Podcast Summary

Podcast: Pablo Torre Finds Out
Episode: The Sporting Class: The Truth Behind the NBA Ratings Decline
Air Date: February 14, 2025
Host: Pablo Torre
Guests: John Skipper, David Samson

Main Theme & Overview

This episode of The Sporting Class on "Pablo Torre Finds Out" seeks to demystify the persistent narrative about declining NBA television ratings. Host Pablo Torre, alongside sports industry veterans John Skipper (former ESPN President) and David Samson (former Marlins President), humorously and analytically dissects how ratings are calculated, what they really mean, why the NFL continues its rise, and why the NBA’s business is thriving despite statistical dips in viewership. The discussion expands to the sports advertising economy, cultural influence, structural issues in broadcasting, the history of Super Bowl ads, and the NBA's international future – all delivered with sharp wit and insider storytelling.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Behind the Curtain: How Sports Ratings Are Made (08:24 - 16:55)

• The Myth of Exactness:
  The hosts immediately question recent “record-breaking” NFL Super Bowl ratings, calling attention to the lack of verifiability and inherent estimation in the numbers.

  • John Skipper (09:05):
    "There's no way to prove one way or the other that that is the correct number. ... It is accurate that that is not an exact measurement. ... It's a directional number."
  • David Samson (08:52):
    "The companies doing the ratings are in business with the companies televising the event. They both have interest in the numbers going up and being as big as they can."

• Out-of-Home Viewing and Streaming:
  Fox now incorporates streams like Tubi into its Super Bowl numbers, enabling larger figures. Out-of-home viewing (bars, parties, etc.) is a relatively new addition to ratings calculations, introduced in pandemic times to “stimulate” the industry.

• International Perspective:
  The American focus of Super Bowl numbers is contrasted with true global events like the World Cup.

  • John Skipper (09:41):
    "The US Super Bowl is a fraction of the worldwide audience for the World Cup Final, which is billion something."

2. The Disconnect Between Ratings and Revenue (14:29 - 17:51; 19:39 - 24:25)

• Rising Ad Costs, No Matter the Ratings:
  The price for Super Bowl ads has quadrupled over 21 years, despite audiences not quadrupling. The ad value increasingly comes from cultural currency and secondary digital life.

  • John Skipper (15:31):
    "The ad rates are going to go up whether ratings go up or not."
  • David Samson (17:43):
    "These ads now have lives outside of the Super Bowl. The release of the ads actually happens... on social media."

• Brand Awareness Over ROI:
  A Super Bowl ad is as much about launching or sustaining a brand as it is about immediate product sales—sometimes even when direct return is meager.

  • John Skipper (20:57):
    "We paid a couple of million bucks [for the ESPN phone ad]... forecast to sell about 250,000 phones and we sold about 90,000. As a return on investment, it did not work."
  • John Skipper (23:19):
    "I'm not skeptical about the value of buying an ad in the Super Bowl. It clearly gets the country's attention for a short period of time."

• Memorable Moment (Eyebrow Ads! 18:09):
  David Samson: "I'm not going to eat a Little Caesars because I love Eugene Levy's eyebrows."

3. How the NBA Differs from the NFL: Consumption and Perception (27:46 - 42:39)

• Current State of the NBA:
  Despite ratings narratives, NBA’s business is “ascendant” thanks to enormous media rights deals, not regular season TV numbers.

  • John Skipper (28:33):
    "My view is they are ascendant. And the deals they just did are much, much more important than whatever the regular season ratings are."

• Cultural Currency vs Viewer Numbers:
  The public’s obsession with NBA storylines and drama does not cleanly translate into people watching entire games on television. There is a generational/technological split in how NBA consumption occurs.

• Structural Dilemma: Scarcity & Schedule:
  The NFL’s short season and playoff structure make each game a “must-watch,” while the NBA’s 82-game grind dulls urgency.

  • John Skipper (31:49):
    "The product for the NFL is dramatically easier to consume... The NBA has an advantage that more people know their players.”
  • John Skipper (33:20):
    "The NBA is 88 [playoff games], and the NFL is 13."

• Maximizing Games:
  NBA has tried to elevate regular season value via in-season tournaments, Christmas games, and format tweaks.

4. Industry Adaptation: Rule Changes and Broadcast Windows (36:03 - 39:28)

• Pushing Two-Hour Games:
  Adam Silver’s floated idea of 10-minute quarters (from current 12) aims to reduce games to a tighter, soccer-style two-hour window, pleasing broadcasters and possibly fans.

  • David Samson (36:03):
    "The most important economic thing that he brought up was the possibility of going to 10 minute quarters."

• End-of-Game Drag:
  Aggravation over NBA’s endless late-game timeouts and reviews, with practical suggestions for reducing delays.

