How Big is the 2027 Draft for the Rockets? + Does KD Seem Happy Here?

Summary

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Payne & Pendergast: How Big is the 2027 Draft for the Rockets? + Does KD Seem Happy Here?

Date: July 10, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode, guest-hosted by Luke Morrow (sitting in for Sean Pendergast) alongside Seth Payne, centers around the Houston Rockets' quiet offseason and frames the big questions looming over the franchise. The conversation spotlights the significance of the upcoming 2027 NBA Draft, Houston's valuable picks, and whether fans should feel hopeful about the roster as it stands. The duo also dives into the nuanced topic of Kevin Durant's happiness in Houston and reactions to recent criticism of the organization from ex-player Dennis Schröder.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Should Rockets Fans Look Ahead to the 2027 Draft?

[01:14 – 04:19]

• Frustration with Quiet Offseason:

  • Luke notes the lack of moves this summer, contrasting it with other teams’ activity. He wonders if hope for Rockets fans lies more in next year and the potential of 2027 draft picks than the upcoming season.
    • "Should we be looking more towards just the 2027 draft and next year where the Rockets are holding on to those picks from a couple of bad teams...rather than this upcoming season where the Rockets are just trying to run things back?" — Luke Morrow [01:42]

• Seth’s Perspective on “Running it Back”:

  • Seth argues the team’s 2025-26 injury woes masked the roster's real potential. If Fred Van Vliet and Steven Adams are healthy, expectations could be exceeded.
    • "The notion of running it back doesn’t seem as extreme if you remember that...with a healthy Fred Van Vliet and a healthy Stephen Adams, this was expected to be a much different basketball team." — Seth Payne [02:26]
    • He notes the Rockets have the 15th shortest odds to win the championship, and sees reason for optimism, especially with draft assets insulated by owning other teams’ picks.

2. The 2027 Draft: A Silver Lining

[04:19 – 06:37]

• Potential Draft Goldmine:

  • Luke details the odds Houston could have in the 2027 lottery, thanks to the new system and picks from the Nets and Suns:
    • 16% for first overall, 35% for top two, 49% for top three, 62% for top four, and 73% chance for top five.
      • "If you’re a Rockets fan, maybe the excitement comes from trying to get a couple first round picks next year...reinforce the roster since you can’t do a whole lot in free agency." — Luke Morrow [05:17]

• Rockets’ “Almost-Luck”:

  • Seth: Houston’s luck isn’t terrible, but it’s never quite enough to land the ultimate prize.
  • "They haven’t had horrible luck in the lottery...but even their good luck just isn’t quite good enough to get, like, an Antetokounmpo." — Seth Payne [05:27]

• Runner-Up Syndrome:

  • Luke jokes about being “the bridesmaid, never the bride.” Seth reminisces about the Rockets' prolonged status as the league’s second-best team behind the Warriors.
    • "Where’s our banner for that?" — Seth Payne [06:13]

• Picks Could Fizzle if Nets/Suns Excel:

  • Luke raises the possibility of the worst-case: “Knowing the Rockets’ luck, the Nets and Suns end up in the Finals, and then you won’t get the lottery picks after all.” [06:19]

3. Is “Running it Back” a Bad Plan?

[06:37 – 08:05]

• Seth pushes back on the narrative:
  • If Van Vliet is actually healthy, this is more a return to the plan rather than true stasis.
  • "I feel I’m more optimistic than the average Rockets fan...I don’t have to worry about them screwing their chance to get a reset in the lottery—they have other teams’ picks." — Seth Payne [07:28]

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4. Is Kevin Durant Happy in Houston?

[08:05 – 13:55]

• Rumors vs. Reality:
  • Luke brings up rumors KD might want to play with Cade Cunningham, asking, "Do you think Kevin Durant is happy right now in Houston?" [08:05]
• Seth’s Read:
  • Points out KD’s complicated relationship with “happiness” and lack of long-term attachment to any city.
    • "I don’t know if Kevin Durant has ever actually been happy...He doesn’t seem all that tied to a specific place...I don’t think he’s actively angling to get out of Houston, but if a situation arose that seemed more appetizing...loyalty wouldn’t tie him here." — Seth Payne [08:22]
• Luke’s Take:
  • KD likely isn’t ecstatic, but also isn’t miserable or angling to force a trade:
    • "I don’t know if he’s ecstatic...but I don’t think he’s so unhappy that he would be trying to force his way out." — Luke Morrow [11:29]
• Financial Motivation and Team Chemistry:
  • Jokes about his satisfaction financially, and questions if Durant genuinely likes his supporting cast (Shengun, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason).
    • "Let's say, with various disparaging things he may have said on his burner account...is he happy with just his supporting cast right now?" — Seth Payne [11:46, 12:09]
• KD’s Social Media Habits:
  • Fun tangent about whether Durant is still lurking on burner accounts:
    • "Do you think he still has burner accounts that he's active on or do you think he went cold turkey?" — Seth Payne [13:14]

