← Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry
Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry
Unexpected Winners in a Down Market – Independents, Microbrands & Neo-vintage – Episode 72
01:02:36
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- [00:01]
Gabe Riley
If you are sitting in your ivory tower in Switzerland at the Richemont Group, at one of the Maisons or the Swatch Group or wherever, and you're saying to yourself, all of these micro brands are totally irrelevant. They're a rounding error. We have a brand. We have something that they don't have, which is a brand. We are luxury. You better check yourself because the foundation on which you built your brand and that luxury that is slowly crumbling. This is openwork, a look inside the watch industry, a podcast from Collective Horology. I'm Gabe Riley, co founder of Collective.
- [00:38]
Asher Rapkin
And I'm Asher Rapkin, co founder of Collective. Collective Horology is an independent watch retailer based in Southern California. We carry a wide range of independent brands, including Chapek, Fiers and more. Ooh, was that, Is that a beep? Did I get beeped?
- [00:53]
Gabe Riley
You got beeped.
- [00:54]
Asher Rapkin
Oh, wow. Yeah, probably would have broke an embargo on that one. But that's, that's going to be an important announcement. Announcement and a project and a brand that we have been incredibly excited to talk about. And tomorrow, Tuesday, March 17th. Yeah, yeah. St. Patty's Day indeed is the launch of. Oh, I got beeped again. All right, well, come on, man, it's fun. Can I say one more time, just beep me.
- [01:20]
Gabe Riley
I'm the one who has to do all the beeping. So enough of that.
- [01:27]
Asher Rapkin
All right, so tune in to. Tune in to. To learn more about that from us in coming weeks and of course, visit our Instagram to be introduced to.
- [01:36]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, we'll have it on Instagram, of course, collective horology.com where you can check out this new brand which is really cool and really cool. First watch. Well, hardly the first watch from this watchmaker, but first watch from there now.
- [01:51]
Asher Rapkin
Oh, it is definitely not the first watch from.
- [01:53]
Gabe Riley
So cool stuff. Check it out. Independent watches. So speaking about independent watches, we're going to chat a little bit about independence today. In fact, we're going to talk about independence. Spoiler alert or not a spoiler. A little bit of a clue here in sort of the high end of the indie market, which is certainly where this new brand will fall. But really what we're chatting about today is this idea of winners in a down market. And we've talked a lot about the state of the watch market. The watch market. The watch industry is going through one of its most difficult periods and decades. Certainly we've spoken a lot about that on this podcast and that doesn't mean that everything is down, really. The brutality that the market is experiencing is really kind of in the volume brands and the brands and the sub $5,000 segment. Famously, a lot of the Swatch Group brands, some Richemont brands, were affected by this as well. Bauman, Mercier, which was spun off. That doesn't mean there aren't winners. We've spoken a lot about the winners who are rolling, running away with the market. So we've got Rolex, ap, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille, who are running away with the high end of the market. We've talked a lot about this trend of premiumization. We've also seen Cartier turn into the watch world's number two watch brand by revenue, maybe even volume as well, given their average selling price. So we all know that that is well established. Those are not the things we're going to talk about today. What we're going to talk about today is where else there's some unexp strength in the watch market and among watch collectors. And one of those, one of those segments certainly is independent watchmaking. And there's a few others. But why don't we. We start with. With the indies. This is a segment of the market that obviously we're in. We're an authorized retailer of independent brands. We have a growing business year after year after year. Our business continues to grow thanks to the strength of independent brands, thanks to the interest in independent brands. And this is a segment of the market that has been a real bright spot. And I often equate it to. In the last 20 years, for instance, at least in the United States, the beer market, domestic beer market has been in decline. Beer has been down and the bright spot within the beer market. So although the overall market has been shrinking, that doesn't mean all beer brands are suffering. Craft beers, microbrews, they have been growing obviously recently. Recently they've hit some, some rough waters. Nothing lasts forever. But to me, this is what's going on with, with independence. There's just a different market dynamic there. There's a different kind of collector who's interested in them. And this is a segment of the market that's not just gaining share, but is growing overall in a market that's otherwise challenged.
- [04:43]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, I mean, look, there's, there's a lot of ways we can interpret what the value and the growth of independents are. But I think one thing that is indisputable is that the tent has gotten a lot bigger. You know, if we roll back the clock, even just a decade ago, independence represented such a minuscule amount both by volume of units as well, as in terms of revenue of the overall market, that it was quite fringe, to be honest. Again, speaking relative to the watch market as a whole, it's still fringe to the market relative to volume of units sold, but revenue does continue to increase. And that is tied largely, I think, to what we are seeing from creative, you know, from the creative side of the independence. And that's really what drives a lot of independence, creativity. It doesn't look like, you know, most of these watches do not look like they are from central casting. So I think a lot of that, A lot of that has to do with it. And just going back for a second, just looking at, like, some of the established brands that are down or appear to be down in revenue in 2025, there are a couple things in there I just want to point out before we get into the independence, because they
- [05:43]
Gabe Riley
align stuff we've never talked about before.
- [05:46]
Asher Rapkin
Well, it aligns a little bit with the point you're making.
- [05:48]
Gabe Riley
It sets the table. Okay.
- [05:49]
Asher Rapkin
It sets the table for the conversation.
- [05:50]
Gabe Riley
All right.
- [05:51]
Asher Rapkin
Careful, I'll make you beat me again.
- [05:52]
Gabe Riley
Get out your forks and knives. Break out your finest flatware for this one.
- [06:00]
Asher Rapkin
Jesus. Okay, so when we look at the 10 established brands that we identified that were reported from monochrome watches as being down 15 plus percent in revenue year over year, the list is Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, Blancpain, Breguet, Panerai, Roger Dubuis, Zenith, Gerard Pierko and Franck Muller. It is not, however, reasonable to look at those brands and say that they're all down for the same reason. Absolutely.
- [06:24]
Gabe Riley
Or that they're down because they don't have good products. The first brand you led there with is Longines.
- [06:29]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah. And I would actually say when I look, for example, again, I'm looking through the eye of like an independent lover and an independent collector. There are a couple brands in here that I actually do think might be. Might have significant upside this year based on how they've readjusted towards the end of last year. That's Breguet in particular. Breguet has been on a tour of product innovation. I mean, that has been a sleeping giant for a long time. Putting aside my own personal interest in
- [06:53]
Gabe Riley
appearing, it fits in with what we're talking about here, which is indies are doing well on the back of creativity and fine watchmaking. Okay.
- [07:00]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah. I mean, and Albergue is, of course, cram pappy to all, you know, modern watchmaking. So there's something there. But I think putting all that heritage, whatever aside, when you look at, for example, you know, their most recent release at the end of last year, which is technically incredibly complex and very futuristic, but still in the brand vocabulary. So looks like a Breguet in its own way. That indicates to me that there's potential Roger Dubuis. Same thing.
- [07:24]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [07:24]
Asher Rapkin
For a while they were like, out there with those kind of intense, like
- [07:27]
Gabe Riley
Excaliburs or whatever, you know, and those robotic dogs.
- [07:31]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, I know. It's like you'd walk by the watches and wonders, like, hope I can get
- [07:34]
Gabe Riley
some B roll of those things. Kind of terrifying.