  • John Skipper (37:44):
    "I personally would not change the quarters. I would change the amount of timeouts and I would change what happens at the end of the game."

5. Measurement and Monetization: Reaching the Young (39:28 - 43:01)

• The Young Audience is There—But Not ‘Measured’:
  Adam Silver claims NBA’s drop in youth ratings is an artifact of changing media habits, not lack of interest.

  • John Skipper (40:14):
    "He is going to work with the companies, [who] are going to measure more out of home, they're going to measure more digital stuff."

• The PR Problem of "Decline":
  For leagues, concern is less about actual business health and more about the narrative.

• Aging Out:
  Samson humorously mourns that he’s no longer a demographic target for marketers, eliciting a mini-sociological discussion on ad spend and generational loyalty.

  • David Samson (40:47, 42:00):
    “There's not one league, there's not one company, there's not one anybody that is gearing anything toward me… I want to be targeted. I’m willing to change. I mean, not really, but maybe.”
  • John Skipper (43:02):
    “That's why they're not targeting you, because you're not going to switch. They gotta get the young folks. We've already made our choice.”

6. The NBA’s International Future: Expansion, Europe, and Competition (43:30 - end)

• Global League Expansion:
  Hints that the NBA may look to create a more formal European league, leveraging the global passion for basketball.

  • John Skipper (46:01):
    "I am much less skeptical of the idea of the NBA launching a league in Europe... Europe cares about basketball. ...It puts basketball on the way to being the world’s second big global sport."

• Potential ‘Rival’ Leagues: The Maverick Carter/Saudi-backed idea for a ‘Live Golf’-style alternative basketball league draws serious skepticism about its ability to lure top talent.

  • John Skipper (48:01):
    “I do not believe any of the top 50 NBA players will be attracted to the idea of going to play in a travel circuit against other marginal [players].”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "There's no way to prove one way or the other that that is the correct number. I'll start with that macro statement."
  — David Samson on Super Bowl ratings (08:52)

• "The companies doing the ratings are in business with the companies televising the event. ... They both have interest in the numbers going up."
  — John Skipper (12:13)

• "I'm not going to eat a Little Caesars because I love Eugene Levy's eyebrows."
  — David Samson (18:09)

• "We paid a couple of million bucks [for an ad], forecast to sell about 250,000 phones and we sold about 90,000. As a return on investment, it did not work."
  — John Skipper on ESPN phone Super Bowl ad (20:57)

• "Would you rather have the ratings go up 20% or the media rights go up 300%? ... They would say, I'll take the 300% increase in media rights."
  — John Skipper (28:33)

• "The NFL’s product is dramatically easier to consume. ... The NBA has an advantage; more people know their players."
  — John Skipper (31:49)

• "The most important economic thing that [Silver] brought up was the possibility of going to ten-minute quarters. ... It would help with every part of making it better for the union... [but] it would have issues with the record books, etc."
  — David Samson (36:03)

• "There's not one company that is gearing anything toward me. I want to be targeted. I'm willing to change. I mean, not really, but maybe."
  — David Samson (40:47, 42:00)

• "Basketball will be played at some not-distant point in 60, 70 countries in a serious way... The NBA can go to Europe and have a real league."
  — John Skipper (47:23)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Opening Banter/Dog Show Origins: 00:00 – 07:50
• Super Bowl Ratings: Numbers and Skepticism: 08:24 – 16:55
• Super Bowl Ad Economics/ROI: 14:29 – 24:25
• Movie/Pop Culture Tangent (Moneyball): 25:34 – 27:46
• Transition to NBA Ratings & State of the League: 27:46 – 31:49
• NFL vs NBA: Scarcity and Schedule: 31:49 – 36:03
• NBA Rule Change Discussion (Game Length/Timeouts): 36:03 – 39:28
• Digital Viewing, Measurement, and PR: 39:28 – 43:01
• International Expansion, Rival ‘Live’ Leagues: 43:30 – 48:38

Tone and Style

The episode exhibits Pablo Torre’s signature blend of playful sarcasm, hyper-current references, and “insider baseball” dialogue. Skipper and Samson provide a blend of candor (sometimes bordering on self-deprecating industry criticism) and genuine strategic insight, peppering the business analysis with jokes, tangents, and endearing asides.

Summary

This episode delivers a high-tempo and nuanced dismantling of the panic over “declining NBA ratings,” revealing the complexity (and often arbitrariness) of media metrics, the dominance of business deals over popularity narratives, and the capacity of sports to thrive culturally and economically—well beyond what the Nielsen box can capture. The dialogue offers a valuable behind-the-scenes look at how industry insiders actually think about “the numbers,” the evolving advertising landscape, and future paths for both the NFL and NBA in a changing global/streaming environment.