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Luke Morrow
Is CJ Stroud just simply still too young? It's Payne and Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow in for Sean alongside Seth Payne. You can always join the conversation 713-572-4610 or get to us on the YouTube and Twitch chats. By the way, Seth, we were talking yesterday about that Taylor Swift Travis Kelsey wedding and we were wondering do we know anybody that was there? Oh yeah, I don't know if you saw I saw the photo yet last yeah, yeah, I think it was last night. Ross Tucker posted a photo of him and his wife. Supposedly Ross Tucker was at the wedding.
Seth Payne
Ross Tucker was at the Travis Kelsey. Oh my God. You know what? He's a big swifty.
Luke Morrow
Oh really?
Seth Payne
That was one of the most he got a lot of. He, he posted once emphatically that Taylor Swift was I know he's like a better, a better pop artist than Michael Jackson or something crazy. Something crazy that was gonna elicit a huge response and he got millions, millions of views on that 1. Like 99% negative. But yeah, I think he's, he's relatively a swifty but at least by middle aged man standards.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. So it's funny. He, he got the invite so we, we know somebody that was there. Might have to get the dirt. And, and by the way, I love Ross. Great guy. He joins you guys each week during the football season. I think he's really good at what he does, all that sort of stuff. But if you go and look at the photo online, he's doing the classic black suit with sneakers look.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
I gotta be honest. I don't know where you are, Seth. I think it's a terrible look for anybody. Not just, I'm not singling out Ross Tucker.
Seth Payne
They're, they're looks like they're black and white Jordans at least.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, at least they're Jordans. They're not like sketchers. But I think the sneakers with the suit look is terrible. I think when Jay Billis does it, I think when Ernie Johnson does it, I think it looks terrible. And I think they also just kind of look like corny or trying to be hip. I think it's a lousy look that we'll look back on years from now and think like why do people think wearing sneakers or the suit looked good?
Seth Payne
I think it's here to stay. I think for the most part a lot of people making that decision aren't worried about whether it looks good or not. They just like if I'm going to be spending a lot of time on my feet, I'm going to wear sneakers into hell with you. That's. I give my, I give them a pass on that. The only thing that keeps me from wearing sneakers with suits more often is that I don't keep my sneakers clean. So my, the shoes, you know, I wear them once or twice a year and I know they're not going to look dirty.
Luke Morrow
Right. So are you a sneakers and suit guy?
Seth Payne
If that's all I like. If I don't, I try not to be. But I don't worry about it. Sometimes I just don't want to pack shoes.
Luke Morrow
Right.
Seth Payne
So then I'll do it. So I don't know if I'm a sneaker. I, I've been. Yeah, I will wear sneakers with a suit. I would prefer not to, but it doesn't bother me when I, when I do it.
Luke Morrow
Gotcha. I probably should have asked that first before.
Seth Payne
Oh no, no, no.
Priceline Advertiser
That's all right.
Seth Payne
I don't know because I think though that was, that's one of the things the fashion minded people always crush sports anchors for that and everything. And I'm like, man, just getting these guys to wear suits at all is a victory. So don't hold your standards so high. Luke. Morrow Fashionista west you live in. That's right, Fancy lad.
Luke Morrow
And look, I'm somebody who, I show up here every day in shorts and a T shirt and I wear a hat every day.
Seth Payne
But your hats facing forward.
Peter Hamby
That's right.
Luke Morrow
Now that I'm talking about fashion here, I had to turn it around. But I can clean up okay. And I don't do the sneakers with suits. I think it looks silly, but nonetheless, hopefully Ross Tucker had fun at the wedding. Is CJ Stroud simply just still too young? Which sounds kind of silly or sounds like excuse making, but I thought this was really interesting. The athletic put together a breakdown of by position the ages of players in the league. And they looked at like where do players peak? And then where does the drop off begin? And again by position. The sad thing and Seth, obviously you lived this life as an NFL player and you had a long career. But the sad thing when you look at this graph and you listeners can go find it on the athletics website, but the sad thing is like the peak for quarterbacks seems to be age 24, running back, 24, wide receiver, 23, tight end, 24. You know, it's just, it's, it's a young man's game, so to speak. And then when you look at these graphs, there's not a lot of guys in their 30s that are having the long careers.
Seth Payne
Well but yeah, and I think though, but then where they go on to explain it, which is more encouraging, is that okay, these average ages of players, it's always heavily weighted by guys who are just no good at all. That's in only play a couple years in the NFL. So like the average, you know, the average, the average career of an NFL playing player being three and a half years. That's what they cited forever. It's a bit misleading because it's really weighed down by guys that you know, get a shot their rookie year in their second year and then they're washed out of the league. Whereas the guys that are actually good players and the guys that make the most impact at quarterback tend to do it around the ages from 29 to 31. So that's the part that like in with all of the skill position players and the offensive linemen that they do in this article, that's where I was actually happy that you sent this to us to me because it's a little bit of a reminder that man, sometimes you get bogged down when you trade for sign a veteran free agent that he's over the hill. Like not really the good players the good players tend to age, age pretty well into their late 20s, early 30s.
Luke Morrow
Right. So that's where I want to get to. Where. How does this relate to CJ Stroud specifically? Well, as you just said, they. They not only crunch the numbers of the ages of these players to see just simply what's the prime age for different position groups in the NFL, but then they also looked at average value for each position. And like you said, that peak, that prime for a quarterback is not until they turn 29 years old. The most successful years or the best value for quarterbacks have been from 29 to 33. But where the numbers start to turn red, where that quarterback is actually adding substantial value to their team isn't until they turn 25 years old and Stroud is still 24. So obviously nowadays in society, we lose. We've lost all patience. Especially in sports, we don't have patience.
