Are the Texans Positioned to be the BEST in the AFC?

Summary

Payne & Pendergast
Episode: Are the Texans Positioned to be the BEST in the AFC?
Date: July 7, 2026
Hosts: Seth Payne & (Guest Host) Luke Morrow
Featured Analyst: Aaron Schatz (FTN Fantasy, creator of DVOA)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the Houston Texans’ status as a potential powerhouse in the AFC for the upcoming NFL season. The hosts, joined by football analytics legend Aaron Schatz, discuss whether Houston’s strong defense and improvements on offense position them as frontrunners—if not favorites—in a conference full of question marks. They examine C.J. Stroud’s trajectory, red zone woes, the health and impact of Tank Dell, and how Houston’s roster stacks up critically. The conversation is passionate, data-driven, and colored by Seth and Luke’s honest, sometimes humorous, Houston-centric perspective.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Positioning: Are the Texans the (Likely) Best Team in the AFC?

• Aaron Schatz’s Take [02:45]:

  • Emphasizes too much weight is given to playoff results over the regular season.
  • “In the regular season, CJ Stroud was an average quarterback on a team that had no running game. Now... David Montgomery to be the lead running back, Tank Dell returning, improved O-line—Houston is very likely to be a slightly above average offense... when you put that with the defense... that is the best team in the AFC.”
  • Schatz isn’t overflowing with praise; his view is measured, focusing on improvements and the defense’s floor-raising qualities.

• Host Analysis [03:25, Payne]:

  • Seth points out that the real respect here is for the defense, and raises caution about assuming last year’s “path to the Super Bowl with an average QB” is now the norm.
  • “I feel like you should be greedier than that and want more than [just an above average offense].”

• Luke on AFC Landscape [04:47]:

  • The current AFC field has top contenders with question marks: “...new coaches, first time coaches or quarterback injuries or coordinator changes... each of the top contenders in the AFC specifically does have a big question or concern to try to figure out.”
  • Believes the AFC is wide open but Houston’s defensive edge makes their average offense a greater asset than it first appears.

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2. The Texans’ Offense: Measuring Last Year, Projecting Forward

• Scoring vs. Consistency [06:04, Payne]:

  • The Texans ranked 13th in scoring, but Seth notes this was skewed by a few blowouts and short fields from turnovers.
  • “They might have been the 13th scoring offense but it was still average at best offense and probably a little bit below average.”

• Red Zone Problems [06:40, Payne]:

  • Worst-in-league red zone offense for much of the year—improvements here could bring significant gains without a total overhaul: “If you just convert a few of those opportunities... with a running back and offensive line capable of those things... more complete and well-rounded team without making extreme changes.”

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3. C.J. Stroud: Above Average, or Just Average? Playoff Weight

• Aaron Schatz’s Assessment [07:29]:

  • “I think when you look at Stroud’s performance overall, he is an above average quarterback and that if you can give him an average offensive line... that can be an above average offense. Not a really good offense, but at least above average.”
  • Considers growth potential, but remains cautious about calling the offense top-tier.

• Playoff Performance Reverberations [08:44, 09:06]:

  • The hosts weigh how much a couple of poor playoff games can overturn an entire season’s worth of positive impressions.
  • Seth: “I think two bad playoff performances undid 12 regular season performances by CJ this year... The playoffs... undid all of the things... maturity in knowing exactly how to handle game situations... it was such a huge shock that he was the exact opposite guy in the playoffs.”
  • Not until Stroud erases the memory of those mistakes does Seth feel comfortable projecting a leap.

• Memorable Quote [11:20, Payne]:

  • “If you have an awesome life, but then the last 10 years... are just absolute misery... it kind of changes... it’s hard to remember those first 70 years...”
  • Uses life-analogy to underscore the sting of ending on a sour note.

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4. The “Tank Dell Will Fix It All” Fallacy

• National Pundit Reliance [16:05–17:54]:
  • Both hosts are wary of hinging offensive optimism solely on Tank Dell’s return.
  • Seth: “It would be awesome if we knew that Tank Dell was going to come back and be... this physically the same guy that he was before his catastrophic knee injury, but we just don't know that.”
  • Critiques ESPN’s mislabeling of Dell as a slot receiver and the narrative that his return will solve the offense: “That is a huge found money scenario for me. I'm not banking on it...”

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5. Defense: The Real Powerhouse

• Aaron Schatz on Predictability of Defense [17:59]:

  • “You can feel about as good that the Houston Texans defense is going to be good as you can about any defense in the league in any year... It's not built on turnovers. It's not built on third downs. It's just built on stopping the other team.”
  • Praises Houston for retaining all key pieces and making solid marginal additions.

