The Sporting Class: Inside Google's $200 Million War on ESPN

Summary

Podcast Summary: Pablo Torre Finds Out

Episode: The Sporting Class: Inside Google's $200 Million War on ESPN

Date: November 13, 2025

Host: Pablo Torre
Guests: John Skipper (former ESPN President, Meadowlark Media), David Sampson (host of “Nothing Personal”)

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Overview

This episode provides a deep-dive analysis into the escalating, high-stakes carriage dispute between Disney/ESPN and Google/YouTube TV—a conflict that has led to ESPN and other Disney properties going dark for millions of YouTube TV subscribers. The conversation, marked by sharp wit and insider expertise, unpacks the mechanics, consequences, and industry-wide implications of this tech-media showdown, revealing why a $200 million rebate to consumers is just the tip of the iceberg.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage: What Is a “Carriage Dispute”?

(04:33 – 07:08)

• Definition: A carriage dispute is “when content creators (like ESPN/Disney) and platforms (like YouTube TV) can’t agree on how much the platform should pay for the right to carry the content,” resulting in blackouts.
• Pablo’s Personal Connection: Pablo experiences the blackout as a YouTube TV subscriber (05:54) and asks his guests for insider perspective.

“It does feel like there are potentially some horses’ asses involved here.”
— John Skipper [05:11]

2. Why This Fight Matters Right Now

(07:08 – 12:15)

• Historical Context: Under John Skipper, ESPN never suffered an actual blackout—a testament to its former negotiating leverage.
• Changing Dynamics: The landscape has shifted. ESPN is facing real pushback, as younger audiences move to digital platforms like YouTube TV, now exceeding 10 million subscribers.
• Impact: Switches in providers are happening quickly; students, for example, attribute blame mostly to ESPN, not YouTube TV.

“We never had a carriage dispute... Disney had such a formidable lineup... it made it pretty unthinkable for anybody to take ESPN off.”
— John Skipper [07:08]

3. The Pain Threshold: Who Can Hold Out Longer?

(12:15 – 16:46)

• Cost to Disney: Estimated losses of $5 million per day, potentially $30 million a week, but Disney’s leadership tries to frame this as strategic, not merely damaging.
• Google’s Tolerance: For Google, even large subscriber losses are not material compared to the size of Alphabet. But Google’s ultimate goal is to become the largest pay TV distributor, so losing momentum hurts their ambitions.
• Debate: Skipper believes the pain is greater for YouTube TV; Sampson contends Google is willing to play the long game, even at revenue loss, to gain negotiating leverage for the future.

“If you’re Google... you want to make Disney a zit and you just... do anything to crush them.”
— David Sampson [14:44]

4. What’s Actually Being Negotiated: The MFN Clause

(25:26 – 32:17)

• Core Dispute: Alphabet (YouTube TV) wants lower rates for Disney content than the biggest traditional cable companies (Comcast, Charter, DirecTV), citing their “growth trajectory.”
• Disney’s Position: Granting YouTube TV a better rate would violate the “most favored nation” (MFN) clause, which ensures no carrier gets a lower price, protecting the big incumbents.
• Industry Translation: MFN essentially means, “We all pay the same rate. No special deals for disruptors.”
• Unique Angle: YouTube TV claims it deserves different treatment as the only rapidly-growing pay TV provider, but neither Skipper nor Sampson finds this argument compelling from Disney’s perspective.

“It’s a protection against somebody getting a better deal than you... You cannot give the renegade company... a price break.”
— John Skipper [26:37]

5. Consumer Fallout and Google’s PR Gambit

(24:06 – 25:26)

• $20 Credit Offer: Google offers a $20 rebate to YouTube TV subscribers—potentially costing $200 million if all claim it. It’s opt-in, likely muting the actual hit.
• Analysis: Skipper questions the efficacy, suggesting it’s either a PR gesture or a signal of ESPN’s perceived value.

“They’re not going to change anybody’s mind with $20. If you want to switch, you’re going to switch.”
— John Skipper [24:37]

6. Industry Power and Existential Stakes

(32:17 – 33:48)

• Beyond Sports: While college football (and NFL Monday Night Football) are major pressure points, Skipper and Sampson agree the battle is about more than sports—a proxy for the fight over the future of TV and bundled content.
• Disney’s Strategy: Seeking something that Google/YouTube TV can offer that won’t violate MFN, potentially involving the ESPN app or digital bundling partnerships.

“If you’re at Disney, what you’re trying to figure out is: how can I actually help myself here on something that is a priority for me? ESPN, the new direct-to-consumer service, would be at the top of my list.”
— John Skipper [32:17]

7. Old vs. New Media—And Their Interests

(41:25 – 44:50)

• Traditional Cable's Woes: Companies like Charter, Comcast, and DirecTV are sidelines players—concerned only that YouTube TV doesn’t get a better deal under MFN.
• Changing Business Models: The distinction between “cable” and “digital” is disappearing: “All these are cable companies” now, and switching from one to the other doesn’t alter the price “race to the bottom.”
• Consumer Disadvantage: Whatever the outcome, the consumer might still lose, as prices will likely increase across platforms.

8. Federal and Political Pressures

(46:54 – 48:48)

• Regulatory Involvement: FCC Chairman Brendan Carr publicly urges both sides to end the blackout, underscoring the national impact of the dispute.
• Political Maneuvering: The threat of federal intervention, even with a partisan twist, adds an unpredictable variable to negotiations.

9. Backstage Drama: The “Switching Teams” Subplot

(38:14 – 40:40)

• Personnel Drama: Justin Connolly, former Disney exec, left for YouTube TV during these negotiations. A lawsuit followed; now, he is officially recused, but the discussion highlights the chess moves and institutional knowledge involved in these high-level negotiations.

10. Predictions & Lessons for the Industry

(52:06 – 55:13)

• Who Wins?: Sampson predicts Google ultimately wins by enduring the pain. Skipper thinks both sides want (and will get) a face-saving deal, likely before the next football marquee or Thanksgiving weekend.
• Industry Takeaways: The era of Disney as “the only ogre” is waning—there’s always a bigger player, and the pivots of Google mark a new phase in sports/media power dynamics.

