← People I (Mostly) Admire
People I (Mostly) Admire
23. Greg Norman & Mark Broadie: Why Golf Beats an Orgasm and Why Data Beats Everything
00:42:15
Steve Levitt is obsessed with golf — and he’s pretty good at it too. As a thinly-veiled ploy to improve his own game, Steve talks to two titans of the sport: Greg “The Shark” Norman, who was the world’s top-ranked golfer for more than six years; and Mark Broadie, a Columbia professor whose data analysis changed how pros play the game. This episode originally aired on March 9th, 2021.
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A rich life isn't a straight line
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to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn, with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made
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rich by the people you walk it with.
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Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC the day begins
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at the Chase Sapphire Lounge by the club. At Boston Logan Airport, you get the clam chowder In San Diego, it's Tostadas New York. Espresso martini. It's 10am why not? It's the quiet before your next flight, the shower that resets your day, the menu that lets you know where you are. This is access to over 1300 airport lounges and every Sapphire Lounge by the club. And one card that gets you in Chase Sapphire Reserve now even more rewarding. Learn more@chase.com Sapphire Reserve cards issued by JP Morgan, Chase bank and a member FDIC subject to credit approval.
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If you're a Freakonomics radio listener, you might already know that I'm obsessed with golf. Here's Stephen Dubner. I am obsessed with how obsessed you are with golf. That is my obsession. Yeah, I love.
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C
You are.
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B
You're nuts, Levitt. I mean, let's face it, I do love golf. I love golf more than any normal person could. I think I love golf because I I really wanted to be good at it as a kid, and I completely and totally failed. And much of my adult life has been devoted to trying to undo the mistakes I made as a child. As a teenager, the one thing I wanted more than anything else was to be a professional golfer. Reality, however, was not kind to that adolescent dream. Forget about turning pro. I wasn't even good enough to play college golf. I quit soon after almost 20 years had passed when, on my 40th birthday, I hatched a preposterous plan. I decided I would take up golf again, with the objective of finally realizing my childhood dream of turning pro, this time on the Champions Tour. For golfers age 50 and over, that gave me exactly 10 years to go from below average to world class.
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Welcome to people I mostly admire with Steve Levitt.
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I'm 53 now, and it probably won't surprise you that I never made the Champions Tour, despite investing an absurd amount of time and effort into the pursuit. It was, however, one of the most enjoyable escapades I've ever been on, but much less interesting and successful than the golf journeys of the two people I talk with today. My first guest is Greg Norman, the Shark. He was the number one ranked golfer in the world for more than six years. Only Tiger woods has held that top spot longer. And it's fitting that this episode airs on the weekend of the Masters golf tournament, because for many golf fans, the most enduring memory of Greg Norman's career is the grace with which he handled the repeated misfortunes that denied him that championship. My second guest, Mark Brody, has achieved enormous success in golf, pursuing a very different path than Greg Norman. Mark is widely acknowledged as a world's expert in golf analytics. Through the thoughtful use of data, he's transformed the way just about everyone, including me, thinks about golf. My biggest challenge in today's conversations is to find a way to make them interesting to people who don't care about golf. When I first had the idea for a golf episode, I was confident I could do it. Right now, as I'm about to conduct these interviews, I honestly feel like there's a pretty good chance I'm going to fail in that regard. So I think people forget how good you were at golf. It's unbelievable. If you had to divide the credit for your success between natural talent, hard work, smart choices, luck, like, what kind of percentages would you apply to those
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C
different traits from natural talent? I didn't know I had it because first started off, I had a 27 handicap and got it down to scratch in 18 months. And about five years later, I won my first professional golf tournament. So natural talent was there, but I had no idea. I think a lot of my abilities came from my work ethic because I'm very much a determined individual. I'm a compartmentalized type of guy. So I stay extremely focused on things that I do. And I have a great saying called din and dip. Do it now and do it proper. But I was a really good surfer, and I truly believe surfing and golf are very close in a lot of ways. And what I mean by that, Steve, is the proprioception in your bodies, right? You gotta know where your body is in any given time. On the surfboard, there's a lot of variables coming at you. The size of the wave, waves crashing down on you, wind pushing you around, the speed of the wave. But you're always planted, you're always stationary on the board, but the rest of your body's got to relax. No different to some degree with golf. You plant your feet on the ground and your upper body's got to be relaxed, and you got to have great rotation and It's a perception as that board's moving around underneath your feet, you've got to feel that. So you've got to make these minute little corrections with what? Your abs, your glutes, your hamstrings, whatever. Then with a golf swing, it's the same. When you get to the top level, you, you can change your golf swing by a quarter of an inch on the downswing if you feel a little bit out because of your proprioceptions, you're very aware where your body is in space at any given time.