Seth Payne
Yeah. And I think that that's where the. Things have kind of stabilized a little bit though is this dream that people love to have of, hey, you got to win a. Win a Super bowl while your quarterback's on his rookie contract. I think it's so enticing that people fall in love with the notion without realizing how rare it is for a quarterback to win a Super bowl on his rookie contract or while he's still a young quarterback that it is. If you take Mahomes and Brady out of it, you're, you're, you know, because those two guys were just slam dunk, okay, really special situations and scenarios. You're left with. What? Roethlisberger is the one guy that's won a quarterback at a young age like that. Russell Wilson was. Russell Wilson wasn't young. He was on his rookie contract, but because he had played baseball, he was a little bit older than most.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. The only three quarterbacks, like you said, under 25 to have win, Brady, Mahomes, the two greatest of all time. And by the way, when Brady was doing it, he was also passing for like 180 yards a game, whatever it was at that point. And then Roethlisberger, like you said, but again, same idea. Roethlisberger average about 195 passing yards per game when he won the super bowl and had I think 17 touchdown passes that year. Different time, of course, different era. An era you played in, Seth. But, but that was a team, a Steelers team that they were a very good defensive team. And Roethlisberger as a young quarterback was more of that game manager. Don't screw it up. Those are the only three quarterbacks to win a Super bowl before turning 25, which has now become the expectation for all these guys like Stroud, where Stroud isn't even 25 yet. But we feel like it's a disappointment that he hasn't at least gotten to a Super Bowl.
Seth Payne
And I think even if you include Russell Wilson in that, who I think was 25 when he won the Super Bowl, I think so was the. Those guys. None of those guys were the quarterbacks they would become. And it's just, it's not as simple as just saying, oh yeah, Russell Wilson plopped onto some other team was going to win a Super Bowl. He had that defense, he had Marshawn lynch, he had all those things. So I, I think that's where the pendulum is swung back. And white teams aren't as eager to just say, oh, it's. It's our quarterback. And he's in his. He's. He just finished his third year. We got to give him a huge contract because where are you going to find a quarterback? Well, it turns out that guys like for one, I mean if you look at veterans who are already proven in the league, but that you can go out and get a Matt Stafford or you can get a Tom Brady, that's one thing. But then the Sam Darnolds, the Geno Smiths, the other guys that were relative late bloomers, you can see where, man, being in an imperfect situation earlier in your career really makes it hard to judge whether what a guy is as a quarterback. Eli Manning, I think is a guy that maybe back in an era when they had more patience with guys I like. Eli Manning was afforded a lot of patience in his first couple of years where he really wasn't playing very impressive football. Like I feel like in this day and age he might have been run out of town.
Luke Morrow
True.
Seth Payne
By after his second year. Except that his last name is Manning. So they're going to keep giving you the benefit of the doubt as long as your last name is Manning.
Luke Morrow
Right.
Seth Payne
Yeah, with good reason. Like, even if the reasoning is wrong, it ends up working out.
Luke Morrow
Shoot things. When was. Which year? Which season was it when Peyton finally turned things around?
Seth Payne
Because I feel like today he, he was already. He was really good in the regular season. Very early it was put in the playoffs. He was atrocious.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, that's fair.
Seth Payne
He just, he was like. That was the label on him. Was that okay, he's a regular season quarterback. There was a little bit of a like a James Harden type dynamic going on with him early in his career.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, yeah, that's fair. But yeah. So Stroud and to your point. Well, yeah, let me go in this direction first, because to your point, people point to like Sam Darnold. Like you said, we look at the Seahawks last year and think like, man, if Sam Darnold could turn things around, why can't shrapnel? Well, Darnold's 28. We point to Daniel Jones, who seemed to revitalize his career in Indianapolis last year. Also 28. Baker Mayfield's another example of that guy that really turned things around once he got to Tampa and made his first Pro bowl. He was also 28. So it goes back to the point the athletic was making of these guys. These quarterbacks don't hit their prime, their peak until they're almost 30 years old. Shroud is 24. He's the fifth youngest starting quarterback in the league still.
Seth Payne
Yeah, that if, like Eli Manning, if you go to the 2007, which was a pretty good year for the giants, he was 26 years old. He was in his fourth year in the NFL and he threw 23 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, quarterback rating of 73.9. Oh, my gosh. And that was the year when everything really turned around for the Giants. And yet he still, he would go on to have much better numbers than that in his career, but he'd been, he'd been a pretty mediocre quarterback. Is a time he would have better numbers than that. He still doesn't have any. He doesn't have an impressive resume like in the regular season as a quarterback. It's the fact that he's talked about as a potential hall of Famer is based exclusively on those two super bowl.
Belgard Advertiser
For sure.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, he's. He led the league in interceptions three times and they were never like back to back years. Like, he did it when he was 26. He did it when he was 29. He did it when he was 32. Like every three years he would just lead the league in interceptions. He never got. Got that out of him.
Seth Payne
Imagine if C.J. stroud. And it's not even that much different of an era. But yeah, in 2013, if C.J. like, if, if, if this year, Eli, C.J. had Eli's 2013 year, 18 touchdowns, 27 intersections.
Luke Morrow
Oh, my goodness. And then Eli still went on to start like another decade or whatever after that.
Seth Payne
Yeah, he would go on to play through 2019. Incredible. Before he was benched.