“If you had been under the boot of Disney before, there’s always a bigger ogre.”
— Pablo Torre [54:43]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I was gonna say... now that I’m not in charge of giving bonuses, I think they should give you a bonus!”
  — John Skipper [03:45]
• “Isn’t that... petticoats? Aren’t those undergarments that women wore?”
  — John Skipper, skewering carriage analogies [06:13]
• “I think it’s even more existential... The people [incumbents] would least like to have any advantage are the ascendant YouTube TV subscribers.”
  — John Skipper [30:28]
• “This negotiation is not just about content pricing—it's an existential business model struggle, with the loser redefining the future of TV as we know it.”
  — Paraphrased insight [Multiple moments]
• “With all the uncertainty that comes with living in 2025... it is nice to know your family’s financial future is protected.”
  — Pablo Torre, tongue-in-cheek ad segue [34:11]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | Key Themes | |------------|--------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | 04:33 | Carriage Disputes Explained | What it means, who’s affected, why it’s happening | | 07:08 | ESPN's Past Negotiation Power | Skipper’s ESPN tenure, shifting leverage | | 12:15 | Stakes: $5M/day losses & Wall Street | How Disney and Google are feeling the pinch | | 16:10 | College vs. NFL Leverage | What's at stake with Monday Night Football, college games | | 25:26 | The MFN Clause Unpacked | What’s being negotiated, why MFN matters | | 24:06 | Google’s $200M Subscriber Rebate | Consumer optics, PR battle | | 38:14 | The “Switching Teams” Drama | Justin Connolly’s move from Disney to YouTube TV | | 46:54 | FCC Chairman’s Statement | Federal government intervention; regulatory tension | | 52:06 | Who Wins? Predictions & Takeaways | Industry lessons, the “ogre” metaphor, closing insights |

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Tone and Language

Playful, irreverent, and candid—Pablo Torre moderates the conversation with his signature wit and agility, while Skipper and Sampson combine deep industry knowledge with good-natured barbs and personal anecdotes. The discussion is jargon-light (with explanations for terms like MFN), making complex business machinations accessible for an informed general audience.

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For New Listeners

If you haven’t followed the intricate war between the tech giants and sports media empires, this episode serves as an engaging primer, revealing how billion-dollar deals and consumer access to sports are hanging in the balance. The trio’s banter not only demystifies the business negotiations but underscores the broader implications for the future of live TV, streaming, and the ever-shifting landscape of corporate power.

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Listen if you want to understand:

• Why your ESPN channel might be dark
• How billion-dollar companies play hardball—and who ultimately pays
• Where the next battle lines in the streaming war will be drawn

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“Good job, Pablo.” – David Sampson [55:05]

Transcript

[Pablo Torre]

Welcome to Pablo Torre Finds Out I am Pablo Torre and today we're gonna find out what this sound is.

[John Skipper]

I would challenge you to find anybody who would suggest I was ever ogre like in a discussion.

[David Sampson]

I would challenge you to find anyone within my industry who doesn't view you that way.

[Pablo Torre]

Right after this ad.

[John Skipper]

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[Pablo Torre]

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[John Skipper]

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[David Sampson]

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[John Skipper]

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[Commercial Announcer]

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[Pablo Torre]

David Sampson looks better than he's ever looked, in my view.

[John Skipper]

Wow.

[David Sampson]

I feel worse than I've ever felt in my view, but thank you. Not my target demographic, but I appreciate the compliment.

[John Skipper]

It's not a bad look many people.

[Pablo Torre]

Can'T pull off A clean shaven head and a full beard. David looks like he's in a new era of content creation as a result. And I want to thank you, David, for making time to be here. The story of why you've shaved your hair is explained on your own show, Nothing Personal with David Sampson. It is in tribute to your daughter who we have talked about before on this show and elsewhere. I don't want to dwell on it beyond the fact that there is a convenient metaphor because we are here to talk about who gets to take a haircut in the world. Look at. I'm so good at this, guys.

[John Skipper]

I'm so amazing.

[Pablo Torre]

I'm so good at hosting this morning.

[John Skipper]

Class is a that he's a professional, folks.

[David Sampson]

It's not rehearsed.

[John Skipper]

Does that mean he gets paid to do this a lot?

[Pablo Torre]

I get paid for segue, actually.

[John Skipper]

Wow.

[David Sampson]

Per Twitter fight.

[John Skipper]

I think that's worth a bonus.

[David Sampson]

It's like the man who doesn't give the bonus.

[Pablo Torre]

I was gonna say that meant a lot.

[John Skipper]

Now that I'm not in charge of giving bonuses, I think they should give you a bonus. Like instead of that, what is it? The bucket of death where you actually have to pay. We should have the bucket of bonus for a clever segue like that. Reach right in, get a $20 bill.

[Pablo Torre]

I've worked for John in two separate companies, one of which is essential to the episode we're here to do today. And at no point has he said we should give you a bonus. But now when he has zero influence over the bonuses, I get one. And I appreciate that, John.

[John Skipper]

Yeah, I'm encourage it.

[Pablo Torre]

Thursday is a day that used to mean a lot in the life of John Skipper and still does as a focus of this episode because it's Disney's fourth quarter earnings call day. And we are hearing and analyzing the sounds coming from two different corners. On one side is Disney, which owns ESPN and abc. The other side is what we call Alphabet Google, which owns YouTube TV. And there is something that we got to explain for everybody who doesn't know the term that of course we're fluent in here on the sporting class. But the term is carriage dispute. John.

[John Skipper]

No, I was trying to think of some funny joke about horses and carriages, but I couldn't. It does feel like there are potentially some horses asses involved here.

[David Sampson]

Always the people who run their companies. But the reason why you want to bring up carriage disputes is that you can't get something for nothing. And these companies have content. And content costs money to make, costs money to produce. And there are platforms that want that content. YouTube TV charges people to get channels to. Disney's got channels. They have to negotiate a price. And the reason you get all these disputes is there is a huge schism that exists right now over what people think their content is worth and what the platforms think their content is worth. And then you get major fights, the likes of which we're seeing right now.

