How Does CJ Stroud Stack Up Against the Top 10 QBs in the NFL?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Payne & Pendergast

Episode: How Does CJ Stroud Stack Up Against the Top 10 QBs in the NFL?
Date: July 14, 2026
Hosts: Seth Payne & Chris Partee (filling in for Sean Pendergast)
Producer: Ben Gary

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into how Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud measures up against the current top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL, as determined by Jeremy Fowler’s annual ESPN poll of 70 coaches, execs, and scouts. Seth and Chris break down each quarterback on the list, discuss the criteria for elite QB play, and debate where Stroud stands after his first two seasons in the NFL. They weigh accomplishments, supporting casts, upside, and the sometimes-fleeting public perception that influences league rankings.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Setting the Stage: The Annual QB Ranking List

• [01:42] The ESPN ranking is viewed as more substantial and meaningful than the NFL Top 100, as it's voted on by 70 league insiders, not just players (Seth).
• [02:35] "I like that when the NFL players vote, they're voting on anybody and everybody...I like it when they rank it more on just...there's only so many starting quarterbacks. It gives you a better picture of how they feel about things." (Seth Payne)

Where is C.J. Stroud on the List?

• [03:14] Stroud lands in the last tier, grouped with Bo Nix and Mac Jones, suggesting he’s seen as a “below average NFL starting quarterback" (Seth).
• [03:56] "At the very least, you can say he's in the group of 18, 19, and 20...he is, by this standard, a below average NFL starting quarterback." (Seth)

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Breaking Down the Top 10 Quarterbacks

10. Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears)

• [04:27] Seth notes Williams’ improvement and strong supporting cast but calls his ranking a product of “recency bias”.
• Quote [05:11]: "He's still...way more erratic than CJ is. I wouldn't put him above CJ...I also don't think CJ belongs in the top 10 right now." (Seth)
• Both agree it's “a little premature to put Caleb Williams in the top 10” (Chris).

9. Jared Goff (Detroit Lions)

• [05:40] Goff’s body of work and consistency outpace CJ’s to date.
• [05:47] Seth concedes Goff “is just steadily had better regular seasons than CJ’s had” and is comfortable with Goff being ranked higher for now.
• [05:59] The sense is Stroud’s ceiling is higher, but “he's also like...Jared Goff has just accomplished more.”

8. Drake May (New England Patriots)

• [06:11] Both highlight May’s development and the Patriots’ weak schedule, but his production can't be denied.
• Quote [07:01]: "Drake May still had...issues with his offensive line. His left tackle is an absolute disgrace late in the year and in the playoffs.” (Seth)
• Seth is “cool with Drake May being above [Stroud] right now.”

7. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

• [07:31] Seth says Herbert is a “weird space” for him: sometimes overrated, sometimes underrated.
• [08:09] Herbert has played in offenses that limited him, and like Stroud has struggled to make playoff noise.
• Quote [08:39]: "He's just accomplished more than CJ has to this point." (Seth)
• Playoff shortcomings noted: “Those playoff performances, man, they're hard to forget.” (Chris)

6. Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)

• [09:00] Dak’s consistency is the main factor; his supporting cast is mentioned as a big help.
• Quote [09:10]: "He’s had down years...but, like, based on the way he played last year, now..." (Seth)
• [09:22] CJ was once 7th on this same list after his rookie year; it’s not permanent.

5. Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)

• [10:56] Two-time MVP and dynamic skillset put him well above Stroud for now.
• Quote [11:16]: “Lamar Jackson’s a two-time MVP. Arguably could have been the three-time MVP pretty easily...He’s just accomplished so much.” (Seth)
• Concerns about health and evolving style but “100% Lamar Jackson's fine” for top 5.

4. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)

• [12:27] Burrow’s reputation remains strong despite a rough previous season and Bengals missing playoffs.
• Quote [13:58]: "An NFL coordinator said this about Burrow: 'Burrow doesn't play in a system. He is the system. He's the whole thing.' And I feel like that's cool and all, but I don't know if that's...the ideal..." (Seth)
• Discussion about quarterbacks doing “system” work vs. relying on their talent (comparing to Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning).

