‘Expecting An Attack Any Day Now” Venezuela Boat Attacks With John Kiriakou & Ed Calderon

Summary

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Podcast Summary: “Expecting An Attack Any Day Now” – Venezuela Boat Attacks With John Kiriakou & Ed Calderon

Podcast: Piers Morgan Uncensored
Host: Piers Morgan
Guests: Ed Calderon (Cartels Expert), John Kiriakou (Ex-CIA Officer & Whistleblower)
Original Release: December 22, 2025

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Overview:

This episode dives into the escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions, the recent U.S. attacks on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, and the broader geopolitical chess game behind the scenes. Piers Morgan hosts insightful conversations with Ed Calderon (expert in cartel operations) and John Kiriakou (former CIA officer and whistleblower), dissecting whether the current narrative of “narco-terrorism” is camouflage for U.S.-led regime change, exploring the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, and reflecting on historic and present American interventions in Latin America.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Narco-Terrorism Designation and Drug Flows

• Venezuela’s Role in U.S. Drug Crisis:

  • The Trump administration claims that Venezuelan cartels, with Maduro's complicity, are shipping fentanyl and other drugs into the U.S. ([01:24]).
  • Ed Calderon disputes the centrality of Venezuela, noting:

    “A lot of that product is not coming from Venezuela... It’s coming from Mexico. It’s coming from China, specifically.” ([02:18])

    • Most fentanyl in the U.S. is manufactured using Chinese chemicals by Mexican cartels.

• Motivations Behind Narco-Terrorism Claims:

  • Both Calderon and Kiriakou argue this “broad sword” is more about justifying regime change than strictly stopping drugs ([02:18], [21:55]).

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2. Regime Change: Oil, China, and Geopolitics

• Geopolitical Context:

  • Venezuela’s vast, sulfur-rich oil reserves attract American and Chinese interest.
  • John Kiriakou:

    “...the Chinese are building a refinery in the Caribbean... perhaps this is a way to keep the Chinese out of the Caribbean, to keep the Chinese out of Venezuela.” ([22:56])

• U.S. History of Intervention:

  • The U.S. has a long track record of regime change operations in Latin America, often with messy, long-term consequences ([21:55], [24:14]).

    “It’s easy to go into a country and overthrow its leadership. That’s the easy part. The difficult part is what to do next.” — John Kiriakou ([24:24])

• Double Standards:

  • Piers points out the contradiction between Trump’s tough talk—“anyone who brings drugs into the US will die”—and his pardoning of the Honduran president convicted on drug charges ([14:08]).

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3. Humanitarian Crisis and Migration

• Venezuelan Exodus:
  • Calderon describes talking to Venezuelan refugees in Europe and Latin America, many of whom lost businesses or property to the Maduro regime ([03:43], [07:37]).
  • Not all migrants are criminals, despite popular stereotypes. Calderon:

    “...I’ve been speaking to some in Switzerland... people that came from wealthy families... were stripped of land, stripped of property, stripped of everything they know.” ([07:37])

  • The reality is mass migration, both legal and illegal, with many seeking safety and opportunity—contrary to blanket criminalization ([07:37]).

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4. The Boat Attacks: Legality, Deterrence, and Collateral Damage

• Nature of Targeted Boats:

  • Calderon confirms majority are drug boats, but notes:

    “A lot of these people... are poor, marginalized people... There are kids... minors, maybe on some of these boats.” ([10:32])

  • He questions the proportionality of blowing up boats with noncombatants and potential civilian casualties.

• Deterrence Effect:

  • The attacks have instilled “fear... in the water” and reduced ocean trafficking, but have had little impact on drug availability or prices in the U.S. ([12:06]).

    “Drug prices and the availability... hasn’t really diminished or moved in any significant way.” ([12:06])

• Legality and Ethics:

  • Kiriakou:

    “I’m not seeing any even efforts at legality here. By all accounts, the intelligence is just simply not there.” ([33:48])

  • International law prohibits targeting survivors who are unable to fight; there are reports of civilian casualties ([33:48]).