[Pablo Torre]

Right. So if you're a YouTube TV subscriber, as I am, I don't get ESPN. ESPN has been blacked out. ABC the Games, likewise blacked out. And a carriage dispute, despite the conjuring of, you know, top hats and. And petticoats. And I think.

[John Skipper]

Petticoats.

[Pablo Torre]

Petticoats.

[John Skipper]

Isn't that. Aren't those undergarments that women wore? Not. Not coaches, not the. Not what the carriage drivers do?

[Pablo Torre]

Well, you. My Google search does indicate that I may be providing a level of visibility that unwanted actually, but expected.

[John Skipper]

It's Dragon. And in the this world that's not allowed drag. So petticoats. So you've got carriage drivers wearing petticoats.

[David Sampson]

Do you have people with you who still go over this show to see what's allowed in it or now that you're not in charge of bonuses? No, it's just balls to the wall.

[John Skipper]

Well, I don't know about that.

[David Sampson]

All right, we can keep it in then.

[Pablo Torre]

There's. There's a manure reference that I've been holding on to that I'll now discard. A manure. Carriage disputes, horse manure, and the question of when John Skipper was president of espn. How many carriage disputes did you have to navigate?

[John Skipper]

We never had a carriage dispute. If dispute is defined as not reaching an agreement, it goes public and you come off the air. Disney had such a formidable lineup, buttressed overwhelmingly by ESPN sports portfolio that made it pretty unthinkable for anybody to take ESPN off. I believe it still is debilit. It still is destructive to any distributor who tries to take his pen off, as I believe this is. I spent the last Thursday and Friday at the University of Iowa, was at the journalism school, creative writing school and asked and was shocked when I asked for a show of hands and who has YouTube TV. So one thing I discovered was its subscribers are overwhelmingly young. And by the way, it was the car. It was the carrier of choice for the students. They all said they liked YouTube TV better. They that was their carrier. I asked them who they blamed. They said about 65, 35. We blame ESPN, by the way. It didn't say the Walt Disney Company, they said we blame ESPN. And I said, what are you doing about this? And they said we switching carriers. So while they blame espn, we, we.

[David Sampson]

Can stop there for one second because that's the whole game here. Because we need to go a step further. Does Disney have any sort of platform? Yes, they have Hulu Live. They have an ESPN app. So this is not like a work stoppage that happens in sports where there are no games being played. ESPN is still out there. You can get it. You're a YouTube TV platform holder. You can still get ESPN. You just have to get it a different way. It's not like when baseball goes on strike and there's no games being played. It doesn't matter where you are or through what lens you're looking. There's no games in this case. You can clearly still get ESPN and people are going to vote. And the way they're voting is, hey, I can get rid of YouTube TV and I can get Hulu Live. Guess what? Hulu Live is the Disney company. So why would it not be a strategy for. For the Disney company to strangle YouTube TV? Who's trying to overtake all of them including Charter and NBC and Peacock are involved here because you've got Dish and Comcast. Why wouldn't this be a strategy for Hulu to try to get in the conversation and overtake all of those platforms?

[John Skipper]

At least in the survey, which is not scientific, nor did I really add up the votes. They did not talk about switching to Hulu. They talked about switching to comcast and, and DirecTV. Right. I mean that's the more logical for them place is just to go back and get another.

[Pablo Torre]

The non Disney options.

[John Skipper]

Yeah. And by the way, YouTube TV everybody talks about like it's different than Comcast. It's the same thing. It's just delivered digitally rather than through coaxial cable or telephone line. It's just the delivery of a multichannel subscription. And these students want to get espn. Nobody said a thing about missing Freeform or any other channel including abc. They were concerned about missing espn. And they said that while they believed that ESPN was somewhat responsible, they were going to end up punishing the distributor whether they thought ESPN was responsible or not because they want their games. And that's always been the power that ESPN brings to this. It is about the only channel. Fox News probably is the other one that people will change their supplier if they can't get espn. If they can't get Fox News, they probably would as well. I don't think there's another channel. Am I missing somebody? There's the, there's the.

[Pablo Torre]

I think that's right. I think that's generally correct. But I want to actually emphasize what is different about Google because the thing that happened in 2023, which we covered by the way with Charter, right, there was a carriage dispute lasted 11 days. Now that one did not touch Monday Night Football. Right. And Monday Night Football, John, you've described it on the show previously as like the ultimate bulwark against canceling or against someone winning the arm wrestling contest with Disney over like what you get to charge for these Games. And then 2024, September, a year ago, DirecTV, this was a 14 day carriage dispute in which they missed the season opener, they missed the NFL kickoff September 9th and it did cost them one Monday Night Football game. And that is unprecedented and also a symptom of something that seems to be changing at ESPN in terms of the landscape and the leverage it has because now we're standing on the precipice of a second Monday Night Football game being cost according to this Google carriage dispute.

[David Sampson]

But you started and we talked are they losing? Reports are $5 million a day. And you started the show by talking about the earnings call that's coming. And if you're Wall Street, Wall street analyst, and you are looking at a daily problem of $5 million a day, the impact it may have on this quarter's earnings, it may be there a quarter of a penny, a half a penny. But what you're being told by the Disney people, by the Sea Suite people, by Iger is listen, problem now maybe, but long term, if we don't hold our ground here, if we do not explain to YouTube TV the way we are going to operate and then he's still going to go into his other assets like Hulu. So you're telling your analysts on the call, yes, we are guiding you toward this $5 million per day problem. But we are also showing our shareholders the benefit of, of this strategy and what it will do to our share price. So they know what they're doing. Clearly.

[John Skipper]

I certainly believe that they will hold because what does YouTube TV have about 10 million subscribers?

[David Sampson]

So that I don't know that they give a number. But I've, I've read that somewhere.

[Pablo Torre]

I read that as of November, currently over 10 million is. That's the estimate.

[John Skipper]

I would be shocked that after two weeks if they haven't lost a six.

[David Sampson]

Figure number of subscribers and that was like to 9,900,000.

[John Skipper]

Well somewhere between 100,000 to 999,999 and I would guess it's somewhere in the middle of that, but I would guess they've lost a quarter million subscribers. Probably.

[Pablo Torre]

But the pain tolerance, right? So Google and Disney are both enormous, enormous companies. Google particularly formidable though when it comes to who gets to win a war of attrition in terms of that tolerance.