- [07:36]
Asher Rapkin
I'm not sure if that's going to happen again. And that, that booth was always a little bit of like a Terminator vibe. So, you know, they, they, they definitely are coming back over to, I think, what anchored that brand in its original. In its original form, which is, if you look at some of those early Roger Dubuis, fantastically cool watches and GP Scuttle.
- [07:54]
Gabe Riley
But there is there. That may be another Richemont brand that's on the chopping block. Again, these are rum. You know, this is industry discussion and speculation, but you could certainly see how that's a brand that maybe might do better in an independent structure on its own.
- [08:09]
Asher Rapkin
Maybe. I mean, I'm just looking at it from a product standpoint right now. My point being that when you look at, like, Breguet, Roger Dubuis and Gerard Perregaux in particular out of that list, those are brands that are catching up with product on a gap that has been there for some time. When you look at others in there, like Longines Swatch, Hamilton, you know, to me, I'm like that. Those are brands that, that probably are in a place that need to, like, the economic pressures are forcing them to take a look at some of the strategic realities of their business. And what I mean by that is Longines Watch and Hamilton have kind of been making the same watches for a long time, and it might be time to kind of really rethink what that looks like.
- [08:47]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [08:47]
Asher Rapkin
And that, and that external pressure may lead to a positive thing. And then you've got brands that are kind of, you know, like Blancpain and Panerai, where it's like they, you know, despite all indications, they just keep marching towards the same doom. Yeah. With. With much glee and abandon. So. So my point is.
- [09:05]
Gabe Riley
Sticks in the mud.
- [09:06]
Asher Rapkin
Yes. My point is like the, the, you know, there is a lot of dynamism in the holding company brand world at the moment.
- [09:13]
Gabe Riley
It's easy to paint it with a broad brush, but there are certainly brands within there and who have products within there that will play into some of the trends that we're talking about today.
- [09:21]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, totally.
- [09:22]
Gabe Riley
And I think like the indie trend in particular, like the independent brands are doing well not because of their structure or their corporate, their business structure. They're doing well because of creativity, risk taking and perceived value in a market that's very tough. And they're certainly holding company brands. Breguet is a great example of, of, of that, that have the ingredients to do the same regardless of their ownership structure.
- [09:46]
Asher Rapkin
Absolutely. Which then brings us back over to independence because I think when we contextualize what's going on in the mass market we can really have a better understanding of what's happening.
- [09:54]
Gabe Riley
That's good. That will set up the. One of the other, both the other segments of the market we're going to talk about as well which is micro brands compete with that mid tier of watches at that $5,000 and under price point as well as vintage which competes with everything. So yeah, let's talk about independence. I think one of the interesting things about independence we've talked about, they're succeeding on the back of great products of creativity, of innovation, of genuine risk taking. These are all things that are a breath of fresh air to your point to some mainstream brands and group brands that feel like they're stuck and they're just not evolving. One of the other things I've noticed about independence and we can. It's harder to talk about the business of independent watch watches. I mean very few of these brands have really broken into, you know, the top 50 list that Morgan Stanley and others produce. Although I think MB&F did by value which is, which is interesting. But on, on the topic of MB and F, one of the other things we can look at is just mind share and there is a mind share around these brands that just didn't exist five and certainly ten years ago. So I pulled up a Google Trends report and I put in prototypical independent watch brand. I put in MBNF and I'm looking here at. And for those who are watching on YouTube we'll have this on screen. But I put in search term search data, trend data for MB and F over time since the year 2004 barely registered not surprisingly until looks like the year 2008 here. But you see.
- [11:27]
Asher Rapkin
Well in fairness that would make sense because the brand to see.
- [11:29]
Gabe Riley
Exactly, that's my point. But you see here right around 2020, 2021, all of a sudden there's an uptick in search volume for MBNF and it had been flat and actually flat to down from the period of about 2010 to 2020, which is surprising because in that time MB and F was gathering steam. It was making some of the watches that we still think today.
- [11:55]
Asher Rapkin
But for something to register on a Google trend report, the volume has to be somewhat.
- [11:59]
Gabe Riley
There's volume there I. But it's a flat line. In fact it's flat to down over that, over that ten year time period. But then it hits an inflection point in 2021 and you can certainly say, oh well, that was Covid, that was the watch bubble, so on and so forth. We've talked about all that stuff a million times. But here's the thing, it keeps gathering steam. So search volume and search traffic around MB and F is growing in 2000, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, now into 26, it's on a steady increase. So this is a brand that is gaining in mind share and it's a segment of the market that's gaining mind share and I think that's a very good indication for the business. There's genuine interest there. And I think that's particularly remarkable given the fact that like independent watchmaking, all things considered is relatively niche. If you ask the average person who says they're into watches about MB and F, they've actually probably never heard of it. And like that, that's total, that's totally fine. So to me it's pretty remarkable that this is a brand that continues to grow its mindshare year after year after year through the great watch bubble of the, of the early 2000s. Yeah.
- [13:16]
Asher Rapkin
The other thing to note about MB and F, which I think is important is when you think about other independents that had sort of a significant push during that era, whether it's, you know, journe, whether it's to a degree Debitune, you know, these are brands that also had third party significant financial backing at that time. If you recall, Debitune was acquired by the 1916 company, or majority stake was acquired by the 1916 company during that same period of time. That put a ton of attention onto Debitune, which prior to that was very much a sleeping giant.
- [13:47]
Gabe Riley
Oh my God. I'm look, I am now looking at the results here for, for Jorn, I mean similar to MB and F, you know, basically 2007 through about 2017, 2016 or so. Yeah, it's, it's kind of a flat line. You know, it's, it's there but it's not really growing. It kind of goes away until 2020 and really 2021 and it explodes similar to MB and F. Huge sustained interest and growth in the topic from 2021 till now. And it had been asleep from. It wasn't registering at all in Google Trends from 2016 to 2020. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. So this is a segment of the market that has just taken off but continues to grow year after year.
- [14:37]
Asher Rapkin
Jorn, there was a. I mean there is debate about whether there was market manipulation around Jorn on the pre owned market in that same period of time which also created another significant sort of
- [14:48]
Gabe Riley
like in what period of time?
- [14:50]
Asher Rapkin
Around starting around 2020, 2021 which ultimately you know, were basically like a lot of pieces were bought up and then resold at higher prices which also obviously had a very strong impact on the brand itself, which I think makes somewhere around like a thousand watches or so a year, give or take and.
- [15:06]
Gabe Riley
But you can't make. No, no, you can fabricate that, but you can't make up the trend data. In other words, what's top of mind for people, what they're searching, what watch brand they think to put in the search bar.
- [15:14]
Asher Rapkin
What I'm saying is that Journe and in particular had significant fine like there was financial stuff driving that like oh if I buy this it's worth more. Which is different than somebody who might have been looking up someone like a, you know, a Pinault watch for example, you know where you have like a. Like Sylvain Pinault's watches are incredible indie. Yeah but you know, but the interest in them was driven entirely by the passion of the watch, you know, for people, for the watchmaker, not by any form of financial gain. So I do think it's kind of interesting to see that trend and how it aligns when we know about the context of some of that.
