Is the Texans Offense Poised for a Breakout This Season?

Summary

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Payne & Pendergast - Episode Summary

"Is the Texans Offense Poised for a Breakout This Season?"
Date: July 10, 2026
Hosts: Seth Payne (former NFL player), Luke Morrow (in for Sean Pendergast)
Theme:
The episode zeroes in on the Houston Texans' offensive potential for the 2026 NFL season. Set against the backdrop of national analysts predicting which teams might break out offensively, the hosts dissect what needs to change—and whether the Texans are truly primed to make the leap.

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Main Discussion: Are the Texans Ready to Break Out?

(01:31–07:53)

• The Athletic’s Prediction:
  The conversation kicks off with mention of Ted Nguyen from The Athletic naming Houston as one of five NFL offenses poised for a breakout.

  • Luke Morrow notes the Texans' inclusion is cause for optimism:
    "If you were to pick five teams that could break out offensively this year, I do think the Texans seem like a pretty obvious choice in the sense of like their potential because obviously what we saw from Stroud that rookie year..." (05:00)

• Offensive Line Overhaul:
  Payne highlights Nguyen’s focus on Houston’s revamped offensive line:

  • He quotes the data:
    "The Texans ranked 30th in ESPN's pass block win rate and 32nd in run block win rate. But Caserio overhauled the offensive line this offseason adding three new potential starters…" (02:57)
  • Payne’s analysis:
    "Every single guy they signed on the offensive line has that profile… Even if only 50% of them work out, you're going to have that many more guys that are actually adequate or plus run blockers than you had last year." (04:22)

• David Montgomery’s Impact:
  The hosts agree the addition of running back David Montgomery is a major upgrade.

  • Seth Payne:
    "That's a massive upgrade for the Texans running back room." (04:57)
  • Montgomery is expected to help especially in the red zone and short-yardage situations.

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Key Points in the Path to Improvement

(05:41–09:08)

• Red Zone Woes and Simple Fixes:
  Payne urges listeners not to overstate how deep the Texans’ issues ran last year.

  • "It's not that big of a leap if you just do one thing—like, one thing alone, improving your red zone offense, and all of a sudden they're a markedly different offense.” (06:12)
  • The run game is the primary focus:
    "If you can figure out the run game alone, that should make you a better red zone offense, that should make you a better short yardage offense." (06:38)

• Temper Expectations:
  Both hosts caution that while improvement is likely, becoming an elite offense is a much bigger step.

  • Payne:
    "On paper right now, I'm confident they're going to be a better offense. I just don't... I'm not confident that they're going to be a genuinely good offense, though." (07:01)
  • Morrow observes they don’t need to be top tier:
    "They don't need to be like a top 10 offense. I mean, they weren't last year and still should have been in the Super Bowl." (07:29)

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Comparing the Texans with Other "Breakout" Candidates

(10:19–12:52)

• The hosts review the other four teams from the article (Saints, Chargers, Broncos, Jaguars).
  • For the Jaguars, Payne interjects skepticism:
    "They ended up being the sixth best scoring offense in the league. I feel like they shouldn't be in the category of potential breakout, because…unless what you think is…we've only seen a half season of it for the Jaguars.” (11:22)
  • Morrow expresses typical NFL caution:
    "I always do have that concern of a coach that does well in year one—now teams have a full offseason to prepare." (12:08)

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National Perception: Respect at Last?

(12:52–14:59)

• Insider Buzz (Cameron Wolfe, NFL Network):
  The hosts play audio from analyst Cameron Wolfe painting the Texans as possible Super Bowl contenders.

  • Patrick (NFLN):
    "Don't be surprised if the Houston Texans are in the Super Bowl next year. That's really the buzz that I've been hearing around the league. They've already got a defense that is elite…The offense wasn't physical enough…this is a prove it year for CJ Stroud..." (13:33)
  • Cameron’s highlight:
    • Praises O-line signings, addition of rookie Keelan Rutledge, and David Montgomery as moves towards greater “physicality.”
    • Notes a DC said “it looked like CJ Stroud had too much on his plate last year.”

