PBD Podcast #757: Oil’s Most VOLATILE Day In History w/ Anthony Scaramucci

Date: March 11, 2026
Host: Patrick Bet-David (PBD)
Guests: Anthony Scaramucci, Tom Ellsworth, Brandon Asseto
Theme: The episode dives into the geopolitical crisis leading to the most volatile day for oil in history, focusing on unfolding U.S.-Iran conflict, market reactions, and the broader implications on politics, security, and the economy.

Episode Overview

The PBD Podcast assembles the home team and special guest Anthony Scaramucci to unravel the explosion in oil price volatility spurred by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly Iran’s actions and U.S. responses. The panel dissects Trump’s strategic options, market fallout, the regional power game with Israel, economic data, the shifting AI landscape, and a notable collectible investment story.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Oil Market Turbulence and Geopolitics

[09:28–15:14]

• Background: Oil prices spiked to nearly $120 before abruptly falling to $85 after President Trump announced consideration of seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz – a vital oil chokepoint.
• Market Reaction: The spike was driven by uncertainty; fundamentals suggest prices will trend down after resolution (“what uncertainty does in markets... these are not permanent things, these are reactionary” – Tom Ellsworth, 12:13).
• Production Dynamics: Shutting oil production in areas like Saudi Arabia and Qatar isn’t switchable; takes weeks to resume after such disruptions (Anthony Scaramucci, 11:17).
• Venezuela Factor: U.S. refineries built for Venezuela’s heavy crude, making it easy to absorb increased supply as sanctions eased.

  “If you combine Venezuela and Iran, it's 31% of the world's oil reserve. So there's a big play going on right now.” — Anthony Scaramucci [14:38]

2. U.S. Strategy and Middle East Power Politics

[15:02–41:00]

• Trump’s Approach: Scaramucci outlines Trump's playbook: regime change “lite” in Venezuela, seeking to pivot Iran similarly by empowering secularists, but Iranian internal repression and lack of civilian arms mean regime change is unlikely.

• Israel’s Divergence: While U.S. aims at stability and controllable regimes, Israel seeks failed partition states to diminish threats—preferred to deal with fragmented, weaker neighbors.

  "Victory to us is different than victory for Israel..." — Patrick Bet-David [24:45] “They want a failed partition state. That's what I think.” — Anthony Scaramucci [26:01]

• Escalation Risks: Killing the Iranian Supreme Leader and high officials increases risks of reprisals, destabilization, and heavy-handed repression internally, potentially making life worse for ordinary Iranians.

• Potential Outcomes:

  • U.S.: regime collapse, new secular leadership
  • Israel: Iran crippled and unable to threaten
  • Iran: regime survival is victory, can spin U.S. withdrawal as a win

  "They win by not losing." — Anthony Scaramucci [38:41]

3. War Scenarios, Regional Security, & U.S. Decision Points

[41:00–49:45]

• Suppressed Uprising: Iran’s 47-year repressive apparatus prevents meaningful internal revolt (“the citizens have been declawed... all the guns have been taken away” – Scaramucci, 18:04).
• Quagmire Warnings: U.S. is “at the front door of a quagmire,” with no good way out, drawing comparisons to Afghanistan and Carter-era retreats (Tom Ellsworth, 63:04).
• Trump’s Dilemma: Balancing legacy (going for regime collapse a la Reagan with the USSR) vs. economic self-interest and polling pressures—especially with war polling poorly among Americans (Scaramucci, 49:45).

4. Military Escalation: Strait of Hormuz & Regional Fallout

[66:14–73:38]

• Mining the Strait: U.S. forces sunk 16 Iranian mine layers; the “IEDs of the water” tactic is a cheap but disruptive way for Iran to retaliate, causing insurance and shipping headaches.

  “These mines are basically the IEDs of the water...low tech, but very effective at stopping a highly organized opponent.” — Tom Ellsworth [67:12]

• Internal Iranian Dynamics: Money-laundering through Dubai, regime’s dependence on expat networks, and potential pressure via sanctions or attacks on regime banking assets discussed.

5. Trump, Putin, and International Power Games

[73:38–91:50]

• Trump-Putin Call: Discussion about U.S.–Russia call regarding Iran, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Scaramucci alleges Trump is “deferential” to Putin possibly due to compromise, while others strongly dispute the idea that Trump is soft on adversaries.