Luke Morrow
That's a brutal season. 27 interceptions to 18 touchdowns. Yeah. Let's hope something like that doesn't come here. But yeah, I was looking into it and again it sounds like, I said it sounds like excuse making and whatnot. We saw what Stroud could do his first year and we've seen these other quarterbacks seem to pop pretty or some guys seem to pop right away like a Mahomes or whatever. Even the Josh Allen early on was pretty good. Still hasn't made, you know, still hasn't made it to the Super Bowl. But when you look at the 10 youngest quarterbacks in the league last year, excluding C.J. stroud, those 10 quarterbacks combined for four playoff wins and only one was from somebody not Drake May. I phrase that terribly, but Drake May had three of those playoff wins on his way to the super bowl and we know he didn't have a great playoff run. And then Caleb Williams had the other win. Those are the only of the bottom 10 quarterbacks in age last year to have any sort of playoff victories. My point being it's our patience might be too thin, our expectations might be too high, where it's still really tough for these young quarterbacks to have the ultimate success.
Seth Payne
It's the hardest thing in the world though, to just believe in that as a fan. Because the fact of the matter is that most quarterbacks who are mediocre in their first few seasons remain mediocre quarterbacks or bad or they don't continue to get that chance. And even quarterbacks that are promising in their first few seasons, you know, there's only so many good quarterbacks at any given time. Bonafide really genuinely good quarterbacks at any time. So it's just hard to have that. It's hard for some people. Some people are dyed, you know, dyed in the wool they'll build, ride with CJ until they die no matter what. But just pointing out the, the few that actually make it doesn't mean that. Yeah, everybody who struggles in their second and third season or just put up mediocre results end up turning a corner at some point. The majority just never actually turned the corner.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, yeah, it's true. By the way, in case you're curious and you can go find this online, I found it interesting. We obviously have focus on the quarterback position, but the athletic also looked at what age does each position group, you know, hit their highest value. And so as quarterback, like we said, it's 29 to 33. Running back is right away 21 years old. They're in, in the red, which means high average value. And then they really fall off once they get to 32, which of course, we all figured wide receiver. Their. Their prime range is from 29 to 31. Tight end, surprisingly, the highest value. And maybe this is bolstered by like a Travis Kelsey or something, you know, just a couple of guys. Tony Gonzalez, but they have it at 33 to 35 is the highest value for tight ends.
Seth Payne
You know, what's funny is that, yeah, I think that a few guys there, including. I don't know how far. I don't know how far back they went in this, but even Gronk at his age, like when he clearly wasn't the same guy physically, the being a big target, being savvy, especially in the red zone and all of those things that. That. That kind of factor into it if you're paired with the right quarterback. They. They, like tight ends, aren't penalized as much by losing a step or two. I think it's a good point in their overall athleticism, like their. Their savviness pays off as much as their actual athletic traits by that point. And then offensive line is like, I think. I can't remember you mentioned it yet if you're going there, but yeah, offensive linemen are by far like the most impressive in terms of guys just playing the impact. Guys being 29, 30, 31 years old, they have a lot of value still.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, offensive tackle and center, they still have the high value up to 37 years old. So those guys can. Can play for a long time.
Seth Payne
Which is a little bit of survivor bias there, though, too, just because some of the guys, like, yeah, the guys that are the only guys that are still playing at that age tend to also be really good. So like Whitworth or, you know, Trent Williams, guys like that. That. That probably weights it a little bit more than. Than. Than what's accurate for most guys.
Luke Morrow
That's a good point. By the way, for the center position, you don't start hitting red, which, again, for the purposes of this exercise, you want to be as red as possible. That's your highest value. That's the way the Athletic did it for these charts, if that makes sense. And for centers, that doesn't come till 30 years old. And we're talking, of course, about a Texans team that might be starting a rookie center this year. So, you know, we'll see what that means for the offensive line.
Seth Payne
Yeah, that's. It's. But at the same time, you never want to have an offensive line. That's. That's all old guys.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, true.
Seth Payne
There's got to be some balancing there. There's an old rule of 150, which is if you're, if you're starting offensive line averages, if their ages add up to 150 or more, you're headed for disaster. So that's where I think a little bit of that survivor bias comes in. Where. Yeah, like some of the, the guys that continue to play well into their 30s tend to also be really good offensive linemen. A lot of the other guys are getting rolled out because why, why do I have this 32 year old injury waiting to happen on my offensive line? Screw this guy. He's out of here. Go be a backup somewhere.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, that's. Since I actually have never heard that, but I like that idea of the 150. That's, that's an interesting a number philosophy. By the way, did you see in this, which position group has on average the longest career in NFL history?
Seth Payne
Is it kickers?
Luke Morrow
Oh, that would be a good one. I actually don't think they included kickers, to be honest with you. I didn't see it on the list. But it's, it's defensive tackles.
Seth Payne
Oh, really?
Luke Morrow
Yeah.
Seth Payne
Huh.
Luke Morrow
And so I.
Seth Payne
Makes me feel like kind of a bum for being sold out at 32.
Luke Morrow
Oh yeah. I was going to say. I don't mean it as a backhanded compliment, but I think you chose the right position if you wanted, if somebody wants to have a lengthy NFL career. Historically, defensive tackles stick around the longest.
Seth Payne
There were 17 guys. I, you know, again, the, I think some of the outliers end up beefing it up more because they, what they did was the guys, the people who had at least 10 seasons, played at least 400 snaps in 2025 with PFF grades of at least 60. So they're viable defensive tackles. There were 17 defensive tackles that met those criteria last year. I feel like the Texans probably help for depending on what they. I've seen Danico Autry classified as a defensive tackle on some depth charts, so maybe they included him there. But yeah, I think part of that is that because defensive lines rotate, you know, and that's, that's pretty much the standard, not the exception these days that there are a lot of 30 year old guys that are, you know, they're backups but they're playing a lot in a rotation and it's a nice, it's a nice semi retirement you can have when you're a 34 year old defensive tackle that plays like 20 or 25 snaps a game.
