Podcast Summary: “Expecting An Attack Any Day Now” – Venezuela Boat Attacks With John Kiriakou & Ed Calderon

Podcast: Piers Morgan Uncensored
Host: Piers Morgan
Guests: Ed Calderon (Cartels Expert), John Kiriakou (Ex-CIA Officer & Whistleblower)
Original Release: December 22, 2025

Overview:

This episode dives into the escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions, the recent U.S. attacks on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, and the broader geopolitical chess game behind the scenes. Piers Morgan hosts insightful conversations with Ed Calderon (expert in cartel operations) and John Kiriakou (former CIA officer and whistleblower), dissecting whether the current narrative of “narco-terrorism” is camouflage for U.S.-led regime change, exploring the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, and reflecting on historic and present American interventions in Latin America.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Narco-Terrorism Designation and Drug Flows

• Venezuela’s Role in U.S. Drug Crisis:

  • The Trump administration claims that Venezuelan cartels, with Maduro's complicity, are shipping fentanyl and other drugs into the U.S. ([01:24]).
  • Ed Calderon disputes the centrality of Venezuela, noting:

    “A lot of that product is not coming from Venezuela... It’s coming from Mexico. It’s coming from China, specifically.” ([02:18])

    • Most fentanyl in the U.S. is manufactured using Chinese chemicals by Mexican cartels.

• Motivations Behind Narco-Terrorism Claims:

  • Both Calderon and Kiriakou argue this “broad sword” is more about justifying regime change than strictly stopping drugs ([02:18], [21:55]).

2. Regime Change: Oil, China, and Geopolitics

• Geopolitical Context:

  • Venezuela’s vast, sulfur-rich oil reserves attract American and Chinese interest.
  • John Kiriakou:

    “...the Chinese are building a refinery in the Caribbean... perhaps this is a way to keep the Chinese out of the Caribbean, to keep the Chinese out of Venezuela.” ([22:56])

• U.S. History of Intervention:

  • The U.S. has a long track record of regime change operations in Latin America, often with messy, long-term consequences ([21:55], [24:14]).

    “It’s easy to go into a country and overthrow its leadership. That’s the easy part. The difficult part is what to do next.” — John Kiriakou ([24:24])

• Double Standards:

  • Piers points out the contradiction between Trump’s tough talk—“anyone who brings drugs into the US will die”—and his pardoning of the Honduran president convicted on drug charges ([14:08]).

3. Humanitarian Crisis and Migration

• Venezuelan Exodus:
  • Calderon describes talking to Venezuelan refugees in Europe and Latin America, many of whom lost businesses or property to the Maduro regime ([03:43], [07:37]).
  • Not all migrants are criminals, despite popular stereotypes. Calderon:

    “...I’ve been speaking to some in Switzerland... people that came from wealthy families... were stripped of land, stripped of property, stripped of everything they know.” ([07:37])

  • The reality is mass migration, both legal and illegal, with many seeking safety and opportunity—contrary to blanket criminalization ([07:37]).

4. The Boat Attacks: Legality, Deterrence, and Collateral Damage

• Nature of Targeted Boats:

  • Calderon confirms majority are drug boats, but notes:

    “A lot of these people... are poor, marginalized people... There are kids... minors, maybe on some of these boats.” ([10:32])

  • He questions the proportionality of blowing up boats with noncombatants and potential civilian casualties.

• Deterrence Effect:

  • The attacks have instilled “fear... in the water” and reduced ocean trafficking, but have had little impact on drug availability or prices in the U.S. ([12:06]).

    “Drug prices and the availability... hasn’t really diminished or moved in any significant way.” ([12:06])

• Legality and Ethics:

  • Kiriakou:

    “I’m not seeing any even efforts at legality here. By all accounts, the intelligence is just simply not there.” ([33:48])

  • International law prohibits targeting survivors who are unable to fight; there are reports of civilian casualties ([33:48]).

5. CIA Playbook and Maduro’s Fate

• What Would the CIA Be Doing?

