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Ian Bremmer
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Patrick Bet-David
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Ian Bremmer
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Ian Bremmer
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Patrick Bet-David
Learn more@Factor Meals.com you're a new York Times bestseller. You've been shown in many different meetings with some people that would be considered globalists. You've spoken at World Economic Forum multiple times. Some people would consider them deep state.
Ian Bremmer
I've gone for 15 years. I can assure you that no running of the world is being done by the World Economic Forum.
Patrick Bet-David
I see the need for a great reset. You don't think that's a little weird?
Ian Bremmer
No.
Patrick Bet-David
Really? You don't think that's a little weird?
Ian Bremmer
You're a smart guy.
Patrick Bet-David
I am a smart guy.
Ian Bremmer
Don't go off. I think globalization is good.
Patrick Bet-David
I think all of you guys are bought on this side. You guys are for sale.
Ian Bremmer
And the idea that that's true only of one party, not the other, is insane.
Patrick Bet-David
Tear apart my argument.
Ian Bremmer
Trump sees that he has a tool and he's scattershot, uses it everywhere. I think that is one of the most irresponsible decisions by a president I have ever seen in my life, honestly. And why is he doing it? Because he. Because he wants to show he can.
Patrick Bet-David
Do you know what happened to the Democratic credibility to me right here?
Ian Bremmer
It got hurt.
Patrick Bet-David
Not hurt completely. This is not hurt. This is the first time in history.
Ian Bremmer
It'S shattered China today. They have advanced technologies. They're ahead of us.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't know if you can say it because I know you're going to upset some of your. You will be canceled. Dinner will be canceled. A couple of your.
Ian Bremmer
I can say whatever I want. I can.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't know if you.
Ian Bremmer
I really can.
Patrick Bet-David
I want to protect you. Don't say everything you want to say.
Ian Bremmer
Foreign.
Patrick Bet-David
Guest today, two and a half hour conversation. Ian Bremmer, geopolitical expert for the last 26 years. He comes out with the top 10 global risks. Every year this guy's gotten tens of millions of views. One of his ted talks got 10 plus million views. You know, spoken at World Economic Forum many, many times. He's been in that circle many, many times. I asked him about Klaus Schwab, I asked him about World Economic Forum. His answer is very different. I asked him, what do you think about the guy that talks about a great reset? What do you think about the fact that Covid happens in March of 2020 four months later Klaus Schwab writes a book called the COVID Reset or The Great Reset? COVID 19. Great Reset. And he had his own opinions on it. We talked about Trump, the relationship, what Musk was very, very. The way he explained the dynamics of how he views Trump and Musk leverage each other's relationship. I've probably not heard broken down by anybody the way he did. This guy's a certified genius. At 15 years old, he went to Tulane College. By 16 years old, the college sends him to Russia and he's at USSR and he's staying right next to, you know, all the main events in Moscow with everything that's happening. And very rarely I do a two and a half hour podcast because I got a meeting, I'm late to 30 minutes. But I really, really enjoyed this conversation and I hope you do as well with the one and only Ian Bremmer.
Ian Bremmer
For me. Adam, what's your point?
Patrick Bet-David
The future looks bright. My handshake is better than anything I ever saw. It's right here. You are a one on one.
Ian Bremmer
My son's right. I don't think.
Patrick Bet-David
How you doing?
Ian Bremmer
I'm doing good, man.
Patrick Bet-David
Good.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
In Armenia, two Armenians in a room happens, right? I mean, it's a miracle, but it does happen every once in a while.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, I feel the connection already see.
Patrick Bet-David
The connection as well. You know, obviously I've seen your stuff for many years. You know, you've done stuff that TEDx, TED talks, 10 million views. You've, you know, always making new predictions every year, what's going to happen, the risks, all that stuff. How does somebody wake up one day and say, I want to get into this space. How did it happen to you?
Ian Bremmer
So I, when I went to college, I was, I was really young. I was 15. And I grew up with nothing. I grew up in the projects. I never traveled anywhere. I had a professor. This was back in 1986. I had a professor that was leading a trip to the Soviet Union. This is when Gorbachev, like, first came in. This was before reform. This is like super evil empire, Reagan days. Right. And I begged him, take me on this trip. And so here I am as a kid, finding myself halfway around the world behind the Iron Curtain, authoritarian regime, communism, crazy government, but meeting young people that in many ways are just like you and me. Fascinating. And then three years later, the wall comes down. So I was very much, you know, very impressionable, in the right place at the right time. The world was changing, felt like democracy was winning. It felt like our ideas were actually, you know, sort of becoming, you know, helping people all over the world. And, and, and how could you not want to do something with that, be a part of that? So that's what inspired me to want to understand different people everywhere and try to do something with that.
Patrick Bet-David
15 years old, you go to Tulane.
Ian Bremmer
15 years old was not my fault. It's not like I said, I want to go to Tulane at 15.
Patrick Bet-David
15 years old, you're in a party town. What do you do?
Ian Bremmer
Well, one.
Patrick Bet-David
Where are you staying at one.
Ian Bremmer
You lie about your age.
Patrick Bet-David
Right off the bat.
Ian Bremmer
Well, girls are not going to date a 15 year old. And it wasn't like I was going to troll high schools, right? No. So, I mean, just like pretended I was just 18, I was normal. And, and, and then you. I joined a frat, and that didn't go so well. But I.
Patrick Bet-David
What happened?
Ian Bremmer
They promised they weren't gonna haze, and they lied.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
And I couldn't really handle it.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
So I quit. But, you know, when you're 15, in college, and especially at a party school, the hard thing is not your. Your grades in the classes. The hard thing is trying to find a way to actually be a normal kid. And so here I am by myself for the first time, away from family and trying to learn how to socialize with people, how to just be normal. And that was. That took a lot of effort.
Patrick Bet-David
How's. How's mom handling it? Like, was mom like, you know, we're taking one of our kids to a soccer camp, right. For img, and he's gonna be there for a week. Does he stay at the school? Does he stay with us? Does he stay at the campuses? And that's. How does mom handle you being gone at 15? How does she do that? Because Mom's Armenian.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, Mom's Armenian. My dad Was German, died when I was four.
Patrick Bet-David
Dad that you. You died, your dad died when you were 4.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, yeah. They met. They met. My, My dad was an enlisted man in the army and my mom was in high school, met on Revere beach and she fell in love, quit high school, eloped with him because he was being sent out to Ecuador to be based and she was an officer's wife. And so that was the, that was the background. So when he died, she went back to Boston, Chelsea, where her family was. And I mean, her life came crashing down and. And I was. I was her life. And then my brother later.
Patrick Bet-David
Is that mom and dad there?
Ian Bremmer
That's. That's mom and dad. Yeah, that's right. Yeah. There you go. Wow.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. Four years old.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Four years cancer. And he's young. Yeah, he was in his 40s. He was young 40s at the time.
Patrick Bet-David
So you go into Two Lane. Can you pull up the Two Lane picture? I just saw it. You pulled it up. Oh, my God. Seeing it really, that was. You're playing chess.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, my God. That's a hard.
Patrick Bet-David
Seriously, that's a horrible photo. You're playing chess.
Ian Bremmer
Look at those David Stockman glass. Look at the velour sweater. It's not good. I didn't know you were going to do this to me. I didn't know you could do this.
Patrick Bet-David
That's cool. That is cool.
Ian Bremmer
I haven't seen that photo in years. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
So did you, did you do a four year program, like, you know, in a two year thing? Is that kind of what happened with you because you were going through it fast or did you do full.
Ian Bremmer
I did the full four years, but I traveled everywhere. I mean, I went to the Soviet Union a couple times. I went to Japan. I did my junior year abroad. I mean, I went from nowhere growing up in Chelsea, Massachusetts, to traveling everywhere because there were all these opportunities.
Patrick Bet-David
How old were you when you went to Russia?
Ian Bremmer
I would have been Soviet union first time. 16.
Patrick Bet-David
Like, you know, like, I don't know if you saw when Tucker went to interview Putin and he's explaining what the subways and all this stuff looks like. Right? What was it for you? Impressionable kid. You're going there. What did you notice?
Ian Bremmer
Subways were incredible, of course, and they're super, super deep underground. They were meant to be bomb shelters. All of this incredible mar. Marble artistry, grandiose. I mean, you know, communism. And it was meant to show the average Soviet citizen that this is Soviet power, it's accessible to everyone. But my first Experience was very different from that. It's a funny story. So this was the Hotel Cosmos, which was, excuse me, the Hotel Racia. I was at the Cosmos as well, the Hotel Racia. And it was in Moscow. It was right off Red Square. And, and at the time it was the largest hotel in the world. It was where the Olympic athletes, the Americans, if Carter hadn't boycotted, would have been staying there. And so here I am. That's the hotel, the Hotel Rossiya. You see the Kremlin in the background there on the left, and there's the river. So anyway, there I go. And there's 10 of us, 14 of us on the trip, all students from Tulane and our professor. We're two to each room, these little single beds. And you know, you're trundling with your suitcase up the stairs, down these long hallways and it was dark and I was jet lagged. I'd never been jet lagged in my life before. I'm zonked out of my skull. I have no idea where I am. And I go to put the light on in the room because it's dark. So it's a single bed and there's a clip on lamp that is clipped to the little headboard on the back of my bed behind the pillow. And so I go to try to turn the knob on the lamp. There's no knob. It turns out that it's on the wire behind the headboard. So I break rule number one in the former Soviet Union, which is never put your hand someplace you can't see. I reach behind the headboard and as I go to turn on the light, it turned out that the plastic casing had been broken, eaten through. My finger went into the copper wires. I electrocute myself and pass out.
Patrick Bet-David
Get outta here.
Ian Bremmer
Swear to God.
Patrick Bet-David
16 years old.
Ian Bremmer
16 years old. My first 10 minutes in like this hotel in Moscow and I passed out on the bed and it just, you realize suddenly that, okay, this is not like in the United States. You eat an apple pie and it says caution and it's really hot. There are no fudgeing caution signs in the former Soviet Union. Okay? So it's, it was just a real come to Jesus moment of okay, Ian, you're going to need to like actually be a little more aware of your surroundings here. You're going to have to like, pay attention.
Patrick Bet-David
First experience.
Ian Bremmer
First experience.
Patrick Bet-David
What else, what else was it for you? Like when, maybe when you left, you're on the flight back, you're talking to your roommate. What are you telling them?
Ian Bremmer
I'm saying, like, what an incredible mind blowing. All of these different places. I thought that communists were all the same. I thought, like the Soviet Union, there were all gonna be these mindless automatons that hated us. Turned out, I mean, you had Armenians and you had Georgians and Azeris and Russians and Ukrainians, and they had different parts of the Soviet Union. And they, they acted differently, their culture was different, their languages were different. I mean, and some of it I had some personal and cultural connection with, and it was nothing like what I heard in the newspapers. You know, what I read in the Boston Herald, you know, when I was growing up as a kid, it was nothing like that. It was so much more rich.
Patrick Bet-David
When's the last time you went back to Russia?
Ian Bremmer
Oh, it would have been before the pandemic, but not much before.
Patrick Bet-David
So. 20. 19. 20, 18.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
What was it like? What was the biggest difference from 18 to when you went in? 86?
Ian Bremmer
Oh, I mean, first of all, just how much more money has come into these places, right? I mean, a lot of these countries are, you know, now fully integrated into a global economy. And so you've got, you know, that's another funny thing. My. Not my first trip to the Soviet Union, my second also was a student, right? Undergraduate student a couple years later. And I knew from my first trip there that they were super interested in all of these American consumer goods and technology that they had no access to. I mean, so these were the days where you'd bring a pair of Levi's, blue jeans, and they'd want to trade because they couldn't get them themselves. They'd want like a ballpoint pen. They couldn't get them. They wanted like, you know, anything that was like decent, basic American branded stuff. So I went to the. Remember the Sharper Image?
Patrick Bet-David
Of course, yeah.
Ian Bremmer
So, I mean, as a kid, I remember it was right off of Faneuil hall in Boston, and that was a super fancy shop. You couldn't buy anything from there, but it's cool. You'd like.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
So I went there, I told him I was going to the Soviet Union. I said, would you give me like a hundred of your catalogs so that when I go and meet these kids, I can show them the stuff that Americans have that we could just buy, Which I thought would blow their mind, right? I mean, like, you know, sort of capitalism like behind the Iron Curtain. And so I get there, I remember one of the things that completely blew their mind. This would have been an 88, 89.
Patrick Bet-David
This is the second time you went.
Ian Bremmer
Second time I went as a student and there was a cordless phone, right? So a home cordless phone. Sharper image, Sharper image, Sharper Image us. It floated and it was waterproof and it was. So you could use it in your swimming pool. Now imagine the orders of complete befuddlement that the average former Soviet would have with that concept. I mean, one, phones have wires. So how is it possible that you can be talking into this device that isn't physically connected? Secondly, what do you mean it floats? What, what are you talking about? A swimming pool? Like what, you bring it with you to the common swimming pool? No, your own swimming pool that a lot of them my aunt had, who was like perfectly middle class, had a swimming pool in her backyard. You could have used it there on your floaty. Right. That's all of that was completely inconceivable for an 18 year old kid in the Soviet Union. So that was kind of interesting.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. I mean, I remember in Iran, I had never had. We were told like, rich people eat this fruit called an on us. Okay, Pineapple.
Ian Bremmer
Pineapple, right. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And banana.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
So I'm like, oh, man, one day that'd be so freaking amazing. So we would be. Every once in a while we would get Nutella. And if you got Nutella, German Nutella would come in. Let me tell you, we're fighting over a Nutella. I mean, it was like, you know, everybody's fighting to get it done. But we go to Germany and for the first time I have. What do you call it? Banana.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Oh my God.
Ian Bremmer
You never had it.
Patrick Bet-David
I've never had. 11 years old.
Ian Bremmer
11 years old.
Patrick Bet-David
First time I had banana, Ian, I'm like, I cannot believe they kept this away from me for 11 years.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And then I ate pineapple, you know, like full on. They're cutting it. Not the one out of a can.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And I'm eating this pineapple saying how sweet it is. Right. So to, to the innocence of a kid. You know, in Russia, you're seeing that phone float, you know, in water. You're not. You don't have to worry about wireless. It's got to be a big deal to somebody like that. I've seen it.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
But let me ask you as a impressionable kid, 86, 88, 89, you're going there versus now for yourself, majoring in political science or poli sci.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And you're a brilliant kid at 15 years that you go into Tula and it's not like you're, you're Very smart, you're very educated. What's changed for you politically from them? Like, what events? Because this is your world. You've been making predictions since, I think I saw 2000. I think you started the. From 86. 88. 98, yeah.
Ian Bremmer
27 years.
Patrick Bet-David
So since 98. And then your prediction's been making every year. But what's evolved with you from the 1986, 1980, 89, first time you went to Russia till today, politically?
Ian Bremmer
Well, 89 was this incredible moment where the United States, right, actually won and won without a bullet being fired. Won not because our economy was better, though it was. Not because our military was stronger, though it was, but because all of these people behind the Iron Curtain saw the way Americans and our allies lived and said, we don't want to tolerate the loss of these liberties. We want to have freedoms. We want to have free speech. We want to have a free market. We want to live like these people. And so our political system, our civil society, was leading by example. And it was something that, I mean, if you think where we are today, when, I mean, so many people want to come to the United States, but no one outside the US Would say, I want my political system to run like America's. Like, you just wouldn't say that today, but 35 years ago, you would. You would. And I think that that was, for me, that was really inspirational, that that was something I was a part of. Like, I would say the Pledge of Allegiance when I was a kid every morning, and I would, you know, put my hand on my heart, and I knew it, and I would sing the Star Spangled Banner. And those things all felt just like you were going through the motions when you're a kid in public school. But when you then go to the Soviet Union and when you see the wall come down, you see 15 republics become independent countries. And I was in Ukraine in 1992, and I was there for their first ever day of independence.
Patrick Bet-David
Oh, wow.
Ian Bremmer
And you saw ethnic Russians and ethnic Ukrainians all come out in the hundreds of thousands and celebrate the fact that they had independence from the Soviet empire. Suddenly, all those things that you did as a kid really mean something to you. They really inspire you. Like, oh, I'm. I'm proud to come from a system where I. I can do all of these things where I can say, all.
Patrick Bet-David
Proud to be an American.
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
Or at least I know I'm free, Right?
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
And. And has. Has that level of being proud to be an American. Is it the same as it was in 89? As it is today, in 2025 for you?
Ian Bremmer
No.
Patrick Bet-David
Why not?
Ian Bremmer
It's a little different.
Patrick Bet-David
Tell me why.
Ian Bremmer
I'm very proud to be in a country where I believe that it is still patriotic, essentially. Patriotic to say what you disagree with, to say when you think your political leaders are making mistakes. And Lord knows, as an entrepreneur who started his own firm from nothing and with no money, there's no other country in the world that you could have done that. So I'm enormously grateful to have been so lucky that I could be born in a country where we could do the kind of things that you and I do. That's incredible. But I'm a little sad that we have not lived up to the promise of 1989 in 2025. Not the role of the dollar, not the strength of our military, not the fact that we have the best universities everyone wants to come to, but the fact that people don't look up to our political system. The fact that we're so divided in this country right now, that is something that I'm not proud of. I don't like how divided.
Patrick Bet-David
Were you proud to be an American? 24. Were you? When's the last time you would say? The last time I was proud to be an American like 89 was when.
