"Heading For Global DEPRESSION!" Professor Jiang Debates Iran War, Trump And China Ties

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Heading For Global DEPRESSION!" Professor Jiang Debates Iran War, Trump And China Ties

Podcast: Piers Morgan Uncensored
Date: May 5, 2026
Host: Piers Morgan
Guests:

• Steve Keen (Economist)
• Stephen Moore (Former Trump Adviser, Economist)
• Professor Zhang (Game theorist, China specialist)

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Overview

This high-stakes episode of Piers Morgan Uncensored confronts the specter of global economic collapse amid mounting geopolitical crises. The roundtable – featuring economists Steve Keen and Stephen Moore, and Professor Zhang – debates the looming depression, the fallout from the US-Iran conflict, the role of Trumponomics, and China’s evolving place in the world order. The panel clashes over who is to blame for the current crisis, prospects for recovery, and whether technology offers hope or only deepens the risks.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are We Heading for Global Depression?

• Professor Zhang opens on a stark note, emphasizing, “We are heading towards a global depression.” (01:03)
• Steve Keen highlights that we’re facing a shock “larger than [the oil crises of] 1973 or 1979,” pointing to not just oil but losses of helium, fertilizer, and sulfuric acid vital to industry:

  “This is going to cause a monumental shock to the production system of the entire planet.” (03:09)

• All three panelists agree the situation is dire, but differ on causes and solutions.

2. Economic Impact of the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Crisis

• Piers Morgan sets the scene: Iran’s blockage of the Strait is sparking potential famine and recession worldwide. Gas prices and inflation are surging; economic chaos is predicted to last for months (01:49).
• Steve Keen warns:

  “This is going to be a financial crisis caused by damage to the production system, which is the opposite of the usual situation. The financial system screws the manufacturing system.” (04:08)

• Stephen Moore underscores the impact of higher oil prices as “a tax on the world economy.” He says Trump’s “drill baby, drill” initially lowered prices, but that the crisis exposes America’s vulnerability to global shocks (06:17).

3. Role of US Policy & Trumponomics

• Piers critiques Trump’s confrontation with Iran as a “massive gamble” with far-reaching political and economic downside (07:56).
• Stephen Moore defends:

  “Trump has said short term pain for long term gain... if the price remains high, it will have a very negative effect.” (09:07)

• Moore further blames the lack of allied support, to which Piers retorts that Trump’s insults toward allies have discouraged cooperation (10:09).
• Steve Keen is blunt:

  “[Trump] simply wants to make himself the center of attention... The only way out is for Donald Trump to declare victory while conceding defeat.” (15:54–17:21)

4. Who Bears Responsibility? The 'Evil Empire' Debate

• Stephen Moore: “It seems like you all can’t determine who’s the good guy here and who’s the evil... How are we the bad guys by trying to save lives?” (18:08–19:38)
• Steve Keen:

  “If you can’t realize that America is the evil empire here... Stop reading Hollywood scripts and realize which planet you’re on.” (01:30, 20:14)

• The heated exchange continues, with Moore defending US interventionism, and Keen countering with the US’s history of failed wars and foreign interventions.

5. China’s Role and Strategic Position

• Professor Zhang: China is not sitting out the crisis; it “did a lot of backdoor diplomacy” for a ceasefire, but sees the US as being “unreasonable in negotiations.” Warns of escalation and predicts a ground invasion would be catastrophic (12:19–13:45).
• On resilience:

  “China has been much more resilient and much more able to adapt to a new economic circumstance... [But] China is still an economy that depends on exports, and if there are wars raging around the world, that’s going very hard for China.” (22:09)

• Predicts China will become “more isolationist” in the wake of global turmoil (23:37).

6. Potential for Escalation – Military & Humanitarian Risk

• Steve Keen: Considers a US ground invasion of Iran “absolutely ludicrous,” predicting a slaughter of American troops and likening the situation to “another false flag, which America should be famous for” (14:00–15:17)
• Warns of guerrilla retaliation and possible evacuation of Gulf states if desalination plants are attacked, creating a humanitarian disaster:

  “People are not going to starve to death, they're going to die of thirst. The horrific possibilities here are just ludicrous...” (24:16)

7. Debate on Manufacturing, Energy, and the Future

• Steve Keen: The West has “outsourced its survival,” whereas China could endure thanks to internal infrastructure – but even Chinese resilience has limits (21:14).
• Stephen Moore: US should maximize domestic energy (oil, gas, coal, and nuclear) to avoid relying on the Middle East, celebrating the US becoming the world’s top producer and the “fall” of OPEC (26:23).
• Piers and Zhang remind that no major economy is truly isolated from global energy markets (27:44–28:37).