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B
It blows my mind that you went from a 27 handicap to scratch in 18 months. At the age of 40, I had a midlife crisis. I hadn't picked up a golf club in 15 years, and I decided that I would try to make the Champions Tour. And I spent the next, I don't know, seven years of my life for a guy who's got other jobs and stuff, pretty single mindedly trying to be a good golfer. And I was able to get down to a three handicap by going down about two to three strokes a year. The thought that you could go down 20 strokes in a year, is there any other person on the planet who's ever accomplished that?
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C
Look, I just know that I was very focused in getting my golf swing into a place where it was controllable, number one, manageable number two. And there was a power swing too. My coach said to me in the beginning, Greg, hit it as hard as you possibly can hit it, and then we'll figure out how to hit it straight. So most people try and hit the ball straight, and then they want more power and they try and get the power out of their equipment instead of having the power already predetermined or preloaded in your system, and then you scale yourself back. So when I played the game, even though it was one of the longest drivers of the golf ball, very rarely did I go at it 100%. When I look at old footage of myself now, you can see that I was always at about 85%, never above 90, unless I really had to turn it on. And when I needed that extra distance, I could do it at the drop of a hat, just by the rotation of my body.
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B
A lot of academic work's gone into studying practice and optimal approaches to improving at something. When you started, how did you maximize the feedback to improve so quickly?
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C
I think I probably just approached it, like I said, in compartmentalizing. If I felt something was not right with the technique, I would focus on that until I got it right. And if it took 10,000 hits, then it took 10,000 hits. If it took me four or five swings to feel okay, I got it. And four or five swings and my confidence level was there. I never had any drills, per se. I had my coach, obviously, when I was a professional, but I didn't have an entourage of people just trying to mentally get me prepared to be a professional or anything like that. I read a lot. I kept a lot of notes, reference my notes, my improvements on my negativities with my golf swing and physicality and mentally. So I was always trying to climb a ladder to get to the top, But I never really wanted to get to the top, because once you're there, there's only one way to go, and that's down.
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B
Now, practice must have been really important. Obviously, as you were getting better. You're known for having practiced so hard even when you were number one in the world. Was practice that important once you'd gotten that good?
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C
Oh, no. Practice was the key. I estimate I've hit about 5 million golf balls in my career. I practiced more than I actually played. Occasionally I'd go out and play 18 holes after I hit balls, but most of the time I was just so tired from hitting a thousand balls a day plus that I didn't want to go play. Next was basically maintenance of your body afterwards. My practice routine was very regimented, very controlled. It was almost like a third, a third, a third in a lot of ways. A third of it was the middle irons to the scoring irons. A third of it was your longer irons to your three wood to your driver, and the last third was your short game. And I always balanced every single one of those segments out to make sure there wasn't anyone that's going to be a little skewed because I didn't spend the time on effort on it. So when I played around a golf in a tournament and I hit a poor five iron from a hanging lie, I go find a hanging lie on the driving range and hit 50 to 150 golf balls to figure out why I did it.
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B
You raised an interesting point there, because most people's practice, certainly amateurs, all comes at a driving range off of perfect lies. But, you know, we're always in the rough. Did you spend a lot of time putting your balls under trees and hitting out from under trees and stuff, or did you mostly, like others, hit off driving ranges with good lies?
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C
No, you hone your skills off a flat lie. But, yes, I would practice out of divots. I'D practice out of downhill lies, I'd practice short swing from underneath the tree, I'd practice on my knees, I'd practice left handed shots, one handed shots. I'd practice in the rain, I'd practice in really high wind. You had to prepare yourself for whatever you may experience on the golf course. And I remember one of my early stages of my career, actually I was an amateur, to tell you the truth. There was a gentleman called Sami Makai and I was on the driving range hitting balls and he came up to me and he just picked up like 10 or 15 balls and he just kept throwing them in the rough or throwing them in a divot or throwing him some funky lie. Says you're never going to have a perfect lie on every shot except if you're on a tee of a par 3. So that's how I started.
