Is CJ Stroud Simply Just Too Young? + Do Suits w/ Sneakers Need to Go?

Summary

Payne & Pendergast – Episode Summary

Podcast: Payne & Pendergast (Audacy)
Episode: Is CJ Stroud Simply Just Too Young? + Do Suits w/ Sneakers Need to Go?
Date: July 7, 2026
Hosts: Seth Payne, Luke Morrow (guest host for Sean)
Description: Houston’s go-to sports talk with sharp Texans/NFL analysis, strong opinions, and banter.

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Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dives into two main topics:

• NFL Quarterback Development & Patience – Is it fair or realistic to expect young quarterbacks like CJ Stroud to deliver Super Bowls early in their careers, and at what age do NFL players typically hit their prime?
• Fashion Debate: Suits with Sneakers – Is the modern trend of pairing suits with sneakers a style innovation or a fashion disaster?

The show mixes football analytics, Houston sports context, and good-natured sparring over cultural and locker room trends.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Suits with Sneakers: Trend or Tragedy?

(Starts ~02:00; Revisited periodically through ~06:00, and later at 32:00+)

• Luke Morrow calls out Ross Tucker's sneakers-and-suit look at the “Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding.”
  • Luke: “I think it’s a terrible look for anybody…we’ll look back on years from now and think like, why do people think wearing sneakers with a suit looked good?” (02:37)
• Seth is more neutral:
  • Seth: "I think it’s here to stay…A lot of people making that decision aren’t worried about whether it looks good…If I’m going to be spending a lot of time on my feet, I’m going to wear sneakers and to hell with you." (02:59)
• Seth admits to sometimes wearing sneakers with suits for comfort, especially when traveling.
• The segment turns playful, mocking various fashion trends (like high-water suits, loafers-with-shorts, and no-socks).
  • Seth: “What I really don’t like are these dainty little loafers…way too middle class a look for me. Like, it just feels like you’re trying too hard to look fancy.” (33:04)
• Both hosts agree fashion cycles—what looks silly now becomes retro cool later.
  • Seth: “Fashion from any era looks dumb when you look at it a decade or [two] later. And then three decades later, it looks really, really cool…Never think that you’re doing anything that isn’t going to look stupid in future years.” (34:44)

Listener Feedback (32:00+)

• Multiple listeners weigh in via text:
  • Worst look = "undersized suits with high waters and short sleeves" (32:14)
  • Too much ankle (“either wear socks or longer pants”) (32:31)
  • The “driver loafer” gets roasted as “too dainty” for men (39:01)
  • Classic counterpoint: “Sneakers and suits do not go together. It is tacky looking. Thank you.” (39:43)
• Seth’s Guiding Principle: “The most impressive people to me are always just the people that genuinely do not give a single damn about what your fashion norms are.” (36:44)
• Adam Sandler cited as a “don’t care” fashion role model.

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2. CJ Stroud, NFL Quarterbacks, and the Age-Old Patience Problem

(Main segment: 04:14–31:00 interspersed through episode)

The Athletics' Data: When Is an NFL Player’s "Prime"? (04:14–07:18)

• NFL’s “prime” is surprisingly young by average—peaks for QBs (24), RB/WR (23/24), etc.—but that data is skewed by high turnover.
• Seth: “These average ages…[are] heavily weighted by guys who are just no good at all…The guys that are actually good players…tend to do it around 29 to 31.” (05:21)
• Peak quarterback "value" actually comes ages 29–33 (per The Athletic’s advanced analysis).

Stroud’s Timeline & The Rookie Window Myth

• Most teams/analysts pressure franchises to win a Super Bowl with a QB on a rookie deal.
• But historic examples are rare: only Brady, Mahomes, and Roethlisberger have won a Super Bowl before age 25. Wilson was an exception—older rookie due to baseball.
  • Luke: “But that was a Steelers team that…they were a very good defensive team…Roethlisberger as a young quarterback was more of that game manager. Don’t screw it up.” (08:05)
• It's unrealistic to expect 24-year-old QBs to be elite winners right away.
  • Luke: “Stroud is 24. He’s the fifth youngest starting quarterback in the league still.” (12:30)

NFL’s Quarterback "Late Bloomer" Club & Patience

• Examples of QBs who found real success later: Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield—all had career peaks at 28 (12:30–13:13).

• Even Eli Manning was mediocre his first few years—survived due to pedigree and patience:

  • Seth: “Eli Manning was afforded a lot of patience…in this day and age, he might have been run out of town after his second year, except his last name is Manning.” (09:44)
  • Stats: In his "turnaround" year (age 26): 23 TD/20 INT, QB Rating 73.9 (13:13)

• Key Quote (Seth): “It's the hardest thing in the world…to just believe in that as a fan. Because...most quarterbacks who are mediocre in their first few seasons remain mediocre…Even quarterbacks that are promising…there's only so many good quarterbacks at any given time.” (15:43)

• Fans’ impatience is not always rational, because true franchise QBs are rare; mediocrity is usually what it looks like early.