- [15:47]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, I mean I guess the at I don't want to get too pedantic about it because I always find these conversations annoying, but would you consider Jorn.
- [15:53]
Asher Rapkin
You want to talk about Pepsi's again? No.
- [15:56]
Gabe Riley
Would you consider Jordan an independent in the way that you would an NBNF or a Cari Bootlenen?
- [16:01]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, I mean I think you know, look, when you, I mean both at this point, both mbnf, Jorn and Debitune all have investment from third party large corporations. Yeah, so you know those are. That's actually a really good.
- [16:18]
Gabe Riley
My point is like kind of like AP though Jorn has been like financialized as you're pointing out, which is like a large driver and a large reason people buy it right now, which you can love or hate, I find it annoying is that it's a financial instrument or it's a safe way to park your money.
- [16:35]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, I would say that. That, yeah, I'd say that that's certainly a component of buying decisions. I mean, those watches are extremely expensive. So I do think that that is a portion of it. And knowing if you're going to spend a hundred thousand do on something that's going to be, you know, quote unquote worth 180, makes it a lot easier to allocate, you know, that kind of funds to it. But anyway, my point is, I do think it's interesting to look at that class of independent, which are like the independents that have financially grown up, so to speak. I don't mean that to be pejorative. Yeah. But just, you know, because they have third party investment, because that investment has been so dramatic and because in many cases that investment does have an impact and how that brand was able to grow and therefore the value of their pieces grow, and therefore the attention, the brand grow is different than when we look at other brands within the independent world that we find very appealing or interesting or that we retail, for example, that, you know, they're not capitalized in that way, but we think they maybe are on that projection, that trajectory. Because that's the roadmap that we're seeing now. Yeah, the roadmap is 20 years of, you know, toil leading, leading to these inflection points where it all kind of clicks and it works and it all and everything lines up. Yeah.
- [17:48]
Gabe Riley
And I think it would be one cynical takeaway from this conversation so far about the independence could be. Well, it's easy to say independents are succeeding when you can point to MB and F, when you can point to Kari, when you can point to Jorn.
- [18:02]
Asher Rapkin
Well, you and I wouldn't have a living if everyone else wasn't succeeding too.
- [18:07]
Gabe Riley
Sure. But I think my point here is like, it would be, it would, you know, you could make the argument, okay, well, sure. What's going on in independent watchmaking isn't so much that creativity and risk taking and innovation and like delivering real value or being rewarded. What's going on is like a smaller microcosm of the larger watch industry where you have Rolex, ap, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille running away with everything and everyone else is suffering. What I see when I step back and I look at and look some of that is going on. I mean, the financialization of Journe, I'm sure is a big part of the reason. If you look just in pure dollar terms, revenue terms, independent watchmaking as a segment of the market is continuing to grow. However, there are other brands that don't fall into that sort of, and I don't mean this pejoratively, that sort of hype segment of indies. So a great example would be Capek. And you know this is not something that we would ever publish but it, it was released. So I remember a few months ago King Flum somehow got his hands on some shareholder data, some data, financial performance data from Capex annual shareholder meeting. They have a private group of shareholders. Most of their shareholders are either employees or collectors. They got their hands on some shareholder data which showed that Chapek was following a similar trajectory here which is like the brand was moving up in average price point and moving up into a more premium segment. And this is a brand that is very much an enthusiast brand. Is very much an enthusiast. Darling is very much a poster child of the rise of independent watchmaking over the last 10 years quite literally. They just celebrated their 10 year anniversary for the modern brand. And this is also a brand that is showing success, sustained growth and in fact a move into more, more and more premium, premium pricing. And you know, frankly most of the interest we get in Chapek right now, to be totally candid, isn't really around the Antarctic. That's still a great watch. It's still a watch that sells, it's still a watch that people love. It's still a watch that's actually very top of mind and associated with the brand. But most of the sales in terms of revenue for us at Chapek are coming from their high end pieces, are coming from things like the Tourbillons.
- [20:22]
Asher Rapkin
And I think that's true for most of the independent brands that we sell.
- [20:27]
Gabe Riley
But this is my point. I mean the independent brands are performing incredibly well, they're incredibly resilient and they're finding ways to continue to evolve their business and in some ways follow that same trend of premiumization we see in the, in the market overall. But they're doing it for different reasons. The reason why that the Rattrapante R U R is successful isn't because it's an expensive watch. It's because it's a really cool watch and a very creative watch and a watch that takes risks.
- [20:58]
Asher Rapkin
So you identified a couple of traits which I think are the kind of the what, what is the connective tissue between these which I think are interesting. Right? So one is relative to mass, the larger Brands we discussed earlier, much lower production. Chapek is somewhere around 1500 watches a year, which is very impressive for an independent brand. But relative to like, you know, Longines is, is a drop in the bucket, obviously bad, you know, not apples to apples there. But just in terms of volume, you point out strong personal signatures, which is absolutely true. You know, when we talk about each of these brands, like there is a very clear connection to. I mean, obviously, you know, Max's name is in the. Is in MB and F. Sure.
- [21:38]
Gabe Riley
But even Chapek, you know, people. The Roquemorel.
- [21:40]
Asher Rapkin
Exactly. You know, and that's certainly true, you know, across the board for a lot of the brands that we were just talking about. Of course, high finishing. The reason why I kind of like take a step back from this is I kind of think at that price point or at the price point of license watches. Exactly. And then, you know, there's this other side too, which is the ecosystem of, of retailers and direct sales is much tighter. And because of that these watches don't become commoditized. Yes. You know, we don't like there are. If we think about how many. I'll use Chapek as an example again, because Chapek is one of the bigger brands we're talking about here. Relatively speaking. If you think about how many Czapek watches are currently available in the United States, it's probably less than 50.
- [22:27]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [22:28]
Asher Rapkin
You know, maybe 60. And that's, that's a lot for independence.
- [22:32]
Gabe Riley
That's a lot for independence. But that's also tiny relative to the mind share of the brand.
- [22:36]
Asher Rapkin
This is my point. And if you, and then if you think about like, well, how many available like debitunes are there? Probably less than 20. You know, how many available Josh Shapiro's are there right now? One, two, maybe if that New.
- [22:52]
Gabe Riley
New. Probably none.
- [22:54]
Asher Rapkin
Maybe none. Yeah. I mean, you know, we don't have any. We. Everything that we've. Everything that we had sold immediately. So my point is like when you think about that part of that creates a situation where if you're going to commit to it, you can feel confident in that commitment as a consumer because you're not dealing with a commoditization where if you're thinking about buying something that is available in 200, do you understandably might start thinking about, well, where can I get it the fastest, the cheapest, like all of those things which diminishes brand value because it diminishes the net profitability of a product which ultimately leads to what we're talking about here with revenue being down year over year. So essentially if you zoom all the way out, having that strong point of view, making watches that are at high quality, therefore the volume is, is, is rate limited. And doing that in a way where the, the fingerprint of the owner or the watchmakers and the brand with a network of sale points of sale that simply don't have a lot of inventory because it's not possible, it creates a much stronger fortress of an industry or a section of an industry than what you see in the mass market. Even if the total revenue numbers dwarf what you see from independence.
