Podcast Summary: "It Was Always About Regime Change"

Part Of The Problem (Jan 13, 2026) with Dave Smith & Robbie "The Fire" Bernstein

Overview

In this episode, Dave Smith and Robbie Bernstein dive into the escalation of U.S. foreign policy rhetoric under Donald Trump, centering on threats against Iran, Venezuela, and other countries. The main thread: recent U.S. government and neoconservative actions aren't about specific threats like nuclear programs but about ongoing regime change ambitions. Dave unpacks the hypocrisy he perceives in U.S. interventionist logic, the moving goalposts of war justifications, and the domestic consequences of this posture. The hosts also reflect on Trump’s shift toward authoritarianism at home and relate it to reactionary policies on immigration.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Escalating Rhetoric & Foreign Policy Posture

[00:00-10:00]

• Dave notes that entering 2026, Trump appears more "unhinged, incoherent, and fundamentally juvenile and reckless" than ever, even compared to past controversies.
• Trump’s progressive threats extend to Iran, Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, and even Greenland:

  "In the last week, Donald Trump has threatened the shit out of Iran, out of Venezuela, Colombia, Mexico, Greenland..." (A, 04:10)

• Dave mocks the neocon shift among Trump supporters, recalling how even “America First” voters once bragged Trump was anti-war, but now justify his military buildup.
• Trump’s recent request for a $1.5 trillion war budget is called out as “dwarfing the budget he asked for for this year, which was the highest military budget in human history.” (A, 05:30)
• Robbie and Dave debate whether Trump’s “easy way or hard way” framework signals real intent or the usual pattern of strong words with little follow-through.

2. Iran, Protest Movements, & The Regime Change Playbook

[10:00-30:00]

• The Iranian protests are discussed as the latest pretext for anti-Iran rhetoric, with both anti- and pro-regime demonstrators making the situation opaque.
• Dave questions the authenticity of the U.S. and Israeli response, noting how the red lines shift:

  “We do know that the red line has been moved from 'Iran can’t be allowed to develop a nuke' to 'Iran can’t have 60% uranium'... to 'they’re shooting the protesters'..." (A, 10:30)

• The hosts highlight that death counts are unclear and likely influenced by Western/NGO sources, with causes of death ambiguous.
• Dave breaks down the double standard where “shooting protesters” justifies military action abroad, but the U.S. responds harshly to domestic unrest, likening it to the crackdown on January 6.
• The hosts mock the tendencies of U.S. hawks to perform sudden “humanitarian concern” for “women’s rights in Iran” while ignoring civilian deaths in Gaza:

  "But all of a sudden, Rob, they're humanitarians. All of a sudden what we're really worried about is the people in the Middle East... It's just... too fucking crazy." (A, 17:20)

3. The Hypocrisy of Interventionism

[19:48–23:45]

• Robbie argues that the propaganda for war is getting sloppier—"now it’s about oil, now it’s about fentanyl," with no one held accountable for changing the script.
• Dave: Trump and hawks admit the nuclear pretext is over, but instead "have to go to something else because they just spent so much time bragging about how they decimated the Iranian nuclear program." (A, 23:46)
• They highlight that being anti-intervention is mischaracterized as support for hostile regimes, when it's actually skepticism of the government's right and capacity to “liberate” others.

4. The Minnesota Police Shooting & State Power

[32:00–44:00]

• Dave and Robbie shift to domestic policy, discussing a Minnesota police/ICE shooting involving an undocumented immigrant.
• They analyze how both right-wing and left-wing camps become tribal when reviewing police violence, rarely changing their opinions with new evidence:

  "First a video comes out and it's very unclear...everyone digs their heels into a position, and then clearer and clearer videos come out, and almost no one changes their position from what it initially was." (A, 36:18)

• Dave, an immigration restrictionist himself, reflects on whether massive and showy ICE raids actually solve anything or simply inflame public sentiment, especially since only a tiny fraction of undocumented immigrants are actually deported.

