Is the League INDIFFERENT to CJ Stroud? + Can Run Game Take Texans to SB?

Summary

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Payne & Pendergast – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Is the League INDIFFERENT to CJ Stroud? + Can Run Game Take Texans to SB?
Date: July 15, 2026
Hosts: Seth Payne & Luke Morrow (in for Sean Pendergast)
Main Theme: The episode dives into the rising sense of indifference toward Texans QB C.J. Stroud among NFL insiders, examines new rankings and their implications, and debates what Houston’s run game and offensive line rebuild mean for their Super Bowl hopes.

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the lack of excitement—or outright indifference—NFL executives and coaches seem to have for C.J. Stroud, as revealed in recent ESPN and NFL player rankings. Seth Payne and Luke Morrow discuss what this means for Stroud, the Texans’ offense, and Houston’s overall Super Bowl aspirations. The conversation also features deep dives into quarterback development, offensive complexity, penalty discipline, and the importance of a revamped running game.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. CJ Stroud and the NFL’s “Indifference”

• ESPN Ranking & Jeremy Fowler’s Comments
  • ESPN's top-10 QB poll (based on votes by 70+ scouts, execs, coaches) placed Stroud no higher than 18th, with just a single top-10 vote. (04:42)
  • Quote (Jeremy Fowler):
    “I didn’t get enough responses on CJ Stroud to get a ton of feedback because he really just wasn’t a factor in the voting ... It’s just maybe more of a little indifference. I just didn’t get a lot of responses on him.” (05:16–06:13)
  • Seth and Luke stress that indifference—a lack of any strong opinion—can be more damning than open criticism:
    • Quote (Seth Payne):
      “That was depressing to me ... I would have liked to hear executives or coaches say, 'No, he’s done. He’s never going to be anything.' ... The fact that they're just indifferent ... that’s somehow even more—more deflating and scary because it’s the genuine reality of the deal.” (09:36)
  • Luke draws analogies from media (“If someone’s indifferent, they’re not even thinking about you ... you’re even worse off”), referencing The Fountainhead and Mad Men for the “I don't think about you at all” line. (10:00–11:34)
• Context on QB Rankings
  • The credibility of player polls and their flaws are discussed.
  • Jalen Hurts’ low ranking (17th), despite his accomplishments, shows volatility and perception issues in these lists. (07:42)

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2. Greg Cosell’s Analysis – Stroud’s Development Curve

• “Game Moving Too Fast”
  • Cosell (from Ross Tucker Podcast, clip from 2025): Stroud plays “incredibly fast,” struggles out of rhythm, perceives pressure not always there—“not been a comfortable player.” (14:51)
  • Quote (Greg Cosell):
    “His mental and physical processes become speeded up way too soon. He perceives pressure that’s often not there ... Everything becomes faster ... the last two years, for the most part, with few exceptions, he’s not been a comfortable player. Everything’s happening too fast for him.” (14:51)
  • Social media misrepresented Cassel’s comments as harsher than they really were—Seth points out the difference between real analysis and clickbait quotes. (15:35–17:30)
  • Transitioning to a more complex “New England style” offense is a challenge both for Stroud and new OC Nick Caley. (17:44–19:45)
• Stroud’s Maturation Off the Field
  • Luke and Seth recall early “rookie mistakes” in media appearances, noting Stroud has grown more cautious with public statements. (20:32–22:20)

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3. National Media’s Evolving View: Super Bowl Hype If Run Game Clicks

• Team Building and DVOA Metrics
  • Some national analysts, like Aaron Schatz, now see Houston as legitimate AFC favorites based on defense.
• Jeremy Fowler Pitches Texans as Contenders—If They Can Run
  • Quote (Jeremy Fowler):
    “They need to be able to run the ball and simplify some things for him [Stroud]. Once they do, his arm talent and his ability can take over ... They have the best defense in the league ... If they can run the ball, I think they’ll win the Super Bowl.” (23:56)
  • Debate on whether a dominant defense is enough, given the bottom-third rankings of several offensive players. (26:02–27:10)
  • Payne tempers enthusiasm with a reminder that most teams relying on the “good enough” offense model often disappoint—though the Seahawks’ recent example shows upside if coaches get unexpected production. (29:40)

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4. What Really Makes a Great Run Game? — Penalties, Coaching, and Chemistry

• Nate Tice on Running Games & Penalties
  • Tice argues that the best run units are also the least penalized—pre-snap errors and holding calls kill drives. (33:42–35:37)
  • Quote (Nate Tice):
    “Some of the best running teams are the least penalized teams because they’re the smartest teams and they know what they’re getting ... even teams that got better, you can look at just their pre-snap penalties and see that get better. ... It’s very cool to see some teams get better and then it becomes tangible.” (33:42–35:37)
  • Payne and Morrow examine how much of Houston’s penalty history is about coaching vs. the learning curve of implementing a new, complex offense. (38:25)
    • Bill O’Brien’s “parlay thinking” – too many “ifs” don’t yield results; the Texans’ 2026 offense relies on a rebuilt O-line "if" it gels. (31:37)
• Offensive Complexity — Strength or Risk?
  • Every added wrinkle (pre-snap motion, audibles, formation variety) raises chances for mistakes and mental errors.
    • Quote (Seth Payne):
      “...Every time you add another wrinkle of complexity to it, there’s also a much greater chance for a mental error or penalty ... How much complexity can my team handle right now?” (41:16)
  • Payne critiques past moments when unfamiliarity cost Houston big, such as a “fullback” role given to a defensive lineman who hadn't practiced the play at full speed—"What the hell is Nick Caley doing?" (40:20)

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5. Final Thoughts: Can This Version of the Texans Actually “Win Ugly” to a Title?

