How GOOD Will the Texans Run Game Actually be This Year?

Summary

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Payne & Pendergast (July 7, 2026)

Episode Theme:
How GOOD Will the Texans Run Game Actually be This Year?

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the prospects of the Houston Texans’ running game for the upcoming NFL season. With questions swirling around new acquisition David Montgomery, emerging talents like Woody Marks, and lingering concerns about depth and durability, Seth Payne and guest host Luke Morrow (in for Sean Pendergast) leverage fresh offseason rankings and data to project the Texans’ rushing outlook. The hosts bring their characteristic sharp analysis and humor, balancing fan expectations with candid assessments.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Dissecting ESPN’s Top Running Backs List

• ESPN’s annual top RB rankings (as voted by execs, coaches, and scouts) are out. David Montgomery is not only absent from the top 10 but is also missing from the “honorable mention” and “receiving votes” pools—meaning he's outside the top 20.
  • Seth: “I do know David Montgomery is not in the top 20. And maybe that shouldn't be a surprise.” (02:50)
  • Luke: “If everybody... I could totally 100% see nobody ranking David Montgomery in the top 10. Yet at the same time that they were asked to rank the top 20, he might squeeze in there with a few of these guys.” (02:57 - 03:24)

2. Montgomery’s Value Not Measured by Stardom

• Both hosts agree: The Texans aren’t looking for Montgomery to be a superstar, just reliable and competent—especially short-yardage and red zone situations.
  • Luke: “What people really want to see is just a credible rushing attack, not an incredible rushing attack. Just can you be a functioning rushing attack?” (04:34)
  • Seth: “What I want out of David Montgomery more than anything is just that they can convert in these short yardage situations or on first down, that they're gaining 4 yards instead of gaining 2 yards...he needs to be for this team is somebody that just steadily grinds out yardage, and then especially in short yardage situations and in the red zone, can give you more of a hammer than what you had last year.” (04:40 – 05:44)

3. Montgomery’s Red Zone Strength

• Seth (Notable Moment):
  “One of my favorite stats about David Montgomery is in C.J. Stroud's career, Montgomery has more red zone touchdowns than all Texan running backs during that time do combined.” (06:05)

• Montgomery’s 8 rushing TDs last year (tied for 12th in the NFL) get highlighted, even if his total yards (716, 30th in NFL) aren’t flashy.

4. Success Rate & Offensive Line Impact

• Dive into advanced stats: Montgomery’s and Jameer Gibbs’ “success rate” (percentage of runs that put the offense in a favorable position for the next down) dropped in 2025; both blame Detroit’s injury-wrecked offensive line, not a decline in RB talent.

  • Luke: “Montgomery and Gibbs both took a big step backwards last year in terms of their success rate. That speaks to the issues that they're having on the offensive line with the Lions last year...the fact that Montgomery's success rate went down by about the same amount makes me feel better...” (06:44 – 07:34)

  • Seth: “That's interesting. I would not guess they were both down that low…” (07:37)

  • Stat Drop:

    • 2024: Montgomery ~55% success rate
    • 2025: Montgomery 46.2%, Gibbs 46.5%

5. Carry Share Projections: Montgomery vs. Woody Marks

• Workload Expectations:
  • Luke: “I think that he's probably initially going to get two thirds of the carries...some of that depends on what they're doing on third downs...you're more likely to see Woody Marks.” (10:26)
  • Woody Marks’ durability is a concern; hope is he’s featured as a receiver and spelling Montgomery, not as a backfield bell-cow.