8. Bitcoin and the Future of Money

• Steve Keen dismisses Bitcoin as fundamentally flawed:

  “Bitcoin can only be used as a store of value or a means of payment... We’ve had almost 20 years of Bitcoin now, and it’s still not used by any scale as a means of payment.” (29:26)

  • Predicts a collapse in value if energy shortages persist, as Bitcoin’s energy use is unsustainable (31:34).
• Stephen Moore supports private currency for central bank competition, but says, “I don’t own Bitcoins because I don’t understand it and it makes me nervous and I think it could crash.” (32:16)

9. Global Depression vs. Technological Salvation

• Professor Zhang: “We are heading towards a global depression ... The level of destruction, a level of pain and suffering that we are moving towards is unimaginable.” (33:10)
• Stephen Moore: Contrasts with optimism:

  “We are entering the greatest period of productivity, the greatest productivity revolution in the history of civilization ... through the robotics revolution.” (33:34)

• Steve Keen: Firmly disagrees, warning that progress requires energy:

  “A 10% fall in energy means a 10% fall in GDP. That’s as big a downturn as the Great Depression.” (35:19)

• Criticizes the US for focusing on military dominance rather than energy infrastructure and cautions that only China, with its aggressive renewables push, is addressing the urgent need for energy transition (36:21).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Steve Keen (on US interventions):

  “All America's tactics have backfired so far. They'll continue backfiring. The only way out is for Donald Trump to declare victory while conceding defeat.” (16:56)

• Stephen Moore (on Trump’s gamble):

  “Trump has said short term pain for long term gain. And the big question, of course, is how long is that short term pain going to last?” (09:07)

• Professor Zhang:

  “We are on... the undiscovered country.” (33:10)

• Steve Keen (on global energy economics):

  “If you don't have the energy, the economy collapses... We're going to see a 10 or 20% fall in energy levels... That's as big a downturn as the Great Depression.” (35:19)

• Piers Morgan (on European wariness):

  “We have quite long memories here of what happened with Iraq, where we were assured that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and we went to war. It cost enormous amount of money, enormous amount of lives lost, led to the rise of isis. It was pretty well a catastrophe.” (10:31)

• Steve Keen (on Bitcoin):

  “The two easiest things to end [in an energy crisis] are international tourism and bitcoin.” (31:48)

• Stephen Moore (on US energy):

  “The reason opec, the real reason OPEC is falling apart is that the country that has the most oil and gas in the world is the United States.” (26:23)

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Key Timestamps

• 01:03 – Prof. Zhang: “We are heading towards a global depression.”
• 03:09 – Steve Keen: “This is going to cause a monumental shock to the production system...”
• 06:17 – Stephen Moore: “Energy is the master resource... higher price of oil is basically a tax on the world economy.”
• 10:09 – Piers Morgan: “One of the problems is [Trump] keeps trashing them all publicly...”
• 12:19 – Prof. Zhang: “China did a lot of backdoor diplomacy...”
• 14:00 – Steve Keen: “A ground invasion would be... pouring fuel onto a burning fire.”
• 15:54–17:21 – Kean’s critique of Trump and call for US to “declare victory while conceding defeat.”
• 18:08 – Stephen Moore: “It seems like you all can't determine who's the good guy...”
• 20:14 – Steve Keen: “If you can't realize that the evil empire here, then You've the United States.”
• 24:16 – Steve Keen: “People are not going to starve to death, they're going to die of thirst...”
• 26:23 – Stephen Moore: “The fact that OPEC is falling apart... is a very good thing.”
• 29:26 – Steve Keen on why Bitcoin will collapse in crisis.
• 33:10 – Professor Zhang: “We are heading towards a global depression... unimaginable.”
• 33:34 – Stephen Moore: “We are entering the greatest period of productivity in history... robotics revolution.”
• 35:19 – Steve Keen: “A 10% fall in energy means a 10% fall in GDP... as big a downturn as the Great Depression.”
• 36:21 – Steve Keen: “The only country that's getting there is China...”

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Tone and Dynamics

The episode bristles with urgency, disagreement, and big-picture thinking. Piers Morgan is pointed but measured, playing moderator and devil’s advocate. Steve Keen is the outspoken pessimist, frequently clashing with Stephen Moore, whose defense of US policy and optimism about technology are unwavering. Professor Zhang is more analytical and nuanced, giving context for China’s actions and strategic mindset.

The debate is intense and, at times, caustic, with personal barbs (Keen on Moore’s “Hollywood history,” Moore on Keen’s “personality disorder”), but always returns to the central issues of economic collapse, technological hope, and the dangers of geopolitical escalation.

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Conclusion

A sobering, at times fiery, debate at the intersection of war, economics, and the future of global power. The consensus from two of three guests: the global system is entering unprecedented turmoil, possibly depression. But Stephen Moore remains defiantly optimistic about technological transformation. The panel members' sharply contrasting perspectives underscore the stakes as crises in the Persian Gulf threaten to reshape the balance of power, the structure of economies, and the fate of billions.

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Summary prepared for those seeking a comprehensive and accurate overview of the episode’s major themes and insights.

Transcript

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[Piers Morgan]

Are we heading for a global recession, do you think?

[Professor Zhang]

I think that we are heading towards a global depression.

[Steve Keen]

I'm terrified. People are not going to starve to death, they're going to die of thirst.