• Seth’s Nuance [18:52]:

  • Running it back on defense is justified when you’re already elite: “It is rare that you’re a top two defense in the league and you don’t lose any of your impact playmakers...”
  • Acknowledges risk (e.g., injuries), but feels the unit is well-constructed for repeat performance.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Aaron Schatz [02:45]:
  “Houston is very likely to be a slightly above average offense... when you put that with the defense... that is the best team in the AFC.”

• Seth Payne [09:06]:
  “The playoffs... undid all of the things that you wanted to complement CJ for last year... it was such a huge shock that he was the exact opposite guy in the playoffs.”

• Aaron Schatz [17:59]: “You can feel about as good that the Houston Texans defense is going to be good as you can about any defense in the league in any year... it’s just built on stopping the other team.”

• Seth Payne [16:28]: “That is a huge found money scenario for me. I'm not banking on it unless it comes to fruition.”

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Important Segment Timestamps

• 02:45 — Aaron Schatz lays out the “Texans best in the AFC” argument.
• 06:04 — Texans’ offensive scoring relative to reality; red zone woes analyzed.
• 07:29 — Schatz contextualizes Stroud as “above average QB.”
• 09:06 — Seth on the psychological impact of CJ’s playoff miscues.
• 16:05–17:54 — The Tank Dell optimism debate.
• 17:59 — Schatz praises Texans’ defense as reliable and elite.

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Tone & Language

• Analytical yet relatable, with a conversational Houston sports fan flavor.
• Hosts balance optimism with realism—pointing out both legitimate reasons for hope and the dangers of overconfidence.
• Humor and honesty throughout, especially in analogies (e.g., Seth’s “last 10 years of your life” comment).

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Summary Takeaway

This episode delivers a grounded, comprehensive look at the Texans’ status as AFC contenders. The hosts and guest analyst Aaron Schatz agree Houston’s defense provides a championship foundation, while offensive improvements—if not sudden leaps—could make the Texans a legitimate favorite in a “wide open” conference. Yet, the team must overcome playoff scars, red zone issues, and avoid relying on injury-prone stars to realize their potential as the AFC’s best.

Transcript

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[Luke Morrow]

store near you Are the Texans the best team in the afc? I tried to make the case yesterday and then we had this audio that somebody might agree. We'll get to that here on Pain and Pender Gas. We got a few pieces of audio to try to get to here, including from Aaron Shots of Football Outsiders. I'm Luke Morrow, in for Sean alongside Seth Payne. You can always text the show 713-572-4610 or get to us also on the Twitch and YouTube chats as well if

[Seth Payne]

you ever told you to as I told you not to worry about giving guys credit as much as possible. Aaron shots with FTN Fantasy now.

[Luke Morrow]

Oh, is that what he's doing?

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, yeah. He used to be Football Outsiders. Now he's with FTN Fantasy.

[Luke Morrow]

Okay.

[Seth Payne]

Which is kind of a big deal because he invented dvoa.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

Which was a Football Outsiders thing. But he moved on and now he's with. He still does dvoa, but it's a behind a paywall at FTN Fan.

[Luke Morrow]

Oh, I don't like that. To be honest with you. I actually thought he started Football Outsiders as well I know he had came.

[Seth Payne]

I think he did. I think he did okay.

[Luke Morrow]

Did he?

[Aaron Schatz]

Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. I might be wrong on that, but I think that was his. His baby.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. I've talked to him before, but obviously I don't know him well enough to know these things. Anyways, we seem to be in line though with the idea of the Texans. Maybe they're the best team in the afc. Here was Aaron Schatz talking about those Texans.

[Aaron Schatz]