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5. CIA Playbook and Maduro’s Fate

• What Would the CIA Be Doing?

  • Kiriakou breaks down the typical “coup recipe” ([01:04], [28:05]):
    • Recruit/influence media
    • Arm opposition factions
    • Control capital city intersections and the presidential palace
    • Wait for dominoes to fall

• Will the U.S. Invade Venezuela?

  • Calderon and Kiriakou both predict the aim is to pressure Maduro into exile, rather than launch a ground invasion ([17:25], [31:08]).
    • Calderon:

    “I’m expecting a plane flying out of Venezuela, landing in Russia anytime, Syria-style, any day now.” ([17:25])

• Maduro’s Legitimacy:

  • Kiriakou believes Maduro “has serious legitimacy problems” and has likely prepared his escape plan ([30:14], [31:08]).

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6. Historical Lessons: Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria

• Occupation vs. Regime Change:

  • It’s “easier to overthrow than govern”; U.S. tends to fail at “nation building” ([24:24]).
  • A hands-off, organic approach to regime change (as in Syria) is less messy ([26:48]).

• Notable Anecdote:

  • John Kiriakou recounts a pre-Iraq War meeting:

    “Director Tenet turned off his microphone and said, ‘Did he say Tehran or did he say Baghdad?’... ‘Are these people insane?’ Well, the answer is yes.” ([24:24])

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7. Fog of War and the Ethics of Intervention

• Fog of War Defense:
  • When an official claims “it’s the fog of war” and defends attacks that kill possible noncombatants, Kiriakou rebuts:

    “There is no war. This was just a unilateral American decision to start bombing these boats. So, fog of war? No.” ([35:38])
    "If there are survivors who are not able to engage in combat, you can't kill them. It's really quite simple." ([35:58])

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Ed Calderon on Exile and Pressure:

  “I’m expecting a plane flying out of Venezuela, landing in Russia... Syria-style, any day now.” ([17:25])

• John Kiriakou on U.S. Naiveté:

  “It’s easy to go into a country and overthrow its leadership. That’s the easy part. The difficult part is what to do next.” ([24:24])
  “Oftentimes they are insane... They think so highly of themselves and their own ability...to institute forced change and then to live happily ever after.” ([24:24])

• On Collateral Damage:

  “Seeing them get blown up in the middle of the ocean and then survivors getting blown up again is going to be something that’s gonna hit you in a certain way.” – Ed Calderon ([10:32])

• Kiriakou on the Legality of Boat Strikes:

  “By all accounts, the intelligence is just simply not there to show that these are drug boats or...that the drugs are bound for the United States.” ([33:48])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:04] – CIA’s playbook for coups
• [02:18–03:03] – Maduro’s alleged narco-terror ties
• [03:43–07:37] – Refugee crisis and humanitarian fallout
• [10:32–12:06] – Nature and effectiveness of US boat attacks
• [14:08–15:13] – Trump’s messaging and double standards
• [17:16–17:25] – Possibility of US invasion or negotiated exile
• [21:55–23:52] – Kiriakou on US regime change motives
• [24:14–24:24] – US failures in “nation building” post-invasion
• [26:48] – Lessons from Syria on organic regime change
• [28:05–29:12] – CIA operations in Venezuela right now
• [33:48–35:58] – Ethics and legality of boat attacks
• [35:38–35:58] – Kiriakou refutes the “fog of war” defense

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Tone and Language:

• Direct, unflinching, and often skeptical—true to Piers Morgan’s probing style.
• Candid expertise from Ed Calderon (firsthand accounts, operational details) and John Kiriakou (historical perspective, intelligence insight).
• Humanitarian concern is threaded throughout, especially about civilian casualties and the migrant crisis.