[Stephen Moore]

Where is Russia? Where are the Brits? Where are the Chinese? Where are the Europeans? I think that's been a big problem for Trump is nobody seems to be helping.

[Piers Morgan]

If you want to get people to help, you probably don't. Call them a bunch of morons all the time would be my starting point.

[Stephen Moore]

It seems like you all can't determine who's the good guy here and here's the evil, you know, the bad guys. Yeah, exactly. I mean, that's my point.

[Steve Keen]

Okay, if you can't realize that America is the evil empire here, you're saying

[Stephen Moore]

the United States is the evil empire?

[Steve Keen]

Yes. Stop reading Hollywood scripts and realize which planet you're on.

[Piers Morgan]

Okay though.

[Stephen Moore]

If we're the evil empire, why is it every immigrant in the world wants

[Piers Morgan]

to come to the United States?

[Steve Keen]

Nobody wants to go there now, mate.

[Piers Morgan]

This is a serious warning announced the IRGC after firing at a US Warship. The Strait of Hormuzzi remains closed. The hundred mile choke point along Iran's southern border has become the regime's most powerful weapon. Clearly the United States has no military solution for opening it. And while President Trump may boast that the US doesn't need the strait rocketing Gas prices spiking inflation say otherwise. Recent polls show that voters now trust Democrats more than Republicans on the economy for the first time in 16 years. The fact is that oil trades in a global market. That means Americans will pay the price just like the rest of us. And while the White House has promised immediate relief as soon as the strait reopens, most experts say the economic chaos will reign for months or worse. So how bad could it all get? Well, one of my guests today is warning of everything from recession to famine. Joining me to debate is the economics professor and commentator Steve Keen, former economics adviser to President Trump, Stephen Moore, and returning to Uncensored, the game theorist Professor Zhang. Well, welcome to all three of you. Steve Keane, welcome to Uncensored.

[Steve Keen]

Thank you.

[Piers Morgan]

What is going on here economically? We keep being told this is the worst stress on the global economy through energy that we've ever seen. Is that right? And how much worse could it get?

[Steve Keen]

Well, it's right. And every measure and I've seen said it's larger than 1973 with the Yom Kippur War, larger than the price rise in the 1979, when prices increased by a factor of four. And it's basically destruction of a large part of the planet's infrastructure for dragging oil out of the ground and everything else we get along with oil. So it's not just oil that's being destroyed. It's something like about 30% of the world's helium supply. It's something of the 30 to 50% of fertilizer. Sulfuric acid is. Half of the sulfuric acid we use for industrial processes has gone. This is going to cause a monumental shock to the production system of the entire planet.

[Piers Morgan]

The, the markets so far have been remarkably resilient, given how stressed this has all been. Why is that? And are we going to wake up, as some predict? I think you'd be one of them. Is there going to be a massive backlash to all this in terms of a potential recession, do you think?

[Steve Keen]

Yes, I do. And like, I'm just smiling because I remember listening to George Soros once explaining, explain his approach to how he made money out of the markets. And he says, forget the efficient markets hypothesis. That's a load of nonsense. What actually the markets actually do is they underreact in the first place and then overreact later. So he'd pick something where there was going to be an underreaction, like, for example, what's going to happen to the British pound back in the days of fixed exchange rates. And he'd say he'd buy them at that stage and know that they up or down to take a put or a call position, know that the market's going to come up to his position later and make a killing. Now that's what's happening right now. I spoke with five people who are financial markets experts in a Twitter forum some couple of weeks back and I finally got bored and left the damn thing because not one of them talked anything about the physical manufacturing processes behind what's happening in the Strait. And when you destroy helium production, when you destroy fertilizer throughput, when you lock all those resources up, the production system has to fall over. This is going to be a financial crisis caused by damage to the production system, which is the opposite of the usual situation. The financial system screws the manufacturing system.

[Piers Morgan]

Stephen Moore, welcome to Uncensored to you. You've been very supportive of Trump economics. Trumponomics, as some people call struck me that this was always a massive gamble by President Trump and that the potential downside was big. And it's turned out to be very big so far with very little, at the moment, I would say very little tangible upside in terms of concessions from the Iranians because they realized that by strangling and controlling the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with their strategy of attacking their neighbors, their Gulf state neighbors, that that two pronged strategy can be very effective and in damaging the economy both for the Gulf states and for the global economy. With Australia, you know, how bullish are you about what is going on here if this carries on for a few weeks or months?

[Stephen Moore]

Well, I certainly agree that, look, energy is the master resource. Everything that we have is derivative of energy. And so when you see the price of oil go up to as high as $110 a barrel from it was at, you know, almost half that level at the beginning of the year. Remember, at the beginning of the year, thanks in part to Trump's drill baby drill strategy, we had the lowest gas prices in 50 years adjusted for inflation. So everything was going swimmingly with respect to energy. And then all of a sudden you have the straits closed down, you have the bombing. And that has certainly disrupted things in a very negative way. And look, a higher, higher price of oil is just a, basically a tax on the world economy. It affects everyone that so many industries, from our technology industry to our transportation industry to our manufacturing is all very dramatically affected by a higher price of oil. And the real question is, how long will this last? Now, none of us know that answer. I would say that the best way of gauging how long this will last is to look at the futures market. In other words, you can buy a barrel of oil three months from now and you can pay a price for that. And so the futures markets are telling us that the price of oil will migrate back down to, you know, 70 or $80 a barrel. And let's hope that they're right, because if it doesn't happen, it's going to be really bad news for the Republicans come midterm elections. Because the one thing, one thing that we all know is that, that Americans hate paying high gas prices at the pump.