Ian Bremmer
I'm still proud to be in America.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't think that. But that level.
Ian Bremmer
But 89, it probably would have been, oh, definitely after 9 11. Okay, definitely after 9 11, I was in New York. I saw the second tower go down. You saw the whole city and the whole country sure. Come together and we did some things that we shouldn't have done and we over egged all of that. But, but in terms of how the Americans felt about the values that we stand for and, and not tolerating being attacked by nihilists that just wanted to tear everything down, that made me really proud. Absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
So you know, you said, you said divided. Where we are today as a nation being divided. This is, this is the world you've been in since like you said, 98. Right. You've been doing this 27 years. How do we get there? Because like you said in 9 11, when 911 happened, I was working on Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. I had just started a day before Glendale. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, 911 happens. You're seeing in New York, no one cared if you're Republican, Democrat, independent, white, black, Hispanic, Puerto Rican. Look man, where's your kid? Let's go look for him. Where's your daughter? Let's go look for her. Where's your husband, where's your wife? Where's your. This. It was a whole different thing, right. What's gotten it to be where it's at today? And do you see us going back to being united again?
Ian Bremmer
Not soon. I mean, honestly, not soon. But I'm an optimist. I think it's incredible that we're here. So of course it's possible. I think there are three big things that have happened. One is class. Division and mobility have become a lot harder in the US so I mean back in the 80s and 90s, the United States had some of the greatest class mobility of any advanced industrial democracy. Today it has some of the least. So you can predict a person's wealth in the United States on the basis of their parents wealth, much more than you can in other countries like in the UK or Germany or Japan or South Korea. That's not the American dream. Right. So the fact that a lot more young Americans today are not confident that they will have the opportunities that their parents or their grandparents or you or, and I have had, that's one reason I think. Second is identity politics. I think there was an enormous amount of immigration that came to the United States without a feeling that American leaders were caring about the people that were already here. That's particularly true on the illegal immigration side. But I think it's true generally. The Europeans have already gone through that and there's now consensus in Europe around that issue. The Americans are still very divided on that issue. And then the third is algorithmic, the third is the breakdown in media and our information space. Talk radio, cable news, social media, and increasingly AI, so that people around the world get their information in very, very segmented and fragmented ways that tear us apart. I think that those are the three biggest reasons why the United States today feels so much more divided than it did when you and I were growing up.
Patrick Bet-David
So you're putting three is social media, three use a different word. You said the. What was a word you used for the last.
Ian Bremmer
I said algorithmic.
Patrick Bet-David
Algorithm.
Ian Bremmer
But I mean, you know, even before that, I mean, you remember when you and I were kids, the conceit of advertising is that 50% of advertising dollars are completely wasted. We just don't know what 50%. So you just throw money at the wall. And you had three big networks and everyone listened to the same networks, they got the same news. So even before social media, when you think about how people started segmenting, when it was Lou Dobbs on cnn, you know, one of the first that really started segmenting Right. Or when it was in a Rush Limbaugh on talk radio. And definitely social media has done that, has amplified that to. In an exponential way. But this has been coming for a while now.
Patrick Bet-David
So you said something very interesting when you said, for Russia in 89 USSR, when Soviets saw, hey, do people want the same freedom that they have? Right. Like, when I lived in Iran, the way we got movies was bootleg. You didn't get movies because we didn't have access to movies. They're not going to show you the movies. You're going to see the movies or whatever, you know, they were showing us there, but we would see the movies and like, wow, that's what America looks like. I want the American dream. I want to have something like that. What, what was the mechanism or method that Russia saw what was happening to America where Russians revolted against their people? Because you'll hear the story about Reagan goes to, you know, meet with Gorbachev and he's like, hey, what can we do? So look at your people. They're all driving the same cars, all this. They're like, look at our stuff. Look what we got going on. You got to bring this here. Where it was almost as if Gorbachev was open to the idea. He was, okay. He was. So was it more the people pushing the change, or was it more Gorbachev saying, hey, man, I just feel like if I wanna be a better leader for my people, I think we have to open it up like they did.
Ian Bremmer
I would say, I mean, much as I wanna say, it was the people pushing for change. And certainly, you know, you had for years and years and years, the Americans standing tall with those captive nation parades. And all of the people behind the iron wanted independence and wanted freedom. And we had dissidents that would get to the United States illegally, right? And they would become these incredibly inspirational stories about how much better it was in the US and how repressive it was in the Soviet Union. And definitely there were a lot of big demonstrations that happened first in the Eastern bloc countries and then in the Baltics, which had independence more recently, and then in Ukraine, and then even in places like Azerbaijan, Central Asia, right? You'd see it. But, you know, after that happened, Gorbachev started leaning into it. When Gorbachev first became General Secretary of the Communist Party, the first things he did were not reform. The first thing he did was like the anti alcohol campaign. He was kind of like Xi Jinping in the early days, right? He was like, no, no, no, we just need. We need more control. And then when he realized that this wasn't working, that the economy was falling apart, that they were falling desperately behind the Americans and there was no way to really fix it, he decided to go full on experimental reforms. And he did three different things, right? First, he opens the economy so that people can actually start their own businesses, they can experiment with cooperatives. And that was perestroika, that was restructuring. And then he created openness in the information space, glasnost, right? And then he did a third thing, which was self accounting. He devolved power to these local republics and let the Armenians have control for local Armenia and let the Azeris have control for local Armenia. It's called Khosrashot. And he did those three things simultaneously, which is incredible for the people of the former Soviet Union, but, I mean, was just giving away the keys to the kingdom. The Soviets no longer had the ability to repress, to impose control in a way that say in Iran today, the Iranians are, even though the Iranian people are desperate, right, to have freedoms, the Iranian people are desperate to be independent from the Islamic Republic. But, but the, but the military in Iran has absolutely zero willingness to give away that kind of power. Gorbachev did that.
Patrick Bet-David
Well, so this is where I'm going. The reason why I'm asking this question. So do you think because 89, no social media, you got TV, couple channels, you got in a, you know, in Iran, we have two channels and it's both ran by the government, so they control propaganda. What to tell you, you know, how terrible America is and the Evil Empire and all this other stuff.
Ian Bremmer
But you had Voice of America that they were able to get.
Patrick Bet-David
We couldn't get it. We only had the two channels, right. That we could get in Iran. But today you got social media.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, right.
Patrick Bet-David
So when you're seeing social media where kids have access to it in different parts of the world and some countries are not happy about the fact that they have, you know, some, you know, social media platforms are available there. Do you think that's maybe the reason why some countries are just sitting there saying, you're seeing what happened with Trump in 2016 and him coming out with, you know, the campaign that he had and was successful, him beating a Hillary Clinton type of a caliber person, which was, this is not going to happen. This is David versus Goliath. Do you think this is why you're seeing a lot of melees? Do you think, do you think this is why you're seeing the Orban? Do you think this is why you're Seeing Maloney, do you think this is why you're seeing folks that are kind of seeing what's happened in America where other countries, citizens are like, look, I kind of want that. That makes sense to me. These other ideas are not making sense to me. So it's harder for the establishment today to keep control because of social media versus what it was in 89?
Ian Bremmer
Oh, absolutely. I think that Bolsonaro doesn't win in Brazil in the previous cycle if it's not for Facebook. I think that a lot of these leaders, that these populist anti establishment leaders, many on the right, some on the left. I mean, you look at AMLO and now Shanebaum in Mexico, Same basic playbook, right? Which is the establishment is corrupt and entrenched. There's a deep state, they don't care about you. We're going to do something completely different. That's how they win. And I think that that social media and the ability to communicate directly with the people with comparatively limited amount of funds available is, is a completely. It's a game changer for. And it undermines the establishment in a lot of these places.
Patrick Bet-David
So who, who. So the establishment, if we go through themselves, like there's a. I want to get your thoughts on this year where the concern is one of the things that Trump did. You saw Jim Acosta just got fired. Whatever you want to call him, stepping away from cnn. Whatever, whatever you want to call it. It's a way of saying, look, if you're going to quit, we're okay with it. What do you want to do? Go ahead. We don't have to pay the severance and all this other stuff. So he walks. Okay, but he's the OG guy with fake news, right? You're fake news, that you're fake news. And then Trump started saying fake news, fake news, fake news, fake news, fake news. And then, oh, shit. He exposed a company Ted Turner started that was a very successful company, CNN. And now they're $400 million down there letting go of 200 million people, 200 employees. MSNBC now for sale. CNN now for sale. Fox. Top 500 of 500 shows since I think Election Day, November 5th, have been all Fox shows. And the first one is five or seven, I think was somebody that was cnn. I don't know who it was. Why do you think, you know, folks who before were like, well, no, this is how you got to think. No, I mean, you know, I got to take this shot. No, I got, I got to do this. No, this is what they're telling Me to do the level of disruption of social media to the establishment and media, not just social media. Media. What effects you think social media has played for people to kind of start saying, wait a minute, I don't believe you. You're full of. You just try to play games with me. You. You lied. No, no, this is not cool. What just happened here? Where an rfk. I'll never forget first time Joe Rogan had Bobby Kennedy on his podcast, he says, I thought you were a kook. I think that's the word he used. He says, I thought you were a kook before I had you on here. I'm like, who is this guy? What are you talking about? Vaccines are good for you. All this stuff is good for you. And then, you know, like, maybe, maybe he's got something interesting to talk. Some of the stuff he's saying is kind of interesting. I'm interested, I'm interested, I'm interested. And then now yesterday, his hearing, one of the guys says, rfk, you know, Robert, would you consider yourself a conspiracy theorist? And he says, you know, a lot of people say that, but was I a conspiracy theorist? When you guys were told. We were all told that vaccines, if you take it, you won't be able to give the virus to another person. Did I get that wrong? How about. How about the red eye when you guys did the red dye? Did I get that wrong? How about when you guys said this? He's kind of going through it, right? Do you think the chokehold the establishment media, you know, even our educational system had on the populace dev. Now Trump and others have broken, and these guys don't know how to get control back of it like they used to once have.
Ian Bremmer
So I'm a political scientist, not an epidemiologist. So I'm not in a good position to try to debate on where RFK is and isn't right or wrong. But I will tell you more.
Patrick Bet-David
That's actually not where I'm going. I know I'm not going to.
Ian Bremmer
I understand, but I'm saying more, but more broadly, right? In terms of whether I think the establishment media has gone way too far on a bunch of issues. You look at the COVID starting with a lab leak in Wuhan, China, and that was something that clearly was a narrative that the establishment media decided that they did not want to go ahead with. And I think they did a lot of damage to themselves as a consequence of that. As the Biden administration itself, in the last weeks of their presidency, did a study and came out and said, yeah, this looks actually very plausible to us. Well, they weren't saying that, you know, a couple of years ago. I think those sorts of things undermine. I think that when Fauci was aware that, you know, that N95 masks could be effective, but other masks weren't, and he wasn't saying that to the people because he didn't want to cause panic and there weren't enough of them. Well, that comes back and bites you in the ass, you know, when you're not being transparent and accountable to people. Now, more broadly, more broadly than the stuff around disease and epidemiology is, I think that the Democrats have gone way too far on a bunch of issues that do not align with where the base of the country actually is the base of the population. I think the Republicans have done that on one big issue, right? For the Republicans, it was abortion. We had for 50 years, Roe versus Wade, call it settled law, call it unsettled law. It was very messy, right? And it made nobody completely happy. But it happened to reflect where the average American was on abortion. And therefore it was a pretty good compromise. And when a whole bunch of Republicans decided that they were going to push and push and push the bounds, they ended up losing in a lot of different places, right? And Trump and Vance worked really hard to pull that back over the last campaign and say, hey, hey, hey, we're not trying to like do a national abortion ban and stuff like that. Well, the Democrats got over their skis on every identity issue, right? They went way, way farther than the average American was willing to tolerate. They ended up getting completely captured by a small number of elite, well educated progressives in urban centers. And they lost the rest of the country on those issues. On migration, they completely lost the country and decided they were gonna stand for some, some progressive values that the average American would not tolerate. And I think that when you do that and when the media that supports you reflects that, you lose Americans. Now, is the answer to be found on social media given, you know, sort of the. I'll do my own research, I don't need to be credentialized. There's massive amounts of verified people that aren't really people, they're bots that they're. Algorithmically, you're promoting an immense amount of disinformation. No, I don't think social media is a better answer for civil society. I don't think that we will become more unified by leaning into algorithmic learning. But I do think that establishment media, mainstream media has destroyed their credibility in the United States over the past 10.
Patrick Bet-David
Years, how does the Democratic Party recover? I had Ro Khanna here just a day ago. Yeah, just a day.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
By the way, great conversation. We had him just a day ago. And we're sitting there talking about what policies do you have left for the average day to day person to agree with you? That's not an extremist. What do you have left? Like, I'm actually curious because you used to be the party that's against war. Now it's the Republicans. You used to be about, you know, hey, working Americans, rich, got richer under your term and gas prices went up under you. You used to. What, what part of it do they have the edge over? Argument wise, purely argument wise. I don't know what argument they're winning. You know, hey, no taxes on tips. That's low and middle income earners, waiters, waitresses. He said that first. Two weeks later, Kamala says that, hey, you know, we're going to finish the war. I just don't want people to die. The other side is causing. What argument do they have left?
Ian Bremmer
Well, if you're becoming a party that wins with wealthy Americans and loses with labor union members, loses with the working class, loses with middle class, clearly the Democrats have lost the plot on this, right? I mean, Republicans this time around, one with average Americans, that's insane. It's. What's a big difference from where they were.
Patrick Bet-David
By a billionaire, by a media guy, right? How did he connect with them? Where the average guy's like, dude, that guy's gonna take care of me much more than this guy that's from Delaware. I feel like he's the one. I feel like he's gonna do a better job than Kamala Harris.
Ian Bremmer
So two, I'm gonna have two answers for you, please. And they're different, very different answers.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay.
Ian Bremmer
One is that the Democrats really believed that democracy needed to be on the agenda, right? That this was, you know, if it was just an issues election, they weren't gonna win. They had to go after Trump because he's like, you know, gonna destroy democracy.
Patrick Bet-David
Right.
Ian Bremmer
There were very few Americans that actually voted who believed that democracy was the most important issue. But of those that did, they voted more Trump than Harris. And isn't that fascinating? And that is something the Democrats.
Patrick Bet-David
How do you handle that? This is like. Were you shocked?
Ian Bremmer
No, not at all.
Patrick Bet-David
So you saw this coming?
Ian Bremmer
I thought Trump was going to win. Yes, but that'll be. This will be my second argument. But let's start with this one, which is, yes, Trump has done a bunch of Things that do not reflect that. He is someone that really cares about long term rule of law in this country. In my view, he is not the poster child for, like, great American governments, governance, standards and values. Historically, I wouldn't put him in that category. But so many people in this country believe that the reason democracy is broken is not because of Trump. He's a symptom. The reason democracy is broken is because for decades you have special interests in this country that have captured the political system and the uniparty and the deep state and call it whatever you want, but the average person sees that the leaders don't care about them, the elites don't care about them, the political leaders, the business leaders, the media leaders, the university leaders, the whole damn lot. And so why would they vote for Trump? Because they believe that just keeping on, keeping on voting for the establishment time and time and time again is going to do more wars and send poor kids to Afghanistan and Iraq and God knows where else and promote free trade that takes, they believe, jobs away from average Americans. Support, you know, collective security and sending lots of money to other countries. And they're like, well, that may be good in principle, but if you're not going to help me, why should I support that? If it's just going to help the top 1%, why should I support that? I think globalization is good, but globalization is only good if your leaders also take care of you. So I think the fact is you have lots and lots of Americans that feel like they needed someone that was prepared to break the system, to challenge the establishment. And that has happened in lots of countries, not just in the United States. But Trump took advantage of that. And not just the first time, but the second time, when they knew exactly who he was, when it wasn't an experiment, when he's already gone through the impeachments and was almost assassinated and got convicted and everything else. And people said, no, no, no. Exactly. He's fighting against those guys. I want this guy. Now, there's a second reason that Trump won, and this one is a, is not an American reason, but it's really important. I know you've seen how many elections we've had all around the world over the last 12 months. We have more coming in the next few months.
Patrick Bet-David
That's right.
Ian Bremmer
Overwhelmingly incumbents lost. And that is mostly a hangover from the pandemic. That is, this was. I mean, of all the things you and I have experienced as Americans, the pandemic has been the most disruptive in our lives. Right. Every American felt that don't care, you walk of life. The economy was completely disrupted. Supply chains were completely shut down. A massive amount of money, trillions and trillions of dollars were spent. And also, people didn't move. They didn't go from state to state, they didn't go from country. Country. You finish the pandemic. Inflation is at historically high levels. Migration is at historically high levels. Any leader that is holding the bag around the world is going to lose in that environment. And here's what's interesting, is that if you were an alien looking down at all the elections over the last year, the US election was one of the closest. I mean, you would be forgiven for asking, why did Harris do so well? And the answer is not that she was a good candidate. The answer is that the US economy was doing comparatively better and inflation was comparatively lower than what they had in the Europe. In Europe for example, or in Canada, for example. And that's why that election was close. That's why despite everything we've been talking about, Trump didn't break 50%.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, I mean, he. She lost seven states. Oh, I know, seven for swing states, but.
Ian Bremmer
And, and I'm just comparing it to other elections around the world.