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B
I assume you must have loved golf at the beginning. Was that a love affair that lasted or faded by the time you were at the top? Was it fun?
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C
Oh, yeah, it was fun. Hitting the perfect golf shop is better than having an orgasm, right? I mean, it really is a great feeling because if you got 187 yards and if you want to be really Precise, you got 187 and a half yards and you hit it flush in the middle, you hit the perfect trajectory, you landed at 187 and a half yards and you go, wow, how cool did that feel and look? Even in my heyday, if I hit three to five perfect shots around, I was really happy. And that's including putts and everything. You have a 90 foot putt, for example. It's very difficult to hit a perfect, solid 90 foot putt. And when you do and you get it in the sweet spot and the timing with your hands and the rotation of your shoulders and the stillness of your head and the quietness of your brain and the softness of your body. It is really a great, great sensation. And so it was always that to me, you were just chasing more orgasms, I guess is probably the best way of going because it was such a wonderful feeling.
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Did it feel better to do that in front of a crowd of 20,000 people or were you just as happy to do that alone on the range?
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C
Alone on the range is just the same, right? Because when you're playing in front of 20,000 people, you don't see 20,000 people. You just see the shot and you just want to execute that shot the best you can possibly execute it. And so you stay in the moment and you really don't see anybody. That being said, I'd much rather play in front of 20,000 people than play a tournament with nobody, because you feed off the enthusiasm and the excitement and the energy of the people who are following you.
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It's interesting you say that because in my obviously, you know, quixotic attempt to be a professional senior golfer, I got better and better. And I actually had a critical moment that changed everything for me. So I was playing in the BMW Pro Am at Conway Farms, and I got paired up with Steve Stricker. And on the front nine, everything just came together for me. And the pinnacle of it was we were on this short par four, and it couldn't have been more than like, maybe 275, 280 yards. It was a kind of green up on a little hill with some sand traps guarding the front. So I hit the ball, and about, I would say, 10 seconds after I hit the ball up at the green, there's all this noise going on. And Tiger woods was playing in the group in front of us, so we thought Tiger must be doing something xt. And as I walked up to the green, it turned out that my ball had hopped over the trap onto the green and then took this huge arc rolling down, had rolled to within maybe two and a half feet of the hole, almost for a hole in one on the par four. And the crowd was cheering for me. The strangest thing was it was one of the worst moments of my entire life. I hated every second of it. And I realized that I hated attention on the golf course. I hated the fact that I had to put a two foot downhill putt for eagle in front of, you know, a thousand people. Now, thank God I made it. But I had worked for something for seven years, and I ended up shooting, I think, 32 or 33 on the front night. I fulfilled every dream I'd ever had. And I realized I hated it more than anything, that I wanted to be alone on the range somehow for golf, for me, it's very personal. And I felt very exposed. People were calling my name. Like, for most people, it might have felt good. For me, it felt awful.
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C
Look, Steve, I've known a lot of players over my career. Players have actually reached the number one spot in the world for a short period of time and actually didn't want the limelight and didn't want the additional tension. I've seen that happen numerous times. So people like yourself, you have a comfort zone of where you want to be, and you're just happy to be there. It takes the select few, I guess, is the best way of saying who really want to push the envelope to extract the most value you can out of your life. And there's times when I've been out there too. When I first won in 1976, the fifth tournament I ever played in, I was an introvert and I couldn't get up in front of the microphone and speak. When I went into the clubhouse to be with the members of the golf club at the end for presentation, I was a shy kid standing in the corner and I actually said to myself, if I want to be a great golfer, I have to change the way I feel right now. It was a snap decision I made because I had to get up there in front of, I don't know, 50, 100, 120 people inside a clubhouse, all celebrating, and right there and then I pull myself out from being an introvert into being a public figure.
