Podcast Summary: Part Of The Problem — "Trump to Sell War at the SOTU"

Host: Dave Smith (with Robbie “the Fire” Bernstein)
Date: February 25, 2026
Main Theme:
Dave Smith and co-host Robbie Bernstein break down the political climate leading into President Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address. The central focus is on the dramatic shift in Trump’s presidency from peace rhetoric and “ending endless wars” to what Dave describes as preparing to “sell” a new and deeply unpopular war with Iran to the American public. The episode explores administration contradictions, the lack of public appetite for war, foreign policy blunders, the politics of regime change, and media attempts to shift opinion.

Opening and Episode Context

• Dave and Robbie briefly discuss upcoming comedy events (skip for summary purpose).
• Sets the stage: Trump's State of the Union address is imminent, and Dave frames the episode as a preview. He notes he’ll do a detailed response after the speech, wanting time to “sleep on it and think about it” ([01:50]).

1. Contrasts Between Trump’s Promises and Current Posture

[02:32]–[05:03]

• Dave recalls Trump’s promises from last year’s SOTU: ending the Ukraine war, government efficiency overseen by Elon Musk, border control, and an “end to regime change wars.”
• Quote:

  “Gone are the days of regime change wars. A new era of transparency is amongst, you know…And wow, a year later, essentially…Donald Trump is going up there to sell the neocons’ final war...”
  — Dave [03:54]

• Remark on Trump’s shift in approval ratings: from “record highs” and “capturing the energy” to “totally in shambles.”

2. Predicting the State of the Union & War Rhetoric

[05:03]–[11:29]

• Robbie cynically anticipates Trump boasting about tariffs, crime-fighting, and global stability “amidst a failure of a year.”
• Dave predicts Trump will:
  • Spin the brief “12 Day War” as a success,
  • Claim victory in Venezuela,
  • Criticize the Supreme Court for striking down his policies,
  • Begin selling war with Iran, despite 75–80% public opposition.
• Quote:

  “If you have made the decision that you’re going to go to war…your biggest speech…you’ve got a war that you’re about to launch that’s enormously unpopular. It seems like this is your opportunity to try your best to really sell the American people on why we gotta go start dropping bombs on Tehran.”
  — Dave [08:08]

3. Administration Figures and Media Gaffes

[11:56]–[14:31]

• Discussion on the reputational fall of Trump-world figures: Cash Patel, Dan Bongino, Tulsi Gabbard (“she’ll never really reputationally recover from that [12 Day War]”), and Steve Witkoff.
• Robbie highlights the international outrage caused by Mike Huckabee’s recent comments, exacerbating US diplomatic challenges:

  “Your ambassador to Israel goes and pisses them all off by telling them that God promised their land to Benjamin Netanyahu.”

• Focus shifts to Witkoff’s recent interview, setting up a key clip about Iran’s nuclear readiness.

4. The Iran-Nuclear Narrative: Lies, Contradictions, and Risks

[14:33]–[28:15]

• Witkoff claims Iran is “a week away” from nuclear weapons capability ([14:33]).
• Robbie and Dave eviscerate the claim:
  • Point out contradictions: Trump's administration previously claimed to have “obliterated” Iran’s program.
  • Cite evidence that Iran has not made a political decision to build the bomb.
  • Argue that US/Israel military action incentivizes Iran toward weaponization, not away from it.
• Quote:

  “Witkoff here is just lying. It’s just straight up lying. There’s no…evidence at all…Even Netanyahu…admitted as much recently that…it would be like a few years before they actually…develop a nuclear weapon.”
  — Dave [15:29]

• The Non-Proliferation Treaty, JCPOA, and the consequences of the US pulling out.
• Loss of on-the-ground inspections post-12 Day War: “We don’t know where [Iran] moved that enriched uranium.”

Key Analogy

• Dave: “All the [US] wars...one thing all the opponents have in common is that they don’t have nuclear weapons. We just don’t really [go to war] with nuclear-armed countries...”

5. US Negotiation Demands Are Designed to Fail

[28:02]–[33:26]

• Dave and Robbie break down the so-called “poison pill” of US demands:
  • Zero uranium enrichment (an extreme, previously rejected red line)
  • Elimination of all long-range missiles
  • Ending support for all regional proxies
• Iran's refusal to "capitulate," as Witkoff puts it, is entirely rational in the face of threats to regime survival.
• Quote:

  “The deal is you just have to agree to remove your ability to attack us back. Well, everybody knows what Bibi Netanyahu would do then…”
  — Dave [30:27]

6. The Regime Change Problem: No End Game, No Replacement, Regional Chaos

[33:26]–[38:06]

• Trump’s assumed “bluster” approach: move in military hardware and expect Iran to fold; this approach “validates all of our criticisms of Donald Trump.”
• Turkey’s threats: worried about refugee flows if Iran collapses.
• Regional consensus (except Israel): nobody wants war or sudden regime collapse, fearing a vacuum, insurgency, or sectarian chaos.
• Quote:

  “If you take out the current Iranian regime, only to have Turkey take over the region…That would not be a win.”
  — Robbie [38:06]

• The US and Israel don’t have a viable replacement for Iran’s regime; “the Shah’s son doesn’t have the juice.”