- [24:00]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, we get asked all the time by people and I get this, this question, it makes perfect sense of like, would we carry a larger group brand, a non independent brand? And, and generally, you know, look, I'll never say say never, but I think I, I usually say, look, here's the reason why we focus on independence and it's first of all the reason why we focus on watches and on independence. Like we're here doing truly what we love. This is our, this is a dream come true for us. We do this because we, we, we love it. We started this brand, this business as enthusiasts. This is our labor of love in life. This is what we chose for ourselves. And so the reason why we focus on independence from just a pure business standpoint is because it's a not commoditized product. There are lots of brands that we love and respect and you know, intellectually I would love, sure, I'd love to, to carry, I'll even give you an example of an independent, a brand that's independent, that we love and admire, whose watches we really like, whose people we really like and respect tremendously, which is Oris. We love the people at Oris, they make good watches and we've done a collaborative project with them. But part of the reason we won't carry a brand like Oris or other brands that are at that scale is because of the number of doors they have open and because of the amount of inventory that's available. And that's not to say that's a bad thing. But if we're making a choice around what we're going to carry and what we're not going to carry, I would rather carry something that's truly rare, that's not commoditized, where I'm not going to be answering phone calls multiple times a day of people shopping me versus the other retailer down the block carries them. It's just not a way I want to run my business. It's a much better way to run our business when we can have things that we either represent and, or stock that are rare, where we're not being cross shopped, where the, the value of the watch isn't being reduced to a price tag but is actually being sold on its, on its creativity and on its value.
- [26:08]
Asher Rapkin
Well, yeah, and there are some brands in, you know, that, that fit that description that do exist in holding companies. Right. So for example, Lange, you know, the product, the total production at Lange aligns more closely with what you'd see from an independent wash brand. The brand Persona aligns much more that know, Wilhelm Schmidt is also a known figure relative to that brand, you know, and his personality is same thing with his name escapes me right now. But like their head of watchmaking, you know, also, you know, is very well known in that community, very well regarded. I think about the same, you know, on the other side, even though I'm
- [26:44]
Gabe Riley
sure this just on Longa real quick, the reason why they've made the move to essentially pull their retailers and bring everything into their own company owned and operated boutiques is for the same reason they don't want their product commoditized.
- [26:55]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, exactly. And I was going to say, you know, on the other side of it, even though I'm sure, you know, at Swatch Group, you know, PR headquarters is a picture of my face with the throne darts at giving my opinions about, about some of the things this watch group does. But in fairness, that doesn't dissuade my own personal love and affection for Breguet as a brand. Yeah, and that's another one that has the, it has the potential to do that.
- [27:14]
Gabe Riley
Oh, we haven't. We have an office full of Breguet lovers at Collective.
- [27:18]
Asher Rapkin
Exactly. And I think like there's tons of potential there if that brand, if they, if that brand gets managed in a way that interestingly is more parallel to Lange, more parallel to the independence than parallel to Patek. And I was thinking about this too. I'm not entirely sure what the total production numbers are for Breguet. I'd have to imagine they're certainly significantly lower than what you would see from, you know, the more mass market brands at the Swatch Group. If they walk that parallel path, not only does it give them more creative opportunity, which they're already showing that they want to have it also I think puts their watches in a different light where it's like you're not comparing it against patents, you're comparing it really, you're looking at it Ideally, if they succeed on its own merits, which is where Lange succeeded. It's like a Lange is a Lange. You're not going to compare that to one thing or another because it's its own thing. And they did a really good job of that. And that applies very much in the world of independent watchmaking. If we're going to talk about, say, a Renault Tixier, that watch, it's its own thing. And if you want to compare it on its components, like saying, let's talk about the medi8 dart that's involved or let's talk about the finishing or what. Sure. You can compare and contrast that with other watches and, you know, you might be considering. But as the sum of its parts, it's its own thing.
- [28:35]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [28:35]
Asher Rapkin
And to me, like, that's really what. What makes an independent so fundamentally exciting. The whole thing. Rick's a great example of this, you know, like. Yeah, there's not a single person, not a single person who has reached out to us about a whole thing. Ricks who could care less about the movement in that watch.
- [28:51]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [28:52]
Asher Rapkin
Because it is so profoundly specific to itself.
- [28:57]
Gabe Riley
It doesn't look like anything.
- [28:58]
Asher Rapkin
And it's marching in that direction. And Breguet can do that if they wish to. Lange already has. And the independence that we've seen are effective in that the ones that aren't as effective and this goes back or may not be as effective. And this is why we go back to. As we get closer to watches and wonders. My eye being very, very, very closely trained on Moser. Moser absolutely has walked to the beat of its own drum since the day the Mehlons took it over. Yeah, without a doubt. But now they want to take that into the mainstream. So the question is, are they going to walk the walk of. Of Langa, which is like, you can't compare us to anything because we're us, or are they going to try to position themselves competitively against other space, you know, other folks in that. In that set.
- [29:40]
Gabe Riley
Yep.
- [29:41]
Asher Rapkin
And have a different conversation. I don't know. But I'm very interested in that because we're talking about how mass market aligns with indies. They are the one standout to a degree that are saying, well, we want to align with the mainstream. I'm really interested to see how that works in reverse.
- [29:54]
Gabe Riley
Well, I think what we're saying about the success of independence here is it's all the usual stuff, of course, and it's being rewarded by collectors for all the usual reasons. We talk about the creativity, the risk taking all that stuff. Great watches delivering value. The other reason, just from a business structure. On the last episode we talked about about and we'll talk about micro brands next, the unique economics of Christopher Ward and how that's a big part of the formula that set them up for success. Part of the unique formula for these indies is they've created a business structure. Their unique economics here is they have a business structure that is not commoditized. And this is what you're talking about with Lange as well, even as mainstream brand. But it's not commoditized. It's not like an Omega or to some extent even a Rolex that's in any authorized dealer around the world. And on Rolex, you could debate, maybe certain models are commodities, others aren't, whatever, but a Longa certainly isn't a commodity. A Czapek is not a commodity. An MB and F is not a commodity. And so this will be the challenge for Moser is you take away one leg of the stool as they move to a mass market brand, right? Because you're saying, okay, you're an independent. Part of your success has been your creativity, your humor, your swagger, your fun, your personality. For sure, 100 now you're bringing that with you. But one leg of the stool that you're leaving behind or choosing to jettison is this commodity aspect. You haven't been a commodity and now the more you scale, the more watches you produce, the more doors you're in. As you adapt your business, its economics, its distribution, your marketing and all of that, you become closer to being a commodity. And so they lose that competitive aspect of their business model. Now, now maybe a brand like that is singular and all they need is their creativity to succeed, right? So we'll see. It's fascinating. Keep an eye on them. Let's chat about micro brands because this is another segment of the market that is doing incredibly well and winning right now. And it's funny, the whole genesis of this podcast topic was I was scrolling through Instagram and I was seeing that our friends at Warren and Wound were getting ready for their Dallas windup show, which is.
- [32:12]
Asher Rapkin
Let's pause for a second. Do you think that Christopher Ward is a micro brand? Because I don't.