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B
Greg Norman never won the Masters, but he came oh so close, finishing second three times and third three times. And the way in which victory was repeatedly snatched away from him adds to the heartache. In 1986, an aging Jack Nicklaus went an incredible seven under par over the last ten holes to beat Norman by a single stroke. A year later, in a sudden death laugh, his opponent holed out from 47 yards to beat him. And most painfully in 1996, exactly 25 years ago, he squandered a six shot lead heading into the final 18 holes, but famously handled it with grace, concluding that last round with a big hug of his opponent. As I prepared for this interview, I asked a bunch of people who were golf fans what they thought about you. And what came up over and over is that you were amazingly gracious in the face of defeat. And it's interesting that you managed to turn the occasional failure among the many victories into a lasting legacy of respect. Do you have advice for people? How did you pull that off?
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It's sport, really. It's as simple as that. Golf is just a game. You can't live by it and you can't die by it, right? So I always felt that if somebody beat me on a given week, no matter whether it was a chip in or beat me by a stroke, they're trying to do that. They want to win just as much as I want to win. And if I get beaten, I'm going to say, hey, did somebody beat me on that day or that week because they were better than me that week? Or was it luck or was it I failed or I played poorly or I didn't concentrate. The end of the day, I can blame myself for many losses, but I also can say congratulations to other players who actually fair and squarely beat me with great golf.
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B
You make that sound easy. But you're such a tough competitor and you spend five hours on the course pushing as hard as you can to win. And then suddenly it's over and there's this void and you're supposed to go and talk to the press, taking inane questions. I think you're underselling how hard that task is. It just came naturally. Or did you have to work hard to be gracious in a setting like that?
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C
No, Steve, I didn't have to work hard at it at all. I think it was just naturally. My mindset. And my father always instilled in me. He said, greg, if somebody asks you a question, just tell them the truth. It'll never get you into trouble. So if I go into the media room and hey, why did you hit that really funky looking seven eye that you made a double bogey on? Why? Well, you know what? I didn't concentrate. I picked the wrong club. Whatever the reason is, you tell them it and then you can drop the ball and move on and just say, hey, I'm done. I can't add any more to it.
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B
Now, I get the feeling you were wound up pretty tight when you were younger, but I think you seem to be a lot more relaxed now than you used to be. Has that been a conscious investment? Investment in your part in philosophy or in a belief system? Or is it not right? Is it something that just happened with age?
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C
Look, I think it's just from experience. Yes. Yeah, sure. I was wound up at times. There was times when I was, you know, fighting a lot of things internally. Like people probably didn't believe in me and I wanted to prove people wrong. Over a period of time, as your success starts to generate momentum and your delivery mechanism, whether it's on the golf course, with your ability to hit a golf ball from point A to point B, or being a brand ambassador to Reebok or whoever you're endorsing to, being the brand owner to where you are today, being the living brand, you have to evolve. You have to make adjustments. You have to be learning to be better for whatever reason.
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You're listening to People I Mostly Admire
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with Steve Levitt and his conversation with
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renowned golfer Greg Norman.
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After this short break, Steve will return to talk with golf analyst Mark Brody. People at Mostly Admire is sponsored by Mint Mobile. If you're tired of spending hundreds on crazy High wireless bills, bogus fees and free perks that cost you more in the long run then a premium wireless plan from mint mobile for 15 bucks a month might be right for you. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. Ditch overpriced wireless and get three months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for 15 bucks a month. If you like your money, Mint Mobile is for you. Shop plans@mintmobile.com admire that's mintmobile.com and Meyer upfront payment of $45 for a three month five gigabyte plan required equivalent to $15 per month new customer offer for first three months only and full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details. Okay, I have to tell you, I was just looking on ebay where I go for all kinds of things I love.
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And there it was.
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That hologram trading card. One of the rarest. The last one I needed for my set. Shiny like the designer handbag of my dreams. One of a kind. Ebay had it and now everyone's asking, ooh, where'd you get your windshield wipers? Ebay has all the parts that fit my car. No more annoying, just beautiful. Millions of finds, each with a story. Ebay things people love.
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- [21:37]
B
I have to say one thing I will never forget from my conversation with Greg Norman is his response to my story about my lone moment of golf glory where I realized I'd been pursuing the wrong golf dream. Did you catch what he said? That I shouldn't feel bad because there are many people like me who can't get the most out of life because we're afraid to move out of our comfort zone. No doubt he's right. But how often does somebody body slam you with the painful truth directly to your face in front of hundreds of thousands of listeners? Luckily, I don't take myself too seriously. I suspect the conversation I will have with Mark Grody will be very different. What I find intriguing about Mark Mark is how remarkably successful he's been in getting his data driven approach adopted to the point where he's transformed the way just about everyone thinks and talks about golf. How in the world did he pull that Off. Maybe there's some lessons there for people like me who are also trying to change the world through data, but mostly with a lot less success. Mark, what's more fun, teaching at a business school or being the undisputed king of golf data analytics? You can be honest. You have tenure. I can't do anything about that.