Luke Morrow
That's true. That's a good point. It's like Pat Williams Played until he was like, I think like almost 40 because he was just a, you know, run stuffer that played half the game, if that. Yeah, they just brought him in on running down. So. Yeah, so you mentioned the 17 defensive tackles. Zero cornerbacks fit that criteria. Last year of a veteran of 10 plus seasons, played at least 400 snaps, had a grade of at least 60. Pro Football Focus, I was surprised. Zero cornerbacks.
Seth Payne
So that's obviously cornerback, but that's, that's a position where it does. The, the traits are so important, the high end physical traits that a lot of times those guys just fall off a cliff all of a sudden. They're awesome. They're awesome, they're awesome. And then, boom, you lose that half a step and it just, you can't make up for it with savvy the way you can at some of the other positions.
Luke Morrow
So you can find it all on the Athletic. Again, sounds like a cop out. Sounds like an easy excuse. But are we forgetting the fact that, hey, maybe C.J. shroud is just still simply too young? Quarterbacks historically don't reach that prime until their late twenties. You look at the reclamation projects. Darnold, Geno, Smith, Baker, Daniel Jones, they're all in their late 20s. Meanwhile, you know, not a lot of quarterbacks are actually winning Super Bowls this young.
Seth Payne
But this is where if the Texans don't indeed end up extending CJ Stroud and there's like, it doesn't really feel right, this moment like they're going to extend him. I think that this is where two things can be true. Like, you can think that your quarterback just needs more time to work it out, but that doesn't mean that you also have to extend his contract while you're waiting for him to work it out. And it just, it became way too much of the standard thinking that, oh, okay, a quarterback who still has a lot of promise and we don't know what his upside is after his third year, oh, we better lock him in because what if, what if he ends up being really awesome and we have to pay him more money? Okay, cool. That's a nice problem to have. Like having to pay him a bunch of money when it doesn't end up working out for him eventually. That's a much worse problem to have than, oh, we've got to pay our, our awesome quarterback an extra $10 million a year now, like one of those you can work with. The other one makes you A, lose your job as a general manager and B, the organization has to start from scratch again.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, yeah, it's, it's a good point that we can make this argument on both sides, like you said. I mean, we can say it's why we should wait on CJ Stroud or cut him some slack, but then also why the Texans would want to wait to get more information or just wait in general on the quarterback to still see him grow.
Seth Payne
Yeah, the problem is that it's like he's not an index fund. You know, you can, if you've got an index fund, you can say, look, look over time. Let's just give it, give it 10 years and you're going to be just fine. Don't worry about what's going on right now. The problem with quarterbacks is that you've got to, you've got to sell them completely and buy a new fund. And it's just the law of averages doesn't work out that way. So it's really hard to just say, well, stick with this quarterback for 10 years. He just needs 10 time and patience. There comes a point where, and this is where the people in the organization hopefully have a better feel for things than anything we can see on the outside. Just based on how CJ Operates in the building, what is, what's his process in coming back from bad losses, how is he actually executing the offense? Those are the things you can get a good feel for over the course of four years that maybe give them a much better feel at the end of this season about whether, like, all right, yep, we're full bore in on CJ or, you know what, we got to start maybe thinking about some alternative plans.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. And I'm the type that in my life, I like to gain. Maybe it's, maybe it's a problem, maybe I need to be a better decision maker. But I like to gain as much information as I can before I make a decision. So if you don't have to pay the guy just yet, let's give it another year and see what else we can gain before we make that decision. And as you said, I have no problem paying a peace of mind tax that if I'm gonna have to pay more for him a year from now than now, but I feel a lot better about him a year from now. That's fine with me. I feel a lot more comfortable than just simply making a payment because I have to make a payment or just to try to save me money, you
Peter Hamby
know, down the road.
Seth Payne
Nick Casario is a big fan of Morgan Housel guy that writes books about money, financial management and all of that. And in One of the books, I don't know if it was Psychology of Money or one of these, but one of the big points is that in talking about people who are rich and then go broke, you know, people that got their money just through business, they're smart and everything, but when they don't, when the mistake they make is often just not planning to avoid catastrophe. So that, like, in any amount of aggressive moves or whatever, you always have to be asking yourself, okay, wait a second. Is the downside of this. Is the downside of this plan just economic ruin? And be aware that that's more potential than it probably feels like, it's more probable than it feels like at any given point. So in paying a quarterback after his third season, you look at the benefit would be, oh, okay, we could lock him in at a reduced rate for a long time. Okay, cool. That's nice to have. What's the downside? Oh, economic catastrophe. We've got a situation like the Dolphins or you've got the Cardinals, and we're going to have to start from scratch all over. I feel like the risk benefit there is. I'm way more scared of the catastrophe of paying a quarterback that you're not 100% sure about and everything that that entails, more so than I am paying a little bit extra for a quarterback once he gets paid and paying him an amount that other teams in the league are going have to pay for their quarterbacks, too. It's not like it's. It's not like it's something that other teams don't have to deal with and that they end up succeeding, you know, by working through. I would. I've. I'm all about avoiding the catastrophe in a situation like this.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, I'm with you a hundred percent, which is why, honestly, I. I'm. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. But if we really boil down to it, like you just laid out, I don't get the outrage or the big conversation about, like, how have they not paid the guy yet? Because this isn't the final decision. You don't have to make the call just now. We still have time. And ideally, you want to get as much information as you can before you make such a big decision like that
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Peter Hamby
Understanding power requires more than headlines I'm Peter Hamby, host of the Powers that Be, a podcast from PAC examining politics, economics, and media. To provide context, analysis, and clarity without sensationalism, we ask how power operates, who benefits, and what's at stake. If you want to move beyond breaking news to deeper understanding, join us on the Powers that Be New episodes every weekday. Follow the Powers that Be wherever you get your podcasts.