• Both hosts discuss how unusual it is that key offensive contributors (David Montgomery, Dalton Schultz, O-line) aren’t even making top-20s in positional rankings, making their “Super Bowl favorite” status even more about defense and coaching. (26:02–27:10; 31:08)
• Payne remains optimistic—but cautious—that a jump in O-line performance would have a cascading effect, but too many “ifs” remain.
• Fantasy football warning: Ignore Houston skill position rankings for now; just wait to see how the offense looks. (29:40–31:37)

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Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• Jeremy Fowler on Indifference:
  “It’s just maybe more of a little indifference. I just didn’t get a lot of responses on him.” — Jeremy Fowler (06:13)

• Seth Payne on Indifference vs. Criticism:
  “The fact that they’re just indifferent and just aren’t even really thinking about them, that’s somehow even more—more deflating and scary because it’s the genuine reality...” (09:36)

• Luke Morrow on Media Perception:
  “If someone’s indifferent, they’re not even thinking about you. You’re even worse off, I would say, than someone saying, ‘Oh, no, he’s not very good, or… good enough.’” (10:00)

• Greg Cosell on Stroud’s Game Speed:
  “CJ Stroud has become a quarterback that plays incredibly fast. His mental and physical processes become speeded up way too soon. He perceives pressure that’s often not there ... Everything’s happening too fast for him.” (14:51)

• Jeremy Fowler on Texans’ Super Bowl Chances:
  “If they can run the ball, I think they’ll win the Super Bowl. I think they have that kind of team.” (23:56)

• Nate Tice on Penalty Discipline:
  “Some of the best running teams are the least penalized teams ... Penalties happen when players’ footwork, when... It’s frustrating to see teams just not know what they’re getting with defenses and hold or get illegal shift penalties ... It becomes tangible.” (33:42–35:37)

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Segment Timestamps

• CJ Stroud’s Ranking & Indifference (04:40–11:34)
• Greg Cosell’s Film Breakdown (14:19–17:41)
• Transitioning to New Offense & Maturity (19:45–22:20)
• Super Bowl Hype & Rankings Reality Check (23:04–27:10)
• Running Game, Penalties, and Coaching Nuance (32:55–41:16)

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Tone & Style Notes

• The discussion is analytical, candid, occasionally self-deprecating, and playful—Seth and Luke keep things honest but light enough for sports fans.
• There’s genuine insider perspective (Payne is a former NFLer) balanced by relatable fan skepticism and banter.

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For Listeners:

This episode offers a sobering check for Texans fans regarding league perceptions of CJ Stroud, but also details why improved O-line play and disciplined offense might be enough to lift Houston into true contender status this fall—though it’s clear that the margin is razor-thin and the football gods will need to look kindly on Nick Caley’s offense and C.J. Stroud’s growth.

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Transcript

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[Luke Morrow]

Are the Texans just this one tweak away from winning a Super Bowl? We'll get to that coming up here. Payne and Pendergast, little dirty laundry from Don Henley bringing us back.

[Seth Payne]

That's appropriate. Yeah, do that that quickly. I was telling you during the break about how one of my former college classmates is going to going to minimum security prison for some white collar crime and we're having such a good time on the group text yesterday talking about it like 13 of my 13 of my college teammates. None of us were all that fond of this guy. I don't want to say that we were taking delight in him going to prison. I'm just saying that it wasn't a surprise to any of us.

[Luke Morrow]

Finally got his maybe one of. Yeah, just saying maybe one of those guys was the one that tipped off the irs. I don't know.

[Seth Payne]

I don't know. One of those guys might have gotten screwed but he's not allowed to talk about it or something. Yeah, this Guy, I say, this kid. This guy. The one thing about him, though, is that he's a. He's a sleepwalker.

[Commercial Voice]

Like, he.

[Seth Payne]

He walks in his sleep, like, pretty badly. And I just. I'm thinking about, man, that could be a dicey proposition. Not as much a minimum security prison as is in a real prison, but still. Yeah. All of a sudden, your bunkmate, you know, wakes up in the middle of the night, you're sitting on his bed.

[Luke Morrow]

Right. That's true. I would hate that. I had a roommate like that in college who, when he would drink, obviously, I think that wasn't quite sleepwalking, but he would sleepwalk in the middle of night after a heavy night of Dr. Yeah, that was the worst. I would wake up. It was creepy. I'd wake up. We shared a room, the two of us, in college. And I'd wake up, and he'd be like, just roam, you know, walking into my closet and whatnot.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

And he was the one. One of those guys that would urinate, as in his sleep.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

So I had.

[Seth Payne]

Doesn't play well in prison.

[Commercial Voice]

No.

[Seth Payne]

He was gonna pee on your roommate. Yeah, yeah. Or cellmate, I guess.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Anyways, I'm. I'm officiating his wedding next week, so I'll have plenty of stories.

[Seth Payne]

Oh, yeah, Good.