3. Matt Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)

• [14:58] Stafford remains elite thanks to “perfect situation”: great play-caller, top weapons, smart management.
• Quote [15:07]: "They've done a really good job of surrounding him...In terms of—does he have a brilliant play-caller? Yes. Does he have awesome wide receivers? Yes. Do they have a really good running back? Yes." (Seth)

2. Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)

• [15:37] Mahomes’ recent play hasn't been “Peak Mahomes,” yet results keep him among the very top.
• [16:12] "At what point does it become—oh, wow, it's been a few years since Pat Mahomes has looked electrifying..." (Seth)
• Chris and Seth agree that past accomplishments still (rightfully) weigh heavily.

1. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)

• Brief acknowledgement; earlier conversation alluded to Allen’s continued dominance and all-around skills; no one disputes his spot at the top right now.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Stroud’s Low Ranking:
  • "By this standard, he's a below average NFL starting quarterback." (Seth, [03:56])
• On Caleb Williams:
  • "He's still...way more erratic than CJ is. I wouldn't put him above CJ..." (Seth, [05:11])
• On Herbert’s Playoff Woes:
  • "Those playoff performances, man, they're hard to forget. They're hard to unsee when it comes to Herbert." (Chris, [08:48])
• On Burrow as a System:
  • "Burrow doesn't play in a system. He is the system. He's the whole thing." (NFL coordinator quoted by Seth, [13:58])
• On Jackson’s MVP Credentials:
  • “Lamar Jackson’s a two-time MVP. Arguably could have been a three-time MVP pretty easily.” (Seth, [11:16])
• On Dak & Shifting Rankings:
  • “It's not like he can't rise back up on it. It's not like a permanent appraisal of who they are as a quarterback.” (Seth, [09:22])

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Takeaways: Where Does CJ Stroud Stand?

• Current Perception: Despite flashes of brilliance and a solid rookie playoff run, CJ Stroud is viewed by league insiders as a bottom-tier starting quarterback coming into 2026.
• Factors Hurting Stroud:
  • Inconsistent supporting cast (compared to peers)
  • Less long-term production than others
  • “Recency bias” favoring new faces with hype (e.g., Caleb Williams, Drake May)
• Hosts’ Outlook: Both Seth and Chris agree Stroud could climb the rankings with better seasons, but for now, the accumulation of career achievements and playoff results weigh heavily in these lists.

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:42] The ESPN Top 10 QB poll explained
• [03:14] Where CJ Stroud ranks and the “last tier” breakdown
• [04:27–15:31] Rundown and analysis of each top 10 quarterback (Caleb Williams through Matt Stafford)
• [15:37] Mahomes, Allen, and league superstar status
• [16:12] Discussion of how long past performance should “insulate” top-tier QBs

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Overall Tone & Style

The episode mixes friendly banter and off-the-cuff analysis with sharp, knowledgeable takes rooted in real NFL experience. Seth brings insider player perspective, challenging assumptions and highlighting the nuance in quarterback evaluation, while Chris capably steers the conversation and asks pointed follow-ups.

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For Houston fans and broader NFL followers alike, this is a transparent look at where C.J. Stroud currently stands and what it’ll take for him to break into the game’s elite class.

Transcript

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[Chris Partee]

Seth Payne, along with me, Chris Partee in first, Sean Pendergast this morning. And we've got our amazing producer, Ben Gary, keeping me on track this morning. Appreciate you, my man.

[Seth Payne]

All right, Good job, Ben.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah, Ben, Ben. Ben's keeping me on track here. So where do NFL coaches and executives rank CJ Stroud among the best and worst in the league? Yes, we've got another list for you here, Seth.

[Seth Payne]

This is, this one. This one's intriguing though, because I like this one. I like this one more than the NFL top 100 because like players ranking other players, where they list their top 20 players and then somehow that gets turned into a 100 person list that feels a little bit dicier. The ESPN one that Jeremy Fowler does every year is a specific group of executive executives, coaches and scouts who rank the top quarterbacks and they rank each of the, the top position groups, but it feels a little bit more substantive and you get some anonymous quotes. But they have, they have, they have 70 voters who submit these ballots.