Seth Payne
I think that's the word. I think sometimes I think people mix up the conversations, and I think it was Brandon Scott that first laid this out earlier this year when he just said, you know, there's two conversations about. There are two conversations about CJ Stroud. On the one hand, is okay, should you extend him? That's a different conversation than all right, is he a functioning starter in the NFL? What is his ceiling? All of that. That it's it's okay. It's, it's possible and okay to say all right, I think CJ's got a lot of upside, and I think we, you know, even if you have confidence that he's going to be good, that's not the same conversation as you got to pay him this year. And I do, I think a lot of teams that are really eager to sign that quarterback, if anything, it's a sign of weakness in their organization. More so than it is a statement about the quarterback himself.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, 100%. I've said the same thing. I believe in congruent arguments. So I. Look, I don't think the Texans should pay CJ Stroud just yet. Doesn't mean I think CJ Stroud is terrible and shouldn't be the starting quarterback. So there is that middle ground. You can be in both. It's like. What were those?
Seth Payne
The Venn diagram.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. Is it the Venn diagram with the two overlapping circles? Y. Yeah. And I'm in the middle. I, you know, don't pay him. But he's also not terrible yet or just terrible in general. So yeah, you can exist there. And I agree. I agree with that sentiment from B. Scott. I said the same thing that, you know, we can have different conversations on this whole thing. By the way, I just looked at the text line. Somebody said needed some hate and ass. Luke this a.m. let's go. In regard to the whole suits conversation, we actually got a lot of feedback on that. Whatever that.
Seth Payne
I bet people are pretty split about the sneakers with suits thing, huh?
Luke Morrow
Yes, a lot of feedback. One texture said the worst look ever are these suits that look undersized and have high waters and short sleeves. I've come around on the high waters on the suits.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
But admittedly I hate this other fashion statement now where people wear not loafers, not like slip ons, but they'll wear dress shoes without any socks.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
And then they wear the high waters. I don't like that look. To me it's too much male ankle. I don't like it. Either wear socks or longer pants.
Seth Payne
You know what I really don't like are these dainty little loafers that some guys wear with shorts in the summer. Like with no socks there where it's almost like they're like tiny little loafers that are nice shoes and they're wearing them with like golf pants and a
Luke Morrow
golf shirt like the outsiders. Like the boat shoes.
Seth Payne
No, they're not boat shoes. They're dainty. I don't know what the hell they are, but they're dainty shoes. And it's just, it's way too. It's just way too. It's way too middle class a look for me. Like, like, like it just, it feels like you're trying to. Or upper middle class. Like whatever. Like you're just. You're trying too hard to look fancy and casual. I don't like that.
Luke Morrow
I get that. Somebody said we, we got to get Luke some Concord 11. So change his mind then Admittedly, I don't know what Concord 11s are.
Seth Payne
I'm gonna have to Google those dainty little loafers. I Googled it, and I got these classic breathable lace loafers up. That's why I don't. They're dainty little loafers.
Luke Morrow
Classic breathable lace loafers. I gotta get eyes on this. Now see what you're talking about.
Seth Payne
You'll see. You'll see them out in nature and you'll be. You'll be like, that's. That's not for me. They look actually pretty comfortable, though. I just. I don't like when you try to. That's where I feel like that's. That's a situation where somebody might say, well, now, sneakers would look a little too casual here. I'm going to go with these ridiculously looking little dainty shoes. Like I'm a 17th century aristocrat or something. I just. Yeah, I just. That's. I don't like it. I don't like.
Luke Morrow
Dainty is such a great word to use to describe it. It just makes it sound so bad. People said. Or another text said, people in the 80s said the same about T shirts with a suit and rolling up the jacket sleeves. Now, we all still do that, right? Right?
Belgard Advertiser
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
Like the Don Johnson, Miami Vice look. Yeah, same thing. You look back on that and think, like, what was that guy thinking? I think that's going to be the sneakers with suits look years from now.
Seth Payne
Sneaker. Okay. So pretty much fashion from any era looks dumb when you look at it a decade or two.
Luke Morrow
That is true.
Seth Payne
And then three decades later, it looks really, really cool. But I mean, some of the stuff that. That's how it was with the 70s. You know, you used to look at some of the clothes and the suits and everything that people would wear in the 70s. You're like, that's the dumbest thing I've ever seen in my entire life. And then it kind of came back and you're like, oh, it's cool. I kind of see the flair with all of that, and then it'll look stupid again. So, yeah, never, never think that you're doing anything that isn't gonna look stupid in future years. If you're doing anything that's remotely, like, outside, just like the very standard fashion.
Luke Morrow
That's fair.
Seth Payne
So wear your sneakers with suits. Don't let Luke Morrow shame you.
Luke Morrow
No, no, no.
Seth Payne
You got too many people. You got too many people on Instagram and TikTok shaming you for how you look and how you need to be More alpha this and all that. Ah, do what you like.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. I do get embarrassed when I look back at photos from whatever, the early 2000s with how baggy the clothes were, especially for athletes. You look back at the basketball jerseys of like the, you know, 2005 range, 2005, 2010. It was the pants, the jersey, everything was so baggy. It looks so weird now. But that was obviously. That was the look back.