[John Skipper]

Well, they certainly, it's not, it's barely material to the Alphabet company that they will lose to earn. I'm making it up. I do not have a source. 250,000 subscribers headed to 500,000 subscribers. That that matters to them because their goal is to become the largest distributor and this is going to hinder that. And they're going to discover the power of ESPN to make people change their, their subscription. These people are our kids and they want to see the Owl game next week and they play away from home and they're going to be unhappy when they can't watch that game and they might switch their carrier.

[David Sampson]

I couldn't possibly disagree with you more because if you're a Google and you're YouTube TV, you want to make Disney a zis and you just, you're happy to pop it, you're happy for it to get big and red and you just, you, you will do anything to crush them. And if it requires this sort of standing where you are dark, you're losing 250, 500,000. The whole argument they're having is what happens when YouTube takes over the world. The whole argument they're having is YouTube wanting more money when they become the player in this space.

[John Skipper]

Well, I don't, I would, I would put it slightly different, which is Disney has the pain tolerance to put up with this for a while and the pain that will be inflicted upon them if they pierce the MFNs, we'll talk about what that is, is greater. A lot more than $5 million.

[Pablo Torre]

That sets sort of like the, the stakes here a bit because one note is that YouTube, by the way, of course, famously they purchased the rights to NFL Sunday Ticket. And so even though they might not be able to watch the games, it's hard to imagine that those subscribers necessarily would leave with that degree of immediacy because they're also already subscribing and paying a lot of money, hundreds of dollars annually to get Sunday Ticket. But you mentioned NFNs and I want to get to the whole, like what is actually being argued over here?

[John Skipper]

I just would make the point if we do that college football may be just as important as the NFL for ESPN. We've had these contract disputes for DirecTV and other places with CBS. Their most valuable asset is Monday Night Football. I suspect more people cancel. These Iowa kids were not complaining about missing Monday Night Football because you can go to a bar, you can go to a friend's house and watch it somewhere. But if you want to watch the college football game, that's only on espn. That is more, I think, more acute than an NFL game.

[David Sampson]

I love what your research tells you, but you were in Iowa and I love Iowa. I love the people in Iowa. But I don't believe that Bob Iger is sitting there calculating what's going on in Iowa as. As dictating his strategy. I don't think you can extrapolate what you hear in Iowa.

[John Skipper]

What I heard, what I heard in IOW is that ESPN is not the party that's going to get most hurt by this. Now, Alphabet has a higher pain tolerance than Disney. They're a bigger company. This is less material to them. So they can hold their breath for a long time. But I don't know Disney. The burden for Disney is to figure out something they can give them, which is not the price on either ESPN or abc. And I think there are recent news reports that the dispute may be more about ABC than espn. Though that could also be PR spin from Alphabet suggesting that we're mad. I know you're mad about espn, but it's not even espn. It's abc. And by the way, nobody is saying I'm going to change my subscription because I can't get abc.

[Pablo Torre]

I want to actually use. I like how a we're sounding like we're doing exit polls for the Iowa caucuses right now.

[John Skipper]

I know it's just a point of data.

[Pablo Torre]

No, but.

[John Skipper]

And I do believe it to be accurate. I believe that unlike previous disputes, when we actually did them, we always discovered it was the distributor they blamed. So we didn't get any emails, we didn't get any complaints. That's clearly changed a little bit, but I don't know that it means that the outcome here will change a little bit.

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah, I think anecdotally the Google YouTube TV product is just a good product. And I think people are inconvenienced and what they blame as a result of that inconvenience. I think mileage varies. But I actually want to just call upon your expertise and experience inside of these Disney earnings calls. Like, what's it. What. What hap. For those who have no idea what the that is like when you say, you know, potentially, according to Morgan Stanley. Right. Their analyst Ben Swinburne is calculating that Disney is losing 30 million a week. Right. And we're about to enter fully week two. What's it like on a call like that, John? Like what's, what's actually happening at an earnings call?

[John Skipper]

Well, they've released what the results in the last quarter were and they are asking the CEO because Bob takes the calls usually with the CFO and sometimes he brings in a segment leader if there's something to talk about. I doubt they will here. So Bob will do it and he'll get questions about it. I don't think Wall street is going to get that excited about $5 million a day.

[David Sampson]

So let's explain what call is though.

[John Skipper]

That's not a lot of money for a big company like the Walt Disney Company.

[David Sampson]

Can I take one minute just to set the table of what it's like? It's picture a zoom and on. There are a bunch of kids and their job is to say buy, sell, hold. And those are the kids who then get information within a Wall street bank who say buy, sell, hold. And I'm not impugning them and what they do because it's very hard to be an analyst on Wall Street. The people on the investment side, the wealth management side, who are calling their customers and saying, hey, buy Disney shares, they are basing it on what their firm and other firms are saying. Should you be buying Disney, selling Disney or holding Disney?

[Pablo Torre]

So they're listening and making decisions based on what they hear.

[David Sampson]

So that is what is supposed to be happening, but it's not. It is very rare. It's like the Supreme Court or anybody changing what their vote's gonn be based on oral argument. It very rarely changes the opinion of a justice, although it feels good to the lawyer to have an oral argument. It's the same thing with these earnings calls. These analysts have a very good idea because they pressure test these companies. That's all they do all day long. They don't wait for four times a year to learn, oh, what's going on at Disney, Bob, please tell me. They know when Disney takes a dump. They know when Bob Iger is skiing. They know everything that's going on. What the, what the cause I'm glad.

[John Skipper]

You separated those two different things.

[David Sampson]

I was trying to give you the full scale that these analysts, their whole job is to know the companies they cover.

[John Skipper]

Well, it not only is, but if you actually go in and are a little bit cynical, they all have Models. And what they're mostly trying to do on the earnings call is test their models. So what they're going to do is ask questions to see if they need to lower the revenue assumptions they have in their model, how much that might be and how that changes what their projections of next year's earnings.

