PBD Podcast | Ep. 718 | January 14, 2026

Trump's Credit Card CAP, Musk's Iran Move, 50% OnlyFans Tax + Efran Soltani Execution

Host: Patrick Bet-David (Pat)
Guests: Tom, Brandon, Mark Moss (macro investor, sound money advocate, Bitcoin VC)
Theme: Deep-dive analysis on headline financial, geopolitical, and socio-economic issues—current events with sharp business, economic, and personal development insights.

Episode Overview

This episode tackles a wide range of pressing topics: from catastrophic Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) debt and Gen Z’s financial woes, to Trump’s floated credit card interest rate cap and Iran sanctions, to the moral debate over a 50% OnlyFans tax. With macro investor Mark Moss joining for expert commentary, the panel brings nuanced discussion and contrarian viewpoints on critical stories driving today’s headlines.

Key Discussion Points

1. Argentina’s Fast Repayment: Credibility Restored

(Start – 17:20)

• Story: Argentina, led by libertarian President Milei, fully repaid a $2.5B US currency swap just months after receiving it, shocking global markets.
• Why it matters: Argentina had a notorious record of defaults; this rapid repayment signals improved fiscal discipline and restored credibility.
• Quote:
  • Pat: “Argentina was that person—every time you give them money, you never expect it back. Then boom: they pay it back, fast. Their credibility just went through the roof.” [13:58]
• Macro View:
  • Mark: “What Melei has done in that short time is nothing short of a miracle. This is what competence in the Trump administration looks like... Scott Besant is a surgeon.” [15:18]
• Wider point: Success of ‘good intervention’ when clear leadership and lender accountability are present.

2. BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later): Debt Trap for Gen Z

(19:58 – 35:01)

• Exploding usage: $20B spent via BNPL for holiday shopping—record high.
• Scary stats:
  • 63% of users have multiple BNPL accounts, 41% missed at least one payment in a year, and 50% of Gen Z missed a payment in just three months.
• Systemic risk:
  • Tom: “When you miss a payment, it’s wham bam! Suddenly you’re at the equivalent of 30% a year in interest.” [24:03]
• Parental warning:
  • Pat: “Parents, talk to your kids—if you can't afford to buy it, do not buy it. Sometimes the most basic principles are making a comeback.” [32:07]
• Market Viability:
  • Mark: “It will have staying power—people are always going to need to borrow money.” [35:01]
• Parallel: Will BNPL fizzle like Groupon/Living Social, or stick as a new credit mainstay? Panel leans toward it sticking, warning of long-term consumer harm.

3. Trump’s Credit Card 10% Rate Cap Proposal

(35:44 – 53:13)

• Trump's plan: One-year cap at 10% interest on credit cards (avg rate ~23.8%).
• Potential upside: Snap relief for revolvers in crippling debt, major political win.
• Concerns:
  • Mark: “Price controls have never worked in history. If you cut the rate, all those who don’t qualify get left without credit—turning them to BNPL or loan sharks.” [37:40]
  • Tom: “It's well intended, but if you put a cap, companies will just cut limits and people will turn to alternatives. The active market is already competitive.” [40:20]
• Quotes:
  • Pat: “Visa’s net profit margin is 47 to 52%. Are you flipping kidding me? They're printing money.” [47:13]
  • Mark: “If there’s a fat margin, competition will come eat the margin. That’s just how it works.” [52:40]
• Consensus: Intervention could backfire; smart disclosure and consumer education might be more effective than artificial caps.

4. Iran: 25% Tariff on Partners, Starlink for Freedom, Efran Soltani Execution

(56:08 – 65:40, 121:03-end)

• Tariffs:
  • Pat: “Who’s he really talking to? China and India. Will he really follow through?” [58:36]
  • Tom: “Iran’s already suffocating. He’s just hitting a dog that’s already been hit for a month.” [56:08]
• China’s parallel financial system:
  • Mark: “They’re quickly creating a system outside the dollar, settled in gold. The more we weaponize the dollar, the more we accelerate its demise.” [61:02]
• Starlink for Iranian Revolution:
  • Brandon: “Starlink is a game-changer—it could single-handedly aid revolutions. Having a single provider like Elon is risky—competition is crucial.” [66:03]
  • Pat: “An innovator without competition is control.” [72:37]
• Efran Soltani:
  • Pat closes with the harrowing story of a young Iranian executed for calling for freedom: “Can you imagine being charged with ‘waging war against God’ for wanting freedom? Stories like this need to be out there.” [121:03-end]

5. 50% OnlyFans Tax – Morality & Market Regulation

(86:40 – 93:45)

• Proposal by Florida Gubernatorial Candidate: 50% tax on all OnlyFans income, explicitly targeting top-earners like Sophie Rain.
• Moral debate:
  • Mark: “This is a Bernie Sanders-type position. I don’t like what these girls are doing, but taxing them to guide morality? That’s wrong.” [87:48]
  • Tom: “If a free, legal market is operating, government shouldn’t interfere—unless there’s genuine societal harm, like lead paint. Otherwise, it’s a sham.” [89:19]
  • Brandon: “You can’t weaponize the government against things you don’t like. He’s just being outrageous for attention.” [92:06]
• Consensus: Dangerous precedent; morality should be shaped by culture, not state-imposed penalties.