Position Prime Ages & Rotational Insights (16:38+)

• Prime ages by position (per The Athletic):
  • QB/WR: 29–33, TE: 33–35, RB: 21 (then steep drop-off), Tackle/Center: up to 37.
• Defensive tackles have the longest average careers among non-kickers due to rotational roles.
  • Seth: "It's a nice semi-retirement you can have when you're a 34-year-old defensive tackle that plays like 20 or 25 snaps a game." (20:19)
• Zero veteran cornerbacks met the “10+ years, 400 snaps, grade 60+” standard—high-attrition, trait-dependent position. (21:31)

The Financial Angle: When (Not) to Extend Your QB

(22:41–27:40)

• Despite the urge to extend promising QBs by year 3, there are risks:
  • Seth: “You can think that your quarterback just needs more time to work it out, but that doesn't mean that you also have to extend his contract while you’re waiting.” (22:41)
• "Peace of mind tax"—better to pay extra to a proven commodity than risk “economic catastrophe” by paying for unfulfilled potential. Teams like the Cardinals and Dolphins cited as cautionary tales.
  • Seth: "The most catastrophic mistake you can make is paying a guy $200 million before you're sure...avoid catastrophe at all costs." (paraphrase, 25:35–27:15)
• Decision timeline advice: patience is both prudent and financially wise.

The Venn Diagram of CJ Stroud Takes (30:36–31:46)

• Complicating the discourse: there’s a difference between “should you extend him?” and “is he a legit starting NFL QB?”
  • Seth: "That’s a different conversation than, ‘is he a functioning starter in the NFL?’…It's possible and okay to say, ‘I think CJ’s got a lot of upside…but you don't [necessarily] have to pay him this year.’" (30:36)
• Luke and Seth agree: Stroud can be a decent starter and still not be worth a premature mega-deal.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Luke (on sneaker critique): "They look like corny or trying to be hip hop." (02:37)
• Seth (on fashion): “Getting these guys to wear suits at all is a victory. Don’t hold your standards so high.” (03:48)
• Luke: “My point being…it’s our patience might be too thin, our expectations might be too high, where it’s still really tough for these young quarterbacks to have the ultimate success.” (15:43)
• Seth (on patience): “Most quarterbacks who are mediocre in their first few seasons remain mediocre…Just pointing out the few that actually make it doesn’t mean that everybody who struggles…turns a corner.” (15:43)
• Seth: “Never think that you’re doing anything that isn’t going to look stupid in future years if you’re doing anything that’s remotely, like, outside just…the very standard fashion.” (34:44)
• Seth, on driver loafers: “There’s something about those driver loafers that rub me the wrong way. They just look a little…You know what, I can do? I could see my grandfather looking at a guy in those loafers and just kind of sneering at him because this guy obviously doesn't know how to do anything manual.” (39:01)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:00–06:00 – Suits & Sneakers style debate and Ross Tucker’s wedding anecdote
• 04:14–07:18 – NFL player age analytics: “prime” by position
• 08:00–10:50 – Super Bowls won by young QBs, “rookie window” fallacy
• 12:30–15:43 – Stroud’s age, patience for late bloomers, and recent examples
• 16:38–22:16 – Position-specific aging: RB/WR/TE/OL/DT, defensive longevity
• 22:41–27:40 – Should the Texans pay Stroud? Risk analysis, contract extensions
• 30:36–32:00 – The “Venn diagram” of CJ Stroud arguments: patience vs. immediate extension
• 32:14–41:40 – Fashion listener feedback, “dainty loafers,” and generational style trends

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Summary Table

| Segment | Theme | Key Quotes/Insights | |-----------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 02:00–06:00 | Suits & Sneakers | “It’s a terrible look…” “It’s here to stay...” | | 04:14–07:18 | NFL Age/Value Data | “The peak is not until 29…” | | 08:00–10:50 | Super Bowl windows & young QBs | Only Brady/Mahomes/Roethlisberger before 25 | | 12:30–13:13 (and after) | Stroud’s age and late bloomers | Eli Manning, Darnold, Jones, Baker at 28 | | 16:38–22:16 | Positional aging, survivor/rotational bias | DTs longest, CBs fall off cliff early | | 22:41–27:40 | Should Texans extend Stroud? | “Avoid catastrophe…” “Pay extra for certainty” | | 30:36–32:00 | Venn diagram of patience v. extension | “You can think he has upside and still wait.” | | 32:14–41:40 | Fashion roasting, listener feedback | “Dainty loafers…” “Never think your look won’t…foolish” |

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Takeaway for Non-Listeners

This episode delivers a detailed, evidence-based, and surprisingly witty breakdown of how we judge young quarterbacks (Stroud as example), arguing that modern patience is often too thin and expectations too high, especially when successful QBs historically peak near 30. The hosts weigh in on a much lighter—but passionately debated—topic: the merits and mistakes of mixing sneakers with suits, bringing listener feedback and personal taste into the conversation. Throughout, Payne and Morrow combine Houston-centric sports discussion with pop culture and fashion banter, showing off the mix of insight and relatability that underpins Payne & Pendergast.

Transcript

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[Luke Morrow]

is CJ Stroud just simply still too young? It's Pain and Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow in for Sean alongside Seth Payne. You can always join the conversation 713-572-4610 or get to us in the YouTube and Twitch chats. By the way, Seth, we were talking yesterday about that Taylor Swift Travis Kelsey wedding and we were wondering do we know anybody that was there? Oh yeah, I don't know if you saw, I saw the photo last. Yeah, I think it was last night. Ross Tucker posted a photo of him and his wife. Supposedly Ross Tucker was at the wedding.

