Dave Smith (6:58)
Yeah. You know, I think that the thing I say is that it's almost like there's this weird thing, right? There's. There's different dynamics with all of this. And there are some of the pro Trump people are like, bragging about this and going like, see, this is proof that tariffs work or something like that. And I look, I'll even. I'm willing to concede, right, that because. Because there are things that are like, you know, theory is one thing and the real world is another thing. And that doesn't mean, like, what works in theory will work in the real world or it's bad theory. I'm not saying, like, something works in theory and doesn't work in the real world, but sometimes in the real world, you come up against obstacles that you didn't account for in your theory. And so, for example, I could sit here and argue all day long that tariffs are bad for the economy and free trade is good, but if you're going to say, like, again, I used this example the other day when we were talking about it, Trump at the G6 meeting back during his first term. If Trump threatens tariffs, and then as a response to that, everybody brings their tariffs down and we make some deal where there's far lower trade barriers, then, okay, I can't argue that the outcome of this, you know, the outcome of threatening a bad policy led to a much better policy. I think the thing that's important to point out, and maybe this is even like a question for some of the, the Trump supporters who disagree with libertarians on this policy. But just like, be clear, what is it that we're talking about here? Because so often the way that Donald Trump talks about tariffs and the way lots of people in MAGA talk about tariffs is as if they're a good in and of themselves like that. They help the country. Tariffs help us get rich. They don't allow the Chinese to rip us off. They, you know, bring manufacturing back to the United States of America. They do all these good things. Well, if that's the case, then why are we pausing them for a month? Right? Like if, if, if the truth is that this is just good policy that will help America. So what are you telling me is the claim now that we're sacrificing something in order to get the 10,000 troops at the border? Like, that's, that's, that's okay, if that's the argument you want to make. But like, I'm just saying, like, which one is it? Like, is that the case? If you're saying that tariffs make us rich, then why would we pause them for a month? We, you know what I mean? Unless you're just saying the 10,000 troops was of more value than the tariffs would have been to us. But you do get my point here. These are different claims to make. There's one claim to say they can be used as leverage in negotiation to get toward good policies. I'm not sure I completely agree with that. Although, you know, look, I am to some degree an empiricist and I will adjust to the facts on the ground, okay? If the threat of Tariffs is working to get good policy through, then I can't really argue with that. But if you're saying the tariffs themselves are good, then why are we messing around and why are we only doing like 10%? Like, why not? You know what I'm saying? Like, why not go for 50% tariffs or 100% tariffs or why not 300% tariffs? Like, if tariffs are so great and they are good in and of themselves, why don't we just tariff the whole world? I mean, like, no, I'm not saying that that in itself, that question proves anything, but I think you would, if you're being honest, have to admit, like, yeah, that's an important question to get at. It's, it's, it's a reducto absurdum, similar to, like when people go, you know, if people say, oh, you're a terrible person if you don't support a $20 an hour minimum wage. And you're like, well, why not? Are you that much better of a person if you support $1,000 an hour minimum wage? And so I'm just getting at the point of like, because it seems sometimes like it's a moving goal, like a moving target. Like, what, what exactly is the argument here? Because my argument is fairly simple, and that's that actually instituting tariffs are going to hurt Americans. It's going to hurt more Americans than it's going to help. It'll be good for a small group of people and then bad for a much bigger group of people. So if that's the case, if I'm right, then okay, it's fine to threaten them and pause them to get something you want. But if you were, but, but then essentially recognize that the threat still is that you're going to punch yourself in the face. And the problem with threatening to punch yourself in the face as a negotiation tactic is that what if someone calls your bluff? Like, what if they don't do what you want them to do? And then you're left with what, following through on your threat to hurt yourself? I mean, tariffs are going to raise prices, they're going to lead to higher prices of goods. I think we've gotten a little taste over the last four years of what that does to the average American. And, and again, in the example of price inflation, which, that was a, that was true inflation. It was a result of the increase in the money supply. But look, it was good for a small number of people. It was good for people who are speculators. It was good for people who own a lot of assets. But it was terrible for everyone else. For every regular person who just works a job. It's a nightmare for you if your grocery prices go up by 20%. And likewise, you know, like, look, just think about, if you just think about it in terms of like, economic laws. What, you know, like, nothing magically changes outside of our government borders. Like, obviously there is such a thing as a nation and you want to have control over who's allowed to come in and who's not allowed to come in. And you could even argue you want to preserve the uniqueness or the culture of that nation. But when you're talking about economic laws, none of that exists. That's just, you know what I mean? Those, those are other forces. If you're talking about economic laws. Okay, so there's a, there's a factory in Mexico producing something. We're going to tariff them. Okay, well, why wouldn't that work with the factory within the United States of America? I mean, like, why. Maybe there's just one factory and we could tariff the shit out of that factory, you know, and then like, oh, yes, that would help the factory that's competing with them. But I think you could recognize pretty quickly it would hurt everybody else. Well, likewise, you know, like, we've, we've talked about these examples a million times