Patrick Bet-David
But then this is what it makes me think about. Rob, you know what I want to know of all, and maybe you already know the answer to this question, of the incumbents that lost, you said majority of them lost?
Ian Bremmer
Almost all of them, yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Almost all of them, yeah. What percentage of them were liberals and more democratic, socialist, progressive policies that were aligned with what America and Biden did? What percentage of them?
Ian Bremmer
And this is for the 20. 22 midterms?
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, no, not midterms. We're talking 24 in the last 20 known for the biggest election, you know, globally. I want to know what percentage of the incumbents were lost, had identical policies to Biden? The way they handled Covid, not the way maybe a DeSantis handled Covid.
Ian Bremmer
So look, interesting point, right, is UK was one of these elections and the Conservatives got completely hammered and labor came in. Why? Anti incumbent. It's like whoever happens to be in power through that, it's not about the policies.
Patrick Bet-David
Japan think so?
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely. Because it was such an incredible shock and people just said, I want these leaders out. I don't care who they are, I want them out. I mean, you know, in India, Modi, who's one of the most popular leaders of any democracy in the world and massively underperforms his expectations and has to have a coalition government in Japan, LDP leader. Right Again, center Right. It's kind of a uniparty now has to govern in coalition. Now there are plenty of examples on the other side too. But I think that the through. The through point here is that if you are in a position of power in that environment, it's a real democracy and the election isn't rigged. You just got hammered and that's. That is the reality.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. Did you ask Chad Rob, is that the one you asked? I did.
Ian Bremmer
That's where that information.
Patrick Bet-David
So it says over 80 countries representing nearly half of the. But can you find out how many of them are. Okay, that's what you're doing.
Ian Bremmer
This gave me United States against.
Patrick Bet-David
I want, I want the world. World. So it says over 80 countries amongst democracies, more than 80% of incumbent partners experience a decline in support compared to previous elections with many suffering historic losses.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, right. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. But I would, I would want to know based on what I understand with UK they had a lot of weird things that they were dealing with and I wonder how. Okay, so maybe let me go to a different question with this.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Do you think, do you think if it was Biden and he doesn't step away, do you think he beats.
Ian Bremmer
Oh God, no.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, so neither one of them. No, neither one of them.
Ian Bremmer
I mean Biden gets hammered much worse.
Patrick Bet-David
How about Josh Shapiro?
Ian Bremmer
I think that anyone in the. It would have been easier for Shapiro because at least Shapiro wasn't as much of an incumbent. I mean, Harris and Biden are responsible.
Patrick Bet-David
Put him in the same camp.
Ian Bremmer
Put him in the same camp.
Patrick Bet-David
How about Newsom?
Ian Bremmer
Look again, I would say if you are looking at a change election, then you know, even Josh Shapiro and Newsom.
Patrick Bet-David
Would be seen in politics and policies.
Ian Bremmer
And politics and politics.
Patrick Bet-David
But even if you go to uk, how do they handle Covid? I don't know if you handle Covid the way DeSantis handled Covid.
Ian Bremmer
No.
Patrick Bet-David
You know, even if you go to a lot of these, there was some people you can consider conservative, but they still weren't handling it the way it was. Like open, feel free. What do you want to do? I mean the best state in handling Covid was probably the state of Florida. My opinion, you may disagree. My opinion. Right. On what happened? No. The reason why I'm asking this, I don't know if it's all Covid related. Maybe it is, maybe it's not. A lot of things happened that were just weird. Like you said that earlier, they try to really push on the identity politics a little bit too much and they.
Ian Bremmer
Try to say A lot too much.
Patrick Bet-David
Cave to the 1 percenters who are very loud and hey, pay attention to us while we're going to do this and we're going to. We're like, they're sitting here talking about RFK is not qualified to be the HHS secretary of. You know, did you forget Biden's hhs? This is him. This was our Biden's HHS direct. I mean, you know who this is. Rachel Levine. You know, we're supposed to sit here and say he's qualified, but RFK is not. So to the average person, logic made no sense the last four years on what happened. And for me. So maybe let me go a different direction because now you're given good perspectives here. Trump does Trump win. Take Bobby. That goes with Trump. Take Tulsi. Take Rogan.
Ian Bremmer
Both Democrats.
Patrick Bet-David
Take Musk.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, okay.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
With which one of them does he.
Ian Bremmer
Not win as a.
Patrick Bet-David
So say that Musk doesn't get behind him and puts a quarter of a billion dollars and go to Pennsylvania to campaign for the days that he did and does the Twitter spaces that gets a billion views.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Say Tulsi doesn't go to Trump.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Say Bobby doesn't come out and walk out. Say, you know, who's the other one I'm missing? I'm missing one. Tulsi Bobby, Elon. Musk. Say mustard with.
Ian Bremmer
When you said Rogan. Yeah, of course with Rogan.
Patrick Bet-David
Right, yeah. Which one of them would he have still won?
Ian Bremmer
Look, I think that again, the fact that we had. And it's still going on, I mean, the Germans just had their government implode. Right. And Canada just had Trudeau implode. I mean, we are seeing across the board that this is a horrible time to be an existing leader and be attached to whatever it is that's happening, attached to this part of the economic cycle, this part of the migration cycle, this part of the information cycle that goes with that. So, I mean, my view was that Trump was not a prohibitive favorite, but a fairly strong favorite, irrespective of each of those individual components. Like, it was gonna be a fairly herculean task for the Democrats to hold power for another four years after that, given where inflation was, given where migration was and how they weren't able to handle either of those things. Gaza was also an issue.
Patrick Bet-David
Right.
Ian Bremmer
Because there were a lot of people that didn't turn for Trump but didn't vote at all. They lost a fair number of young progressives because they were seen as too close.
Patrick Bet-David
Free Palestine community.
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely. That Hurt them. Right, of course. So, yeah, I mean, I do, I think that it matters that Elon threw $250 million and actually targeted it. Well, in seven swing states. Yeah, I think that matter. Do I think RFK helped with people that might otherwise not have shown up? Yeah, I think that mattered. All those things matter.
Patrick Bet-David
But you're saying without them, he would have still won.
Ian Bremmer
I think I still would have expected very close race, but I thought Trump was going to win this race.
Patrick Bet-David
So Bobby doesn't come out. Tulsi, Elon Rogan, none of these guys come out. You're saying he still wins without him?
Ian Bremmer
I do. I absolutely do.
Patrick Bet-David
Well, that's. So then, then. Okay, case study wise, the part I'm going with is the following. Here's what I'm trying to see if it happened or not. Okay. I'm trying to really put myself in a place to believe what you're saying is the reason why that happened is to say nobody was going to win. It could have been anybody as president. And even if, let's just say, let's completely change it up. Let's say Somehow, some way, 2020, Trump steps out and let's say Desantis became president in 2020. I'm just making things up here. You're saying even DeSantis wouldn't have won on his first term.
Ian Bremmer
I'm saying DeSantis in, in 2024 wouldn't have won, would have had a really good shot.
Patrick Bet-David
No, no, no, no. Hear me out. What I'm saying, stay with me here. Okay, so Trump wins 2016.
Ian Bremmer
Yes.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. 2020, election year. Covid starts whatever March 10th. They shut down. You know, all this stuff's going on. Great. So say in 2020, Trump's like, I'm so sick of this. I'm gonna go back to my regular life.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And guess what? I think Desantis done a good job. He gets behind DeSantis and DeSantis runs for president.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, in 2020, you didn't have the same issue.
Patrick Bet-David
Hang on one second. So then say DeSantis wins. He's the president. 2021.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
It's his first term. He's now going to compete for a second term as an incumbent.
Ian Bremmer
Right.
Patrick Bet-David
But he's going to go against who? Kamala Newsom, Josh and all those guys.
Ian Bremmer
Someone. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
You're saying DeSantis probably still lost.
Ian Bremmer
He would have lost. He probably would have lost. I think the anti incumbent sentiment is overwhelming.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't know about that.
Ian Bremmer
I know. I get you. I, I all I'm saying is that.
Patrick Bet-David
Look, well, let's debate it, because I want to. I want to tear apart my argument because I want to really go with it. And tell me, Pat, I still think desantis would have lost.
Ian Bremmer
Look, we don't know what desantis would have governed.
Patrick Bet-David
What I'm saying to you is. Well, no, let's just say DeSantis governed the way he governed the state of Florida. If DeSantis governs the way he governed the state of Florida, do you think DeSantis would have won 2024 election?
Ian Bremmer
I think he would have probably had a better shot. Right. In the same way that Biden staying in is like a complete disaster because he clearly is not capable of running the country for four years. Right. It's just not possible. So, again, I hear you, but I think it's important. Americans need to look outside the US More than they do. There are a lot of democracies out there. They're facing a lot of the same problems. We talk about trade, we talk about migration, we talk about the media space. This is not. You talked. You asked about Facebook and social media, and you asked me about Milei. You could have asked about Bukele in El Salvador, all these leaders. So where you're willing to talk with me about all of these, like, grassroots factors that are causing things all over the world. But then when we talk about the impact that has on an election after a unique, extraordinary global time of crisis. Global time of crisis. And it turns out that.
Patrick Bet-David
That.
Ian Bremmer
That leads to overwhelming pushback.
Patrick Bet-David
May I present. Let me present it to you. And tear apart the argument. So, yeah, let's say in a fantasy world, Trump steps out in 2020.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And he says, guys, you know what? I'm not dealing with this. I want to go spend time with my grandkids and go golf. I got 20 more years to live. I want to enjoy my life. I can't stand politics. Plausible. I'm out.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
DeSantis comes in, I get behind him. DeSantis wins. 2021. You know, January, whatever it is, DeSantis the president. There is no J6. Okay. Okay. He wins. Let's go through which events he would have handled in a different way. Okay, so now do you think DeSantis being a president, Trump still tweets.
Ian Bremmer
No.
Patrick Bet-David
No. Meaning. Do you think DeSantis becomes President 2021. Do you think Trump is still going to be loud and say stuff and not as much. Okay, maybe not as much. Okay. Do you think DeSantis being president, the border would have been handled the same exact way.
Ian Bremmer
No, I think the border.
Patrick Bet-David
Stay with me here.
Ian Bremmer
That's important.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. Stay with me here. So I don't think the border would have been handled the same exact way. So we're in 2008, the unaccompanied alien children, UACS in 2008, Bush's. Last year we had 8,000 UACS, where in 2022 we had 148,000. It's not going to happen under DeSantis. Okay. So America was sick of that. Number two, do you think he would have allowed for the amount of abuse that took place for kids to not go to school and leaving kids closed and been able to control with the funding for some states that are abusing and they're not letting kids go back to school? Probably not. Okay. Probably not on how he would have handled it, because he would have probably shared similar policies that he was doing in Florida, across the board, nationwide.
Ian Bremmer
But Democrats in opposition also wouldn't have been leaning into the crazy populists, the crazy progressive stuff on identity politics to the degree that they were when they have in the White House.
Patrick Bet-David
Stay on Covid to me. Stay on this Covid part.
Ian Bremmer
Okay, fine.
Patrick Bet-David
So now we're talking Covid and school shutdown. Okay. If they opposed him and they said, who the hell you think you are? Our job is to protect the kids and we're going to be able to protect it. And Mayor Rio Grossa, text us if you see people that are driving in the streets because we told people to stay home if they're non essential and da, da, da, da, da. Okay. If they oppose DeSantis and DeSantis is saying this policy, it would have backfired on the progressive still. Right. Let's go to the third one. Do you think a war would have happened with Russia and Ukraine? I don't think so.
Ian Bremmer
Yes.
Patrick Bet-David
Do you think is. You think it would have still happened?
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
Do you think Hamas and Israel still happens?
Ian Bremmer
Probably, yes.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, so you're putting those two as a yes. So meaning.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
You're saying Putin wouldn't necessarily have the fear towards, you know, DeSantis that he put on Trump. Okay, fair.
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, fair. That's fine. Let's stay there. So then the next one, progressives talking about puberty blockers for kids and the LGBTQ and the transgender. We have to make sure we do this. And a Randy Levine. What is his name?
Ian Bremmer
Rachel.
Patrick Bet-David
Rachel Levine.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
He's not going to be in there.
Ian Bremmer
Again, less of an issue. But because the Democrats aren't in the White House, Right.
Patrick Bet-David
You're right. So that's exactly where I'm going with you. Because the argument I'm trying to make with you is the incumbent wouldn't have lost here if a DeSantis was president.
Ian Bremmer
I hear you.
Patrick Bet-David
Because I think it's policy based. Not just because all incumbents lost. Whoever it would have been, they would have lost. I don't know if I buy that argument.
Ian Bremmer
Again, I think that inflation in the United States absolutely would have been at the same rough levels if we had desantis for the last four years.
Patrick Bet-David
Tell me why? In what way?
Ian Bremmer
Because the reason for inflation in the US and globally is because you had these incredible. First of all, because you needed to throw a lot of money in the. In the teeth of the pandemic. That had to happen.
Patrick Bet-David
Sure.
Ian Bremmer
And secondly, because you shut down global supply chain and when it reopened, it was reopening at different times in different places. Remember, China had zero Covid for way too long. Europe was opening at. Sometimes it wasn't us. Different times as well. The ships aren't in the right places. You're paying massively more to get all of that is happening. That's an enormously important issue.
Patrick Bet-David
Fine.
Ian Bremmer
That's a pocketbook issue. People don't. They don't care if their wages are going up, if they're paying more for eggs on a regular basis.
Patrick Bet-David
Listen, used car prices. Used to. I couldn't believe a guy offered me to buy my. I bought my car for $100,000. Guy offers me $110,000. Two and a half years later, I'm like, what are you talking about? He says, yeah, because the chips, whatever's going on with the chips, you know that they all the. You went to a watch store, you're trying to buy a watch. There are no watches out there. They're not even making watches. Look, we don't have any watch. Everything is empty. So you're right. I'm with you on that.
Ian Bremmer
So I'm prepared to accept that. If you ask me, would DeSantis have been a stronger incumbent in an environment where incumbents are getting crushed everywhere around the world, would he have had more of a chance?
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
Yes. But do I think he would have won? Would I bet on that? Given that, I would say no.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, so you said earlier you used the word deep state, and you use one other word. I don't know what word you use, but before the deep state, but something around the lines of that same community. Do you. Do you. For somebody that you've spoken at World Economic Forum multiple times. You've. You're New York time bestseller. You've sat down with a lot of different people. You've been shown in many different meetings. With some people that would be considered globalist. You know, some people would consider them deep state and all this stuff.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Do you believe at this phase in 2025, with what we saw the last four years, do you believe there is such thing as a deep state? Or you think that's just a term that's thrown around as a fear porn word?
Ian Bremmer
Like all of these things, they resonate because the basis of the argument has some truth in it. So if you ask me, is there a deep state in the sense that there are people at the World Economic Forum or the Council of Foreign Relations or the Bilderberg Group, all of which I have attended. Right. That are actually making. That have their hands on the levers of power and are strategically figuring out here is how we're going to manipulate and stay in power? No, these organizations have virtually no power in and of themselves and they serve as networking organizations to help people get deals done.
Patrick Bet-David
You think Klaus Schwab is a good guy?
Ian Bremmer
I didn't say that. I said that. That's not. That wasn't the question you asked. Klaus Schwab is someone I know and have known for a long time. He is not someone that I would say is a warm, fuzzy sort of classical liberal, care about everybody in the world. The fact is that I wrote a book, not my latest one, but two books ago, called Us vs Them, the failure of Globalism. I think globalism has utterly failed in the United States and around the world. A large number of incredibly wealthy people that have bought access to power have used that to advance their own interests against the interests of people that are now saying, we're not going to tolerate that anymore, I think that's an incredible, incredible injustice. So I'm not a globalist. I believe in globalization because in the last 50 years we've managed to reduce poverty and increase a global middle class that can actually live longer. We've managed to like, educate women. We've managed to urbanize, we've managed to reduce infant poverty. We've, you know, all of, we educate people. Those are all great things. Globalization is wonderful. I love the fact that people and goods and services and ideas move faster and faster around the world, that people like you and I, our families can get the hell out of where we were and make something of ourselves. I believe in all of that. But globalism, the idea that if you can get your Hands on power. You can promote these things and not care about the people in your own country. I don't accept that at all. At all. But my point is, because you asked me about the deep state. You didn't ask me about, like, is Klaus Schwab a good guy? That the deep state is true insofar as. As there are a class, a tiny class of people that don't care whether it's Democrats or Republicans, they will find a way to ensure that they are close to power and that they are using that to get outcomes that benefit them and not outcomes that are free and fair competition in a well regulated free market. And who gets screwed? The average American gets screwed.
Patrick Bet-David
Of course they do. Of course they do.
Ian Bremmer
So is that a deep state? I would argue that that is a component of. That's a kleptocratic oligarchical system. It's a little bit like Berezovsky in the early Go Go Russian days. Was Berezovsky and Yeltsin, were they good for the average Russian citizen after the Soviet Union collapsed? No, it was a disaster for them. They managed to take the wealth of the country and put it in their own pockets.
Patrick Bet-David
So deep state. Let's stay on that and then we'll go to Klaus Schwab. So let's talk about deep state. So you think, yes, probably there's a deep state on both sides. Fair. Okay. So the question that I would ask when I think about the deep state, people that don't want to give up the card. Right. The control card, whatever you want to call it. Right. Mitch McConnell, Zuckerberg. I would put the politician guys first. Let's go. McConnell's, Schumer's, Pelosi's, some of those guys that like to have the power and the control. Right. So put them there. The story that came out with Barry Weiss and Speaker Johnson, I don't know if you saw that, where she's doing a podcast with Speaker Johnson and he says, for nine weeks, I'm the Speaker of the flipping House and I'm trying to get a meeting with Joe Biden. Everybody tell me he's.
