OPERATORS Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: "Your $175B Tariff Refund Checklist With Ryan Petersen, Flexport CEO"

Date: March 13, 2026
Hosts: Mike Beckham, Sean Frank ("Operators")
Guest: Ryan Petersen (CEO, Flexport)

Overview

This episode dives deep into the recent Supreme Court decision impacting US tariffs, notably the massive opportunity for refunds following the overturning of a specific tariff authority. Ryan Petersen, Flexport’s CEO, joins the Operators to unpack what brands should do now to claim these refunds, what pitfalls to avoid, and how the logistics and AI landscape is evolving for eCommerce brands. The discussion also branches into the ongoing trade challenges related to Iran, volatility in global shipping, and the transformative role of AI in business operations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Tariff Refund Windfall: What Happened and Who Benefits?

• Tariff Law Overturned: The Supreme Court struck down the President’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (AIPA) for tariffs, opening up $175 billion in potential refunds for affected importers.
  • “We have pretty high level of conviction, certainty that you'll get the refund and it's $175 billion. Oh, and by the way, you also are going to get 6% interest on your money.” — Ryan Petersen [00:19, 12:13]
• Not All Tariffs Gone: Only a particular class of tariffs (AIPA) was affected. Tariffs under sections 232 (steel & aluminum), 301 (China), and 122 (temporary 10–15%) remain or may reappear under new guise.
  • “If you're not in the industry and you just read headlines, what you just heard is that tariffs are now illegal. What you're saying and explaining to everybody is that one very small slice of the tariff pie got overturned.” — Sean Frank [00:06, 32:10]

Clarifying Tariff Structures [06:19, 06:49]

• Section 232: National security tariffs (steel, aluminum, recently furniture).
• Section 301: China-specific tariffs, still upheld.
• Section 122: Temporary tariffs, capped at 15% for 150 days—currently at 10%, may rise.

Refund Process Checklist [01:48, 04:47, 17:47, 20:12]

1. Calculate Refund Owed
   • Download your “ES003” entry summary report from the ACE US government system.
   • Upload to tariffs.flexport.com for a free, instant assessment.
   • “Flexport has built a great tool for this. It’s free… we've done about three and a half billion of calculations in the last two weeks.” — Ryan [01:48]
2. Prepare ACH Details in ACE
   • Ensure bank account info is set for ACH; refund arrives electronically, not via check.
   • Security Alert: Set tight controls—fraud is possible.
   • “They're not going to send you a check... Make sure you've got control over which bank account this money is going to flow to.” — Ryan [01:48]
3. File Corrections or Protests
   • Before “liquidation” of entries: File a “post summary correction” or protest to secure refunds efficiently.
   • After liquidation: You’ll need to join or bring a lawsuit.
   • “Once it hits liquidation, you have to file a lawsuit to get your refund. Whereas if you just go ahead and file a protest... you should under normal circumstances get your refund without needing any lawsuits.” — Ryan [01:48]
4. Consider Class Action
   • Many lawsuits filed; you may join one, but not every company needs to.
   • “There were 2,100 lawsuits challenging... that's part of why we're like, you probably don't need to file yet another lawsuit. If one company gets a refund, everybody's getting a refund.” — Ryan [22:06]
5. Celebrate the Lawsuit Winner
   • Shout-out to “Voss Selections” liquor store—the small business behind the winning suit.

2. Risks, Delays, and Politics

Will the Government Pay?

• Track record: Flexport has secured $900M+ in refunds for clients.
• Main risks: Bureaucratic delay (manual reviews), technical requirements, or political noncompliance.
  • “It's all, it all depends on this one guy named John who has to review every piece of paper. And John only works 9 to 5... so it's going to take us 100 years to file your thing. So that's a real risk.” — Ryan [17:47]
• New system: Paper checks replaced by ACH, reflecting expected surge in refunds.

Congressional Action Unlikely [23:12]

• Election-year gridlock means no legislative fix or clarity is expected before the next major tariff milestone.

3. Secondary Markets: Selling Your Refund

• Financial institutions are offering to buy refund claims for cash now, but rates are volatile:
  • Pre-ruling: 20–25 cents/dollar.
  • Post-ruling: up to 58–62 cents/dollar.
  • Many brands holding out for 70%.
  • Smaller claims (<$10M) are currently excluded from market activity, but Flexport hints at new solutions.
  • “Capitalism is just a beautiful thing... I think at 70% there's a lot of demand.” — Ryan [25:32]

4. Retailer Dynamics: Who Gets the Windfall?

• Big box retailers (Costco, Walmart) are already calling brands to discuss “sharing” refunds or price cuts.
• No legal obligation for DTC brands to pass refund, but retailers may use leverage.
  • “If I'm a DMM at Walmart, I'm like, hey, it's time to dial for dollars.” — Mike Beckham [28:02]

5. Ongoing Trade Uncertainty

• AIPA tariff refunds = one-off event. New rounds of tariffs are likely to reappear by July 2026 under sections 301/232, with 12+ Commerce investigations underway.
• More complex, sector-based, and country-specific tariffs expected; blanket authority weakened.
• “We're not out of the woods... It's not a simple math.” — Ryan [30:55]

6. Logistics After Iran & the Red Sea

Supply Chain Volatility [36:55, 39:13, 42:08]