6. The Great Millennial Career Crisis: Hopelessness or Victim Mindset?

(96:32 – 104:25)

• Reality: Millennials reporting stagnation, burnout, and surrender to student debt.
• Panel response:
  • Brandon: “It is a victim mindset. Yes, it's tough. But you have to be exceptional—find commission, start a business, get creative.” [96:32]
  • Mark: “The promise was broken: universities equipped people for a world that no longer exists. But it's never been easier to make money—if you see the new world. Creativity is the #1 skill.” [97:41]
  • Pat: “The key is raising kids who can think critically and solve problems, regardless of college.” [105:16]
• Actionable insight: Modern success requires adaptability, skills, and creative problem solving—not just degrees.

7. Housing & Affordability: Mortgages, Escrow, and the Squeeze

(74:20 – 82:19)

• Trump’s new plan: $200B in mortgage bond buying to drive down rates.
• Critiques:
  • Brandon: “It’s another name for QE; it’ll just inflate prices more.” [76:09]
  • Mark: “You can’t fix this by building more in the wrong places or just tweaking bonds. Most buy payments, not prices. And insurance/property taxes are skyrocketing.” [77:39]
• Broader problem: Stagnant wages, supply shortages, rising taxes and insurance—need for profound structural change, not just short-term relief.

8. Small Cars Disappear: Regulations & Rental Generation

(108:44 – 115:07)

• End of the $20,000 new car: Nissan cancels Versa, last sub-$20k new car in US.
• Causes:
  • Mark: “It’s not lack of demand but regulatory overkill—could easily sell robust, affordable vehicles if it weren’t for safety and emissions red tape from high-reg states.” [110:37]
  • Tom: “Gen Z increasingly rents or Ubers—car ownership is less appealing or necessary.” [112:17]
  • Pat: “Maybe we balance incentives: subsidize truly affordable cars, streamline the rules, and get creative.” [115:15]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Pat [13:58]: “Argentina was that person—every time you give them money, you never expect it back. Then boom: they pay it back, fast.”
• Mark [15:18]: “What Melei has done…is nothing short of a miracle. This is what competence in the Trump administration looks like.”
• Tom [24:03]: “When you miss a BNPL payment, it’s wham bam! Suddenly you’re at the equivalent of 30% a year in interest.”
• Pat [32:07]: “Parents, talk to your kids—if you can't afford it, don’t buy it.”
• Mark [37:40]: “Price controls have never worked in history. If you cut the rate, all those who don’t qualify get left without credit—turning them to BNPL or loan sharks.”
• Pat [47:13]: “Visa’s net profit margin is 47 to 52%. Are you flipping kidding me? They're printing money.”
• Mark [61:02]: “China is quickly creating a system outside the dollar, settled in gold. The more we weaponize the dollar, the more we accelerate its demise.”
• Pat [72:37]: “An innovator without competition is control.”
• Mark [87:48]: “This is a Bernie Sanders-type position. I don’t like what these girls are doing, but taxing them to guide morality? That’s wrong.”
• Pat [105:16]: “The key is raising kids who can think critically and solve problems, regardless of college.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Argentina repayment & credibility: 11:18 – 17:20
• BNPL crisis explained: 19:58 – 32:07
• Credit card rate cap proposal: 35:44 – 53:13
• Iran tariffs, China’s gold swaps: 56:08 – 64:49
• Starlink and Iranian internet blackout: 65:04 – 72:46
• 50% OnlyFans tax proposal: 86:40 – 93:45
• Millennial crisis & career advice: 96:32 – 104:25
• Affordable cars & rental generation: 108:44 – 115:52
• Efran Soltani execution and Iran's struggle: 121:03 – episode end

Tone & Style

• Unfiltered, sharp, sometimes irreverent back-and-forth.
• Mix of humor, deep macroeconomic analysis, and practical advice.
• Strong emphasis on personal accountability, entrepreneurial thinking, and the value of critical debate.

Summary

Ep. 718 is a punchy, idea-rich episode blending urgent current events (Iran, US financial policy), structural economic trends (BNPL, housing, car markets), and provocative moral/legislative proposals (OnlyFans tax, credit caps). Panel offers not just critique, but strategic thinking for both policymakers and everyday listeners, with a consistent thread: educate yourself, think critically, and adapt to a world where old rules no longer apply.