Robbie the Fire Bernstein (5:03)

It's going to be exciting to see how he celebrates himself amidst a failure of a year. So I'm sure we're going to hear about how tariffs are saving the country, and he's still gonna do it even though we got a corrupt Supreme Court. I'm sure he's gonna talk about how we're cleaning up South America and we're taking out these drug lords. I'm sure we're gonna hear about stability in the world thanks to the fact that we're no longer a weak country. But it's gonna be quite fascinating to watch him celebrate himself amidst a low, a low voter, low poll numbers and just overall discontent with, with Donald Trump.

Dave Smith (5:40)

Yeah. From what I've, from what I've read, it's the, the word on the street is that it's going to be a long speech. He wants to go long. He went long last year. It was a really long speech last year. He wants to give a long speech because there's so much to talk about, so much success.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (5:55)

And so if you're Donald Trump celebrating yourself, that's kind of your favorite topic.

Dave Smith (6:00)

Well, that is true. No, I mean, look, this is what he'll, he'll get up there and talk about how great he is. Honestly, my prediction for it is kind of boring. Like, I just think it's, I don't know. I just, I find it boring to listen to Donald Trump tell you how great Donald Trump is for two hours, which I have a feeling is what we're going to get. And I, Yeah, I mean, if I, my, my guess would be basically what you said, Rob. Right. Bragging about how great everything is. He will, he will tonight. Here's my prediction. He will simultaneously brag about what a success the 12 Day War was and talk about how we need to go either reach a deal or start a war with Iran. Right. Like, I guarantee you both of those things will be. And he'll brag about the success of Venezuela. He'll brag about the success of, you know, whatever, every program that he's had, the tariffs, he'll, he'll knock the Supreme Court for shooting it down. These are all my predictions for it because they'll be right there in the front row. He'll knock them for that, how ridiculous it is and blah, blah, blah. But I will say that I think, not that Donald Trump, I don't think he has any ability to do this. Not because of his own ability. I mean, just given the situation. But. Well, let me say it like this. I, I, from my sources, I've talked to some people who are close to this matter, who, who would know, and the, it's looking like the Hawks, what I'm hearing is that the Hawks have convinced Donald Trump and that he's, or if not convinced Donald Trump, let's say, maybe convinced isn't the right word. They've assured that he will be doing what they want him to do. And so I, it does look to me like an attack on Iran is imminent. But, um, and in. If that's the case, Rob, then if you're giving a State of the Union address, right, which still to this day, because there's not much that still has, like, cache anymore in Americana, you know, like, like, not everyone's going to watch the Tonight Show. Not even everyone's going to watch the super bowl halftime show, right? Like, half of the people are switching over to the other one. But the State of the Union is kind of something that, well, everyone who loves Donald Trump, everyone who hates Donald Trump, everyone who can't, you know, like, people watch that, it'll get clipped up, it'll get dissected on, on podcasts. People will talk a lot about it. And so if you have made the decision that you're going to go to war, Right, Rob? And this is a war that, depending on which poll you trust, 75 to 80% of the American people are against. And, you know, you know, Rob, like, I've, you know, I've been an adult for an adult amount of time. Like, I've been, I've been an adult for, you know, adult, you know, more than the legal voting age amount of time. And, you know, I've just, I've seen a lot of wars play out, and most of the wars that I've seen the US get involved in were reasonably popular at the beginning. They usually start at their most popular, and then as the costs of war become clear, they get less and less and less popular. So you're in a situation where about 75 to 80% of the people are against a war that you want to launch. And, you know, that's the starting point. So, anyway, I guess my point is you got your biggest speech of the year, your biggest platform, and you got a war that you're about to launch that's enormously unpopular. It seems like this is your opportunity to try your best to really sell the American people on why we gotta go start dropping bombs on Tehran. And you can't go with the truth, which is that, yeah, we know it's a stupid idea. But we have to do it because Israel wants us. That's probably not going to work. So we'll see. But you know, again, I don't think, I just don't think there's much of a pitch that he can make tonight because I don't know. Rob, what can you say about this? All right guys, let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show which is Prolon by El Nutra. Prolon is a revolutionary plant based nutrition program that nourishes the body while making cells believe they're fasting does. Researched and developed for decades at the University of Southern California's Longevity Institute and backed by leading US medical centers, Prolon helps promot healthy blood sugar, supports cardiovascular health and reduces abdominal fat. But Prolon isn't a diet. Prolon is science. Science based on Nobel prize winning discoveries in medicine. And it all starts with Prolon's five day program. Soups, snacks and beverages all designed to keep your body in a fasting state. It's unlike anything you've experienced. 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Robbie the Fire Bernstein (11:40)

I guess his only pitch is I slapped him once. They didn't get the lesson. We're going back to slap him again. But this time they're gonna give it all up. They love me. They're gonna give up the nukes. I mean, what's the claim here, bud? What's the pitch?