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5. Dennis Schröder Criticizes Rockets as “Worst Organization”

[13:55 – 16:46]

• Schröder’s Quote:
  • Recently called the Rockets the worst organization he’s played for, citing his short 2021-22 stint and lack of structure.
    • "They had no structure. No real GM who, you know, emphasizes what is, like, important for professionals. No...but they're good now." — Dennis Schröder (quoted by hosts) [14:23]
• Contextualizing the Critique:
  • Seth and Luke note it was during the 20-win, tanking stretch under coach Stephen Silas.
  • Points out that Schröder was bouncing between teams at the time, and the Rockets have “figured it out” since then with new leadership and improved roster.
    • "Wasn’t like Schroeder was the most highly desired...He needs to be here for the culture." — Seth Payne [16:35]
  • Luke: Change in coaching and culture makes the Rockets a different organization now.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "If Fred Van Vliet is actually healthy, then they’re not running it back. They’re running back their plan from before the season last year." — Seth Payne [06:44]
• "It's like being the runner up a bunch for...competitive positions...they think highly of me, but it's still not quite good enough to actually get the position each time." — Luke Morrow [05:51]
• "I don’t know if Kevin Durant has ever actually been happy...in any given circumstance that he’s in, it’s never seemed like he’s all that tied to a specific place." — Seth Payne [08:22]
• "They had no structure. No real GM...but they're good now." — Dennis Schröder [14:23]

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Segment Timestamps

• [01:14] – [04:19]: Are the Rockets right to “run it back” or should fans hope for the 2027 draft?
• [04:19] – [06:37]: Draft odds math and a history of almost-luck for Houston.
• [06:37] – [08:05]: "Running it back" vs. actually reverting to original plan.
• [08:05] – [13:55]: Possible KD discontent—what does "happy" even mean for him?
• [13:55] – [16:46]: Former Rocket Dennis Schröder’s stinging critique and context.

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Language and Tone

True to style, Seth and Luke blend hard-nosed analysis with dry humor and relatable frustration. Seth is slightly more optimistic, repeatedly cautioning against fan pessimism, while both keep the conversation rooted in realism and Houston sports context.

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Summary Takeaway

The episode lays out why the 2027 draft could be a franchise-shifting moment for Houston, but underscores that the current iteration—especially if healthier—still deserves attention. Despite a roster without splashy new additions, the Rockets remain layered, youthful, and, for once, controlling their own destiny thanks to a stash of valuable picks. The state of KD’s “happiness” is ambiguous but not dire, and despite old criticisms, the organization appears to be on more stable ground under the new regime.

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Transcript

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[Luke Morrow]

Subject to change A former Rocket player said that the Rockets were the worst organization he's ever played for. Plus, is it really at this point more about next year for the Rockets than this year? Payne and Pendergast I'm Luke Morrow in for Sean alongside Seth Payne. Appreciate you starting your Friday with us. You can always join the conversation 713-572-4610 on the text line or in the YouTube and Twitch chats as well. Seth I've been thinking about this as this offseason has unfolded for the Rockets. We're seemingly not a whole lot's going on for our Houston Rockets as you see all these other teams make the moves and we've been down this road before, but at this point should we be looking more towards just the 2027 draft and next year where the Rockets are holding on to those picks from a couple of bad teams with the Nets and the Suns, as opposed to this upcoming season where the Rockets are trying to just kind of run things back and hope that some healthier players will make the difference?

