What Does CJ Stroud Need to do to Get a Contract This Year?

Summary

Payne & Pendergast (Audacy) – Episode Summary Episode Title: What Does CJ Stroud Need to do to Get a Contract This Year?
Date: July 15, 2026
Hosts: Seth Payne & Luke Morrow (in for Sean Pendergast)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the Houston Texans' quarterback, CJ Stroud, and the essential factors—both individual and team-based—that will determine whether he lands a lucrative contract extension this year. Seth Payne and fill-in host Luke Morrow examine Stroud’s evolution as a quarterback, the importance of both personal performance and team success, and how comparisons to other quarterbacks (like Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield) illustrate current expectations around NFL quarterback contracts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL Top 100 List & the Value of On-Field Reputation

• NFL's Top 100 Voting Flaws (01:51–02:49)
  • Seth critiques the Top 100 player ranking methods, emphasizing underrepresentation of non-marquee positions (like offensive linemen) and the skewed nature of voting based on name recognition.
    • "Name recognition and everything goes a long way in these things." – Seth Payne (02:35)

2. Mobility and Quarterback Play: Lessons from Lamar Jackson

• Lamar's Decline and Its Relevance for Stroud (02:49–05:43)
  • Discussion of Lamar Jackson's statistical drop after reducing his rushing attempts and how injuries played a role.
  • Stroud post-concussion: a marked decline in scrambling and yardage per carry (from 5 ypc to 1 ypc).
    • "It wasn’t just that he didn’t run. It was that he just didn’t even scramble and was really reluctant to use his legs." – Seth Payne (04:19)
  • Modern NFL QBs are expected to be dual threats; reluctance to use legs can limit offensive potential, especially in playoffs.
  • Both hosts agree Stroud doesn’t need to be Lamar- or Vick-level, but some mobility is essential.

3. What Does Stroud Need, Individually and as a Team, to Get a Contract?

• Comparisons to League Precedents (06:41–08:48)

  • Winning a Super Bowl virtually assures a contract.
  • Team offensive success (consensus Top 10) is as important as individual stats—solid team play around a capable but perhaps not elite QB (e.g., Brock Purdy, Jimmy Garoppolo) is often good enough.
    • "For me, it’s almost about not CJ’s individual performance, but if they’re simply a top 10 offense, and it’s not because of a CJ collapse…then that’s…okay, give him the going rate for what the new quarterbacks are getting." – Seth Payne (08:14)
  • The danger of “chasing the ideal” at quarterback—sometimes you’re better sticking with a good, not perfect, fit.

• The Balance of Personal Performance vs. Team Success (11:58–12:59)

  • Strong numbers without wins may not suffice; both personal metrics and team record need to be positive.

    • "I feel like both boxes would need to be checked where you need Stroud to play well… [and] the team to be successful." – Luke Morrow (12:28)

  • The classic baseball manager line: "We could lose 100 games with you or without you, so why bother paying you…”—applies to QBs in the NFL too.

• Market Trends and Fiscal Logic:

  • Often, middling veteran QBs are paid ~$33M/year (Mayfield, Darnold), so clubs may feel less pressure to go big unless there’s clear evidence of next-level performance or clear upside/progress.
    • "If C.J. doesn’t give you a certain level of performance, what can I get out of a guy making $33 million a year?" – Seth Payne (09:23)

4. Grittiness, Attitude & Quarterback Perception

• Baker Mayfield: The Grudging Respect (13:11–19:24)
  • Discussion shifts to Baker Mayfield’s attitude as shown in the Netflix “Quarterback” series.
    • "Baker Mayfield is the classic guy that if he was on my team, I would think he’s just got the best attitude ever. But when he’s on an opposing team, he rubs me the wrong way…" – Seth Payne (18:16)
  • Memorable moments recalled from Baker’s trash talk and on-field grittiness, drawing parallels to beloved “villain” types in sports.
  • Reflection on how attitude and perceived toughness shape the narrative and contract leverage for quarterbacks.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the NFL Top 100:

  • "Name recognition and everything goes a long way in these things." – Seth Payne (02:35)

• On Stroud’s Post-Concussion Play:

  • "It wasn’t just that he didn’t run. It was that he just didn’t even scramble and was really reluctant to use his legs." – Seth Payne (04:19)

• On the Role of Team Success:

  • "For me, it’s almost about not CJ’s individual performance, but if they’re simply a top 10 offense, and it’s not because of a CJ collapse…then that’s…okay, give him the going rate for what the new quarterbacks are getting." – Seth Payne (08:14)
  • "I feel like both boxes would need to be checked where you need Stroud to play well… [and] the team to be successful." – Luke Morrow (12:28)