[Piers Morgan]

Yeah. But the person that knew that better than anybody was President Trump. You know, I've known him a long time. You have? Yes. It was a massive gamble. I understand he wants to stop Iran developing a nuclear weapon. I understand the argument. I just felt like going to war with Iran in the way that's happened had so many potential negatives to it, that it was an enormous political risk, never mind anything else, and a huge, as it's turned out, economic risk. And the truth is about the future markets, for example, with this, I don't think anybody knows. I mean, the truth is I don't think President Trump knows. What we do know is that the irgc, the Iranian regime, remains pretty well in charge. That seems clear because the people are not rising up at all. We know that the Strait of Hormos remains pretty well closed. They have control of that. And, you know, if they think they can hold America to economic ransom, it is highly likely, given the history of this 47 year regime. But that's exactly what they'll do, that they will affect maximum leverage economically, knowing that that is actually their most effective weapon.

[Stephen Moore]

So I would simply say to that that, you know, Trump has said short term pain for long term gain. And the big question, of course, is how long is that short term pain going to last? And so I don't have an answer to that. I am not a foreign policy expert, I'm an economist. I'm here to tell you if the price remains high, it will have a very negative effect on, especially given the fact that we are now moving into this incredible new age of AI robotics, where the data centers where our energy demands are going to double over the next 10 years. So we're going to use a lot more energy. And I'll just say one other final point. The world is not running out of oil and gas. The world is awash in oil and gas. This is a supply chain problem because the strait is being shut down and the World has to come together to. To get those straits open. Where is Russia? Where are the Brits? Where are the Chinese? Where are the Europeans in helping get that done? I think that's been a big problem for Trump is nobody seems to be helping.

[Piers Morgan]

Well, one of the problems is he keeps trashing them all publicly, which is, if you want to get people to help, you probably don't call them a bunch of morons all the time would be my starting point. Let me bring.

[Stephen Moore]

Yeah, but we've helped. Look, we've helped them for 40. We spent $100 billion on the defense of Europe. So, I mean, for them to sit on their hands. I think Trump is right to say maybe we're gonna have to reinvestigate this relationship with Europe.

[Piers Morgan]

Well, it could just be that a lot of European countries were not persuaded that Iran was about to imminently have a nuclear weapon. And the reason for that, I can speak for my country, the uk Although if I'd been Prime Minister, I would absolutely allowed America to use our bases for any military action they wanted. I do think that we have quite long memories here of what happened with Iraq, where we were assured that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and we went to war. It cost enormous amount of money, enormous amount of lives lost, led to the rise of isis. It was pretty well a catastrophe. So I think people in Britain and others in Europe that went to war in Iraq over the issue of WMD are like, you know what? We're not persuaded. And they should be allowed to be not persuaded, in my opinion, without the President, you know, going completely berserk as he's done. Because I don't think that helps persuade anybody to help in the way that I think you reasonably put out a sort of narrative here that, yes, of course, all the countries have a vested interest in the Strait being reopened, ought to be working together to do it. But it is quite hard when the guy that started the war but led to it being shut is just trashing you all the time. Professor Zhang, let me bring you back into. Welcome back to Uncensored. We always get a great reaction when you come on, so thank you for sparing me some of your valuable time. Stephen mentioned there China and why China isn't doing more to help. It is interesting because China really gets more energy through the Strait than anybody else in the world and therefore has a bigger vested interest, you would think, in getting it reopened as soon as possible. Why is China kind of sitting this out?

[Professor Zhang]

Well, China is not sending this out. We have the ceasefire in place because China did a lot of backdoor diplomacy in order to pressure the Iranians to attempt a cease fire. This is out of character for China. China does not like to involve itself in other nations affairs. And so I think without trying this pressure, we would not have the IRGC agreeing with the Cesar in the first place. The issue is that the United States continues to be unreasonable in negotiations with the Iranians. The Iranians have done a lot in order to try to accommodate the Americans. But you know, when J.D. vance went to Pakistan for the first time to negotiate with Iranians, basically it was a very heavy handed ultimatum to the Iranians. And after that, I think that the Iranians recognize that there really is no hope in negotiating with the Americans. The Americans want to escalate. Why the Americans want to escalate we don't know. But we can expect that over the next few weeks the escalation will increase. Trump has talked about using US Naval ships to escort oil tankers. Foolish of Hormuz. This is clearly a provocation and we might have a Gulf of Token incident which will allow Trump to justify a ground invasion.