- [32:17]
Gabe Riley
Hey, it's Gabe. Openwork is proudly ad free and requires no paid subscription. If you'd like to support the show, please take a moment to subscribe, rate and review on your podcast platform of choice. Please also check out and subscribe to collective horology on YouTube where you'll find Hundreds of videos we've made on independent watchmaking. You can find our channel@collativephorology.com and of course, you can always support the podcast by picking up a watch from over a dozen independent brands along with our Latest merch@colusive horology.com thanks for listening and for your support. Now back to the show. I'm going to chat about why I'm including them. I think for the purpose of. Well, let me answer this question. Do I think Christopher Ward is. Is a micro brand? I would say spiritually, yes. From an operations standpoint, no. They have their own manufacturing. It's a business at a bigger scale than a micro brand. I don't know that I would call them an independent brand. They're very focused on a segment of the market where their competitors are primarily brands in the sub $5,000 segment and other micro brands. And that's the kind of the lane that they play in. Is the operation and the structure and the scale of their business a quote, micro brand? No, probably not. But I think spiritually, they are. Going back to what I was saying about Windup. I'm seeing that Windup is happening the weekend that we're recording here in Dallas, and I'm thinking to myself, man, how cool. We hear all the time from listeners and customers that, you know, everyone's had enough of price increases. And it feels like the watch market is running away and watch prices are running away. We talked so much about the Omega Speedmaster. You know, we were talking the other day at lunch about pricing of a Speedmaster and couldn't believe how expensive it is now. Then you show up at Windup and you enter a room full of all these brands. So much creativity and reasonable price points and what a. What a palate cleanse. How refreshing. How fun. It would be awesome to walk into that room with some money burning in my pocket and see what kind of damage I could do. And Christopher Ward is one of the brands in that room. So I think we could split hairs around. Is Christopher Ward a microbrand? But I think they're doing what a lot of the micro brands are doing, which is they are absolutely part of the reason so many of the brands you mentioned in that sub $5,000 category are down and struggling is because Christopher Ward and the micro brands are taking the piss out of their business.
- [34:52]
Asher Rapkin
Okay, so I'm going to push back on that because I actually think that Christopher Ward is 100% an independent. They're just a sub $5,000 independent. And I'm going to use A rubric for how I separate the two.
- [35:04]
Gabe Riley
Okay, cool.
- [35:05]
Asher Rapkin
Which is, I think.
- [35:06]
Gabe Riley
Here we go. Pedantic podcast territory. What's an independent brand and what's a microbrand? It a matter of time before the great debate, but sure, let's.
- [35:16]
Asher Rapkin
It's taking me a long time to come to this, and I've beaten it up in my head, but I really think this is the difference. I think a micro. I think the difference between a microbrand and independent is clarity of vision. And here's what I mean. Is Brew a microbrand or an independent?
- [35:30]
Gabe Riley
I don't know.
- [35:31]
Asher Rapkin
I think they're an independent. And the reason why I think they're a micro brand, I think they're. You should look at their revenue. My point on this is I think that they.
- [35:38]
Gabe Riley
I don't define it by revenue. So maybe we have different definitions.
- [35:43]
Asher Rapkin
I'm sure we do. Everyone, I'm talking about my definition of the difference. To me, Brew, if nothing else, Jonathan is walking in the same direction with very little standard deviation, you know, with a clarity of what he's trying to do.
- [35:58]
Gabe Riley
So your point about maturity, and I think what you meant by that was, like, clarity of vision.
- [36:02]
Asher Rapkin
Exactly. When we look at Christopher Ward. Christopher Ward, you know, different than Brew, of course, because Brew really has a much tighter product line. Christopher Ward's very expansive product line, but they have a very clear idea of what they're trying to accomplish. Right. Like they're trying to make these watches.
- [36:16]
Gabe Riley
Well, I don't think Chris Rourd has any less of a clear point of view than Brew.
- [36:20]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, I'm just saying. But it's just a much broader product line, but same deal, you know, fears. Good example. Are they an independent or are they a micro brand? They're an independent. Because if nothing else, Nicholas has steered that company with a absolute, you know, sharp clarity of what he wants it to be.
- [36:35]
Gabe Riley
Elegantly understated, man.
- [36:36]
Asher Rapkin
Exactly. Where it starts to become a micro brand to me is where you're more like Baltic. Baltic independent. You know, another example of this, like, very clear clarity of thought. You know, we can go down the whole list of, you know, and sort one way or the other. But my point is, and I'm not making a value judgment, because here's the other side of it.
- [36:54]
Gabe Riley
So what's an example of a micro brand, then?
- [36:56]
Asher Rapkin
Oh, God, I'm gonna get flamed for this, aren't I?
- [36:59]
Gabe Riley
I don't know. I'm just. I'm like, curious if. If I would say Baltic is a micro brand, I would Say brew is a mic. And I, I, I, I view the term so many people have talked about, like, oh, micro brand is this, like, you know, this terrible term. It's offensive. I say it with, with, with love and affection.
- [37:15]
Asher Rapkin
I, I, I don't think it's, it's, it's a pejorative term. I think it's a very different kind of product that you're exploring in a micro brand. Because to me, micro brands are, are at the cutting edge of like, experimental. What I mean by that is like, they'll take a hard left or a hard right and try something completely new that maybe will help them ultimately down the long term define who they are, you know, as a brand. So like, like, I'm trying to think of a good example of this.
- [37:43]
Gabe Riley
What about Studio Underdog? Were they a micro brand when they launched the Watermelon Watch and did they become an independent brand when they created their second watch? Like, I think probably.
- [37:55]
Asher Rapkin
I think that's actually a great example because I think Studio Underdog started as a micro brand in the sense that Richard is, again, a profoundly creative person. And I think that he, like the name, tells you, right? Studio Underdog. The idea was, I'm going to create all sorts of stuff.
- [38:12]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [38:12]
Asher Rapkin
You know, I am a designer. I have a creative studio, creative studios, output, many different things.
- [38:18]
Gabe Riley
He's, oh, he literally started this, I think it was like an Instagram post or something where he posted the design of the Watermelon Watch and was like, should I make this right? But here's the thing to your point,
- [38:28]
Asher Rapkin
inherently, he happened to like, you know, take one swing of the ax and the oil started spurting out of the ground, you know, unintentionally and then. But he was also smart enough and capable enough as a designer and a business owner to develop that into, yeah, that's impressive. Totally. So independent clarity of vision. Started as a micro brand. I don't think, I don't think it's like, I don't think you graduate, so to speak, to being an independent. You can be profoundly successful as a micro brand. To me, it's just, you know, are
- [38:56]
Gabe Riley
you, you have yet to name an Indo micro brand.
- [38:59]
Asher Rapkin
Because I don't want to insult somebody and have them.
- [39:01]
Gabe Riley
So you're saying it is a pejorative term?
