Podcast Summary: Optimist Q&A—Evidence for UBI, Billionaires, and the Post-Trump Economy

Podcast: Optimist Economy
Hosts: Kathryn Anne Edwards & Robin Rauzi
Episode: Optimist Q&A: Evidence for UBI, What to Do About Billionaires, and Where Will the U.S. Economy Be After Trump?
Date: October 7, 2025

Overview

In this energetic and candid Q&A episode, economist Kathryn Anne Edwards and co-host Robin Rauzi address a wide swath of listener-submitted questions on economic policies and the future of the U.S. economy. The discussion covers the effectiveness of universal basic income (UBI) experiments, why legislative dollar amounts rarely index for inflation, impacts of tax cuts, tipped worker wages, the challenge of taxing billionaires, and expectations for the U.S. labor market after the Trump administration. The hosts bring humor, sharp analysis, and personal anecdotes, maintaining their signature optimistic—if somewhat irreverent—tone.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Effectiveness of UBI and Unconditional Cash Studies

[03:17 – 06:14]

• Question arises on current UBI studies and whether recent positive headlines mean the hosts should “rethink” their original skepticism.
• Kathryn: “Al, don't believe everything you read on the Internet. That's part one. That's always the answer.” [03:43]
• Most so-called UBI studies are actually unconditional cash welfare studies, not true UBI.
• Core findings: “Cash helps. It helps people in a lot of small ways because they use the cash differently... The three things that tend to... eat the cash are food, shelter, and utilities. Work effects are there, but small... It's not a cure all, but it's not a poison.” [05:26]
• There’s no single, sweeping transformative outcome—but evidence suggests direct cash support consistently reduces hardship.

2. Why Most Legislation Isn’t Indexed to Inflation

[06:16 – 08:41]

• Lawmakers may intentionally or unintentionally omit inflation indexing, often to keep the apparent cost of legislation lower.
• Example: Social Security benefit tax thresholds were set in 1983 and have not changed, intentionally allowing more people to be taxed over time.
• Kathryn: “So they get the political victory with the policy failure built in.” [07:32]

3. Budgeting Gimmicks and Tax Cuts

[08:41 – 11:40]

• The 2017 tax cuts were structured to appear less expensive by temporarily reducing taxes, planning to extend cuts before expiration.
• Medicaid and food stamp cuts were later used to offset the cost.
• Kathryn: “Frankly, they have written and passed these bills to try and get around the price tag, which is inevitable, which is that these tax cuts... cost $4.6 trillion.” [10:44]

4. Minimum Wage Exemptions and Tipping Culture

[11:40 – 17:56]

• Explains the economic and moral dilemmas around minimum wage exemptions for disabled, prison, and tipped workers.
• Ending exemptions (e.g., for disabled workers or prison labor) could be disruptive to certain industries but supported by those affected.
• Robin: “I'd love it. I like. Yep. Prison labor. Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope.” [13:40]
• Tipping culture: Originates in post-slavery dynamics, perpetuates inequality, and is now subject to consumer manipulation through tech and tip-skimming (e.g. Amazon cases).
• Kathryn: “Tipping definitely comes from slavery in the United States. But I don't know how the evolution of tipping culture would change if the US got rid of the tipped minimum wage. I don't know if anybody does.” [15:55]
• Future of tipping may depend on both social norms and regulatory/worker protections.

5. Universal Childcare and State Sovereign Wealth Funds

[18:01 – 19:53]

• The case of New Mexico funding universal childcare via its sovereign wealth fund is praised as ambitious but atypical.
• Kathryn: “Almost no other state has a sovereign wealth fund. And if they do, it’s already used for something else.” [18:14]
• Highlights the limitations most states face and why federal funding is necessary for broad implementation of big social programs.

6. Research Funding, Immigration Policy, and Innovation

[20:22 – 22:49]

• Ongoing research cuts, visa changes, and capricious treatment of scholars are eroding U.S. innovation and competitiveness.
• Kathryn: “This really does feel like we are taking one of our greatest strengths as a country and actively sabotaging it in real time.” [21:01]
• Historical context: U.S. has previously rebounded from anti-immigrant and anti-research waves; optimism remains that infrastructure persists and can be revived.

7. Political Economy Topics in Academia

[22:49 – 25:51]

• Listener asks if political economy research is discouraged in academia.
• Kathryn: “People who have or want PhDs are pretty stubborn, self-righteous people about their own intellect and curiosity... They're the most stubborn people I’ve ever met in my life.” [23:17, 24:53]
• While opportunists exist, most researchers are driven by their interests; political pressures may affect what’s said in class but not what’s studied.