[Seth Payne]

Ross Tucker was at the Travis Kelsey. Oh my God. You know what, he's a big swifty all right. That was one of most. He got a lot of. He he posted once emphatically that Taylor Swift was I know it was like a better, a better pop artist than Michael Jackson or something crazy. Something crazy that was going to elicit a huge respons and he got millions, millions of views on that one. It's like 99% negative. But yeah, I think he's, he's relatively a swifty by at least by middle aged man standards.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, so it's funny he got the invite so we know somebody that was there might have to get the dirt. And by the way, I love Ross. Great guy. He joins you guys each week during the football season. I think he's really good at what he does, all that sort of stuff. But if you go and look at the photo online. He's doing the classic black suit with sneakers look. Yeah, I gotta be honest, I don't know where you are, Seth. I think it's a terrible look for anybody. Not just, I'm not singling out Ross

[Seth Payne]

Tucker looks like they're black and white Jordans at least.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, at least they're Jordans. They're not like Skechers. But I think the sneakers with the suit look is terrible. I think when J. Billis does it, I think when Ernie Johnson does it, I think it looks terrible. And I think they also just kind of look like corny or trying to be hip hop. I think it's a lousy look that we'll look back on years from now and think like, why do people think wearing sneakers with a suit looked good?

[Seth Payne]

I think it's here to stay. I think, I think for the most part a lot of people making that decision aren't worried about whether it looks good or not. They just like if I'm going to be spending a lot of time on my feet, I'm going to wear sneakers and to hell with you. That's. I give them, I give them a pass on that. The only thing that keeps me from wearing sneakers with suits more often is that I don't keep my sneakers clean. So my, the shoes, you know, I wear them once or twice a year and I know they're not going to look dirty.

[Luke Morrow]

Right. So are you a sneakers and suit guy?

[Seth Payne]

If that's all I like. If I don't, I try not to be, but I don't worry about it. Sometimes I just don't want to pack shoes.

[Venmo Advertiser]

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[Seth Payne]

So then I'll do it. So I don't know if I'm a sneaker. I've been, yeah, I will wear sneakers with a suit. I would prefer not to, but it doesn't bother me when I, when I do it.

[Luke Morrow]

Gotcha. I probably should have asked that first before.

[Seth Payne]

Oh no, no, no, that's all right. I don't know because I think though that was, that's one of the things, the fashion, the fashion minded people always crush sports anchors for that and everything. And, and I'm like, man, just getting these guys to wear suits at all is a victory. Yeah. So why don't, don't, don't hold your standards so high. Luke Morrow, Fashionista west you live in.

[Luke Morrow]

That's right.

[Seth Payne]

Fancy lad.

[Luke Morrow]

And look, I'm somebody who, I show up here every day in shorts and a T shirt and I wear a hat every day.

[Seth Payne]

But your hat's Facing forward.

[Luke Morrow]

That' that I'm talking about fashion here. I had to turn it around, but I can clean up okay. And I don't do the sneakers with suits. I think it looks silly, but nonetheless, hopefully Ross Tucker had fun at the wedding. Is CJ Stroud simply just still too young? Which sounds kind of silly or sounds like excuse making, but I thought this was really interesting. The athletic put together a breakdown of by position, the ages of players in the league. And they looked at like, where do players peak? And then where does the drop off begin? And again by position, the sad thing and Seth, obviously you lived this life as an NFL player and you had a long career. But the sad thing when you look at this graph and you listeners can go find it on the athletics website, but the sad thing is like the peak for quarterbacks seems to be age 24, running back, 24, wide receiver, 23, tight end, 24. You know, it's just, it's, it's a young man's game, so to speak. And then when you look at these graphs, there's not a lot of guys in their 30s that are having the long careers.

[Seth Payne]

Well, but yeah, and I think though, but then where they go on to explain it, which is more encouraging, is that, okay, these average ages of players, it's always heavily weighted by guys who are just no good at all. That's, you know, and only play a couple years in the NFL. So like the average, you know, the average, the average career of an NFL playing player being three and a half years. That's what they cited forever. It's a bit misleading because it's really weighed down by guys that, you know, get a shot their rookie year in their second year and then they're washed out of the league. Whereas the guys that are actually good players and the guys that make the most impact at quarterback tend to do it around the ages from 29 to 31. So that's the part that like and with all of the skill position players in the offensive linemen that they do in this article, that's where I was actually happy that you sent this to us, to me because it's a little bit of a reminder that man, sometimes you get bogged down when you trade for sign a veteran free agent, that he's over the hill. Like not really. The good players tend to age pretty well into their late 20s, early 30s.

[Luke Morrow]

Right. So that's where I want to get to. Where how does this relate to CJ Stroud specifically? Well, as you just said, they not only crunch the Numbers of the ages of these players to see just simply what's the prime age for different position groups in the NFL? But then they also looked at average value for each position. And like you said, that peak, that prime for a quarterback is not until they turn 29 years old. The most successful years or the best value for quarterbacks have been from 29 to 33. But where the numbers start to turn red, where that quarterback is actually adding substantial value to their team isn't until they turn 25 years old and Stroud is still 24. So obviously nowadays in society we lose. We've lost all patience. Especially in sports, we don't have patience.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. And I think that that's where the things have kind of stabilized a little bit though is this dream that people love to have of, hey, you got to win a. Win a Super bowl while your quarterback's on his rookie contract. I think it's so enticing that people fall in love with the notion without realizing how rare it is for a quarterback to win a Super bowl on his rookie contract or while he's still a young quarterback that it is. If you take Mahomes and Brady out of it, you're, you're, you know, because those two guys were just slam dunk, okay. Really special situations and scenarios. You're left with what? Roethlisberger is the one guy that's won a quarterback at a young age like that. Russell Wilson was. Russell Wilson wasn't young. He was on his rookie contract. But because he had played baseball, he was a little bit older than most.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. The only three quarterbacks, like you said, under 25 to have win. Brady, Mahomes, the two greatest of all time. And by the way, when Brady was doing it, he was also passing for like 180 yards a game, whatever it was at that point. And then Roethlisberger like you said, but again, same idea. Roethlisberger average about 195 passing yards per game when he won the super bowl and had I think 17 touchdown passes that year. Different time, of course, different era. An era you played in, Seth. But, but that was a team, a Steelers team that they were a very good defensive team. And Roethlisberger as a young quarterback was more of that game manager. Don't screw it up. Those are the only three quarterbacks to win a Super bowl before turning 25, which has now become the expectation for all these guys like Stroud, where Stroud isn't even 25 yet. But we feel like it's a disappointment that he hasn't at least gotten to a Super Bowl.

