Episode Overview

Podcast: Perpetual Traffic
Host: Ralph Burns (Tier 11)
Guest: John Moran
Episode: 3 Mind-Boggling Ways Triple Whale Is Screwing Your Business
Date: October 17, 2025

This episode delves into critical issues with third-party attribution platforms—specifically Triple Whale—and how they can misrepresent your marketing performance, sometimes missing up to a quarter of your actual revenue. Ralph and John use real client case studies to demonstrate these pitfalls, contrasting Triple Whale’s data loss with more accurate methods like direct back-end reporting (Shopify, Lifetimely) and modern attribution strategies (Tier 11 Data Suite, Meta's Andromeda model). The episode also covers game-changing advances in creative diversification recommended by Meta, and gives actionable advice for CMOs, media buyers, and business owners aiming to scale profitably, measure what actually matters, and outmaneuver misleading analytics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Triple Whale Problem: Massive Data Gaps in Attribution

• Triple Whale often misses 25-30% of actual revenue, sometimes more:
  • Blocked by ad blockers, ATT prompts, cookies, consent mode issues, etc.
  • “Triple Whale is probably the worst platform we've ever seen because they miss so much data and it's because it gets blocked.” (Ralph Burns, 04:16)
• Case Study:
  • A client using Triple Whale believed their campaigns underperformed—however, real sales (from Shopify/Lifetimely) showed 25% more revenue than Triple Whale reported.
  • “We saw a 24% increase in spend, and then lifetimely during that time period, saw a 25% increase in net sales. So this number is 275,000 triple. Whale thought it was 205 on the high side. So we missed about $70,000 this week.” (John Moran, 11:53)
• Key Quote:
  • “Your bank account will always win. Your back end will always win… Not looking at the source of truth means you’re not really looking at the right metrics in order to grow that business.” (Ralph Burns, 07:20)

2. Why Attribution Models Can Be Dangerous

• Changing the attribution model can wildly skew data:
  • “Somehow changing the attribution model changes the totals. I'm like, wait a minute, hold on, that doesn't make sense.” (John Moran, 15:12)
• Over/Under-reporting examples:
  • ROAS and customer value vary drastically by first/last click or model used in Triple Whale—and often don’t match actual totals.
  • “Pick your poison. Either one of them is really freaking far off.” (John Moran, 15:42)
• Conclusion:
  • Don’t make expensive marketing decisions based solely on third-party attribution models that don’t align with back-end reality.

3. What Actually Works: Using Source-of-Truth Data

• Direct reporting from Shopify/Lifetimely triumphs over third-party platforms:
  • “All we had to do is just stop confusing ourselves and stop paying for the confusion. It has been very beneficial.” (John Moran, 19:32)
• Blended CAC and MER:
  • Contribution margin, new customer acquisition cost (NCAC), and marketing efficiency ratio (MER) are the essential, un-fakeable success metrics.

4. Shifting to Meta’s Andromeda Model & Creative Diversification (The Real Growth Hack)

• Creative Iteration is Now the Game:
  • Meta’s 'Andromeda' playbook insists on regular, insight-driven creative iteration (5+ new concepts/month).
  • “When I say that media buying is technical, media buying has been snuffed and the creative media buying has been buffed, that's what we're talking about.” (John Moran, 37:10)
• Real-life application:
  • By following Andromeda and rapidly launching creative iterations (hooks, offers, angles), John dropped CPA from $44 to $25 in ten days.
  • “You could drop your CPA from 44 to 25 in 10 days by simply just making more ads that work.” (John Moran, 18:22)
• Case Example:
  • Vermont glove company: 130 ads, $23k spend gets $220k increase in top-line, all by iterating creatives according to audience signals.

5. Letting Meta’s Machine Learning, Not Your Instincts, Manage the Creative Mix

• Don’t micromanage ad spend allocation:
  • Meta’s smart creative rotation outpaces human intervention—resist the urge to pause high-spend creatives unless truly exhausted.
  • “Meta is in control. So if Meta says I'm going to do it, it works and you'll see a better result. The media buyer for some reason thinks that to hop in and like pause this one, it's like do not touch it.” (John Moran, 31:01)
• New Features:
  • ‘Creative fatigue meter’ in Meta helps identify when ads truly need to be rotated, rather than acting prematurely.