Dave Smith (11:56)

Al? Did you, you know, one of the, the things that been, I guess disappointing but shouldn't really be surprising but is it does seem like it's not just the stock of Donald Trump that's gone down tremendously over the last year but it seems like the stock of every major figure associated with the administration. So obviously you could think, you know, Cash Patel or Dan Bongino, that Tulsi Gabbard and the, you know, the she pulled during the 12 day war. I don't think she'll ever really reputationally recover from that. And the most recent one to me was, and we didn't talk about this on the show the other day because Tucker Huckabee kind of eclipsed everything. By the way, should pause there and mention. Did you see Rub that? I mean, it was pretty great. But that Huckabee actually caused like a legit, like international fucking outrage. Like a legitimate, like diplomatic, diplomatic, like catastrophe where there was this open letter that was signed onto by like every country in the region being like, yeah, what are you say, did you just say that Israel has the right to take over the whole Middle East? Which really was the absolute last thing that the Trump administration needed, you know, as they're trying to get ready to launch a war in a region where most of the regional players don't want the war. And then you're sitting there and you're like, ah, shoot. When you kind of need them to be on board as much as possible, then your, your ambassador to Israel goes and pisses them all off by telling them that God promised their land to Benjamin Netanyahu. But anyway, so that was kind of amusing. But the most recent one I did think was Witkoff, who at least to some degree had remained like, kind of seemed like a figure who was like, maybe trying to figure out some of these deals here. I mean, obviously he wasn't perfect, but he did put some pressure on the Israelis back over a year ago when he first got that initial cease fire. It was like, maybe he's at least somebody who's trying. And then the stuff he said the other day in this interview with. Was it Laura? Trump is interviewing Witkoff here, which seems like shouldn't happen, but you know what I'm saying, like, just seems like that's probably not the way it should ever go. But here, let's play the, the, the clip of Witkoff the other day. Truly, like astounding stuff.

Witkoff (Interviewee) (14:33)

It's, it's up to 60%. They're probably a week away from having industrial, industrial grade bomb making material. And that's really dangerous. So I can't have that. This is something that they have to stick with until they prove to us that, you know, they can behave.

Dave Smith (14:53)

I know that we have red lines.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (14:55)

You got to pause there.

Dave Smith (14:56)

Yeah. How about over with Iran?

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (14:58)

Because just off the bat, what that tells you is that Trump lied when he said totally obliterated. And we had pointed out at the time, how can you say that they're within a week of a breakout period and that you did one targeted strike and supposedly destroyed one of their nuclear facilities, but you don't know where they put the enriched uranium. But it's problem solved, lesson learned. And now, as we expected, what is a six, seven months later, oh, they're still within a week of a bomb. And actually, when we struck them the last time, we didn't accomplish anything.

Dave Smith (15:29)

Yeah, right. Now, first of all, I mean, the thing is that Witkoff here is just lying. It's just straight up lying. There's no, there's just no evidence at all that there are. And in fact, Netanyahu. Oh, I can't remember off the top of my head what interview this was, but Netanyahu admitted as much recently that, like there, yeah, it would be like a few years before they actually can get a. Develop a nuclear weapon. So this is just nonsense. But you do make a fair point that of course it is completely contradictory to what the official talking point of the administration has been that they set them back years. Like, they set them back years. They obliterated their nuclear program. Now, I think the reality of the situation is actually somewhere in the middle, you know, so. Right. And you said you were just doing some deep dives on this, Rob. But. So you know this stuff. But essentially, right, the, the positioning was always the idea of being a nuclear threshold state is to have the deterrent. And now Iran is not the only nuclear threshold state. There's Japan and South Korea, both are as well. I think Brazil as well. But so I don't. I'd have to check on that. I'm not sure. But so the, the idea is like, well, look for Japan or for South Korea, look, you got China right there, you got North Korea right there. They all have nuclear weapons. So the idea is that you don't have nuclear weapons, but you're letting everyone know that you are capable of making them if you want to. If we needed to, we could start making nuclear weapons. And so the Iranians, this was their essentially response to 911 to being put on the axis of evil. And right, there were, if you think about it, on the. So after 9 11, the George W. Bush puts three countries who had absolutely nothing to do with 911 on the axis of evil. It was Iraq, Iran and North Korea. And I've long suspected North Korea just got on there. So it wasn't so obvious that this was all about Israel. Like, they just threw one on there to be like, no, you too. But. So North Korea raced to get a nuclear weapon and they got one. And we've left him alone ever since Iraq turned over all Their stuff welcomed in the U.N. inspectors said, we don't have anything, we're not developing nuclear weapons. We went in and deposed him, hung him, killed Saddam Hussein, destroyed the whole country. Muammar Gaddafi totally waved the white flag, said, I'll turn over all the chemical weapons I have, I'll turn over my nuclear everything, whatever you want went in there, sodomized him to death, destroyed the country. So Iran tried to meet in the middle and they went, okay, look, we're going to start a nuclear program, but we're not going to make a bomb and we don't want to make a bomb. But you know, you attack us and you never know, maybe that will change. So this is what we've been saying for years and years, right? And then of course, when Trump pulled out of the jcpoa, while they ultimately started upping their enrichment and it's pretty obviously so that they could have a negotiating chip to negotiate away. And what is it that they want? Right? Well, they want pretty clear what Iran wants. What Iran wants is security guarantees. Just don't attack us and sanction relief. That's what they want. And so they bring it up to 60% and then they go, okay, we'll negotiate. And we could negotiate coming back down to the 3 to 5% that we were under when Obama was in the JCPOA. And so then of course Trump insists, no, there's got to be zero enriched uranium or whatever, and they go, well, we can't do that, but we could come down to where we were. Then Israel sneak attacks them, they do all this. But as we had been saying for a long time, right? So up until, I'm not sure I'd have to double check this. But up until the 12 day war, Iran were still members of the non proliferate, the Non Proliferation Treaty in good standing. They were still members of the JCPOA on top of that. So they had a whole inspections regime that was coming into Iran. So we, we knew they were at 60% uranium. Well, how do we know it? Because the, the, the IAEA was inspecting them and they could measure, okay, they're at 60%. So we knew they were at 60% enriched uranium. Now, in order to break out and actually develop a bomb, they would have had to kick the inspectors out or we would have watched that, you know what I'm saying, or developed it right in front of them, which would have put them in violation of the agreement. But if they had kicked the inspectors out, then they could have raced to a bomb theoretically. And all the best estimates that it would still take them years even if they did that. But according to our own annual threat assessment from that year that Tulsi Gabbard had submitted and testified to before Congress, just that they haven't even made the political decision to get a bomb. So they haven't even decided they want to get a bomb, let alone start taking the steps toward that. But just to be clear, we always said if, if you really don't want them to see them make a bomb, then don't attack them. If you attack them, they might make a bomb. That was kind of the standoff, you know, it was like, hey, we could make a bomb, but we're not going to, so don't attack us. Or we might. We called that bluff. Or we called that. We'll see whether it's a bluff or not. But since then, since the 12 Day War, well, immediately afterward, the Ayatollah kicked the inspectors out. The jcpoa, I think, is essentially over now. And I think, again, I'd have to double check this. I think they have let some inspectors back in limited quantity, but, like, we have far less eyes on them now than we did back then. So, yeah, Rob, like, we are in a situation now where, like, we don't know where they move that in enriched uranium. We don't know what they, what efforts they've been making to try to rebuild. And so, like, it's not now Witkoff, just saying they're a week away. That's stupid. No reasonable person thinks that. But the point is that there, yes, we, like, if your goal was for Iran to not get a nuke, well, then, yes, you retards have handled this in the dumbest way possible. And you've put us in the most precarious position about, you know, as far as that's concerned. So we don't really know at this point. And I don't know. I mean, I don't. You know, I, I've never, like, said Iran will never get a nuke. In fact, I've always thought that, like, if they were going to get one, this is the type of thing that might push him toward it, for obvious reasons. 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Robbie the Fire Bernstein (23:45)