Seth Payne
That's actually. But that's what's coming back now.
Luke Morrow
Yeah.
Priceline Advertiser
Which is weird.
Seth Payne
Like these super oversized pants and everything. Lot of. You got a lot of grown men in their 20s looking like skater kids that see like what I told you just now when you look back and you think, oh, wow, that was look so stupid. It's coming right back into vogue.
Luke Morrow
No, it's true. And I will agree with this texture from the 8, 3, 2. They said you, Seth. Nailed it. As long as the shoes are comfortable. That's the big reason. Especially if you have a former athlete whose feet probably hurt from playing sports.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
And that's fair because this all started with the Ross Tucker conversation and he obviously was an NFL lineman. So I do get that. That if it is an issue where you got banged up feet or whatever, you need more comfortable shoes. I understand. But in general, I just don't like the look.
Seth Payne
The most impressive people to me are always just the people that genuinely do not give a single damn about what your fashion norms are. And either. Sometimes those are super artsy people that are just wearing whatever the hell they feel like wearing that day. And it's impressive. But then on the flip side, it is the guy that just is totally comfortable looking like a bum wherever he goes. And it helps if you're super rich, you can get away with that more. Like you see a guy in a restaurant that's got a dress code, but there's one guy in there and flip flops and a T shirt. Okay, that guy. That guy, like, either owns the place or knows people or something, and he's just. He just does not give a single damn.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, I said that yesterday about Adam Sandler. Like, that's how I want to be. If I ever came into a lot of money, I would dress like a total bum, too. Just so people think like, wow, what a bum. And then.
Seth Payne
Yeah, because with Sandler, it's not even like. It's not just that he's wearing unimpressive clothes or whatever. He just genuinely doesn't care how it looks like. There's nothing about, like, the. The clothes that he's wearing where it's like, okay, he doesn't want to spend a lot of money on clothes, but he looks good. Like. No, no, he just, he genuinely does not care.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. Does it match?
Seth Payne
Just looks like a college kid that just, you know, woke up late and had to make it to chemistry.
Luke Morrow
Exactly.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
Somebody else, another texter said, I can't find the text now, but they were saying, these are the trendsetters. These are the athletes doing this. Why don't you get in line? Yeah. Also, you know, Jenko jeans was once a trend as well. And, and you know, the chains, wallets and whatnot, like we already laid out. Not all trends are great or certainly stay in style.
Seth Payne
Plus, I wouldn't put NFL football players in the trendsetter category. We're the, like, fashion wise, we're the dorkiest of sports. Partly because of just body type. It's just harder for guys to. And then you know what happens? A lot of guys, they kind of get sucked into some custom tailor early in their career. And a lot of times those guys are just, they're just, they suck. They're selling guys on crap that doesn't look good, but they've got their, they've got their athlete and they're buying their bill. You know, they're designing custom clothes for them and everything. But it's not anything that, you know, Italian Vogue isn't picking it up for tips.
Luke Morrow
By the way, multiple texters said the dainty shoes you're referring to are called driver loafers.
Seth Payne
Oh, okay. Yeah, I don't like the driver loafers. I don't think it's a good look for men. Even if I'm sitting here and acting like I don't give a damn what people wear or whatever, there's something about those driver loafers that rub me the wrong way. They just look a little. You know what I can do? I could see my. I could see my grandfather looking at a guy in those loafers and just kind of sneering at him because this guy obviously doesn't know how to do anything manual. It just that sort of. I'm letting my grandfather's biases creep into it.
Luke Morrow
And somebody else said, tell Seth he's right on those velvet looking, slim, glorified, smoking jacket type house slim slippers look weird with shorts.
Seth Payne
They're too dainty.
Luke Morrow
Dainty is a great word. So there you go. There's the fashion. The fashion tips from. From your morning show. Yeah. Last text I'll read somebody said sneakers and suits do not go together. It is tacky looking. Thank you. That's what I'm saying.
Seth Payne
You know, the thing is though, what if. I think there's a time you can pull it off, but it's got to be with like a super casual suit, right?
Luke Morrow
Yeah. Right.
Seth Payne
Like as far as my stance is, I don't really care because a lot of times it's just for comfort. But you can pull it off sometimes. Right. If it's like it's just got to be a certain look or something.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. I do agree. And I think they, they've created that happy medium where they are. I'm wearing some right now where they are like sneakers, but they look dressy. They're not Jordans.
Home Depot Advertiser
That's the thing.
Luke Morrow
Like when you're wearing high top Jordans and it bundles up your. The bottom of your pants at the top of the shoes. Like, it just looks. It looks silly. But there's are. There are plenty of sneakers out there that are sneakers that look dressy and I think those look really good with suits.
Seth Payne
Can't wait to castigate Ross Tucker the next time he comes.
Luke Morrow
Yes.
Seth Payne
Over to shoe where.
Luke Morrow
I know. I wish this. It's Tuesday. He. I wish it was the NFL season. He'd be joining us today. We could talk about the wedding. We could talk about his.
Seth Payne
I don't think. Has anybody talked about the wedding. I feel like there are a bunch of NDAs signed. Is sure.
Luke Morrow
I haven't heard anything. Bill Simmons did a. I saw somebody. It went viral. Bill Simmons did a funny bit where he pretended he was at the wedding on his podcast and his producers were asking him questions.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
And he was answering the questions and they were like, I guess believing and going along with it. And then at the end he was like, yeah, I didn't go to the wedding. I was just trying to make you believe. So no. That's the closest thing we got. No, I don't think anyone has spoken on it. And to your point, I don't think anyone can.
