Rolex doing Rolex stuff.” – Asher ([07:44])

• On the Morgan Stanley controversy:

  “They want to criticize anything that is critical of them or paints them in a … negative light, but yet they don't want to provide the transparency for that unless it's cherry picked one at a time. So to me, tempest in a teapot.” – Gabe ([14:28])

• On Cartier’s rise:

  “Cartier is now … not just a value contender, but a volume contender. They're now number two probably in terms of volume as well.” – Gabe ([18:47])

• On watch futures contracts:

  “If you buy a watch and you think it's going to go up or down, you still have the watch. If you place a prediction … and you're wrong, you lose everything.” – Gabe ([39:18])

• On the value of business talk in the hobby:

  “Every industry is complex … One of the things that you and I talked about … was that we didn’t want to have sponsorships or … honest conversation. So I view that as a feature in our book.” – Asher ([47:03])

Key Timestamps

| Segment | Timestamps | |-----------------------------------------------|--------------| | Rolex GMT Master II "Pepsi" Discontinuation | 04:12–08:38 | | Morgan Stanley / LuxConsult Report Dispute | 08:38–16:50 | | Swiss Watch Industry Trends & AP Analysis | 16:50–24:57 | | Christopher Ward & Jacob & Co Growth | 24:57–30:10 | | Kalshi Watch Futures / Betting Market | 30:10–45:40 | | Listener Question: Hobby vs. Business Focus | 45:54–49:40 |

Overall Tone & Style

The episode is direct, slightly irreverent, and often humorous. Asher and Gabe balance expert-level analysis with friendly banter, prizing transparency, honesty, and skepticism regarding industry “hype”. The conversation moves quickly from news to broader business and cultural implications, making it especially valuable for listeners seeking more than surface-level watch enthusiasm.

For more, visit CollectiveHorology.com or join the conversation on their YouTube channel and social accounts.