Ian Bremmer
I remember that. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
He's busy.
Ian Bremmer
He's. They're protecting. They're protecting him.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. He's like, hey, President, you sign. I never signed that. What do you mean you didn't sign this? You signed this for. You signed this. I never signed it.
Ian Bremmer
The NATO 75th anniversary in Washington. I met with world leaders that told me in their meetings with Biden, Biden didn't Recognize them. I mean, it was extraordinary that Biden still was running for president at that point. It's extraordinary. Obviously there were people around him that were doing everything possible to ensure that the actual state of his health on a day to day basis was obscured from, from the rest of. I completely. I accept that.
Patrick Bet-David
Right. So, but when you have that. And then he says, we're sitting in the office and he says, who's in the room? Hakeem Jeffries, I think he said, he said Kamala Harris and one other name, Schumer. He said, can you guys give me a few minutes to talk to the Speaker? And they almost didn't want to leave.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And they did.
Ian Bremmer
And then he spoke with Johnson directly.
Patrick Bet-David
So. So the deep state. Yeah. Okay. If you sit there and you think about the deep state, again, go to DeSantis. If DeSantis was in and he's dealing with that, you think he's going to be helping those guys out?
Ian Bremmer
Helping the Democrats?
Patrick Bet-David
No. The deep state, whoever. You think the deep state's going to like him? You think the deep state's going to. You think the deep state would like a DeSantis?
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
Tell me why.
Ian Bremmer
Well, I mean, I think about more.
Patrick Bet-David
Than they would like a Trump.
Ian Bremmer
More than they would like a Trump. It's interesting. Trump is more transactional and more pay for play. So if you're someone like Jeff Yass, he will flip on TikTok because you've given money to his campaign. So, I mean, in a way that I think DeSantis would be less overtly transactional. I think that's a fair point you make. But I mean, if I think about how comfortable an awful lot of big donors are with all of these people, I mean, it is true that more billionaires, a larger number of billionaires gave money to Harris than gave money to Trump. That's certainly true. But if you ask me how the American system feels broken, it's not because we're becoming a dictatorship. It's because special interests with a lot of money ensure that they pay for almost every congressional race, House and Senate, Democrat and Republican, and the presidential race. And it's $3 billion and it takes 24 months. And it's subversion of democracy. And the idea that that's true only of one party, not the other, is insane. It's insane. So we all know that, I mean, like, no matter who comes in, you know, the people that are doing really, really well in the United States keep.
Patrick Bet-David
On keeping on the comparison is not even close to. If you look at the money that go goes from special interest to the left and the right. It's not even close. Have you ever looked at the numbers.
Ian Bremmer
At the total number?
Patrick Bet-David
What kind of numbers are being raised? Have you seen how much money a Trump raised versus a Biden? Have you seen how much of a Trump raise versus a Kamala? You're seeing where $1.5 billion for Kamala in a span of six months disappeared. And, you know, celebrities are getting paid.
Ian Bremmer
I certainly saw how much more Harris was able to raise in this last cycle than Trump did. But if you look at Senate races for Democrats and Republicans across the board, I think those numbers are pretty comparable. And those are big races.
Patrick Bet-David
I'm not. I'm not. But when you. When you. I'm talking.
Ian Bremmer
But you're asking about DeSantis. So, I mean, I'm just saying DeSantis raised a lot of money, Right?
Patrick Bet-David
He did raise a lot of money. But I'm going back to the idea that, why is it that special interest groups, like, if you go to Rob, can you pull up presidential campaign contributions, like how much they've raised by. By president. When you see Biden's number, I mean, go to images, if you could. By president. Yeah, I don't think that's the one. There's one that shows how much each of them raised.
Ian Bremmer
I think Brandon may have sent it to me. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And Biden's number is astronomical on what he raised. They're not giving the money to him because they believe on how great of a speech he gives and how great he's going to negotiate.
Ian Bremmer
Of course not.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
Again, I would compare the United States with any other advanced industrial democracy. You look at the Republicans, you look at the Democrats, and you would say, wow, the United States is so out of whack compared to every other country. You know, you have an election in Canada and you're talking about raising like, you know, sort of tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars. Germany. I have friends that are running in Germany right now. These are tiny, tiny races, and you're not able to self fund in the way you can in the United States.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, so check this out. Watch this. Okay. Can you. Can you zoom in a little bit? Yes. So check this out. 84. Who runs in 84? Okay. 84 is Reagan.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
77 million versus 149.
Ian Bremmer
Yep.
Patrick Bet-David
Go to 88. Okay. He's running on a second term. Of course he's going to raise more money because he's on a second term. 92.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Bush senior. Okay. The VP becomes a president 96. Clinton. I think that's Clinton goes against Bush. Still. Look at red 2000. Now go from 2000. Okay, blue, blue. Look at Obama blue 2012. Obama blue, 2016. Hillary blue. Look at that one right there. $3.1 billion. And then go to 24. Trump against. You know, the number of money going to Republican candidates versus Democratic candidates. What's that?
Ian Bremmer
206 million. Because obviously the Republicans got a lot more money than 206 million.
Patrick Bet-David
Go a little bit lower. Rob, this is statista. Okay, Go and look at the top so he can see exactly what the top is. Top spending of President Kennedy, majority political department from 1984 to spending. This is spending. So when you look at that kind of money that's coming in, why is special interest so interested in the Democratic Party? Is it because they're bought? Is it because they'll take money and do anything for them? Why are they putting more money on the other side? See, to me when I'm looking at this and the reason why I went back and asked you a question earlier where I said I had Ro Khanna here, I'm like, what is left for you guys? Is it the fact that there's just more money coming to you? So because there's more money coming to you, it makes it seem like you guys got the policies or was the last four years during COVID so phenomenal because they went so aggressive on the offensive that the American people finally said, oh, I got you. No, we're not doing this anymore. You guys can give as much money as you want to her or him. I'm not, I'm done. I don't care how much money you give him. I'm going this way. Okay. I don't believe you guys. I think all of you guys are bought on this side. You guys are for sale on this side. The moment Trump wins, Bill Gates has a three hour meeting with Trump. Zuckerberg goes over there and they all go. But this is very different though. And they're all going to donate and they did. A lot of them give a million dollars, two million dollars.
Ian Bremmer
Absolutely, yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
So where I'm going is, is this a monumental moment where the Democratic Party took a. Got a black eye the way the Republican Party got a Black Eye in 1960, 1964 with Barry Goldwater. Where the Republicans went from having 64% of the African American voters voting for Democrat, the other side would be Republican. It went from 64 in 1960 to 92 in 1964. And they lost a black vote until 2024.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
So do you think this was a catastrophic event for the democratic party in 2024 or not? It's just normal ebbs and flows. It goes back and forth. That's what I'm trying to see, especially for someone like you.
Ian Bremmer
Look, I think that the country is so much more divided. There are so many fewer votes that are up for grabs today than there were 50 years ago in the United States. I mean, at the end of the day, you're talking about a very small number of people in a very small number of districts. And otherwise, people are reliably red and they're reliably blue. It's very hard to flip most of those people. Most of those places. There are a lot more independents in the United States now than they were before, but those independents reliably lean with a party or another, even if they're not a part of that party.
Patrick Bet-David
That's fair. Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
So I. I think that what we are talking about right now is a country that is. That has most of its population that has decided that they are on Team A or Team B and the other team is an enemy. And that's a serious problem right now. It was at least really good in 2024 that nobody thought the election was rigged. It was good that everyone accepts that Trump is actually president.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't know If I think 2025, the other side. Think the other side's the enemy. Actually. Don't believe that right now. I believe that the last five years. I don't believe that right now. Let me. Let me give you an idea why. Yeah. And I'll, you know, push back. Bezos goes. Have a good meeting. Wall Street Journal this week. If you go to WSJ's YouTube channel. Go to YouTube channel. They interviewed Bill Gates. I don't know if you saw that.
Ian Bremmer
I saw it. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
12 minute interview.
Ian Bremmer
Good things.
Patrick Bet-David
He said good things about Trump. Can you imagine, like, a world where. Yeah, this was five days ago. It's actually a very good interview. I watch. I'm like, okay, good.
Ian Bremmer
That's very different from the average American. But I mean, again, Bill Gates is.
Patrick Bet-David
But that's not what I'm saying. No, what I'm saying to you is for a guy like him to go to the other side for TikTok to get kids and younger boys to go to the other side. Yep. You're supporting who to get, you know, African American numbers, where the CNN host is watching this guy giving the stats and she's like, that can't be right. That's the numbers? Are you joking? Yes. Even Kamala Harris. The worst with African American voters for the last four Democratic presidents. That can't be real. That's the real numbers. See, I think this was a. This was a place where, you know, Rogan said something the other day. I actually really like what he said. He says, you know, he says, I still am not a Republican. He says, I'm still an independent. He says, there's some things I agree with with the left, there's some things I agree with with the right, but to him, he saw more common sense insanity on Trump's side than the other side. This, this doesn't mean where two years ago, when I'm on his podcast, episode 216, whatever it was a year and a half ago, you know, he had no plans of having Trump, Trump on. And he's. Lex Friedman is like, I'll never have him on. I'll never have him on.
Ian Bremmer
Look, I think it's a bigger win, and there's no question, but I think.
Patrick Bet-David
It'S a. I don't think it's a win. I don't think it's just a win. The part I'm trying to ask from you is I think it's a real shift. Like, I truly like. You know, we haven't had a third party competitor in a long time since Ross Perot, whatever, 19 points, 20 points, whatever the number was.
Ian Bremmer
Right.
Patrick Bet-David
And every year. So. Well, we need an independent part. We need a third party. Okay, great. Eventually someone's going to say, I'm a Republican, I'm a Democrat. I think something happened right now. I really think 2020. Because when I'm talking to guys right now who are left, right, center. I run an insurance company, and we got agents that are regular guys that do what they do. And so they're not rich people. These are insurance agents that are making 2, 3, 4, 5 grand. And then we got some people that make millions, but some of these guys are making 60, 50, $100,000. You're talking to them. It's a very different vibe I get when Trump's name comes up than the level of hate and anger they had towards him in 2018, 19, 20, 2021. They hated this guy in 2018-19. They thought he was the Antichrist. And now they're like, look, still don't like the guy, but I don't hate him. I actually think I'm happy he's the president. It's a very different language, you hear? That's the part where I'm saying Where I don't know if we're as divided today as we were two years ago.
Ian Bremmer
I hope you're right. I hope you're right. I don't see that in the United States now. I don't see that around the world right now. I think that Trump's impulses, of course, are still very much about finding people that are the enemy. And I'm gonna win and we're gonna win together and we're gonna go after these people. I think that Elon does the same thing, and not just domestically, but also around the world. I think it works, it produces algorithmically. You know, you get clicks on the basis of much stronger emotions than you do long form nuance and engaging in civil society. And a lot of Americans are hurting, a lot of average Americans, a lot of young men in the United States don't feel like they're doing well, don't feel like people are taking care of them and they're angry at stuff. And you know, what can you do? You go after, I mean, 30,000, talk about Guantanamo and I'm going to set up 30, you know, camp for 30,000 people. Does he need to do that? No. Can the cruelty be the point in going after folks? Yeah, it helps because they want to say, you're responsible for my pain and I'm going to do something about that. So I don't. I think that all of these things play because there's a lot of hurt, there's a lot of feeling of isolation. There's a lot of Americans that are spending much less time with other Americans and instead are being intermediated through their phones. And I think that's a problem. And I think that MAGA has managed to create something that people can aspire and connect to when the family's broken down and when the church has broken down and when public schools aren't doing so well. Our economy is doing fantastically well at the macro level. But the average American, I think, is still feeling like they're hurting. So I have a hard time seeing America not being as divided until we start fixing those issues. Those are long term structural issues. I don't think we're getting closer on that. I also worry that we're throwing the baby out with the bathwater when the United States. I've never seen a time. I mean, you've been talking a lot about the US over the last 15, 20 minutes. I spend most of my time talking outside the US about what's happening in the rest of the world. The United nations, the World Health Organization, all Of these organizations, we created them. The United States after World War II. The World bank, the IMF. Right, NATO. We created them with our values and our allies because we recognize that long term we have a democracy. Our system is messy. You go from one president to a different, different types of ideas and policies, but that if we could create institutions where, yes, we'd be responsible and we'd do more, maybe in some cases in our fair share, we'd pay more, we'd be more engaged, we'd show leadership, but long term, we would benefit from that. But if the average American doesn't believe that they benefit from that, they're gonna say, screw you, we shouldn't support that anymore. We don't like the un. We don't like the who. We don't like any of these organizations because you're not taking care of us.
Patrick Bet-David
But do you know why they don't like the un? Do you know why they don't like NATO? Do you know why they don't like World Health Organization?
Ian Bremmer
I do.
Patrick Bet-David
Why?
Ian Bremmer
Well, I mean, they're different reasons, but the main reason they don't like them is because they feel like the United States is getting rolled by a whole bunch of countries that aren't taking care of themselves and want the Americans to pay for it.
Patrick Bet-David
But, but is that, is that, that's a different idea than what it was when NATO first got started? Why did NATO first get started? It got started because of Russia. Ussr. Right. You know, of course. Why is NATO needed today? And so do they need to cancel the part with the average person? See, what Trump did is Trump asked interesting questions that prompted everybody to go in search. He asked the questions like a business owner asks, I'm in. You're. You're running a business since 1998, right?
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't know what your revenue is. I don't know. How many, how many employees do you guys have?
Ian Bremmer
250.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. You got 250 employees?
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
You have a board.
Ian Bremmer
You know, I own it, so, I mean, I started it.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, but you have a board where you sit and talk to people, have counsel, or. No, you don't have a board. Okay, so. But 250 employees. 250 employees. It's a legitimate sized company. You got. It's not a small business. Okay, so what do you do? Don't you sit there and say, the other day, my CTO comes up to me, he says, do you know we pay subscription to 900 different things? I said, what? Why? Who signed up for this? Well, you had One employee that kept subscribing to everything. He's no longer here. So we're looking at the credit card. Let me tell you, we're learning so many different things because we're asking questions. Subscribe, subscribe, subscribe. Asking Nobody, subscribe, subscribe, subscribe, 900 subscription to different things. So then I'm asking questions. What are some questions I want to ask? On which credit card were the subscriptions prompted? First data rolls it and you'll see boom, boom, boom, Boom, boom. Oh, 293 came from this one employee. Which one of them were approved? Okay, maybe we approved those. But what is this? Great. How about this other person? How about that other person? Which one of these do we even know what we use for out of the 900? We probably don't even need 50% of them. Right. So that person who should be these payments going through, he should approve these. That guy did it without getting the approval. Okay, we have to change the, you know, and then you change the prompts. Right? Okay. What did Trump do? Trump asks questions that a CEO like you asks. Any reason why we're giving $350 million to World Health Organization with 340 million people living here while China's giving 39 million, give or take, and they have 1.5 billion. Very good question. Any reason why we're giving more money to NATO to protect them while we're not worried about our borders, why aren't all these other countries given? And they're like, oh, nobody's been asking, guys, let's start giving more money and.
Ian Bremmer
Useful for them to be giving more money and pushing on.
Patrick Bet-David
But what I'm, but what I'm saying is when you're saying we started these things as a form of imposing our values and principles, the challenge then happens is what you, you're, you're like, even right now, when Trump said, I think we buy 50 of tick tock and 50 of tick tock goes to an owner in US and I'm going to give you a license. I'm not a fan of that. Why? I don't want the government to own 50% of TikTok. Why not? I trust it under Trump. I don't trust it under who's gonna be president next. I don't trust it on two presidents from now. So even though we're creating these world.
Ian Bremmer
Economics formula, well, this is an important thing is that in four years time, Trump is not president anymore. So I mean, as much as he can impose all sorts of ideas and will that a lot of people are going to say, I like this. The reality is the law of the jungle, driven by Trump with all of these things saying, you do it my way or you're in serious trouble when that stops and you have a different leader, Republican or Democrat, don't care. But they're not going to have that ability. They're not. He's a unique figure in that regard.
Patrick Bet-David
They're not going to have that.
Ian Bremmer
They're not. And so, and, but, but then you don't have the same institutional heft to ensure that people otherwise behave that were aligned with the Americans. You're going to lose something.
Patrick Bet-David
Right, right.
Ian Bremmer
That's important.
Patrick Bet-David
It is important. But go back to what we discussed. So a lot of these organizations that may have started with the right cause have now turned into a political, you know, abuse of their power. And hey, we need more money. Yeah, let me send you more money. Let me say, don't worry about it. I got you. We'll send you more money. We'll send you more money. No, we're not sending you more money. And now World Health Organization could potentially be shutting down. They're begging other people for money. Why are we going to do this? We're not going to be doing this. I love that. I love that part of coming in and asking, hey, any reason?
Ian Bremmer
I like asking. I don't like breaking.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, so here's another question that is the difference. You're 250 employees. How many of them work from home?
Ian Bremmer
Everyone is three days a week in the office.
Patrick Bet-David
And where are you based?