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Conclusion

In this episode, the conventional narrative of a U.S. “narco-war” against Venezuela is methodically deconstructed. The guests agree that official justifications are a smokescreen for a more complex play involving oil, Chinese influence, and American interventionism. Both warn of potential quagmires—militarily, politically, and ethically—while calling attention to the plight of ordinary Venezuelans caught in the crossfire. The show leaves listeners with sharp questions about legality, effectiveness, and morality in America’s approach, and what history warns could come next.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

You said fentanyl at the beginning and you are right. A lot of that product is not coming from Venezuela. Venezuela. It's coming from Mexico. It's coming from China specifically. It's a very broad sword, this narco terrorism designation. I think that is being used to conduct some regime change.

[C]

Right? So that's the key point here.

[B]

I think there's something happening here and this is just one part of the chessboard.

[D]

Perhaps this is a way to keep the Chinese out of the Caribbean, to keep the Chinese out of Venezuela. You can say you're doing it in order to stop the flow of drugs, even if that's not really the case.

[C]

What will the CIA be doing right now in Venezuela to affect a coup?

[D]

If you want it to be quick, everything that's important is going to take place in the capital. You have to control the radio and television stations, you have to surround the presidential palace, and you have to control the major intersections in the city. Once that happens, all the other dominoes begin to fall.

[C]

The White House is very clear about why it's ramping up pressure on Venezuela drugs. Venezuelan cartel hotels are shipping fentanyl into the United States. They say with the full complicity of President Maduro. The socialist leader is thereby contributing to a crisis which has killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, justifying a state of war readiness and a series of deadly airstrikes on small Venezuelan boats. But not everybody's convinced. A majority of all fentanyl in the US Is made using Chinese chemicals by cartels in Mexico, from where almost all of it is imported. Well, Ed Calderon is a combat instructor, security consultant and a cartels expert and he joins me now. Ed, thank you very much indeed for joining me.

[B]

Thank you.

[C]

What do you make of this? I mean, Donald Trump is accusing Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, of conducting a narco war, of running a narco terrorist cartel. You're a cartel expert, is he right?

[B]

The connections between his family and the movement of cocaine into the United States has long since been known. 2015 saw two of his nephews basically arrested for some of these, these issues. The military in Venezuela has been engaging in these activities for years now. It is something that is happening. Cocaine, though, you said fentanyl at the beginning and you are right, a lot of that product is not coming from Venezuela. It's coming from Mexico. It's coming from overseas. China specifically. It's a very broad sword, this narco terrorism designation, I think, that is being used in this case to conduct some regime change.

[C]

Right. So that's the key point here, is that many people think it's a cover for regime change aspirations by the US Government under Donald Trump. And many people speculate because Venezuela has a lot of oil and that you have a socialist leader who they think is there by default. The last election he should have left, but he's refused to go, and so on. And there's also a kind of like an anomaly here where if you were choosing one of the countries in that region as a place to target for import, say of cocaine or illegal drugs generally, then you would probably choose Colombia, not Venezuela. So why Venezuela?

[B]

10% of cocaine. These are government, US government numbers. Back from 2009, 10% of cocaine coming into the United States was coming from Venezuela. The numbers are now completely impossible to know because of some of the things that are happening on the seaside. The military has long since been known for their association with certain cartels, specifically the Sinaloa cartel when it was existing back in the day. Chapo Guzman was arrested speaking to members of the military, trying to figure out how to get a close connection. Yes, Colombia should be on that list as well. And I think it might be on that list. I think many countries in South America and North America, that being Mexico, are probably on a list. They were attempting to do something in Venezuela that they might want to replicate other parts of the. In other parts of the continent. I think. It's hard to blame the United States as far as how it views the situation in Venezuela. I mean, I'm currently in Sweden and I've spoken with some people who are refugees of Venezuela here and they've explained to me how the current government has basically stolen their lands, put in people that they know and family members that they know in positions of power in that region and basically took everything for themselves. They're looking for enemy single way, every single way of making money in that region. And the military is very much involved in some of these activities. So it's a real thing now, how big of a threat is versus other parts of the continent and prioritize, prioritize. That's where I, I know people are questioning resources, specifically in that region. But the Venezuelan government itself has single handedly destroyed most of its ability to process a lot of the fuel that it extracts from the ground. So here we are.

