Pivot Podcast Summary: Big Tech Earnings, Trump Media Stock Plunge, and Guest Margaret Brennan

Hosted by Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network, this episode of "Pivot" delves into the latest developments in the tech industry, the tumultuous state of Trump Media's stock, and insights from political analyst Margaret Brennan as the U.S. approaches the pivotal 2024 election.

1. Big Tech Earnings Roundup

Microsoft: Microsoft reported a 16% increase in revenue and an 11% rise in net income, surpassing expectations. Despite this strong performance, the stock dipped by 4% due to forecasts of slower growth ahead. CFO Amy Hood highlighted an anticipated $1.5 billion loss mainly from investments in OpenAI. Notably, Microsoft's AI segment is on track to exceed a $10 billion annual run rate next quarter. Additionally, Xbox content and services revenue surged by 61%, driven by the Activision acquisition.

"AI Satya said 70% of Fortune 500 companies use Microsoft 365 Copilot for at least some employees."
— Scott Galloway [03:17]

Meta (Facebook): Meta showcased impressive growth with 19% revenue increase and a 35% rise in profits, yet its shares fell by 2%. The company's boost was primarily fueled by advancements in advertising targeting through AI investments. Meta also raised its annual spending forecast to $38-40 billion, primarily directed towards AI initiatives, which unsettled Wall Street despite the strong financials.

"The growth is already driven by advancements in advertising targeting, which the company says comes from its investments in AI."
— Kara Swisher [04:58]

Snap and Reddit: Snap's stock surged by 21% over five days following a 15% increase in sales and a reduction in net losses from $368 million to $153 million. Reddit experienced a 68% jump in revenue, achieving profitability for the first time and pushing its shares above $100. Both companies defied expectations, reflecting robust performance despite market skepticism.

"Reddit shares on or near $100 for the first time after reporting a 68% jump in revenue and turning profitable."
— Kara Swisher [19:22]

Apple’s AI Push: Apple introduced its first set of AI features dubbed Apple Intelligence, enhancing notification summaries, text writing tools, and image editing across iPhone, iPad, and Mac. While the reception was lukewarm, critics argue that Apple's AI offerings lack originality, merely replicating existing functionalities available from competitors. CEO Tim Cook emphasized that Apple aims to iterate on technology rather than lead the AI arms race, positioning itself to leverage partnerships rather than developing proprietary large language models (LLMs).

"Apple Intelligence isn't about being first but best. They're not investing like others but leveraging existing innovations."
— Scott Galloway [17:12]

2. Trump Media Stock Volatility

The episode delves into the erratic performance of Trump Media's stock, which briefly surpassed Elon Musk's X but has since been declining. The parent company faced a $16 million loss in the June quarter, with minimal workforce numbers exacerbating concerns about its fundamental business health. Trump himself saw a $1.3 billion loss in net worth following the company's tumultuous trading days.

Kara and Scott discuss potential manipulation theories behind the stock's volatility, citing Wash Trading—a strategy where shares are rapidly bought and sold to create a false sense of market activity. Investigations by blockchain firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital revealed signs of such manipulative activities within Polymarket’s presidential market.

"Wash trading constituted around 1/3 of trading volume in Polymarket's presidential market."
— Kara Swisher [12:30]

Scott explores theories suggesting that betting platforms could be manipulated either to amplify Trump's chances or to dissuade Republican engagement, drawing parallels to past market manipulations.

"The most obvious explanation is that the people betting on these sites are predominantly younger males, skewing heavily towards Trump support."
— Scott Galloway [08:27]

The hosts express skepticism about the stock’s movements being driven by genuine investor sentiment, emphasizing the need for transparency in trading activities to ascertain the true drivers behind the volatility.

3. Apple Intelligence: Innovation or Iteration?

Apple's latest AI features, Apple Intelligence, aim to enhance user experience but have received mixed reviews. The new tools include:

• Graphics Cues: Indicating AI involvement in apps.
• Writing Tools: Assisting in composing texts.
• AI Eraser: For photo editing.
• Notification Summaries: Streamlining message notifications.

Despite these additions, critics argue that Apple’s approach lacks groundbreaking innovation, offering only incremental improvements over existing technologies. Tim Cook acknowledged that the technology requires further refinement and emphasized Apple's strategy to focus on quality rather than speed.

"It's not like you turned on AI and thought, wow, AI is really changing things. It's incremental upgrades."
— Scott Galloway [17:12]

Galloway points out that Apple's business model, which avoids heavy investment in in-house AI development, is a strategic move to capitalize on existing AI advancements without direct competition.