Seth Payne
Yeah. I don't think Ross is going to tell us anything. He's not. He doesn't have the resources to fight Taylor Swift lawyers.
Priceline Advertiser
I don't know.
Seth Payne
Apple for Christ. Yeah, they know. There's. There's not a chance in hell he's going to say a thing about it.
Luke Morrow
Yeah. Hey, coming up a little bit later on, we'll get to David Montgomery, top running back list. But when we come back, are we being unfair to Cam Smith? I sort of just defended CJ Stroud. I guess I'll defend Cam Smith. Next. Are we being unfair to the young outfielder? We'll talk about it next on Pain and Pendergast.
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Seth Payne
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It did, actually.
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Luke Morrow
Are you being unfair to Cam Smith? It's Payne and Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow in for Sean alongside Seth Payne. You can always text the show 713-572-4610 to join the conversation on the text line where we did hear from somebody who tailors suits for professional athletes here in Houston. So oh yeah, we got everybody out there listening. Join the conversation on YouTube and Twitch as well. Are we being unfair to Cam Smith?
Seth Payne
Wait, you said somebody texted in who does Taylor Professional tailor suits for professional athletes? What's he say? He's probably one of the good ones.
Luke Morrow
He said we do all the suits for Houston pro athletes, including many of the Astros. Tapered and somewhat form fitting. We tailor suits, yada yada yada. Anyways, they said sneakers can work as long as they are clean and fit with the event.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
Oh, and then they also said we'd love to have you stop by. All right. I got a wedding going to a wedding later this month, so hey, hook me up. I'll be there. Adam Ross custom. Appreciate you listening. I won't be wearing sneakers about take the suit. Are we being unfair to Cam Smith? I had this realization the other day and he had a good night last night, like the whole back half of the lineup did for the Astros. But I had this realization of, you know, like he's going to be a. He's like a Gold Glove outfielder last I checked, which might have been maybe two weeks ago. He was towards the top of the league and like defensive run saved for outfielders.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
And he's on pace to hit 20 homers and his batting average obviously is not there. You know, he's a career.230 hitter, which is not good. But we're grading on a curve when it comes to batting average these days. That's almost like a.260 hitter 25 years ago, you know, not terrible, which sounds crazy to say. But my point being Gold Glove 20 Homer guy, wouldn't you sign that for up for that each year to have a very good right fielder who's going to have some pop in the lineup. That's almost like an, you know, Andrew Jones had a Hall of Fame career by just playing good outfield hitting homers. I think he had a career like.250 average, was never a great hitter, but he's a Hall of Famer because he played good defense and had some pop. Cam Smith can do that for you. I think Cam Smith is almost a. What's the word I'm looking for. I think he's been hurt by the expectations that have been bestowed upon him.
Seth Payne
Well, I think, I guess the only issue I have with that is that you're also like, if you're going to say, okay, this is what he's going to be. I'd be kind of alarmed if a guy who probably came up into the majors too early and he was fast tracked as this shiny new toy that you need to get him into the majors, he can learn on the fly as much as possible that in his second year, this is going to be what he is for the rest of his career. Like, he's still very, very young and he has been like in a. I did an extreme cherry pick where I went down. I went back 43 games to May 9th. But like, okay, let's cherry pick a little bit it. Since May 9, he's got a.756 OPS. So he's an above average or just right around average, a little bit above average as at the plate while also being really, really good in the outfield. He's got a. For whatever it's worth, his war is 1/10 above Kyle Tucker's overall war right now. Yeah, if you want to go for B refs war, that's where he is, you know, and it's. This is all anchored by defense. It never feels. I hate, I hate taking somebody's overall WAR and acting like that tells the whole picture because, like having a guy who's a drain in your lineup doesn't. It isn't offset by his defensive contributions. But I think that, I think for where he is right now and what your expectations should be, reasonably, there's just no reason to. There's no reason for me, at least that I can think of that, oh yeah, this is what he's going to be for the rest of his career. And like, he's already sealed his fate. In terms of not being A plus player at the plate.
Luke Morrow
I would normally agree with you, but I did this exercise a few weeks back when I was on a different show and I looked into it and I asked again, going back to AI, I didn't do the. I didn't do the legwork, But I asked AI, I said, give me players that hit.230 or worse through the first 1,000 plate appearances and I wanted to see if they ever did turn it around. And the only guy there was one, I think it was Mike Schmidt was the only guy that turned into like a great baseball player after struggling that mightily early on. Cam Smith is now over 800 plate appearances. So he's not at a thousand yet, but I think He's a career like 229 hitter. Historically and again, batting average, we have to look at it on a curve now, but historically guys that don't hit well or at least hit for average through their first 1,000 plate appearances.
Seth Payne
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
They don't turn it around enough to at least become like a perennial All Star or Hall of Famer.
Seth Payne
Yeah, I guess. Yeah, I guess. Wait, did you say Mike Schmidt?
Luke Morrow
I think Mike Schmidt was the one.
Seth Payne
I guess that's like a pretty high bar. It's weird that Mike Schmidt would be the only. So that's a. If you're, if you're saying, okay, he's not going to be Mike Schmidt, I'm not going to cry into my pillow at night over that necessarily. Was that. But that was that the only notably good like guy that became an All Star, etc, etc, Right. At any point.
Priceline Advertiser
Yeah.
Luke Morrow
The only notable guy that was batting.230 or worse through their first a thousand career plate appearances and then really turned it on.