  “He loves Putin, okay? He's done nothing to really help the Ukrainians since he got the job...” — Anthony Scaramucci [75:35]

• Debate over Strategy: Spirited panel debate on whether Trump is helping global adversaries or confronting them more staunchly than recent Democratic presidents.
• China, COVID, and Election Interference: Scaramucci raises (with caveats) the theory that China benefited from disrupting the Trump presidency via COVID, noting also that internal Chinese political pressure likely played a larger role.

6. U.S. Economic Data & Inflation Correction

[108:10–116:34]

• CPI and Jobs: CPI came in at 2.4%, but February saw a loss of 92,000 jobs—mixed economic signals.
• Inflation’s Hidden Cost: Discussion on how “deficit spending is unfunded tax liability” (Milton Friedman). Both parties use inflation as a backdoor tax, punishing the working poor.

  “If you had $10,000 in your savings account, you now have $7,200 worth of purchasing power.” — Anthony Scaramucci [116:41]

• Poor Economic Literacy: Many mistakenly believe their financial situation is improving due to nominal asset value increases, not realizing real value is slipping due to currency debasement.

7. AI, Anthropic and the Pentagon

[122:02–127:34]

• Anthropic Lawsuit: AI company Anthropic sued the government for blacklisting it over refusal to remove limits on weaponized or surveillance uses. Panel generally agrees the admin’s position is overzealous and likely to fail in court.

  “They overly bullied Anthropic here... this is that overzealousness that goes on sometimes when people are bowled up with a lot of power.” — Anthony Scaramucci [123:59]

• AI in Government: Joking about the pervasiveness of surveillance, the panel doubts a $200m contract would halt domestic use, noting “three-letter agencies” already employ such technology.

8. Bitcoin, Investment Insights, and Collectibles

[119:04–121:42, 131:17–136:34]

• Cryptos during Crisis: Bitcoin and scarce assets like collectibles are pitched as hedges against inflation and market chaos.

  “Buy bitcoin. That's what it is.” — Patrick Bet-David [119:37] “I think [Bitcoin] is going to be the market capitalization of gold... Could it take 15 years to get there? Probably.” — Anthony Scaramucci [120:54]

• Scaramucci’s Son’s Collecting: Scaramucci proudly recounts his son’s purchase of Logan Paul’s $16M Pokémon card and ambitions to buy a T-Rex fossil or the Declaration of Independence. He frames it as an inflation hedge—tangible assets that outpace fiat debasement—while noting the PR value as “like buying the Super Bowl twice.” [133:22]

  “Own quality, stick with quality... my mistakes have been selling too early.” — Anthony Scaramucci [136:01]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Regime Survival:
  “They win by not losing.” — Anthony Scaramucci [38:41]
• On Iran’s Security State:
  "Imagine the NSA to the ninth power...they've suppressed the people." — Anthony Scaramucci [18:04]
• On the U.S. Quagmire Risk:
  “I think we're at the front door of Quagmire, and now we gotta figure out a way to get out.” — Tom Ellsworth [63:04]
• On Trump’s Motivations:
  “He wants to be the richest person in the world... Money, attention, and then the third thing is... legacy.” — Anthony Scaramucci [51:07]
• On Legacy vs. Economy:
  “If he is legacy, he's got to go out there and do this for the history books. If he's purely economy, he's going to step out.” — Patrick Bet-David [60:42]
• On Putting Pressure on Iran:
  "We're so into deep. To me, you know the, the, the part about, you know, trying to juggle two ideas at the same time. Right?" — Patrick Bet-David [47:56]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oil Volatility and Iran-U.S. Struggle: 09:28–15:14
• Trump's Iran Strategy & Regime Change Debate: 15:02–41:00
• Quagmire and War Escalation Discussion: 41:00–49:45
• U.S. Sinks Iranian Mine Layers, Strait of Hormuz: 66:14–73:38
• Trump-Putin Relationship, Ukraine & China: 73:38–91:50
• Inflation, CPI, and Jobs Data Dissection: 108:10–116:34
• AI and Anthropic Lawsuit Analysis: 122:02–127:34
• Bitcoin, Hard Assets, and Collectibles: 119:04–121:42, 131:17–136:34

Tone, Energy, and Closing Thoughts

The episode is dynamic and real-time, with spirited debates between Scaramucci (critical of Trump), the home team (defending practical Trump strategies), and frequent pivots to both monetary and security policy. The hosts and guests mix hard-hitting geopolitical assessment with economic wisdom, practical investment advice, and even humor on AI and family legacy. Throughout, Patrick maintains a conversational, sometimes confrontational, but never hostile tone—leaving listeners with concrete takeaways and open questions as world events continue to unfold.

For further questions or to interact with Scaramucci, the podcast encourages audience engagement via Manect.