4. Political Climate and Election Insights

As the U.S. approaches the 2024 election, significant tension and polarization are palpable. Scott recounts a fundraiser incident where a Trump supporter and an opposing spectator clashed, highlighting the nation's divisive state.

Biden’s Remarks: President Biden faced backlash after appearing to dismiss Trump supporters as "garbage," a comment he later clarified was referencing comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's hateful language. This gaffe has strained Democratic efforts, with Kamala Harris attempting to distance herself from Biden's remarks.

"Biden later said he was describing comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's hateful language as garbage."
— Kara Swisher [32:59]

Trump’s Comments: Trump continued his controversial rhetoric, making unsettling remarks about women, which further polarized public opinion. The hosts discuss how these statements overshadow substantive policy discussions, contributing to an "existential" crisis in national unity.

"I'm going to protect the women of our country. Whether they like it or not."
— Trump [34:36]

5. Jeff Bezos and the Washington Post Controversy

Jeff Bezos published an op-ed defending the Washington Post's decision not to endorse a presidential candidate, denying any quid pro quo. However, the move led to significant backlash, with the newspaper experiencing a 250,000 subscriber loss and a $30 million revenue hit.

Kara criticizes Bezos' handling of the situation, arguing that his response lacked accountability and failed to address the broader implications of media manipulation and business conflicts of interest.

"His response was well written, but I don't believe him. It all stinks."
— Scott Galloway [43:15]

The hosts discuss the challenges billionaires face when acquiring media properties, highlighting past failures and the inherent difficulties in maintaining journalistic integrity under heavy ownership influence.

6. Insights from Margaret Brennan on Election Security and Voter Behavior

Guest: Margaret Brennan, Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent for CBS and moderator of "Face the Nation."

Brennan provides a calm and measured analysis of the upcoming election, focusing on voter turnout and the potential for election-related violence. She emphasizes that:

• Economy as a Primary Issue: Economic concerns remain the top priority for voters, overshadowing other issues.

  "The economy is the number one issue. That's not surprising to me."
  — Margaret Brennan [54:37]

• Voter Turnout: Both parties are heavily focused on mobilizing their base, with Democrats particularly concerned about low-propensity voters.

• Potential for Violence: Brennan expresses concerns about political violence, noting alarming polling data indicating a willingness among some voters to justify violence to influence the election outcome.

  "I'm really concerned about political violence. We see it in our polling that we do here at CBS."
  — Margaret Brennan [63:40]

• Media Environment: The proliferation of misinformation and social media's role in stoking chaos is a significant worry, affecting public trust in institutions and democratic processes.

7. Predictions and Future Outlook

Scott Galloway’s Prediction: Galloway anticipates Kamala Harris winning the election, citing factors such as organizational strength among female voters and potential missteps by the Trump campaign related to voter mobilization in key states like Pennsylvania.

"I think Vice President Harris is going to win the election."
— Scott Galloway [73:30]

Kara Swisher’s Commentary: Swisher echoes concerns about election security and the influence of influential figures like Jeff Bezos in media, advocating for broader accountability and integrity within media ownership.

8. Closing Remarks and Guest Appreciation

Kara and Scott express their appreciation for Margaret Brennan's insights, highlighting the importance of balanced journalism in turbulent political times. They reiterate the critical role of media in shaping and informing public opinion, especially as the nation braces for a potentially historic and closely contested election.

"You always make a great calming presence, Margaret. Thank you for joining us."
— Kara Swisher [53:11]

Notable Quotes with Attributions

• Kara Swisher [03:05]: "Why did they do that? Why did that Trump person do that?"

• Scott Galloway [08:27]: "The most obvious explanation is that the people betting on these sites are predominantly younger males, skewing heavily towards Trump support."

• Margaret Brennan [63:40]: "I'm really concerned about political violence. We see it in our polling that we do here at CBS."

Conclusion

This episode of "Pivot" provides a comprehensive analysis of the current tech earnings landscape, the mysterious fluctuations in Trump Media's stock, and the rising political tensions as the 2024 election looms. With expert insights from Margaret Brennan, the hosts offer a nuanced perspective on the interplay between technology, media, and politics, emphasizing the critical need for informed participation and vigilance in safeguarding democratic processes.

For those seeking to stay informed on the intersection of tech, business, and politics, this episode serves as a valuable resource, offering both depth and clarity in its discussions.