- [39:03]
Asher Rapkin
No, I can saying that somebody might take it that way because I can certainly understand how somebody would be like, I'm not a micro brand, I'm an independent. And the way I'm looking at it is, is when I go up to your product line. And I sit there and I look at everything. Do I see a clarity of vision that is well articulated, or do I see, like 16 different watches? All of which might be really cool, and they're, they're tied together by your willingness to experiment and take risk, but they don't really, as a unified voice, say the same thing, which is why I'm not trying to call anybody out, because I might see it in one way, you know, and they might see it very differently. I'm just talking about how I internally look at that.
- [39:41]
Gabe Riley
Okay, so let's say for the purpose of this segment of the old podcast here, that maybe the show notes say micro brands, but what I'm really talking about here is a segment of the market from a business standpoint that maybe includes micro brands, that includes these independent sub $5,000. We could call them challenger brands.
- [40:03]
Asher Rapkin
Oh, look at you.
- [40:04]
Gabe Riley
You know, okay, these are the brands that, whether that, you know, they have a manufacturer like Christopher Ward or, or, or even studio Underdog at this point in time. They have their own manufacture now, their own assembly in Britain, the Doghouse, which I, which I love, but they certainly started as literally a studio. So whether you're a studio or a manufacturer or whatever it is, you're a challenger brand. You are taking the piss out of the established players in this category. And I think a big driver of the reason why some of these brands, whether it's Tissot, whether it was Mito, whether it was Bauman, Mercier or whomever it might be, one of the big reasons they're struggling is because, like the independents, the micro brands are gaining market share. They are gaining. And again, like people all the time say, oh, well, they're a rounding error on the market. But in terms of mindshare, they're not a rounding error. These are brands that are on the tip of every collector's tongue. And they are a huge reason why I think the, the, the, the, the established brands are suffering in this segment, and I think it's only going to get harder. You talked about the fact that, you know, hey, look, some competition here is a good thing, right? Like if brands like a Christopher Ward can really give, say, a Longines run for its money, like that's a good thing for Longines because it forces them to up, up their game. Recently announced, we didn't cover this on the podcast yet. Solis is upgrading a number of their calibers. I think it's like the SW2 or 300, whatever their time, only core movement is. It's going to now have 65 hours of power reserve. That's a huge jump. And that I think makes it competitive obviously with in house movements from, or movements from like Kinesi and Rolex also with competitive with movements from Le Joux Parret. So Sellita, and we've talked about this in the past, is an engine of so much of this creativity. So much of what we just talked about would not be possible without them.
- [42:04]
Asher Rapkin
And I'm wearing a Solita powered watch right now.
- [42:08]
Gabe Riley
Right now, hey, I'm wearing a Valjoux 7750, another an ETA product. They are only going to make the value proposition for these challenger brands more compelling and they're going to make it harder for the group brands who are competing in the same segment to compete. So it's getting tougher. And know, gosh, if I think about, you know, looking at why Sellita is upgrading their core movement at a time when I don't know if ETA is or, or, or isn't, I would imagine a big part of the demand for Solita's business is from these Challenger brands, from these micros and indies under under $5,000. And part of the reason they're offering this strategically is to give those customers a leg up in the market.
- [42:53]
Asher Rapkin
I'll put you this way. I don't know if it's a outsized portion because Solita movements are just so, you know, perv market. But what I can tell you is
- [43:02]
Gabe Riley
well, it's a significant piece of their business. I think these, these brands.
- [43:05]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah. But I, I would still reframe it slightly. I, I suspect that for Solita, when we look at these Challenger brands collectively, so to speak.
- [43:12]
Gabe Riley
You like the Challenger brand?
- [43:13]
Asher Rapkin
I like that one because it's inclusive. But when we talk about like the challenger brands bucket, it might not be an out as outsized as some of the major market brands are, but it's probably growing faster.
- [43:23]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [43:24]
Asher Rapkin
I could see for example how you know, every year they're picking up another client that's ordering 200, 300, 400 calibers and then that client 800 the next year or a thousand the year after. And that percentage growth probably significantly higher than whatever they would be retailing to, you know, a brand at Richemont for example, that's using a Solita movement which is maybe ordering in a higher quantity, you know, but, but the quantity stays.
- [43:50]
Gabe Riley
I think they're also starting to see some of their orders go to Le Joux parade. So many a lot of these brands that some of them that fierce is a good example. And there are others have moved to Le Joux Paris movement. Speaking of that 65 hour power reserve and other things. So I would imagine if you're Sellita, you're, you're saying to yourself, yeah, this has been a meaningful and growing part of our business year over year. And by the way, one of the only parts segments of our customers who are growing while some of the larger group orders are going down. We, we need to be competitive. And so this is good for the
- [44:20]
Asher Rapkin
industry but it's also more profitable too because if you think about minimum order quantity.
- [44:23]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [44:24]
Asher Rapkin
If you're ordering 200 movements or 300 movements, you're going to be paying more than if you're ordering 10,000 or 20,000 movements per generation on it probably. So I would wager that it might be a smaller community of people that are more profitable and growing faster than the larger accounts that are probably going to come to you and be like if I'm going to buy 100,000 calibers from you, sure you have the pressure of knowing that you're, that you know, you providing those calibers dramatically impacts my business. But I also know that my 100,000 piece order is not to be trifled with. And that creates probably a pretty intense negotiation I would imagine. Imagine.
- [44:57]
Gabe Riley
Yeah. All right. So within this Challenger brand space, do you think that the continue. You know, again I think a lot of the drivers of the success of this segment are similar from a collector standpoint to the independent creativity risk. Taking a lot of value being offered, price point being more reasonable. Is this a trend that you think has room to run? Can it keep, is it going to keep going or do you think by
- [45:26]
Asher Rapkin
that like do I think that there's space for more Challenger brands or do you think that there's.
- [45:30]
Gabe Riley
That we're going to see this segment of the market continue to perform well? A and B, are they going to continue to take share from the more established brands in the $5,000 segment?
- [45:40]
Asher Rapkin
Regarding point A. Well, do I think they'll continue? Yeah, absolutely. Because what we're talking about are brands that speak to the very top of like the, the, the consumer pyramid here. Like these are enthusiast driven products through and through to people who consume at multiple price points. People don't just buy micro brands because that's what they can afford. That's, I'm sure that's a segment of it. But people buy micro brands because they're excited or independent or challenges or whatever because they, because we see so much, you know, risk taking creativity and innovation in that space. So to answer your question, a yes,
- [46:12]
Gabe Riley
yeah, there's an established brand offering at every price point for a challenger or micro brand. You could buy a Seiko, a Citizen, a Hamilton, what, whatever.
- [46:20]
Asher Rapkin
Here's what I don't know though. And I don't think either of us can, can guess this, which is okay, but how big can that tent really get? Which is really the, the question here because there's two ways that that can go, right. We think of it as a, if we think about that pyramid again, either the, either the pyramid itself gets bigger, meaning that the percentage at the top of, of enthusiasts grows by, by a factor of the entire market growing or if there's the other side of it, which is what you're talking about, which is, is, well, is it going to start consuming, not necessarily growing in terms of a larger tent, but it's going to start consuming people who had a more mass market watch in mind, you know, and some of these, some of these brands I think have it both ways and have thought about it like this, like G Shock, Oris, you know, these are brands that for a long time have had their foot in both sides of this, both the enthusiast side and the mass market side. And they've really, you know, they've really done a great job of talking to both of those audiences without alienating the other. So I think kudos to both of those brands for what they've accomplished there. Sake. Seiko, my God, yeah, of course.
