Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry

Episode 48: The Watch Industry’s Busiest Summer – Geneva Watch
 Days Preview,
 Swiss Exports, 
Plus Richemont
 Earnings
Date: September 1, 2025
Hosts: Asher Rapkin (“B”), Gabe Reilly (“A”)

Episode Overview

In this (slightly shorter) episode, Asher and Gabe dive into three pressing topics shaping the watch industry at the close of summer 2025:

1. A preview of Geneva Watch Days—including how the event has evolved and what to expect this year
2. Analysis of the July 2025 Swiss watch export data, highlighting the stark contrasts between US and global markets
3. Insights into Richemont’s latest earnings, and what that says about larger industry health

Throughout, they keep the tone off-the-cuff and transparent, sharing what they’re hearing “in the rooms” and signaling what collectors and industry insiders should watch for as the fall season begins.

1. Geneva Watch Days Preview

• [05:14-12:36]

Evolving Identity: From Collector Playground to Industry Tentpole

• Geneva Watch Days has morphed from a laid-back, consumer-collector event into a key, high-stakes trade fair for the independent watch sector.
  • “It’s a much more relaxed event... We can go and meet with people in T-shirts and jeans. It really changes... a lot of the energy because there’s much less of a corporate structure there.” – Asher [05:14]
• The shift is palpable:
  • “I think we’re actually more busy during Geneva Watch Days than we are at Watches and Wonders.” – Gabe [05:52]
  • Six to eight meetings per day are now the norm, with even more outreach from new brands wanting to connect.

The US Market’s Ongoing Dominance

• Increased foreign attention:
  • “The American market, the US Market, is still a behemoth, and still something that the haut horology and independent watch world are paying a great deal of attention to.” – Asher [06:38]
• Geneva Watch Days remains a hybrid:
  • Conceived as a collector event, but the B2B focus has ballooned: “The tenor of the show is changing...the industry presence and the B2B focus... has really ramped up.” – Gabe [07:44]

Surge of Novelties and Fall Launches

• The event has become the key autumn launch window—like an “arbitrage window” for dropping novelties without competition from Watches & Wonders.
  • “Now, this week, it’s like pretty much every brand is launching something during this show... It’s becoming more and more of a conventional watch show.” – Gabe [10:36]

What to Expect From Openwork

• On-the-ground episodes direct from Geneva Watch Days:
  • “We will have a special episode of Openwork... an on-the-ground report... what we’re hearing in meetings, what we’re seeing, and of course, a discussion of novelties, both from a creative standpoint and a business strategy standpoint.” – Asher [10:50]

2. Swiss Watch Export Data: Reading Between the Lines

• [13:11–21:58]

July 2025: Export Spike, US-Driven

• 7% YoY growth in total Swiss watch exports—but look closer:
  • Exports to US surged 45% YoY—thanks mostly to brands racing to beat the looming 39% tariff.
    • “A 45% increase is massive. So that happened. However... shipments are down to almost every other market.” – Gabe [14:15]
  • China (often #2 market) dropped by 6.5%. Virtually every major market outside the US is soft or in decline.

Market Distortions and Tariff Front-Loading

• The data is “on steroids”—artificially pumped up by abnormal inventory movement, not genuine consumer demand.
  • “Are the Japanese market and others really down? ...Or is it that brands shifted inventory to the US to front-run tariffs?”
  • “We need six months to see where this lands.” – Gabe [19:13]
• Analyst skepticism about reading too much into these “vital signs”:
  • “I sort of wonder if what we’re looking at are the vital signs of a person on steroids...some places look insane and some places look really bad.” – Asher [17:27]

Independent vs. Major Group Sales Flows

• Export data for independents can be misleading; much inventory delivered now was ordered years earlier.
• Large groups (like Richemont) provide more current “sell-in vs sell-through” data—insights that are “more timely in the sense that they make a watch, they deliver the watch, they sell the watch.” – Asher [21:18]