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I think it's more fun to see ideas being used in practice. So I like everything I do. I like teaching, I like research. And I think doing golf analytics has exceeded my wildest expectations as far as the impact that it's had.
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B
So I'm guessing your initial forays into golf data were motivated probably by a desire to improve your own scores. Is that right?
- [23:10]
A
Not really. I knew there were questions in golf that could be answered with the analytical tools that I had, but there wasn't any data. So I was trying to answer, if a player could hit the ball 20 yards further, how would their score change? How many strokes would come off their score? Or what's the difference between an average PGA Tour player and a great PGA Tour player like Tiger Woods?
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B
Just to anchor people, before we get into what you have developed, the sorts of statistics that the PGA Tour collected before you around were really simple things like number of putts per round or driving distance, things of that nature. So can you explain what features of those statistics are unattractive for someone who wants to do real analytics?
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A
So those are easily collected statistics because they're primarily counting statistics. How many putts did a player take? How many fairways did a player hit? You can just count them, and that's been done for decades. But it's horrible to understand performance because a putt that sunk from three feet counts the same as a putt that sunk from 60ft. They're both one putts, but they're very different performances because Most players can one putt from three feet, and not many players can one putt from 60ft. So counting them the same doesn't make any sense. Same thing for something like fairways hit. You could miss a fairway and just be in the first cut of rough where you could be a couple yards off the fairway, or you could be in the woods or in the water or out of bounds, and they all count as a missed fairway, but they're very different performances.
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B
You devised a metric called strokes gained or lost. Could you explain just in the simplest possible terms what that metric is?
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A
Well, strokes gained is measuring performance relative to a benchmark. And I tell people that they already have a good intuitive notion of what strokes Gained is because they know what is a good shot and what's a bad shot. And so the way it would work is if you sink a one foot putt, you're equal to the benchmark. Because the average performance from one foot is to get the ball in the hole in one stroke. From 30ft, the average performance is to get the ball in the hole in two strokes. So if you one putt from 30ft, you've done one better than the benchmark where your strokes gained as plus one. And that's why it's so intuitive, because if you get the ball in the hole in fewer strokes, you know that there are good shots involved. And if you get the ball in the hole in more strokes, there are worse shots involved. And so you've lost strokes. And so strokes gained is just taking drives and approach shots and putts and putting them all in the same unit of stroke. So you can measure the difference between a 300 yard drive and a 320 yard drive, not in terms of 20 yards, but in terms of how many strokes do you gain.
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B
So your example for putting was pretty straightforward. But let me take the concept back to the tee. So the idea is, let's say there's a hole and on average it takes the pros 3.9 strokes to get the ball in the hole on that hole. So you're standing on the tee and you expect it to take 3.9 strokes. Now you hit your drive, and it's a fantastic drive. It's long and it's straight. And then what you would do with your metric is using econometrics, you would compute if the average pro had hit their drive to where you hit your drive, how many strokes would you expect it to take them to get it in the hole from there? So let's say it was a really great drive. So from that spot, you'd expect it to be 2.5 more strokes to get it into the hole. Then you already took one stroke to get there. Then that would mean that your expected score in the hole would be 3.5. But when you stood on the tee, it was 3.9. So the fact that after your drive it's gone down to 3.5 means that you gained 0.4 strokes via your drive. Is that a good description of what you're talking about?
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A
That's exactly right. And just continuing with your example, in one stroke, an average shot would get you one stroke closer to the hole. So you'd go from 3.9 on the tee to 2.9, say in the fairway or the rough after your shots. So one swing gets you one stroke closer to the hole, to the hole. Well, if you're not at 2.9, but if you're 2.5 strokes away because you hit this incredibly good drive, well, that's four. 10 better than an average stroke. And so that's why your strokes gained is plus 0.4, because you're 410 of a stroke closer than an average shot.