[Chris Partee]

Oh, wow. Yeah, that's a, that's a lot of people voting there.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, that's a lot of people voting there, and it's more specified. You know, like, it's. I like that when the NFL players vote, they're voting on anybody and everybody. So it's like, there's no. There's no restrictions on, you know, number of this position or like that. So I. I like it when they rank it more on just. Okay, there's only so many starting quarterbacks. It gives you a better. Exactly. A better picture of how they feel about things.

[Chris Partee]

All right, so this is. This is a top 10 here. And I don't think anyone expects CJ Stroud to be in this top 10, but it feels like he's finishing so far away from even a mention of top 10.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Chris Partee]

On this list.

[Seth Payne]

No, no. And Jeremy Fowler, like, he laid out how the voting went, and basically it just puts. It puts Stroud at the very bottom of. Is it 18, guys? 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20. So, yeah, Stroud was basically. Or like, he puts him in the last. The last group. It's Bo Nicks and Mac Jones and C.J. stroud in the last list. So Mac Jones, the way you listed him out, it looks like Mac Jones actually finished a little bit higher. But at the very least, you can say he's in the group of 18, 19, and 20, which would mean that he is. By this. By this standard, he's a below average NFL starting quarterback.

[Chris Partee]

That's exactly what it sounds like. Now, should we go through this top 10 here and kind of. Kind of reel off? Yes or what?

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, it was an interesting one. And. Okay, so what do you want to do? You want to do, like. Okay, yeah, CJ's definitely. You definitely can't rank CJ above this guy yet.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah, let's do it that way.

[Seth Payne]

Now you want to do it?

[Chris Partee]

Yeah, let's do it that way. All right, so I'm gonna. And I'm gonna go in reverse order, so ten down to one. Okay, I'm gonna go that way. So number ten is Caleb Williams.

[Seth Payne]

I don't feel about that. How you feel about that based on trajectory. And, you know, the biggest thing I'd say about Caleb Williams is that he. He got better as the season went along last year.

[Chris Partee]

He did.

[Seth Payne]

But if anything, I think, man, if your argument in support of CJ is that he hasn't had the same coordinator or the same support around him as some other guys have had, like, they gave Caleb Williams everything that you would want CJ to have, which was, man, experienced offensive head coach. Slash coordinator that really, like Ben Johnson really knows what he's doing. And they stocked, they stocked the offensive line aggressively last year. And then lo and behold, you see a better version of Caleb Williams. But I would probably put him. I like, this feels like a little bit of recency bias with him. He's still like, he's way more erratic than CJ is. And yeah, I wouldn't put him above CJ on this, but I think that more like. But I also don't think CJ belongs in the top 10 right now.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

So I think that it's, it's, it's. It's a little premature to put Caleb Williams in the top 10.

[Chris Partee]

Number nine, Jared Goff, Detroit Lions.

[Seth Payne]

Oh, boy. Yeah. Just based on, based on body of work and consistency, I think the ceiling for CJ is still higher theoretically for then, then Jared Goff. But I'm, I'm totally cool with him being above CJ right now.

[Chris Partee]

Now, is that because CJ's still so young that the season ceiling is higher

[Seth Payne]

or still so young? But he's also like, yeah, Jared Goff is just accomplished more. You know, he's just steadily had better regular seasons than CJ's had.

[Chris Partee]

I got you. Number eight, Drake May, Patriots.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, it's hard to argue against this one, except that Drake May, Jake May, in a weird way, like I keep reminding myself, he's not a rookie quarterback, but it was the first year where he felt like an actual NFL quarterback. But again, going back to. All right, okay, they. They gave him an offensive coordinator who's worked with multiple young quarterbacks. And the thing about Drake May is, despite the playoff performance and despite the fact that they, they faced an absurdly easy schedule last year, it was one of the. The by dvoa, it was one of the easiest schedules of all time in the NFL. Like, I can't argue against the, the actual production. So if you're stacking up apples to apples and like, let's not think too hard about what this guy had versus what this guy did. Drake May still had. He had issues with his offensive line. His tackles were just an absolute. His left tackle is an absolute disgrace late in the year and in the playoffs. Like, K's on Booty, all of a sudden we're going to act like k' Sean Booty was the guy. Like anybody was talking about K Sean Booty like he was going to have the year that he did that. You know, CJ already had a crack at having Stefan Diggs on his team and didn't do as much with him. So, yeah, I'm cool with Drake May being above him right now.