• On QB Contracts and Value:

  • "If C.J. doesn’t give you a certain level of performance, what can I get out of a guy making $33 million a year?" – Seth Payne (09:23)

• On Mayfield’s Attitude:

  • "Baker Mayfield is the classic guy that if he was on my team, I would think he’s just got the best attitude ever. But when he’s on an opposing team, he rubs me the wrong way." – Seth Payne (18:16)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:51–02:49: NFL Top 100 voting flaws and offensive line underrepresentation
• 02:49–05:43: Lamar Jackson comparison, and why Stroud’s reduced scrambling matters
• 06:41–08:48: What does Stroud/Texans offense need to accomplish for contract extension
• 09:23–11:07: Veteran QB contracts and lessons for team-building strategy
• 11:58–12:59: Why both Stroud’s stats and team record matter for his next contract
• 13:11–19:24: Baker Mayfield as a model of attitude/grittiness, and listener familiarity with famous sports trash talk

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Takeaways for Listeners

• Stroud’s path to a new contract hinges on both his continued individual development (health, willingness to use his legs, consistent improvement) and the offense’s overall performance (top 10 status, playoff success).
• Winning alone doesn't guarantee huge paydays; both perception and role within team success are key.
• The hosts offer relatable comparisons to current and former QBs, bringing humor and banter to deeper NFL business analysis.
• Intangibles—like toughness, on-field leadership, and attitude—matter in the locker room and might affect how fans and franchises view QB “value.”

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For Houston fans (and NFL followers), this episode provides both sharp, pragmatic insight and an entertaining ride through the contract calculus facing today’s marquee quarterbacks.

Transcript

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[Seth Payne]

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[Luke Morrow]

Prices may be higher for delivery. What does CJ Stroud need to do to get a contract this year? Talk about that here on Payne and Pendergast. I'm Luke Morrow in for Sean alongside Seth Payne, 713-572-4610 on the text line and also join the conversation in the YouTube and Twitch chats as well. Appreciate you hanging with us here on this Wednesday. Oh by the way, NFL just put out the latest person of the top 100 list, number 66 on the list. Drumroll. It's Drake London, wide receiver of the Falcons. Still waiting on CJ Stroud's name to be announced.

[Seth Payne]

You know, earlier I was ranting a little bit about how stupid the voting process is for the for the NFL top 100. They give players a ballot and have them list their top 20 players. So then there's all these guys that are ranked 50 through 100. That the difference might be that, you know, one person ranked this, one person in the NFL ranked this guy 19th overall or something like Bryce Young for instance, and he makes the top 50. Where there are a lot of other guys that might be more. You might put throw some of the names out, especially of guards and centers and other players at non marquee positions where people would be like oh, yeah, he's in the top 100, but they would never think to put him in the top 20. Those are the guys that get hosed last year. I think there were only. I think there were eight offensive linemen on it. So you think about five. Damn near a quarter of the guys on a field are offensive linemen at any given time. But we're drastically underrepresented in the NFL. Top 100, like name recognition and everything goes a long ways in these things.

[Luke Morrow]

I did have one other question before we get to the contract stuff, although it all ties in, of course. I did have one other thought or question from earlier when we were talking about the top 100 and specifically Lamar Jackson and how it compares to CJ Stroud. Lamar fell from number two to number 69, like we said. I mean, I don't think we've seen a drop like that in these lists before. What a huge drop off. But there was this idea of like, Lamar Jackson just did not have as good of a season this past year, obviously, and there were injuries involved and the Ravens had a down year at least to begin the season and whatnot. But the other interesting thing is Lamar was running on average about half as often as he was throughout his career. He cut his rushing attempts in half. He wanted to. We see this sometimes from Lamar in the playoffs, too, where it's almost like he wants to try to prove the doubters that he can be a pocket passer. But he just wasn't as effective statistically, nor was the team and, you know, led to these coaching changes. And Lamar's ranked 69th. So to try to bring that back to CJ Stroud, it's been a talking point since, for the last year, I would say, with the concussions, and it's been a concern of mine. Do you think Stroud should be running more or using his legs more? We're just using the Lamar example. It seems like that really hurt his game when he stopped running as much and Stroud seemed to stop running as much last year.