7. The Media’s War Drum: Sam Harris & Mark Levin

Sam Harris’s Nation-Building Pitch

[43:19]–[52:26]

• Sam Harris (clip at [43:19]) suggests Iran is “different,” that the “majority want secular democracy,” making it a better candidate for nation-building than Afghanistan or Iraq.
• Dave and Robbie mock and refute Harris:
  • Sophistication does not equate to ease of occupation or reconstruction.
  • The main determinant of post-invasion chaos isn’t whether a majority wants democracy, but how many are willing to violently resist.
  • The cost, debt, and failure record of US nation-building abroad.
• Quote:

  “He doesn’t even have a coherent pitch on what clearly is unpitchable. This hasn’t worked. It’s bankrupting our country.”
  — Robbie [51:30]

Mark Levin’s Call for Regime Change

[54:52]–[56:01]

• Mark Levin (clip at [54:54]) says, “the regime needs to be eliminated to save our children and grandchildren from having to deal with [it].”
• Dave notes that Trump shared Levin’s clip, signifying alignment with the hardline War-Hawk narrative.
• Dave deconstructs Levin’s generational logic:

  “Mark Levin is 70. It’s his children and grandchildren who have to do it right now...Isn’t that weird, Rob, that that’s just still in his mind...if Donald Trump does it, then we did it, then our generation did it. But you didn’t. Your generation aren’t the ones who are staffed on the ships and bases in the region...it’s your kids and grandkids.”
  — Dave [55:26]

8. Public Opinion, Unpopular Wars, and Trump’s Political Fate

[56:01]–[63:22]

• Dave underscores that public opinion is firmly against attacking Iran; the debate has played out “in every corner of the country and online,” with “Israel critics” dominating the narrative.
• Trump continues to align with the out-of-touch, deeply unpopular neocon/Israel-First coalition.
• Dave: “You’re the ones taking the unpopular position here. So don’t go blaming us…”

Wrap-Up and Final Predictions

• Hawks want regime change; the American people don’t.
• Dave expects Trump’s SOTU to “brag about how great the economy is,” talk tariffs, crime, and “sell the war.”
• Hosts lament the prospect of enduring two hours of Trump’s self-congratulation and war-mongering.
• Both express fatigue and skepticism, with hints about live-streaming or waiting for highlights ([63:09]).

Memorable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• “Gone are the days of regime change wars…A new era of transparency is amongst…a year later, Donald Trump is going up there to sell the neocons’ final war…” — Dave [03:54]
• “If you have made the decision that you’re going to go to war…you’ve got a war that you’re about to launch that’s enormously unpopular. It seems like this is your opportunity to try your best to really sell the American people on why we gotta go start dropping bombs on Tehran.” — Dave [08:08]
• “Witkoff here is just lying. It’s just straight up lying.” — Dave [15:29]
• “All the wars…one thing all the opponents have in common is that they don’t have nuclear weapons.” — Dave [25:02]
• “I think administration trying to lie to us again…contradicts what they were saying earlier.” — Robbie [23:45]
• “A regime wants to remain in power…They’re interested in their own self-survival and if anything, you’re pushing them towards needing a nuclear warhead.” — Robbie [33:11]
• “You’re the ones taking the unpopular position here. So don’t go blaming us…” — Dave [55:26]
• “He doesn’t even have a coherent pitch on what clearly is unpitchable. This hasn’t worked. It’s bankrupting our country.” — Robbie [51:30]

Segment Timestamps

• [01:50] – Transition from opening banter into SOTU and public mood
• [03:54] – Dave’s overview of Trump’s 2025 SOTU and contrast with now
• [05:03] – Robbie’s satirical predictions for the SOTU/brag reel
• [08:08] – Dave’s analysis of how Trump will try to “sell” the Iran war
• [14:33] – Witkoff clip and the Iran nuke narrative
• [25:02] – Nuclear deterrence and why Iran wants one
• [28:02] – US’s “poison pill” negotiation on Iran
• [33:11] – Analysis of Trump’s mindset and administration hawks
• [38:06] – Turkey’s regional posture and “who replaces the regime?”
• [43:19] – Sam Harris’s pitch for Iranian regime change, Dave’s takedown
• [54:52] – Mark Levin’s regime change call, Trump’s endorsement
• [56:01] – Public opinion, debates, and Trump’s political miscalculation
• [63:09] – Hosts’ closing thoughts and fatigue

Overall Takeaway

Dave Smith delivers a scathing, libertarian critique of the impending push for war with Iran, pointing out contradictions in the Trump administration’s messaging, failures in foreign policy logic, catastrophic historical precedents for intervention, and the overwhelming unpopularity of another Middle Eastern war among Americans. The episode stands out for its detailed recounting of behind-the-scenes failures, media complicity, “poison pill” diplomacy, and the hosts' refusal to accept facile pro-war talking points from both the administration and mainstream pundits.