[Luke Morrow]

So I painted Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow, in for Sean, alongside Seth Payne. 713-572-4610. On the text line. That's why Ben is the best morning producer in the business. Queuing up the song at the perfect time. Hey, we got a lot of CJ Shroud stuff, and we got a lot of audio, too. We'll try to get to as much of this audio as we can over the course of the next three hours here. But obviously, now that we head towards training camp, you know, football, of course, is on the mind of many. It's. It's taking over. I saw somebody say that, that the best thing about, you know, waking up after the All Star game, Major League Baseball story game is like, okay, now we can turn our attention to football. And, boy, are we. And Stroud, obviously, is one of the hot topics in the NFL. So there's a lot of people out there right now talking about C.J. stroud, especially with that top 10 quarterback ranking on ESPN and this top 100 list that is continuing by the NFL. And we're waiting to see if and when C.J. stroud pops up on that list. But I did find some of this audio. Seth, you found this audio and then I found it interesting after you pass it along. But Jeremy Fowler, with some interesting audio and a word that I like that you pointed out earlier, because we say the same thing in broadcasting, that it's the word you never want to hear. And I guess it might be the same for quarterbacks.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. Indifferent.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

And just to set this up, this is Jeremy Fowler, who compiles these top 10 top 10 position rankings on ESPN, talks to 70 scouts, executives, coaches, etc. To try to come up with these rankings. And CJ CJ finished at best, 18th in the voting. And really, he only had one top 10 vote. Only one vote, because guys vote for their top 10. And he said when Dan Patrick asked him about CJ Stroud and what. What some of these poll respondents were saying is what Jeremy Fowler said, you

[Jeremy Fowler]

know, I didn't get enough responses on CJ Stroud to get a ton of feedback because he really just wasn't a factor in the voting. But I think with Stroud, it's.

[Seth Payne]

And maybe that's the point of it, that you didn't get responses. That says a lot, kind of.

[Jeremy Fowler]

I mean, honestly, I think he got one vote. I want to say it just wasn't. He wasn't a factor. But the abilities there, you know, what happened last year, especially in the playoffs, it's certainly a concern. You know, some people wonder, like, okay, is that a byproduct of something that was going on behind the scenes all year or just wasn't comfortable in the offense? I know it was raining that day and New England played well, but some of the decisions were odd. It's funny, though. He has a chance to be a fast riser because the tools and the skill set are there. And you talk about quarterbacks being able to throw over the middle of the field with accuracy. He can do some of those things where some of the quarterbacks ahead of him aren't as good. So I don't necessarily think, like, people are really down on him or he's not a starter or he's. His job's on the line. I don't feel like it's.

[Commercial Voice]

That.

[Jeremy Fowler]

It's just maybe more of a little indifference. I just didn't get a lot of responses on him.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, that's. That was depressing to me. That was. I think the. Of the two main lists that are coming out right now, there's the NFL top 100, which is really, like. If you think about the way the balloting works, the. For the NFL top 100 players, choose who the top 20 players are. That's just. They have a ballot and they fill out who they think the top 20 players are. So to, like, use that as a ranking for the actual, okay, who's 50th through 100th, it's mathematically really dicey for a lot of different reasons, I think. Likewise, though, with the ESPN Tap 10 in a position group, it's. It makes a little bit more sense because it's a smaller pool. You're. You're, you know, you're confining it to one position. But, like, one vote in the top 10 skews things a lot more. And then if you have two in the top 10, like, the ranking, the rankings for 11 through 25 can be swayed a lot by just one opinion. It's. It's really notable that CJ has fallen in each successive year since 2024, to the point now where I think people are looking at him as, like, he's definitively not a top 10 quarterback other than just one person who put him in that vote. And so, yeah, when you're having a conversation about who the top 10 are right now, CJ is somewhere outside of that in most people's minds, and it puts him into that group of players who didn't make the top 10 on ESPN. But, like, some of the more notable things I like, okay, C.J. stroud being 18th, 19th or 20th or wherever he ended up finishing in the voting, that's notable. But, like, Jalen hurts having the. Jalen hurts being so far outside. I think he finished 17th or something. Like, that's. That's a guy that's been. That's a guy who's won a Super bowl, been to a couple of Super Bowls, but isn't looked at, in a weird way, isn't looked at as the driving force on his team and. And is not regarded as a top 10 quarterback like Eagles fans have a lot more. And I tend to agree with him not being top 10 or being debatable whether he's a top 10. But I also understand why Eagles fans would be irate about him not being in the top 10 despite everything he's accomplished.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, for sure. And there was one part in that clip from Jeremy Fowler where I did chuckle because he sounded so dejected when Dan Patrick said something like, I don't know, that's not very much, or whatever about C.J. shroud. And he said, yeah, I know. Like, he almost, like Fowler was sad to admit that there wasn't a lot of thought about CJ Stroud in this whole thing.

[Commercial Voice]

This.

[Seth Payne]

This one is, like, usually the top 100 is whatever. I just. I've never liked that. I just. I think it's just such a bogus pol. This one, the ESPN rankings. I think even if people disagree with it, this is the one where I felt from the fan base over the last few days, just almost a deflation amongst themselves, where we've been propping ourselves up, propping ourselves up, talking oursel back into CJ Stroud and like, look, you just need this. You just need that. And I. And I still believe in a lot of that, but it almost felt like confirmation. I would have rather heard people say, they're like, nope, he's done. Like, I would have liked to hear executives or coaches say, no, he's done. He's never. He's never going to be anything. He's going to be trash. Because then I could be defiant against that.

[Commercial Voice]

The.