6. Strategic Channel Planning & The Dangers of Attribution Over-Optimization

• Example: Cutting Google ad spend by 95% when it proved redundant:
  • "Our total top line is up 0.7% by cutting out 60% of all of our ad spend. Why? This is when you're looking at the actual difference between attribution and contribution." (John Moran, 47:11)
• Channel synergy:
  • Scaling one platform influences others (e.g., scaling Meta makes YouTube look better due to “halo” effect).
• Avoiding Attribution as Gospel:
  • “When you look at attribution, if you just turn that into gospel, you're gonna have a bad time. If you're looking at attribution as gospel, AI could do that. So please don't try to put yourself in a position that can be replaced by AI also being wrong.” (John Moran, 50:15)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Triple Whale is probably the worst platform we've ever seen because they miss so much data and it's because it gets blocked.” (Ralph Burns, 04:16)
• “We saw a 24% increase in spend, and then lifetimely during that time period, saw a 25% increase in net sales. So this number is 275,000 triple. Whale thought it was 205 on the high side.” (John Moran, 11:53)
• “Your bank account will always win. Your back end will always win. Like that's actually where you're making your money. That's where people are buying your stuff.” (Ralph Burns, 07:20)
• “Pick your poison. Either one of them is really freaking far off.” (John Moran, 15:42)
• “All we had to do is just stop confusing ourselves and stop paying for the confusion.” (John Moran, 19:32)
• “When I say that media buying is technical, media buying has been snuffed and the creative media buying has been buffed, that's what we're talking about.” (John Moran, 37:10)
• “Meta is in control. So if Meta says I'm going to do it, it works and you'll see a better result. The media buyer for some reason thinks that to hop in and like pause this one, it's like do not touch it.” (John Moran, 31:01)
• “When you look at attribution, if you just turn that into gospel, you're gonna have a bad time.” (John Moran, 50:10)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Triple Whale’s Fatal Flaws & Data Loss: 04:16–12:53
• Changing Attribution Models (and why not to trust them): 14:14–16:48
• Case Study: Moving to Source-of-Truth Data: 17:05–21:32
• Creative Diversification (Andromeda) Strategy Reveal: 22:23–38:15
• How to Iterate Creatives, Drop CPA, Win Market: 25:19–38:15
• Meta’s Fatigue Meter & Why Not to Pause High-Spend Creatives: 44:22–46:34
• Cutting Wasted Ad Spend via Smart Attribution/Channel Use: 46:54–50:15

Actionable Takeaways

• Stop trusting third-party attribution platforms (like Triple Whale) as your “source of truth.” Instead, follow real back-end sales data from Shopify, Lifetimely, etc.
• Use MER, contribution margin, and NCAC as your bottom-line metrics.
• Adopt Meta's (Andromeda) creative diversification—test and iterate 5+ new insights-driven ideas monthly.
• Let Meta’s algorithm, not manual instincts, allocate creative spend and manage fatigue.
• Don’t chase attribution perfection—focus on directional accuracy and the business’s overall health.
• Remove channels and spend that don’t significantly drive new net revenue.
• Remember: what grows your bottom line is not more granular attribution, but better creative, more relevant messaging, and accurate measurement of bottom-line outcomes.

Resources Mentioned

• Tier 11 Data Suite
• Lifetimely for direct revenue and customer metrics
• Creative Diversification Playbook / Practitioner Guide from Meta (links in Tier 11 show notes)

The episode’s tone is direct, expert, and practical—Ralph and John are clear that marketing success in 2025 is about actionable data, ruthless creative testing, and getting out of attribution quicksand. If you want to improve your real marketing ROI, stop wasting money on bad attribution software, and finally scale with the strategies insiders are using, this episode is a must-hear (or, thanks to this summary, must-implement).