Openwork: Inside the Watch Industry – Episode 72

Title: Unexpected Winners in a Down Market – Independents, Microbrands & Neo-vintage
Date: March 16, 2026
Hosts: Asher Rapkin & Gabe Riley (Collective Horology)

Episode Overview

In this insightful and candid episode, Asher Rapkin and Gabe Riley dive into an unexpected phenomenon: while the broader watch market faces significant declines, certain segments are not just surviving—they’re thriving. Focusing on independents, microbrands (or "challenger brands"), and the neo-vintage market, the hosts dissect why these niches are winning, what distinguishes them, and what established brands can—and should—learn from their momentum. Detouring through industry data, collector tastes, business models, and the evolving impact of media, this episode offers an unvarnished look at where true growth and excitement are happening in horology today.

Key Topics & Insights

1. The Watch Market's Downturn & Where Growth Really Is

• Current State: The global watch industry is in one of its most challenging periods in decades, especially for mainstream and volume brands in the sub-$5k segment.
• Key Downturns: Notable established brands—Longines, Swatch, Hamilton, Blancpain, Breguet, Panerai, Roger Dubuis, Zenith, Gerard Perregaux, and Franck Muller—have seen revenue fall by over 15% (05:59).
• Exceptions to the Rule: While luxury titans like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Richard Mille still dominate at the top, and Cartier surges, lesser-known "unexpected winners" are making real gains beneath the radar.

2. The Rise of Independent Watchmakers

• Collective's Growth: As authorized retailers of indie brands, the hosts note "our business continues to grow thanks to the strength of independent brands" (03:53).
• Parallels to Craft Beer: Gabe likens the resilience of independents to the craft beer market—a growing, innovative edge even as the overall sector contracts (03:53).
• Creativity as Currency: Independents thrive on risk-taking, design innovation, low production, and a clear personal vision—unlike many stagnant group-owned brands (09:22, 20:26).
• Mindshare Matters: Google Trends data shows a surge in search and interest for brands like MB&F and F.P. Journe since 2021, reflecting genuine collector engagement, not just asset speculation (11:27, 13:15).
  • “There is a mind share around these brands that just didn’t exist five and certainly ten years ago.” – Gabe (09:53)

Notable Quotes

• “The tent has gotten a lot bigger...I think one thing that is indisputable is that the tent has gotten a lot bigger.” – Asher (04:42)
• “The independent brands are performing incredibly well. They're incredibly resilient and they're finding ways to continue to evolve their business and, in some ways, follow that same trend of premiumization we see in the market overall. But they're doing it for different reasons.” – Gabe (20:26)
• “When you think about that part of that creates a situation where if you're going to commit to it, you can feel confident in that commitment as a consumer because you're not dealing with a commoditization.” – Asher (22:53)

3. Premiumization & Evolution Among Independents

• Financialization vs. Enthusiasm: Some top-tier indies (e.g., F.P. Journe, MB&F, De Bethune) have become “financialized” with significant third-party investment, but many others—like Chapek—achieve growth through focused creativity, risk-taking, and enthusiast appeal (16:17, 18:06).
• Chapek Case Study: Now moving upmarket, Chapek sees rising average price points and increased attention on high-end pieces rather than entry models (19:53, 20:21).
• Scarcity & Non-commoditization: Limited production volumes, direct sales, and close retailer networks prevent indies from becoming commoditized, which protects both brand equity and buyer confidence (22:27, 24:00).

4. Challenger Brands & Microbrands: Defining a Growing Segment

• Microbrands vs. Independents?: Spirited debate over semantics—do microbrands become independents as they establish a coherent vision, or is the distinction irrelevant? The term “challenger brand” is suggested as a more inclusive label (35:04, 40:02).
  • “To me, microbrands are at the cutting edge of experimental…they’ll take a hard left or a hard right…” – Asher (37:15)
  • "Challenger brands…are taking the piss out of the established players in this category." – Gabe (40:03)
• Impact on Established Brands: These affordable, innovative sources of value are cannibalizing traditional volume brands like Tissot, Mido, Baume & Mercier (34:52, 40:02).
• Enablers of the Movement: Suppliers like Sellita and Le Joux Parret are upgrading their offerings (e.g., longer power reserves), empowering smaller brands to compete more robustly (42:03, 44:57).
• Enduring Trend?: The challenger/microbrand tent is growing—driven by enthusiastic collectors across price points, not just by cost-conscious buyers (45:40, 46:11).