Memorable Moment:

• Asher’s “on steroids” analogy:
  • “Steroids get you to this place where you feel like everything is okay, but you’re still very sick. And I look at this and I wonder if that’s sort of the same thing...” [17:27]

3. Richemont Earnings—Jewelry Up, Watchmaking Down

• [21:58–33:49]

Richemont Q1 2026 Snapshot

• Net sales up 6%—but bulk of growth from jewelry division (up 11%)
  • “Their jewelry business is doing incredibly well...that is Cartier, Van Cleef, and Arpels, and a number of others.” – Gabe [23:11]
• Cartier is a colossus:
  • Estimated to generate up to half of Richemont’s global sales [24:43]
  • Its watch business is massive, but specific numbers are murky
    • “If you want evidence of this... look at the love bracelet. Love bracelets have also begun appreciating quite significantly.” – Asher [26:12]

Specialist Watchmakers: Declining Sales

• Richemont’s “specialist watchmakers” (IWC, JLC, Vacheron, Lange, Piaget, Baume & Mercier) saw sales down 7% for Q1.
• Raises industry-wide questions since total Swiss exports (including independents) surged on the surface.

Richemont’s US Exports—Out of Sync

• While exports to US from Switzerland jumped 149% (April) and 45% (July), Richemont’s US exports only rose 17%.
  • Implies Richemont is being unusually cautious or taking a “wait and see” approach to the tariff situation versus other companies’ “front-load everything” tactics.
  • “The fact that they did that while everyone else is rushing... tells me something’s going on there. I don’t know what it is, but... there may be trouble in paradise.” – Gabe [29:09]

Market Power, Brand Control, and Retail Pressure

• Richemont’s dominance gives it enormous leverage over retailers—franchise agreements lock them in, leaving them exposed to decisions from head office.
• “If the sales are healthy, but they continue to constrict, like margin for example, or they increase required purchase... those retailers are then going to be carrying a lot of water for Richemont and some of that’s going to break.” – Asher [32:12]
• The true effects on retailer health may not be obvious until well into 2026.

Notable Quotes & Highlights

• On the industry mood shift:

  • “I remember the first year we went, we were one of the only US Dealers there... now... the industry presence and the B2B focus of Geneva Watch Days... has really ramped up.” – Gabe [07:44]

• On the US as global growth engine:

  • “The American market... is still a behemoth... that the haut horology and independent watch world are paying a great deal of attention to.” – Asher [06:38]

• On Richemont's paradox

  • “Cartier alone is responsible for almost half of Richemont's total sales. So Cartier in general is Atlas here holding up the rest of Richemont.” – Asher [24:43]

• On the difficulty of reading today’s numbers:

  • “What we’re looking at are the vital signs of a person on steroids... it’s going to be really hard to get an idea of where we really are as an industry for at least another couple of quarters.” – Asher [17:27]

Important Timestamps

• Geneva Watch Days discussion: [05:14–12:36]
• US market and B2B trends: [06:05–08:44]
• Explosion of new releases & event strategy: [08:44–10:50]
• Export spike explanation: [13:11–16:27]
• Market “on steroids” analogy + skepticism: [17:27–19:13]
• Richemont performance breakdown: [21:58–27:44]
• Cartier’s scale and role: [24:43–27:44]
• Richemont/retailer power dynamics: [30:42–33:49]

Final Takeaways

• Geneva Watch Days 2025 is poised to be the busiest yet, with more novelties and higher commercial stakes than ever.
• US market continues to shape global industry strategy, but export data is likely distorted by short-term maneuvers around tariffs.
• Richemont’s jewelry-fueled success masks weakness in its core watchmaking brands, raising questions about long-term health.
• True industry health will only be visible in a few quarters—today’s numbers are likely “on steroids.”

Stay tuned for subsequent "on-the-ground" Openwork episodes from Geneva, where Asher and Gabe will break down the real news from inside the show.