- [47:24]
Gabe Riley
Talk about fan service.
- [47:26]
Asher Rapkin
Absolutely. You know, but also talk about mass market. I mean in the time that we've been talking, you know, Seiko filled this room with watches, you know what I mean? But my point is like, but those are, those are really. Except those are kind of exceptions to the rule who. And they've been doing it for decades, you know, decades. Certainly with Seiko, maybe less so with Oris, you know, and G Shock Shock, but certainly ever since day one of the wind up watch fair. Yeah. So my point is I don't know if it will become a consum, like if it'll consume mass market or if the tent will just grow, but I'm pretty confident it's not going to shrink.
- [47:58]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, I was, I'll give you my last thought on this one. I was scrolling through Instagram the other day and I don't know how, why this was served to me, but I was, it was funny.
- [48:07]
Asher Rapkin
What was served to you?
- [48:09]
Gabe Riley
It was a clip from Steve O's podcast. Good old Steve O of Jackass Ass. He's Got a podcast, apparently. I got a clip from his podcast. He was interviewing Mark McGrath of Sugar Ray. Yeah, and it's Something is in the water because a day later I was scrolling through Instagram reels again. I got served another video of Sugar Ray, the algorithm at. At work. But Mark, Good old Mark McGrath.
- [48:34]
Asher Rapkin
What was the big Sugar Ray song?
- [48:36]
Gabe Riley
Was it. Oh, every day, I think.
- [48:38]
Asher Rapkin
Oh, yeah, yeah, he talked a little bit about that.
- [48:41]
Gabe Riley
He had a heart. Heart rendering story on that one. But in any event. So he had this really interesting. He made this interesting theory. I think he used to work on like, Extra or Access Hollywood or something like that. Wasn't he like one of the hosts of one of these, like, shows?
- [48:54]
Asher Rapkin
Really?
- [48:55]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, yeah, he was. He was talking about. Yeah, there you go. He was talking about how the. The power of celebrity has really changed. And this was like a really thoughtful, thoughtful comment. He was basically saying, you know, look, celebrities and culture used to be everything. I mean, remember you'd go to the supermarket and there'd be People magazine and Us Weekly, and it's like, oh, sure, the world revolved around celebrities. And celebrities talk about mindshare and power and aura. I mean, like, celebrities were this fixture of culture. They exist on this pedestal. They were our equivalent of royalty or like the Greek gods kind of thing. And social media has taken them down a peg. And he's like. Because now a celebrity, literally, this was his example. He's like a celebrity is competing with a guy on YouTube who's making videos about his worm farm. And people find that interesting and tune into that. And that's really taken celebrities down a peg. And they're far less relevant. And that got me thinking about one of the things we've always said is this moat that a lot of these established brands have, which is the power of their brand and the power of luxury. Sure. And. And I think the same thing is true here. And the challenger brands, micros, independents, whatever, are, are. Are showing this, which is because of the way media and the media landscape has evolved. The power of a brand has changed and been taken down a peg too. Now, there are still some brands that, of course, are incredibly valuable. A great example. And there. There are others. But so much of what mainstream watch brands and luxury brands have relied on to build the power of their brand and their mystique and their value is traditional media, magazine spreads, placement, billboards, placement on the Oscars or whatever it might be. And those things, those tools are becoming less and less relevant. And what's becoming more and more relevant is Social media is upstarts, is creativity, is it all the things that micro's independent and challenger brands stand for. So to me, when I think about like can this run continue? I think it might only accelerate because
- [51:15]
Asher Rapkin
what you're talking about is, is, is a shift away from gatekeeping to a much more egalitarian structure. I mean like that if you, if you put all of the, of the garbage about the Internet as side of which there is plenty.
- [51:28]
Gabe Riley
Sure.
- [51:29]
Asher Rapkin
One of the best things that has ever come out from the digital world is exactly what you're describing that you don't, you can create your own platform. I mean this is a perfect example. Like you can create your own platform. That, that is an entire media ecosystem unto itself without permission. Now there are other challenges there. You know, you become reliant on tech companies like blah, blah, blah, all these other challenges, of course, but it is definitely way more egalitarian. I mean especially if you, if you look at it like moving out of watches, I guess still actually with watches. Look at, look at the impact of substack right now just on the world. So I'm with you. The thing that I just come back to is within that pyramid, right? Is it going to get bigger or are we just gonna get to see it more, get more crowded and therefore more competitive?
- [52:18]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, I don't, I think, my point,
- [52:19]
Asher Rapkin
I don't know that those things are mutually exclusive.
- [52:21]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, my point, I, I don't know about that. But my point is I think the established brands are only gon to be more and more under threat. If you are sitting in your ivory tower in Switzerland at the Richemont Group, at one of the Maisons or the Swatch Group or wherever, and you're saying to yourself all of these micro brands are totally irrelevant. They're a rounding error. We have a brand, we have something that they don't have, which is a brand. We are luxury. You better check yourself because the foundation on which you built your brand and that luxury is slowly crumbling because it was done so on largely on traditional media and in a culture and at a time that is very different from the one we live in now. And unless you're prepared to make your brand relevant in a new media landscape, which is going to be tough to do, you're going to be competing against these upstarts who were born in that world and know how to do it in their sleep, watch out.
- [53:20]
Asher Rapkin
We should bring back a guest that we had a few a little over a year ago. Talk to us about, remember fashion? Remember this conversation I would love to bring her back.
- [53:29]
Gabe Riley
Oh, Catherine Zarella.
- [53:31]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, super cool person. I'd love to bring her back because I'd love to look at the, because I think fashion and watches actually exist in parallel paths.
- [53:38]
Gabe Riley
They use a lot of the same playbooks.
- [53:40]
Asher Rapkin
Well, they do. And, and, and, and there's, there is, there are similar structures, there are independent designers. You know, there are people look like the parallels are quite significant.
- [53:48]
Gabe Riley
Fashion, fashion brands were built on old media. Yeah.
- [53:52]
Asher Rapkin
And, but, but what I'm saying is like the architecture of the current market is, is similar. And what I would love to look at, there are some like fashion brands or, or I should just say like you know, haute couture brands that have managed to stay relevant in this particular, in this, in this pivot, in this shift. You know, and I would love to examine that because I think there's a lot that we can learn just by looking at that parallel business business and saying, you know, and identifying like what's happening there. How has that evolved and what can we take away from it? Because fashion, similar to watchmaking, it can move in a direction a little bit faster than other luxury sectors like automotive, for example, where the R and D on automotive is so long. And even though R and D on watchmaking is long, it's not like automotive.
- [54:41]
Gabe Riley
No, no, no.
- [54:42]
Asher Rapkin
And fashion of course, same deal. It's even faster than watchmaker. So there's, there's an. I think there, I think with watchmaking being in the middle there, there is something there for us to learn and I'd love to go back and revisit that, especially in the context of what we're talking about here.