Yeah. Well, I agree with you. I don't think they're a week away, but I think the administration trying to lie to us again and say that they are a week away contradicts what they were saying earlier.

Dave Smith (23:56)

That's for sure. Yes.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (23:57)

Expose that the last effort was a failure. And I think it also just speaks to why these half measures are really stupid. Because even now it sounds like Donald Trump's trying to flirt with. Well, we're going to see in a second that Donald Trump is a little bit surprised that they're not just acquiescing to his grandiose.

Dave Smith (24:15)

Let's get to that. Sorry, go ahead.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (24:18)

Even before we play that, if you think that you're now just going to do a targeted strike and then that's what's going to get them to go, oh, Donald Trump really means business. You might also actually just be pushing them to go nuclear because here they are, they're actually not aggressing towards anybody and now you want them to give up their ballistic missiles program, which what deterrent then do they have to not just be stricken by Israel or for you to show up more aggressively and if now they don't have a nuke and you guys are just, you know, outright flirting with a full out war with them or hey, we're going to come in here by force, I Don't know, you might, that might be what pushes them over the edge and goes, hey, we actually need a nuke because otherwise they're going to be coming here with boats every couple months and threatening to take, take over our country.

Dave Smith (25:02)

So, yeah, I mean, well, look, it's, it's Rob, I mean, and look, I guess you could make the, the kind of exception for like there's been some US Weapons and then just recently, I think there was British weapons that were fired at a, deep into Russian territory by Ukraine. But even that is still through a proxy. But if you think Since World War II, the American War machine that we've, you know, has come to dominate the world and all the wars that our government in the name of us has launched, all the just bloody wars of aggression, I mean, I'm saying all of them, whether it's the Korean War and the war in Vietnam or the war in Serbia, war in the Balkans, the war in Iraq, the Persian Gulf war, then Afghanistan, Iraq again, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, our interventions in Nicaragua and Venezuela, in Cuba, in, you know, Honduras, it just go all through the list. All the wars. One thing all the opponents have in common is that they don't have nuclear weapons. We just don't really with nuclear armed countries in the same way. The closest I guess you could come is that we had a, we had a pretty big drone war campaign in Pakistan, but we ultimately stopped when they really pushed back on us. And so, yeah, if you are Iran at this point, it might seem like, pretty reasonably like, yo, the Israelis and the Americans are just going to keep fucking with us until we get a nuke. So you certainly heavily incentivize that. But here, let's, let's play that portion of the Witco. Is that coming up next year, Rob?

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (26:45)

Yes.

Dave Smith (26:46)

Okay. Yeah, yeah, let's play, let's play the rest of this.

Witkoff (Interviewee) (26:50)

The president asked me that this morning and he's, I don't want to use the word frustrated. It's almost because he understands he's got plenty of alternatives. But it's curious, he's curious as to why they haven't, I don't want to use the word capitulated, but why they haven't capitulated. Why under this sort of pressure, with the amount of sea power, naval power that we have over there, why they haven't come to us and said, we profess that we don't want to be, we don't want a weapon. So here's what we're prepared to do. And yet it's hard to Sort of get them to that place.

Dave Smith (27:24)

Well, there's that pressure. There's also pressure from within right there. I mean, I don't like it's. It's hard to conclude anything other than Witkoff is lying here. You know what I mean, Rob? And he's just lying through his teeth.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (27:37)

Well, I think he's lying about. He's still framing it like this is just an effort to keep them from getting nuclear missiles and, or going nuclear. And I think that that's a very easy thing to negotiate, and that's why that's not what they've put forward as being the negotiations. The negotiations include no more ballistic missiles, at least from the last I read. And I think there might be pushing for zero enrichment. I'm actually not sure about that.