• Managing Stroud's Workload and Nick Haley’s Growth:
  Payne compares the development of the Texans' young QB/offensive coordinator pairing to what the Patriots did with Drake May and Josh McDaniels.

  • Payne:
    "This was Nick Haley’s first crack at it, and...he’s learned how to be an offensive coordinator, he’s also learned working with a young quarterback who’s trying to learn a brand new system." (15:37)
  • Points out the usual second-year improvement as both coordinator and QB settle into their roles.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the O-Line Rebuild:
  "I think by and large most of the people that talk about the Texans offensive line and the additions, they're confident that it's going to be improved..." — Seth Payne, (03:40)
• Realistic Optimism:
  "It's not that big of a leap if you just do one thing—like, one thing alone, improving your red zone offense..." — Seth Payne, (06:12)
• Montgomery’s Impact:
  "David Montgomery running behind last year's offensive line would have been a better red zone offense." — Seth Payne, (06:50)
• Super Bowl Buzz:
  "Don't be surprised if the Houston Texans are in the Super Bowl next year. That's really the buzz that I've been hearing around the league." — Patrick, NFL Network, (13:33)

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Timestamps of Key Segments

• 01:31 – Beginning of substantive discussion: Is the Texans offense poised for a breakout?
• 02:12–04:57 – In-depth O-line assessment and David Montgomery's signing
• 05:41 – Red zone and run game keys to improvement
• 07:29 – How good does the offense actually need to be?
• 10:19–12:52 – Comparison to other “breakout” offense candidates and scrutiny of the Jaguars
• 13:33–14:59 – Analyst Cameron Wolfe/NFLN says Texans are Super Bowl contenders if the offense gets tougher
• 15:37 – Managing workload for CJ Stroud; lessons from New England

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Conclusion

The episode provides an insightful, balanced assessment of the Texans’ offensive prospects for 2026. While both hosts see tangible reasons for hope—the rebuilt O-line, the Montgomery acquisition, Nick Haley’s and CJ Stroud’s anticipated growth—they maintain healthy skepticism about an immediate leap into the league’s offensive elite. National analysts’ growing respect for Houston is acknowledged, but the point is clear: meaningful improvement hinges primarily on becoming a more physical, well-balanced unit, especially on the ground and in the red zone. Fans have a right to be excited, but tempered expectations might be wise for now.

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Transcript

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[Luke Morrow]

Is the Texans offense poised to break out in 2026? It's Payne and Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow in for Sean alongside Seth Payne. 713-572-4610. To text the show, you can weigh in on that idea. Also get to us in the YouTube and Twitch chats as well. But we've been talking a lot about the Texans offense today, the quarterback and whatnot, and there was at least one positive piece put out with the Athletics doing where they looked at five offenses that they believe are positioned to break out this year and the Texans were one of those five. Now the Jaguars are also on the list, but the Texans are on the list which might make Texans fans feel hopeful and happy.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, and this is actually I like this because it comes from Ted Winn, who is one of the one of the writers that watches a lot of film, you know, and has a pretty good understanding of the nuts and bolts and the X's and O's of football. So when he gives he's not typically just throwing out a bunch of hot takes or whatever. Remember we read that article earlier that just out of nowhere said that Nikkaley is an above average play caller and left it at that. They were like. And you're left to wonder what, what exactly are you talking like where do you get that from? I'm not even saying he's bad or anything. I just thought you can't just leave that there. So Ted Win isn't he's going to be a little bit more detailed than that. And I thought the thing that I felt most intrigued by in this I think was basically it sounded like he was pretty confident that the changes on the offensive line are going to work. You know, he said it's hard to overcome. Well, he actually talks about Nick Haley. He says as a play caller it's hard to overcome One of the worst offensive lines in the league that struggled to run block and pass protect. The Texans ranked 30th in ESPN's pass block win rate and 30 seconds in the run block win rate. But Sterio overhauled the offensive line this offseason adding three new potential starters, etc. Etc. But he ends up he said how much he how much area anti ursary improves will be a key for this offense. But I think sometimes it's easy to just think oh, because you got new starters and it's going to be better. I think by and large most of the people that talk about the Texans offensive line and the additions, they they're confident that it's going to be improved offensive line without saying it's going to be a good, good offensive line, it's going to be at least improved from one of the worst in the league. And I think part of it is that for me the fact that they followed a very specific theme and what kinds of players they wanted to add to the offense that in and of itself made me feel like they have more of a plan on how to fix the offense this year. And they've identified exactly what they just absolutely have to get better at run blocking and they have to be better at running back to, to to give CJ some help and then everything else can fall into place and they're not saying you don't have to improve anywhere else. But that's by far the biggest factor, the biggest chunk improvement that you could make that should make it easier for CJ Stroud is simply figuring out a way to run the ball confidently. And I think that's every single guy they signed on the offensive line has that profile that Even if only 50% of them work out, I think you're going to have that. You're going to have that many more guys that are actually adequate or plus run blockers than you had last year.

