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Scott Galloway
For the show comes from the new season of Crucible Moments, a podcast from Sequoia Capital. What is a Crucible Moment? It's a turning point where we face a tough decision and our response can shape the rest of our lives. These decisions happen in business too, and Sequoia Capital's podcast Crucible Moments gives you a behind the scenes look, asking founders of some of the world's most important tech companies like YouTube, DoorDash, Reddit, and more. To reflect on those critical junctures that define who they are today. Tune into season two of Crucible Moments today. You can also catch up on season one at cruciblemoments.com or wherever you listen to podcasts. Support for the show comes from Chevrolet Artificial intelligence Smart houses, Electric vehicles. We are living in the future, so why not make 2024 the year you go fully electric with Chevy, the all electric 2025 Equinox EV. LT starts around 34,000 dol $995 Equinox EV, a vehicle you know, value you'd expect and a dealer right down the street. Go EV without changing a thing. Learn more at chevy.com Equinox EV the manufacturer's suggested retail price excludes tax, title, license, dealer fees and optional equipment. Dealer sets final price.
Kara Swisher
I just, I really. Today is not a day to be late. Oh, you're wearing a liberty hat. Leave it on. Oh, he's being a lesbian. Okay, put on your earphones. We gotta go. Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher and it's Cocktober. No, Scott, we'll get to that in a second. Welcome.
Scott Galloway
What?
Kara Swisher
Get it? That's Arnold Palmer Cocktober Surprise. Get it?
Scott Galloway
Oh, yeah. I asked for an Arnold Palmer stiff yesterday at Jack's wife Frida, and they didn't get it. They're like, what? What do you mean stiff? I mean, it's a joke.
Kara Swisher
I can't drink that now. It's so sad. We'll get to it. We'll get to it. We're going to get to it.
Scott Galloway
Well, lesbians have always had a thing.
Kara Swisher
Exactly. I've always loved an Arnold Palmer. You're a lesbian now?
Scott Galloway
No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm a power lesbian.
Kara Swisher
Oh, right. Okay.
Scott Galloway
I am a power lesbian. I have never been to a WNBA game. And because I know Kara Swisher, this total power lesbian couple, Leanne and Pia. I won't say their last names because for security reasons, I think they're very high profile, but they know who they are. I get to go. This is what it means to be friends with Kara Swisher. My first WNBA game. I go to the last game of the finals on the floor. Spike Lee came by and said hi to all the important people. He totally ignored me. Spike, I think your movies are overrated. No offense. But anyways. And then I'm sitting there watching this amazing thing. We have half time. I go and meet these other. This really interesting woman and her partner. She's an Alphabet. She's a vc, by the way. Not that I noticed, but both kind of crazy hot. Not that I noticed.
Kara Swisher
Okay.
Scott Galloway
Other people. I got the sounds.
Guest Speaker
All right.
Kara Swisher
We don't mind.
Scott Galloway
And then I literally, when I was on a plane once, the Dalai Lama was there and he came up to this woman and child and he blessed them with the flowing robes and everything in the middle of the game. Megan Rapinoe.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, I made her go over is.
Scott Galloway
Like waving and high. And I said, leanne, I think Megan Rapinoe saying hi. And she looked over and she's like, no, she's waving at you. And I waved back and she jumped up and waved to be waved at at Game 5 of the WNBA by Megan Rapinoe.
Kara Swisher
That is suburb.
Scott Galloway
That is literally like being blessed by the llama. Yes, I am officially a paralesbian.
Kara Swisher
You are.
Scott Galloway
I am the new fraternity. Joey Bagadonuts, representing the lesbian community. What is up with these gay men in tech who are threatened by us? Carol, I don't know what is up.
Kara Swisher
I don't know, but I'm so glad I did. Megan texted me. She got there late and I said, pay attention to Scott. Give him some love and stuff like that. And I was thrilled you were there. I finally, after all your hemming and hawing, you went. I thought you were going to ghost the lesbians, which would have been the end of your life.
Scott Galloway
No, no, no, no, no. I'm dumb. I'm not crazy.
Kara Swisher
Aubrey Plaza was there. There were celebrities aplenty. It was like a rock. Tell us why you now like the NBA, Please.
