Election Predictions, Comcast Spinoff Plans, and Guest Dan Harris - Pivot

Summary

Pivot Podcast Episode Summary: Election Predictions, Comcast Spinoff Plans, and Guest Dan Harris

Hosted by Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway from New York Magazine, the "Pivot" podcast delivers incisive discussions on the latest in tech, business, and politics. In this episode, titled "Election Predictions, Comcast Spinoff Plans, and Guest Dan Harris," Kara and Scott delve into critical topics ranging from market shifts in the semiconductor industry to the looming U.S. election, culminating in an insightful conversation with Dan Harris on managing election-related anxiety.

1. Intel’s Replacement by Nvidia on the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Timestamp: [09:17]

Scott Galloway opens the episode by discussing a significant change in the Dow Jones Industrial Average: Nvidia's addition replacing Intel. This move aims to provide a more representative exposure to the semiconductor industry.

Market Impact: Nvidia saw its stock rise nearly 3% in after-hours trading post-announcement, while Intel experienced a nearly 2% decline the previous week, including a historic $16 billion loss in Q3.
Scott’s Insight: He argues that Intel's replacement signals mismanagement and contrasts it with historical examples like Time Warner's decline. Scott emphasizes that such changes highlight the varying performances of major tech firms and their influence on investor sentiment.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [09:17]: "I think it doesn't matter because it sends a signal about one company doing poorly and one doing really well."

2. BYD Surpasses Tesla in Q3 Revenue

Timestamp: [14:50]

The conversation shifts to the electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting BYD, a Chinese EV manufacturer, overtaking Tesla in Q3 revenue for the first time.

BYD’s Growth: BYD reported a Q3 revenue of $28 billion, a 24% increase from the previous year, surpassing Tesla’s $25 billion.
Challenges Ahead: Despite this achievement, BYD faces potential headwinds from EU-imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, which could reach up to 45%.
Scott’s Analysis: He praises BYD for cracking the cost challenge in EVs, suggesting that their innovative approach gives them a substantial edge over Tesla, which he feels needs a "freshening up" to maintain its market position.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [14:50]: "There's just no getting around it. BYD as far as I can tell, is kicking Tesla's ass."

3. Comcast’s Strategic Spinoff of Cable Networks

Timestamp: [17:12]

Next, Kara and Scott examine Comcast's strategic move to spin off its cable networks, including MSNBC, CNBC, Bravo, and USA.

Spinoff Details: Announced by Comcast President Mike Kavanaugh during the company's earnings call, the new entity would be owned by Comcast shareholders and remain well-capitalized.
Market Reaction: Comcast's shares rose by over 3% following the announcement, indicating positive investor reception.
Scott’s Perspective: He interprets the spinoff as a sign of structural decline within Comcast's conglomerate model. By separating volatile cable assets from its core business, Comcast aims to streamline operations and present a clearer, more focused company profile to investors.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [17:12]: "It's typically the sign of a company in decline that doesn't think they're getting the credit they deserve."

4. Election Predictions and Poll Analysis

Timestamp: [25:26]

As Election Day approaches, Kara and Scott engage in a robust analysis of the latest polls and predictions.

Current Polls: They discuss the New York Times Sienna poll, which shows Vice President Harris slightly ahead in key swing states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump maintains narrow leads in Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia.
Poll Reliability: Scott humorously critiques poll reliability, emphasizing his distrust of conventional polling methods. He prefers more straightforward, less convoluted polling approaches to gauge election outcomes.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [29:38]: "Well, first off, that's misinformation. My favorite poll is a short one that has an on switch, and then I stick it up my ass."

5. Guest Interview: Dan Harris on Managing Election Anxiety

Timestamp: [43:29]

To address the high levels of stress surrounding the election, Kara and Scott welcome Dan Harris, host of the "10% Happier" podcast, as their guest.

Dan’s Advice: He recommends proactive strategies to manage anxiety, such as taking action to feel more in control. This includes volunteering, engaging in community activities, and fostering quality relationships, which research shows are pivotal for mental well-being.
Mindfulness and Self-Awareness: Dan underscores the importance of mindfulness in regulating stress, advising listeners to become more aware of their mental states and to set healthy boundaries with news consumption to prevent overwhelm.
Personal Insights: Sharing his own experiences with anxiety and panic disorder, Dan highlights techniques like exposure therapy and cognitive restructuring to combat negative thought patterns.

Notable Quotes:

Dan Harris [43:29]: "There's a great expression... action absorbs anxiety."

Dan Harris [46:14]: "Most of that was kind of based in fear. But eventually, a couple years ago, I was able to make the leap and retire and just do this full time."

6. Final Election Thoughts and Predictions

Timestamp: [68:06]

In their concluding segments, Scott and Kara offer their final election predictions and reflections.

Scott’s Prediction: He anticipates a decisive victory for Harris, citing strong fundraising from small donors and effective grassroots canvassing. Additionally, Scott foresees Intel potentially being taken private due to its undervalued status and operational challenges.
Kara’s Perspective: She echoes Scott’s optimism about Harris’s chances, emphasizing the motivational drive among women voters and critiquing Trump’s current campaign missteps, such as underperforming rallies and questionable surrogate endorsements.
Mutual Agreement: Both hosts agree on the importance of avoiding extreme catastrophic views and advocate for a focus on unity and resilience, regardless of the election outcome.

Notable Quotes:

Scott Galloway [68:55]: "I think she's gonna perform better. But I have to tell you, I think he's gonna do everything possible to stay out of jail..."

Kara Swisher [73:56]: "I agree with you, Scott, and I think it is... hoping to kick Trump to the curb finally."