[Chris Partee]

Number seven.

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[Chris Partee]

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[Seth Payne]

Justin Herbert. Yeah, yeah, Justin. Or. Okay, if you look at Justin Herbert. Seventh. But then if you look at guys I think, like, the guy that didn't make the top 10, the two guys that really, like, scratch your head a little bit, I think are especially compared to Justin Herbert is Brock Purdy and Jordan Love. Compared to Justin Herbert. I don't know. I, like, I. I feel like Justin Herbert. Justin Herbert's in a weird space in my brain where I want to defend him sometimes, but not too much. Like, I feel like Justin Herbert gets underrated at times because the last couple years he's been playing in offense where they almost try to limit him.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

And it feels like they're protecting Justin Herbert from himself. But I also don't want to say that he's trash or anything, but I also don't. I don't think he's as, as. As awesome as so many people seem to be convinced that he is. And he just like C.J. like, he's never done anything good in the playoffs where at least CJ Strouds had some good moments in the playoffs. But I like, again, I'll go back to. Based on the sum total of what he's done in the NFL and like, the.

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[Seth Payne]

His bad years all weighed in there, too. Yeah. He's just accomplished more than CJ has to this point.

[Chris Partee]

Yes, you can say that he has accomplished more than cj, but those playoff performances, man, they're hard to forget.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Chris Partee]

They're hard to unsee.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Chris Partee]

When it comes to Herbert. All right, number six up north, Dak. Dak Prescott.

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Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

Like, yeah, I can't argue against this one. I mean, we can say whatever we want about the Cowboys in the playoffs and everything else. Like, yeah, Dak Prescott just consistently churns out impressive performances.

[Chris Partee]

He does.

[Seth Payne]

He said, look, he's had down years, but of course. No, but, like, based on the way he played last year, now he's also got the benefit of having two stud. Stud. Stud wide. Yeah, he does that. CJ doesn't have. But I'm like, I'm not. Like, these things shift and change. CJ2, after his rookie year, going into 2024, CJ was seventh on this list. Yeah. So it's not like he can't rise back up on it. It's not like a permanent. It's not a permanent appraisal of who they are as A quarterback?

[Chris Partee]

No, definitely not.

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[Chris Partee]

Number five, Lamar Jackson.

[Seth Payne]

Lamar Jackson is the fifth best quarterback on this list. Yeah, like, yeah, there's no way in hell I'm putting him, putting C.J. above Lamar Jackson. And I like people can bring up playoff record all they want. That's great, that's cool. But no, like he's a two time mvp.

[Chris Partee]

Come on.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, he's a two time mvp.

[Chris Partee]

Come on.

[Seth Payne]

Arguably could have been the three time MVP pretty easily. And yeah, like he's just, no, he's just accomplished so much. I think the big question with Lamar Jackson moving forward is, you know, last year he had, at any given time he was dealing with one of four different injuries. And the thing with him is it's like it's not the running ability that makes him special anymore. I mean it's still a big part of his game. But his pocket mobility, like his, his strength and ability in the pocket, his pocket movement is really, really good. And I think that's what affected him more than anything last year was it's like it's some of those, it's not the scrambles, it's not the running on designed runs or anything that make for a lot of his really great throws. It's when he's able to reposition himself in the pocket, like shake off a tackle. Like he's ridiculously strong when he's healthy. So a lot of his best throws come after he evades a sack just simply by breaking a tackle and stepping up two feet and then making the throw. That's what I think. Fell by the wayside a little bit last year, but as long as he's healthy. Yeah, 100%. Lamar Jackson's fine.