[Piers Morgan]

Right. And a ground invasion, Steve Keane, would be, to me just pouring fuel onto what is already a burning fire of mayhem over there, which I think could be horrendous for the United States.

[Steve Keen]

Absolutely, absolutely. And I think the soldiers on the ships are having much the same reactions. We don't know whether the nuclear aircraft carriers taken out by Iranian attacks or by sailors stuffing their own clothing into the sewerage system to block it and force it out of the conflict. Those are our two choices. You have probably the least willing American military in the history of America's military incursions supposed to go up against a country of 90 million people who know they face an existential risk. It's absolutely ludicrous to be talking about ground troops going into that part of the world. And I've had, you know, I'm not an expert in military matters either. We've all acknowledged that. But, but from what I've got from reports of people who I know are experts in that area, unless the Americans have Star wars style weapons to use against the Iranians, then this is going to be a slaughter of those American troops. And then I completely agree. This has probably been set up as another false flag which America should be famous for. The Gulf of Tonkin, which dragged them into the Vietnam conflict in the first place, was put across as an attacker by American ships in international waters, was actually an American attack within Vietnamese waters. All this stuff America sets up these wars and then loses them.

[Piers Morgan]

You've described Donald Trump as an anarchist who behaves like a Mafia boss with no idea of consequences. And you've sent this message to world leaders. Get rid of Trump. Stop this. America has to concede defeat and step back to give us a chance to rebuild the world's physical infrastructure before global famine sets in. You added, it's a clusterfuck coming out of America. If you're going to see regime change to stop this war, forget about seeing it in Iran, you need to see it in America. I mean, that's strong rhetorical stuff there. Just explain what you're getting at.

[Steve Keen]

Well, first of all, I mean, my perspective on Trump comes from having a personal relationship with somebody with narcissistic personality disorder and everything. I think the one advantage of that relationship in the long term was I understood Donald Trump, I think, and that is that he simply wants to make himself the center of attention. And it doesn't matter how you do it. You make a center of attention by giving a nice stance or. Or by invading another country. He just wants to be the center of attention. I think that's why he fell for Netanyahu's provocation, which 40 years of previous American presidents have resisted, and went in in the belief that it was over in a couple of days. I mean, all the talk about, you know, we've got to get Iran to be reasonable. Iran, Iranian regime, yada, yada, yada. The very first thing the Americans did was assassinate the top leadership of the country, including the father, and I believe the wife of the new leader. You want to be taken seriously as somebody to negotiate with. That just tells you, don't negotiate. Defeat them on the ground. And just like Vietnam was a war where they brought an enormous firepower and lost to a guerrilla army, this is bringing in enormous power. Power and taking against a political system which has broken itself into 31 like heads of a hydra, so that you can't take it out collectively. So all America's tactics have backfired so far. They'll continue backfiring. The only way out is for Donald Trump to declare victory while conceding defeat.

[Piers Morgan]

Stephen Moore. I mean, look, I can't imagine a scenario where Donald Trump tries to get out of this without at least presenting a case for total victory. That's his nature. But in terms of this war and the impact it's had on his legacy, how was the tariff war doing before all this? In other words, the Trumponomics, which he launched with a huge gusto, you know, a kind of year ago. How was that playing out, do you think? Globally before this? In other words, you know, was his economic strategy, do you think, working? And has this put everything back or was it not really working and this is added to the general sense of chaos?

[Stephen Moore]

Well, first of all, I just have to say, I mean, come on, it seems like you all can't determine who's the good guy here and here's the evil. And by the way, you're the bad

[Steve Keen]

guys, for God's sake.

[Stephen Moore]

Yeah, exactly. I mean, that's my point. If you actually think that we're the bad guys in the arenas and the good guys, you have a personality disorder, my friend. And it really is amazing that you think that we're the villains here. And this is a regime. And by the way, again, I'm not even, I wasn't even necessarily in favor of this incursion in the first place, but come on, this is a regime that was killing thousands, Thousands murdering their own people. This was the regime building a nuclear weapon. So how are we the bad guys? By trying to save lives. And I do think, look, I think to Trump's credit, he really did. He did view this as a humanitarian mission to save lives that were being slaughtered. Now, in terms of our economy, look, you know, we've had now five and a half years of Trump's presidency with an incredibly strong economy. Trumpanomics has worked. If it hadn't been for Covid, Trump would have been reelected with a 40 state reelection landslide. The economy was very strong going into 2026. And it's true that the Iran situation has really changed that picture dramatically, which is why Trump really needs to bring this to an end as quickly as possible. But by the way, I'm not, I'm not just attacking Steve. I think there are a lot of foreign leaders too, who can't seem to figure out who's the good guy and who's the bad guy here. That's pretty troubling to America.

[Steve Keen]

I was facing being conscripted to fight for freedom in Vietnam. And the one thing that threw me is why am I being conscripted to fight for freedom? Ok, you go into Vietnam, you attack it. Your whole thing is about going to stop the communist invasion of Southeast Asia. Who was the first country Vietnam has a war with? China, the first and last war that turned out completely against what you thought was going to happen. Afghanistan, Iraq, I was against all those. Well, you should be against this one as well. Grow up. Okay? If you can't realize that the evil empire here, then You've the United States.