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B
So some nice features of strokes gained is number one. I think it's theoretically capturing the right notion of whether a shot is good or bad, because golf's all about score and getting in the hole. And so if your shot gets you in the hole faster or gets you closer to the hole, then that's the right measure of what we're trying to capture. And secondly, something that's really beautiful about it is like you said earlier, it translates the outcome of every shot into the same unit. Because intuitively, it might not be that obvious how you'd compare a drive to a six foot putt, but you've managed to do that by putting everything into the same unit of strokes gained. And I think the last thing is that it's pretty easy to understand.
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A
Yeah. And it all adds up. So at the end, if you end up scoring a 69 and the field average is, say 71, you're two strokes better than the field. Well, you can then go back and see which drives approach putts add up to that two stroke difference that you've gained on the field. And so it has this nice summation property that other metrics don't have.
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B
So academics are constantly coming up with ideas that they think are brilliant and maybe other academics think are brilliant. But in practice, it's usually impossible to get these new ideas adopted in the real world. So for instance, it took decades to get people to wear seatbelts and to quit smoking after the evidence was that there are health hazards. But seemingly you snapped your fingers and not only did the PGA Tour make strokes gained in official statistic, but it was immediately embraced by the entire golf community. Are you the most persuasive person on the planet?
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A
Not at all. I was fortunate of being in the right place at the right time, meaning I called up the PGA Tour to get access to their data in 2003, in 2004, in 2005. And the answer was always the same. Do you know how expensive it is for us to collect that data? We're not just going to give it away to you. Click. They hung up. And then in 2008, they said, you know what, we have all this great data and we're not exactly sure what to do with it. Can you help us out with putting? Because we know our putting stats aren't really very good. And I said, great. I have this thing, strokes gained putting, but we can also measure strokes gained driving and approach. No, no, no, no, no. We just want strokes gained putting. But I was really impressed with a brilliant idea that they had in terms of adoption. One of the things that they were doing was trying to get buy in from the golf influencers in the community. They had two rankings of putters on the PGA Tour, Ranking A and ranking B. And they would go to a player, a golf writer, a golf coach, and they would show them these two rankings, A and B. And they say, which one do you think better reflected putting on the PGA Tour last year? And they said, oh, ranking B for sure. Ranking A just doesn't make any sense. And then they would show them the results and they said, ranking A is our putts per round measure. And ranking B is this new thing, thing strokes gain putting. They said, great, let's use that. They never had to explain what it meant. They just got buy in from people because it made sense.
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B
That is brilliant. It's this extension of the idea of a blind test, right? People have tried it, say, with fake meat. So they go to Texas ranchers and they give them hamburger and then an impossible burger, and it turns out that they oftentimes can't tell the difference. And that kind of blind test is incredibly powerful for convincing people who otherwise I think are unconvincable, because they think they already know the answer. So we understand strokes gained now, and the PGA Tour collects all this data. So were there surprises? Did the results overturn strongly held conventional wisdom?
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A
One of the most famous expressions in golf is you drive for show and putt for dough. And the interpretation there is driving is great for looks, but when it comes down to winning tournaments and making money, it's really the putting that matters. One of the main conclusions that came out of the strokes gained analysis was ball striking is what separates the best players in the world from sort of the average PGA Tour pro. Ball striking, meaning driving and approach shots, is worth about 2/3 of the stroke difference. And short game and putting is worth about one third of the stroke difference. If you look at the top 10 players in the world, they're about two strokes per round better than an average PGA Tour player. So you can decompose their two stroke advantage and say 2/3 of it is from better shots outside 100 yards or ball striking, and one third is from better shots inside 100 yards or short game in putting.