Ian Bremmer
Out of New York, but that's 90 of them.
Patrick Bet-David
And then the other guys are offices.
Ian Bremmer
All over the world. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
So. And you're most of them. What do they do? Are most of them doing research? Are they writing? What's their job?
Ian Bremmer
Probably a solid half are direct analysts in some fashion.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay.
Ian Bremmer
And then you've got, you know, people, you got tech people, and you've got HR people.
Patrick Bet-David
And you have a system to track people's behavior that the work is being put in.
Ian Bremmer
Sure, of course.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, perfect. So here's a company.
Ian Bremmer
It's not the government.
Patrick Bet-David
I get, brother. What? I'm like the part that, like, do.
Ian Bremmer
I think the government is inefficient? Yes, I do. Do I think that we should break everything and ask questions later? No, I want us to ask questions first and then break. That's the difference. That's the difference.
Patrick Bet-David
You're not gonna have time because you got two years only till midterms.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, no, my God. Look, I mean, I Think that you want to ask questions about Greenland. We can ask questions first. Ask them with our ally, Denmark. Don't break things first and then go and ask the question you're gonna damage.
Patrick Bet-David
That's not. You're talking to a guy that is. Is been doing this for 78 years and it's worked. I know, right?
Ian Bremmer
I know. In a different environment, we got 2.
Patrick Bet-David
Million government employees, of which only 6% come to the office every day.
Ian Bremmer
Horrible. I've said publicly, I tweeted publicly when they said everyone's going to work on every day. I said, if Doge does nothing else, do that and it's a win.
Patrick Bet-David
I mean, this is.
Ian Bremmer
I can completely agree, right?
Patrick Bet-David
Nowadays, more than ever, the brand you wear reflects and represent who you are. So for us, if you wear a Future Looks Bright hat or a valuetainment gear, you're telling the world. I'm optimistic. I'm excited about what's going to be happening. But you're a free thinker. You question things. You like debate. And by the way, last year, 120,000 people got a piece of Future Looks Bright gear with valuetainment, we have so many new things. The cufflinks are here. New Future Looks Bright. This is my favorite, the green one. Just yesterday, somebody placed an order for a hundred of these. If you watch the PBD podcast, you got a bunch to choose from. White ones, black ones. If you smoke cigars and you come to our cigar lounge, we have this high quality lighter cutter and a holder for the cigars. We got sweaters with the valuetainment logo on it. We got mugs, we got a bunch of different things. But if you believe the future looks bright, if you follow our content and what we represent with valuetainment with PVD podcast, go to vtmerch.com and by the way, if you order right now, there's going to be a special VT gift insight just for you. So again, go to vtmerch.com, place your order, tell the world that you believe the future looks bright. So, okay, let's go to World Economic Forum and Davos. I was invited there this year. Okay. Yeah, couldn't go. You know, we had stuff going on.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And if I were to go, I would have to have the conversation to see what it is. I'm not going to, you know, but yeah, anyways, they extended an invitation. Nice of them fellow. He had a call with my EA and my couple guys. It was good to go.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Klaus Schwab, I ask you, is he a good guy? I didn't say that. You said. I didn't say that. Right. Is he a good guy or not? World Economic Forum. Okay, good organization, bad organization. What's the motive? You saw some of the stuff on the website. They put some stuff that's kind of suspect. You want us to do what? You're going to own nothing and be happy. Weird things that they talked about, some of the messages that comes out.
Ian Bremmer
Now here's an issue that I know a lot about.
Patrick Bet-David
Perfect. And I want to hear it. Why do you think a lot of people who may be sided with Trump don't trust the World Economic Forum?
Ian Bremmer
Because it's a conference every year in Switzerland, not in the United States, with a lot of very wealthy and powerful people that are getting together. A lot of them are flying in on their private planes. And it's very easy to imagine that when you do that, they must be controlling the world. And, you know, all you need is to get a quick video and take something out that, you know, sort of says the great reset or says, we want you to eat bugs or whatever it is that's crazy and stupid. And that suddenly becomes the meme for what they're actually discussing. I've gone for 15 years. They have 600 employees. I think they make $400 million a year. I can assure you that no running of the world is being done by the World Economic Forum. The reason they are successful and the reason that you should probably go and you would find this out for yourself and then you could tell everybody exactly what I'm now telling you is that the most busy people in the world, for whom time is a very precious commodity, can get five weeks of work done in five days. And that is what they do because they are able to get their bilaterals all set up with every other business leader in their sector. In related sectors, all these government leaders, they will not take a meeting unless that meeting will get something done. If I go to London, and I haven't been to London in six months and I want to see someone even if I have no business, they'll say, yeah, Ian's here. Yeah, I'll see Ian for an hour. And there might be nothing to get done in that meeting. You will not take a meeting at the World Economic Forum because it's such a target rich environment, unless you have something concrete that you want to get done in that meeting. So, number one, everyone is there. Number two, almost every meeting is productive. And number three, you are filling your time with people that you really want to see. For CEOs who work and finance and foreign ministers whose time is incredibly, incredibly valuable. This is the most target rich environment, the most productive environment they could possibly have. And that's why they go and that's why it's successful and everything else. And the memes that you see about what the WEF is driving in terms of some of the research papers they put out, that's, that's like window dressing. That shows that they have like some stuff to talk about in content. But that's not why the WEF world. No zero, no, you should not, not at all buy that. You should not.
Patrick Bet-David
Well, so you're saying that they cut a clip of what he's saying to eat bugs and do all this stuff.
Ian Bremmer
No, like I've never eaten a bug.
Patrick Bet-David
I, I have. I haven't ate it out of Mexico. Mexico.
Ian Bremmer
And I had a quintanillo.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, yeah.
Ian Bremmer
Is that where you went tell you that was great.
Patrick Bet-David
I had three courses. It was insane. It was good. I actually liked it.
Ian Bremmer
No, I mean if you were eating bugs like that, you would eat bugs.
Patrick Bet-David
If I'm eat it, I'm going to eat Mexican bugs by choice with the best hot sauce and all that other.
Ian Bremmer
Stuff at the, at the Kitchen Bar there.
Patrick Bet-David
Listen, it was the most amazing experience, amazing meal they brought. It was ridiculous. Right. But you know like if I, if.
Ian Bremmer
You see you sound like a globalist. I don't know, I'm a little concerned.
Patrick Bet-David
Pat, you're so funny.
Ian Bremmer
Swear to God.
Patrick Bet-David
But if you see, if you see a person getting up there and they give a message and this guy's up there talking about the Great Reset and all this other stuff.
Ian Bremmer
I know.
Patrick Bet-David
And he, what's his role with the World Economic Forum? Is he the director? He, he gave. I think, I think he's executive chairman or something. Wait, who's about to. Harare is about to take his position? I think, I think he's going to pass it over to him sometime soon. Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
No, no, no.
Patrick Bet-David
Maybe you haven't read this article. There was an article that said Yuval Harari. Let me find this here. Klaus Schwab.
Ian Bremmer
I think if that was in an article, I think it's wrong.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. Yuval Harari is his right hand guy.
Ian Bremmer
No, he's not.
Patrick Bet-David
Well listen, these are articles saying it's his right hand.
Ian Bremmer
I'm telling you it's not his right eye. He wasn't even there.
Patrick Bet-David
Who was his right hand guy? Who is it?
Ian Bremmer
His name is Berga Brenda and he's a former foreign minister in the Nordics and he's perfectly affable. Smart guy. When he was foreign minister, he was very well respected by all of the other leaders in the region, and he's good at coordinating these meetings, you know? No, I mean the. No, I think you misread that.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't think I misread that.
Ian Bremmer
I do. Because he's not showing up, man. I'm telling him, no, I will find it for you.
Patrick Bet-David
I will find it for you.
Ian Bremmer
Yuval Harari doesn't even. Like I know him well, and he's not someone that's going to take over the web.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, hang on, let me. I'm going to find it for you before we wrap this up. And you can say it's not true or it's inaccurate or whatever.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
But if you see Klaus Schwab.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Getting up there and talking about, we need a D and we need a reset. Great. Reset.
Ian Bremmer
Every year they try to come up with some interesting ideas about where they think the world is or isn't going. And it's absolutely talked about because they have a big forum. Is it talked about more than, you know, what someone would say at the UN General assembly every year or at a NATO summit or anything else? No, I mean, it's. It's. The fact is that the business of the WEF is, as I've just described it to you. But again, I understand that in an environment where people are doing their own research, there are people that are making up stuff wholesale, and they'll take a tiny clip of something and they'll make it into more than it actually is. That's. It just is not.
Patrick Bet-David
I'm gonna play you a clip by this guy. Just. Can you find one clip of him? Yeah. Of Klaus. And you tell me if this sounds normal to you.
Ian Bremmer
You mean his accent?
Patrick Bet-David
Not his accent. I mean, he sounds like. Well, Kissinger had his own set of issues as well.
Ian Bremmer
I'm not gonna say different issues. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Tell you, Kissinger was an angel. Kissinger could be a reason why you and I are sitting here right now. Because if it wasn't for Kissinger, I may still be in Iran today. I may be in a different situation as possible because of the promises they made to help out the shot, which last minute they didn't, which I'm sure you know the history of that.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
But why? Why do you think. Why do you think they don't trust it? Why do you think they don't trust crosswalk? Why do you think they think he's evil? Why do you think when you're, you know, the amount of. When they see him as a person, you think it's just the clips that. That are doing that. You think he doesn't have any other motives. You think. When you.
Ian Bremmer
I think it's all the wealthy people showing up in a mountain in Switzerland.
Patrick Bet-David
When you write a book, how long does it take you to write a book?
Ian Bremmer
Book. A year and a half? Two years?
Patrick Bet-David
A year and a half. So when. When all of a sudden, Covid happens in March of 2020, where it becomes public. How does Clouse write such a book so fast? That comes out in July, four months later. I've never written a book that fast. I don't know if you remember the dates. So here's the COVID 19, the great reset.
Ian Bremmer
He's again, he's got about 600 people. How many people working with him?
Patrick Bet-David
I got. I got a lot of people working for me. So he was. His book is July 9, 2020. Covid is a thing in March. He just said it takes a year, year and a half to write a book.
Ian Bremmer
Terry Mallory. I remember Terry. He is. No, it takes me a year and a half because I have a goddamn day job. It's really hard. I have to find time to actually do it in between everything else that I do. It's hard. People that write books for a living, of whom Terry Mallory, who's the second author there, that is what he does. He's a global strategist who writes books and thought pieces for a living. And I am certain that he did a hell of a lot of lifting there. And can you get that done? And for. It's also was a relatively short book, if I remember correctly. It was like 120 pages, 280 pages. No, it was not.
Patrick Bet-David
Print length. 280.
Ian Bremmer
Was it really 280 right there.
Patrick Bet-David
You've got to get your font.
Ian Bremmer
The font.
Patrick Bet-David
You're spending too much time.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, go screw yourself, Matt. I swear to God. I swear to God. But the idea. I mean, if you're basing this theory on the fact that he got a book done in four months with a guy that writes books, that's a little weird.
Patrick Bet-David
I mean, listen, I can ask a question and say that's a little weird. You don't think that's a little weird?
Ian Bremmer
No.
Patrick Bet-David
Really, you know, that's a little weird.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, a party. You're a smart guy.
Patrick Bet-David
I am a smart guy.
Ian Bremmer
Now, don't go into deep zone.
Patrick Bet-David
Oh, deep part of the pool. Okay, so let me go to a different direction with this one.
Ian Bremmer
I'm telling you that year, if you next year say yes to the wef.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
And you go and spend the entire week and actually see all the meetings, you'll come away saying, yeah, it's a conference.
Patrick Bet-David
Rahm Emanuel, you know who he is?
Ian Bremmer
I know him well. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. He said, never let a crisis go to waste.
Ian Bremmer
Yes, he did say that.
Patrick Bet-David
Do you think they saw Covid as a crisis to use? Do you think the World Economic Forum maybe saw this as an opportunity to really impose their beliefs around the world?
Ian Bremmer
A Nonprofit organization of 600 people, most of whom last for two years and then go on and work someplace else?
Patrick Bet-David
No, this.
Ian Bremmer
No people said that about the Council of Foreign Relations. The Council is like a tiny, sleepy nonprofit. And why. And they're. They're like. They are the most bureaucratic organization. It's so hard to get things done. And they're nice people and they're smart people, but they don't run the world. And so the idea. Now, the people that run the world are the people that are worth hundreds of billions of dollars, that are directly in meetings with world leaders where they can actually take real advantage of those meetings because they can put cash into play. Like you and I both know, the currency of power in the world is about, do you have capital? And the WEFT does not. They don't. They're convener. They're conveners of events.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, but you're not a. So the insurance industry has an organization called limra. Okay. The guy that was running it was a guy that was very, very powerful in the insurance space. He was a CEO of it.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
What made him powerful. What made him powerful is the fact that every CEO of 40, 50, 100, $200 billion insurance company went to his conference.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Every year. You know how much power the guy had?
Ian Bremmer
I don't.
Patrick Bet-David
A lot.
Ian Bremmer
I'm not in the insurance industry.
Patrick Bet-David
Oh. It's a lot of power, though. So if you think about this guy is getting all of these leaders like Larry Fink, Jamie Dimon, everybody from around the world is coming to his conference.
Ian Bremmer
They all have industry groups that are really, really relevant for them. And if you want to talk about where they're applying and making sure that they're aligning their capital, it's in their industry groups. It's not in the WEF with everybody else in the wef. They're meeting with everyone so they can get business done. It is transactional. It is not strategic. Strategic are where they put money into their packs. They put money into their industry groups and figure out what are the things that move the needle for them so that they have more access to the kind of regulations they want, the kind of taxes they want, that's where that power is being levered. No question.
Patrick Bet-David
And the guy that hosts it, that brings everybody together.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Who says things like the following. Let me just read this quote to you.
Ian Bremmer
From who?
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. This is the sweetheart of a guy, Klaus. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy.
Ian Bremmer
I remember that. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
You think that's just normal.
Ian Bremmer
I thought that that was an odd quote.
Patrick Bet-David
You think that's just odd.
Ian Bremmer
I do. I mean, do I.
Patrick Bet-David
That is an understatement.
Ian Bremmer
Odd.
Patrick Bet-David
I mean, that brings all these. The richest people.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, my God. If I look at the people that are driving AI in the world today and what they say about the future, and so the idea that, like, you know, you're going to have digital sovereignty and people are going to upload into.
Patrick Bet-David
The Internet guy that's running the whole thing, that's inviting all these guys who sell, you'll know, own nothing and be happy. That's normal.
Ian Bremmer
In charge of a conference that everybody.
Patrick Bet-David
Shows up like he's got influence over. Like, for example, if a guy hosted a conference that said, I want the best fighters in the world to show up to my conference, who the f. Are you? But this guy puts it all. The fighters show up. Why? Guy's got influence.
Ian Bremmer
Look, I mean, if we were to try to find individual quotes that make political leaders that you and I know look batshit crazy and only talk about those things, we could do that we choose not to.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
Why it is that. That we've decided that we're going to key in on this one.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't think it's. I think it's the last four or five years that a lot of people started looking to see. And when you make. I mean, he said in 2016, right? Yeah. When he said, you'll own nothing, you'll be happy. And a leader who says, you can make a lot of difference, you grab them by xyz. Right. You know when Trump said that to whatever. The Bush guy.
Ian Bremmer
Yes, of course. On the. On the axis.
Patrick Bet-David
All right, so what is that? Okay, got it. Inappropriate. Sure, sure. Now the guy says, you know, we got to get. They send the worst. They send their rapists and criminals and, you know, da, da, da. Oh, my God, Trump just called. All these, hey, they. I mean, stuff has been said, People have some bad days, you'll own nothing and be happy is a little bit weird.
Ian Bremmer
It's a little Bit weird, if you ask me. What I think that actually reflects. It reflects a view of a technologically driven, some would say utopian. Many more would say dystopian world when human beings are radically different than they are right now. If you ask me, if I look at where AI is driving sort of humanity, it's not in a place where most people in the world are going to have a lot of control over productive forces. Labor is getting a lot weaker. Do I think people will be happy about that? No, I don't. And if they are happy, it's because they're programmed to be happy. I think that everyone says artificial general intelligence is coming. I think that computers are programming us a lot more quickly than we're programming computers. Right. We are affected much more as consumers and products as we engage on this stuff. I think that if we. If you put in that context, I think you would find that what he said is much more aligned with a lot of your most advanced tech thinkers in the world today. And those are places that we should be pushing back against.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, maybe. Let me show you highlight reel of Klaus Schwab and Tony Robbins here. Rob, if you got a clip, do you have something you want to show us? Here's Klaus Schwab. Yeah. The change can be shaped by us. We have to prepare for a more angry world. How to prepare? Takes the necessary action to create the pharaoh world. I see the need for a great reset. So people assume we are just going back to the good old world, which we have that and everything will be normal again. This is, let's say, fiction. It will not happen. The change a little weird. Some of the stuff he says, it sounds like out of a movie. Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
The accent, I think definitely helps with that.
Patrick Bet-David
Even some of the stuff that he.
Ian Bremmer
Says, I don't know. I didn't. I didn't see anything particularly exciting.
Patrick Bet-David
You. Honestly, nothing. You're a little exciting. No, look, nothing about me.
Ian Bremmer
You've. You said you followed me for a while. I mean, look, I may be a kid from Chelsea. I'm authentic. I will tell you what.