[David Sampson]

Part of what the earnings call is, it's not just about what's happened. It's also part of forecast. This is what we got going. So when you're doing your models and you're making your buy sell hold decisions, by the way, you should see what we got going first quarter of 26. And so that's another part of what the earnings call is. And it's a big pain in the neck for public companies. You have to spend time prepping for them. And you're dealing with these people at the Wall street firms on the zoom. It's funny, but you do it.

[John Skipper]

I do. What do you. I'd be interested to know what you think. I don't think this will be that big a deal. At the earnings call, they want to know, so they're going to ask because they got to figure out how they change their model. But it's just not that material. $5 million a day.

[David Sampson]

No, it's the PR part of it. So it's getting a lot of attention within our world of sports business. But for people on Wall street, when they're going through Disney or they're going through Google, they are hardly spending time pressure testing, saying, all right, how long is this going to go? What's this? What is the impact now, if it is true that YouTube is going to lose 250,000 subs a week? And so we.

[John Skipper]

Yeah, and I didn't say that.

[David Sampson]

Which you didn't say, but that would be a material number. And so you're losing 10% in a month. And so you are under a year away from YouTube TV disappearing.

[John Skipper]

Well, you would.

[David Sampson]

If that were the case, then that would be a much more serious issue.

[John Skipper]

Only because the people who are going to switch switch pretty early. Right? I mean, because they want to see a specific game next Saturday and they're prepared to switch in time to see that game. The, the, the. It won't go at a steady rate every week.

[David Sampson]

I agree.

[John Skipper]

And I think I probably underestimated what they've lost so far. But it will start coming down pretty quickly. And then. And it's Disney. What Disney's got to do is go in and figure out something to give them. Remember, they settled the charter agreement by I think agreeing to let Charter sell or carry Disney plus there was a.

[David Sampson]

Bundle, it was a bundle solution, which is fascinating given the company's fighting because they all have bundles that they're selling and trying to promote. So bundles have become part of the solution now.

[Pablo Torre]

Right, okay. So, so one side note. Before we get to like, what is actually the nitty gritty of like the negotiation here, it is worth noting as we're speculating, like what is Google here potentially losing? They did offer this $20 credit to all 10 million of us ish who subscribe to YouTube TV. And so look, if all 10 million people claim via that link $20, that's $200 million. Now I think it's an opt in.

[David Sampson]

That's a dollar that not all 10 million people take the 20 bucks.

[Pablo Torre]

Which is why I presume they didn't automatically discount the 20 bucks from your bill. They made you click on the email that you might have filtered into your spam folder. But I thought that was indicated you upset about that.

[David Sampson]

Did you think they should have just given you a $20 credit, including to people who never use ESPN who aren't part of YouTube TV because of ESPN at all? Why should they get $20 back?

[Pablo Torre]

Yeah, I feel like, I feel like Google could afford it is my general perspective.

[John Skipper]

I don't actually understand why they did it. I mean, I guess it's, they think they're gonna make people happy. They're not going to change anybody's mind with $20. If you want to switch, you're going to switch. And so theoretically they put it at risk that they could pay up to 200 million. And by the way, they set a precedent. You're going to get another $20 next month. I don't know whether they're subtly trying to say, by the way, you're paying $20 for ESPN. They might be trying to do that sort of. It has that feel that it might be what you might think you were paying for.

[David Sampson]

That was my first thought, is I was surprised it wasn't 999. I was surprised that it wasn't a smaller number because it would be easy for someone to then extrapolate that. Oh, so this is the portion of YouTube TV that is ESPN and ABC.

[John Skipper]

I suspect, by the way, it's pretty close to it.

[Pablo Torre]

All of it does feel to the point of PR though, like, you know, that's their version of putting Bob Iger in a Packer's hoodie on the Manning cast. Here is a nice human gesture for all of us to Appreciate as we figure out, like are we getting a good deal or not? And the deal on the table. Right. So speaking of the, the jousting and, and the dispute over like what is actually at the heart of this dispute, it's worth noting that at Puck, John Orend, he reported that YouTube TV is attempting to negotiate rates that are lower for Disney content than the largest three paid TV distributors in the country. Aforementioned, Comcast, Charter, DirecTV. Disney has said apparently that no, we're not going to give YouTube TV a lower rate because that would trigger a most favored nation clause, which I am generally familiar with in the United nations context, but less so in this.

[David Sampson]

I don't know it at all in that context. I only know it in the business context. So, John, I'm just. When we want that clause, it just means what it means really. It's the I don't want to get screwed, Klaus.

[John Skipper]

It's a protection against somebody getting a better deal than you. And the MFN traditionally, I don't know what's in these agreements. Now, the MFN traditionally has been about price and it's not about a bunch of other things. It's not a general everything in this contract you get an MF in, it's you get an MFN on price. Again, it gets back to Disney. Can't give in on that. First of all, I don't, at least at espn there's no scale based rate difference. Right. Everybody pays the same thing. When I was there, ABC still was negotiating individually. They were behind because CBS was way ahead in terms of getting payments for the broadcast network. But they can't give the renegade company which is threatening Comcast and DirecTV and Spectrum. Oh, and you're, we're now going to give the guys who are taking subscribers from you a price break when they get bigger. It's just, I don't see how they can deal with that.

[David Sampson]

Yeah. So just to, just to put it in numbers, if, if Disney is charging $5 per subscriber per month for ABC and ESPN and that's the deal they have with Comcast, there's a deal with Charter, there's a deal with YouTube TV that says, okay, we will not have to pay more than that. Because if all of a sudden you do a deal with us where we pay $3, then all of a sudden the $5 deal goes down to $3. So it's price protection for Disney and it's I don't want to get screwed for YouTube TV. So they're called most favored nations. Just simply means that we're all going to be sort of Perry pursue. We're all going to be equal. And now you're going to have to gut it out to get more subscribers.

[John Skipper]

Now I don't know that you help yourself describing that by calling it Paris Perry pursue.

[Pablo Torre]

He plays second for the Twins, who in the 80s. Perry pursue. Listen.

[John Skipper]

Dominican shortstop.

[Pablo Torre]

That's right. The, the, the thing that's different though, right?

[David Sampson]

French.