Dave Smith (28:02)

They said it several times. Yeah, I don't know exactly what's going on in the, in the private indirect negotiations, but they've certainly publicly restated the poison pill from last summer over and over again that it's zero percent enrichment. But then they go quite a bit further and they go, and you have to get rid of all your intercontinental ballistic missiles that are long range enough to touch Israel and you have to stop supporting all of your proxy groups in the region. And the reason why I say Witkoff must be lying here is just Rob, like what Witkoff has specialized in is negotiating these deals over the last year plus, and really he started up right after November of 24, so really almost a year and a half of that and to go. You're still presenting this as if, as it's a mystery why Iran wouldn't capitulate. Hold on, I don't want to say capitulate, but. Yeah, that's really the only word I can think of. Capitulate. Right. So like, why is it a mystery? Look, is it a mystery why any, any government would say you're not allowed, would, would not agree to someone saying you're not allowed to have an energy program, a completely legal, legit energy program. Is that a mystery to anybody? How about this? How about the. Well, let me just say this and then you go ahead, Rob. The intercontinental ballistic missile demands. Just think about it like this, okay? Way back a month ago, there were like some big protests in Iran, in fact, very violent riots and then some big pro regime demonstrations. But forget about that because that doesn't fit with the narrative. But as soon as that was happening, as soon as there were uprisings against the regime, every hawk in America and the entire Israeli government all went. Now's the time you got to take them out because they're weak. This is. If we sense weakness, we're going to take out this regime. And then they go. And then Witkoff is going to tell us that he doesn't understand why they won't agree to completely disarm. Like, dude, we all know, I mean, this is such an obvious game, but what happened during the 12 Day War, right, was that Israel was getting fucking touched up. And once their big play of threatening all the generals and their families so they could overthrow the regime, once that didn't work, Netanyahu was kind of caught with his pants down. And then eventually it was like, all right, well, maybe this isn't really working. And in fact, there were a lot of reports that over the, when he first, when the protests were going on, they're like, oh, shit, we don't have enough military hardware. They're very concerned about the fact that, like, once we attack Iran, Iran can attack us back. So now the deal is you just have to agree to remove your ability to attack us back. Well, everybody knows what Bibi Netanyahu would do then, because, like, if they get rid of those intercontinental ballistic missiles, then Israel, they would be fine with that deal because then they don't even really need America's backup. Now, there might be other things they need, right? Like they didn't have the bunker buster bombs that we dropped on Ford. O. But essentially, if Iran can't touch Israel back, then Israel just has open season to attack Iran whenever they want to. So the idea that Wyckoff, if you're, if you're telling me here that the President is curious about this, Come on, dude, you got to know the answer to this. It's just too ridiculous. I'm sorry, Rob, Go ahead. What were you going to say?

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (31:39)

So, firstly, I don't know, maybe there's a possibility that this is all just posturing, and maybe they got some plan that they're going to Maduro the Ayatollah, and we're going to have some great sitcom of Maduro, the Ayatollah, and the old head of. Of the cartels in prison together. But here's what I'm hearing, and I actually don't think Witkoff's lying here. I think that there are some smarter people around Donald Trump that have introduced these poison pills because they're actually looking for regime change. And I think Donald Trump has enough gusto and bluster that he's of the belief of other people don't have autonomy. And if I said that someone's gonna do something and I threaten them, they're gonna acquiesce. And the idea that Donald Trump isn't was in a way bluffing here and is completely surprised by the fact that Iran hasn't just rolled over, that does not shock me. It does not shock me that Donald Trump believed that after the last strike, if he moved enough military gear in there, Iran would just go, all right, you know what, we don't want this action. What do you need from us? And you and I both understand enough about foreign politics, even though I've barely studied it to go. A regime wants to remain in power. That's their main goal. And so they're not going to just make it easier for them to attack down the line. They're interested in their own self survival and if anything, you're pushing them towards needing a nuclear warhead. But the idea that Trump doesn't believe in his own greatness enough, that threats will just get people to acquiesce, I'm not actually surprised that Donald Trump might believe that.

Dave Smith (33:11)

Yeah, I mean, okay, so to be clear, yes, I believe very much that Donald Trump, that is his thinking. Because why aren't they just backing down? We're so much stronger and we keep threatening them. I just don't believe that Witkoff doesn't know what's going on here.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (33:26)

Yeah, I think it really speaks to, well, then what's the plan here? If it was Donald Trump's plan, really, he's going to move the entire military over there and, you know, Iran was just going to roll over. And if that was, hey, the genius 4D chess guy. And if that was his plan and that didn't work. So it sounds to me like Donald Trump doesn't have a great plan and you are flirting with white. Might escalate into a full war. This sounds to me like it validates all of our criticisms of Donald Trump and the actions he's currently taking in Iran.

Dave Smith (33:57)

Yeah. You know, I don't know if you saw today, but Turkey was threatening to invade the country if the, if the regime collapses.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (34:08)

Oh, invade, take over Iran?