[Stephen Moore]

You're saying the United States is the evil empire?

[Steve Keen]

Yes. The United States.

[Stephen Moore]

Wow.

[Steve Keen]

Began this. What country has invaded America? How many countries has America invaded? Please stop reading Hollywood scripts. And

[Stephen Moore]

I seem to think that 9, 11 was an attack on America. Maybe you don't agree with that, but.

[Steve Keen]

Yes. Okay, that's which country I said before.

[Stephen Moore]

Oops, you forgot about that one, right?

[Steve Keen]

No, I didn't forget. I said country, and no country did that. That was a rogue. The rogues came from Saudi Arabia, not from the bloody country you related. And the results were. You guys have got a Hollywood version of your own history. It's a joke from the outside. Nobody takes you seriously anymore.

[Stephen Moore]

Okay, before the evil empire, why is it every immigrant in the world wants to come to the United States?

[Steve Keen]

Nobody wants to go there now, mate. Oh, yeah, right.

[Stephen Moore]

You should be at the border. We have millions of people who are signing up to get visas to come to the United States. They don't want to go to any other country. They want to come to the US

[Piers Morgan]

from my point of view, let me be crystal clear. I do think Iran is an evil regime. For 47 years, it's been oppressive to its own people in a despicable way. And also it's been the key sponsor of terrorism through the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas through the last few decades. And we've all seen where that has led. And that's been part of the big picture problem. President Xiang, let me bring you back in here. People are looking at manufacturing resilience as one of the reasons why China ultimately will prevail here in the economic aspect of what is going on. China's moved beyond cheap labor to advanced automation. Steve Keen has noted that if global trade stops, China has the internal infrastructure to survive, whereas the west has outsourced its survival. Do you agree with that?

[Professor Zhang]

Yeah, I mean, if you just look at the past couple of months, China has been much more resilient and much more able to adapt to a new economic circumstance than other countries in Southeast Asia, especially the Philippines and Thailand. And Japan's also a lot of stress. Stress as well. So it seems like the Chinese government has been preparing for this eventuality for a long, long time. They've been very strategic. They've been very, very long term in their thinking. The issue is that the long term strategic scenario does not favor China because China is still an economy that depends on exports. And if there are these wars raging around the world that's going very hard for China to export its manufactured goods. To the rest of the world. The second issue is that China consumes a lot of resources. Yes, I do understand that China has renewables, and I do know that China has a lot of inventory and stockpiles. But eventually all this is going to run out. So from a long term strategic perspective, China is not as well adapted to a change as, say, maybe Russia or the United States.

[Piers Morgan]

Will, what's happened here with Iran and actually to a lesser degree, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has also been now four years in now, and it's becoming a real quagmire. Will what's happened determination China from invading Taiwan, for example?

[Professor Zhang]

I think that given the current geopolitical outlook and given the fact that this situation in Iran is only going to escalate and this may have ripple effects throughout the world, I think that China is going to be much more cautious in its approach. In fact, we may see that China begins to become much more isolationist over the years.

[Piers Morgan]

Yeah, I mean, that's what I would certainly be tempted to if I were them. Steve Keane, what is your prediction? We've talked about what is happening and what we feel about it, but what is your prediction for how this plays out?

[Steve Keen]

I'm terrified about what the consequences could be here because the Iranians have done a very clever tactic of basically guerrilla warfare at a national level, far beyond what the Vietnamese were ready for in the very first instance, and they are doing tit for tat. Anybody who's been a supporter of America, of course, that includes the Arab principalities and kingdoms, and the Israelis as well, will be retaliated for any attack done on specific, similar resources inside Iran itself. Now, Trump's there's already been one attack on a desalination plant in Iran. And I think I've seen figures to say that 96% of Iran's water is natural. You look at the other side, the Arabian state, some of them have 96% dependence upon desalination. If it goes that far, then we will. And then you have no idea how this stupid attack is going to turn out, then that could mean that those areas have to be evacuated because people are not going to starve to death, they're going to die of thirst. Now, the horrific possibilities here are just ludicrous and it's absolutely monumental failure of judgment to begin this conflict in the first place.

[Piers Morgan]

Yeah, I mean, Stephen Moore, that is the problem, it seems to me, is that no one can say with any real confidence what is going to happen. And the one thing that global economy needs is confidence. And no One can say that we've also got this kind of geopolitical turmoil now with the Gulf states where they've all been attacked. They're seeing their business model to replace oil, which was going to be tourism, and come here, it's safe, it's sunny, we're going to have entertainment and sport and so on. We're seeing a dramatic dialing down of investment in things like golf, the LIV Golf investment is ending and so on. You're seeing lots of immediate reactive signs that this has been very damaging to the ongoing future business model of countries like Saudi Arabia, states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar and so on. So there's a lot going on here, isn't there?