[Luke Morrow]

And he also put in the article that he does like the addition of, of David Montgomery and thinks that, you know, that will help.

[Seth Payne]

I do like that's a massive upgrade for the Texans running back room.

[Luke Morrow]

Right. So that's big. I like how he starts the blurb on the Texans though, by saying, I get it. It's hard to believe the Texans have much hope on offense. So, but, but if you were to pick five, five teams that could break out offensively this year, I do think the Texans seem like a pretty obvious choice in the sense of like their potential because obviously what we saw from Stroud that rookie year, if they could just find a way to, to, to recapture that, then obviously this offense can certainly break out and be much improved. And sort of to your point with the offensive line, I mean, the bar is, is low enough that it won't take too much for it to be an improved offense or really could climb up the ranks, so to speak. So I think certainly, yeah, they are one of those offenses that could have a breakout.

[Seth Payne]

Well, the whole thing is that it's, I think when he says it's a, you know, it's a big, it's. It's hard to imagine them being a good offense or taking a big leap or whatever that even, even as I present Ted Win, as a guy that watches a lot of film and everything, I think that those, those playoff performances have so, so weighted people's opinion on what the Texans offense is or was last year. The, that they kind of forget that now they were a mediocre offense. Like they weren't, they weren't, they weren't the Raiders, you know, they weren't the Browns, they weren't the jets, you know, they weren't the Panthers for most of the season. But, but that's how they feel to a lot of people. And the fact of the matter is they were, they were a mediocre to below average, above average, wherever you want to say. They were right in that middle, you know, 30 percentile. And it's not that big of a leap if you just do one thing like one thing alone improving your red zone offense and all of a sudden they're a markedly different offense. Problem is that one thing requires like, oh, okay, well, if they're a better rushing football team, then that's the one thing that makes them a better red zone offense. Okay. But that means they also have to have a better offensive line and the tight ends have to block better and they've got to have better targets in the red zone and all that. Like. So there's a. There's a lot that goes into it. But if you can figure out the run game alone, that should make you a better red zone offense. That should make you a better short yardage offense. The addition of David Montgomery. David Montgomery running behind last year's offensive line would have been a better red zone offense, and it would have been a better short yardage offense. So it's on paper right now. I'm confident they're going to be a better offense. I don't know. I just don't. I'm also. I'm not confident that they're going to be a genuinely good offense, though.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Yeah. And, you know, as we've been talking throughout this off season, they don't need to be like a top 10 offense. I mean, they weren't last year and still should have been in the Super Bowl. So it's not like they have to jump all the way to that top tier of being with the Rams or Seahawks, of being one of the best offenses in the league. But any improvement, obviously, is going to help them be a better team and Montgomery should help them in the red zone because that's what he does.