Yeah. I think first of all that we all think too much about those playoff games and not about the regular season. In the regular season, C.J. stroud was an average quarterback on a team that had no running game. Now they should have improved the offensive line. They now have David Montgomery to be the lead running back. They should be getting Tank Dell back for their passing game. And I think that all of that combines to mean that Houston is very likely to be a slightly above average offense. Like 13th, 14th when you put that with the defense that they put on the field, that is the best team in the afc.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. So I mean that's a like, that's not like huge just gushing praise or anything. I think it's more respect for the defense if anything else at all. But I do think that there is an element of wherever the Texans offense ranks or what they need to do. Are we, are we reading too much into last year's AFC where a lot of the better quarterbacks were out of it by the final Four and that you just like it. It was the perfect year with Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes out of the playoffs that you might be able to just. It's enough to get to the super bowl with an average or a slightly above average quarterback and a really, really good defense. Pages made to the super bowl with a guy that was. I mean I don't. Drake May in the regular season was an incredible quarterback. In the, in the, in the postseason he was just a kind of a well, whatever quarterback except for a few key critical awesome plays that he made at times. So I, I think that I agree with him that I think the Texans are a lot closer to being an above average offense than it feels. But I don't know if that in any given year that's enough that. Oh because Sam Darnold and let's remember the Seahawks had a really good offense last year too. That it's not just as simple as. Okay in this day and age all you have to have is a. An above average offense. I feel like you should be greedier than that and want more than that

[Luke Morrow]

yeah, I do agree with you on that idea of falling into the trap of last year is the new norm in the NFL and I don't know if that's the case. And so maybe I'm the one that's relying on Hopium as I made the case yesterday that with that said though, I do think there are some big questions or concerns for the top contenders in the AFC and we went through them yesterday. But whether it's new coaches, first time coaches or quarterback injuries or coordinator changes, I know that stuff happens every year in the NFL. But I think each of the top contender in the AFC specifically does have a big question or concern to try to figure out. So I do agree with your overall point. But I think still it remains to be seen or for me personally until proven otherwise, maybe I feel like the AFC is still up for grabs or you know, open for the taking. But I do love what Aaron said. I like the idea of like the bar is so low that he's like, well if this happens, this happens. They might have an average offense. And it's like all right, you know, we could be average. But it also to your point, like he said that's how good the defense is, that if the Texans are just average, he said 13th or 14th offense in the league that could be good enough to be the best team in the afc. That that bar is low because of how good the defense is. And if they were just that last year they should have been in the super bowl if they only had an average offense in the playoffs.

[Seth Payne]

They were the 13 scoring offense in the league last year, at least 13 scoring team. You add in a couple of the defensive touchdowns, whatever. But I think the, I mean so much of that was heavily weighted by a couple of huge games against bad teams. And then also you know, against the Ravens and against the 49ers defense in the state of affairs that it was in, etc. But then also, you know, the benefit of getting short fields at times from the defense, the turnover ratio, all of that, it's they might have been the 13th scoring offense but it was still average at best offense and probably a little bit below average. I think the big thing for me though is that if you could just simply if you weren't the worst red zone offense in the league, what does that number end up looking like? And I don't think to their credit, I think they lifted themselves up to like 29th in red zone offense. But it was just, it was one of the worst red zone offenses in the league. If you just convert a few of those opportunities to. And if you can be able to do that without CJ playing any different, but by having a running back in an offensive line that's capable of doing those things, then ACJ looks like the same performance gets you better stats out of cj But B, you're just, you're a more complete and well rounded team without making extreme changes necessarily.

[Luke Morrow]

Well, speaking of cj, here's more Aaron Shots of talking about how Stroud has. Has been an above average quarterback.

[Aaron Schatz]

There's guys who have never gotten over the hump until the year that they finally get over the hump. I think when you look at Stroud's performance overall, he is a above average quarterback and that if you can give him an average offensive line and we know Nico Collins is great and there's good receivers there and if Tank Dell comes back and everything, that can be an above average offense. Not a really good offense, but at least above average.

[Seth Payne]

Now I'm offended by him saying they can't be a really good offense, but no, he was laying out the parameters of. Okay, if you just do all of those things and it's everything that we've been talking about this entire time. I think the biggest thing that, I think the disconnect for a lot of people right now is that it's, it's impossible to wash those playoffs out of your brain.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

And I think there's people that when they hear somebody say that Aaron shot or there's somebody that C.J. stroud over the course of three years has been an above average quarterback, they just don't believe it. And it's, it's like. And I get that, I understand it. But with the sum total of it all, if you look at it and you include that rookie year and especially the second half of his rookie year, there's, there's far worse situations to be in, but that's not a guarantee that it's going to be that much better in the future.

[Luke Morrow]

How much I'm trying to, I'm trying to come up with a way to phrase this. How much value do you put into a playoff game? Like how many regular season games would you say a playoff game is worth? So like two bad playoff games, does that undo just let's say eight regular season performances? Like, can you put a value on how impactful or important playoff games are?

