Pablo Torre Finds Out

Episode: "The Nerd Who Knew Too Much"

Date: August 21, 2025
Host: Pablo Torre
Guests/Correspondents: Rich Levine, Nick Altshuler

Overview:

This episode is a deep-dive "talkumentary" into the lost legacy—and strange life—of Martin Manley, a forgotten pioneer of basketball analytics. Guided by journalists and NBA obsessives Nick Altshuler and Rich Levine, Pablo uncovers how Manley quietly helped revolutionize the NBA (by championing the three-pointer and efficiency stats), only to fade anonymously into obscurity, culminating in his meticulously planned and mathematically justified suicide. The episode traces Manley's innovations, personality quirks, and ultimate disappearance, and ponders why history remembers some nerds—and forgets others.

Key Discussion Points & Insights:

The Arrival of the Opener: Soda, Sports Nerds, and Daryl Morey (00:00 – 03:00)

• The episode opens with Pablo, Rich, and Nick reminiscing about childhood sodas and the prevalence of Diet Mountain Dew in the sports analytics world.
• Daryl Morey is humorously introduced as the “guy most addicted to Diet Mountain Dew”—but also as the inheritor of a sports analytics revolution that actually had its genesis with an unknown figure: Martin Manley.

Notable Quote:
“Mountain Dew is so… Diet Mountain Dew. Total side note. Is the juice that so much of the sports nerd world runs on.”
— Pablo Torre (00:46)

Discovery of Martin Manley (03:06 – 05:17)

• Pablo, despite his credentials and connections, admits he’s never heard of Manley—nor has Daryl Morey.
• Rich and Nick explain that Manley was the first person to advocate, in a book, for increased three-point shooting in the NBA.

Notable Quotes:
“He was the first person to write in a book: the NBA should shoot more three-pointers. Like, I feel very comfortable making that argument.”
— Nick Altshuler (03:23)

“The thing that Daryl Morey... has made his entire career on is actually first established by this guy. He did not know about the hint.”
— Pablo Torre (03:41)

Martin Manley’s Early Life: Kansas, Isolation, and Efficiency (08:11 – 12:34)

• Manley's upbringing in rural Kansas shaped his social isolation and analytic mindset.
• Lived geographically near Bill James, sabermetrics godfather—a stroke of fortunate proximity for an aspiring analytics nerd.

Memorable Anecdote:
“He tried to figure out, like, an efficiency model for a teenage, like, making out.”
— Nick Altshuler (11:39)

• Manley validated his own intelligence by scoring highly on a self-administered IQ test—catalyzing a lifelong sense of unique intellect.
• He had synesthesia, experiencing numbers and colors as linked—a trait he was unaware was rare for decades.

The Invention: Efficiency Rating and "Basketball Heaven" (14:05 – 22:51)

• Manley transitioned from a satellite TV business to NBA analysis, inspired by Bill James’s success.
• He hand-wrote “Basketball Heaven,” the first book statistically arguing for more three-pointers and introducing the “EFF” efficiency rating.

EFF Formula Recap:
EFF = (Points + Rebounds + Assists + Blocks + Steals) – (Missed FGs + Missed FTs + Turnovers), divided by games played. (17:29)

• Despite EFF’s intuitive simplicity, it would become overshadowed by more famous, arcane modern stats (like John Hollinger’s PER).
• Manley’s book included legit blurbs from Bill James and, in later editions, NBA commissioner David Stern.
• He briefly appeared on national TV as “the Bill James of basketball”—but his personality withered on air, and he failed to capitalize on the opportunity, never returning to the spotlight.

Notable Quote:
“Martin Manley was a singular human being... and after he was set up by Fred, he kind of just became this boring shell of a man instead of the man he is in his books.”
— Nick Altshuler (24:30)

Fade into Obscurity & Turn Inwards (26:40 – 28:15)

• With poor book sales and little recognition, Manley withdrew from the public eye.
• His social life faded; he suffered through two divorces, increasingly turning his obsession with efficiency onto his own life—and death.

The Meticulously Calculated Goodbye (28:23 – 38:16)

• In August 2013, Rich recalls first hearing the news: "Sportswriter commits suicide, leaves website."
• Manley's sprawling final website remains online: a digital self-archive mixing analytics, rankings, fun facts, riddles, poems, and musings on his life, loves, synesthesia, and eventual planned death.
• The website is equal parts suicide note, diary, puzzle, and testament.