[Seth Payne]

Well, the whole thing, the whole thing about the Seahawks comparison, you know, where I said earlier in the show, I feel like people are glossing over the fact that the Seahawks were the number three scoring offense in the league last year. It's, it's strange because they say, hey, look, that's a defense. That's a team that had a really good defense and an okay quarterback. Like, all right, look, you can say whatever you want about Sam Darnold. He wasn't, he didn't perform just like an okay quarterback last year. So it's. It. I think you got to be. You can be just. You don't have to be an awesome offense, but you can be an above average offense. Think about the counterpart to the, like the, the Patriots, and that just because Drake May was awful in the playoffs doesn't take away the fact that the offense was the second scoring offense in the league last year. In their defense, the Patriots defense, they were a lot better. I see a lot of people talking about the Patriots defense like it wasn't that good of a defense last year. There was a. They definitely got better as the year went along and some of their guys got healthier so there. But I would say it's fair to say that both teams were, were very balanced teams that you don't, you don't necessarily say that, like, okay, that they had to have this on the offensive side of the ball or they had to have this on the defensive side of the ball for it to work.

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[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, like you said, sort of like Stroud, where you forget anything else he did because of the playoffs for Drake May. I mean like he was the number one deep ball thrower in the league last year as a young quarterback. Wasn't as successful in the postseason, but yeah, that offense was a lot better than what we saw in the playoffs. Also on this list, the Saints in terms of this is from the athletic five offenses poised to break out this year. They the Saints as their quarterback goes from year one to year two and they added a bunch of pieces on the offensive line, the Chargers, who obviously brought in Mike McDaniel and a lot of people like that higher as their new offensive coordinator. You have the Denver Broncos take that Sean Payton. This offense, it's always been about the defense there in Denver, even though Sean Payton's an offensive Coach, the offense has never been all that spectacular. And then the other teams, Jacksonville Jaguars, which is obviously in the division. And as Ted points out, the Jaguars were number two in scoring after the bye week as they started to figure out this new offense for Liam Cohen. After some early struggles with penalties and dropped balls, they really hit their stride second half of the season.

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[Seth Payne]

Look, I hate to be sticking up for the Jaguars in this one, but there's a part of it where. All right, you're saying that this is a. This is one of the offenses that could break out. I mean, they were so good in the second half of the season. Season that they ended up being the sixth best scoring offense in the league. So I don't. I feel like. I feel like they shouldn't be in the category of potential breakout because they. I. Unless what you think is, all right, we've only seen a half season of it for the Jaguars. And for you to really believe in it, it's got to be that. Man, we've seen this out of Trevor Lawrence before, back with the Doug Peterson days where he had one half the second half of a season where it looked incredible. And of course, this is, this is going to be the guy that everybody thought we had. And then all of a sudden, you know, defense is caught up to exactly how they were trying to do it and didn't work out. So hot.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. So, yeah, we'll see if that's the case. I've said this before, I've said it numerous times, but I always do have that concern of a coach that does well in year one. Now teams have a full off season to prepare. Let's see if Liam Cohen can stay ahead of the curve here in game and in year two with that offense.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, like. Well, you know, Liam Cohen there. Liam Cohen and Shane Steichen are both guys that. They've done some really impressive things in their career, but just for a year or two with certain quarterbacks. So. Like Gardner Minshew and boy. Gardner Minshew had the best year of his career under Liam Cohen and some really good receivers, but still it was one year. And then Shane Steichen, it was. Was Jalen Hurts. He was the OC when Jalen Hurts had his best season. Cool. But then you don't get to see how it plays out over multiple years.