6. Durability & Depth Concerns

• Older RBs often face injury risk; the hosts debate whether Montgomery having lighter workloads in recent years helps or hurts.
  • Seth: “Montgomery hasn't been like that lead back in a couple of years. Do you think that helps or hurts?...is he not your normal 29 year old or could that almost lead to more wear down as the season goes along if he's getting more carries than he's used to?” (11:21)
  • Luke: “He's never been a huge heavy workload guy, but he's down to like he only had 158 carries last year...anytime you're a 29 year old running back...it's fair to worry about everything in terms of wear and tear on the body.” (11:53)

7. RB Room vs. Past Years

• Cody Stoots’ Take: This might be the Texans’ best RB group in a while.
  • Seth’s skepticism: “I don't know if you can say that...I feel good about David Montgomery and Woody Marks, but I don't think either of those guys is necessarily a Joe Mixon in his first year with the Texans...I still have a lot of concerns about who the third running back is going to be...I'm not 100% slam dunk confident in any of the backups.” (12:17 – 13:14)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Montgomery’s Role and Expectations

• Luke: “What people really want to see is just a credible rushing attack, not an incredible rushing attack.” (04:34)

Red Zone Impact

• Seth: “Montgomery has more red zone touchdowns than all Texan running backs during that time do combined.” (06:05)

Success Rate and Context

• Luke: “The fact that Montgomery's success rate went down by about the same amount [as Jameer Gibbs] makes me feel better about some of Montgomery's drop off.” (07:34)

Workload & Age

• Seth: “Montgomery hasn't been like that lead back in a couple of years. Do you think that helps or hurts?” (11:21)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:15] — Breaking down the ESPN running back rankings and the Texans’ RB room.
• [04:34] — What fans should reasonably expect from the rushing attack.
• [05:51] — Red zone and short-yardage strengths of Montgomery vs. past Texans backs.
• [06:44] — Advanced stats: success rate, and offensive line impact.
• [10:11] — How carries might be split between Montgomery and Woody Marks.
• [11:21] — Does having less recent workload help or hurt Montgomery as he ages?
• [12:17] — Comparing this year’s RB group to Texans’ recent history.

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Final Thoughts

• The Texans aren’t aiming to have a top-tier, star-driven running game; they want consistent, competent production.
• David Montgomery, despite not being in the league’s top 20 by reputation, is expected to offer vital reliability—especially in short yardage and red zone scenarios.
• Offensive line quality is a major variable in how effective Montgomery and the running game can be.
• Depth and durability behind Montgomery and Woody Marks remain concerns as camp approaches.

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This episode offers insightful, realistic expectations for the 2026 Texans’ ground game—tempering hope with experience and data, all with the easygoing banter Payne & Pendergast are known for.

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Transcript

[Luke Morrow]

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[Seth]

well did the Texans actually address the running back situation? It's Payne and Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow, in for Sean alongside Seth. Payne can always get to us on the YouTube and Twitch chats or join the conversation in the text line. 713-572-4610 Seth it's list time of the year as we get ready for training camp and there's not much else going on in the NFL. Everyone loves to put out their different lists and rankings of different position groups and teams and whatnot. Anything you could think of. And admittedly I like to take the bait, especially this one. I do like ESPN does this every year where they ask executives, coaches, scouts to rank. They only do the top 10 but they always add the receiving votes section as well and so you get a ranking of the top at each position group and they've started. I think this running backs list is the first one and then they'll go through all the different position groups here for the next week or so. And I do, I do always like looking at this each year. But anyways they just put out the running backs list here in the last 24 hours. So I was looking at it and I didn't expect David Montgomery to be in the top 10. Bijan Robinson's number one for those interested. Actually Jameer Gibbs, the other four, you know, the other Lions running back from a year ago is number two. But then you scroll down and you get to honorable mention. Not there. Okay. You get to also receiving votes. Oh, not there. And there's 20 different running backs on this list that receives some sort of votes from executives, coaches, scouts in the league.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah.

[Seth]

So I don't know where he would rank exactly, but I do know David Montgomery is not in the top 20. And maybe that shouldn't be a surprise.

[Luke Morrow]

I think, I guess, you know what I would say is that I, since they're asked to rank the top 10 that now did. Were they asked to rank the top 20 or were they asked to rank the top 10? They were asked to rank the top 10. So if everybody I could see, I could totally 100% see nobody ranking David Montgomery in the top 10. Yet at the same time that they were asked to rank the top 20, he, he might squeeze in there with a few of these guys. But like when they're looking at, you know, some of the names that made it for the top 10 people, like somebody put Ashton Genty where I think a lot of people look at Ashton Genti as a guy. That boy was in a really bad circumstance. If he had been on a good team, his, some of his like, he actually would have been a much better performing player. So that's, that's my like rose colored glasses way of looking at that.