[C]

Right, so you've got a sort of chaotic regime, probably illegitimate now and acting with impunity. And that may be a collection of explanations for why the US Is considering regime change. Of course, Donald Trump has always been very anti regime change and spoken out against regime change and thinking America should be America first and shouldn't be interview intervening in foreign countries. So what do you think is going on here with his change of mind if that's what happens?

[B]

I mean, Venezuela has very clear ties to the United States, enemies abroad, I mean, Russia and China, I mean, and we have to mention that they are nowhere to be seen realistically as far as coming to their aid. I think there is something global happening here. And this is just one part of the chessboard that the United States is playing.

[C]

This.

[B]

It's unsustainable, whatever is going on there as far as the governance and just, I mean, I get to speak to a lot of refugees and people. I do a lot of charity work and to speak specifically to the immigrant, the situation, there is something happening there that is driving humanity away from that country. That is undeniable. Now, is that a just cause to blow up a drug boat in the ocean without really knowing exactly what's going on there? And the people that are on those boats, this is beyond my wheelhouse, but people there are expecting an attack any day now. And people that are not there who are living abroad are jubilant with the possibility that the regime is going away. And it's hard to ignore those voices as well.

[C]

There has been a mass exodus of people from Venezuela, hasn't there?

[B]

Yes, we saw the migrant caravans being conformed by many Venezuelans going through Mexico. Some of these encampments, we're full of them. We, we have, we have this narrative in some, in some places where some of these, where all of these migrants are criminal, which is not the case. Again, I've been speaking to some in Switzerland who are, you know, highly educated people, people that come from, that came from wealthy families that were pretty much set in Venezuela, that were stripped of land, stripped of property, stripped of everything they know they, they owned. And to the wedding. Instagram Teen accounts default teens into automatic protections for who can contact them and the content they can see. Explore Teen Accounts and all of our ongoing work to protect teens [e-mail] teenaccounts this broad stroke that Sometimes gets labeled on some of these migrants as all being criminal, as all being part of these international transnational gangs is false. But yes, the mass, the mass humanity has been moving out of the country and crossing the border specifically in the time of the Biden administration where that border was basically wide open. A lot of those were Venezuelan. A lot of, A lot of the, A lot of the, There's a lot, there's. The thing gets told a lot by the president right now in the United States about prisons being emptied. That was actually, that actually did happen and prisons were emptied and Mexico specifically right now, and I have friends who are working at a federal level right now, there are dealing with trend threats in Mexico City, for example, where they're setting up, they're clearing out cartels, their local Mexican cartels with their ongoing efforts against the cartels in Mexico. And now you're seeing tender agua people basically setting up shop in Mexico. So yes, it is, it is a, it is a real threat that is happening not only in, not only throughout Latin America, but in Mexico and yes, the United States as well. Speaking to some of my counterparts who are active there that seen this threat and it is a real one, but it's not all of them. Again, this broad stroke that, this broad brush that gets painted against all of them as criminals or as some sort of undesirable people is. It's just not the case.

[C]

What is the general view amongst the Venezuelans you've talked to about the likelihood that these boats that are being targeted are being gang operated, they are criminals and they are trying to bring in large amounts of drugs into the United States and therefore are legitimate targets?

[B]

It's probably, I mean, this is a transport job. These drug boats are drug boats. There's no denying that they are moving quantities of drugs through the ocean now. Are they going to make it all the way to Florida with the fuel they have on those boats? Probably not. They're transporting from one point to another. Most of the trafficking has moved to the ground. That's where the real threat as far as drug trafficking happens. Most of it is now moving through the ground. You have on the Pacific side, the Navy, the US Navy and on the Caribbean side, it's, it's full of, it's full of government chips. The sentiment is mixed. You have to realize that a lot of these people that are probably on those boats are poor, marginalized people. I don't think they, probably any, I don't think there are any sort of military officials on those boats. There are kids, they're they're minors, maybe on some of these boats. And, you know, if you're a human being and you have any sort of sentiment towards, towards humanity, seeing, seeing them get blown up in the middle of the ocean and then survivors getting blown up again is going to be something that's gonna hit you in a certain way.