[Pablo Torre]

The thing that's the thing that's different, isn't it? The thing that is different. As we debate romance languages. The thing that's difference here, a difference that's worth reckoning with. Is that what YouTube TV's argument here. And they by the way, have provided pushback to Awful announcing to give you a sense of just like how in the trenches they are in the sports media dispute here. They're saying, hold on, there's a difference. YouTube TV is the only carrier on a growth trajectory. Everything else is shrinking. It is managed decline because of course, you know, cord cutting and subscriber loss for those companies, the Comcast, the charters, direct TVs. But YouTube TV is saying all we want, according to their anonymous spokesperson who spoke to Awful announcing, is that when YouTube TV becomes the biggest, and that is possible, the largest paid TV distributor in the country next year, they want a rate that reflects a unique trajectory. And that is what, you know, Alphabet is saying, like, hold on, you're not totally giving us the best argument here.

[David Sampson]

Yeah. So if I'm Disney, that is not a compelling argument, which is that, hey, we're going to be so good at what we do. We're getting so many more eyes on ESPN that we want a bigger rate today. The answer is we do a deal given the information we have today. And if that's why you do openers in deals, in collective bargaining deals, there are sometimes openers if the world changes within a year or two years of a five year deal or opt out provisions and player contracts if the market has changed. Very rare. Do you get a premium based on what you suspect is going to happen? Even if the trajectory is such, there's no way they would get a premature premium from. I just wouldn't see that as possible.

[John Skipper]

Well, and I agree with that, but I think it's even more existential that you. It's, it's why Comcast has an MFN is I don't want anybody having an advantage over me. And the people they would least like to have that advantage are the ascendant YouTube TV.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes.

[John Skipper]

Subscribers. So I Don't see how they can agree to that. They'll have to. And by the way, I'm not sure that's what ultimately Alphabet expects. I think they are playing a little bit of PR there by moving the blame off of ESPN to abc.

[Pablo Torre]

They're also saying that right that they've agreed to the price for espn. The dispute now at the table is.

[David Sampson]

The price of ABC dollars are fungible. It's such a silly statement to make when you're negotiating a multi pronged deal. If you get a little discount here and a little premium there, you're still getting the number that you wanted.

[John Skipper]

And that may be what they're doing which is just negotiating. I never liked negotiating in the press, but that might be what they're doing is you're going to have to now it tells Disney because whatever they're asking for is what they want. Right. And it's just money. To your point. Disney has to figure out a way to go back and get them something that doesn't trip MFNs that is not essentially unfair. I would be looking for something that only YouTube TV can do to help the Walt Disney Company and giving them getting that back for something some price.

[David Sampson]

I've been thinking about the bundle solution. I've been thinking a lot about ESPN and Disney. They have so much money in their new app in ESPN app and what they're trying to do there that I, I keep wondering whether or not they're going to come up with something where YouTube TV has to have some sort of direct where you, all the clients, all the patrons have the ability to get the app for a discount or.

[John Skipper]

But that is the right solution, right? If you're at Disney, what you're trying to figure out is how can I actually help myself here on something that is a priority for me And I would think espn, the new direct to consumer service would be at the top of my list. Can you help me with that somehow and can I then reward you for that in a way which doesn't trigger the MFN and get you the same amount of money?

[David Sampson]

That's why I think that when the football games have been the pressure points in the past and I appreciate Iowan saying they want the college football game. I actually think it's bigger than football.

[John Skipper]

Forget Iowa. I would suggest that throughout this country there is a large path through the Southeast and the Midwest where they actually care more about college football than professional football.

[David Sampson]

I don't disagree. I just think that the negotiation that's happening right now between Google and Disney, I don't really believe it is solely sports based. I think as you would say, it's much more existential. There is a lot more business out there other than sports. And to wit, we saw Bob Iger go on the Manning cast and we in the sports media and me as a former team guy said, oh, Bob Iger's out there for pr. He's going to talk about this. He's got some talking points to get to the people who watch the Manning cast. Turns out the people who watch the Manning cast could give a flying rat's ass about the carriage dispute. They wanted to talk about Bob Iger liking the Green Bay packers and they wanted to know whether Iger would go for it on 4th and 6. While Peyton and Eli were telling their views, Bob Iger didn't mention a word about it. Not a word.

[John Skipper]

I guess he assumed that wouldn't do any good, right? If he thought that it would be helpful, he would have done it.

[David Sampson]

Exactly.

[John Skipper]

Now it is funny because he's talking to people who still have carriage, so maybe it's not the best place to reach the people who don't have carriage.

[David Sampson]

Preaching to the choir we call that.

[John Skipper]

Exactly.

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[Pablo Torre]

Look, one of the Subplots, by the way, in terms of the dynamic between Disney and Alphabet, particularly, is just a note here. Right. And Justin Connelly, who used to be Disney's president of platform distribution, he left Disney and there was a big controversy about that because he left to take the job of global head of media and sports at YouTube, the first such job. And he previously reported to Jimmy Pitaro, Eastman's chairman. He basically switched teams, according to the reporting, during negotiations. Lawsuits have ensued, settlements finally were reached, and Justin Connolly had to recuse himself from these negotiations. So the team is handling it without him. Which is to say, though, that this specific negotiation is clearly a. A very meaningful part of the Alphabet strategy for media and sports, as per the title mentioned.

[John Skipper]

Yeah, though. Though Justin's current job would not put him in the negotiation for this anyway.

[David Sampson]

They have only his institutional knowledge and he's still giving that to the people at the table.

[John Skipper]

No, he's not.

[David Sampson]

You think he actually recused himself and he's not saying a word. He sits in his office, doesn't take calls, no drinks. I'm sure that's exactly how it goes.

[John Skipper]

I realize you and I will disagree about this. Justin is a person of integrity. Part of the settlement was clearly you will not reveal any confidential information about. I actually believe that. I don't even know what to call them. Google, Alphabet, YouTube. They're going to abide by that because they don't need to get that information.

[Pablo Torre]

Well, what would they want to know, actually? Because I don't even know what strategy.