[Seth Payne]

And I think even if you include Russell Wilson in that, who I think was 25 when he won the Super Bowl, I think was those guys, none of those guys were the quarterbacks they would become. And it's just, it's not as simple as just saying, oh yeah, Russell Wilson plopped onto some other team, was going to win a Super Bowl. He had that defense, he had Marshawn lynch, he had all those things. So I, I think that's where the pendulum is swung back. And white teams aren't as eager to just say, oh, it's, it's our quarterback and he's in his. He's. He just finished his third year. We got to give him a huge contract because where are you going to find a quarterback? Well, it turns out that guys like for one, I mean, if you look at veterans who are already proven in the league, but you can go out and get a Matt Stafford or you can get a Tom Brady, that's one thing. But then the Sam Darnolds, the Geno Smiths, the other guys that were relative late bloomers, you can see where, man, being in an imperfect situation earlier in your career really makes it hard to judge whether what a guy is as a quarterback. The Eli Manning, I think is a guy that maybe back in an era when they had more patience with guys. Eli Manning was afforded a lot of patience in his first couple of years where he really wasn't playing very impressive football. I feel like in this day and age he might have been run out of town after his second year, except that his last name is Manning. So they're going to keep giving you the benefit of the doubt as long as your last name is Manning, right? Yeah, with good reason. Like, even if the reasoning is wrong, it ends up working out.

[Luke Morrow]

Shoot things. When was, which year, which season was it when Peyton finally turned things around?

[Seth Payne]

Because I feel like today he was already. He was really good in the regular season. Very early. It was put in the playoffs. He was atrocious.

[Luke Morrow]

That's fair.

[Seth Payne]

He just, he was like, that was the label on him. Was that okay, He's a regular season quarterback. There was a little bit of a like a James Harden type dynamic going on with him early in his career.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Yeah, that's fair.

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[Luke Morrow]

But yeah, so Stroud and to your point? Well, yeah, let me go in this direction first, because to your point, people point to like Sam Darnold. Like you said, we look at the Seahawks last year and think like, man, if Sam Darnold could turn things around, why can't Stroud? Well, Darnold's 28. We point to Daniel Jones, who seemed to revitalize his career in Indianapolis last year. Also 28. Baker Mayfield's another example of that guy that really turned things around once he got to Tampa and made his first Pro bowl. He was also 28. So it goes back to the point the athletic was making of these guys. These quarterbacks don't hit their prime their peak until they're almost 30 years old. Shroud is 24. He's the fifth youngest starting quarterback in the league still.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, that like Eli Manning. If you go to the the 2007, which was a pretty good year for the giants, he was 26 years old. He was in his fourth year in the NFL and he threw 23 touchdowns. 20 interceptions, quarterback rating of 73.9.

[Luke Morrow]

Oh my God.

[Seth Payne]

And that was the year when everything really turned around for the Giants. And yet he's still. He would go on to have much better numbers than that in his career, but he'd been. He'd been a pretty mediocre quarterback. Is it. He would have better numbers than that. He still doesn't have any. He doesn't have an impressive resume like in the regular season as a quarterback. It's the fact that he's talked about as a potential hall of Famer is based exclusively on those two super bowl victories, for sure.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, he's. He led the league in interceptions three times and they were never like back to back years. Like, he did it when he was 26, he did it when he was 29, he did it when he was 32. Like every three years he would just lead the league in interceptions. He never got. Got that out of him.

[Seth Payne]

Imagine if CJ Stroud, and it's not even that much different of an era. But yeah, in 2013, if C.J. like maybe if, if this year, Eli. C.J. had. Eli's 2013 year, 18 touchdowns, 27.

[Luke Morrow]

Oh my goodness. And then Eli still went on to start like another decade or whatever after that.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, he would go on to play through 2019. Incredible. Before he was benched.

[Luke Morrow]

That's a brutal season. 27 interceptions to 18 touchdowns. Yeah. Let's hope something like that doesn't come here. But yeah, I was looking into it and again it sounds like. I said, it sounds like excuse making and whatnot. We saw what Stroud could do his first year and we've seen these other quarterbacks seem to pop pretty. Or some guys seem to pop right away like a Mahomes or whatever. Even a Josh Allen early on was pretty good. Still hasn't made, you know, still hasn't made it to a Super Bowl. But when you look at the 10 youngest quarterbacks in the league last year, excluding C.J. stroud, those 10 quarterbacks combined for four playoff wins and only one was from somebody not Drake May. I phrase that terribly, but Drake May had three of those playoff wins on his way to the super bowl. And we know he didn't have a great playoff run. And then Caleb Williams had the other win. Those are the only of the bottom 10 quarterbacks in age last year to have any sort of playoff victories. My point being it's our patience might be too thin, our expectations might be too high, where it's still really tough for these young quarterbacks to have the ultimate Success.