  • Kiriakou breaks down the typical “coup recipe” ([01:04], [28:05]):
    • Recruit/influence media
    • Arm opposition factions
    • Control capital city intersections and the presidential palace
    • Wait for dominoes to fall

• Will the U.S. Invade Venezuela?

  • Calderon and Kiriakou both predict the aim is to pressure Maduro into exile, rather than launch a ground invasion ([17:25], [31:08]).
    • Calderon:

    “I’m expecting a plane flying out of Venezuela, landing in Russia anytime, Syria-style, any day now.” ([17:25])

• Maduro’s Legitimacy:

  • Kiriakou believes Maduro “has serious legitimacy problems” and has likely prepared his escape plan ([30:14], [31:08]).

6. Historical Lessons: Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria

• Occupation vs. Regime Change:

  • It’s “easier to overthrow than govern”; U.S. tends to fail at “nation building” ([24:24]).
  • A hands-off, organic approach to regime change (as in Syria) is less messy ([26:48]).

• Notable Anecdote:

  • John Kiriakou recounts a pre-Iraq War meeting:

    “Director Tenet turned off his microphone and said, ‘Did he say Tehran or did he say Baghdad?’... ‘Are these people insane?’ Well, the answer is yes.” ([24:24])

7. Fog of War and the Ethics of Intervention

• Fog of War Defense:
  • When an official claims “it’s the fog of war” and defends attacks that kill possible noncombatants, Kiriakou rebuts:

    “There is no war. This was just a unilateral American decision to start bombing these boats. So, fog of war? No.” ([35:38])
    "If there are survivors who are not able to engage in combat, you can't kill them. It's really quite simple." ([35:58])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Ed Calderon on Exile and Pressure:

  “I’m expecting a plane flying out of Venezuela, landing in Russia... Syria-style, any day now.” ([17:25])

• John Kiriakou on U.S. Naiveté:

  “It’s easy to go into a country and overthrow its leadership. That’s the easy part. The difficult part is what to do next.” ([24:24])
  “Oftentimes they are insane... They think so highly of themselves and their own ability...to institute forced change and then to live happily ever after.” ([24:24])

• On Collateral Damage:

  “Seeing them get blown up in the middle of the ocean and then survivors getting blown up again is going to be something that’s gonna hit you in a certain way.” – Ed Calderon ([10:32])

• Kiriakou on the Legality of Boat Strikes:

  “By all accounts, the intelligence is just simply not there to show that these are drug boats or...that the drugs are bound for the United States.” ([33:48])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:04] – CIA’s playbook for coups
• [02:18–03:03] – Maduro’s alleged narco-terror ties
• [03:43–07:37] – Refugee crisis and humanitarian fallout
• [10:32–12:06] – Nature and effectiveness of US boat attacks
• [14:08–15:13] – Trump’s messaging and double standards
• [17:16–17:25] – Possibility of US invasion or negotiated exile
• [21:55–23:52] – Kiriakou on US regime change motives
• [24:14–24:24] – US failures in “nation building” post-invasion
• [26:48] – Lessons from Syria on organic regime change
• [28:05–29:12] – CIA operations in Venezuela right now
• [33:48–35:58] – Ethics and legality of boat attacks
• [35:38–35:58] – Kiriakou refutes the “fog of war” defense

Tone and Language:

• Direct, unflinching, and often skeptical—true to Piers Morgan’s probing style.
• Candid expertise from Ed Calderon (firsthand accounts, operational details) and John Kiriakou (historical perspective, intelligence insight).
• Humanitarian concern is threaded throughout, especially about civilian casualties and the migrant crisis.

Conclusion

In this episode, the conventional narrative of a U.S. “narco-war” against Venezuela is methodically deconstructed. The guests agree that official justifications are a smokescreen for a more complex play involving oil, Chinese influence, and American interventionism. Both warn of potential quagmires—militarily, politically, and ethically—while calling attention to the plight of ordinary Venezuelans caught in the crossfire. The show leaves listeners with sharp questions about legality, effectiveness, and morality in America’s approach, and what history warns could come next.