[Seth Payne]

I think you know what I that it's a good question and I think that's where the kind of the divide between talking about it, analyzing it thinking about realistically what will happen falls away from. All right, let's not forget that pretty much this same assortment of players last year in the preseason was forecast and predicted to be a lot better than what they ended up being. So that the notion of running it back doesn't seem as extreme. If, if you remember that, okay, with a healthy Fred Van Vliet and a healthy Stephen Adams, that this was expected to be a much different basketball team than it ended up being. And I think that if, if they had been able to run all those guys out and have a full season with them and they got the results that they did, then, yeah, you should be really depressed about all of this and not have very high hopes again. Maybe I'm naive and maybe I'm just too. Just searching or yearning for something. I don't. I would like them to be more aggressive. At the same time, I think it's very possible that they end up surpassing expectations. Right now they're, right now they're the, they've got the. Well, I'd written it down is the short of 15th shortest odds to win the championship. So they're, they're considered just a middle of the road. Like, all right, not really thinking, nobody's really thinking about them as a, as a, as a contender at this point, given the current state of affairs, if Fred Van Vliet is healthy and who knows what the situation is with that, I'm still inclined to be like, no, I'm not looking towards the draft yet. I'm thinking it's awesome that you got some picks that aren't yours, so you can be as good as you want to be and it's not going to affect anything that happens in the draft. And that there's a real good chance. There's. I shouldn't say there's a real good chance. There's a very reasonable chance that they exceed expectations, which right now are not all that high either locally or nationally.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, because you said, what, 15th best odds this year to win the championship. So speaking of odds, props to shoddy ad on Reddit who actually put this together. But looking at that 2027 draft and the potential for the Rockets because of those other picks they hold. And so they have the potential with this new lottery system. And I know that was why some Rockets fans were excited about the lottery changes. But the Rockets could have six lottery balls in the lottery next year, and that would give them a 16% chance of winning the lottery, a 35% chance of a top two pick, 49% chance of a top three pick, 62% chance, top four, 73% chance that it is a top five pick in what is what. I mean, it's still way too early, but it could be a pretty decent draft next year. So if you're a Rockets fan, it's like, well, not much is happening this offseason. Maybe the excitement comes from trying to get, you know, a couple first round picks next year and, and sort of reap, not rebuild. I won't say that. Reinforce the roster that way since they can't do seemingly they can't do a whole lot in free agency this season.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. And I mean, this is from a team. It's not like the Rockets have had horrible luck in the lottery or anything with this. It's just they haven't accepted their. Except that they're even their good luck just isn't quite good enough at times to get like an antenna Kumpo, for instance. That's the. It's not horrible luck, but it's almost worse that it's not horrible luck that they've had pretty damn good luck. It's just. Just not quite good enough in the key and specific moments you need it to be.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, it's like being the runner up a bunch for like competitive positions and it's like, well, I'm very close, they think highly of me, but it's still not quite good enough to actually get the position each time. Yeah, you're the bridesmaid, never the bride, so to speak.

[Seth Payne]

Hey. The Rockets were basically the second best team in basketball for a long time when it just happened to be that the warriors were the best team.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, that too.

[Seth Payne]

Where's our banner for that?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

You know, or do it. When do we. When do we get our replica rings for that?

[Luke Morrow]

I like the top comment on this Reddit thread is saying knowing the Rockets, Lux. Knowing the Rockets luck will be nets in the Suns in the NBA Finals this year. And so then those picks will, you know, then you won't get the lottery picks after all because those two teams will surprisingly, knowing the Rockets luck, surprisingly be really good. And you can't count on those picks.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. So I don't. It's, it's, it's kind of cool because I don't. You can have your cake and eat it too. And that. All right. I think running it back, as depressing as it might feel at any given time, when you say that they're not actually running it back, you know, like, that's a, that's a one little Objection. I have to people just so casually saying, well, the Rockets are running it back. If Fred Van Vliet is actually healthy, then they're not running it back. You know, they're. They're running back their plan from before the season last year. But it's not like you should just expect that that's going to be the exact same team with the guys awkwardly trying to fit into roles they're not suited for, as long as you actually have a viable point guard on the team. So that part of it is I'm, I'm still. I feel like I'm a little bit more optimistic than the average Rockets fan on that side of things. But. But at the same time, I don't also have to. I don't have to worry about it. I don't have to worry about, like, oh, well, if they have a, you know, if they end up 500 again, then they screwed their chance to, to get a reset in the lottery. They have that because they already have a chance of having a good pick simply because they've. They've got so many other teams picks.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, that's fair on the whole running it back thing. I mean, they are running it back in the sense or why they were quote, unquote, running it back is because they expect it to be different and better this year with guys actually healthy and available throughout the season like Stephen Adams and, and Fred Van Vliet.