Notable Quotes:
“It’s essentially a suicide letter. And you read it, and half of it, you’re like, why would you put your invention for, like, a cat litter box in there?”
— Nick Altshuler (30:17)

“Debit card equals bad credit.”
— Pablo Torre (32:07)

• Manley justifies his suicide via the logic of becoming an “inefficient” net negative as he aged—a chillingly literal application of the statistical worldview he brought to basketball.

The Death Itself, and Family Reactions (33:31 – 37:52)

• Manley planned every detail, leaving messages for friends, arranging affairs, and even choosing a police station parking lot (next to a basketball court) to minimize collateral trauma.
• His sister Barbie reads from the email he scheduled for family after his death, highlighting both the pain and the efficiency of his leave-taking.

Memorable Moment:
“He did make it easy. I don’t think I ever stopped and cried because... he was happy. And don’t feel bad. I’m not like all the other people that commit suicide when they’re depressed. I’m thrilled. He said he’s been thinking about it most of his life.”
— Barbie (36:28)

The Bill James Reflection: Rivers, Fate, and Control (38:32 – 41:14)

• Rich and Nick return, in their reporting, to Bill James for perspective on Manley's end.
• James draws an analogy between life and a river: “...it just so happens that Martin’s kayak capsized and he hit his head. And that’s the way things go sometimes. It’s a thing that happened as opposed to...”
  — Nick Altshuler relaying Bill James (40:32)

Key Quote:
“Being like you’re part of the river, and occasionally the river kills you, but it moves on, whether you’re swimming in it or pissing in it, you know, so what? You might as well swim.”
— Bill James (41:02)

Finale: Remembering Martin Manley, Toast with Pepsi (41:22 – 43:16)

• In Manley’s honor, the group toasts him—in true sports nerd fashion—with sodas.
• The hosts reflect on his life’s combination of brilliance, missed recognition, and the complexity of “efficiency” when applied to a human being.

Memorable Toast:
“A proud forefather of sports analytics. Perhaps unfairly unrecognized, but I hope to bring him back into the limelight.”
— Nick Altshuler (42:49)

“And a man who believed in himself, who took some chances, for better or worse, wasn’t comfortable with being average.”
— Rich Levine (42:59)

Pablo’s closing words:
“It’s appropriate to raise a glass to the life and occasional brilliance of Martin Manley.” (43:07)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "Mountain Dew is so... Diet Mountain Dew. Total side note. Is the juice that so much of the sports nerd world runs on." — Pablo Torre (00:46)
• "He was the first person to write in a book: the NBA should shoot more three-pointers." — Nick Altshuler (03:23)
• “Martin Manley was a singular human being... he just became this like boring shell of a man instead of the man he is in his books.” — Nick Altshuler (24:30)
• "It’s essentially a suicide letter..." — Nick Altshuler (30:17)
• “He did make it easy... don’t feel bad. I’m not like all the other people that commit suicide when they’re depressed. I’m thrilled.” — Barbie (36:28)
• “Being like you’re part of the river, and occasionally the river kills you, but it moves on, whether you’re swimming in it or pissing in it, you know, so what? You might as well swim.” — Bill James (41:02)
• “A proud forefather of sports analytics. Perhaps unfairly unrecognized...” — Nick Altshuler (42:49)
• “And a man who believed in himself, who took some chances...” — Rich Levine (42:59)

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

• Opener, Sodas, Sports Nerds: (00:00 – 03:00)
• Discovery & Problem of Recognition: (03:06 – 05:17)
• Upbringing and Personality: (08:11 – 12:34)
• The Making of “Basketball Heaven”: (14:05 – 22:51)
• Rise and Fade from the Spotlight: (22:51 – 28:15)
• A Calculated Suicide and Digital Legacy: (28:23 – 38:13)
• Family Reflection: (36:16 – 37:52)
• Return to Bill James, River Analogy: (38:32 – 41:14)
• Final Toast and Closing Thoughts: (41:22 – 43:16)

Conclusion

This episode is a moving, surprising excavation of forgotten genius, nerd culture, and the personal cost of living life by the numbers. It’s both a tribute—and a warning—about the price of radical efficiency for the human soul. Pablo ends the episode with a heartfelt toast, ensuring that Martin Manley will be forgotten no longer—at least by the audience of those who, like Martin, once saw the three-point shot as a beautiful, overlooked solution hiding in plain sight.