[Seth Payne]

I think two bad playoff performances undid 12 regular season performances by CJ this year. Yeah. Or 13. 13 and 13 and a quarter. Or however many games he actually played. I think that the. You know what it did undo, though, I think the playoffs especially, it undid all of the things that you wanted to complement CJ for last year. Despite it being a lackluster season. Offensively, I was genuinely impressed by maturity in knowing exactly how to handle game situations. Like to be. When a quarterback, no matter who you are, like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, anybody, they have to be game managers of a sort of. It doesn't mean they're game manager quarterbacks, but you got to manage the game. You got to know when you can and can't take risks. You got to know what to do when you've got a lead in the second half, all of those things. And you got to know when to, when to throw the ball away, when to take the easy, easy receptions on first down. I thought CJ did a great job of growing and developing in that regard as the season went along. And that's why it was such a huge shock that he was the exact opposite guy in the playoffs that instead of, instead of managing bad situations, he made bad situations even worse. You know, that the pick six, I don't care. That tight end fell down on the route on the pick six in the Super Bowl. Eat the ball, take the sack. You know, there's just certain things that he was going above and beyond in making a bad situation even worse. That was, that's it. Undid for me a lot of that maturity I wanted to credit him with during the regular season because when the, when the, when the screws were really turned, all just got flushed out the toilet. And I don't think until, until you see him come back and operate the way he was operating mentally, you know, during the regular season last year. I need to see him operate that way for a few games before I can say that that's the, that the playoffs didn't mean anything.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, that's a good point. You know, they say a bad first impression, that it takes then seven good impressions to remove that bad impression. So I guess it's similar. And when. And those are really bad impressions in the past.

[Seth Payne]

Impressions matter too, though. Yeah, true. Yeah, these. It's kind of if you have like an. If you have an awesome life, but then the last 10 years of your life are just absolute misery. Like you go bankrupt, you've got some kind of illness that's just lingering on and everything, it kind of changes. Like if your last. If you live 80 years, but the last 10 years are really, really miserable, it's harder to say. Like, it's hard to remember those first 70 years, as awesome as they were?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, it's true.

[Seth Payne]

So I'm told. I don't know. I'm going out in a blaze of glory before that ever happens. Yeah. I'm Susie Welch, the host of Becoming

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[Luke Morrow]

I that's why I hate seeing these videos that will go viral online of like the 80 year old working at Walmart and people are asking me like how what happened? How come you're working here? And it's usually unfortunately like health care stuff that put the, put them in debt or they went through their savings because the wife got sick or something and yeah, it's, it's people do that.

[Seth Payne]

People go and interview people that are working at Walmart and like shame them for it.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, but it's like a senior.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, you try to okay that bothers me because I feel like whoever makes those videos is like trying to make a heartfelt video of it when in reality they're just shaming some old guy that I don't know had some bad financial luck or something.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, it's true. But. But I will say the positive that usually comes from those is that then people will start to go fund me and like donate money to try to help that person.

[Seth Payne]

So they're just going to blow it again. Give that money to a 40 year old or something or a 20 something. I don't know.

[Luke Morrow]

That's also fair. I have thought about that too.

[Seth Payne]

I'm taking up base jumping when I turn 70.

[Aaron Schatz]

That's how.

[Seth Payne]

That's how I. That's how I'm going to handle the last 10 years.

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[Luke Morrow]

Really going out. Blaze. By the way, what did Aaron. How did he start that clip? Guys don't get over the hump until they get over the hump. Is that what he said?

[Seth Payne]

That's what he said. They don't get over the hump until they get over the hump. We talked about Eli Manning earlier. Eli Manning. I'm not so sure Eli Manning ever actually got over the hump in the regular season. But he was a bad quarterback his first four years, including the year he won a Super bowl until right up until the playoffs. He wasn't a good quarterback, man. But things just kind of all of a sudden clicked for him.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, but what does that.

[Seth Payne]

Sam Darnold didn't get over the hump until he got to Minnesota later in his career. Geno Smith. It took forever for him to get over the hump. I feel like Baker Mayfield gets thrown into that group sometimes. And it's not. I don't think it's fair to Baker Mayfield because he was a guy. People were having the debate about whether they should pay him after his third year. And then he. And then he had that really bad shoulder separation that kind of just threw everything derailed his entire career. So I don't. I don't put him in that same boat as Late Bloomer. I think he just had a little bit of a bumpy road.

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Right.

[Luke Morrow]

But. But yeah, I just. I don't understand the phrasing in the sense of. Yeah, of course. Like, of course no one gets over the hill until they get over the hill. It's like I don't get home until I get home. Like, yeah, obviously. You know what I mean? Like you can't. It seems just like the most obvious statement.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, but. But you Know what he's saying? Apply your Yogi Bear logic to it. Like, yeah, don't think too hard about it. It's a Yogi Berra ism where. Oh yeah, I know exactly what he's talking about.