[Stephen Moore]

There is. I mean, I don't know kind of where to start. I would simply say that, I mean, one really, really positive thing that's happened the last couple of weeks is the UAE dropping out of opec. I mean, as long as I've been alive, since I was a teenager, I go back to the 1970s, you know, we've had OPEC with a blade at our neck where they could just by turning on and off the spigots, they could really throwing the American economy into recession and causing global recession. And the fact that OPEC is falling apart, or at least appears so, is a very good thing. And by the way, the reason opec, the real reason OPEC is falling apart is that the country that has the most oil and gas in the world is the United States. We're the number one producer now, which is amazing. And how do you have a cartel when the number one producer isn't part of your cartel? So whether you like Donald Trump or not, everybody has to agree that his drill baby, drill strategy has been amazing for the US Economy, that it's made us less reliant, although we're still reliant on Middle east oil made us much less so. So I think the approach going forward for the US should be produce as much energy as we possibly can at home. Our oil, our gas, our coal, our nuclear power. And when, when, when it's appropriate, we could maybe get some oil energy from wind and solar, use it all so that we don't have to be captive to the Middle east any longer.

[Piers Morgan]

But is it naive, is it naive, Stephen, for President Trump to take a view of, you know, this is not our problem, Right? The energy part of this. We produce our own energy. Almost pretending there isn't a global energy economy.

[Stephen Moore]

No, that's true.

[Piers Morgan]

That America inevitably will be dependent on, of course.

[Stephen Moore]

And There's a global oil supply and a global oil, you know, demand. And what I'm saying is that we can somewhat inoculate ourselves from that by. Because the more and more we produce, the more valuable the oil is.

[Piers Morgan]

Professor Zhang, the inevitable consequence of all this, I guess, is that many countries, as Stephen Moore just indicated, will become, as you said earlier about China, more isolationist. What impact will that have, do you think, on geopolitics globally?

[Professor Zhang]

I think that we are coming to a point where the world, to me, very similar to 1930s when the world became much more isolationist, when the global economy collapsed and when war started to flare around the world. Even though America is the wealthiest country in the world, even though it is energy independent, its economy is still globally reliant. So the GCC collapses, then it loses its petrodollar, it loses trillions of dollars in investment, and we could see a financial crisis in America over the next few months, which would lead to a catastrophic global depression. So the outlook for the world is very, very grim.

[Piers Morgan]

Steve Keane, you've been very apocalyptic about the future of Bitcoin. Explain why.

[Steve Keen]

Mainly because people talk about Bitcoin as being an alternative to money. And this is, to me, just naive about the nature of money itself. And this is common across the entire economics profession. Economists, weirdly enough, in their mathematical models, do not include banks or debt or money. And they understand cheap money as if it's a commodity. When money is fundamentally a promise of a bank to you to honor your liabilities to them, that's the actual nature of it. So when Bitcoin was formed, it was based on the same idea as a. A similar outcome to gold. The trouble is that gold actually does have a value outside its use in the monetary system. The production cost of gold is about $500 an ounce, I believe, at the moment. And that's pretty. It's pretty much its floor. If you don't use it for money, then this price will, or a hedge against economic danger. Then its value will fall back to its cost of production plus a margin. It's used in all sorts from jewelry to computer devices. Bitcoin can only be used as EAs, a store of value or a means of payment. Now, We've had almost 20 years of Bitcoin now, and it's still not used by any scale as a means of payment. And the main thing of it's been treated as a store of value. That's where the term HODL comes from. Hold on for dear life. So the idea is you've Got a device which is supposed to be replacing money, but it's focusing upon the store of value side of money rather than the use for exchanges. Now if you focus upon the store of value, you don't spend so unwise the feeling it's actually wrongly set up in the first place. So it's only got value why people think its price is going to rise. Now we're reaching the point where maybe you've got as much as its penetration will ever go and when it stops rising, then the only way to go is down. Where I see the bottom isn't zero quite, but it's at the stage where there are transactions you don't want to put through the swift system or through the monetary system. Illegal drug sales come to mind and weapons sales and that sort of thing that sits flaw, way, way below. It's currently what, $60,000 price roughly.

[Piers Morgan]

And is the particular issue with bitcoin also that it uses up enormous amounts of energy and therefore if there becomes a global energy shortage, that puts even more pressure on bitcoin?

[Steve Keen]

Yeah, absolutely. I'm totally on the other side of the fence on global warming, by the way to Steven. He probably knows that. But in that case, if we are forced to say we've got to cut back on energy consumption, then the two easiest things to end are international tourism and bitcoin.

[Piers Morgan]

Stephen, oddly, I found. I saw you nodding pretty much throughout everything Steve Keane just said. So have we reached a point of agreement here?