[Seth Payne]

The fact that they're just indifferent and just aren't even really thinking about them, that's somehow even more. That's more deflating and in scary because it's the. I think it's the genuine reality of the deal. Like Fowler. Fowler is trustworthy in my minds, in terms of, like, this is a guy that's got a good relationship with a lot of NFL people, and they're giving him honest opinions and everything, and they're just flat out not talking about C.J. stroud.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, yeah. Indifferent is. That is a big buzzword. And I said, like, even in our industry here, that's a huge thing. You want to be, I guess, divisive, for lack of a better phrase. It's the classic from the Howard Stern movie where, you know, they figured out that the people that hated Howard Stern listened twice as much. So you either want them to hate you or love you, but you want them to have an opinion about you. If someone's indifferent, they're not even thinking about you. You're even worse off, I would say, than. Than someone saying, oh, no, he's not very good, or, he's not bad. He's not good enough. If they're indifferent, they're not even thinking about you. It's like the famous line in the book, what the Fountainhead, where there's an architect, Howard Roark, and the newspaper columnist is very critical of this architect over and over and over again. And they finally meet, and the columnist says, like, so what do you think of me? And the architect says, I don't, and walked away. And it's kind of similar of like, you know, you want to be thought of and to hear that word indifferent. And it's tough for a guy who, you know, just two years ago as a rookie was towards the tops of the league.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, that's. I didn't know that else is. I wonder if that's where they, they lifted that. And there's a, there's a famous scene in Mad Men where Don Draper says, I don't think about you at all, which was a lie because he totally thought about that character all. Did he lift that from Ayn Rand? Was that a Fountainhead reference?

[Luke Morrow]

I guess so.

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[Luke Morrow]

It's the famous line from that.

[Seth Payne]

I knew Don Draper was a libertarian.

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I always.

[Luke Morrow]

I always love that idea too.

[Commercial Voice]

Like that.

[Luke Morrow]

I think that is the best thing you could say to somebody. Someone that's been critical or think that, you know, they're on your mind.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah.

[Nate Tice]

Yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

I don't think about you at all.

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[Seth Payne]

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[Luke Morrow]

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[Luke Morrow]

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[Seth Payne]

I think the the that part of it. Yeah. You'd much rather your quarterback be hated because he's won so much. You'd love to. I'd love to be in a position where people are screaming about whether or not C.J. stroud is overrated. The way that People get in arguments about whether Tom Brady is overrated because it comes from a position of people hating him because he won so much. And they're just not in that situation right now. Particularly, like, even after last year, it's really, really easy for people to just put all the blame for that playoff loss on C.J. stroud and C.J. stroud alone. You know, we've talked for months now about all the different nuances and everything, but the sum total is that, yeah, like, for whatever reason or explanation there is, the sum total of it all leads to your quarterback hasn't performed at the same level as everybody else, whether he does. Now, Jeremy Fowler, elsewhere in this interview did point out that look like these guys move up and down every year. You know, Jalen Hurts has been in the top 10 now. He's out of the top 10 other guys that, you know, Jaden Daniels is still in the top 10. It so didn't get punished for whatever last year was, or at least he's just outside the top 10. He's somewhere right around there in the periphery. But like, if Jaden Daniels were to stay completely healthy this year and then not be as impressive as he was his rookie year again, then there's a really good chance he slides out of it going into next year.

[Luke Morrow]

I'm going to circle back to Jeremy Fowler, but first, I do want to get to this next piece of audio and get your thoughts on this, Seth, because Greg Cassell, who you know is considered one of the more elevated minds in the football space, he watches a lot of film. He breaks it down. He was on a podcast. Here we go again. I don't know what podcast, don't ask me. But he was on some podcast.

[Seth Payne]

He was on Ross Tucker's podcast.

[Luke Morrow]

Was that where it was? I know he does a lot of appearances. Anyways, here's Greg Cosell where he made the case that he thinks watching the film, the game is too fast for Stroud. Here's what Cassell said.

[Greg Cosell]

I mean, C.J. i can only go by watching tape. I don't know what's in his head. But CJ Stroud has become a quarterback that plays incredibly fast. His mental and physical processes become speeded up way too soon. He perceives pressure that's often not there when he can't play in rhythm. You can almost see his body language in the pocket. Everything becomes faster. I thought Troy Aikman spoke about it really well during the telecast. The last two years have been difficult. They've got to figure out what it is you Know, if he's the guy, you know, he's going into his fourth year, but the last two years, for the most part, with few exceptions, he's not been a comfortable player. Everything's happening too fast for him.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, I think that for one, I saw that same tweet where that clip was and that was from this was from a while ago on the Ross Tucker podcast. Because we had actually played this a couple months ago or so and it might have been like directly after the playoffs. But the guy that posted it, he did that dirty thing where he posts a clip of a video but then put some quotes in it. He put some quotes in his post that aren't actually in the video. So this Scott Barrett guy, he write, he put quote, the game is moving too fast for him. They need to take protections off his plate. And that's that's not what he said. That's not what Craig Cassell said at all. It was, it was really weird. It's just that dirty little social media engagement bait thing that people are doing. Yeah, this was, this was Greg Cassell also talked about this a few weeks ago on the Ross Tucker podcast and talking about the difficulties of handling a scheme change going from Bobby Sloakes scheme to the New England style system.