Patrick Bet-David
I think I'm actually really enjoying the conversation.
Ian Bremmer
Tell you what, it's not.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
So, I mean, you know, some places you and I clearly agree. Some places you and I have less. Let's put it this way, I have less knowledge about a lot of the domestic stuff that you're talking about. I have a lot more knowledge on the international stuff. So if we don't agree, I think it's mostly tariffs.
Patrick Bet-David
Because you. Tariff is something you do you do talk. Sure. Right, because let's talk there. So the topic of tariff became hot, I think, the last three months of the election. It's always been talked about, but it's kind of like why I think tariff is the, you know, best word in the dictionary. After love and after God and after religion, it's got to be tariff. Right. He's kind of giving a message, and.
Ian Bremmer
He'S been saying that for decades.
Patrick Bet-David
He's been saying it for decades. But it became hot the last 90 days where they said, well, if we do this, if we do that, what's your concern with tariffs?
Ian Bremmer
Well, first of all, the U.S. you look at the place that tariffs have caused the biggest conversations over the last 10 years. It's been China and Biden and Trump's policies on China have been virtually identical on this issue. Right. I mean, Biden didn't take any of those tariffs off.
Patrick Bet-David
Sure.
Ian Bremmer
He actually added export controls. There is a move towards a decoupling of the global economy from the US And China that had very integrated supply chains to increasingly less integrated supply chains. Is that good, bad, or indifferent? There are some ways where it's good because you have more control over, you know, you aren't going to be as vulnerable to political intervention stopping you from having stuff. We're finally starting to move some of our semiconductors away from Taiwan. That was a huge mistake the Americans made over the past 30 years, in the same way that the Germans made a huge mistake allowing their energy to come from Russia. And by the way, some of the Europeans are now talking about, let's do that again. That would be another huge mistake if they were to do it. So I believe that there is a utility for national security purposes in using the strength of US Economic policy, including tariffs, to help defend the interests of Americans and its allies. I also think that as the most powerful country in the world, you can use tariffs as a stick that can force countries to negotiate with you in ways that they might not otherwise. So I look at the Mexico conversation right now, and Trump willing to credibly.
Patrick Bet-David
Say, just, you may want to lift it up and put it back up.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, thank you.
Patrick Bet-David
There you go.
Ian Bremmer
That's Trump. Trump credibly saying, we're going to hit you hard will make them take fentanyl more seriously, will make them take border security in the south more seriously. He will get more from them because he is willing to use sticks for the United States, and those sticks are less dangerous if they're okay with tariffs. Yeah, I'm okay with that. I Recognize that tariffs also have costs. We are in a very low tariff environment right now in the world. I think the average tariff on the average good globally is something like 3%. It's almost historic lows.
Patrick Bet-David
2%, give or take.
Ian Bremmer
Really low.
Patrick Bet-David
We only get $80 billion in revenue from tariffs. That's not a big amount of money that comes.
Ian Bremmer
It's not a big amount of money. So I mean, the fact is that moving a little bit on tariffs, if it gets you some outcomes that you want, is not going to have a massive.
Patrick Bet-David
Let me ask you a question. What would happen if we went to.
Ian Bremmer
25 points on everybody?
Patrick Bet-David
Everybody.
Ian Bremmer
Well, there you would have a significant amount of near term inflation. Right. I mean, that would definitely happen.
Patrick Bet-David
So. Okay, so are you following?
Ian Bremmer
And a lot of you'd also have a significant impact on the stock market, which would come down and corporates would take a hit that have exposure to all those markets and so they'd have to pay costs as a basis to that. Those are the two major things.
Patrick Bet-David
Are you seeing how he's talking about lowering taxes or getting rid of it? And you know, have you heard about him giving the speech on taxes lately? Sure. Okay.
Ian Bremmer
So I mean, there are costs to doing that. Right. Because you're no longer getting that revenue for sure.
Patrick Bet-David
I totally get it.
Ian Bremmer
I'd really like to not see the IRS get defunded because one of the best ways that you ensure that you continue to make revenue is to make sure that people that owe taxes actually pay them and are audited. So I do think that's important.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, but what he's trying to do is the concept of external revenue service you heard him talk about.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
So what, what would.
Ian Bremmer
Which we have. I mean, he'll rename the organization, but.
Patrick Bet-David
Yes, but what would happen if we bumped it up from 2 points on average to 25 points? Hear me out here.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And that would be instead of 80 billion a year, that would put us at around a trillion dollars a year of rev that's coming in. Okay. That if you want to do business with us, that's the number. Now obviously it doesn't work that way. It's not black and white because, you.
Ian Bremmer
Know, other things, substitution effects, and they will come back and hit you with tariffs as well. And that's going to be a cost on you and all the same thing.
Patrick Bet-David
No problem. So, but, but I think at two points it's nothing. At two points, if we were to go to 25 and we stay at 25 for four years, hypothetically, and Then he flips and he lowers taxes on individuals. Okay, on individuals that are paying taxes. How would that sit with American people? Would they sit there and say, wait a minute, you're lowering my federal income taxes? Yeah. You're raising tariffs? Yeah. Interesting. I haven't done the charts to see how the numbers would work. Everybody's people on the left side, they'll never work. People on the right side, it could work. How do you think the average day to day worker who hears that message saying, let's collect the money that we're not collecting with these other guys, unless lower taxes would sit.
Ian Bremmer
I don't know how it goes for people that hear the message, but in terms of how they experience the outcomes, I can tell you that people, when they get more money in their income or their taxes go down, psychologically pocket that, that's theirs. They earned it. It's, it's, it's their due. When inflation goes up, they're angry about that. That's not okay. And it doesn't balance off. So inflation has a significantly greater impact psychologically on people because they're paying that. Now, to be fair, Trump is clearly very concerned about one area of inflation, which he should be, which is oil. And the reason for that is because guys in the United States that are going and filling up their car actually see the price of oil, price of gas every week, and they see it by itself. And so they're very sensitive to that. So that helps. And if you bring down the cost of oil and let's say, you know, sort of, you get oil down to 60 bucks a barrel, which I think is plausible this year. And Trump is leaning into the Saudis to try to get them to pump more. And Trump is leaning into the regs to try to get, you know, sort of US Drillers to do more. Then you might be willing to take more inflation in other aspects, even though he'll get beaten up by the Democrats. And at the end of the day, that might be seen as a wash by the American people. So you might have more flexibility on tariffs. Now there are some tariffs that he is talking about putting on that I think are a mistake. So, for example, Mexico, you want to hit the Mexicans really hard right now. They have a government that is, they have a super majority. They can make constitutional changes. The leader's very popular. She is oriented to do everything possible to get to a better deal. Trump will be seen as a winner. That's a smart place to use your strength. Canada, huge mistake. Why? Because Canada is heading into an election cycle. And everyone in Canada has become really angry about what Trump is saying. And as a consequence, both the liberals and the conservatives have to outplay each other in who's gonna be tougher to respond to Trump. So he should have waited until after the elections if he wanted to hit the Canadians with tariffs, when the US Would have a lot more leverage and when the politics wouldn't be at play. Because instead he's gonna either have to back down, which makes him look weak, or he has to keep going and the Canadians have to get into a vicious cycle. It's gonna cost us a lot more. And that we will see. So I absolutely believe the tariffs are an important, even an indispensable tool for the United States in foreign policy. But you want to use them strategically. You want to use them in a more, you know, sort of actual use judgment in how and when you apply them. Trump doesn't do that. Trump sees that he has a tool and he scattershot uses it everywhere at the same time and see how it goes, see how it sticks and, and you break things that way. So it's not that he's wrong. His political instincts have always been incredibly sharp, but his willingness to actually think through what the implications of some of those knee jerk statements are and knee jerk policies are. Even as the strongest guy out there, even as a guy who's consolidated power when so many of his allies are weaker, when the American economy is stronger, when the US Has a better technological position, when our military is stronger, he can still make big mistakes. And so I'd rather see him as my president, as your president, I'd rather see him minimize those mistakes.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, so this is tariffs here. Right. And you said you're not a globalist, but you believe in globalization.
Ian Bremmer
Yes. Big difference.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, big difference. Okay, so this, the amount of tariffs we used to revenue used to come in for the US Government. Obviously it's a different world today than it was before.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And tiny, tiny. What we had before versus today.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Used to be 80, 90% late 1800s, then it was 40, 50% until 1910s. Then we were still getting some tariff. 1930, 1940. And then all of a sudden, 1940ish, 45ish goes all the way down to nothing. And we've stayed at that number. 2%.
Ian Bremmer
Correct.
Patrick Bet-David
For a long time till today. Okay, so who did that benefit? You're saying globalization, if everybody is doing better around the world, it's kind of good. You know, people are making money, they're taking care of themselves, stress is lower, crime is going to be lower, you know, overreaction is going to be lower. Fine. But don't you think for a country that's helped when you're looking at the numbers of what the deficiency is between how much China makes with us, you know, how much they're making off of us versus us the other way around, don't you think he has the leverage to be able to say, look, we're just increasing everything on everybody because people are trying to do business with us.
Ian Bremmer
Not the other way around? That compared with the periods of time when tariffs were a lot higher, you now have global supply chains that are completely integrated. They weren't before. I mean, you look at US Mexico, and you'll have cars with components going back and forth sometimes 30, 40 times with, you know, completely integrated US Mexico supply chain before it actually gets bought by somebody. You Suddenly throw a 25% tariff across the board between US and Mexico and Mexico hits you back with that. Then suddenly like you're literally breaking that supply chain in ways that makes absolutely no sense given how corporations and jobs on both sides of the border have been set up for decades. So you don't want to suddenly break that because that's going to cost your corporations and the workers in those corporations an awful lot. So you can't do that. You have to be careful at being more incremental. And this is what Scott Besant is saying, right, is that he understands the desire to move towards a higher tariff environment, but he wants to do it incrementally and he wants to be squeezing, using that power to get outcomes that are more beneficial for the United States. I accept the fact that there has been free riding in a low tariff environment by a whole bunch of countries that are not necessarily providing for the public good globally. What they should be. China today is a middle income country. They're not a low income country. They have advanced technologies, they're ahead of us in post carbon energy. This is a country that can afford to actually change around their trade relationship with us. They can afford to uphold intellectual property and stop ripping us off. And also a lot of American companies aren't as interested in being in China because their economy is doing so badly right now. So the Americans have more leverage in that relationship today and should use it. Absolutely. But you've got to recognize that this is not 1925.
Patrick Bet-David
No, I recognize that's 1925, but it's also not 1980, 1999, 2000, where we keep doing it for everybody else and we're just Kind of leaving that money on the table.
Ian Bremmer
So who benefited from globalization? Right. There are two groups of people that benefited that really benefit from globalization. It's the top 10% globally, and particularly the top 1 and top 0.0001%. Right. And then the global middle class that really benefit from globalization. And the people that didn't benefit from globalization were wealthy people from a global perspective. But in reality, middle and working classes in the United States and Europe and Canada and Japan and South Korea, those are the people that didn't benefit. And the reason they didn't benefit is because all of the benefits that came to the wealthy were not reinvested into those countries in ways that would improve education, that would improve health care, that would improve social cohesion. They didn't do that. And that's why globalism has failed. Because you can't be winner take all in a more kleptocratic system and forget about your own fellow countrymen because they will say screw you. And that's why you had Brexit.
Patrick Bet-David
Right.
Ian Bremmer
That's why you have all these Euro skeptic movements too. This isn't just the United States. It's not like the Americans are the, you know, the ones that have uniquely gotten it wrong. And everybody else is on the right side of this. This is a global phenomenon.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, I just found where Yuval Hari was considered the brain of Klaus Schwab.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, that's very different than going to take over.
Patrick Bet-David
The idea was the fact that he could be his replacement. This is in the book Technocracy the Hard Road to World Order by Patrick Wood.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay, you read the book. You're thinking the guy's replacing him.
Ian Bremmer
No, you're not.
Patrick Bet-David
I'm. No, you're thinking he's his guy. Like he' the brain.
Ian Bremmer
The brain. I mean, like he's. He is a very smart guy.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, but that's the premise of so for you.
Ian Bremmer
So the fact if someone, if someone uses, if someone uses your ideas and informs your. Your ideas and informed by him, you're going to let your company be run by that.
Patrick Bet-David
Somebody calls, you know, me, the brain of. Let's just say this guy's the brain. Hey, that guy could be his replacement. That's how the conversation of Yuval Hari came in this.
Ian Bremmer
Okay, so I'm glad that you agree with me on that one.
Patrick Bet-David
No, no, it's not. I agree with you on that one. I'm telling you, that's what the discussion was about.
Ian Bremmer
I thought someone was saying he was about take over the web that's not credible.
Patrick Bet-David
That's. That one is not. You're right about that one. But the other one is, this is what prompted that conversation. But the tariff conversation, I can see that.
Ian Bremmer
By the way, if you go back to his book Sapiens, I can see why Klaus would have found a lot of those ideas very attractive.
Patrick Bet-David
Right. So going back to. And you know, you've read Sapiens, I've read.
Ian Bremmer
Everyone's read.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. So, but going back to tariffs, okay. My brain goes to a different place. You know, there's a camp that thinks very highly of Nixon, and Nixon did this. You know, a lot of people, oh my God, you know, water getting all this up. But then if you really think about it, this guy was a revolutionary guy. Was it good getting off of gold standard? I don't know. Was it good, you know, opening up China? I don't know. Did we strengthen China? Did we benefit more from China being open in the economy to be able to get cheap labor, all that stuff? Is that the capitalists in America benefit?
Ian Bremmer
That's a good question.
Patrick Bet-David
Right?
Ian Bremmer
That's a good question. Companies did. American companies did, did the average American. No, no. Look at, look at middle class income in the United States since China's opened flat. How have Americans, how have the average Americans. How's the average Trump voter saying that they're benefiting from China getting open?
Patrick Bet-David
No, but that's, that's exactly where I'm going with that. And now that we were reading five years ago, Made in China 2025, they're going to be the worldwide of the. Didn't happen.
Ian Bremmer
Didn't happen eight years ago.
Patrick Bet-David
Not even five years ago. Eight years ago. That didn't work. Didn't happen. Okay, so they're trying to sell themselves as they're doing very good. They have a net negative migration rate. They're losing people leaving. Right. Billionaires are trying to get away of getting their money out. They can't. It's very hard.
Ian Bremmer
Population is shrinking.
Patrick Bet-David
Population is shrinking. They got the whole, you know, the.
Ian Bremmer
The, the population distribution.
Patrick Bet-David
Totally. It's terrible, horrible. The, the, you know, the whole one baby rule really backfired on them in a big way.
Ian Bremmer
Neither three. Doesn't matter.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, it really messed it up. So now, but going back to now, so maybe, maybe Trump and his administration is trying to look at an opportunity here, saying, okay, well, you're saying we can't tariff everybody and go this way. No problem. If we continue going the way we're going right now, that shit's not working either. We're in $33 trillion of debt. We're not doing things in a way that's proven that our system is also working if we go this route. So what if we do a massive disruption to the system? What if we do. Would it shake things up? Maybe. Would it increase people's median income? Because I sit there, I wonder, I'm like, how are people going to buy these houses? Today we had Byron Donaldson. Byron Donaldson, you know who he is? And he says half the battle with homeowners insurance is the fact that houses cost so much. Salary is not really going that much higher. Houses just skyrocketed the last four years. Homeowners insurance. I don't want to have freaking homeowners insurance. I'm a homeowner's insurance company. I don't want to be in California. I don't want to be in Florida.
Ian Bremmer
Look, I mean, it's so interesting because you've got inside MAGA right now, right? You have a whole bunch of people that are not saying, I want libertarianism. They're not saying I want tiny government. They're saying, I actually want government to intervene more on my behalf. Half. I want the special interest to get hurt, and I want more to stay in the United States, and I want the government to do that. And yeah, I want tariffs. Why do I want tariffs? Because I want. I. I would much rather have a good job that pays me money.
Patrick Bet-David
What your interpretation is the fact that they're saying they want government to do what?
Ian Bremmer
Government to tariff, Government to ensure industrial policy, Government to force people to invest in the United States. They want government to do that. Well, they don't want the free market globally.
Patrick Bet-David
That's.
Ian Bremmer
Yes. Look, that's not everyone in maga. That's not what Elon Musk wants. But there is a core basis that is saying we allowing free markets around the world and allowing, you know, sort of open, easy capital to move. No, we want government or no, I think that Trump is absolutely prepared to use American power to get outcomes that he wants. Trump, in my view, is not a libertarian. And Trump is certainly not just a free market guy. I mean, he's very transactional. And Lord knows, I mean, he's in the way. He's built his own business, he's built it all over the world. And a whole bunch of the MAGA hats and whatnot have been made in China and all of his products. He's not a president has no problem with globalization. He's benefited from it. He's had a lot of immigrants from all over the world that are working for, you know, sort of his places. Not.
Patrick Bet-David
Not all, even top legal. He had H1B visa.
Ian Bremmer
H1B visa, plenty of that.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
So, I mean, where is Trump on the, you know, what I would call Deep Maga versus Dark Maga. Right? I mean, Dark Maga is the globalist wing, and Deep Maga is the populist, like, you know, industrial policy wing. I think Trump's both. Trump's both. And he has the ability to decide on any of these issues where he wants to play.
Patrick Bet-David
Do you think he's both or he knows how to dance with both? Both.