[C]

Will it act, though, Ed, as a deterrent? Which is obviously what the Trump administration is saying, is that they believe if they keep doing this, the number of boats bringing these drugs over, which, as you say, you're certain they are drug boats, that if they wanna stop the drugs coming, this will be a very effective deterrent.

[B]

It is a very effective deterrent. Fear is there. I have to say, it is a very effective deterrent. The trafficking side of things on both sides of the ocean. We don't hear a lot about some of the boats that have been taken out on the coast of Mexico, but there have been a few as well. And speaking to people that are in law enforcement still currently active on both sides of the border, both in Mexico and the United States, they have seen some sort of stoppage, as least as of traffic on the, on the ocean. So it is working on that end. But we also have to realize that drug prices and the availability of some of these substances hasn't really diminished or moved in any significant way. So, yes, there is an effect on the ocean and the way things are being trafficked and fear is on there. Fears on. Fear is in the water, basically. But the effects of these policies haven't been felt in the cities and on the streets in the United States. So I think that's where at least people on my end of things who are analyzing this closely haven't really seen that needle move. So then is this working? Would be the question.

[D]

Right?

[C]

Because these drug gangs, they're very sophisticated, they're very well resourced, and presumably if they lose a particular way of transporting their drugs, they'll find another way.

[B]

That's it? Yeah, that's it, Pierce. Colombia is another source. Mexico is another source. So there's a lot of sources right now. This very broadsword that is this terrorist designation is being utilized in Venezuela for many reasons. And I think, I think we all know that there are many more reasons beyond that of this being a specific counter.

[C]

I mean, also there's a kind of operation, there's a kind of obvious double standard that's just emerged this week where you've got President Trump at a Cabinet meeting yesterday saying anyone who brings drugs into the US will die. Let's watch the clip.

[D]

Mr. President, if you are declaring war against these cartels and Congress is likely.

[C]

To approve of that process, why not just ask for a declaration of war? Well, I don't think we're going to.

[B]

Necessarily ask for a declaration of war.

[C]

I think we're just going to kill people that are bringing drugs into our country. Okay, we're going to kill them. You know, they're going to be like, dead. Okay, now that's strong words. But then he has literally just pardoned and released the former president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, who in 2024, just last year was found guilty of conspiring to import cocaine to the United States and sentenced to 45 years in prison. There'll be many people looking at that going, hang on, how does that work?

[B]

From what I can tell and from what I've seen as far as that release, he's basically saying that it was a political motivated arrest and that he was framed for those crimes by the past administration. The veracity of that is. It's beyond me if that is a true statement or not. His threats of death, his threats of killing people that are going to cross drugs into the United States is something that I have to tell you, Pierce. It resonates a lot with people that have been the victims of these substances and in these criminal organizations. On many parts, in many parts of the continent, myself included, these criminal organizations have taken over vast amounts of territory, become governors and government in some of the places they control. And the effects of this. I mean, I grew up on the streets of Tijuana and I went from there to going to places like Portland and seeing some of the effects of some of these substances and how it consumes people. Not even that. I mean, I have friends who had kids, 17, 16, who just took some drugs at a party and didn't wake up. I understand some of the anger and some of the feelings around some of these substances and some of the people that voted and got the president to the White House and why this is such a motivating topic for the populace now, this designation and how it's being utilized and the scope of it, I think is what people are now kind of backing up a bit and trying to see if it's actually feasible or not to be utilizing this designation to continue on with these efforts. I have a feeling that this is going to continue on, and I think whatever happens in Venezuela is going to be a template for further actions in other parts of the continent.

[C]

Do you think it is more likely than not that the US will invade Venezuela.