[Seth]

Yeah. And that, that is certainly fair. So I guess we shouldn't expect to be in the top 10. But it's just the idea that 20 different running backs did get a vote or mention and Montgomery was not one of those 20. So you know, if so facto, whatever, you know, I guess I'm trying to make the case that amongst these minds he wouldn't be considered in the top 20 overall. Some would disagree.

[Luke Morrow]

No, and it really, it's regardless, I mean that's like a, it's, it's still kind of a depressing thing to argue about whether like no, he'd be 18th if they did it with a different methodology. Damn you, Morrow. The methodology is all off on this. I think that with Montgomery, I don't know, I don't recall hearing people excited because they expect Montgomery to be a 2000 yard back or anything.

[Seth]

Right.

[Luke Morrow]

I think that for the most part what people really want to see is Just a credible rushing attack, not an incredible rushing attack. Just can you be a functioning rushing attack? And when you look at David Montgomery paired up with Woody Marks, and then whatever happens after that, whether it's Jawar Jordan or somebody else, I think it just feels like it's a more. It's a more solidly formidable rushing attack, if not a scary rushing attack. And what I want out of David Montgomery more than anything is just that they can convert in these short yardage situations or on first down, that they're gaining 4 yards instead of gaining 2 yards. It's not. I don't. I don't have dreams or aspirations of being the number one rushing offense in the NFL, so I'm. I'm not, like, overly rankled by this. It would be awesome if. It would be awesome if a bunch of unnamed anonymous executives said, yeah, you know, he really got screwed over last year. Was, Was, was Montgomery, and he's actually one of the best five backs in the league. He's not. But really what he needs to be for this team is somebody that just steadily grinds out yardage, and then especially in short yardage situations and in the red zone, can give you more of a hammer than what you had last year with either an aging Nick Chubb or a young and undersized Woody Marks.

[Seth]

Yeah. Which is totally fair. You mentioned the red zone. That's the big thing for me. One of my favorite stats about David Montgomery is in C.J. stroud's career, Montgomery has more red zone touchdowns than all Texan running backs during that time do combined.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, well, yeah, he was amongst running backs. He had the 12th. He was tied for 12th with eight touchdowns last year. There were a few guys that had eight touchdowns last year as running backs, but, yeah, 716 yards rushing, that was 30th in the league. And, you know, Jameer Gibbs became the guy. The one little tidbit about that that was interesting is that Gibbs, like, Gibbs, had a great year, you know, and he's very much up there. I don't know where he finished in these rankings, but the success rate. So success rate for rushing is just how. How many yards. What percentage of the. What percentage closer did you get to the first down marker on any given down based on down in situations? So, like on first down, I think it's four yards on second down and six. You got to get a certain percentage. So they got. Montgomery and Gibbs both took a big step backwards last year in terms of their success rate. That speaks to the issues that they're having. On the offensive line with the Lions last year. So like I remember looking at Montgomery and seeing that his success rate was lower last year. And you know, how much of that is because of the offensive line? How much is it because David Montgomery took a step backwards? The fact that Montgomery's success rate went down by about the same amount makes me feel better about some of Montgomery's drop off or whatever it was. Last year was more about the offensive line and injuries and Jameer Gibbs becoming more of the guy than it is that, you know, David Montgomery is just approaching that precipice where he falls off a cliff.

[Seth]

Yeah, that's interesting. I would not guess that they were both down that low and in that

[Luke Morrow]

same case it was still respectable, but it was they had been like 50% success in a couple years prior and now they're down. They were last year they were down around 44% or so or something like that.