Ian Bremmer
I think he actually. I think he actually is both.
Patrick Bet-David
How do you become both?
Ian Bremmer
Well, I mean, look, Trump used to be a Democrat. Now he's a Republican. Right. I mean, because why. He sees that that was where the opportunities were for him to actually win as president, for him to capture a much bigger piece of, like, the. The vibes or the zeitgeist of the American people. I. I don't think that he is consistent ideologically with one side of this argument or the other.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay.
Ian Bremmer
I mean, he was very close with Robert Lighthizer last time around, and now you've got his former chief of staff who's running ustr. Lighthizer grew up in Ohio, working class like me and Chelsea Mass, and feels like I would much rather people not have two or three televisions, but know that they're gonna have a good opportunity for themselves and their family going forward. And if that means, you know, that we're gonna break some eggs, that's okay. I think that resonates with Trump, frankly.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. So it's interesting you say that, because just this week, remember the whole Deep Seek, this happened four days ago. Of course he's being asked. Yeah. So what do you think about Deep Seek? And what do you think about, you know, Chad gbt? He says, look, you know, I kind of like it. $6 million, I hear they build it for. And, you know, let's see what happens. I think a little bit of competition is good where it's. It's interesting how he dances with this. Right. Because that's not a tariff position.
Ian Bremmer
No.
Patrick Bet-David
So it's almost like he. He is thinking, steps ahead on how to use a certain leverage to negotiate both sides. He will lean on, allowing, in my mind, using Deep Seek to possibly get the local guys here that have a lot of power, the Nvidia, the Sam Altman, the Chad GPT folks to be.
Ian Bremmer
Like, hey, we do more.
Patrick Bet-David
It's such a very, very Interesting. He said, well, you know, right now there's a lot of people that are participating and wanting to buy tick tock. We got Larry Ellison and, and, you know, Elon, but also Microsoft.
Ian Bremmer
Microsoft.
Patrick Bet-David
You saw that. That just came out yesterday or two days ago.
Ian Bremmer
Two days ago, yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Very interesting.
Ian Bremmer
He was the guy on Huawei in 5G.
Patrick Bet-David
I remember this CFO's the daughter in Canada, Iran.
Ian Bremmer
And that was a real problem for the Canadians.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
But at the end of the day, he said, big national security problem. So I, I think it is a mistake to take a read on Trump Trump and say this guy is only tariff man. This guy also is prepared to cut a deal with anybody. Right. I mean, one of the biggest things the mainstream media has gotten wrong about Trump is they say he's in Putin's pocket. No, he's not. But he's willing to talk to Putin in a way that Biden was not. I mean, when the guy that is telling the Europeans they need to spend more on defense, you think Putin wants that? It's exactly the opposite of what Putin wants.
Patrick Bet-David
Are you happy with him as your president or Biden?
Ian Bremmer
They're very, very different people. Right.
Patrick Bet-David
It's not what I'm asking.
Ian Bremmer
I know. Am I happier? I make more money with Trump. Right. My taxes are lower. Far more people use our services.
Patrick Bet-David
Are you safer?
Ian Bremmer
Am I safer with Trump? Trump wants to end wars. Right. On the other hand, the likelihood that Trump can get some things, I think that the level of tail risks, upside and downside on Trump are far greater than they were under Biden. So the potential that you get some really big wins that were not conceivable under Biden, more likely under Trump. The potential that some really big things blow up under Trump. More likely than under Biden, geopolitically.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. But you see, I think if I would ask you that question.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
In 2017. 18. Let's just say if I ask you that question in 2016.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
2017, I think you would have said Obama.
Ian Bremmer
That's right.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't think you would have said Trump in 2017.
Ian Bremmer
That's right.
Patrick Bet-David
So you see, that's the part my view is different. No, no, no. What I think happened is in a private by yourself without any cameras being around. Wink, wink. No one's watching. This is a very small podcast. We only get a couple viewers.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, I know.
Patrick Bet-David
A week.
Ian Bremmer
I think people laughing in the background here. Just, you know, those are the two people I got.
Patrick Bet-David
My wife doesn't watch. We got one other person listens to I like this.
Ian Bremmer
I like the self deprecation.
Patrick Bet-David
No, no. What I'm saying to you is the following.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Is that I think deep down inside you're kind of happy he's the President, not Biden or Kamala. I don't know if you can say it because I know you can upset somebody.
Ian Bremmer
No, no.
Patrick Bet-David
You will be canceled. Dinner will be canceled. This week, a couple of your friends.
Ian Bremmer
I can say whatever I want. I can. I don't know if you really can.
Patrick Bet-David
I want to protect you. Don't say everything you want to say.
Ian Bremmer
No, no, no, no. I mean, one of the very few things that has driven my career is the fact that I have to be able to say what I believe, because otherwise I can't live with myself. And that's why I've never been in politics. I've never been interested. I've been asked by a bunch of.
Patrick Bet-David
Folks, life's better under Trump.
Ian Bremmer
You know, I really worry.
Patrick Bet-David
You can't say it, can you?
Ian Bremmer
I can't. I can't say it.
Patrick Bet-David
Because even though you know it's right.
Ian Bremmer
I don't know it's right. I think that it's. There are certain things that Trump has done. Look, we. We have a ceasefire in Gaza now, that would not have happened under Kamala Harris. I completely accept that. And he was the one that pushed the Israelis and he was the one that, through Qatar, pushed Hamas. That got done. I think that is more likely that we will get a cease fire on Russia, Ukraine under Trump than we would have under Kamala. I think that's true. At the same time, as someone who. You asked me right at the beginning what got me into what I do, and it was standing up for rule of law ideals, what America stands for, someone who truly understands that America leads by example, by example. And I find that Trump as a human being does not lead by example.
Patrick Bet-David
Biden and Kamala do.
Ian Bremmer
Neither of them were the people that I would have voted for.
Patrick Bet-David
Ideally, your only choice is these three.
Ian Bremmer
I understand. And if you ask me where you have an ability to get people around the world to say, the United States is a system that I. A political system that I trust, that I stand with, that I know that I can count on reliably from one administration to the next, I think that the level of longer term strategic damage which Trump is doing to alliances that matter to the US I'll give you an example. I mean, I just gave Trump plaudits on Gaza and on Russia, Ukraine. I happen to believe this is a place that I disagree Fundamentally, with Trump, I believe in a world that's becoming more dangerous and more fragmented, that a strong, cohesive Europe is very valuable. Valuable for the United States. I believe that. I believe that Europe as a supranational institution, supports rule of law, supports transparency, supports human rights, supports, you know, all of the things that we as Americans have stood and put our hand on our hearts since we were kids.
Patrick Bet-David
They've lost their minds a little bit.
Ian Bremmer
Yes, we have two in the United States in different ways.
Patrick Bet-David
You've been to UK to see what UK did. I mean.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, my God.
Patrick Bet-David
The case study.
Ian Bremmer
Let me. Let me just make the argument by the UK is not in Europe right now, so Brexit.
Patrick Bet-David
I fully get it. But look at the case study of what they've done. Everybody else is following suit. Germany go to different.
Ian Bremmer
I think that if the UK Were still in Europe, they'd be in much better shape right now. Absolutely. And by the way, over 70% of Brits now agree. They recognize this was a huge mistake. Right. So the fact that Trump really believes that Europe should go their separate way and fragment, and he wants to support all of these, you know, irredentist and Euro skeptic movements, I think is bad for. It's Pennywise and pound foolish. Quite, to use the pun. Long term, it's a problem leading by example. If Narendra Modi in India, Prime Minister of India, if he were to get on phone calls and meetings with Gautam Adani, the most powerful oligarch in India, and that Adani was suddenly like, part of those conversations and driving policy, even though he has no official position, we'd say that was a banana republic. I really have a problem with the fact that Elon is playing that role right now with Trump. Okay, that bothers me.
Patrick Bet-David
So how do you keep going? What do you think about that relationship? And you think it's gonna work?
Ian Bremmer
And last, of course, tell me why I do. Well, one, because Trump is really good at managing relations with people that have a lot more money than him and are very useful to him. That was true. It's true with Steve Schwarzman. It's true with Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. And I think Elon is even more useful. And I also think that Elon is very good at keeping his mouth shut when he needs to. Like with China. He's never said anything bad about Xi Jinping. He's had lots of reasons to. His business has had its challenges. He's never. He's more than happy to go after the sec. He's more than happy to go after the British Prime Minister. He's more than happy to go after the German Chancellor because they're not going to hurt him. But the Chinese, they can hurt him. So he's very careful. He's very pro Communist Party, says great things about them. You know, all the sort of things that Zuckerberg says to Trump in the last few weeks. Trump is far more important to Elon now than Xi Jinping is. Not even close. So I think that the ability of these two men to ensure that they continue to keep that relationship very, very strong is extremely high. And everyone I know that really asks the question about, oh, they're not going to last. Those are people that want them not to last. Well, that's not analysis. That's sales. I mean, you know, if you're just telling me what you want, you're not. It's not a useful. It's not a useful judgment on the, on the conversation. So I have a problem with that.
Patrick Bet-David
So out of all the good things that you said about Trump has done since he's won, the border is safer. Children are going to be safer. Okay. They're going and getting the criminals and sex traffickers out and arresting them. That protects kids. Right. Business is open. All these folks are publicly saying they're going to put a half a trillion dollars, $200 billion, $100 billion, $2 trillion, whatever. They're saying, you know, Saudi Arabia, that's a good thing, that they're putting money here, that benefits the American employees right here. Russia, Ukraine. So you said 90% of things he's done better to make your life better as your CEO of the country that you've chosen to live in. The one thing that makes you be more supportive of a Kamala and a Biden than him is because of his relationship with Musk.
Ian Bremmer
No, not something. That wasn't the only thing I said.
Patrick Bet-David
What else did you say?
Ian Bremmer
I did. I talked about Europe. I talked about Europe. I talked about rule of law. Look, I, I.
Patrick Bet-David
Rule of law, like. Yes. Do you think rule of law, like, seriously, I mean, on the rule of law situation, like, what they did to him the last 18 months, you think that was okay? You think they didn't abuse the rule of law against a candidate that's going.
Ian Bremmer
Up the New York cases? I absolutely thought that was abusive, and I said it at the time.
Patrick Bet-David
They went to Chicago. They. You think he's gonna do worse than what they did to him the last 18 months? Ian, you're a very smart guy.
Ian Bremmer
We'll See? We'll see. I don't know. I mean, you can't.
Patrick Bet-David
I mean, the president pardoned his idiots.
Ian Bremmer
I'm deeply worried. I am deeply worried about the fact that he has taken the national. The security detail off of Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, who the Islamic Republic. Right. Are trying to assassinate. I think that is one of the most irresponsible decisions by a president I have ever seen in my life, honestly. And why is he doing it? Because he. Because he wants to show he can. Because they did bad things to him. Because they were inadequately loyal even after they worked for him. That's bullshit. I'm sorry. So, again, I mean, I know you agree with that. I know you agree with that.
Patrick Bet-David
Hear me out, though.
Ian Bremmer
Do you agree with that?
Patrick Bet-David
Hear me out.
Ian Bremmer
Answer my question. But I asked. I've asked it all your questions. Answer that one. Because I can tell that one that troubles you.
Patrick Bet-David
You. I'm not gonna say.
Ian Bremmer
You're not gonna do it.
Patrick Bet-David
No, it's not about. I'm not gonna do it. You haven't done any of it. I've asked you so far. So let me finish mine and I'll give you mine. I will. Okay. Okay, I'll ask it. I'll give it to you. So just the part on where I want to go with this. Okay. Predictions.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
You said, I don't know. I said how they've treated him, the. The government and the abuse of power the last 18 months. You think he's going to do worse than they did to him? You said, I don't know. We'll see. Okay.
Ian Bremmer
I don't know.
Patrick Bet-David
Well, come on. I mean. But fine, but let me ask you this question. We have a new site called VTNews AI. We hired 15 machine learning engineers and it's a new site that tells you which one. Which stories leaning on the left being reported. If you look at it, that stories being reported more from the left and the right. Sports, politics, business. And there's AI component. You can ask questions. And on the bottom right of the website, we have a new initiative we're doing right now called the first 100 days.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
To see how good people are at making predictions. Right. Trump's first 100 days. What kind of predictions are going to make? You're a prediction guy.
Ian Bremmer
You look at my top risk.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. So here's your.
Ian Bremmer
Read it.
Patrick Bet-David
Here's your prediction.
Ian Bremmer
Right at the bottom. Trump. Trump fails. Red herring. Well, that's where you're going. Right.
Patrick Bet-David
So. No, no, I'm not going there. I'M not going.
Ian Bremmer
Darn it.
Patrick Bet-David
You're. Your prediction as top 10 global risk for 2024. I'm going to read them.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
I'm sorry, 2025, not 2024.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Ian Bremmer.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Legit guy, 250 employees. Smart guy, brilliant. 15 years old. College, Tulane. Russia. 86, 89. Crazy guy, right? Armenian guy.
Ian Bremmer
I love him.
Patrick Bet-David
I. I like him a lot. I just met him for the first time today. Right.
Ian Bremmer
But you're like, he's surprised. So fun and charming.
Patrick Bet-David
No, I actually like him. So Ian Bremmer's top risks for 2025.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Maybe we'll have dinner to together next year in Davos. Who knows? But let me read this to you.
Ian Bremmer
Number one, they're gonna say the Armenians are in charge of the great reset. Can you imagine that? It's gonna be horrible.
Patrick Bet-David
Zero world.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. Number two, rule of dawn.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Number three, u. S. China breakdown.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Number four, Trumponomics.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, sure.
Patrick Bet-David
Number five, Russia rogue role. Number six, Iran on the ropes. Number seven, global economic fragmentation. Number eight, AI unbound. Number nine, ungoverned spaces. Number 10, Mexican standoff. Right. Okay.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah, cool. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
We're playing a game. That's a movie simulation. Okay.
Ian Bremmer
Okay.
Patrick Bet-David
And it's 2016. And. And this technology we have can predict that the next nine years. From 2015-20. Let's just go. Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
16 to 25. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
From 16 to 25, January 20th.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
It shows you everything. Trump's first term and Biden's first term.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
It shows you everything except for one thing. Which of the two presidents and who they pardon. If I was to ask you in 2026, Mr. Prediction.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Who is more likely to pardon his entire family?
Ian Bremmer
Oh, yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
At that point you have said, I would have said Trump, but who did?
Ian Bremmer
It was Biden.
Patrick Bet-David
So think about what you just said. I asked you the last 18 months, they destroyed this guy's life.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
And I said, do you think he's gonna do the same? You said, we'll see. But when I ask you who you think is gonna pardon his own family? He never pardoned his own family. And this guy pardons his own family.
Ian Bremmer
It's interesting.
Patrick Bet-David
It's never happened before to see something like this.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Any pardons voucher. Any pardons melee. Any pardon.
Ian Bremmer
I thought that was a huge mistake. Again, absolutely.
Patrick Bet-David
But that's the part with that is as a something gives me. I'm not gonna ask who you voted for, but I have a feeling you didn't vote for Trump.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah. I'M public. I didn't vote for Trump.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah. So let's. You don't vote for Trump.
Ian Bremmer
Right.
Patrick Bet-David
But the question becomes, this is why I think the Democratic Party took the biggest black eye ever, because we were told, this is the guy that's gonna pardon something on family.
Ian Bremmer
Don't do it.
Patrick Bet-David
And we were told Biden said, no man is above the law, and he pardoned his entire family. Do you know what happened to the Democratic credibility? To me right here, it got hurt. Not hurt completely. This is not heard. This is the first time in history. It's shattered. Yes, it's shattered. And it hurt a lot of the experts who were saying there, here's what's going to happen. 51 secret intelligence signed off that there's nothing in the laptop and Russian collusion. Schiff and all this credibility was shot.
Ian Bremmer
I agree. I think that, again, I think the country is incredibly divided. And I think that what you are talking about is something that is very widely felt by, you know, pretty much everyone that would consider voting for Trump. And I think everyone on the Democratic side would say they do it. This was necessary because look how bad Trump was going to be. That's what they'll say. That's what they'll say. Where is there space for someone to actually have a conversation that can engage with both sides, that can be balanced? And the fact is, it's a really hard thing to do. It's easier in other countries. You know, it's. It's a reality. It's uncomfortable. But I'm not prepared to say this is, you know, all kumbaya on the Republican side.
Patrick Bet-David
Your life is better today under this guy than the Biden or.
Ian Bremmer
Look, I mean, I know you can't spend. I spend most of my time, most of my time thinking about the world. I spend most of my time thinking about the 8 billion people that are here. I understand that. I'm American. I understand that, you know, we care about Americans first and foremost. The end of the day. As someone who was born here by stroke of luck, and I'm enormously appreciative about that. That. But do I consider that Americans matter fundamentally more than everybody else around the world? No. I kind of feel like we're all human beings on this little ball, and I really care about what the little ball's going.
Patrick Bet-David
And, and I believe you're being sincere.
Ian Bremmer
I'm being completely sincere.
Patrick Bet-David
No, no, what I'm saying is we've never met. This is the first time we're talking. I believe you're being Sincere.
Ian Bremmer
And I. I worry more about the future of all of us on the little ball with Trump. I do. I really do.
Patrick Bet-David
And. And I'm on the complete opposite side of my level of optimism to people around the world. We ran election night, okay? Election night, we ran the number one live stream worldwide on YouTube. That doesn't mean anything to you? I don't get the numbers on what it is.