Dave Smith (34:10)

Well, not necessarily. I think their, their goal was that they were like, look, like. I think essentially what they were saying was that they were, they're very concerned about the potential migrant crisis because they're going, hey, if you guys are saying here that your plan is to overthrow this regime from the skies, like you're not going to have a ground invasion, which nobody's really been talking about, I don't see any way that Donald Trump's going to invade the country. Something really big would have to happen there. But like, that you're talking, I mean, if you're talking about a ground invasion of Iran, you're talking about something many times more complicated and difficult than invading Iraq. And again, like I said, you're going in with the overwhelming majority of the Americans opposing this. And I just, I just think there's no type. Like, it's not like immediately after 9 11, when we're essentially coming out of the 1990s or just a different country. We have been hit on 9 11. There was major political will to, like, we got to go do something about this. There's just no political will right now to go start seeing our boys getting chewed up in, in, you know, fighting with insurgents in, in Iran. But I guess from Turkey's perspective, they're like, hey, listen, if you're saying you're just going to topple this government through bombing campaigns, and then, then you're in the situation where you, you don't militarily occupy the country, you're not really in a position to guide what comes next. If that's the thing, then we're going to go in there and make sure that the refugees aren't just flooding into our country. Now, I don't know exactly to what extent that's really going to happen, but I do think that you've seen, obviously, like, almost everybody in the region, with one notable exception, Rob, doesn't want to see this war. And of course, because whatever problems people have with the, the Iranian regime, which a lot of people in the region, certainly the Sunni states in the region, are not fans of theirs, but they understand that toppling this government and essentially it seems like, Rob, this is the thing that's essentially the plan that they've got. Topple the government and then we'll see. And even the topple the government, it's like, well, let's start bombing some government sites now. Again, I don't know exactly. I mean, I don't think they're going to be able to pull off some, some shit like they did in Venezuela. But maybe they could locate the ayatollah and kill him with a drone strike or they could, you know, kill a whole bunch of the mullahs and whatever. If they, if they do that and then they take out the government, then what? Well, I don't know if you saw this right, but Rubio, he already admitted that they don't have a replacement. Like, he essentially, they, he essentially acknowledged, we know that the son, the Shaw's Son doesn't have the juice. Like, we know if we send him in there, he'll just get killed. So they're already admitting we don't really have anyone to put in next. So if that does happen, then it's a power vacuum and it's a scramble for power. And there's like I had mentioned on, on the show before, I think it was in the last election, the, the far right candidate who's like a few clicks to the right of the current president, who's right wing enough to be accepted by the ayatollah, but the guy who's more right wing than him got like 20% of the vote. It's like, well, 20%. There's a nice insurgency for you, Rob. You know, it doesn't take any more than that. 20% of the country wants a more hardline, right wing theocratic government. So anyway, the countries in the region, they see this for what this is and they go, yeah, we're pretty concerned about the possibility.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (38:06)

Well, talk about the. One of the biggest national failures ever would be, I guess, if you took out the current Iranian regime, only to have Turkey take over the region. That would, that would not be a win.

Dave Smith (38:18)

Yeah, no, it certainly wouldn't. And I don't know that Turkey would actually, you know, I think this might be just a little bit of an empty threat. But, but regardless of that, just it being this thing turning into another catastrophe is, well, it's gonna, it's gonna destroy Donald Trump's presidency and his legacy, and I'll probably destroy anyone attached to the administration's ability to win national office. In the immediate aftermath of this administration. I will say, I mean, more long term, big picture. If this thing really does go that way, which again, there's, there's still all types of possibilities, Donald Trump could call the whole thing off tomorrow. He could bomb him a few times and then call the whole thing off. Like, there's, there's possibilities here. But if it does turn into a regime change, and they do, this regime does fall and it turns into some type of, you know, catastrophic chaos like that, to me, I mean, I think this is going to be remembered as Israel's war. Undeniably Israel's. You know what I mean? Getting the US Into a war and just getting us to commit another, you know, calamity just on their behalf and that they don't, I mean, they just don't really seem to care about reputational damage. It's so, Isn't it funny, Rob, too, I was thinking about the other day because there's this, like, massive freak out right now on. On Twitter. Like, all the Hawks are just trying to take down Tucker Carlson. They're all spazzing out about it. You know, it's like they all. They see the opportunity right now for the war in Iran, and so they're all trying their best to sell this war. And Tucker's the biggest voice who. Right wingers really love, trying to get people to not be sold by this war. So they're freaking out on him. But I just think it's funny that, like, they. So like I said on the episode, on. On the episode yesterday that they're all trying to spin it like, Huckabee destroyed Tucker, which you're like, dude, come on, man. Like, come on. Huckabee destroyed Tucker. Really? And. But then it's funny because, like, at the same time we talk about this has been a major theme on the show, right, Rob? We talk about. At all of their events. All they can ever talk about is how we're losing the narrative, and we're losing and losing and losing, and we got to win it back, and we're losing, but we have to win it back. And maybe we have to do that by, you know, whatever Barry Weiss said, we have to have the sexy, charismatic figures like Alan Dershowitz or Netanyahu says, we got to pay $7,000 a post, or we got to buy up CBS or we got to buy up Tik Tok, or we got to do all this because we're losing. We're losing. We got to buy more bots on Twitter. But then they also try to pretend they're winning, but we're winning the argument. Well, I don't actually think that's what's happening. All right, guys, let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show, which is Brunt Workwear. Brunt sent me a pair of their work boots. They are phenomenal. I love them. I know Lewis was talking about it recently. He's been wearing his all over, too. I just. We just got hit by this insane snowstorm. I have a big property here. I've been out snow blowing, you know, like, three times a day for the last couple days. We had, like, you know, a foot and a half of snow up here, and I'm doing it in my Brunt work boots. Now, typically speaking, as you guys know, if you wanted a good pair of durable work boots, as almost every guy who's ever needed one knows, they were going to kill your feet. Just be really uncomfortable. But they'd get the job done and they'd protect your feet from the cold or the, or a tough work site or whatever. But they were going to be brutally uncomfortable. And if you wanted comfortable shoes, your feet wouldn't be sore, but they were going to be soaking wet and freezing cold. Brunt has solved that problem. Brunt is the work boots that feel like a worn in pair of sneakers. From the first time you put them on your feet, they're just incredibly comfortable. They're, they look really awesome and they get the job done no matter how tough the environment is. Brunt was tired of the workwear brands out there cutting corners. Their attitude was you work too hard to be stuck in uncomfortable boots that don't hold up. So they built something better. Boots that are insanely comfortable and built for any job site. And for a limited time, our listeners can get $10 off at Brunt. When you use the promo code problem, just head over to BruntWorkwear.com and just use the promo code PROBLEM for $10 off. That's BruntWare.com promo code PROBLEM for ten dollars off. All right, let's get back into the show. Anyway, it's been interesting watching, watching all the people who come out who are trying to sell the war. I saw Sam Harris popped back out because that's, you know, it's like there's also weird, like, would people just reveal like, what role they play in this whole thing? Like Sam Harris, he's like, oh, I'm just like, I'm the atheist guy who has a meditation app and I'm really into Neuros psychology or whatever. But then anytime there's a war, I might have to just pop up to sell that war. That's just, that's just me. Totally normal guy here. Let's play that clip. Here's, here's Sam Harris thoughtfully breaking down in a way that no one else possibly can. Pure logic and rationality.