[Seth Payne]

It's the hardest thing in the world, though, to just believe in that as a fan. Because the fact of the matter is that most quarterbacks who are mediocre in their first few seasons remain mediocre quarterbacks or bad or they don't continue to get that chance. And even quarterbacks that are promising in their first few seasons, you know, there's only so many good quarterbacks at any given time. Bonafide really genuinely good quarterbacks at any time. So it's just hard to have that. It's hard for some people. Some people are dyed, you know, dyed in the wool. They'll ride with CJ until they die, no matter what. But just pointing out the few that actually make it doesn't mean that. Yeah, everybody who struggles in their second and third season or just put up mediocre results end up turning a corner at some point. The majority just never actually turned the corner.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, yeah, it's true. By the way, in case you're curious and you can go find this online, I found it interesting. We obviously have focus on the quarterback position, but the athletic also looked at what age does each position group, you know, hit their highest value. And so as quarterback, like we said, it's 29 to 33. Running back is right away 21 years old. They're in the red, which means high average value. And then they really fall off once they get to 32, which of course we all figured wide receiver, their. Their prime range is from 29 to 31. Tight end, surprisingly the highest value. And maybe this is bolstered by like a Travis Kelsey or something, you know, just a couple of guys, Tony Gonzalez, but they have it at 33 to 35 is the highest value for tight ends.

[Seth Payne]

You know, what's funny is that, yeah, I think that a few guys there, including, I don't know how far, I don't know how far back they went in this. But even Gronk at his age, like when he clearly wasn't the same guy physically, the being a big target, being savvy, especially in the red zone and all of those things that kind of factor into it if you're paired with the right quarterback, they. They, like tight ends, aren't penalized as much by losing a step or two, I think in their overall athleticism, like their savviness pays off as much as their actual athletic traits by that point. And then offensive line is like, I think. I can't remember you mentioned it yet if you're going there. But yeah, offensive linemen are by Far like the most impressive in terms of guys just playing. The impact guys being 29, 30, 31 years old, they have a lot of value still.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Offensive tackle and center, they still have the high value up to 37 years old. So those guys can play for a long time.

[Seth Payne]

Which is a little bit of survivor bias there though too. Just because some of the guys like, yeah, the guys that are the only guys that are still playing at that age tend to also be really good. So like Whitworth or, you know, Trent Williams got guys like that. That, that probably weights it a little bit more than what's accurate for most guys.

[Luke Morrow]

That's a good point. By the way, for the center position, you don't start hitting red, which again, for the purposes of this exercise, you want to be as red as possible. That's your highest value. That's the way the athletic did it for these charts, if that makes sense. And for centers, that doesn't come till 30 years old. And we're talking, of course about a Texans team that might be starting a rookie center this year. So, you know, we'll see what that means for the offensive line.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, that's. It's. But at the same time, you never want to have an offensive line that's. That's all old guys.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, true.

[Seth Payne]

There's got to be some balancing there. There's an old rule of 150, which is if you're, if you're starting offensive line averages, if their ages add up to 150 or more, you're headed for disaster. So that's where I think a little bit of that survivor bias comes in. Where. Yeah, like some of the, the guys that continue to play well into their 30s tend to also be really good offensive linemen. A lot of the other guys are getting rolled out because why, why do I have this 32 year old injury waiting to happen on my offensive line? Screw this guy. He's out of here. Go be a backup somewhere.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, that's. I actually have never heard that, but I like that idea of the 150. That's. That's an interesting a number philosophy. By the way, did you see in this, which position group has on average the longest career in NFL history?

[Seth Payne]

Is it kickers?

[Luke Morrow]

Oh, that'd be a good one. I actually don't think they included kickers, to be honest with you. I didn't see it on the list, but it's, it's defensive tackles.

[Seth Payne]

Oh, really?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah.

[State Farm Advertiser]

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[Luke Morrow]

And so I.

[Seth Payne]

Makes me feel like kind of a bum for me, rolled out at 32.

[Luke Morrow]

Oh, yeah, I was going to say, I don't mean it as a backhanded compliment, but I think you chose the right position if you wanted, if somebody wants to have a lengthy NFL career. Historically defensive tackles stick around the longest.

[Seth Payne]

There were 17 guys. I, you know, again, the, I think some of the outliers end up beefing it up more because they, what they did was the guys, the people who had at least 10 seasons played at least 400 snaps in 20, 25 with PFF grades of at least 60. So they're viable defensive tackles. There were 17 defensive tackles that met that, those criteria last year. I feel like the Texans probably help for depending on what they. I've seen Danico Autry classified as a defensive tackle on some depth charts, so maybe they included him there. But yeah, I think part of that is that because defensive lines rotate, you know, and that's, that's pretty much the standard, not the exception these days that there are a lot of 30 year old guys that are, you know, they're backups but they're playing a lot in a rotation and it's a nice, it's a nice semi retirement you can have when you're a 34 year old defensive tackle that plays like 20 or 25 snaps a game.

[Venmo Advertiser]

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[Luke Morrow]

That's a good point. It's like Pat Williams played until he was like, I think like almost 40 because he was just a, you know, run stuffer that played half the game, if that. Yeah, they just brought him in on running down. So yeah. So you mentioned the 17 defensive tackles. Zero cornerbacks fit that criteria. Last year of a veteran of 10 plus seasons, played at least 400 snaps, had a grade of at least 60. Pro Football Focus. I was surprised. Zero cornerbacks.