Notable Quotes

• “What we're really talking about here is a segment of the market from a business standpoint that maybe includes micro brands, that includes these independent sub $5,000…We could call them challenger brands.” – Gabe (40:02)
• “Because of the way media and the media landscape has evolved, the power of a brand has changed and been taken down a peg too.” – Gabe (50:59)

5. Media Disruption & Brand Power

• Brand Moats Diminishing: Traditional brand power, built atop magazine ads and celebrity placements, is eroding; media democratization via social platforms puts upstarts on equal footing (48:08, 50:59).
  • “The power of a brand has changed and been taken down a peg.” – Gabe (50:59)
  • “…what you’re talking about is a shift away from gatekeeping to a much more egalitarian structure.” – Asher (51:14)
• Parallel with Fashion: Discussion about the analogous journey in fashion, where new players have upended established houses by using the new media playbook (53:29).

6. Neo-vintage: The Pre-owned & Vintage Market Rises

• Gen Z Drives Change: Younger collectors increasingly buy pre-owned; economic pressures and taste drive a surge in neo-vintage interest, especially ‘90s and early 2000s references (54:54).
• Why Neo-vintage Wins: Offers both distinct design alternatives (smaller sizes, refined proportions) and value compared to modern production; brands excelling include Cartier, Vacheron, IWC, Omega, JLC, Breguet, early Lange (56:44).
  • “Neo vintage watches are almost more relevant to today’s taste than some of the watches that are currently in production.” – Gabe (56:44)
• Data Points: Prices of desirable neo-vintage models (e.g., Rolex 14060, 16710 GMT, 14270 Explorer) are up year-on-year, with the trend predating 2025 tariffs (59:27).
• Indies Will Follow: The emergence of “neo-vintage” independent watches (e.g., early Urban Jurgensen) is forecasted as collectors widen their scope (60:52).

Memorable Moments and Quotes

The Opening Challenge:

• "If you are sitting in your ivory tower in Switzerland at the Richemont Group, at one of the Maisons or the Swatch Group or wherever, and you're saying to yourself, 'all of these micro brands are totally irrelevant…' You better check yourself because the foundation on which you built your brand and that luxury is slowly crumbling."
  — Gabe (00:00 & echoed 52:20)

The Microbrand/Independent Debate:

• “Here we go. Pedantic podcast territory. What's an independent brand and what's a microbrand?” – Gabe (35:04)
• “To me, micro brands are at the cutting edge of experimental…they'll take a hard left or a hard right and try something completely new that maybe will help them ultimately down the long term define who they are.” – Asher (37:15)

On Creativity and Brand Personality:

• “One of the other things we can look at is just mind share, and there is a mind share around these brands that just didn't exist five and certainly ten years ago.” – Gabe (09:53)

On Neo-vintage:

• "Neo vintage watches are almost more relevant to today's taste than some of the watches that are currently in production." – Gabe (56:44)

Timestamps & Noteworthy Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Quote | |-----------|--------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | The established luxury brand’s crumbling brand advantage | | 03:53 | Why independents are likened to craft beer in a shrinking market | | 04:42 | Expansion and rising mindshare of independent brands | | 05:59 | List of established brands down 15%+ in revenue | | 09:22 | Why indies win: creativity, risk-taking, perceived value | | 11:27 | Google Trends data: MB&F’s rise in mindshare | | 13:15 | Third-party investment in top indies (MB&F, Journe, De Bethune) | | 19:53 | Chapek’s trajectory and shift to higher price points | | 22:27 | Non-commoditized structure as indie advantage | | 34:52 | How challenger brands hurt traditional sub $5k brands | | 40:02 | Redefining ‘microbrand’ — challenger brands take hold | | 42:03 | Sellita upgrades and the engine of microbrand competition | | 50:59 | Media disruption: the diminishing moat of brand power | | 54:54 | Neo-vintage market: what’s booming and why | | 56:44 | Neo-vintage offers design/value unavailable today | | 59:27 | Data: Neo-vintage price rise predates 2025 tariffs | | 60:52 | The coming of neo-vintage independents | | 61:54 | Wrap-up & closing thoughts |

Conclusion

Key Takeaway:
While the mainstream watch market contracts, independent makers, challenger brands, and the pre-owned/neo-vintage segment are gaining in appeal, market share, and mindshare. Creativity, risk-taking, scarcity, and authentic connection with collectors—fueled by a changing media landscape—have upended traditional brand power.

Those still resting on old media and legacy branding need to “check themselves”—the new winners in watches are defined by agility, authenticity, and innovation.

For a deeper dive, watch the full episode or explore more at collectivehorology.com.