[Seth Payne]

They're running it back to what, August of 2025, whenever it was that Fred Van Vliet got injured.

[Luke Morrow]

True. Do you think Kevin Durant is. I think I heard Ron ask about this like a week ago. Do you think Kevin Durant is happy right now in Houston with, you know, we get these rumors he wants to go play with Kate Cunningham. Who knows. They're just rumors. But do you think he's happy right now here in Houston with the way things are going?

[Seth Payne]

I know that's a. It's a really good question. Whenever he has a question about happiness, you know, obviously happiness is very subjective and can mean different things to different people. I would say a. I don't know if Kevin Durant has ever actually been happy. You know, he, like, I don't think he's unhappy, but just in any given circumstance that he's in, it's never seemed like he's all that tied to a specific place. I would have if you had asked me whether he was happy in San Antonio, really seemed like he was up until the end. So going all the way back, I don't. Or excuse me, Oklahoma City. God, not San Antonio. Oklahoma City. That. I think that. I don't think he. I would guess he's not overly disgruntled. Is that happiness? Is that his version of happiness? It could be. I don't. I don't think he's actively angling to try to get out of Houston, but I think he also might. If a situation arose that seemed more appetizing, then I don't think he would. It's not like loyalty would tie him to Houston.

[Luke Morrow]

Right? Right. Yeah.

[Charles Barkley]

It's Charles Barkley here with Wayfair, and let me tell you, game day is serious business at my house. If I'm grilling, chilling and watching hoops, my outdoor setup better be ready to play. That's where Wayfair wins. From patio seating and umbrellas to grills and grill accessories, Wayfair's got it all and it shows up fast. I'm talking fast and easy delivery. So level up your grill game and your outdoor chill game and head to Wayfarer.com to get your outdoor space ready for the season.

[Commercial Narrator]

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[Lowe's Advertiser]

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[Commercial Narrator]

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[Luke Morrow]

I think it's fair. I don't know if he's, like, ecstatic or over the moon with the way things have gone or are going. But, yeah, like, to your point, I also don't think he's so unhappy that he would be trying to force his way out. It's not like it's some terrible scenario here.

[Seth Payne]

I would say, financially, I'm guessing he's happy.

[Luke Morrow]

Yep.

[Seth Payne]

In terms of, like, okay, running it back. If we're doing hashtag, run it back to August 2025. I felt like he was happy in that scenario and that he. He felt like they were probably going to have a good season this past year, and then everything just went awry. So I would say as long as he's cool with Fred Van Vliet, and Fred Van Vliet actually is healthier than however he described it the last time. I guess the other part, though, would be, let's say, with various disparaging things that he may have said on his Burner account about teammates and their intelligence level, is he. Is he happy with just his supporting cast right now? Right. Like, do you think he's happy with Shangun, with Amin Thompson, with. With all of those guys? With Tari Eason?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, that's my concern. Ah, that's where. That's where I come in on wonder. I'm pondering the happiness. But with that said, like, this is the same team that, that he signed up for, so to speak, maybe he wouldn't be as happy now after actually playing a full season and realizing, like, oh, this isn't as good of a group as I thought it was going to be. But this is kind of what you signed on to and you wanted to come to Houston, is you knew who was here, these are the players. Nothing's really changed there. And you obviously must have thought it was good enough to actually be able to compete. Otherwise, I don't think Durant would have wasted his time coming here. So, you know, I don't know how. How different it should be a year later when this is sort of the team you signed up with.

[Seth Payne]

Do you think, do you think he still has Burner accounts that he's active on, or do you think cold turkey on that? You think so?

[Luke Morrow]

I think so. He hasn't posted on his main Twitter account, I think, since April, which is so odd. It's been almost three months, I think, since his last tweet. But I do think part of that is because he's probably living in all these burner accounts and that's how he's getting his fix of like responding on Twitter to everybody.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, I haven't seen anything and I haven't like been on Reddit or anything to find out what the scuttlebutt is, but is I. I would assume people are actively out there trying to identify his burner accounts and I haven't. But I haven't seen anything reported about sketchy activity on his. Yeah, for whatever it's worth, maybe he's doing a much better job and he's being more careful about it.