[Seth Payne]

So that's obviously quarterback, but that's, that's a position where it does the, the traits are so important, the high end physical traits that a lot of times those guys just fall off a cliff all of a sudden. They're awesome, they're awesome, they're awesome. And then boom, you lose that half a step and it just, you can't make up for it with savvy the way you can at some of the other positions.

[Luke Morrow]

So you can find it all on the athletic. Again, sounds like a cop out. Sounds like an easy excuse. But are we forgetting the fact that hey, maybe C.J. shroud is just still simply too young? Quarterbacks historically don't reach that prime until their late twenties. You look at the reclamation projects, Darnold Geno Smith, Baker, Daniel, Jones, they're all in their late 20s. Meanwhile, you know, not a lot of quarterbacks are actually winning Super Bowls this young.

[Seth Payne]

But this is where if the Texans don't indeed end up extending C.J. stroud, and there's, like, it doesn't really feel right, this moment, like they're going to extend him. I think that this is where two things can be true. Like, you can think that your quarterback just needs more time to work it out, but that doesn't mean that you also have to extend his contract while you're waiting for him to work it out. And it just, it became way too much of the standard thinking that, oh, okay, quarterback who still has a lot of promise, and we don't know what his upside is after his third year. Oh, we better lock him in, because what if. What if he ends up being really awesome and we have to pay him more money? Okay, cool. That's a nice problem to have. Like having to pay him a bunch of money when it doesn't end up working out for him eventually. That's a much worse problem to have than, oh, we've got to pay our, our awesome quarterback an extra $10 million a year now, like one of those you can work with. The other one makes you, A, lose your job as a general manager, and B, the organization has to start from scratch again.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, yeah, it's. It's a good point that we can make this argument on both sides, like you said. I mean, we can say it's why we should wait on CJ Stroud or cut him some slack, but then also why the Texans would want to wait to get more information or just wait in general on the quarterback to still see him grow.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, the problem is that it's like, he's not an index fund. You know, you can. If you've got an index fund, you can say, look, look over time, let's just give it, give it 10 years and you're going to be just fine. Don't worry about what's going on right now. The problem with quarterbacks is that you've got to, you've got to sell them completely and buy a new fund. And it's just the law of averages doesn't work out that way. So it's really hard to just say, well, stick with this quarterback for 10 years. He just needs to time and patience. There comes a point where, and this is where the people in the organization hopefully have a better feel for things than anything we can see on the outside. Just based on how CJ Operates in the building. What is. What's his process in coming back from bad losses? How is he actually executing the offense? Those are the things you can get a good feel for over the course of four years that maybe give them a much better feel at the end of this season about whether, like, all right, yep, we're full bore in on CJ or, you know what, we got to start maybe thinking about some alternative plans.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. And I'm the type that in my life, I like to gain. Maybe it's. Maybe it's a problem. Maybe I need to be a better decision maker, but I like to gain as much information as I can before I make a decision. So if you don't have to pay the guy just yet, let's give it another year and see what else we can gain before we make that decision. And as you said, I have no problem paying a peace of mind tax that if I'm gonna have to pay more for him a year from now than now, but I feel a lot better about him a year from now. That's fine with me. I feel a lot more comfortable than just simply making a payment because I have to make a payment or just to try to save me money, you know, down the road.

[Seth Payne]

Nick Casario is a big fan of Morgan Housel this guy that writes books about money, financial management and all of that. And in one of the books, I don't know if it was Psychology of Money or one of these, but one of the big points is that in talking about people who are rich and then go broke, you know, people that got their money just through business, they're smart and everything, but when they don't, when the mistake they make is often just not planning to avoid catastrophe. So that, like, in any amount of aggressive moves or whatever, you always have to be asking yourself, okay, wait a second. Is the downside of this. Is the downside of this plan just economic ruin? And be aware that that's more potential than it probably feels like. It's more probable than it feels like at any given point. So in paying a quarterback after his third season, you look at the benefit would be, oh, okay, we could lock him in at a reduced rate for a long time. Okay, cool. That's nice to have. What's the downside? Oh, economic catastrophe. We've got a situation like the Dolphins or you've got the Cardinals, and we're going to have to start from scratch all over. I feel like the risk benefit there is. I'm way more scared of the catastrophe of paying a quarterback that you're not 100% sure about and everything that that entails. More so than I am paying a little bit extra for a quarterback once he gets paid, and paying him an amount that other teams in the league are going to have to pay for their quarterbacks too. It's not like it's, it's not like it's something that other teams don't have to deal with and that they end up succeeding, you know, by working through. I would, I I'm all about avoiding the catastrophe in a situation like this.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, I'm with you 100%, which is why, honestly, I, I'm. I guess I shouldn't be surprised. But if we really boil down to it like you just laid out, I don't get the outrage or the big conversation about like, how have they not paid the guy yet? Because this isn't the final decision. You don't have to make the call just now. We still have time. And ideally you want to get as much information as you can before you make such a big decision like that.

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[Seth Payne]

Is there anything in your diet that might be spiking your blood sugar? I said sometimes I eat pizza until I'm unconscious, he said. I think that might be it for real.

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[Seth Payne]

Mom, can you tell me a story?

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Was she brave?

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[Seth Payne]

Did you have to fight a dragon?

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Nope. She bought it 100% online from her bed, actually.

[Jenna Fischer]

Was it scary?

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Did the car have a sunroof?