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B
And that's interesting because roughly the number of shots that are in the long game versus the short game is about the same. So per shot, the difference in skill is higher for the longer shots than for the shorter shots. And how about per yard? So if I hit the ball 20 yards further, how many strokes around should
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A
that reduce my score on the PGA Tour level? Here's a way that I think about the distance accuracy trade off in driving. So take a long driver like Bryson DeChambeau or Dustin Johnson Roy McRoy. They're about 20 yards longer than PGA Tour average. Each one of those drives gains them about a tenth of a stroke over the field, which sounds minuscule, but there's 14 of these drives around, so that gains 1.4 strokes in a round. You now have to subtract the cost for the lost accuracy. And it turns out that these long drivers typically are at the bottom of the accuracy ranks. But what does that mean? It means they hit about one less fairway per round on average. And that's costly because missing a fair way compared to hitting it is about 3/10 of a stroke in cost. But if you only do that one more time, your 1.4 gain, you subtract a 0.3 stroke loss from accuracy. And now you're gaining 1.1 strokes per round. And so that encapsulates the distance, accuracy, trade off. And it shows that superior driving, even when you're not so accurate, gains you over a stroke around, over four strokes in a four round tournament. And it's a consistent weapon because distance doesn't come and go every day. If you're 20 yards longer, you're 20 yards longer all the time. Whereas putting, sometimes you're hot, sometimes you're not. Driving is a weapon for these players because it's such a repeatable and consistent skill. Foreign.
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Okay, I have to tell you, I was just looking on ebay where I go for all kinds of things I love. And there it was, that hologram trading card.
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One of the rarest.
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B
past a place for rent and wish you could just take a peek inside? Maybe even explore the layout? Envision the natural light streaming through the windows, or plan where your vinyl record collection would go. At apartments.com you can. With tools like their 3D virtual tours, you can see the exact unit you could be living in. Really envision yourself in your new home with apartments.com the place to find a place. At heart I'm basically selfish. What I care about far more than anything else is whether strokes gained will help me become a better golfer. And one obvious use of the stroke skiing concept is to guide someone's on course strategy like whether to lay up or where to aim. What have you discovered in that domain?
- [37:25]
A
So the biggest area that amateurs lose strokes is not paying enough respect to hazards and out of bounds. So on a tee shot, let's say on a par four or five, where there is out of bounds to one side of the hole, there's typically a pretty safe route to the other side. And I found in my data that amateurs might hit somewhere between 10 and 30% of their shots out of bounds. And that's one of the biggest score killers for amateurs because out of bounds is a stroke and distance penalty. It's two shots. One swing cost you two strokes.
- [38:04]
B
So you probably don't know this, but I actually once carried out a massive golf experiment with the golfer Luke Donald, who was number one in the world at the time, and his coach and my friend and your friend Pat Goss from Northwestern. And the idea was to set up artificial situations on a golf course and then use the power of randomized experiments to learn about the best golf strategies. And so multiple times we've rented out entire golf courses and we invited hundreds of golfers to come out and be our research subjects and we put each of them through dozens of randomized on course experiments. So for instance, we put a golfer in the woods with a near impossible 150 yard approach shot through the trees to a green that had a creek in front of it and no sane person would attempt this shot because it was basically impossible. And then we would offer a clear path to chip back out to the fairway and play it safe. And then we would randomize our golfers into three groups. One group, we would just let them play the hole however they wanted. We drop their ball in the forest, and then they could either play it safe or go for the heroic shot. Or a second group, we would actually force them to play it safe. And then a third group, we would force them to try to hit this crazy shot through the trees and over the water. We had two hypotheses. The first one was that amateurs would try the crazy shot even when it didn't make sense. And that turned out to be completely true, that when we let people do whatever they want, they always try to do the crazy shot. And our second hypothesis was that doing the crazy shot would be very detrimental to your score. And it turned out that hypothesis was completely wrong. Because we really, I think, had the wrong mental model of golfers. So we had golfers of all levels. And what we were describing for strategy was the right strategy for Luke Donald to do, Because Luke Donald could execute the shot he wanted. But it turns out that golf is just really hard for the average golfer. When we would try to have someone play the safe shot, I don't know, about a third of the time when they tried to chip the ball out of the woods, they would fail to do it. They would hit a tree, they'd hit behind it. And then even when they made it to the fairway, they would inevitably hit the ball into the creek in front of the green. And then they'd usually duff it into the creek again. It was incredible. I think it took something like six strokes for our players to get their ball in the hole from 150 yards out. When they played it safe. And when they tried to take the heroic shot, they actually were about a half a shot better because their heroic efforts weren't very good. They never actually got on the green, but they managed to advance the ball much further on the first shot than in their layup attempt. And it was really shocking to me that no matter what setup we did, we basically couldn't find a lot of examples where strategy mattered. It was really discouraging. We were trying to write a book, the first half of which was going to be about encore strategy for regular golfers. And we basically couldn't write the book because we didn't have any insights.