5. What Conservatism (Should) Mean & The Neocon Co-option

[44:30–49:53]

• Dave pokes fun at right-wingers who think “being right-wing means fight a whole lot of wars all at once,” arguing that true conservatism is about wisdom, restraint, and tradition—not reckless adventurism:

  "To me, the essence of both right wingism and conservatism is wisdom at its best... Does playing with four wars at once sound 'conservative'? It’s reckless and infantile." (A, 47:16)

• He criticizes the neoconservative (and, as he notes, mostly ex-leftist) ideology that redefined conservatism to mean perpetual foreign intervention.

6. Trump’s Air Force One Remarks & Real Motives

[51:14–58:42]

• The hosts play two new Trump clips:
  • Trump is “getting hourly reports” on how Iran suppresses protests, hinting at possible military options:

    "We're looking at it very seriously. The military is looking at it..." (Trump, 51:47)

  • Trump claims Iran “called to negotiate,” but he might act militarily first:

    “Iran called... They want to negotiate. But we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting.” (Trump, 57:26)

• Dave emphasizes the absurdity of Trump refusing to engage in negotiated settlement, even though “this regime is desperate to negotiate with you, and your position is, no, I won’t.” (A, 59:43)

7. Venezuela, Oil Interests, and Corporate Engagement

[58:42–62:20]

• Robbie recounts how even ExxonMobil called Venezuela “uninvestable” despite Trump’s push for regime change framed as opening Venezuelan oil to the U.S. market.
• Dave notes the disconnect: no Trump voter ever campaigned for “regime change in Iran, Venezuelan oil, or Greenland”—the original appeal was no new wars.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On foreign policy goalposts:
  “We do know that the red line has been moved... as soon as all of those fall apart, it’s, oh, they’re shooting the protesters... Just if the regime shoots its own people, that's now a justification for war.” —Dave Smith, 10:30

• On shifting U.S. justifications:
  “It’s like the gang that they, that didn’t exist, that they just decided to abandon. Like, yeah... Like, we did this in their two neighboring countries... and they were both catastrophes.” —Dave Smith, 20:25

• On state violence domestically:
  “Isn’t it interesting, Rob, that simultaneously people are arguing that this, this protest movement is about to overthrow the regime... but then they’re also like, arguing that it’s so appalling that the Iranian police would shoot at them.” —Dave Smith, 36:00

• On what conservatism should mean:
  “Does playing with four wars at once sound 'conservative'? It’s reckless and infantile.” —Dave Smith, 47:16

• On propagandistic pretexts:
  “We become humanitarians when it’s, you know, Israel’s biggest regional rival. That’s when we start to really care about the people and the rights.” —Dave Smith, 18:30

• On militaristic hypocrisy:
  "Well, I mean,... they rule through violence, which is why we might bomb them." —Dave Smith, paraphrasing Trump, 51:47

• On negotiating with regimes:
  “This regime is desperate to negotiate with you, and your position is, no, I won’t. I refuse to. ... It does feel like that moment where you go, are we the baddies?” —Dave Smith, 59:43

Timestamps: Important Segments

• [00:00–06:28] — Show open, Trump’s posture, and the Bongino beef
• [10:00–13:00] — Iran protests, U.S. shifting justifications
• [17:00–18:30] — Hypocrisy: ignoring Gaza atrocities while becoming “humanitarians” for Iran
• [19:48–20:25] — Robbie on propaganda mistakes and shifting narratives
• [32:00–44:30] — ICE/police shooting in Minnesota, state violence, and immigration policy critique
• [44:30–49:53] — What conservatism should be; questioning neocon “right wing” definitions
• [51:14–58:03] — Trump’s Air Force One Iran threat, analysis and skepticism
• [58:03–62:20] — Venezuela, oil companies, and the disconnect with Trump’s actual voter base

Tone & Language

• The episode is candid, sarcastic, and unsparing toward U.S. hawks and Trumpian double standards, with both hosts using sharp language and irreverent humor. Dave continually points to the absurdity and hypocrisy of mainstream narratives and government justifications for intervention.

Conclusion

Dave Smith and Robbie Bernstein use this episode to expose what they see as the reality behind American foreign policy—regime change at any cost, justified with shifting pretexts and cognitive dissonance. They tie these trends back to domestic authoritarian tendencies, the erosion of liberty, and the betrayal of both conservative and libertarian principles. Listeners are left with a mix of outrage and dark amusement at the patterns in U.S. policy and the predictable cycle of escalation.