Pablo Torre Finds Out

Episode: Confessions of a No. 1 Pick Gone Bust, with Alex Smith
Date: September 26, 2024
Host: Pablo Torre
Guest: Alex Smith

Overview

In this episode, Pablo Torre sits down with former NFL quarterback and No. 1 overall draft pick Alex Smith to explore the hidden realities behind being drafted into the rarefied “number one pick” club—only to struggle, face public scrutiny, and flirt with the dreaded label of “bust.” The conversation draws sharp parallels between Smith’s infamous rookie season and the challenges currently faced by new top picks like Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, and Trevor Lawrence. Smith offers brutally honest insights into the mental and organizational challenges he (and his modern counterparts) endure, the burden of expectations, and the lessons of resilience, mentorship, and leadership that rarely get discussed publicly.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Trauma of Being a No. 1 Pick (00:37–10:40)

• The Numbers That Haunt:
  Smith recalls his 2005 rookie season: “I cannot get the numbers 1 and 11 out of my head. One touchdown, 11 interceptions is just something that I will never forget.” (00:37)
• Personal Value and Replacement Anxiety:
  Pablo highlights Smith’s historically low performance metrics; Smith admits, “Like I was well below any average replacement.” (01:33)
• Being “The Face”—and the Fear:
  Smith describes the expectation to project strength: “As the quarterback and the face... that’s what you’ve been brought up in the football world to present: strength.” (03:36)
• Imposter Syndrome and Self-Doubt:
  Smith confides, “It haunts you. It consumes you, Pablo. It festered and it got worse and worse... there probably wasn’t a second of my day that I didn’t feel the weight of it.” (04:57)
• The Loneliness of the Job:
  “You're alone. Nobody knows what that's like. And the small world of like top pick quarterbacks, it is a small world.” (13:22)

From College Star to Public Spectacle (05:37–08:40)

• Immediate, Overwhelming Spotlight:
  From anonymity at Utah to “90 reporters and photographers taking pictures of me, watching me stretch, man, stretch. And I remember just like, like claustrophobic... It overwhelmed me.” (07:02)
• Dread and Performance Anxiety:
  “Sundays were just like miserable, Pablo, miserable... as you got to Thursday and Friday, that thing would just be cranking and Saturday, pregame was when it was absolutely maxed out.” (08:41)

The Reality of Getting Booed and Benched (09:41–11:28)

• The Chilling Sound of Booing:
  “70,000 people chanting the backup's name.” — on fans turning to David Carr (10:11)
• Seeking Validation:
  “Oh, I want them to like me. I want validation, Pablo. All I wanted... is just to prove everybody that I was worth it.” (10:32)

Modern Parallels: Bryce Young & Organizational Dysfunction (11:28–17:20)

• Dysfunction and Inconsistency:
  Smith criticizes the Panthers’ lack of patience and support for Bryce Young: “This has never happened before. We've never seen this lack of support for a number one overall pick and a guy they traded up for.” (15:07)
• Organizational Sabotage:
  “You have made this huge investment for your company... and you've literally just like sabotaged him. There is no plan in place.” (18:17)
• Sitting vs. Playing Early:
  Smith says, “I wish I had been benched.” He feels many young QBs would benefit from the chance to develop behind a veteran (20:34–20:43)

Lessons from Mahomes’ Mentorship and NFL Development Models (21:54–26:16)

• The Power of Veteran Presence:
  Smith points to the “brilliance” of giving Patrick Mahomes a year to develop behind him:

  “Patrick got the up close view and he's like, hey, take what you want, take what works for you and then send me on my way and oh yeah, get some draft picks in return, right? Like it's brilliant.” (22:38)

• Mahomes’ Public Appreciation:
  Audio of Mahomes: “I learned a lot about how to read coverages and blitzes from [Alex]. He gave me a blueprint... that I don't think I would have got anywhere else.” (24:15)

The Changing Quarterback Landscape & College Influence (27:23–31:36)

• Patience Needed for New QBs:
  “You hope to get through it and forget it... He's got it and he's showing glimpses and I think you just got to continue to give him time.” (27:23)
• NIL, Transfer Portal, and NFL Readiness:
  Smith notes how modern college QBs, like Jaden Daniels and Bo Nix, arrive more prepared due to extra years starting and freedom to transfer: “These guys have so much experience and I think it's made the college game better. It's made quarterbacking in college especially better, right? Older guys that are more experienced.” (29:08)
• The Importance of Experience:
  “For Jaden, I feel like that experience that he possesses, the calmness in the pocket, like, man, it looks. It looks unbelievable.” (31:24)

What Young QBs Need Most: Mindset and Support (32:04–34:04)