[Luke Morrow]

Right. Yeah, exactly. So we'll see. That's why I still have my questions about the Jags. I expect some natural regression, but we'll see. Ted thinks that, that, that could be a breakout offense. You could go find the list on the athletic of the five offenses that are positioned to break out, which does include the Texans. And boy, wouldn't that be music to our ears. So too might this Cameron Wolf of NFL Network. I was talking, I made, I pleaded my case earlier this week. I think it was on Monday of how I think the Texans are being overlooked and should be one of the favorites in the afc. And since then we've gotten some national media members really giving high praise to the Texans, including Cameron Wolfe on NFL Network, who's pretty high on these Texans.

[Seth Payne]

Can the offense be consistent enough and

[Susie Welch]

maybe physical enough for them to be contenders this year?

[Patrick (Sports Analyst)]

Absolutely, Patrick. Don't be surprised if the Houston Texans are in the super bowl next year. That's really the buzz that I've been hearing around the league. They've already got a defense that is elite, top three maybe best in football last year. Why were they not like Seattle? Why were they not like New England? The offense wasn't physical enough. The quarterback didn't play well enough in the play playoffs. And so this is a prove it year for CJ Stroud, who is awaiting a new contract. This is a prove it year for that offense. Can they get better in year two under Nick Haley, the offensive coordinator? They made a lot of moves this offseason to get physical like their defense is. And the two that I'm eyeing is an offensive line improvement, two or three new pieces, including their first round pick, Keelan Rutledge and David Montgomery. I haven't heard anything but good praise about David Montgomery, who should set up as their feature back. They believe that getting him going and getting that run game going will make things a lot easier for CJ Stroud. Talking to a defensive coordinator, he said that it looked like CJ Stroud had too much on his plate last year, from protections to trying to throw everything in difficult routes. Easier plays happen when your run game has good success and your offensive line has good protection. They should be much better in both areas and hopefully that allows CJ Stroud to be a lot more effective over the middle of the field with intermediate routes, something that he was really good at in his rookie year. And, and if he is, then maybe he can be back at the table next offseason for a contract conversation and say yesterday's price is not today's price and rack up.

[Seth Payne]

You know, that's one of the things that he mentioned in there about just CJ Having a lot on his plate in terms of operating that offense and all the different things you have to do I think that's where Josh McDaniels did a great job with Drake May this year where I don't think like Josh McDaniels he's worked with Mac Jones, he's worked with other young quarterbacks to see aside from Tom Brady where he's got a lot of experience figuring out how much to put on the quarterback's plate early on and the, you know, one of the things they're going to be watching in New England is okay does Drake May start to do more of the classic Josh McDaniels Patriots system type stuff. This was Nick Cayley's first crack at it and as he's learned how to be an offensive coordinator he's also learned working with a young quarterback who's trying to learn a brand new system. And that's, that's an explanation. It's not a guarantee that all of a sudden it's going to be better this year. But that is generally the way it goes. Is that that part of it, the mental side of it and just understanding on a in a complex scheme exactly how to operate as a quarterback. Some of it's just a matter of getting the reps doing it. And would would Josh McDaniels have done a better job installing the Josh McDaniels offense with a young quarterback than Nick Haley? Probably. I mean I'm going to go out on a flyer and say yeah, the same way Josh McDaniel. If you take Josh Mcdaniels back in time right now to work with a young Tom Brady, it'd probably be even better than what it already was in those first couple of years. So yeah, that part of it. I think him saying that a lot of people around the league are saying that. I think it's, I think there's a lot of people around the league that are still intrigued and high on CJ Stroud and that would love to have CJ Stroud in their building because every coach in the league thinks he's the guy that's going to figure out how to unlock a young quarterback. But it I think that tracks with everything else we've been hearing coming up.

[Luke Morrow]

Wrap things up on this Friday, catch up with the fellows of in the Loop. We got a big Astro series this weekend. But also, what is the most embarrassingly dumb thing you've ever done or said in a conversation with a person you were, you were trying to impress? We'll talk about that next. Payne and Pendergast.

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