before. But if you're going to go down the road of believing that some, a foreign government producing something for cheaper is hurting us. This is what Bob Murphy said years ago, that I always really liked it. Then you'd have to argue that it would hurt us even more if a foreign government was to give us stuff for free. But now look at what you've been reduced to arguing. You're arguing that someone giving you something for free makes you poorer. And that's just a really, really tough argument to make. I mean, like, that is like, and we're not talking. It's not comparable to like welfare. We're not talking about the forced sub subsidy or forced, you know what I mean? Anything. You're just talking about trade. Now again, if you're going to go, if you're going to go down this line and argue that cheap Chinese goods are hurting the American economy, then you'd have to say that free Chinese goods would be devastating to the American economy. The worst thing in the world would be if other people produced stuff for us and gave it to us for free. But again, just think about what you're reduced to arguing there. Like, think about how. Because look, there are things that we get for free like, that we don't really think about. Frederick Bastiat gave examples of this. Right. But like, oxygen is essentially not an economic good because it's just everywhere. We just all have it. And believe me, if oxygen wasn't everywhere and we had to work really hard to produce oxygen, that would become a very important resource very quickly. Okay? And so we'd have to work to produce it. Are you arguing that that would be better? Would it be better if oxygen just wasn't free and available everywhere? Or like sunlight wasn't available during the day and we had to put in grueling, like, hours of labor in order to get those things? Because there'd be more jobs. Like, yes, there would be more jobs, there would be more production within America, but it would be people working towards something that we already have. And like, I, you know, I don't mean to be all Lobert about this, but I do think it's important to understand economic realities here, especially since this is such a major issue right now that, that Trump, again, I gotta say, kind of speaks out of both sides of his mouth on, like, I'm not sure what the argument is here. Are they a good negotiating tool or they are good in and of themselves? Because if they're good in and of themselves, then you're essentially embracing this crazy economic model where, you know, it's. There was this old story, I always forget the details on it, but I believe it was Milton Friedman. He was visiting some country, I think it was in the former Soviet bloc after the fall of the Soviet Union. And he's talking to the guys and they have this big shovel ready project and there's like a thousand workers outside and they're shoveling. And he goes, well, why are you, like, why don't you use an excavator? Why are you using a shovel? You know what I mean? And he goes, no, Mr. Friedman, you understand this is a jobs project. And Milton Friedman said, well, then why not use spoons? You know? And like, I think that alone, it just gets you thinking about economics the way you should think about them. Like, a jobs project isn't what you want. You want productive jobs that produce things that other people want to consume because they think it makes their lives better. That's what's important. Otherwise we could have jobs programs. Like, the Soviet Union had full employment before they went bankrupt because everyone had a government job. But that doesn't make you rich. That doesn't. I could, you know, I could hire somebody tomorrow and be like, hey, there's some big boulders in my yard, go Outside and pick them up and then put them down and then pick them up and then put them down. And that is really hard work. You're going to do that for eight straight hours. That's got a really grueling job. And look, I just created five jobs. But that's not success. All I've done is drain myself of resources to pay five people to do something that doesn't produce anything. No, it's good actually. Ashcolly. It's good when there are, when there's creative destruction. It's good when one person can do the job that a hundred people used to be able to do because those hundred people can now go do other things. You know, they can go produce other things. And this is, by the way, this is how economies grow. This is, there are lots of different jobs that are just out of service now that are not jobs anymore. There is no horse and buggy salesman. You know what I mean? Like, there is, I mean, okay, they're in small numbers because it's kind of like quaint to us and it's a novelty now. But like that industry got put out of business, but that's okay. We got better things that people like to ride in better, you know, and like, so I, I do just think that there is this look, I guess essentially what I would kind of conclude here is that, look, there is something that libertarians have to admit that is like, okay, look, you can use the threat of very non libertarian policies and it might even get a more libertarian outcome based on that threat. But I do think that the people who are supportive of these tariffs have to acknowledge this. Like this question is that when we said we're going to pause the 10% tariffs on Mexico, is that a sacrifice that we're making? Is it like, oh, we would be better off if we instituted this now, but we're sacrificing this to get the 10,000 Mexican troops on the border or is the benefit of the tariffs just to threaten them in order to get that extraction? And I don't think I've heard a good answer that because like it can't be both. It's got to be one or the other here. And anyway, my humble argument to you, not so humble, I'm right. But my argument would be that if Trump actually is serious about instituting these tariffs, some of them I think have already gone through, that's going to be bad for the U.S. economy. And this is right at the set. Like if you're rooting for Donald Trump to be successful right at the center of it is he's got to be great on the economy. He's got to deliver, right? Like it doesn't, all the other stuff kind of doesn't matter if people aren't happy with the economy because that's what people care about the most and, and rightfully so, that's their lives and their livelihood. It makes sense that they would care about that. But I do think that like I'd like to get a good answer on that question and I have not gotten one yet. Any, any thoughts on any of that, Rob?