- [41:01]
A
I'd say one of the morals to that story is that amateurs need to Practice recovery shots. They need to practice chipping the ball back into the fairway. And I have in my data shots labeled recovery shots. And I can see what happens. And many of the recovery shots, like you said, hit a tree, but some they'll chip the through the fairway because you're trying to chip it 50 yards through a wide opening because you're going the safe route, but you end up chipping it 80 yards through the fairway into the rough, or 100 yards into the trees on the other side of the fairway.
- [41:34]
B
So that's one possible conclusion. I actually took a very different conclusion as I watched these golfers play, and I saw how difficult golf was for them, I started to rethink what the point of golf is, because golf is very focused on score. And in the end, I just started thinking, who cares whether you shoot 93 or 95? It just doesn't matter. What matters in the end? As a golfer, my own experience is you sit around having a beer after the round, and you're like, oh, my God, you remember that shot I hit out of the woods and I threaded it through the trees, and it skipped two times over the creek onto the green to three feet. Oh, I'm going to remember that shot for the rest of my life. Or you even remember, oh, God, when I tried to hit it through the trees and it hit the first tree and hit the second tree, and then it ended up in that person's swimming pool. So it's different for pros, but for amateurs, we're trying to maximize or minimize the wrong thing, which is score, when really we should be just thinking about the best two shots we had. I actually think if golfers just completely forgot about score and focus instead on always trying to hit the craziest, most amazing heroic shot, that it would actually be a better game. What do you think of that?
- [42:51]
A
I agree 100%. We have a term, Barkies, for when you hit a tree and still make par on the course and double Barkey. If you hit two trees and two shots and still make par, which sort of gets to that point. Many of the players may not have been intending to minimize their average score, but trying to make a par or birdie, you say, okay, if I hit it out of bounds, it's like all the other bad holes I'm going to have this round, but if I make a par or birdie, then I'll remember it. I'll be able to, you know, talk about it over a beer on the 19th hole. If you're serious about Lowering your score, then you need a different objective function. You need average score as your objective. But I agree that many amateurs play for the hero shot because it's more fun if they pull it off.
- [43:37]
B
I think golf would be a whole lot more fun for the average golfer with one simple change to how we keep score. Rather than adding up strokes, I would comp scores differently. Golfers would get 15 points for an eagle that's 200 par in a hole, 8 points for a birdie, 3 points for a par, 1 point for a bogey, and 0 points for a double bogey or worse. Let me say that again just to be sure you caught the scoring system. 0 points for a double bogey or worse, 1 point for a bogey, 3 points for a par, 8 points for a birdie, and 15 points for an eagle. A higher score obviously is better. Now, why do I like this way of scoring? First, because it rewards taking chances. With traditional scoring, two pars count the same as a bogey and a birdie, or the same as a double bogey and an eagle. But in my scoring system, two pars are only worth six points, whereas a bogey and a birdie are worth nine points. And an eagle and a double bogey, well, they're worth 15 points. So with my scoring, it makes sense to take crazy chances with the hope of pulling off a miracle. And I suspect you'll find that's a fun way to play. Just as importantly though, this way of scoring focuses your attention on your best holes and lets you forget your bad ones. Let's say you play nine holes and you make eight triple bogeys and one miraculous, awe inspiring birdie. With traditional scoring, you're 23 over par and probably quite unhappy with my scoring. You have eight points that's pretty good. All from that wonderful birdie. The birdie sticks in your mind. All the disaster holes fade from memory, just as they should. Another good feature of this scoring system, when you're having a bad hole, you can just pick up and move to the next hole, speeding things up. One nice feature of MyDEA is that it doesn't require changing golf courses or equipment or anything else. You and your friends can make the change tomorrow and nobody can stop you. Try it, and if you do, let me know how you like it. People I mostly admire is part of
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A
the Freakonomics Radio Network and is produced by Freakonomics Radio. Morgan Levy is our producer and Dan Dazula is the engineer. All of the music you heard on the show was composed by Luis Guerra.
- [45:49]
B
We can be reached@pimaeeconomics.com that's P I M A reconomics.com. thanks for listening. I think you need a business coach.
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Maybe you can hire me and I'll take 50% of the revenues that you get.
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A
I'm sold. Let's go into business. The Freakonomics Radio Network.
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B
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C
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