[Seth Payne]

I think it was. And it was tough with Lamar Jackson though, too, because he was just. He was dealing with an injury, like at any given point the entire season. So I like, because he's. He's really been. I mean, he is a complete and total football player in terms of a passer and a guy that can hurt you with his feet. And it's, you know, he's clearly got a different physical skill set than C.J. stroud or, well, most other human beings on earth. I think with CJ it was really the really well documented, drastic change in his play last year was when he came back from his concussion and he barely scrambled at all. It wasn't just that he didn't run. It was that he just didn't even scramble and was really reluctant to use his legs. And when he did use his legs, he ended up averaging 1 yard per carry after the concussion compared to earlier in the year in the first part of the season, where he was up around 5 yards per carry every time he rushed. So for a young quarterback in the modern NFL, like, it's just. It's the exception. It's the exception that a guy doesn't use his legs. It's just such a valuable part of the game, and defenses have to adjust to a guy that they know can pull the ball down and run or scramble. So, yeah, like, he. He 100% just needs to. He doesn't have to be to an extreme level. Like, we'd crossed that barrier the year before. CJ Started using his legs more, used them really effectively, and was doing that up until the concussion last year. And then it all evaporated after the concussion. And then that, you know, didn't hurt you in the regular season. You're still winning every game. But the. The postseason, when, man, you need every little advantage possible, then, yeah, it's. I think it makes an impact.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. And when you look at, like, the. The top quarterbacks in the league or the quarterbacks that are winning the divisions, oftentimes they are the guys that do use their legs. And I'm not saying he needs to be Michael Vick running 20 times per game, but, you know, like Davis Mills had that great touchdown run at the end of the game last year was at the Jaguars game, running to the left into the end zone, you know, and that was a play where he used his legs, and that was like the biggest win. You know, that helped really turn them around. That was a big win against Jacksonville. So obviously, plays can be made there by being mobile and maybe need some more of that to help out, especially when you have a tough offensive line or struggling to figure out the offense and whatnot. But I do want to get to this. What does CJ Shroud need to do to get a contract this year, both in terms of him, himself, and the team? What does he need to accomplish from a team perspective? Because actually, people have been asking this. You know, we always talk so much about, will C.J. shroud get paid? Will they get that next contract? But what does he actually need to accomplish this year to secure that next contract after, after this upcoming season.

[Seth Payne]

I think that, look, I mean, if you go by precedent, the best way for a quarterback to get a contract almost regardless of actual playing ability, is to win a Super Bowl. So that's a simple one. If you just do that, then you can, you're going to get a contract of some sort. I think that like, ultimately and honestly, the team success does matter. I think the. This is tough because Brock Purdy, I think Brock Purdy in general is underrated by most people in the NFL. But if you look at the way the 49ers have operated, like Kyle Shanahan and John lynch, don't necessarily worry a whole lot about whether boy, yes, like Brock Purdy benefits from being in the system and maybe somebody else could do it better than him, but they don't care because like, without, you know, the old cliche would be if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Like, if it's operating in the system is working and you've got an effective offense with that guy and he's playing at that level, like you start chasing the ideal situation at quarterback, you're just going to always come, you know, come up wanting like they, they'd been through, you know, trading vast resources for Jimmy Garoppolo, trading vast resources for Trey Lance. Getting a guy who's a top 10 quarterback and operating at a certain level, as long as you've got a good team around him, should be enough to at least reach the Super Bowl. And I mean, they did that with Jimmy Garoppolo. So like, for me, it's almost about not CJ's individual performance, but if there's simply a top 10 offense, like a consensus top 10 offense, and it's not because of a CJ collapse in the playoffs that they lose, then, then that's for me, honestly. Okay, give them the going rate for what the new quarterbacks are getting. As long as I feel at the end of the season, okay, can they win a Super bowl with this guy? Is he capable of giving that type of an effort? I'm not going to start over and start from scratch so I can live my Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo experience. When you've got a guy that's capable of being part of a top 10 offense and you've got. I think they're going to consistently have a good defense as long as d', Ameco, Ryan's is the head coach.

[Luke Morrow]

To play devil's advocate. I'm not saying they wouldn't if they win the super bowl, yeah, you pay the guy. But I guess in terms of still like his perception. And you referenced this earlier of Jalen Hurts, where we just got this top 10 list on ESPN and despite Jalen Hurts success, some people might feel like, well, it's more about the team or Jalen Hurts isn't doing so much. And he was ranked, what, 17th on that list of quarterbacks. And then even Sam Darnold just won the Super Bowl. And while it probably did propel him, I'd have to look at the list from last year. It probably did give him a boost up the list, but he was still ranked only 11th despite winning a Super bowl and having a good season postseason.