[B]

I think the pressure right now is to make Maduro reach a deal and extract himself from Venezuela. I'm expecting a plane flying out of Venezuela, landing in Russia anytime, Syria style, any day now. Hopefully that is the where we're headed. Speaking to people that know more about military inventions than I do, Venezuela is a very, it's going to be a very difficult thing to, to hold and to, and to control if the regime falls and turns into a guerrilla force. We must, we must understand that Venezuela, the Venezuelan military is one thing, but also there's a bunch of guerrilla forces in, in and around Venezuela that are aligned with the regime that will basically take our pick up arms against whoever stays in power. And we're going to look at it, we're going to be looking at another Afghanistan or another Iraq as far as not the battle not being concluded when the invasion concludes, but when the death toll rises from trying to hold that space. And that's not even taken into account the, the mass amount of humanity that is already struggling with things like potable water or food in some of these regions by the regime's complete mishandling of everything when it comes to governments. So now add on to that the war aspect and I think we're in for some pretty horrible humanitarian crisis. Hopefully Maduro and his family jump on a plane with a bunch of gold bricks like a lot of people that have Falcon his suit and fly to Russia or China, whoever takes him.

[C]

Yeah, let's hope that he sees sense. It could get very messy. Ed Caldwell, thank you very much indeed for joining me. I appreciate it.

[B]

Thank you so much.

[C]

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[D]

Thank you so much for having me. It's always a pleasure.

[C]

So what's going on here? Is the US Using the obviously genuine threat of drug cartels bringing drugs into the United States via these boats as an excuse for regime change? And if so, why?

[D]

I think probably yes, which I think also is unfortunate because there are legitimate reasons to put pressure on the likes of Nicolas Maduro, but you don't have to threaten invasion to do that. I think that what we're seeing here is a multifaceted program. First of all, the US Has a very, very long history, of course, going back to the Monroe Doctrine in. In Latin America, much of that history has been very ugly. We could sit here and talk for hours about the United Fruit Company, for example, and the overthrow of a democratically elected government in. In Guatemala. We could talk about military dictatorships in. In South America as recently as the 1980s. But. But this is. This is unusual because we've never used drugs as. As a reason to. To institute regime change. Let's. Let's put it that way. I think that's only a part of it, though, Pierce. I think that there's a bigger picture issue at play here, and that is China's influence in Latin America. Look at it this way. The Venezuelans are sitting on an Ocean of oil. That oil happens to be very dirty. It's very, very high in sulfur. And for many decades, the only place where that oil could be refined properly was at refineries in southern Texas. Well, now the Chinese are building a refinery in the Caribbean. And the Chinese will be willing and able to refine high sulfur Venezuelan oil. Perhaps this is a way to keep the Chinese out of the Caribbean, to keep the Chinese out of Venezuela. Certainly having a regime change operation successful in Venezuela would make the Colombian military very happy. And then at the same time, you can say you're doing it in order to stop the flow of drugs. Even if that's not really the case.

[C]

The history of regime change involving the United States is pretty messy. Is there any guarantee that if the U.S. committee troops on the ground to actually invade Venezuela, it wouldn't end up like Iraq, for example? I mean, Venezuela has even more oil than Iraq. Could it turn into another Iraq if the US Is not careful?

[D]

Oh, I think the answer is yes. You've hit on something very important here. This is something that the United States has traditionally been very bad at.

[C]

Right.

[D]

It's easy to go into a country and overthrow its leadership. That's the easy part. The difficult part is what to do next. Regime change is one thing. Regime or nation building, rather. Nation building is an entirely different thing. You know, I sat in a. I sat in a meeting. I think you'll get a kick out of this. I sat in a meeting the night before the US Invasion of Iraq. The meeting was chaired by Vice President Cheney. I was the note taker for CIA Director George Tenet. And it was the Vice President, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the CIA director, all the big principles. And one of the briefers was the Director of centcom, the Central Command. And he said almost offhandedly that things will go well tomorrow when we cross the border into Iraq, the Iraqis will throw flowers at us. And he said, if things go as planned, we can be in Tehran by August. And Director Tenet turned off his microphone and he turned to me and he said, did he say Tehran or did he say Baghdad? I said. He said Tehran. And George says, are these people insane? Well, the answer is yes. Oftentimes they are insane. At least they think so highly of themselves and their own ability or the Pentagon's ability to institute forced change and then to live happily ever after. You would think that they would learn their lesson. When we fail time after time after time.