[Greg Cosell]

They could not run the ball. Now it's always easy to say, well, Stroud's not been great because the run game's bad. And obviously there is a correlation. I'm not going to sit here and say there's no correlation. But they brought in David Montgomery and they revamped their entire offensive line. They're going to have three or four new starters. Okay. They brought in Braden Smith to play right tackle. Wyatt Teller, who for a couple of years there in Cleveland was as good a left guard as there was in a league, particularly in the gap scheme run game as a puller. Keelan Rutledge, who played guard, the rookie out of Georgia Tech, he'll probably play center. So they're going to have a brand new offensive line and ideally at least a serviceable run game. And David Montgomery is one of those backs. He's a. You know, it's so funny. People always talk about backs being special and all that, but you know what? You don't have to have a special back to have a consistent, sustaining run game.

[Seth Payne]

Okay, I mislabeled that. That's not the quote. There was another where he talked about the difficulty of transitioning to a New England style system where you do have to youo are responsible for the coverages and Everything. Sorry about that, Ben. That's my fault.

[Luke Morrow]

Cassell's just throwing us out of whack.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, but like that part of it. So the fake quote that the guy who posted that I think was trying to paint that like somehow CJ's like, you know, he can't handle this. He needs to take it. That's not what Cassell said at all. And I watch every Cassell interview I can find. I don't recall him ever saying anything like that. That's more the opinion of the person who posted it. The. The point that I would make and the Cassell has made is that it's not so simple. You know, there was like Tom Brady and the level at which he operated. People love to throw clips of him from 2011 and later on where he is just this complete conductor of an orchestra at the line of scrimmage and act like that's what he was like back when they won their first couple of Super Bowls. And it wasn't like that was a transition and a process and it took a lot of time to get him to that point. And any quarterback's going to have some difficulties doing that. One thing that Josh McDaniels did last year in teaching Drake May that New England style system was that he knew how to do it in palatable or, you know, bite sized chunks, that you can bring it along and you got it. You can do certain things, but you can't add too much to the quarterback's plate. And he's had a lot of experience doing that with young quarterbacks. Nikkaley hasn't had as much experience doing that with young quarterbacks. He's been, you know, in the building in New England as they've worked with quarterbacks. But as an offensive coordinator, he hasn't been that guy. And then he went to the Rams and he's, you know, working with Matt Stafford, who, what are you going to teach him? So I think that's a part of it. It's not just CJ Stroud, it's Nick Cayley working with CJ Stroud and those two as a duo, learning a lot of hard lessons about how to teach and integrate that system onto an offense with a young quarterback. So that part of it, it should be better this year just because he's got time in the system, but it's not a. It's not a guarantee that it's definitely going to be where it needs to be.

[Luke Morrow]

By the way, we need timestamps on all these videos because there's another one that went viral yesterday of CJ Stroud talking about, like, the difference between women in Houston and California. But you could tell that one's old because he still has the long hair in that video.

[Seth Payne]

But that was from after his rookie year, or it might have been before his rookie year. It was definitely like either right before or right after his rookie year is on the Boardroom podcast.

[Luke Morrow]

But it's been making the rounds again, like, as if people think it's a

[Seth Payne]

new clip, but even though his hair is long. Right, right.

[Luke Morrow]

So that's the giveaway. So when Greg Cassell goes on the Ross Tucker podcast week, you don't know if this is a new clip or an old clip. And when people share it around, like, he just said this on his latest appearance. We need to put date on every video on Twitter. So, you know, oh, this is from January when he said, okay, I want

[Seth Payne]

to say, you know what I want to say that that clip, the first clip we played from Cassell, I went back and knowing that I've mislabeled some things this morning, take this with a grain of salt, but I want to say that that clip, the first clip we played was actually from October. Oh, my gosh, past season. So, like, I mean, he said similar things after the season. So it's not necessarily. That doesn't, that doesn't date the reference. But yeah, that one with C.J. stroud, man, you know what that was a reminder of? CJ's come a long way in just knowing when to shut up. He talked. I remember his rookie year even before he had ended up, you know, ranking himself in the top 5 of quarterbacks or anything. Like, even before his rookie season, I remember talking with Sean about how, like, he's going to, he's going to get himself in trouble at some point because it's awesome that he's willing to talk. But sometimes as a quarterback, you just need to cut it off and not say too much. And then, lo and behold, after that first season, he's, he's, he's talking smack. He's putting himself in the top five QB rankings and everything. There's certain things that as a quarterback, you just don't have to answer or talk about. And I would include in that, doing two minutes on why LA women are better than Houston women. And you know what, the other part about that clip, though, I'll get retroactively upset about this. In that clip, C.J. was talking about why LA women are better than Houston women, and he brings up like the just the difference in options or whatever. And he brings up Inland Empire and he brings up San Diego, where I'm like, okay, it's cool, it's all Southern California, I get it. But then he brings up Oakland, like, all right, well, wait a second. You can't go all the way up to Oakland and include that in la women. And talking about the diversity of different types of women in California. In la, if you're then comparing it to the city of Houston, I'll get. I don't care how old the clip is. What the hell are you talking about?

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, that's right. I know he went on that whole, like, even after the rookie season, he went on like a whole media tour and everything. And it's almost like the studious girl in high school that finally, you know, she like, she comes back from one summer vacation and now suddenly she's considered attractive. And it's just like, you just love all that attention and the spotlight. But it reminds me of Doug Peterson after he won a Super bowl at the Eagles. Wrote a book along the lines of like, how I won a Super Bowl. And he went on a book tour that whole off season was talking about how he beat Bill Belichick and how he's this great. And then long story short, he went 10 games under.500 the rest of his career. It's like, you know, congrats on winning the super bowl, but let's get back to work instead of talking about how great you are all off season.