Seth Payne
It's hard though because it is. Batting average is such a. Yeah. An afterthought now in terms of what guys are even worried about or concerned about the power is what intrigues people like with Cam Smith more than anything.
Luke Morrow
Right. And to your point. And look war like you laid out. It's not a perfect stat. Take it with a grain of salt. What is it good for? But I had to take the low hanging fruit. But, but, but it shows that what he does overall, all encompassing when you factor in the defense that to this point statistically he's been more valuable than even a Kyle Tucker. Even though he's batting only like 229. He doesn't draw a ton of walks, but he hits homers. He plays really good defense and that adds something to a team. So I think there's two things at play for Cam Smith. Number one, he's part of the worst outfield in the MLB right now and one of the worst in Astros history. So I think he gets grouped into that. That when the people next to him look so bad. We can be guilty of associating Cam Smith with the Jake Myers and the Joey Loper Feto in the minors. I don't think it helps that the outfield just overall we have such negative thoughts about the outfield because it's been so bad and Cam Smith's part of the outfield.
Seth Payne
Yeah. And then I mean it doesn't help when you've got both of your, you know, the guys that you've put all your faith into, including Bryce Matthews, who's new to the outfield himself and also isn't providing anything either. Like the, We've gone from back in the day waiting for, oh boy, when's Springer gonna come up? When's Carlos Correa gonna come up? When Alex Bregman coming up. We've gone to like, oh no, you don't have to wait for those guys to come up. We're just gonna throw them out there and they're gonna disappoint you. I feel like it's a, it's a double whammy that we don't even get the, the anti. We don't get as much of an anticipation. Anticipation for their, for their arrivals. And then it's been a very underwhelming appearance when they do show up.
Luke Morrow
And then the other thing though, to me is like I said, the expectations where it's not Cam Smith's fault. They labeled him as like the number one prospect in this camp Miss guy. It's almost like the preseason rankings in college sports where when a team doesn't live up to that ranking, it's like, oh, what a disappointment. This team stinks. And it's like, well, they didn't put that ranking on themselves. Maybe just all of the college football writers had it wrong and overrated or overvalued this team. Similar at Cam Smith where people are going to say, oh, what a bust, he was the number one prospect. Well, he didn't assign himself as that. Maybe it was the evaluators who were wrong, put these lofty expectations on him. But if you were to remove those expectations and say he was a no name minor leaguer, but just hypothetically speaking, say he's your right fielder for 10 years winning Gold Gloves and hitting 20 homers a year, I think a lot of teams would sign up for that. Yeah, but because he's supposed to be.
Seth Payne
Well, it's a, I mean, for, for the trade and being able to, you know, you know, claim victory in that trade, which I think they already can just by virtue of the, the number of guys that you brought in that are actual contributors. And we'll see about Wozneski when he comes back. That, that, that part of it, the expectations and him being a five tool player and everything else that goes along with it. Yeah, I don't, but I don't. Have you sensed, have you sensed a whole lot of frustration about Cam Smith specifically? I don't feel like the fan base is done with Cam Smith or something. But maybe I don't spend enough time on social media.
Luke Morrow
Honestly, I think they moved. I think it was a lot of Cam Smith early on, like the second half of last year and early this season. And then this kind of goes against the point I made a few moments ago. But I think people have moved on to like Joey Lorfito, Jake Meyer, like the other disappointments, even though they don't have as high of a profile as Cam Smith. But I think there's other guys that are doing worse. Mike Burroughs, you know, Ima that they're the ones drawing the ire. And you kind of, you let Cam Smith slide because he's not the worst guy on the team right now. So we'll see on the text line. Somebody said if Cam Smith was still at second base, he would be considered top 25% of second baseman. Yeah, maybe. And another I like this other text coming up next. Are we being too hard on Reed Shepard? Yeah, I guess.
Priceline Advertiser
Maybe.
Seth Payne
I know.
Luke Morrow
Let's do the maybe I'm being too positive.
Seth Payne
Pause in early July here and figure out who we're being too tough. Yeah, I was a little mean about that Pulisic character earlier on. I got to give him another decade, see if he can figure it out.
Luke Morrow
Yeah, I guess I've been too positive here this past hour. So when we come back, let's flip the, flip the bill here and get to the petty cast who's being petty in the sports world. We'll bring you the audio next. Pain and Pen or guess.
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Chevrolet Together Let's Drive Listeners I want to tell you about a new podcast from Odyssey called Family Lore, where people tell interesting stories about their family history and then we investigate the truth behind them. Family Lore is available now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your shows.
Episode: Is Stroud Just Too Young? + Should Texans Extend CJ Now? + Are We Being Unfair to Cam Smith?
Date: July 7, 2026
Hosts: Seth Payne, Luke Morrow (in for Sean Pendergast)
This episode takes a deep dive into the themes of expectations versus reality for young athletes, centering on Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud’s age and development, whether the team should already be extending his contract, and broader perspectives on career arcs in the NFL. The second half of the hour shifts gears to the Astros’ Cam Smith and how fair the criticism (or praise) of his performance has been. There’s also a recurring playful fashion debate, plus interactive banter with listeners.
With their signature blend of playful banter, sharp stats, and passionate sports philosophy, Seth and Luke debate whether expectations for young Houston stars are fair—whether in NFL contract urgency or MLB prospect grading. They urge patience, prudent decision-making, and context—both on the field and even in the world of fashion.
For Houston fans and beyond, this episode provides not just local insight, but an honest, data-driven approach to sports development and the dangers of modern impatience—delivered with wit, humility, and the willingness to laugh about both the game and themselves.