[C]

Isn't there a clear lesson from what's happened in Syria. Right. Where if it's organic and it comes from within and it's Syrian, driven by Syrian people who want to affect their own regime change. Actually it can be far quicker, far more effective and far less messy. Look, we have to wait and see what happens in Syria, but certainly so far it would be hard to argue that the new regime is worse than the Assad regime and America didn't have to do very much. Right. And in fact, Putin backed it.

[D]

Exactly right.

[C]

So it just seems to me there's an obvious template there for organic regime change always being a better option than enforced regime change, particularly from the US who are often getting themselves corralled into really messy situation for long periods of time.

[D]

Oh, I think you've hit the nail on the head. And Syria ought to be the template for how we move forward on these. Listen, there's no problem from a policy perspective to supply aid, for example, whether it's economic aid or military aid to the Kurds or to free Syrian fighters. Oddly enough, we had the CIA most recently in Syria. We had the CIA supplying Al Qaeda and the Pentagon supplying a completely different group that was at war with Al Qaeda. So we almost came out on top in spite of ourselves there. But I think you're right. I think Syria is something that should be studied in the halls of international intelligence services and implemented with more of a hands off approach. Going into a country and just occupying it and thinking that you're going to succeed just because we're the good guys is not a workable plan.

[C]

What will the CIA be doing right now in Venezuela? We know they're there. It's no great surprise. But given all the backdrop of a potential invasion. Or maybe it's a double bluff by Trump and he's just trying to get Maduro to leave the country, which could well be what he's trying to do. But what would the CIA be doing?

[D]

Yeah, that's a good observation too. This could be a bluff. But let's assume for the sake of this question that it's not a bluff. The CIA would be doing everything from trying to, to recruit or to influence the owners of the Venezuelan media to place anti Maduro articles or opinion pieces or pro American articles or opinion pieces to arming factions that may be available to them in Caracas. Listen, to effect a coup, if you want it to be quick, and it's a place like Venezuela where everything that's important is going to take place in the capital. You have to control the radio and television stations, you have to surround the presidential palace, and you have to control the major intersections in the city. Once that happens, all the other dominoes begin to fall. So it would be like overthrowing the Greek government in 1967. You don't have to attack and invade and occupy the entire country. You just need the center of the city along with the presidential palace and the parliament. I think that's the plan.

[C]

But as we saw, interestingly, as we saw in Ukraine, for example, clearly the Russians thought they could steam into Kyiv, overthrow Zelensky, and this would all be over quite quickly. And here we are years later, and it didn't happen. Often, the best laid plans look straightforward on paper. You make assumptions, but cold, hard reality can kick in and take you to places you never imagined.

[D]

That's right. Look at Afghanistan. After years and years, Hamid Karzai was really little more than the mayor of Kabul. And even then, he didn't control all of Kabul. 20 years of American occupation, more than a trillion dollars spent, and still we're facing enemies as soon as we leave the city limits. It's not a way to run a war.

[C]

Maduro, many people think he's there illegitimately now, that following the last election, he lost it and he's just refused to go. What is the reality about that?

[D]

You know, I consider myself to be a person who approaches these issues from the, you know, slightly left of center. But I've never believed that Maduro was legitimate. I've always believed that he was pumping up these numbers, stealing these elections. Not to say that the right is the savior of the country. We don't, frankly, know what the Venezuelan right is going to look like once it begins to run things. But I've always believed that Maduro had serious legitimacy problems.

[C]

What's your hunch about what he may do? We've seen enough of him now for a few years to get a kind of measure of the man. Is he the kind you think who, when confronted with the possibility of an invasion and perhaps his death, that he will just pull an Assad and get on a plane?