- [54:54]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, would be fascinating. It's, it's a crazy time. We live in finals. Speaking of not times we live in, the final segment of the market that's doing really well is vintage and in particular within vintage. What's really winning right now is Neo vintage. And this pisses me off man, because this was my collecting lane for, for so long. You know, the, the incredible watches of the 90s and the, and the early 2000s. In fact, I'm wearing an IWC 3706 watch and this watch, great watch, actually falls exactly into this trend around what's working in, in Neo vintage. So what's so compelling about Neo vintage is one with vintage and pre owned watches you get obviously a ton of ton of ton of value. We've talked in the past on this podcast that Gen Z in particular is more likely to buy watches pre owned than new big driver of that is taste, but certainly a big driver of that is economics. If you're young, that's what you can afford. But the other thing is proportions. So the watch I'm wearing is an IWC pilot's chronograph, but it's 38 millimeters and so forth from, from this era, from this neo vintage era. Certainly you have lots of great options around smaller and shaped watches. Cartier does incredibly well. Other other brands are doing incredibly well who are in the smaller shaped watch category. But even some of the, you know, the more mainstream brands have smaller cases, more refined lines, more wearable watches. Like, you know, even if you look at Rolex, you know, sure, a one of our favorite watches, the 14060 Submariner, it's thinner and it is, has thinner lugs.
- [56:42]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, it's got ergonomics that I prefer for sure.
- [56:45]
Gabe Riley
It's just a, it's a thinner, smaller, more wearable watch at 40 millimeters than its current day counterpart. So there's just a tremendous amount of value. But there's these neo vintage watches are almost more relevant to today's taste than some of the watches that are currently in production and available. And so in particular within the neo vintage category, the brand level winner. So if you look on say Chrono 24 and some of these other platforms, Cartier is doing incredibly well. Vacheron Constantin is doing incredibly well. IWC is doing incredibly well. If you think about the pilots, even the Ingenieur from the neo vintage era are doing really well. If you think about the stuff that's doing well. Well, it's these things that have these more refined proportions relative to what's available today. Also growing interest in vintage Omega, jlc, Breguet and Early Lange, both in terms of value and also their ergonomics, their wearability and their design relative to what's available today. I saw one of the members of our team, Jimmy English, he showed up to work yesterday, we wearing a 38 millimeter titanium Blancpain chronograph from the early 2000s. Yeah, that's a great watch, really cool watch and like such a vibe and not just a vibe, but again proportions that you just don't get from the current product. So the neo vintage stuff isn't just offering a cheaper alternative to what's available, it's offering a distinct alternative to what is available today. And you talked about the fact that watchmaking does not move very quickly while the brands are maybe not able to or not choosing to. And you talked about Blancpain as an Example of a brand that's stuck in the mud. They're not adapting their ergonomics and their watches for today's tastes and trends, particularly those of Gen Z. Well, guess what? The Neo vintage market will take care of that for them. So it's an area that's doing particularly well. I was looking at watch charts and I was looking at some of my favorite Rolex Neo vintage references from the late 90s and early 2000s. They're all up year on year. And a lot of people will say, well, that, you know, that's because of tariffs and watch prices overall, increasing the. The uptick for a lot of those mark watches. I looked at the 14060. I looked at the 16710, the GMT Master II. I looked at the 14270 Explorer. These are all more refined versions of what's available today. Their uptick predates tariffs. It goes back to January of 2025.
- [59:28]
Asher Rapkin
Oh, those were lovely, lovely days.
- [59:30]
Gabe Riley
Those were. Those sure were lovely on days. And this annoys me, though, because this is my favorite era of watch collecting. And, you know, for. For a long time, it was an area of extreme value where you could find these really cool watches that were kind of undiscovered, and now everyone's woken up to them. What. What am I supposed to do, man?
- [59:49]
Asher Rapkin
Buy an indie.
- [59:52]
Gabe Riley
Buy an indie. All right, any other thoughts on Neo? You're not really a Neo vintage guy. I mean, you. I think you like. No like that intellectually, but you don't really buy a to of vintage.
- [60:01]
Asher Rapkin
I mean, personally, I don't. Well, actually, that's not true. I mean, I bought a Neo vintage Vacheron like five months ago.
- [60:07]
Gabe Riley
Oh, okay.
- [60:07]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, you know, I'm very. I'm.
- [60:09]
Gabe Riley
And I see you're playing right into these trends. You're the guy who put the Vacheron number up year over year.
- [60:15]
Asher Rapkin
Yeah, no, I mean, I think. Yeah, that one sale. I mean, I think it depends, right? I mean, you're talking about like the, The. The bullseye of this, right? Which is like vintage Rolex, vintage Patek, Right. You know, well, like I said, it's
- [60:26]
Gabe Riley
Omega jlc, Breguet Lange. It's IWC cartoon.
- [60:32]
Asher Rapkin
All right, so nobody else go out and buy vintage Vacheron. That's all for me.
- [60:35]
Gabe Riley
Yeah, but it's. But what's cool about neo vintage, I think a lot of times, you know, certainly five years ago, if you said neo vintage, it was synonymous with Rolex for sure. Now when you say Neo vintage, all of These other brands come into. Come into the picture, which is cool.
- [60:52]
Asher Rapkin
And. And we're also approaching an era where there will soon be neo vintage independence in more. In more greater variety. Variety, which I think is also a kind of interesting thought. I guarantee you there are people who are scouring for, quote unquote, neo vintage urban Jurgensens from, like, the early 2000s. Yeah, 100%.
- [61:08]
Gabe Riley
Yeah. That's a great point.
- [61:10]
Asher Rapkin
You know?
- [61:10]
Gabe Riley
Yeah.
- [61:10]
Asher Rapkin
And I mean, there always were people looking for those, but it was like the cognoscenti. And now I think it's a much larger group of people that are, like, tuned into that sort of thing.
- [61:18]
Gabe Riley
Is that your insider tip? Start. Start hunting neo vintage urban.
- [61:22]
Asher Rapkin
Do not give stock or watch tips on this podcast. Yeah.
- [61:26]
Gabe Riley
All right. Aside to say that those watches are extremely cool and if that's your. Your thing.
- [61:30]
Asher Rapkin
Oh, yeah, those watches. Those watches are boss.
- [61:32]
Gabe Riley
Yeah. You once told me you were talking to a guy who bought his first watch, and he was like, what do I get?
- [61:38]
Asher Rapkin
And he bought an Urban Jurgensen. It was a modern one, but he did. Guy owns only one watch, and he owns an Urban Jurgensen. Interesting guy. Makes his own kombucha too, so paint your own pictures.
- [61:48]
Gabe Riley
Interesting. All right, well, how about we. How about we leave it there? Winners in a down market, man. Interesting stuff.
- [61:55]
Asher Rapkin
Managed to get a conversation in there,
- [61:56]
Gabe Riley
but Skokie and kombucha. All right, well, thank you so much for listening. Open Work is, of course, a production of Collective Horology. You can find us online@collective horology.com along with that secret watch from While you're. And while you're at it, make sure I got to remember to beep that one out. That's all the way at the end. Which one? Yes, that one. And of course, get in touch with all your. Your questions, comments, feedback, all that stuff. We love it. To do that, you can email podcastollectiveherology.com. Luxury.