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[Seth Payne]

I think that's the word. I think sometimes I think people mix up the conversations. And I think it was Brandon Scott that first laid this out earlier this year when he just said, you know, there's two conversations about. There are two conversations about CJ Stroud. On the one hand, is, okay, should you extend him? That's a different conversation than, all right, is he a functioning starter in the NFL? What is his ceiling? All of that. That it's okay, it's possible and okay to say, all right, I think CJ's got a lot of upside. And I think we, you know, even if you have confidence that he's going to be good, that's not the same conversation as you got to pay him this year. And I do. I think a lot of teams that are really eager to sign that quarterback, if anything, it's a sign of weakness in their organization. More so than it is a statement about the quarterback himself.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, 100%. I've said the same thing. I believe in congruent arguments. So I. Look, I don't think the Texans should pay CJ Stroud just yet. Doesn't mean, I think CJ Stroud is terrible and shouldn't be the starting quarterback. So there is that middle ground. You can be in both. It's like, what were those?

[Seth Payne]

The Venn diagram.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Is it the Venn diagram with the two overlapping circles? Yeah, yeah. I'm. And I'm in the middle. I, you know, don't pay him. But he's also not terrible yet or just terrible in general. So yeah, you can exist there. And I agree. I agree with that sentiment from. From B. Scott. I said the same thing that, you know, we can have different conversations on this whole thing. By the way, I just looked at the text line. Somebody said needed some hate and ass. Luke this a.m. let's go. In regards to the whole suits conversation, we actually got a lot of feedback on that.

[Jenna Fischer]

Whatever that.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, I bet people were pretty split about the sneakers with suits thing.

[Luke Morrow]

Yes, a lot of feedback. One te Dexter said the worst look ever are these suits that look undersized and have high waters and short sleeves. I've come around on the high waters on the suits.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

But admittedly, I hate this other fashion statement now where people wear not loafers, not like slip ons, but they'll wear dress shoes without any socks and then they wear the high waters. I don't like that look. To me it's too much male ankle. I don't like it either wear socks or longer pants.

[Seth Payne]

You know what I really don't like are these dainty little loafers that some guys wear with shorts in the summer, like with no socks there where it's almost like they're like tiny little loafers that are nice shoes and they're wearing them with like golf pants and a

[Luke Morrow]

golf shirt like the outsiders. Like the boat shoes.

[Seth Payne]

No, they're not boat shoes. They're dainty. I don't know what the hell they are, but they're dainty shoes. And it's just. It's way too. It's just way too. It's way too middle class a look for me. Like, it just. It feels like you're trying to. Or upper middle class. Like whatever. Like you're just. You're trying too hard to look fancy in casual clothes. I don't like that.

[Luke Morrow]

I get that somebody said we, we gotta get Luke some Concord 11. So change his mind then. Admittedly, I don't know what Concord 11s are.

[Seth Payne]

I'm gonna Google those dainty little loafers. I googled it. And I got these classic breathable lace loafers up. That's why I don't they're dainty little loafers.

[Luke Morrow]

Classic breathable lace loafers. I got to get eyes on this. Now see what you're talking about.

[Seth Payne]

You'll see. You'll see them out in nature, and you'll be. You'll be like, that's. That's not for me. They look actually pretty comfortable, though. I just. I don't like when you try to. That's where I feel like that's. That's a situation where somebody might say, well, now, sneakers would look a little too casual here. I'm gonna go with these ridiculously looking little dainty shoes. Like I'm a 17th century aristocrat or something. Yeah, I just. That's. I don't like it. I don't like it.

[Luke Morrow]

I just love. Dainty is such a great word to use to describe it. It just makes it sound so bad. People said. Or another text said. People in the 80s said the same about T shirts with a suit and rolling up the jacket sleeves. Now, we all still do that. Right? Right. Like the Don Johnson, Miami Vice look. Yeah, same thing. You look back on that and think, like, what was that guy thinking? I think that's going to be the sneakers with suits look years from now.

[Seth Payne]

Sneaker. Okay. So pretty much fashion from any era looks dumb when you look at it a decade or that is true. Yeah. And then three decades later, it looks really, really cool. But I mean, some of the stuff that. That's how it was with the 70s. You know, you used to look at some of the clothes and the suits and everything that people would wear in the 70s. You're like, that's the dumbest thing I've ever seen in my entire life. And then it kind of came back and you're like, oh, it's cool. I kind of see the flair with all of that. And then it'll look stupid again. So, yeah, never, never think that you're doing anything that isn't going to look stupid in future years. If you're doing anything that's remotely, like, outside, just like the very standard fashion.

[Luke Morrow]

That's fair.

[Seth Payne]

So wear your sneakers with suits. Don't let Luke Morrow shame you.

[Luke Morrow]

No, no, no.

[Seth Payne]

You got too many people on Instagram and TikTok shaming you for how you look and how you need to be more alpha. This and all that. Ah, do what you like.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. I do get embarrassed when I look back at photos from, whatever, the early 2000s with how baggy the clothes were, especially for athletes. You look back at the basketball jerseys of, like, the, you know, 2005 range. 2005, 2010. It was the pants, the jersey. Everything was so baggy. It looks so weird now. But that was obviously.

[Seth Payne]

That was the look that's actually. But that's what's coming back now though, too.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Which is weird.

[Seth Payne]

Like these super oversized pants and everything. A lot of you got a lot of grown men in their 20s looking like skater kids like that. See, like what I told you just now when you look back and you think, oh, wow, that was look so stupid. It's coming right back into vogue.