[Seth Payne]

And he's making, he's on a contract where he's making $33 million a year. I think that's the part where, when you start thinking about, all right, well, if C.J. doesn't give you a certain level of performance, what can I get out of a guy that's making $33 million a year? A guy I give a contract that's $33 million a year? Baker Mayfield making 33 million DOL dollars a year. It makes a lot more sense financially if you feel like, all right, some of these veteran guys that are kind of cast aside or castaways that have performed at a higher level than C.J. stroud, that just financially it makes better sense to go with a guy like that. So. But now with CJ the difference would be that, okay, if he improves his performance over last year, he's still a young quarterback who's going to be in the same system and it's easier to kind of maybe project it. Like, okay, he took a step forward in 2026. Things looked really good. They made the conference championship, whatever it might be that then, then the long term young quarterback type of contractor extension makes makes a lot more sense because there's still a perceived upside there.

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[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, I. For me, I think both boxes need to be checked. Like, I think he obviously needs to do his part and the team needs to have some success because as you're sort of just alluding to, like to again, maybe be somewhat of a devil's advocate. But you can make the case that if Stroud has a great year but say the team doesn't do very well, then you can say, well, like, it's almost like the old line in baseball. I'm trying to think of the manager that used to say it of like, we could lose 100 games with you or without you, so why bother paying you type of thing.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, yeah.

[Luke Morrow]

Like, well, you put up these great numbers, sure. But like, we, we didn't win. It wasn't successful. Whereas we had success in the past when we didn't require so much in the quarterback. So why do we need to devote all these resources to the quarterback if we can still win on our defense type of deal? So I feel like both boxes would need to be checked where you need Stroud to play well, of course, but you need the team to be successful. So, you know, yes, this is our plan moving forward. We can lock up this guy and. And be a secure in that and also be a successful team. Still.

[Seth Payne]

That movie was either. It was definitely either Moneyball or Major League. Which Major League was really the first money ball they first saw. First thing to prove that you could do more with less. Yeah, they don't get enough credit for that.

[Luke Morrow]

Good point. Good point. Yeah. Baker Mayfield. So, Seth, did you watch. They put out all the episodes. Right. Of this quarterback show on Netflix.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah, I just, I Went through, and I kind of cherry picked and found the parts where Baker Mayfield is either playing the Texans or talking about former Texans. So there was. There were at least two, and I think it's episode two where they show the most Baker Mayfield. But the first one was, I liked this. So Baker Mayfield's getting into it with Quenyan Mitchell from the Eagles. And at the very beginning, you can't quite. You probably won't be able to quite hear it, but basically, Baker Mayfield is saying, I don't know who you are, and then goes on to explain why he said that. Who the are you, anyway? Who the are you, anyway? I know who I am. No, I don't. It's gonna be a long day.

[Arian Foster]

I stole that one. I can't take credit for that. I stole that one directly from Arian Foster back in the day.

[Seth Payne]

I don't even know your name.

[Luke Morrow]

What's your name?

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[Seth Payne]

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[Arian Foster]

So I stole that from him. Just letting a young player know that he hadn't arrived yet.

[Seth Payne]

That was a great moment in Arian Foster history. When he was saying, turn around, that's what Arian did, that Baker didn't do the turnaround. So I can see your nameplate. That was. That was. And I can't remember. I can't remember who that player was. I don't know if he went on to prominence or not. But that was an awesome moment and a mic'd up moment for Arian Foster.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. So much so that you got Baker Mayfield using it, you know, all these years later. It is a good line. It's kind of similar to that reference I made earlier when the person's like, hey, what do you think of me? And he's like, I don't. I don't think of you.

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[Luke Morrow]

You know, that's the best. As I said at the time, that's the best way to try to get back at someone is like, I don't even care about you.

[Seth Payne]

Oh, this is. I'll tell you what. Like, people know who Quan Yon Mitchell is. I kind of feel bad for this guy that Arian was talking to. Former Miami Dolphins backup safety Jimmy Wilson.

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[Seth Payne]

He wouldn't go on to make a name for himself for anything other than that, as far as I know. Maybe I'm missing out on something or whatever, but I can't remember Jimmy Wilson ever doing anything impactful.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, he spent five years in the NFL and played. Played 73 games, but, yeah, that's. That's about it.