[Seth Payne]

It's like when you see a 29 year old write their memoirs, you know, like, all right, just give us a little time, buddy. Yeah, you haven't even been addicted to heroin yet. Yeah, like, give me something. Give me something meaty that I can read about.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, come on. You don't know what it is going back to Jeremy Fowler because I did find this interesting. We're starting. We are starting. Despite all the CJ Stroud consternation and in, in the media, we are starting to get some national media members that are coming around pretty highly on the Texans because I've been making the case all off season that I feel like the Texans are still underrated despite the quarterback concerns. I heard Aaron shots this morning say that his the Texans are his pick to win the afc, which we played previously, but. But he has them ranked as the best DVOA team in the afc. Anyways, here was Jeremy Fowler that saying, if the Texans can just figure this one thing out, they can win the super bowl this year. Here was Fowler.

[Jeremy Fowler]

I think the offense he's had changes. You go from OC Bobby Slowik to Nick Kaylee. Like, they need to be able to run the ball and simplify some things for him. And once they do, his arm talent and his ability can take over. But let's be honest, Dan, I mean, Houston and I'm doing this top 10 series, they have the best defense in the league. They have talent on offensive, rebuilt their offensive line. If they can run the ball, they probably, I mean, I think they'll win the Super Bowl. Like, I think they have that kind of team. And if they do that, then that changes things for C.J. stroud in a big way.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, I don't. You know, they say that. And yet again, there is Jalen Hurts ranked 17th or 18th.

[Luke Morrow]

That's true.

[Seth Payne]

Top 20 quarterbacks.

[Luke Morrow]

Good point.

[Seth Payne]

I don't know. Like, I would like. All right, how much does it change? I think the most encouraging thing is at one point, Fowler lays out just how the. There's so many super bowl worthy quarterbacks right now. If you think about the fact that, like, whether you, whether you think they're good enough in the old school sense of the word or whatever it is, like the, or whether it's just, you know, teams need to be more complete and well balanced and the super bowl, the quarterback position doesn't matter as much as it used to be. That you look through any of the guys who received votes in this ranking of quarterbacks and you can see, okay, yeah, like, you go outside of the top 10 and you know, okay, let's see. Sam Darnold finished 11th in that ranking. Yeah, I think he could win a Super bowl with him. If memory serves correctly. You know, Jaden Daniels, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, like, I go through those guys and say, yeah, I can certainly see those guys in the, in a certain situation winning a Super Bowl. You know, if the packers defense improves, you know, like, you do a few of these different. And those guys are plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts was 17th in this list and he's won a Super bowl himself. Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, CJ Stroud received the fewest number of points in this poll. And like Bo Nix, very arguably, if Bo Nix was healthy for that playoff game, that he could have been in the Super Bowl.

[Luke Morrow]

Here's the weird thing that I feel conflicted on, because as I've been saying, I think the Texans should be one of the favorites of the afc. Even if Stroud plays like they just did in the regular season last year, even if it's just an average offense. They should be able to win the afc. But then with these lists coming out, which Jeremy Fowler is, you know, heavily involved in these lists, and he's the one that just had that audio that he even referenced. Like, if you look at these top 10 lists, but here's my problem, here's where I'm going. All this is when you look at these top 10 lists, yes, they have a linebacker number six, and yes, they have two cornerbacks in the top 11, and they have two defensive ends in the top six. That's all grade. But like, Dalton Schultz wasn't on there. David Montgomery wasn't on there. No offensive lineman was there. Despite 44 offensive linemen getting votes, C.J. stroud is ranked 20th. Like we're not even talking about trying to be, or I should say having average players on offense. These are guys that aren't even ranked. Montgomery was ranked outside of the top 20. Stroud was ranked, you know, whatever, 20th. Like these are theoretically bottom third of the league at their position. And yet I guess it's a credit to the defense that I still feel like, yeah, but you know, this team's still good enough to win the afc.

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[Seth Payne]

It's that good of a defense. I think that the part about it, that's the part about it that I, you know, rankle against a little bit when it comes to, like, hey, you don't have to have a great offense or anything. People will say, well, look at Sam Darnold, like, all right, I mean, right? But Sam Darnold played a lot differently than C.J. stroud last year. But going into last season, Jackson Smith and Jigba and Cooper cup were not thought of as all that electrifying of a number one and number two wide receiver on that football team. People didn't know what Jackson Smith and Jigba was going to look like when he went, when he had to play more outside. And it looked pretty damn good. That's where, you know, credit Clint Kubiak for getting the absolute most out of those guys. You know, Kenneth Walker was, he's too injury prone. He's not consistent enough. He's not enough of a receiving threat. Like, there were a lot of things about that offense that you could look at in the preseason and say, like, I don't know about this. I don't know what they expect to do offensively. And the sum total of the entire unit was that they played pretty damn well. So that part of it, I try to, you know, I try to remind myself of that. But also remember that, yeah, the majority of teams where you say, like, I wouldn't get that excited about these guys on offense, yeah, they don't give you any reason to get excited about during the season. Don't look at the fantasy Football rankings if you don't have to when it comes to the offensive skill position players for the Texans, just don't look at the fantasy football rankings.

[Luke Morrow]

I can't help it.

