PBD Podcast Episode 542: “Trump Would’ve Won Without Musk” - Ian Bremmer DEFENDS Davos, Deep State & Global Elite Agendas

Release Date: February 3, 2025
Host: Patrick Bet-David
Guest: Ian Bremmer, Geopolitical Expert and New York Times Bestseller

Introduction

In Episode 542 of the PBD Podcast, host Patrick Bet-David engages in a comprehensive and candid conversation with renowned geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer. The discussion traverses Bremmer's extensive background, his perspectives on global governance, the influence of elite organizations like the World Economic Forum (WEF), the notion of a deep state, and the dynamics influencing the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

1. Ian Bremmer’s Early Experiences and Global Perspective (04:54 - 12:00)

Bremmer’s Unconventional Start:
Ian Bremmer shares his unique journey into the world of geopolitics, highlighting his attendance at Tulane College at the tender age of 15. This early entrance paved the way for his exposure to international affairs, notably his trips to the Soviet Union during pivotal moments in history.

An Electrocution Incident in Moscow:
At 16, Bremmer recounts a harrowing experience in Moscow's Hotel Rossiya. While attempting to turn on a lamp, he accidentally touched exposed wires, resulting in electrocution and unconsciousness. This incident was a significant wake-up call, underscoring the stark differences between American and Soviet infrastructures and safety standards.

Notable Quote:
"My finger went into the copper wires. I electrocute myself and pass out." (11:16)

2. The Fall of the Soviet Union and Globalization (17:03 - 25:26)

Witnessing the Collapse:
Bremmer reflects on his presence in Ukraine during the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1992. Observing the mass celebrations for independence profoundly influenced his belief in democracy's triumph over authoritarianism.

Globalization’s Dual-Edged Sword:
While Bremmer advocates for globalization's benefits—such as reducing poverty and increasing the global middle class—he criticizes its failures, particularly in the United States. He argues that globalization has disproportionately benefited the wealthy and global middle class while leaving the American middle and working classes behind.

Notable Quote:
"Globalization is wonderful. I love the fact that people and goods and services and ideas move faster and faster around the world. But globalism, the idea that you can get your hands on power and promote these things and not care about your own fellow countrymen, I don't accept that at all." (27:52)

3. The Concept of the Deep State and Global Elite Organizations (58:24 - 89:08)

Debunking the Deep State Myth:
Patrick Bet-David probes into the idea of a deep state, referencing Bremmer’s appearances at elite gatherings like the WEF. Bremmer clarifies that while networking organizations like the WEF facilitate connections among global leaders, they do not wield direct control over world affairs.

Critique of Elite Networking:
Bremmer emphasizes that organizations such as the WEF are more about efficient networking and deal-making rather than orchestrating global policies. He dismisses the notion that these bodies have clandestine control over global events.

Notable Quote:
"These organizations have virtually no power in and of themselves and they serve as networking organizations to help people get deals done." (58:24)

4. Media, Social Media, and Political Polarization (23:31 - 36:40)

Fragmented Information Landscape:
Bremmer discusses how the fragmentation of media—exacerbated by social media algorithms—has deepened political divisions in the United States. The rise of echo chambers and segmented information sources contributes to a polarized electorate.

Impact on Democracy:
He argues that the breakdown of a unified information space undermines democratic processes, making it harder for Americans to find common ground and engage in civil discourse.

Notable Quote:
"Social media and the ability to communicate directly with people with comparatively limited amount of funds available is a completely game changer for undermining the establishment." (29:19)

5. The 2024 U.S. Election and Predictions (38:02 - 57:43)

Anti-Establishment Sentiment:
Bremmer posits that widespread dissatisfaction with the political establishment set the stage for Trump’s potential victory, even without high-profile endorsements from figures like Elon Musk or Bobby Kennedy.

Economic and Social Challenges:
He attributes Trump's strong performance to economic challenges such as high inflation and migration issues, which he believes were inadequately addressed by the incumbent administration. Bremmer suggests that these factors outweighed the influence of endorsements.

Notable Quote:
"I think I still would have expected a very close race, but I thought Trump was going to win this race." (49:26)

6. Global Risks and Future Outlook (44:35 - 89:08)

Top Global Risks for 2025:
Bremmer outlines his top global risks, including economic fragmentation, advancements in AI, regional conflicts like Russia-Ukraine, and the challenges posed by ungoverned spaces. He underscores the importance of addressing these risks to maintain global stability.

Role of Institutions:
He advocates for strong institutions that uphold rule of law and democratic values, warning against the erosion of these principles which could lead to increased global instability.

Notable Quote:
"If you are in a position of power in that environment, it's a real democracy and the election isn't rigged, you just got hammered and that's the reality." (41:19)

7. Deep Divisions and the Future of American Politics (89:08 - 146:54)

Continued Political Polarization:
Bremmer expresses concern over the persistent and deepening political divisions in the U.S., attributing them to class divisions, identity politics, and the fragmented media landscape.

Tariffs and Economic Policy:
The conversation touches on the strategic use of tariffs in foreign policy. Bremmer supports the use of tariffs as tools for national security and economic leverage but criticizes the scattershot approach taken by Trump, which he believes leads to unintended negative consequences.

Notable Quote:
"Tariffs are an indispensable tool for the United States in foreign policy, but you want to use them strategically." (57:38)

Relationship with Influential Figures:
Bremmer discusses Trump’s relationships with influential figures like Elon Musk, highlighting how these alliances play a role in political dynamics and campaign strategies.

Notable Quote:
"Trump is more transactional and more pay for play. [...] Elon is very careful. He's very pro Communist Party." (122:24)

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Bremmer expressing his concerns about the current trajectory of American politics and global governance. He emphasizes the need for unity and structural reforms to address long-term issues such as economic inequality and political polarization. While recognizing the potential benefits of Trump's policies in certain areas, Bremmer remains cautious about the broader implications for democratic institutions and global stability.

Notable Quote:
"I really want him to succeed, but I don't think we have lived up to the promise of 1989 in 2025. The fact that people don't look up to our political system, the fact that we're so divided in this country right now, that is something that I'm not proud of." (20:12)

Key Takeaways:

• Globalization's Mixed Impact: While beneficial on a macro scale, globalization has led to significant disparities within the U.S., undermining the American middle and working classes.

• Media's Role in Polarization: The fragmentation and algorithm-driven nature of modern media have deepened political divides, making consensus more elusive.

• Strategic Use of Tariffs: Tariffs can be effective tools for economic and national security policy when applied strategically, but misuse can disrupt supply chains and economic stability.

• Influence of Elite Organizations: Organizations like the WEF facilitate high-level networking but do not exercise covert control over global policies.

• 2024 Election Dynamics: Anti-establishment sentiment and economic challenges are crucial factors in shaping election outcomes, potentially outweighing endorsements from influential figures.

This episode offers a nuanced exploration of current geopolitical trends, the interplay between domestic politics and global governance, and the underlying forces shaping the future of the United States and the world.