Conclusion

In this episode of "Pivot," Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway provide a comprehensive analysis of current tech and business developments, intertwining them seamlessly with the high-stakes atmosphere of the upcoming U.S. election. Their thoughtful discussion, complemented by expert advice from Dan Harris, offers listeners valuable insights into navigating both market dynamics and personal well-being during turbulent times.

For more in-depth discussions and sharp analyses, subscribe to "Pivot" on your preferred podcast platform and stay informed with New York Magazine and Vox Media’s leading tech and business voices.

Summary

Pivot Podcast Episode Summary: Election Predictions, Comcast Spinoff Plans, and Guest Dan Harris

1. Intel’s Replacement by Nvidia on the Dow Jones Industrial Average

Timestamp: [09:17]

Market Impact: Nvidia saw its stock rise nearly 3% in after-hours trading post-announcement, while Intel experienced a nearly 2% decline the previous week, including a historic $16 billion loss in Q3.
Scott’s Insight: He argues that Intel's replacement signals mismanagement and contrasts it with historical examples like Time Warner's decline. Scott emphasizes that such changes highlight the varying performances of major tech firms and their influence on investor sentiment.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [09:17]: "I think it doesn't matter because it sends a signal about one company doing poorly and one doing really well."

2. BYD Surpasses Tesla in Q3 Revenue

Timestamp: [14:50]

The conversation shifts to the electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting BYD, a Chinese EV manufacturer, overtaking Tesla in Q3 revenue for the first time.

BYD’s Growth: BYD reported a Q3 revenue of $28 billion, a 24% increase from the previous year, surpassing Tesla’s $25 billion.
Challenges Ahead: Despite this achievement, BYD faces potential headwinds from EU-imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, which could reach up to 45%.
Scott’s Analysis: He praises BYD for cracking the cost challenge in EVs, suggesting that their innovative approach gives them a substantial edge over Tesla, which he feels needs a "freshening up" to maintain its market position.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [14:50]: "There's just no getting around it. BYD as far as I can tell, is kicking Tesla's ass."

3. Comcast’s Strategic Spinoff of Cable Networks

Timestamp: [17:12]

Next, Kara and Scott examine Comcast's strategic move to spin off its cable networks, including MSNBC, CNBC, Bravo, and USA.

Spinoff Details: Announced by Comcast President Mike Kavanaugh during the company's earnings call, the new entity would be owned by Comcast shareholders and remain well-capitalized.
Market Reaction: Comcast's shares rose by over 3% following the announcement, indicating positive investor reception.
Scott’s Perspective: He interprets the spinoff as a sign of structural decline within Comcast's conglomerate model. By separating volatile cable assets from its core business, Comcast aims to streamline operations and present a clearer, more focused company profile to investors.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [17:12]: "It's typically the sign of a company in decline that doesn't think they're getting the credit they deserve."

4. Election Predictions and Poll Analysis

Timestamp: [25:26]

As Election Day approaches, Kara and Scott engage in a robust analysis of the latest polls and predictions.

Current Polls: They discuss the New York Times Sienna poll, which shows Vice President Harris slightly ahead in key swing states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump maintains narrow leads in Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia.
Poll Reliability: Scott humorously critiques poll reliability, emphasizing his distrust of conventional polling methods. He prefers more straightforward, less convoluted polling approaches to gauge election outcomes.

Notable Quote:

Scott Galloway [29:38]: "Well, first off, that's misinformation. My favorite poll is a short one that has an on switch, and then I stick it up my ass."

5. Guest Interview: Dan Harris on Managing Election Anxiety

Timestamp: [43:29]

To address the high levels of stress surrounding the election, Kara and Scott welcome Dan Harris, host of the "10% Happier" podcast, as their guest.

Dan’s Advice: He recommends proactive strategies to manage anxiety, such as taking action to feel more in control. This includes volunteering, engaging in community activities, and fostering quality relationships, which research shows are pivotal for mental well-being.
Mindfulness and Self-Awareness: Dan underscores the importance of mindfulness in regulating stress, advising listeners to become more aware of their mental states and to set healthy boundaries with news consumption to prevent overwhelm.
Personal Insights: Sharing his own experiences with anxiety and panic disorder, Dan highlights techniques like exposure therapy and cognitive restructuring to combat negative thought patterns.

Notable Quotes:

Dan Harris [43:29]: "There's a great expression... action absorbs anxiety."

Dan Harris [46:14]: "Most of that was kind of based in fear. But eventually, a couple years ago, I was able to make the leap and retire and just do this full time."

6. Final Election Thoughts and Predictions

Timestamp: [68:06]

In their concluding segments, Scott and Kara offer their final election predictions and reflections.

Scott’s Prediction: He anticipates a decisive victory for Harris, citing strong fundraising from small donors and effective grassroots canvassing. Additionally, Scott foresees Intel potentially being taken private due to its undervalued status and operational challenges.
Kara’s Perspective: She echoes Scott’s optimism about Harris’s chances, emphasizing the motivational drive among women voters and critiquing Trump’s current campaign missteps, such as underperforming rallies and questionable surrogate endorsements.
Mutual Agreement: Both hosts agree on the importance of avoiding extreme catastrophic views and advocate for a focus on unity and resilience, regardless of the election outcome.

Notable Quotes:

Scott Galloway [68:55]: "I think she's gonna perform better. But I have to tell you, I think he's gonna do everything possible to stay out of jail..."

Kara Swisher [73:56]: "I agree with you, Scott, and I think it is... hoping to kick Trump to the curb finally."