[Seth Payne]

Just show up and let the computer make your selections. Okay. On draft day.

[Luke Morrow]

I just read an article yesterday of fantasy football putting the running backs in tears, and they had Montgomery in Tier 7. I didn't know they would go that far.

[Seth Payne]

That's a really understandable one, though, partly just because of the two running back dynamic.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, yeah, fair.

[Seth Payne]

That's what I'm telling myself on that one.

[Luke Morrow]

Pro Football Focus just ranked Montgomery as the 26th best running back in the league. So, you know, that's bottom seven. So, yeah, the rankings have not been kind for the offense.

[Seth Payne]

I think honestly, Montgomery. Montgomery doesn't have to be a top 10 running back in the league. He just needs to be really good in short yardage situations and he needs to be, you know, consistently getting positive yardage. And a lot of that just falls back to the offensive line. I mean, so many. There's so many. I've usually got a rule of like, okay, if. Once you get to the third, if you're really reaching, because it's, you know, it's that parlay thinking. It's how Bill o' Brien was a general manager, you know, like, well, if this deal works out and if this guy exceeds expectations and if. And if we give this guy more money than we should and then you get seven ifs down the line and you're like, okay, this is magical thinking here. It's like, you can't rely on this many ifs. There are a lot of ifs on the Texans offense right now. But if I, if I get it down to one, if it's the offensive line, and it's as simple as that, it's that if the offensive line is. Is definitively improved, then everything else improves by extension. And without saying that, no, they become the best offense in football or anything. It's just. That's just simple logic that the offensive line made it a lot harder to operate for every other position on the field last year. If they are better, if they're genuinely better, then there. There aren't a whole lot of ifs after that. It'll be an improved offense.

[Luke Morrow]

And speaking of which, I found this interesting from Nate Tice. And this is on the Athletic Football Show, I think they call it something like that. It's Nate Tice's podcast and they do a great job. And Nate Tice.

[Seth Payne]

Oh, no, that's Not Nate Tice anymore. That's, that's Robert Mays. Nate Tice left. So okay, something else he's. I think Nate Tice's podcast is the 301.

[Luke Morrow]

Maybe that's what it is. I'm just going to continue this shtick

[Seth Payne]

of just, just now he might have been on Robert Mays podcast. I think he used to be co hosts. Then Tice left so he might have been on Robert Mays the Athletic football.

[Luke Morrow]

Okay, here's Nate Tice on the Steve Wilkos show. He's talking about what makes an effective run game. And I think this is, is a good piece of. This is an interesting piece of audio when we try to compare it to the Texans. Here's what Nate Tice said.

[Nate Tice]

Some of these top offense, packers were in seventh, Lions eighth, Dolphins 10th. But you, you can't take penalties. And I saw that a lot of offenses, they are. Sorry a lot of referees clamped down on offenses at the line of scrimmage, especially recently, especially this last year. And I think this is where this is cheap yards or losing cheap yards I guess is the best way to put it. Or giving cheap yards to the defense. And so I think it sounds stupid but there's a lot of tough to be said that some of the best running teams are the least penalized teams because they're the smartest teams and they know what they're getting. So penalties happen when, you know, players footwork. When I think of penalties I just think of holdings and like false starts. Maybe it's my dad, you know, just like I don't think it opi, you know anything like that. But it's like these ones that are controllable or at least manageable and I really do see that the best teams are the ones not shooting themselves in the foot over and over and over. This is where I think the Bears you could see the first four or five, six weeks and the Jaguars, I'd use them, use them as another example, work through their kinks and we're able to get into this heavily. You know, super, you know, like hyper specific game plans with a lot of motion, a lot of shifting, a lot of formation change or like the Jaguars and the Rams super packaged plays with long wordy play calls. They were able to get better in the second half of the year and then not put themselves in such bad situations. So even teams that got better I think that you can look at there's just their pre snap penalties and just see that get better or just maybe their offensive penalties I should say But I really do think this is important and I know this is old school, but it's something that's really stood out to me. It's like, it's frustrating to see a lot of teams just not know what they're getting with defenses and hold or get illegal or illegal shift penalties and just stuff because the ride receivers don't know the second play call, which was the Jaguars in the first two months of the season. So it's very cool to see some of the teams get better and then it become tangible and I think pre snap and manageable penalties is one of those instances.

[Seth Payne]

The that was on the Athletic Football show. You're crying. We had about 30 minutes of conversation or 30 seconds of conversation that we didn't need to have. So I think the biggest thing about that is that I remember Dom Capers. That was one of the big things he always used to say is more games are lost than one in the NFL. And people would be dismayed sometimes to go into a meeting room and see how many mental errors actually are. Like how many times mental errors are the reason your team lost the game. Look, we saw it last year with C.J. gardner Johnson and some of his coverage gaffes. Ultimately you find out through some very quick, very rapidly timed leaks in the media after CJ Gardner Johnson was released that some CJ Gardner Johnson mental errors or technique errors, response to coverage errors were the reason the Texans, or at least a huge reason the Texans lost those first three games on offense. I think that that goes back to a lot of what they're trying to do offensively. It's, it's. Whenever you add complexity, what ends up happening is guys make mental errors. You do have penalties. Everything that Nate Tice said right there about the Jaguars and those other teams I think I agree with. It's that it's easier said than done and it looks great on the whiteboard, but there are a lot of, there are a lot of moving parts to be able to operate that way and how quickly you can get it all working together makes a big, big difference. And like last year, things were just gunky. The, the best example of it was the Titans game when Jeffrey Simmons had that sack of C.J. stroud. Remember, it was the fastest sack all year in the NFL because nobody blocked him. It looked like they were running. It looked like there were three different plays being run by different players on the offense. You had four offensive linemen blocking the other defensive tackle. That wasn't Jeffrey Simmons. And that's the kind of stuff you get when you're just not operating pre snap that well and they got better at it as the season went along. But you know, obviously there was a lot about the offense. It still wasn't ready. The hope is that, yeah, now that they've got all those kinks out, they can, they can look more like a team that's not shooting themselves in the foot all the time.