Ian Bremmer
It's pretty cool. It means something to me.
Patrick Bet-David
No, no, what I'm saying to you is, numbers wise, what does that really mean? We're in D.C. we're talking to YouTube CEO and Google CEO. You know who they are. And how'd you guys run the biggest live? And what happened? We had 2,000 people in our hangar. You've seen the property, the hangar on the other side, right?
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
2,000 people are there. You know where people were from all over the world. Guy flew 24 hours from Australia to come. I said, why are you here? He says this. You may not know this. Whatever happens here, we're going to feel it everywhere. And we're so glad Trump is in because the amount of games that was played under Biden and Kamala, we're just so happy. Finally another person is in that's not imposing ridiculous ideas and policies to us. And so I'm in the.
Ian Bremmer
And I'm telling you, the two countries that are closest to us, that know us best, that do the most business with us, that travel the most to our country, Mexico and Canada, overwhelmingly, these are people. It's not that they're scared of Trump. It's that they really think that things are going to be worse.
Patrick Bet-David
Trudeau goes and has dinner with him right after him.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, that was horrible.
Patrick Bet-David
Trudeau goes and have dinner with him. A week later, he resigns.
Ian Bremmer
Don't ask me to defend Trudeau.
Patrick Bet-David
Well, you just did.
Ian Bremmer
No, I didn't.
Patrick Bet-David
Canada. What?
Ian Bremmer
I said Canada. I'm talking about Canadians.
Patrick Bet-David
Have you seen his rate? What? His ratings? Have you seen.
Ian Bremmer
Have you seen how conservatives feel about Trump and Elon? Well, even. Even worse.
Patrick Bet-David
I don't know about that.
Ian Bremmer
That is absolutely true.
Patrick Bet-David
Listen, I know what Pierre said. Like, I heard what Pierre said when he said, you know, Canada will never be the 51st state. And he has to say that. He has to say that.
Ian Bremmer
It's not just that, it's because everybody feels that way.
Patrick Bet-David
And. And. No, but. But the. But the point is with. Am I sitting there trying to really make those guys happy? No, no, we've made them happy. Their life's been better because of America of the amount of opportunities they've had because of us. Yet Mexico, you're sending 10 million people over Columbia, guy gets up and talks shit at 3:40 in the morning. Some are saying he was drunk. And immediately later it's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. No, I think there's a guy in charge in America, that his priority is me first. And as a guy that lived in Iran for 11 years, almost two years, Germany, and I've been here my entire life since then, I'm glad that this guy's for me over anybody else that he's willing to give money to than us taking.
Ian Bremmer
But where I will tell you, and where we agree strongly.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
Is I really want him to succeed.
Patrick Bet-David
I love that.
Ian Bremmer
I do not want.
Patrick Bet-David
I love that and I respect that.
Ian Bremmer
That's important.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah.
Ian Bremmer
And we need more people, no matter who they vote for, to be able to come together and say that. Because I really wanted Biden to succeed. And I hope you did, too. You know, he was your president you wanted Biden to see, didn't you, when he was there?
Patrick Bet-David
Of course I.
Ian Bremmer
Of course you did. Of course you did. This shouldn't be hard for us to say no. And I mean, at the end of the day, succeeding as the American president in the most powerful country in the world in a much stronger position now than we have been in a very long time means everybody succeeds. It really should.
Patrick Bet-David
What will need to happen for you to say life was better under Trump? What needs to happen the next year? Two years, Three years? I'm gonna invite you back. We're gonna go to dinner. I'll tell you what needs to happen for the great Ian Bremmer to say my life changed positively under Trump. What needs to happen? Armenians are stubborn. So I don't know if I can.
Ian Bremmer
I am very stubborn. But if the world is in a more stable place, if we are able to actually build leadership not just for Americans, but also for people wanting to follow us around the world. Right. And we see that definably. Right. In aligning more with like, collective ideas of. We have. The world is fragmenting and falling apart. We need to come together. And that means it can't just be America first.
Patrick Bet-David
So let me ask you. So if your parents. You're. You're. Let's just say you're. Are you married? You got kids?
Ian Bremmer
Okay, no kids, but I'm married. Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. So let's just say you're married.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Okay. Let's say you're in a house with mom and dad, four kids. I'm Just making up a number. You're in the family.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
What's more important? Would you rather have your family, marriage, family life, everything be good there or bring it down too notch, but make sure everybody else's marriage is also better around the community? Community. I mean, you got the way.
Ian Bremmer
That's a very good question.
Patrick Bet-David
Many, many years ago, my mother would.
Ian Bremmer
Have voted for Trump.
Patrick Bet-David
And I love your mother. I think your mother is.
Ian Bremmer
And Bernie Sanders. And she wouldn't have. She would have voted for Bernie without a question. She would never vote for an establishment.
Patrick Bet-David
Politician like a Hillary.
Ian Bremmer
Ever. Or Bush. Never. Never. She didn't trust those people because they did nothing for her kids. Nothing for her kids. They knew. She fundamentally knew that everything they said was a lien. No, I don't think she'd be for Kamala Biden. I think she would have voted for anyone on the far left or far right. I think she would have voted for rfk, left or far right.
Patrick Bet-David
Wow.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah. I mean, she. She brought the national. I read. I learned how to read in part with the National Enquirer every week, you know, and everyone that I grew up with. And the projects were like that.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, of course. Well, to me, I think many, many years ago, I was a salesperson. I went from being an employee to a salesperson. Started making money.
Ian Bremmer
Yeah.
Patrick Bet-David
Then I became a sales leader. And when I was a sales leader, I was making a lot of money. Well, my guys were making Money. I was 27, 28 years old. And I'm like, yeah, we got to make some money. And my guys got to make some money as well. And then I. For about three years, all. All I read, any book I read was all about leadership books. So it's my obsession. It's all I read. Everything was about leadership books. And then I realized, you know, the mindset was about making sure guys are doing better. Then people started making money, and I said, okay, so what is the philosophy of leadership? It was two things. One is the example. Okay? The example. You set how you live. You're setting an example how you live. And then the other one is getting people to do things they typically wouldn't do on their own. That's the art of persuasion, Challenging, driving, motivating, whatever you want to call that. Right. I think Trump is doing his best to set the example as America's going to lead the free world. And number two, in his own creative ways, using tariffs, challenge, threats, opportunities, he's trying to get people that would do things that they typically wouldn't do on their Own. Such as increasing the amount of money they're given to NATO. Such as getting their actor to get back to work. There's a. Who was the president of this country? Like some of you guys are asking, America's no longer sending us money. Do you know which one I'm talking about, Rob, that Brandon and I were talking about earlier with Rob. You know which one this is? And he says, why are you waiting for America to send us money? Listen, we need to take care of our country. We need to do something about it. Rob, can you. Brandon, can you send this clip to Rob?
Ian Bremmer
Vinny, Was it Bukele?
Patrick Bet-David
Oh, no. This is a clip that came out yesterday that was going viral on Twitter. I want. I want to finish on this, but I want to show this. Brandon, if you can send this clip. It's such an innocent clip, but it makes so much sense.
Ian Bremmer
I believe I have it. Vinnie, you said Vinnie sent it.
Patrick Bet-David
Yeah, Vinnie, send it.
Ian Bremmer
I have it.
Patrick Bet-David
If you can go to it, I'll tell you, that's exactly the one.
Ian Bremmer
Kenyan president.
Patrick Bet-David
Kenyan president Ruto. Yeah, yeah.
Ian Bremmer
Watch it. He's good.
Patrick Bet-David
Go back. Watch it the other day. Crying.
Ian Bremmer
Oh, I don't know.
Patrick Bet-David
Trump has removed money.
Ian Bremmer
He said he's not giving us any more money.
Patrick Bet-David
Why are you crying? It's not your government.
Ian Bremmer
It's not your country.
Patrick Bet-David
More audio, a little bit.
Ian Bremmer
Rob.
Patrick Bet-David
Watch.
Ian Bremmer
He has no reason to give you anything.
Patrick Bet-David
I mean, you don't pay tax.
Ian Bremmer
Taxes in America.
Patrick Bet-David
Wow. He's appealing to his people.
Ian Bremmer
This is a wake up call for.
Patrick Bet-David
You to say, okay, what are we going to do to ourselves? That's right. Instead of crying to what are we going to do? What are we going to do? Yeah, I think that's the mindset to support ourselves. I think the mindset is too supportive. Support ourselves. You don't pay taxes in America. He doesn't owe you nothing. I agree. So that's the part where for the last four years, it's been the other way around. We, the taxpayers are sending money to people that were like, why are we sending money to this?
Ian Bremmer
I completely understand why the average American would hear that. It would resonate with them. I get it. I will tell you that if you are in the top 1%, the 0.1%, or if you're in the government and aligned with them, and you have benefited from exploiting resources all over the world. You've benefited from us pumping carbon into the atmosphere when so many of these countries have not had a chance to globalize. And now they're saying what's going to happen to us? Whether, you know, you're a tiny little country in Southeast Asia or sub Saharan Africa, the idea that the Americans don't owe anything to anybody else in the rest of the world is not something that I sit well with. I'm just telling you. I'm telling you, man. And I think that this is a conversation that I want to see more Americans actually have. It's not just long form, but it's like looking at it from two completely different, reasonable perspectives, you know, and that's.
Patrick Bet-David
Why these are my favorite conversations. And I want to finish off by saying thank you for coming out to the audience. I hope you guys enjoyed this as much as I have. I can't wait for him to come back and tell us how great President Trump's been and be a spokesperson, maybe even make a long form video being complimentary about the president. I'm looking forward to that day, whether it'll happen or not. Who knows, Maybe a little bit of inspiration from mom, you know, to come out and say, my mom's the anti establishment side of your mom. But either way, I look forward to continuing this conversation with you. I got smarter. I enjoyed it. The debate was fun and you're a class act, very likable. I appreciate your time.
Ian Bremmer
Thanks, man.
Patrick Bet-David
Appreciate you. Take care.
Ian Bremmer
Good to be with you, gang.
Patrick Bet-David
Take care, everybody. Bye bye. Bye bye. Nowadays, more than ever, the brand you wear reflects and represent who you are. So for us, if you wear a Future Looks Bright hat or a valuetainment gear, you're telling the world. I'm optimistic. I'm excited about what's going to be happening. But you're a free thinker. You question things. You like debate. And by the way, last year 120,000 people got a piece of Future Looks Bright gear with valuetainment. We have so many new things. The cufflinks are here. New Future Looks Bright. This is my favorite, the green one. Just yesterday, somebody placed an order for a hundred of these. If you watch the PBD podcast, you got a bunch to choose from. White ones, black ones. If you smoke cigars and you come to our cigar lounge, we have this high quality lighter cutter and a holder for the cigars. We got sweaters with the valuetainment logo on it. We got mugs. We got a bunch of different things. But if you believe the Future looks bright, if you follow our content and what we represent with valuetainment with PVD podcast, go to vtmerch.com and by the way, if you order right now, there's going to be a special VT gift inside just for you. So again, go to vtmerch.com place your order. Tell the world that you believe the future looks bright.
PBD Podcast Episode 542: “Trump Would’ve Won Without Musk” - Ian Bremmer DEFENDS Davos, Deep State & Global Elite Agendas
Release Date: February 3, 2025
Host: Patrick Bet-David
Guest: Ian Bremmer, Geopolitical Expert and New York Times Bestseller
In Episode 542 of the PBD Podcast, host Patrick Bet-David engages in a comprehensive and candid conversation with renowned geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer. The discussion traverses Bremmer's extensive background, his perspectives on global governance, the influence of elite organizations like the World Economic Forum (WEF), the notion of a deep state, and the dynamics influencing the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Bremmer’s Unconventional Start:
Ian Bremmer shares his unique journey into the world of geopolitics, highlighting his attendance at Tulane College at the tender age of 15. This early entrance paved the way for his exposure to international affairs, notably his trips to the Soviet Union during pivotal moments in history.
An Electrocution Incident in Moscow:
At 16, Bremmer recounts a harrowing experience in Moscow's Hotel Rossiya. While attempting to turn on a lamp, he accidentally touched exposed wires, resulting in electrocution and unconsciousness. This incident was a significant wake-up call, underscoring the stark differences between American and Soviet infrastructures and safety standards.
Notable Quote:
"My finger went into the copper wires. I electrocute myself and pass out." (11:16)
Witnessing the Collapse:
Bremmer reflects on his presence in Ukraine during the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1992. Observing the mass celebrations for independence profoundly influenced his belief in democracy's triumph over authoritarianism.
Globalization’s Dual-Edged Sword:
While Bremmer advocates for globalization's benefits—such as reducing poverty and increasing the global middle class—he criticizes its failures, particularly in the United States. He argues that globalization has disproportionately benefited the wealthy and global middle class while leaving the American middle and working classes behind.
Notable Quote:
"Globalization is wonderful. I love the fact that people and goods and services and ideas move faster and faster around the world. But globalism, the idea that you can get your hands on power and promote these things and not care about your own fellow countrymen, I don't accept that at all." (27:52)
Debunking the Deep State Myth:
Patrick Bet-David probes into the idea of a deep state, referencing Bremmer’s appearances at elite gatherings like the WEF. Bremmer clarifies that while networking organizations like the WEF facilitate connections among global leaders, they do not wield direct control over world affairs.
Critique of Elite Networking:
Bremmer emphasizes that organizations such as the WEF are more about efficient networking and deal-making rather than orchestrating global policies. He dismisses the notion that these bodies have clandestine control over global events.
Notable Quote:
"These organizations have virtually no power in and of themselves and they serve as networking organizations to help people get deals done." (58:24)
Fragmented Information Landscape:
Bremmer discusses how the fragmentation of media—exacerbated by social media algorithms—has deepened political divisions in the United States. The rise of echo chambers and segmented information sources contributes to a polarized electorate.
Impact on Democracy:
He argues that the breakdown of a unified information space undermines democratic processes, making it harder for Americans to find common ground and engage in civil discourse.
Notable Quote:
"Social media and the ability to communicate directly with people with comparatively limited amount of funds available is a completely game changer for undermining the establishment." (29:19)
Anti-Establishment Sentiment:
Bremmer posits that widespread dissatisfaction with the political establishment set the stage for Trump’s potential victory, even without high-profile endorsements from figures like Elon Musk or Bobby Kennedy.
Economic and Social Challenges:
He attributes Trump's strong performance to economic challenges such as high inflation and migration issues, which he believes were inadequately addressed by the incumbent administration. Bremmer suggests that these factors outweighed the influence of endorsements.
Notable Quote:
"I think I still would have expected a very close race, but I thought Trump was going to win this race." (49:26)
Top Global Risks for 2025:
Bremmer outlines his top global risks, including economic fragmentation, advancements in AI, regional conflicts like Russia-Ukraine, and the challenges posed by ungoverned spaces. He underscores the importance of addressing these risks to maintain global stability.
Role of Institutions:
He advocates for strong institutions that uphold rule of law and democratic values, warning against the erosion of these principles which could lead to increased global instability.
Notable Quote:
"If you are in a position of power in that environment, it's a real democracy and the election isn't rigged, you just got hammered and that's the reality." (41:19)
Continued Political Polarization:
Bremmer expresses concern over the persistent and deepening political divisions in the U.S., attributing them to class divisions, identity politics, and the fragmented media landscape.
Tariffs and Economic Policy:
The conversation touches on the strategic use of tariffs in foreign policy. Bremmer supports the use of tariffs as tools for national security and economic leverage but criticizes the scattershot approach taken by Trump, which he believes leads to unintended negative consequences.
Notable Quote:
"Tariffs are an indispensable tool for the United States in foreign policy, but you want to use them strategically." (57:38)
Relationship with Influential Figures:
Bremmer discusses Trump’s relationships with influential figures like Elon Musk, highlighting how these alliances play a role in political dynamics and campaign strategies.
Notable Quote:
"Trump is more transactional and more pay for play. [...] Elon is very careful. He's very pro Communist Party." (122:24)
The episode concludes with Bremmer expressing his concerns about the current trajectory of American politics and global governance. He emphasizes the need for unity and structural reforms to address long-term issues such as economic inequality and political polarization. While recognizing the potential benefits of Trump's policies in certain areas, Bremmer remains cautious about the broader implications for democratic institutions and global stability.
Notable Quote:
"I really want him to succeed, but I don't think we have lived up to the promise of 1989 in 2025. The fact that people don't look up to our political system, the fact that we're so divided in this country right now, that is something that I'm not proud of." (20:12)
Key Takeaways:
Globalization's Mixed Impact: While beneficial on a macro scale, globalization has led to significant disparities within the U.S., undermining the American middle and working classes.
Media's Role in Polarization: The fragmentation and algorithm-driven nature of modern media have deepened political divides, making consensus more elusive.
Strategic Use of Tariffs: Tariffs can be effective tools for economic and national security policy when applied strategically, but misuse can disrupt supply chains and economic stability.
Influence of Elite Organizations: Organizations like the WEF facilitate high-level networking but do not exercise covert control over global policies.
2024 Election Dynamics: Anti-establishment sentiment and economic challenges are crucial factors in shaping election outcomes, potentially outweighing endorsements from influential figures.
This episode offers a nuanced exploration of current geopolitical trends, the interplay between domestic politics and global governance, and the underlying forces shaping the future of the United States and the world.