8. Local Economic Policy Successes

[26:09 – 30:30]

• Much innovation happens at city or town level, often with small budgets and limited revenue sources.
• Kathryn: “Local governments have, like, little money, but also all the relationships in proximity. The federal government has all the money, but really few local relationships.” [27:52]
• Practical local solutions—like community SAT breakfasts—are celebrated, even if bigger problems need federal checks.

9. Social Security Tax Cuts During the Great Recession

[30:30 – 35:16]

• Social Security payroll tax was temporarily reduced post-2009 as a (somewhat covert) economic stimulus.
• Despite lower revenues, Social Security's structure protected the elderly from rising poverty in this period.
• Incremental paycheck increases (rather than one-off stimulus checks) were designed to ‘nudge’ spending upticks.

10. Taxing Billionaires and Wealth Concentration

[35:16 – 43:58]

• Comprehensive reforms are needed, starting with simple enforcement and robust IRS auditing.
• Kathryn: “Beyond redesigning the tax system, we should just collect what they owe.” [36:20]
• Wealthy individuals deploy enormous resources to avoid taxes; legislative loopholes (like in estate tax, capital gains) are exploited.
• Proposes targeted enforcement (“a billionaires department”), smarter law design to reduce incentives, and aggressive audits.
• On billionaires: Mixed feelings. Not inherently a problem, but “I think I have a problem with that being a result of exploiting weaknesses and unfairnesses in our economy.” [42:35]

11. What Lies Ahead for the U.S. Economy After Trump?

[43:58 – 50:01]

• Unlikely the U.S. will return to large-scale, low-wage manual manufacturing; manufacturing will use far fewer workers, most likely in engineering or automation support roles.
• Kathryn: “I think more likely we will be writing emails at a company that designed the robot that screws screws into iPhones... And less likely that we would be actually doing it.” [45:02]
• Addresses immigrant labor and the realities of “Made in America” branding.
• Offers a metaphor comparing U.S. economic policy to legal teams: “We're all on the trial team right now... but where I see the country going is the settlement team, the people who are... focusing on what actually has to happen. Not the fight, but the future.” [47:56]
• Long-term optimism remains, grounded in the belief that U.S. structures and capacity are resilient and will rebound post-crisis.
• Kathryn: “I'm not... hopeful that January 2029 is going to be a halcyon utopian time... but I know that 2040 will be better and 2050 will be, too.” [49:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On UBI studies:
  “Cash helps... It's not a cure all, but it's not a poison.” (Kathryn, [05:26])
• On legislative inflation adjustments:
  “They get the political victory with the policy failure built in.” (Kathryn, [07:32])
• On Medicaid and tax bill budgeting tricks:
  “They have written and passed these bills to try and get around the price tag, which is inevitable...” (Kathryn, [10:44])
• On tipping and wage history:
  “Tipping definitely comes from slavery in the United States.” (Kathryn, [15:55])
• On research politics:
  “They're the most stubborn people I've ever met in my life.” (Kathryn, [24:53])
• On taxing billionaires:
  “We should just collect what they owe... audits don't just have a one year return, they tend to have a ten year return.” (Kathryn, [36:20, 37:56])
• On economic optimism:
  “We're all on the trial team right now... but where I see the country going is the settlement team...” (Kathryn, [47:56])
• On future prospects:
  “I know that 2040 will be better and 2050 will be, too.” (Kathryn, [49:53])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• UBI/Cash Studies: [03:17 – 06:14]
• Inflation Indexing in Legislation: [06:16 – 08:41]
• Tax Cut Budgeting Tricks: [08:41 – 11:40]
• Minimum Wage Exemptions: [11:40 – 15:01]
• Tipping Culture & Worker Protections: [15:01 – 17:56]
• Universal Childcare & State Funds: [18:01 – 19:53]
• Research, Immigration, Innovation: [20:22 – 22:49]
• Political Economy in Academia: [22:49 – 25:51]
• Local Policy Innovation: [26:09 – 30:30]
• Social Security Tax Cut History: [30:30 – 35:16]
• Billionaires and Wealth Taxation: [35:16 – 43:58]
• Post-Trump Labor Market & Economic Outlook: [43:58 – 50:01]

Closing Notes

The episode closes with lighthearted “spiritual sponsors” and a reaffirmation that listener questions are essential to the show’s mission and future. The hosts embody nuanced realism paired with practical, actionable optimism about economic policy and America's ability to adapt.

For further inquiries or to submit questions for future Q&A episodes, listeners are encouraged to reach out via optimist.economy@gmail.com.