Sam Harris (43:19)

Rob, I honestly think Iran is much less likely to blow back on us the way Iraq and Afghanistan did. I just think a majority of the people are in a different spot with their desperation to be rid of theocracy. It's a much more sophisticated culture that has been oppressed for now more than a generation. You can't say that about Afghanistan. You can't even say that about Iraq. And Iraq was more sophisticated than Afghanistan. I do think it's a different situation. It's like if you're going to talk about the prospect of nation building is probably, ironically, this is probably a good opportunity that we can't possibly take, given how badly our experience was, how bad our experience was previously. But I think it's worth assuming that the majority of the Iranian people want something like a secular democracy or something. You know, something that would be recognizably secular and democratic. I honestly think Iran is.

Dave Smith (44:24)

So there you have it. Now, you might notice in there that Sam Harris does at least concede, which I guess we could take as a little bit of a benefit, that, you know, it's a real shame because we're probably not going to do nation building here. That's a shame because this is the time that we really should do it. So that's what Sam Harris feels. That's the lessons he's learned by getting every single foreign policy catastrophe wrong for 25 years, is that it's a real shame about those other wars I supported, because this one would really work. This. That's really the shame. That's really the shame of it here, that there's just not enough political will to fucking invade the country with 250,000 troops and occupy the thing for 20 years. It's a real shame because that would be cheaper this time or something like that, or. No, no, no, it wouldn't. You know, did you notice, by the way in there, Rob? Because I find this interesting how he really kind of. He. He gave something away that really kind of undercut his point. He was like, you know, this is just a much more sophisticated country. You know, you can't compare it to Afghanistan or Iraq. Iraq, of course, was much more sophisticated than Afghanistan. Okay, so it's interesting. Iraq was much more sophisticated than Afghanistan. Well, that's certainly true. A lot more people died in Iraq. Iraq was, I think, at least for the. A double check on the numbers. But I think it was more expensive, too. But certainly a lot more people died in Iraq. So, like, by the way, it was much bloodier in the more sophisticated country. Hmm. So does that necessarily mean it will be less bloody in a slightly more sophisticated than that country? You know what I'm saying? Like, it's. Like it doesn't even actually follow at all. No, the fact is that the. Iraq is certainly more sophisticated than Afghanistan, and that's actually part of the reason why there were so many. So many more civilian casualties in Iraq. Because Iraq has more cities or it has. I don't even know, it has more population density than Afghanistan has, which is actually the biggest, you know, issue when it comes to innocent people dying. Yeah, there was a whole study about that. I think the guy's name was Smith, too. Who did it? I can't remember his name, but it's called. If you Google it, you could find it. It's called the. The precision paradox. Where they were looking at. They looked at a few different areas, but I believe it was mostly in Syria where Vladimir Putin would come in and, like, carpet bomb an area, and then we would come in and, like, you know, use precision strikes. And then at the end, they'd count up the excess mortality and it didn't make any difference. It did. And the only real factor that mattered was population density. Because you start sitting here like we're gonna. No, don't worry. Because, you know, whatever. People have this idea, like a precision strike, a drone strike means, like, you take out one guy or something like that. That's not what you're talking about. You're talking about bombing a corridor of an apartment building and people end up dying. The building ends up collapsing. When you have population density like that, you just have much higher numbers. But then this other thing that, like, isn't it interesting? And this is the other thing I want to. Isn't it crazy, Rob? Because I don't know how much you know about, like, Sam Harris's career, but isn't it funny that the guy who's essentially always. His whole position has been to demonize Muslims and talk about how Muslims are, you know, the antithetical to liberal values and they can't be incorporated and that the people actually want theocracy and blah, blah, blah. Now all of a sudden, oh, no, no, no. Oh, no. The majority of Iranians would probably want a secular state maybe. And like, I don't know how. How exactly do you determine that? How exactly do you know? Just a. Trust me. Essentially, Sam Harris wants to go off his gut that he thinks these people want freedom. But again, this is what they said to. This is what they said about every theater. The people want freedom. The people hate Saddam Hussein. They want freedom. And it turn. Whole lot of them did hate Saddam Hussein, but some of them, for lots of different reasons, some of them hated Saddam Hussein because he wasn't enough of an Islamist. Some of them hated Saddam Hussein because he was a Sunni oppressing the Shiites and they wanted to be a Shiite oppressing the Sunnis. You know, like, just because people are against the regime doesn't mean that what it replaces it is going to be some Jeffersonian republic. But also, even if there is. Even if he's right and 90% or something. I'm sorry, I shouldn't say 90%. Even if he's right, that a majority of the people in Iran want a secular government, what is the size of that minority? Like what? You know, if you're talking about 20, 30, 40% of the country that wants an Islamist theocracy, maybe even a more right wing one than they have now, well, then, okay, you topple the government, there's probably going to be a struggle for power. And the question, you know, as we found out, at least when it comes to nation building, when it comes to the thing that Sam Harris is so upset that we can't get here, like a full military occupation and an effort to erect a new regime, as we found out in both Afghanistan and Iraq and other countries have found out in other military occupations, it's not really, this isn't an election. It's not about, do you have 51% of the population on your side? The question is, how violent is that minority willing to be? You know, because like, even if you have nine, let's say it's 90%. Let's say you had 90% of the Iranian people were on board with a military occupation from the United States of America. Well, Rob, what's 10% of 92 million? Almost 10 million. Okay, so that's almost 10 million people. Okay, of those 10 million people, these are the hardcore right wing, you know, Shiite, you know, Mullah supporting Ayatollah lovers. Well, of those, of those, say almost 10 million people, which, by the way, this is a real low ball number here, Rob, but that's still 10 million people. How many of them are willing to sit by while the Great Satan overthrows their beloved Ayatollah? Who. You know, Rob, if you understand, the Ayatollah is a pretty big figure in Shiite religion. And so, like, how many of them are willing to violently, you know, in the name of the Ayatollah, fight back against this regime? That's the question that matters. That's the question that was overlooked in Afghanistan, in Iraq and in all of these theaters. And of course, it's the one Sam Harris is still overlooking again here, because why not?