Scott Galloway
Look, I love the sport. I love watching the energy. The electricity was just fucking Amazing. But the thing that struck me is that I've been thinking a lot about how much young people seem to dislike America. And I think it's because our prosperity is not evenly distributed. I do think young people have it more difficult than we had it. But I also think social media and algo actors on these platforms or trying to convince them that America is a lot worse than it actually is. And last night was a lesson for me. And I just don't think people, especially young people, appreciate how far we've come. I used to go to a lot of. My dad was a salesperson for ITT om Scott, so he used to get a lot of tickets to stuff. So I used to go to Rams games. Sporting events when I were a kid were basically corporate VPs. It was all corporate and all wealthy white men. That's it. Those were the only people at sporting groups. When James Harris became the first black quarterback who played for the Rams, why was he the first black quarterback? Because the assumption was in all sports that black people did not have leadership skills and couldn't be in the brainy position. And of course, now every amazing quarterback or near every amazing quarterback is non white. At that game last night, it was people. I thought it was going to be this big lesbian fest. No, it wasn't. There was a healthy gay contingent there, but there were straight people there. There were people of all races. I don't want to say all income backgrounds, but even on the dance floor, it wasn't a bunch of ridiculously hot white women with huge eyelashes. They had something called the Senior Liberty. And it was a dance troupe.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, they were fun.
Scott Galloway
Of 60 to 85 year olds. I mean, that shit is wonderful.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, it was wonderful. It's got a great energy.
Scott Galloway
So that stadium. That stadium is not only America, but I just don't think young people realize how far we've come.
Kara Swisher
I know. It was fun. It's actually fun. Did you go to the. To the food? The special area of eating.
Scott Galloway
Oh, all of it. And they have a little candy room and everything. I was like, it's ridiculous. Shoving, you know, Mike's candy in my pants and my Charleston shoe, which is always a. You know.
Kara Swisher
I am so thrilled you did that. I really am. I feel like.
Scott Galloway
Your friends are lovely.
Kara Swisher
Thank you. Your new name is Barbara. As a lesbian. Okay, Barbara.
Scott Galloway
Babs. Just call me Babs.
Kara Swisher
Babs, that's your new name.
Scott Galloway
Papa, can you hear me?
Kara Swisher
Yeah.
Scott Galloway
Anyway, with all the plastic surgery I've got lined up, I tell them I went in, my doctor gives Me buttocks. He says, all right, what do you want to look like? And I'm like, I want to look like Barbra Streisand in the first Yentl.
Kara Swisher
Okay. I don't know what to say. All right, we've got to think of more lesbian things for you to do, but I am thrilled you did that. I'm glad you liked it. Did you see the owner?
Scott Galloway
Oh, yeah, she was there. Sy. What's her name?
Kara Swisher
Sy. Claire. Sy.
Scott Galloway
Sy.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. Claire Syria.
Scott Galloway
She gave a speech at the end. But, yeah, I'm now clearly the representative for the entire lesbian community. I think I've.
Kara Swisher
My work is done. My work is done.
Scott Galloway
I'm at the top of the heap.
Kara Swisher
Here you are. Anyway, we've got a lot to get. I'm thrilled. We've got a lot to get to today, including increasing tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft and Elon Musk's million dollar giveaway, which raising legal questions. A lot of them. Plus our friends at Pivot are Chantal Fernandez from the Cut and Lauren Sherman from Puck. They've written a new book which is pretty interesting. Selling Sexy Victoria's Secret and the Unraveling of an American Icon. They just had a new Victoria's Secret show, but previous owners were all wrapped up with the Epstein and all kinds of nonsense. It's a really interesting business story of everything.
Scott Galloway
Oh, wait, you had a big moment.
Kara Swisher
I did. I was on one of my favorite people, Desi Lydic, who's not a lesbian, but we all wish you were on the Daily Show. Let's listen to a clip. I think most startups would probably say that they get into it because they.
Guest Speaker
Want to change the world, they want.
Kara Swisher
To make this a better place, they want to help society.
Guest Speaker
But these companies meta, Google, Amazon.
Kara Swisher
Do you think that there's some disillusionment that what they think that they're doing is beneficial? Oh, I never thought they thought that. I just think they just said that along with the fact they'd wear hoodies, but they'd be cashmere hoodies, so they'd cost 600. Oh, so you know. So anyway, it was fun. She was great. That's a great show. I have to say, they do a great job. Louis came with me. Ivy, his girlfriend Amanda came up. We had such a ball.