[John Skipper]

Yeah, they'd want to ask. Breakpoints, you'd want to say, yeah, where is the point of pain? What can we do? They're not going to get that from him because why would you. It's. He's just not going to do it. It's part of his settlement agreement for getting to go. He left, I assume for opportunity, not for to get involved in a dispute with his former employee where he worked for a long time and was very good at what he did. The big miss is not that he's given them information, it's that he is the most skilled negotiator or the most experienced negotiator. They may well have very smart people, I have no idea, but that they'll miss that a little bit. But other than that, they're not going to get anything. They don't need it for that. But it's not worth the risk.

[Pablo Torre]

There are statements, of course, as David just looks askew at you with love. I've laughed versions.

[David Sampson]

I'm laughing at your.

[John Skipper]

He just believes I'm naive.

[David Sampson]

No, not naive. I think that you have a certain way that you like to project yourself as this amazingly honorable, morally centered, compassed executive who believes that everyone should have the same amount of money. But you will literally, literally, you will knock people down. You will crush their existence in order to get an extra penny. I've been crushed by you. I've watched you do it. And the way you come out, it just makes me laugh. Like, oh, that was a long time ago. I don't feel that way anymore. It's so silly. Sorry. Go ahead, Pablo.

[Pablo Torre]

John Mamdani aside, though, I do want to get to this question of. Okay, let's now put the camera on charter Comcast, DirecTV. What the hell do they want out of this? What are they rooting for? What. What is, what ability do they have, beyond asserting their MFN status, to materially be relevant in what is happening here?

[David Sampson]

It's like stopping a train. It's stopping the sunrise. There's no. It's funny. If you're them, are you saying to yourself, hey, if we can have YouTube TV disappear, if they can lose all their subs, then maybe those guys will come back and our decline will actually turn into an incline? There's no possible way that they're saying that.

[John Skipper]

I don't think they're thinking they have any place in this negotiation or there's anything that's going to help them. And the only thing they're doing is telling their, the, the group at ESPN that does the negotiations. They're telling them, you better not give these guys any advantage over us. We've been doing business with you for a long time. Our business is already challenged. You can't make this any harder for us by giving them. And if you do, we're going to assert our mfn. I don't think they're doing anything else.

[David Sampson]

Nor do I think they're the beneficiary, either of it lasting another month, another year, or it being settled today. I really don't think what they're trying to figure out is what their business model is going to look like because the rate of decline has increased so significantly that they've had to push up their R and D into figuring out what we're going to do next in order to maintain shareholder price and be a viable company.

[John Skipper]

Is that. I actually don't know. Is it. Is the diminution of the pay TV universe still declining? Well, they're not sure it is.

[David Sampson]

Their part is. I mean, their part might Be. That's what I'm. That's what I'm referring to. Not the industry, obviously. Their part.

[Pablo Torre]

The rate of decline has slowed but is ongoing. I think that's the way.

[John Skipper]

Does that rate of decline include the growth of YouTube TV? Because it's funny that people don't think they're in the same category. They've actually arrested the decline. They simply move people over to a new carrier. And of course, what matters to them in this is their proposition to start with was we're going to be sports centric. That was their original proposition. And then their second proposition was we're cheaper. Right. They started 39.95. They're now. The average price now is $83. I think the other. I think probably the other distributors are probably a little north of there, but not much. And if they have to raise their price, which they would to cover this, and now they're $90, they're losing their. They're losing their financial advantage over the other distributors. So I guess that's the thing that the other distributors are hoping for.

[David Sampson]

Well, you called it. You called everyone a cable company and you called the consumers the losers, which they are. And you call the fact that everyone who pretends that they've cut their cord in order to save money as not having done that and the companies that are taking advantage of the people who cut the cord really look, smell and taste like a cable company, a traditional cable company.

[John Skipper]

It is. I mean, they just have a slightly skinnier bundle, which is why they can be somewhat cheaper. They do provide a good service. Right. I don't know whether digital service actually is better now than the other. Distribution is higher quality. I don't know whether it is or not.

[Pablo Torre]

Looks fine to me.

[John Skipper]

And by the way, I didn't call them losers. I said they might be the losers in this discussion.

[David Sampson]

Thank you.

[John Skipper]

Far be it for me to want.

[David Sampson]

To call the common man a loser.

[John Skipper]

Losers.

[Pablo Torre]

Yes.

[John Skipper]

That's not how. That's not how I want to project myself as I go back tonight and count the pennies in my bottom drawer and think about how I could steal a few more. I'm actually Ebenezer Scrooge when I get home.

[David Sampson]

That's right, Ebenezer.

[John Skipper]

What'd I say?

[David Sampson]

It may be Ebenezer.

[Pablo Torre]

I thought it's Ebenezer.

[David Sampson]

Ebenezer.

[John Skipper]

No, no, it is Ebenezer. Did I say something?

[David Sampson]

You were just so excited that you started talking quickly.

[John Skipper]

Okay.

[David Sampson]

It's what you do now. You never used to do that when you were running espn. You were quickly. No, you were much more slower and firm and you stood tall and ogre like you were much like Frankenstein's monster.

[Pablo Torre]

Actually.

[John Skipper]

I would challenge you to find anybody who would suggest I was ever ogre like in a discussion.

[David Sampson]

I would challenge you to find anyone within my industry who doesn't view you that.

[John Skipper]

Wow. Wow.

[David Sampson]

Not today. Today they love you with all their heart.

[John Skipper]

I'm the one who gave baseball a hundred percent increase in the last deal.

[David Sampson]

$2 is 100% over $1. Can't argue with that.

[John Skipper]

I like David, still smarting.

[David Sampson]

It's. It's. It's smart. That doesn't go away. Much as I try, I can forgive.

[John Skipper]

But I can't forget philosophically. I just fear if what you're saying is true. I simply followed your plan.

[Pablo Torre]

David is the Bob Cratchit of this Christmas parable.

[John Skipper]

It is.

[David Sampson]

Who's feeding you that?

[Pablo Torre]

I'm just making sure that people understand the lore of, you know, Ebenezer Scrooge. What? You don't think I know. You don't think I know those guys?

[John Skipper]

It is true. We think we have to describe what an MFN is, but just about as much of the audience probably does not know who Evan. Who Bob Cratchit is.

[Pablo Torre]

And. And that is a shame. And America is worse off for.

[David Sampson]

We are quite the show.