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[Seth]

And this is just a quick sidebar. That was my whole thing for the Lions and Jared Goff and whatnot that they just had such a great offensive line. If you look at the numbers, no quarterback has a bigger disparity in their numbers between when they're pressured and when they're not pressured. Then Jared Goff and we saw, like you said, the whole offense took a step back last year because a you lose Ben Johnson. But B, they also lost two, at least two starting linemen, including their center. Offensive line wasn't as good last year in Detroit and the whole offense suffered, including the running backs a little bit as well.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. So David Montgomery, like in 2024, he'd been 55.1% success rate. He went down to 46.2% just in one year. Which sounds, which sounds alarming until you realize that, okay, Jameer Gibbs, even, you know, despite the year he had, wasn't as consistently successful as he'd been in his previous years. You know, those two years prior to that he had been at like the year before he was at 53.6%. Last year he dropped down to 46.5%.

[Seth]

What would you expect the, the carry share to be between Montgomery and Woody Marks? Do you think it's going to be kind of like a 55, 45 close to even or do you think Montgomery is going to get the vast majority of the carries in the backfield?

[Luke Morrow]

I think the, I think that he's probably initially going to get two thirds of the carries.

[Seth]

Okay.

[Luke Morrow]

And in some of that depends on what they're doing on third downs when you know, and in passing downs when you're more likely to see Woody Marks. But I think with Woody, part of it is that man we saw last year look in bad circumstances, but still he was getting injured a lot. I mean it was like, it felt like every game he was leaving with an injury at some point. And I think is for young running backs especially, some of that is learning just how to handle the wear and tear of the week to week grind that is the NFL and what you do with your recovery and all of that. But I'm, I'm guessing they're going to want to just try to keep him as much as possible successful, but also still adapting to playing in the NFL as a smaller guy and being used hopefully more as a receiver than, than as a first down running back as much as he can.

[Seth]

So with that said, before we hit the break here, I've been wondering about this and so I would love your, your, your thoughts on it. Montgomery hasn't been like that lead back in a couple of years. Do you think that helps or hurts? Do you think that helps the body, that, that it's not the, you know, like he's not your normal 29 year old or do you think that could almost lead to more wear down as the season goes along if he's getting more carries than he's been used to?

[Luke Morrow]

Oh, like it's just going to be a shock to his system that all of a sudden he's back up to.

[Seth]

Yeah, he's not used to getting that many touches and that many hits, you know, week to week, whatever.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, he's, you know, he's never been a huge heavy workload guy, but he's down to like he only had 158 carries last year, 185 the year before. But yeah, that's a, it's a fair point to bring up. I think anytime you're a 29 year old running back, I think everything, everything. It's fair to worry about everything in terms of wear and tear on the body.

[Seth]

Yeah, it's true.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. No, no, I don't think I, you know, I think it was Cody stutes. Cody said that he thinks this is the best running backs room they've had in a long time and I guess my initial knee jerk reaction to that would be, man, I don't know if you can say that when depending on how back far I, how far back he went. I didn't look at his article yet. But like in terms of what's the peak ability of your running back compared to okay, I feel good about David Montgomery and Woody Marks, but I don't think either of those guys is necessary necessarily a Joe Mixon, you know, in his first year with the Texans in terms of what his overall potential is. So I still have a lot of concerns about who the third running back is going to be if one of those guys, realistically, either Woody Marks or David Montgomery is going to miss some time due to injury this year. I'm not just 100% slam dunk confident in any of the backups at this point.

[Seth]

Yeah. Which I think is fair. I'm with you on that. You can find the list. By the way, the full rundown for Those interested on ESPN.com I imagine they'll come out with another position group today. Their top 10 rankings. Hey, when we come back, Julian Elman had some potential interesting insight on this Texans offense. We'll talk about that next.

[Susie Welch]

Payne and Pendergast Oregon Parks make an Oregon Summer but what makes an Oregon Park? Well, Oregon Lottery gameplay helps no matter the game. Megabucks, video lottery or keno, funds from lottery games help support parks projects across the state, ensuring they stay safe, accessible and open for all. In fact, Discover State Park Scratches are in stores now. It's the perfect way to put a little bit of Oregon's parks in your pocket. The Oregon Lottery Together we do good things must be 18 or older to play Lottery games are based on chance and should be played for entertainment only.

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[Seth]

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