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (51:30)

Yeah, well, I think we have too much debt to be engaging in projects of nation building. And our track record of success in nation building is so poor, I don't even think it helps the people of the regions when we engage in the activity. So I'm not really sure what the pitch is for why. I mean, look at the Founding fathers. I'm not really sure that we're supposed to be engaged in nation building. I think our Flirting with nation building has essentially bankrupted our country and hasn't even resulted in successes for the people in the areas we've attempted it. And he doesn't even sound that confident in his own pitch. He's mumbling along here. He's being very shy and weak. Ish. To go, well, maybe here it would work because they're a little more. So maybe this is a. He doesn't even have a coherent pitch on what clearly is unpitchable. This hasn't worked. It's bankrupting our country. We don't have the resources to facilitate it, and we don't even know that it will work. So. Sounds like we shouldn't do it.

Dave Smith (52:26)

I just can't. It's unbelievable to me that, like, that anybody just can get away with even talking like this now. Like, it's almost. It's as if. I don't know, Rob. It's like. It's as if the, like. Let's just say you were, like, cliff jumping with, like, a few friends, and you're like, on, like, a big cliff, and you go, oh, someone jump up. But you can't really see, like, to the end of it. And then a guy jumps off and there's no water there, and he just dies. And. And then that happens, like, again three more times in a row. And then you go, hey, dude, let's jump off this cliff. And you go, now I think I hear some water. I got reason to believe that there's going to be water this time. You know, like, even if Sam Harris is going to say, I have. I believe this is actually a better candidate. It's like, okay, that's nice that you feel that way. Isn't the onus on you to really break that down? Like, give me some really good, detailed. Why you believe that this time and not just this? Like, well, you know, there were these catastrophes before, and now nobody wants to do this stuff anymore. It's a shame. But, like, how does anybody not have that attitude? How does anybody not have the attitude? Like, it's like if you were. I don't know, like, the brakes in your car had gone out three times on you, and you're like, I'm gonna go get back on the highway. And you'd be like, dude, no, no. Like, did you go and have someone, like a fucking certified mechanic check your goddamn brakes and tell you for sure they are working? You got to have some reason more than just. I don't know. They're more sophisticated. Okay? They're more sophisticated. I mean, like, I don't know. A country being sophisticated doesn't really mean anything in this regard. And there's been some of the, you know, the Nazis were. Maybe the most sophisticated country in the world was Germany at the time. So, like, I, it's just all silliness. Sorry, go ahead.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (54:28)

There's one guy who's honestly gonna pitch the reason for the war. All right, let's play.

Dave Smith (54:34)

When, when all else fails and you, you don't. When the arguments are sounding incoherent, you gotta go to the smartest of them all.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (54:42)

And Mr. President, if there's one regime we have to take out,

Dave Smith (54:47)

here's. Let's go to Mark Levin. That's the next clip.

Sponsor/Ad Voice (54:52)

Oh,

Mark Levin (54:54)

the problem isn't negotiations. The problem isn't they won't agree to this or that or we can get the best deal in, in world history. The problem is them. The west needs to understand what we're dealing with for 47 years. I don't know what it's going to take, but we need to comprehend what we're dealing with. That regime needs to be eliminated to save our children and grandchildren from having to deal with.