[Luke Morrow]

That's right. Also, what stood out to that from that clip, and this is what everyone does. Whenever people talk about the Texans offense and how it might improve this year, everyone always references Tank Dell and his return. Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

Yes. Yeah, I'm glad you brought that up.

[Luke Morrow]

Do you feel like I was going to ask, do you feel like we're relying too much or the national pundits are relying too much on this idea of like Tank Dell and what he's going to bring to the offense?

[Seth Payne]

I do. I do. Because even on the ESPN did their article, they ranked all the, they ranked all the rosters in the NFL and they ranked the Texans as the ninth best overall roster. And I think there was a blurb in there about how they've got Tank Dell coming back. Which, yeah, it would be awesome if we knew the Tank Dell was going to come back and be as physically this physically the same guy that he was before his catastrophic knee injury, but we just don't know that. Like, we know he's going to be there in training camp in some capacity. But I'm kind of, that's a, that is a huge found money scenario for me. I'm not banking on it unless it comes to fruition. And wow, okay, now this is just, this is one more guy that can really threaten the defense. Then you add him to the Maloo. But I saw it was in that ESPN write up where they said that, you know, watch Jalen Noel, but if Tank Dell comes back, then that might affect Jalen Knowles usage in the slot. And that annoyed me because Tank Dell's not a slot receiver. But people look at him and because he's small, they think, oh, okay, he must be the slot receiver. And then that just devalues the entire positive blurb that you've just written about the Texans. Wait a second. You're big. You're hinging your argument on the return of Tank Dell and him being used in the slot. You got two big issues right there.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, right. And everyone's doing it. Everyone brings up Tank Dell of why the offense? I'm with you. I've said it since the injury occurred. Anything you get from him to me is just icing on the cake at this point. Or it's, it's gravy. You'll take it, but you shouldn't expect it.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

Last. Last Aaron shots. Audio of this is him talking about the Texans defense.

[Aaron Schatz]

You know, we talk a lot in our books about defense being harder to predict than offense. And the way we show that is that our, you know, our project, our projections are really the average of a range of possibilities. And the projections for defense are all closer to average than the ones for offense are because you could be, you know, you can feel better that a good offense is going to be good. That being said, you can feel about as good that the Houston Texans defense is going to be good as you can about any defense in the league in any year. I mean, they're just consistently good. It's not built on turnovers. It's not built on third downs. It's just built on stopping the other team. We know the talent is good. They didn't lose anybody. The defense just looks fantastic, like it should be really good again this year. So if you have an improved offense with that, you're talking about a serious

[Seth Payne]

super bowl contender, you know, and some of that goes back to. We had the listener yesterday say, hey, we were talking about how you got to be careful about just running it back, especially if you're not elite already. And somebody said, well, isn't that what they're doing on defense, just running it back? And I said, no, they're not. They added Caden McDonald, they added Reed Blankenship. But the other part of it too is even if they were just running it back, it's still dicey that, you know, you got to account that some guys are going to take a step backwards or whatever, but they were already elite and running it back. When you're elite, you can have a little bit more confidence in than running it back. Like with the Jaguars last year had an impressive second half of the season offensively, but is that enough to just say, oh yeah, we're running it back with these guys minus Travis Hn and that we're going to be just fine? I think that's. That's a completely different world with the Texans defense. It is rare that you're a top two defense in the league and you don't lose any of your impact playmakers and that they were able to kind of fill in the margins and some of the weaknesses from last year to boot that, that, you know, injuries can destroy any of your best laid plans. But it's really hard to look at that defense and say if they're, if they have the same injury luck that they had last year, yeah, I think they're going to be an elite defense. It's a it which is dicey when you try to predict defenses.

[Luke Morrow]

That's Aaron Shots and his thoughts on this Texan teams Texans team as he said they might be the best in the AFC coming up. Will will Will we continue to squander opportunities? Is this the Truman show or are the Astros going to be the ones to save us? We'll talk about it next year on

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that doesn't Suck is a legit, hard hitting American history podcast told through entertaining stories. As we approach America's 250th anniversary, now might be the time to go back and learn how we got here. With more than 200 episodes, you can binge your way decade by decade, defining event to defining event from the founding into the 20th century. Join me, Professor Greg Jackson for History that Doesn't Suck. An Odyssey Podcast available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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