This Episode

Chris Lopez and Jim Pfeifer sit down with Scott Trench for a frank 2025 recap and a practical 2026 game plan. Scott reviews what he got right (rates staying sticky, supply-driven rent trends) and where the surprises showed up (gold strength, stock market resilience), then opens his playbook: selling a chunk of stocks, buying paid-off 2–4 unit Denver rentals, and allocating a small slice of retirement capital to private credit via a solo 401(k). Looking ahead, Scott focuses on multifamily supply tapering, demand uncertainty, and the 10-year vs. Fed funds dynamic. He also lays out a contrarian Class A office thesis (all equity, patient lease-up, operator quality over leverage) and shares how LPs might think about accessing similar opportunities.

Key Takeaways

Interest rates: policy cuts may not translate to lower mortgages if the 10-year stays elevated
Supply and rents: 2026 likely absorbs the 2024–2025 wave, with rent strength returning market by market
Portfolio moves: swapped high-multiple equities for paid-off small multifamily; reserved retirement dollars for simple-yield private credit
Risk posture: early-career aggression → mid-career capital protection; leverage optionality comes later
Office angle: best-in-market, newer assets with patient, all-equity business plans may offer asymmetric upside
LP lens: prioritize operator track records in one geography, modest leverage, and realistic lease-up/tenant improvement budgets

Disclaimer

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