Sponsor/Ad Voice (55:22)

Oh,

Dave Smith (55:26)

okay. So the two things that are, or I would say the one thing that is noteworthy about this is that as you may have noticed there on the screen, Donald Trump shared this. He shared this clip. So that's where the President's at. You know, it's funny, Rob, because it seems like all of the, all of the war hawks, all of the Israel firsters are, you know, as I said, they're very upset. Every one of their conferences, they're talking about how they're getting destroyed. Why is it. And then the argument that they're making is that Tucker and Candace and Megyn Kelly and to a lesser extent, me, we're ruining everything. We're ruining the midterms. We're ruining Trump's presidency. It's because we're being so divisive that blah, blah, blah, whatever. We're going to lose the midterms and the left's going to take back power. It's a very common argument. I'm sure all of you guys have heard it. We've addressed it several times on the show. And you're like, or maybe it's just that we've been having this big, huge national argument over the last two years. You know, there's been a goddamn huge debates in this country on, well, I mean, obviously there was on Covid and on Ukraine, but really, over the last two years, the dominant political debate in this country has been over Israel, over US Support for Israel, over Israeli influence on the US Government, over Israel's destruction of Gaza, and over Israel's demands that we topple the government in Iran. We've had this debate across the country. Obviously there's, you know, figures on who you could think of on both sides of it. The, the Ben Shapiro and the Mark Levins and the Lindsay Grahams on one side and broadly speaking, Tucker Carlson and Candace and some people like that myself on, on the more non interventionist side. And, and this isn't just a debate on the right wing either. It's a debate on the left wing and, you know, all over the place. Although it's pretty unanimous on the left that they are critical of Israel. But the thing is that the Israel critic side have just dominated this debate at every turn. And public opinion has been turned way in our favor on this issue. And Donald Trump insists constantly on siding with the losers of the issue. Like he insists constantly on going, hey, you guys, you know how you guys all hate Lindsey Graham? I'm with him. You know how Mark Levin, his youngest audience member is 90. He's just literally the clown who gets ratioed on Twitter every time he opens his mouth? Well, I'm with him. See, this is why you're losing. You're the ones taking the unpopular position here. So don't go blaming us for pointing out that the correct position is the one we should take. All right, guys, let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show, which is Fume. Fume is a longtime sponsor of the show and I've always loved the product. 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You get a free gift when you buy the Journey Pack. When you go to try fume.com that's T R Y F U M.com promo code problem to claim your free gift today. All right, let's get back into the show now. ROB I also, I don't know if you had any other comments here, but there's something that I thought was very interesting here. MARK LEVIN actually, I just want people to understand how, how weird even people conceptualize of these things and how the disconnect between reality, forget even what what your view is on this issue. I mean, just like the reality of it, Mark Levin actually says at the end of this, we have to take out this regime now so that our children and grandchildren don't have to. ROB mark Levin is 70. It's his children and grandchildren who have to do it right now. What do you mean if we don't do this, our children and grandchildren are going to do this. We Are you dropping bunker busters? MARK LEVIN no, it's going to be your children and grandchildren, let me correct myself, your children and grandchildren's generation, probably not yours, that are going to have to do this right now. But isn't that weird, Rob, that that's just still in his mind, that's how he thinks of it, that like if Donald Trump does it, then we did it, then our generation did it. But you didn't. Your generation aren't the ones who are staffed on the ships and the bases in the region. Your generation aren't the ones who are going to be flying the fighter jets. Your generation is not going to be the one who's risking themselves right now. It's your kids and grandkids. And you don't seem to have a problem with your kids and grandkids generation fighting wars because you've been advocating it your entire life, older adult life, I mean, your younger adult life, too, but you've been advocating it. You're in your 50s and your 60s and in your 70s. Anyway, any thoughts on, on the Great One?

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (61:47)

Rob he's the one guy saying we need regime change. We cannot allow them to stay. And listen, you're my friend and I'm a ball Jew. So whatever it takes to not turn into that, I don't, I don't know what diet I have to be on.

Dave Smith (62:01)

I'll be honest. I'll keep you honest. I'll Be the first one. If you start showing signs of early onset, Mark, I'll be the first one. I'll be the first one to be like, hey, Rob, dude, you got to go. You got to go chill out a little bit. Well, no, I mean, so there it is. I mean, the, the. Look, the hawks are pushing for regime change here. That's obviously what they want, and the American people clearly don't want it. Donald Trump seems to be going along with that, so we'll see how much time this gets at his State of the Union tonight. I'd imagine they've got to be looking at this, like, if he's decided he's doing this, which all indications are it's still very unpopular. He's got to try to sell that tonight. But good luck. I don't know how you're going to. I'm sure there'll be some other stuff in the speech there. I'm sure a big part of the speech will be bragging about how great the economy is. Crime and fentanyl is down. The economy is really great. The tariffs were working. Yeah, we'll be in for a lot of that. I'm going to have to. It does, at this point feels like a punishment to even have to watch.

Robbie the Fire Bernstein (63:09)

I don't want to sit down and watch it, but I will likely live stream either on my website or maybe publicly with some other podcasters. And my guess is I'll last about 40 minutes and be like, you know what? I will wait for the clips tomorrow.

Dave Smith (63:22)

Yeah, I hear you. I understand it. All right, well, we're gonna wrap on there. We'll. I'll give a response to the State of the Union tomorrow. All right, catch you guys then. Peace.

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