[Chris Partee]

Number four, Joe Burrow.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, Joe Burrow is starting to get a little tiresome for a guy really. Well, no, no, no. For just for. I, you know what it is? It's the Bengals. I'm tired of the, like I'm tired of the Bengals not even making the playoffs.

[Chris Partee]

That's true.

[Seth Payne]

And then with such a good quarterback. Yeah. Yet at the same time you watch him and you see what he's doing and like clearly and obviously he's an awesome quarterback. I think the one thing that's going to be interesting this year is that they're going to there. It's been kind of a multi year process of teaching him to be more of like a, for lack of a better term, a system quarterback. You know, be able to lean on the run game, be able to lean on your tight ends, do some things like do some of the more boring stuff instead of relying on heroics for, for, for Joe Burrow. Because there are times where like they've like it hasn't been great in the fourth quarter and there's only so much that QB heroics can do consistently without having an actual well structured offense around him. So for him, it's more like I feel like in some ways he's still operating like a young quarterback who's got these ethereal physical skills. He's got to be more of a complete quarterback if they want to have a, if they want to have an offense that can deliver in clutch moments.

[Chris Partee]

Well, didn't the Bengals go out and spend a lot of money defensively?

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, yeah, they've got, they've got six or seven brand new starters on defense.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah. So I mean things could turn around. You know, as long as I always feel like as long as he's healthy, if they can get something from that defense. Yeah, no, they're going to be in the mix.

[Seth Payne]

An NFL coordinator said this about Burrow. Quote, Burrow doesn't play in a system. He is the system. He's the whole thing. And I feel like that's, that's, that's cool and all, but I don't I don't know if that's all. If that's honestly like the ideal that you want. You know who that was a little bit like Aaron Rodgers. You know, like Aaron. What's the system with Aaron? Rod. But at least Peyton. Peyton was running his system to perfection.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah. Oh, yeah.

[Seth Payne]

Like where? With, like, with it. So at a certain point with Aaron Rodgers, when he was at his physical prime, like, okay, what system is Aaron Rodgers running? Well, he's kind of sort of running Mike McCarthy system, except that he's checking into a whole bunch of plays that Mike McCarthy didn't call a bunch of the time. And it was when he could pull off the circus throws and everything. It worked out. But when you don't have those same physical skills anymore, it tends not to age all that well.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah. I mean, Aaron Rodgers, he tended to do his own thing.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Chris Partee]

When he wanted to. All right, number three, Matt Stafford.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. I don't know if, like the argument, Matt Stafford at this point would just have to be that at some point he's going to get old and decide to quit playing football.

[Chris Partee]

At some point.

[Seth Payne]

They've done a really good job of surrounding him with good. Like, he's got. He's in a perfect situation in terms of. Okay, does he have a brilliant play caller? Yes.

[Chris Partee]

Yes.

[Seth Payne]

Does he have awesome wide receivers? Yes. Do they have a. Do they have a really good running back? Yes. And, like, there's just everything around him is. Is perfectly suited to just get the absolute best out of them.

[Chris Partee]

All right, real quick before we get out of here, number. Number two is Patrick Mahomes. Number one, Josh Allen. We talked about them a little earlier.

[Seth Payne]

I think, like, I would say with Patrick Mahomes at some point, I told you earlier, I think we're kind of almost. Patrick Mahomes is in a much more glorified situation, but a similar situation to CJ Stroud where like, okay, the results on the field have been a lot better for Patrick Mahomes over the last couple years. And yet he hasn't played, like, Peak Pac Pat Mahomes. But people have a lot of excuses for him. Like, at how. At what point does it become. Oh, wow, it's been a few years since Pat Mahomes has looked electrifying and looked like one of the definitely, like, definitively top quarterbacks in the league.

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[Seth Payne]

Like, at some point you got to just start calling things for what they are and that the results aren't nearly as impressive as some of these other guys. But, like, I don't know how you detach that from the fact that he has done all those things that he's done.

[Chris Partee]

Yeah. And he definitely does continue to get the the benefit of the doubt. Really.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Chris Partee]

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