[Luke Morrow]

Right. Yeah. Real quick, I do want to pay off this tease. I said there was a former Rocket who said it's the worst organization he's ever played for. This is Dennis Schroeder who played for I think 11 teams in the NBA, spent half a season with the Rockets. Here's what he had to say. What team did you have the worst experience with?

[Lowe's Advertiser]

Houston.

[Seth Payne]

I was with Houston for two months. So that's why you don't like us. No, I don't have no bad blood,

[Charles Barkley]

but was really, it was really tough.

[Luke Morrow]

What was.

[Seth Payne]

What was the problem there?

[Charles Barkley]

They had no structure.

[Seth Payne]

No real GM who, you know, like emphasizes what is like important professionals. No, but they good now. Yeah, he threw that in there. They're good now. So that was the 2122 season, right?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. When they won 20 games.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. I have a hard time getting offended by that just because. Other than just the no GM part because there was one. Who was it? Red. Let's see. Red94. Red94 had posted this old quote from Sham Sharanya where he said, quote the looming presence of general manager Rafael Stone was also one the head coach had to manage. Talking about Silas, Stone interrupted a Silas led session to give his input on and showed defensive position. Silas eventually had to inform Stone that he could no longer halt the coaches practice sessions. So it's. I don't know whether like when Schroder's situation was with however Raphael Stone was operating at the time or not. I think it was just. Yeah, there were a lot of things that were a mismatch and just needed to rectify it and it just wasn't going to work out with Silas at that point. But Schroeder was also like he was. How many teams did he play for that year? Played for three teams that. That season. Oh no. Just two teams that season with Boston and Houston.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, I think that's the thing. Like, like I, that might have been true at the time, which was also what, four years ago. But I think part of that has to do with the fact that Silas was the head coach and they were a 20 win team. They were tanking and going through this rebuild. It is different now with, with Udoka and having success in different players on the roster. A lot of people used it online as an indictment on stone, but I think it's just, it's with a different head coach, different players. I do think it's, it is a different organization.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. And I would say two things. Like, is with the source, like at the end there he says, hey, they're good now. They figured it out. They've got it together. Yeah, cool. It was, it wasn't good back then. It really, really wasn't. And it was also as Schroeder was at the beginning of a stretch where he would play for nine different teams from, from 2021 until now. So like wasn't like Schroeder was the most highly desired and you know, guy to you just got to have him. You got to keep him in your room for the culture. He needs to be here for the culture.

[Charles Barkley]

Right?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. And he also went from the Celtics who were, you know, one of the top teams in the league, to the 20 win Rockets. So I get just naturally that might be a disappointment for him. Coming up, we got to get you the headlines for this Friday, including I continue to think that Major League Baseball does a poor job marketing its sport. And there's another example this weekend. We'll get to that next Payne and Pendergast.

[Lowe's Advertiser]

Messi fans, Lowe's Messi halftime event hits July 19th. That's coming up fast. So now's a really good time to become a Mylo's Rewards or my Lo's Pro Rewards member. Join for free and get access to exclusive messy moments and epic surprises. Let's just say halftime's looking different this year. Make sure to follow Lowe's on TikTok and tune in to the Lowe's Messy halftime event on July 19. Members get more at Lowe's loyalty programs subject to terms and conditions. Visit lowe's.com terms for details. Subject to change.

[Commercial Narrator]

It's always amazing to see how quickly your child grows. And I'm not just talking about their height. From those early babbles to full on storytelling. Getting to watch how their ideas, creativity and confidence develop over the years is honestly pretty incredible. Sometimes they surprise you with what they come up with. And LEGO bricks can be right there with them through all of those stages. It's not just a toy, it's a full creative building journey that keeps evolving as they do. Lego sets play starts as early as one and a half with Lego Duplo, the bigger bricks designed for little hands that are just starting to explore and build. Then around age 4, kids transition to the smaller LEGO bricks and suddenly you're watching real structures take shape, real ideas form and their imagination really take off. They begin with simple stacking, but over time they grow into full on creators, building worlds, stories and things you never would have expected. That's the kind of magic of LEGO bricks. You're not buying a phase, you're starting a journey. Learn more and start building today with LEGO bricks.

[Seth Payne]

Would you look at that.

[Lowe's Advertiser]

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[Luke Morrow]

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[Luke Morrow]

So anyways, this has been a refreshing break.

[Seth Payne]

Brought to you by Snapple.

[Luke Morrow]

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