[D]

I think that's the likelihood. Now, the CIA, just three or four weeks ago, according to Maduro's private pilot, the CIA tried to recruit the pilot with the idea that were Maduro to run, he would get on the plane, say, take me to Havana. Instead, the pilot takes him to Key west and the FBI is there to arrest him and charge him with international narcotics trafficking. So I think that Maduro probably has laid plans to leave if he needs to leave quickly. If he does need to leave quickly, I think he'll probably end up in Havana, possibly in Moscow. But, yeah, I think that's probably. That's probably the way it would play out now. I think that we would get a very. I think we would get a better idea of what the plans are if we were to watch those military leaders closest to him. If we begin to see fissures among the military leadership in Venezuela, then it won't be long for Maduro after that.

[C]

How easy would it be for the CIA to arrange his death?

[D]

You know, I think that's a lot harder than most people would expect. It's not the 60s or the early 70s anymore where the CIA is a completely renegade organization and it just goes around overthrowing governments and assassinating world leaders. Now there actually is at least some congressional oversight. There's a bureaucratic process by which they would have to go through. And it's quite difficult because it's not just the CIA coming up with an idea and then going to the President to approve the idea. There are layers and layers of attorneys in the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel, in the National Security Council's Office of Legal affairs, in the CIA's General Counsel's office. And so you have this army, this army of attorneys that has to approve it before it even gets to the President for his signature. It would be easier, it would be more legal, to put so much pressure on Maduro that he opts to just get up and run than it would be to try to kill him. And just in the last year or so, Pierce, there have been, what, a dozen, a dozen and a half mercenaries that have sort of washed up on shore and have said, hey, we're here to overthrow Maduro, only to be then arrested and traded back to the United States for Venezuelan prisoners. It's kind of silly.

[C]

Finally, these strikes on the boats in the Caribbean Sea, in your estimation, are these legal and justified or not?

[D]

No, I'm not seeing any even efforts at legality here. By all accounts, the intelligence is just simply not there to show that these are drug boats or if they are drug boats, that the drugs are bound for the United States. There was a foot in a boot that washed up on shore in Trinidad and Tobago last week, and it was identified as the foot and boot of a Trinidadian fisherman. And now the family wants answers. So, you know, I was in the CIA long enough that I came to learn when a CIA officer or a White House official or a Pentagon general says, take my word for it, I've seen the intelligence don't take his word for it.

[C]

I want to play this before we finish, a clip from Pete hegseth. He's the secretary of state, obviously, for the war department as it's now renamed. Let's take a look.

[E]

You didn't see any survivors?

[D]

To be clear, after that first shot.

[E]

I did not personally see survivors, but I stand because the thing was on fire. It was exploded in fire smoke. You can't see anything.

[C]

You got digital.

[E]

This is called the fog of war. This is what you and the press don't understand. You sit in your air conditioned offices or up on capitol hill and you nitpick and you plant fake stories in the washington post about kill everybody phrases on anonymous sources not based in anything, not based in any truth at all. And then you want to throw up really irresponsible terms about american heroes, about the judgment that they made. I wrote a whole book on this. This topic because of what politicians and the press does to war fighters.

[C]

The fog of war. I mean, look, there is a fog of war. Of course there is. But did you find that convincing?

[D]

No. There is no war. This was just a unilateral american decision to start bombing these boats. So fog of war. No. And international law is actually very clear here. If there are survivors who are not able to engage in combat, you can't kill them. It's really quite simple.

[C]

Yeah, I agree. John kiriakou, thank you very much indeed for rejoining me on uncensored.

[D]

Thank you. Good to see you again.

[C]

Thank you. Piers Morgan uncensored is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me. If you enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing. Hit subscribe on YouTube and follow piers Morgan uncensored on Spotify and apple podcast us. And in return, we will continue our mission to inform, irritate and entertain, and we'll do it all for free. Independent, uncensored media has never been more critical and we couldn't do it without you.