[Luke Morrow]

No, it's true. And I will agree with this texture from the 8, 3, 2. They said you, Seth. Nailed it. As long as the shoes are comfortable. That's the big reason. Especially if you have a former athlete whose feet probably hurt from playing sports.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

And that's fair because this all started with the Ross Tucker conversation and he obviously was an NFL lineman. So I do get that. That if it is an issue where you got banged up feet or whatever, you need more comfortable shoes. I understand. But in general, I just don't like the look.

[Seth Payne]

The most impressive people to me are always just the people that genuinely do not give a single damn about what your fashion norms are. And either. Sometimes those are super artsy people that are just wearing whatever the hell they feel like wearing that day. And it's impressive. But then on the flip side, it is the guy that just is totally comfortable looking like a bum wherever he goes. And it helps if you're super rich. You can get away with that more. Like, you see a guy in a restaurant that's got a dress code, but there's one guy in there and flip flops and a T shirt like, okay, that guy. That guy, like, either owns the place or knows people or something, and he's just. He just does not give a single damn.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. I said that yesterday about Adam Sandler. Like, that's how I want to be. If I ever came into a lot of money, I would dress like a total bum too. Just so people think, like, wow, what a bum. And then.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, because with Sandler, it's not even like, it's not just that he's wearing unimpressive clothes or whatever. He just genuinely doesn't care how it looks like. There's nothing about, like, the. The clothes that he's wearing where it's like, okay, he doesn't want to spend a lot of money on clothes, but he looks good. Like, no, no.

[Luke Morrow]

He just.

[Seth Payne]

He genuinely does not care.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Does it match?

[Seth Payne]

He just looks like a college kid. That just, you know, woke up late and had to make it to chemistry.

[Luke Morrow]

Exactly.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

Somebody else, another texter said, I can't find the text now, but they were saying, these are the trendsetters. These are the athletes doing this. Why don't you get in line? Yeah. Also, you know, Janko jeans was once a trend as well. And, and, you know, chained wallets and whatnot. Like, we already laid out. Not all trends are great or certainly stay in style.

[Seth Payne]

Plus, I wouldn't put NFL football players in the trendsetter category. We're the, like, fashion wise, we're the dorkiest of sports. Partly because of just body type. It's just harder for guys to. And then you know what happens? A lot of guys, they kind of get sucked into, like some custom tailor early in their career. And a lot of times those guys are just. They're just. They suck. They're selling guys on crap that doesn't look good, but they've got their. They've got their athlete and they're buying their bill. You know, they're designing custom clothes for them and everything. But it's not anything that, you know, Italian Vogue isn't picking it up for tips.

[Luke Morrow]

By the way, multiple texters said the dainty shoes you're referring to are called driver loafers.

[Seth Payne]

Oh, okay. Yeah, I don't like the driver loafers. I don't think it's a good look for men. Even if I'm sitting here and acting like I don't give a damn what people wear or whatever, there's something about those driver loafers that rub me the wrong way. They just look a little. You know what I can do? I could see my grandfather looking at a guy in those loafers and just kind of sneering at him because this guy obviously doesn't know how to do anything manual. That sort of. I'm letting my grandfather's biases creep into it.

[Luke Morrow]

And somebody else said, tell Seth he's right on those velvet looking, slim, glorified, smoking jacket type house slippers look weird with shorts.

[Seth Payne]

They're too dainty.

[Luke Morrow]

Dainty is a great word. So there you go. There's the fashion tips from your morning show. Yeah. Last text I read somebody said sneakers and suits do not go together. It is tacky looking. Thank you. That's what I'm saying.

[Seth Payne]

You know, the thing is, though, what if I think there's a time you can pull it off, but it's got to be with like a super casual suit, right?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, right.

[Seth Payne]

As far as my stance is, I Don't really care because a lot of times it's just for comfort. But you can pull it off sometimes, right, if it's like it's just got to be a certain look or something.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. I do agree. And I think they've created that happy medium where they are. I'm wearing some right now where they are like sneakers, but they look dressy. They're not Jordans. That's the thing. Like when you're wearing high top Jordans and it bundles up your, the bottom of your pants at the top of the shoes, it just looks. It looks silly. But there's are. There are plenty of sneakers out there that are sneakers that look dressy, and I think those look really good with Sue.

[Seth Payne]

Can't wait to castigate Ross Tucker the next time he comes over. His shoe wear.

[Luke Morrow]

I know. I wish this. It's Tuesday. He. I wish it was the NFL season. He'd be joining us today. We could talk about the wedding. We could talk about his.

[Seth Payne]

I don't think. Has anybody talked about the wedding. I feel like there are a bunch of NDA signs. Is that.

[Luke Morrow]

I'm sure I haven't heard anything. Bill Simmons did a. I saw somebody. It went viral. Bill Simmons did a funny bit where he pretended he was at the wedding on his podcast and his producers were asking him questions.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

And he was answering the questions and they were like, I guess believing and going along with it. And then at the end he was like, yeah, I didn't go to the wedding. I was just trying to make you believe. So, no. That's the closest thing we got. No, I don't think anyone has spoken on it. And to your point, I don't think anyone can.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. I don't think Ross is going to tell us anything. He's not. He doesn't have the resources to fight Taylor Swift.

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[Luke Morrow]

I don't know.

[Seth Payne]

Apple for Christ. Yeah, they know there's. There's not a chance in hell he's going to say a thing about it.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Hey, coming up a little bit later on, we'll get to David Montgomery, top running back list. But when we come back, are we being unfair to Cam Smith? I sort of just defended CJ Stroud. I guess I'll defend Cam Smith next. Are we being unfair to the young outfielder? We'll talk about it next on Payton

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[Seth Payne]

So order more pizza.

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