• Embracing Vulnerability and Imperfection:
  “You cannot bury the self doubt, Pablo... You have to confront it... And you’ve got to get back to the fearlessness... have the courage to fail. As crazy as that sounds, that’s what you have to get to.” (33:09)

The Modern Quarterback Puzzle: Declining Stats & Organizational Faults (34:04–40:57)

• Why Is Passing Down?
  Smith cites cyclical strategy (defenses catching up to modern offenses), changes in athlete type, and lack of preseason reps:

  “It is weird... the places that take preseason seriously are Kansas City and San Francisco... The places that take preseason seriously seem to have success because they're operated differently.” (37:12–38:49)

• The Death of the Middle-Class QB:
  “We’ve lost the middle market for quarterbacks... if you're a starting caliber quarterback, Pablo, you can ask for $50 million... There used to be a middle market... and that's just gone.” (39:23)
• AFC vs. NFC Bias:
  “The AFC is the best conference... because of their quarterbacks. The NFC... just absolutely gets dismissed... but these guys [like Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield] are outplaying their AFC counterparts.” (40:13–40:57)

The Unpredictability & Vulnerability of the Quarterback Position (41:26–47:33)

• Nobody Knows Anything:
  Pablo: “It’s very difficult to find a thing that America obsesses over more than quarterbacks that they are worse at accurately forecasting.” (41:26)

• The True Traits of Success:
  Smith: “Resiliency came up... struggle is such a part of everybody’s story to success... I get to the point that like there is a physical floor that I think any guy has to have... From there, I think it's these things you can't measure that probably have the biggest impact.” (43:48–44:48)

• Building Fearlessness and the Problem of Perfectionism:
  “I spent six years trying to be perfect. I was scared to death to make a mistake. I took the field with the worst mindset possible.” (45:14)

  • Smith credits coaches like Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid with helping him “bring joy back into it—really, like, the fearlessness.” (45:44)

• Shared Responsibility and Complexity:
  “The reason the NFL is the greatest challenge in sports is because it takes a thousand different things to get the formula right... for anybody trying to take credit for the singular thing in that, like, you know, winning and quarterback success, again, just doesn’t know what they’re talking about.” (47:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Self-Doubt as a Rookie:
  “I became consumed with fear to make... any mistake. Like, I just tried to be perfect. And so I walked around on eggshells. I took the field on eggshells.” – Alex Smith (06:00)

• On Bryce Young’s Ordeal:
  “You can't see out. You just can't even see the light of day, right? Like there is no end of the tunnel... This organization obviously is struggling to identify and keep talent. And that's an understatement.” – Alex Smith (15:59)

• Value of Sitting Behind a Veteran:
  “You have made this huge investment for your company, for your team, and you've literally just like sabotaged him. There is no plan in place.” – Alex Smith (18:17)

• On Mentoring Mahomes:
  “He credits you for doing the thing that you did not receive, which is, it seems you helped him feel less alone.” – Pablo Torre (24:39)

• On NFL Forecasting:
  “How does Brock Purdy go to the last pick in the draft?... The highest bust rate of any position in the draft: Quarterback is like... below 50%. So clearly the NFL... has no idea what they’re doing on this.” – Alex Smith (42:45)

• Mental Side Over Measurables:
  “What are the attributes and characteristics that are most important?... They're not measurables.” – Alex Smith (43:28)

• Resiliency as Key:
  “Resiliency came up... You better be mentally tough and resilient if you want a chance to make it.” – Alex Smith (43:48)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 00:37–05:09: Smith’s rookie trauma, negativity, and stats
• 05:37–08:40: Transition from college to NFL spotlight and mental toll
• 09:41–11:28: Hearing boos, yearning for validation, and away games
• 11:28–15:34: Bryce Young comparison: Dysfunction and lack of support
• 15:34–20:43: Organizational failures, patience, and value of being benched
• 21:54–26:16: Veteran mentorship (esp. Mahomes), NFL pipeline
• 27:23–31:36: Modern rookie struggles, NIL, transfer portal, and readiness
• 32:04–34:04: Advice for current top picks, handling expectations & failure
• 34:04–40:57: Why passing is down, preseason changes, market inefficiencies
• 41:26–47:33: Forecasting QB talent, non-measurable attributes, perfectionism

Takeaways

• Being a No. 1 draft pick can be traumatizing, not just a dream come true.
• NFL organizations frequently mishandle young quarterbacks, compounding mental stress.
• Mentorship, patience, and humility are as important as talent and physical tools.
• There’s no reliable science for projecting a successful NFL quarterback.
• Resiliency, vulnerability, and embracing failure are at the heart of long-term success in this role.