[Luke Morrow]

So that's an interesting perspective and honestly not what I had thought of because obviously you know better than me. You played in the NFL, you were in these locker rooms. Maybe it's unfair of me, but I always hold if a team is often penalized, I always hold that against the head coach. And it's been one of my biggest complaints under d' Amico where I just looked this up. The Texans were second in penalties his first year. They've been getting better, fifth in year number two, 11th this past year in penalties. So still something that needs to be improved for this team. But I'll be honest, I never did consider the fact of at least when it comes to those pre snap penalties on offense that maybe it's just more so about the new offense.

[Seth Payne]

It's tough because whenever you slice into. I used to do this as a player because Tom Coughlin was huge on the penalties and everything that Nate Tice just said, like Tom Coughlin's probably aggressive, would be aggressively nodding his head in agreement and yet at the same time he would always put up these, he would put up these charts where he'd show the least penalized teams and you'd be like. And like, without fail, there are at least a few of them that were bad teams. And then there were a few of the most penalized teams that were really good teams. Like the correlation isn't tight or as simple, but I think when you start breaking it down to like what Nate Tice was saying with the pre snap penalties and everything, you can probably start to find them out some more consistent trends. I thought the thing that he's mentioned in there about the pre snap motion and the audible izing and all of that, I think the, the big takeaway from that, and I'm glad he said it, was that we all want a boatload of pre snap motion. We all want these modernized NFL offenses and everything. I think sometimes people forget that it's not as simple as just saying, hey, this is what we're going to draw up and we're going to have three different motions before the play and then we're going to check to a different. We're Going to check to the third play call we had in the huddle. Like, every time you add another wrinkle of complexity to it, there's also a much greater chance for a mental error or penalty. And that's where it does come down to the coaching, Luke. But it's not as. Sometimes it's not as simple as just like, oh, you need to be more disciplined about this, or you need to yell about it more. It's really about how well are you teaching it and how well are you practicing it. So when you get into a game, guys are relying on their technique, and they're not overly thinking or wondering what they're supposed to be doing. That all starts with the coordinators and how they're actually operating in practice. The one that. The thing that still bothers me to this day was that. That Tommy Togi illegal motion down on the goal line at the end of the year. Do you remember when Tommy Togi was the fullback?

[Luke Morrow]

Yes.

[Seth Payne]

And after the game, C.J. stroud said, you know, we hadn't practiced at full speed, and, you know, it was like, we thought we. Something along those lines. I'm like, well, all right. Like, are we really doing this? Really? Just. Just throwing a. Just throwing a defensive lineman back there at fullback and hoping for the best. I don't. I don't understand that. And I just. That's.

[Jeremy Fowler]

That's.

[Seth Payne]

That kind of freaked me out because it makes me wonder, like, all right, what the hell is Nick Haley doing as coordinator that you guys are. You guys are trying to add these wrinkles and barely practicing a play that ends up getting penalized during the game.

[Luke Morrow]

Right? I'm with you. I have a vague memory of a team. I don't know who it was. Cowboys, Bears, Lions, somebody I think was a national game. Cause I remember texting about it with friends recently where they put, like, the fullback in to hand him the football at the goal line, and he fumbled. And I think afterwards, after the game, he said, like, yeah, we never practiced that.

[Jeremy Fowler]

Like, we just.

[Luke Morrow]

Not the fullback, I should say, a different position put in as the fullback to try to have him run it in. And.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, anyways, the problem is there are a bunch of stories also from guys like Tom Brady where they'll say, you know what? We ran that in practice three times and three times and it never worked. But then we got in the game and it worked perfectly. And what people forget about those types of stories is that it's Tom freaking Brady, okay? Like, that's the. Like, okay, There's a certain There's a certain level of expectations you have with some quarterbacks, especially when they're veterans, than when you're a team that's just trying to figure things out. So going back to just like the coach being responsible for penalties, that's always the hardest balance is how do you figure out how much complexity to add? Like, how much can my team handle right now? Because if you go out there and all you want is perfect execution and you say we're only going to run two plays because we need to have perfect execution. Okay, cool. You'll execute them well, but you're gonna get your ass kicked because you're so predictable. But then you. So you like, all right, we gotta add a little bit more complexity, but we gotta be sure we can operate well. So it's always. And like, I don't envy coaches for having to try to find that balance because there's never a perfect. There's never a perfect balance, but it's always like, all right, we gotta execute well, but we also have to be diverse. Just how much can we handle right now? And I don't like honestly, last year the Texans couldn't handle a whole bunch of.

[Luke Morrow]

Well, that was a good old football conversation. Get into the to the the depths of it about CJ Stroud and this offense coming up. I might be a day late on this, but after watching the Home Run Derby, I worry about the Netflix Ification of sports. We'll talk about that next.

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[Seth Payne]

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