[Seth Payne]

So then this one. This one might hit a little close to home. We're actually. We talked yesterday a little bit about the value of bulletin board material. You guys recall in the Bucs game versus the Texans last year, about. With about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter, Baker Mayfield had a scramble to his left. Not the big scramble later in the game, the Bucs actually had a lead at this point, but Baker Mayfield had a scramble and got hit pretty hard and got up limping. And there was some things that led up to that, some smell, some smack talk with C.J. gardner Johnson that, like, after this exchange you're about to hear here is when in the next series, Baker Mayfield would have that awesome scramble and everything. But this is leading up to that moment, just as Baker Mayfield is scrambling to his left, gets a first down, and CJ Gardner Johnson talks some smack to him. Who you talking to? Who are you talking to, huh? Who are you talking to, huh?

[Luke Morrow]

Shut up.

[Seth Payne]

Just your ass up.

[Arian Foster]

Chauncey Gardner Johnson. Just years and years of him talking trash about me. And when you finally play somebody like that, you're gonna let him have it.

[Luke Morrow]

Third and nine, can they make the one big play that they need right now? Midfield goes by Petri and gets the first down.

[Arian Foster]

I was banged up, spraying my MCL bone bruise, which obviously I didn't know that at the time. Not. Not feeling great then I hear. So pop up, adrenaline kicks in. You forget that you're hurt. I had to let him know that. Doesn't matter if I'm 150. You can still get it anywhere.

[Seth Payne]

Yeah. Thanks. C.J. gardner Johnson. Thanks. Yeah. So in that clip, the first. The first clip is when they were down, backed up in their own. Near their own end zone, and there was a face mask. CJ Gardner Johnson comes up and starts talking smack. Then later in that series, he scrambles, gets hit, sprains his mcl and has what? What did he say? A bone bruise after that. And C.J. gardner Johnson saying, get your. Get your. Get your bitch ass up. And then Baker just basically used that as a moment to like, nope, gonna fight through this. Gonna be just fine. And he was. He was absolutely fine.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah, sure was. More reasons like C.J.

[Seth Payne]

gardner Johnson, he had said when. When C.J. gardner Johnson was with Detroit, he told a group of reporters, quote, if you give that Tampa group a good quarterback, that's a great, great group. Evans, Godwin, Gage, that's a great group. So that's just at least one thing that he apparently has said about Baker Mayfield, in his time here, in his time in the league, did you come away so far?

[Luke Morrow]

Feel. Do you like Baker more now than you did going into the Series? Like him worse. Feel the same.

[Seth Payne]

I think he's. No. Baker Mayfield is the classic guy that if he was on my team, I would think he's just got the best attitude ever. But when he's on an opposing team, he rubs me the wrong way. Yeah. Which is. Which is a good place to be as an athlete. I'm very open about that. The guys that I. I don't like at all when they're. When they're not, I might. Pat Beverly, you know, when Pat Beverley wasn't on the Rockets, after the Rockets, like, when he left the Rockets, I knew that I wasn't going to like him at some point, and it came to be that way. But when he was with the Rockets, he was the exact same guy. But I absolutely loved him, and I have zero shame about that. So, yeah, if Baker Mayfield were the quarterback of the Texans, I would feel like everything about his attitude is exactly what I want in the quarterback. When he's not on the Texans, he annoys the hell out of me.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Once he's on your team, he's got to be your guy, so I get that.

[Seth Payne]

No, no, but he's got. Yeah. Look, like, in terms of just like, kind of like grittiness or whatever.

[Luke Morrow]

Oh, absolutely.

[Seth Payne]

He's got a different vibe than cj.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. No, that's what you love from your quarterback is that grittiness and that very clip right there. Playing banged up. He played banged up all year, and he made that big play at the end of the game, you know, to be able to beat the Texans. Yeah.

[Seth Payne]

CJ's played banged up. I just can't. I don't know. Like, I don't.

[Luke Morrow]

I'm just saying in general, I don't

[Seth Payne]

see Baker, you know, breaking down in tears at any point, that's all. There's a little bit of that.

[Luke Morrow]

Yeah. Yeah. That part, I don't think. I think that was missing from the quarterback series this year, but, yeah, just in general. Even Baker. Yeah, he's got that good mindset for a quarterback, for sure. Coming up. Who in this quarterback situation has more pressure on them, Stroud or the actual Texans? We'll talk about that coming up.

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metrics that look great till the CFO sees them. That's bullspend and marketers are calling it out in dashboard confessions.

[Luke Morrow]

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[Dr. Horton Home Sales Representative]

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