[Pablo Torre]

By the way, speaking of America being worse off for it in Wade's FCC chairman Brendan Carr to say about this ongoing carriage dispute between Disney and YouTube TV quote, Google and Disney need to get a deal done and end this blackout. People should have the right to watch the programming they paid for, including football. Get it done. Exclamation point.

[David Sampson]

Was it all caps?

[John Skipper]

Did he. Yeah. Did he suggest they could do it the hard way or the easy way?

[David Sampson]

Explain to people. That's the government. That's the president talking.

[Pablo Torre]

The federal government. That is Donald Trump effectively empowering Brendan Carr, the chairman, to. Yeah. Wade into this such a way.

[John Skipper]

Yeah. Who's a knucklehead who suggested that we could get Jimmy Fi. They could get Jimmy Kimmel off the air or perhaps ABC will lose its broadcast license. That is an astonishing thing for someone in that position to say.

[David Sampson]

But there are. It is true. But there are. There could be some pressure points if there are some deals that Google is working on, Ornament is working on that require approvals. You have to pay attention to what the chair is saying. You have to pay attention to what. It's like the president saying he wants to name commander Stadium. That's obviously laugh out loud until you need the president to do something.

[Pablo Torre]

So he's doing a broadcast in the Fox booth.

[David Sampson]

This is all I'm saying that there is, there are pressure points. What we talked about in negotiation, that's the biggest part of it is learning what are the points of pain.

[John Skipper]

And well, and certainly they will understand that in this administration they have no right to believe that they will behave in an ordinary manner of governmental business. They're not.

[David Sampson]

It causes you to act accordingly, of course, which makes the markets uneasy, which makes the earnings calls more interesting.

[John Skipper]

Of course, anybody who believes you know what mollifying Donald Trump does for you.

[David Sampson]

Gets you to the next subject.

[John Skipper]

It gets you to mollify him again. As the Democrats have just learned, you'll give in on the, the ugly effing bill. You will get to give in on the continuing resolution.

[David Sampson]

It is one of the reasons, when you think about negotiating with a bully on how you do it. And that's one of the things we would talk about. Not to make this about John, but when you're negotiating with ESPN as an industry, as a sports league, one of the things we talk about behind closed doors is, hey, we cannot indicate any willingness to budge on this for fear that he will mistaken this for the desire or the fact that we ever would budge on that. So these things. Stop laughing. The fact that you would cause these conference calls and cause meetings galore with coffee.

[John Skipper]

You were having, you were having conference calls about how to deal with that ogre.

[David Sampson]

Yes. Wow. You know that like it's, it's just the way he ends with you, Pablo, just makes me laugh. Oh, it's the first time hearing that I was an important part of the, the negotiations.

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[Pablo Torre]

What do you think we're about to learn here? Like, let's, let's look ahead. Like, this will have taught the industry both Silicon Valley as well as those that remain in traditional media, and, you know, the traditional media companies. What will we all have learned from this?

[David Sampson]

I'll start and I will say that we will learn that Google doesn't lose. And if I had to pick, choose a winner between Google and Disney, I would choose Google. I think that they've got the capacity to handle this dispute for much longer, much deeper, and they have no concern on their share price. They have no concern on their earnings. And while for Disney it is a blip, it is a more meaningful blip than it is for Google.

[John Skipper]

I think that there will be a resolution to this in the not too distant future because both parties actually want to come to some resolution. I don't think there's any reason that Google will want to embarrass Disney by saying, we won, we won. They'll come out with a statement says, we both won, we figured out something to do, we're happy to get our game, our service back in front of fans, and they move on.

[David Sampson]

I'll go on record, I'll say there will not be a resolution prior to the earnings call because I don't believe that Disney in any way would want to indicate to Google that, wow, this is our pressure point, the earnings call. I don't view it and I don't.

[John Skipper]

Actually think it is. I think it, I don't think it'd be that big a deal. And by the way, they're busy preparing for the earnings call. And at some point you would actually tell Bob, you should concentrate on the earnings call. He's not. My guess is that's the top priority for him is to get through this and you'll see a resolution either before money. The next Monday night game. I don't know what the game is or you'll see it in front of the. Right after the Monday night football game before the next weekend of college.

[Pablo Torre]

It's a, it's a, it's a Cowboys game though. John. Cowboys Raiders on Monday night.

[John Skipper]

Cowboys Raiders on Monday night's a good game. Neither one of them are very good, I don't think.

[David Sampson]

Remember, the government shutdown had to be solved by Thanksgiving by holiday travel. I don't find a moment. The next Monday night game is not Thanksgiving travel. The earnings call is not Thanksgiving travel. I don't think we have come to the edge of the cliff yet.

[John Skipper]

Well, I think it's possible they'll get it done before the next Monday night game or before the weekend or the next. You don't want to go into the Thanksgiving Day weekend, which is a wash with football, college and professional without the service. I think they'll get it done before Thanksgiving weekend.

[Pablo Torre]

I do think that, you know, to answer the question I posed before at the end here, like, what do you think if you're not one of these two behemoths arguing over, you know, dollars per month, you're thinking to yourself, if you had been under the boot of Disney before, there's always a bigger ogre.

[David Sampson]

Good job, Pablo.

[John Skipper]

Well, again, I'm not sure it's supposed to end. Oh, that's how I supposed to think.

[David Sampson]

That's it. I think that's what I think. You let him say that.

[John Skipper]

All right.

[David Sampson]

Well, that is show. We'll cut it off after this big moment. An ogre. I tried to have a through line.

[John Skipper]

Through the whole show. Is that what time we're scheduled to call at the end? Is he that good?

[Pablo Torre]

I. I love and hate both of you so much.

[David Sampson]

Goodbye.

[Pablo Torre]

This has been Pablo Torre Finds Out a Meadowlark Media production and I'll talk to you next time.

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[John Skipper]

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[David Sampson]

With TED Talks Daily, the podcast that brings you a new TED Talk every weekday. In less than 15 minutes a day.

[Pablo Torre]

You'Ll go beyond the headlines and learn.

[David Sampson]

About the big ideas shaping your future. Coming up how AI will change the.

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[Pablo Torre]

Listen to TED Talks Daily wherever you get your podcasts.

[John Skipper]

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