[Stephen Moore]

Maybe I'm not a. Look, I'm glad that we have alternative private currencies out there, which is exactly what bitcoin is. I got to tell you, I'm not an. And I don't own bitcoins because I don't understand it and it makes me nervous and I think it could crash. But who knows? I know people invested in early who are now, you know, set a millionaire. So what I would say though, the reason I favor these kind of alternative private currencies is for too long we've let central bankers control our money supply and they haven't done a very good job of it with herky jerky inflation. And so I think this is a good way to keep. By the way, the central bankers hate cryptocurrencies because they don't want the competition. Kind of a libertarian. So I like the idea that, that cryptos are out there, but I'm not investing them myself.

[Piers Morgan]

Professor Zhang, just finally, are we heading for a global recession, do you think?

[Professor Zhang]

I think that we are heading towards a global depression and this is a process that could take decades. We are in a new normal. We are on. We are in the undiscovered country.

[Stephen Moore]

We are.

[Professor Zhang]

We are. The level of destruction, a level of pain and suffering that we are moving towards is unimaginable. So

[Stephen Moore]

can I answer that question?

[Piers Morgan]

Yes, look.

[Stephen Moore]

We are entering the greatest period of productivity, the greatest productivity revolution in the history of civilization. Over the next 10 years, we'll never see anything like what is coming with respect to this incredible robotics revolution. So that's going to raise living standards. This is like the.

[Piers Morgan]

Easy though, Stephen, because surely the big question with that is, if the future is robotic, then aren't humans just going to get screwed in the process?

[Stephen Moore]

No, it's like saying, well, gee, isn't a machine going to make people poor? No, economic progress and productivity makes people richer, not poor. And so we're going to see amazing. And by the way, not just in the area of production, because, you know, literally in the next 10 years, we'll have technology through the blind. People will be able to see. People in wheelchairs will be able to rise up and walk. We'll be able to cure cancer. I mean, this is an incredible future we're facing and it's going to not just be good for our health, but our wealth as well.

[Piers Morgan]

Okay, so we have two options. Steve Keane, finally. One is a global. A global depression over the next few decades. The other one is a global exposure explosion of euphoric joy and success and triumph. So what do you say?

[Steve Keen]

Remember the old moving sliding doors?

[Piers Morgan]

Yes.

[Steve Keen]

You make it through the train, you don't make it through the train. I think we're at a sliding doors moment. I'm completely disagree with Stephen and we haven't talked global warming, and I think he's completely wrong on that front.

[Stephen Moore]

You don't think that technology will let me. Do you not think that technology will cause more problems?

[Steve Keen]

Technology requires energy. One of my little shorthands label that energy as a corpse. Capital of that energy is a sculpture. If you don't have the energy, the economy collapses. We're seeing that right now with what the Iran war is doing. We're going to see a 10 or 20% fall in energy levels. Quite literally when you look at the data. A 10% fall in energy means a 10% fall in GDP. That's as big a downturn as the Great Depression. So that alone is coming our way right now out of this stupid war that should never have been commenced. Then the long term, I would love us to get to that future. I'm a technology designer myself, I understand this area. I would love to see it happen. But it means we have to avoid catastrophe from global warming. I know you believe that. It's a myth. Your side has won the public debate over that. We're going to find out the hard way in the next five years whether you're right or not. That's the sliding door. We could make it to the other side. We have the future of plenty. But if we don't make it to the other side, we go back to cave.

[Stephen Moore]

Yeah. Technology is the solution to climate change. In other words, the only way, if it's really happening, the only way to divert it is.

[Steve Keen]

The only country that's getting there is China. China is the one country that seems to be pushing itself heavily in towards alternative energy, both renewables and nuclear. And it's even got the world's first relatively successful thorium reactor. So America's wasted its time invading other countries, blowing up the rest of the planet, trying to control the oil system rather than building its own infrastructure.

[Stephen Moore]

China is the winner. You're saying China's going to use energy that's twice as expensive as oil, gas and coal and somehow they're going to get rich on that. I would bet against that.

[Steve Keen]

People used to say that sun doesn't always shine and the wind doesn't always blow. Now we're saying the strait of hormones doesn't always flow and that's far more significant. We're going to see a huge desire by people the rest of the world to liberate themselves from reliance upon oil. Whether you think that's economic or not, it's no point about being economic.

[Stephen Moore]

You know who tried to do that? Germany tried it. Look at Germany today.

[Steve Keen]

Germany also turned off nuclear power. Germany turned off its own nuclear power stations. That was monumentally stupid. Okay. China is the one that's been developing the nuclear technology. Good. Okay. China remembers the Opium wars far better than the rest of the world does. They know they can't trust the West. They're building self sufficiency and technological leadership. If you want to see technological leadership and where robotics might lead to people benefiting, it's going to be China, not America.

[Piers Morgan]

Okay, we've got to leave it there. Fascinating debate, gentlemen, thank you all very much. I really enjoyed that.

[Steve Keen]

Thank you. Thank you.

[Piers Morgan]

Peters Morgan on Sense that he's proudly independent. The only boss around here is me. If you enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing. Hit subscribe on YouTube and follow Piers Morgan uncensored on Spotify and Apple podcasts, and in return, we will continue our mission to inform, irritate and entertain. And we'll do it all for free. Independent, uncensored media has never been more critical, and we couldn't do it without you.

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