• Iran/Red Sea conflicts: Persian Gulf closure affects oil much more than container freight.
• Red Sea is “the main thoroughfare”—35% of container traffic blocked by Houthi attacks.
• Air freight volatility: Middle East airlines (Emirates, Etihad, Qatar) temporarily grounded; prices spike, complex rerouting to avoid active conflict zones.
  • “There's a chart of all the airplanes flying, and they call it World War Three. Nobody's flying over Iran, flying over Ukraine, and nobody's flying over where the Houthis are in the Red Sea.” — Sean Frank [00:58, 42:08]
• Price swings: Small changes in ocean/air capacity result in outsized changes in shipping costs.
  • “You lose 15% capacity... you don't get like a 15% move in prices... It tends to be a lot more dramatic than that.” — Mike [43:01]

7. AI: The “Age of Wonder” Hits Logistics & Ecom

Transformational Use Cases [47:47, 50:04, 53:59]

• AI isn't just labor replacement; it's outperforming experts in tasks like customs compliance, audit, reporting, and more.
  • “The AI is not just free and cheap labor. It's way better than the experts are. I haven't been this excited about tech since I was a teenager.” — Ryan [00:52, 47:47]
• Flexport: Reduced error rate from 1.8% to 0.2% by auditing all customs entries with AI agents.
• Ridge: Rolled out “Victor” (an AI agent in Slack) to democratize access across the org, automating research, presentations, analytics, and more—even for non-technical staff.
• Fundamental shift: AI enables “junior” employees to work at a senior level and kills “busy work.”
  • “We're really entering the agent age... because it's in Slack everyone can use it, and that was the big game changer in an organization.” — Sean Frank [50:07]
• Example: Generating monthly licensing reports for leagues (NFL/MLB) dropped from 20 hours/month to 5 minutes.
• AI as a creative, business unlock: Rapidly authored, illustrated, and published a children's book entirely via AI tools.
  • “[AI] generated the prompt, it generated the script, it logged in... created the prompts... it figured the whole thing out and nailed it.” — Ryan [55:27]

Risks and Future Outlook [57:52, 59:19]

• AI's power increases exposure to security, data integrity, and operational risk.
  • “AI is making everybody a programmer, but without the security and optimization of the years of training.” — Sean Frank [00:42, 59:37]
• Large companies may become more brittle/regulatory-burdened; smaller brands can move faster, take more risk, and reap bigger rewards.
• Data and creative application—not just tech stack—will increasingly differentiate brands.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “We have pretty high level of conviction, certainty that you’ll get the refund and it’s $175 billion. Oh, and by the way, you also are going to get 6% interest on your money.” — Ryan Petersen [00:19, 12:13]
• “If you're not in the industry and you just read headlines, what you just heard is that tariffs are now illegal. What you're saying and explaining to everybody is that one very small slice of the tariff pie got overturned.” — Sean Frank [00:06, 32:10]
• “Flexport has built a great tool for this. It’s free… we've done about three and a half billion of calculations in the last two weeks.” — Ryan [01:48]
• “They're not going to send you a check... Make sure you've got control over which bank account this money is going to flow to.” — Ryan [01:48]
• “Once it hits liquidation, you have to file a lawsuit to get your refund. Whereas if you just go ahead and file a protest... you should under normal circumstances get your refund without needing any lawsuits.” — Ryan [01:48]
• “It's all, it all depends on this one guy named John who has to review every piece of paper... it's going to take us 100 years to file your thing. So that's a real risk.” — Ryan [17:47]
• “Capitalism is just a beautiful thing... I think at 70% there's a lot of demand.” — Ryan [25:32]
• “If I'm a DMM at Walmart, I'm like, hey, it's time to dial for dollars.” — Mike Beckham [28:02]
• “We're not out of the woods... It's not a simple math.” — Ryan [30:55]
• “There's a chart of all the airplanes flying, and they call it World War Three. Nobody's flying over Iran, flying over Ukraine, and nobody's flying over where the Houthis are in the Red Sea.” — Sean Frank [00:58, 42:08]
• “The AI is not just free and cheap labor. It's way better than the experts are. I haven't been this excited about tech since I was a teenager.” — Ryan [00:52, 47:47]
• “We're really entering the agent age... because it's in Slack everyone can use it, and that was the big game changer in an organization.” — Sean Frank [50:07]
• “AI is making everybody a programmer, but without the security and optimization of the years of training.” — Sean Frank [00:42, 59:37]

Key Timestamps

• 00:19 — Supreme Court ruling, scale of refund, and 6% interest
• 01:48 — Refund checklist from Ryan Petersen
• 06:19 — Types of tariffs and what’s really overturned
• 17:47 — Practical experience & risks with government refunds
• 22:06 — Class action lawsuits & who needs to sue
• 25:32 — The emerging secondary market for refund claims
• 28:02 — Retailer expectations post-tariff
• 30:55 — New tariffs likely to follow after July
• 36:55–43:01 — Logistics turmoil due to Iran and Red Sea
• 47:47–53:59 — How AI is revolutionizing compliance and operations
• 55:27 — Ryan automates children's book production via AI

Tone & Style

The conversation is direct, practical, and peppered with humor, industry war stories, and a healthy skepticism about bureaucracy and legacy systems. The hosts and guest speak as seasoned eCommerce and logistics operators, delivering both strategic and highly actionable advice in plain language.

For Operators and eCommerce Leaders

• Act quickly: Assess and claim your potential tariff refund using Flexport or similar tools.
• Monitor your portfolio: Stay vigilant about new tariff investigations and supply chain volatility.
• Leverage AI: Early adopters are seeing massive efficiency and accuracy gains—don’t get left behind.
• Cash windfall strategy: Think strategically about how to use or safeguard surprise inflows—prepare for big-box negotiations.
• Expect more change: Congressional deadlock, global conflicts, and generative AI mean this playbook will keep evolving.