Scott Galloway
The thing that I noticed about that show, in addition to Jon Stewart and the producers have done an amazing job, just like fostering and maturing all these amazing young comedians is the biggest contrast I noticed because I think I know you know this. I've also been on, but the audience. The audience is young, cool people. Quite frankly, when I've gone to other big shows, it's like they empty out the seniors home because they don't have a lot to do. This was people with a lot. Young people. Funny. The thing they do after is really cool.
Kara Swisher
Yep. They ask questions.
Scott Galloway
Yeah, it's a cool scene. It's how I imagine the crowd at SNL would be.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. Great snacks, too. Fantastic snacks. Louis took.
Scott Galloway
She's a star, too. She's really impressive.
Kara Swisher
She wore sunglasses for me. She's just a lovely person and so funny. I think she's one of the. So many. Ronnie Chang is good. They're all good. Jordan Klepper and the other guy.
Scott Galloway
Yeah, they're fantastic. All of them are really good.
Kara Swisher
Handsome guy. I love him.
Scott Galloway
The handsome guy.
Kara Swisher
Yeah.
Scott Galloway
Big handsome guy.
Kara Swisher
He's very funny. Anyway, speaking of handsome guys, Disney will name a new chief executive to replace Bob Iger in 2026. Handsome Bob. Four division leaders at Disney's are hoping to grab Iger's spot. They are. I think it's Dana Walden, Disney's top television executive. She's also a very close friend of Takamala Harris's. Josh D'Amaro, who runs the theme parks and video games. Alan Bergman, who is Disney's movie chief. I met him back in the AOL days. And Jimmy Pitaro, who I also know from Yahoo, who runs espn. The announcement came along with a board shakeup. James P. Gorman, the veteran Wall street banker who joined Dis Brother this year, will become chairman. He's an Iger affiliate, I would say. Any idea who's going to be the next Bob Iger?
Scott Galloway
Yeah. Sense was. I don't know. But this was overdue. I think it was a mistake for Bob to go back. And I think a lot of these companies that have had real trouble in the markets, I think churn is a good thing. And as much as I really like Bob Iger and think he's a great executive, I think we need to clear out this generation and bring in a new generation of people who grew up with different mediums, understand the technologies. I don't know amongst these four, I don't know any of them. If you were to pick someone.
Kara Swisher
I know Jimmy. Jimmy's got digital experience, that's for sure.
Scott Galloway
Right. I can't imagine the person, but quite frankly, I can't imagine. I mean, here's the bottom line is that it's so much about luck, like which division you're on and hopefully your division is growing ESPN right now is a problem. It's a bug, not a feature. And if he can turn it around, that's great. But the theme parks and video games, just from a sector standpoint, that guy is going to have an easier time looking good at the right moment than the person who's running espn.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. What about an outside person? Name an outside person who you'd like to see it. Run it.
Scott Galloway
God, that's really interesting.
Kara Swisher
Besides you and I, which would be fantastic.
Scott Galloway
I don't know. I think the most talented guy on the sidelines right now is Jeff Zucker.
Kara Swisher
Yeah.
Scott Galloway
But I don't, I don't know. I don't, I don't have. I don't have a vision for. Somebody would come in. Do you have any ideas?
Kara Swisher
No, I don't actually. Which is where we are, right? Like who is like a. You know, years ago Sheryl Sandberg was bandied about for that job. It's got to be someone who does can deal with talent and also Wall Street. It's a really tough job.
Scott Galloway
I know who they'd like to get, but they can't get them.
Kara Swisher
What? Who?
Scott Galloway
Ted Sarandos.
Kara Swisher
Oh, yeah, you're right.
Scott Galloway
I mean, you realize Ted.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, we're gonna talk about them in a second.
Scott Galloway
Worked in a video store for years. I mean the guy just has a great gut for content. He's a brilliant businessman. He's humble, he's amazing with talent. He obviously understands a new age. Now a lot of talent would say that he single handedly is starching the margin from talent and absorbing it up until to netfl. But he's a brilliant businessman and I don't know if you know this, but I bought Netflix at 10 bucks a share. That's the good news. I sold it at 8 and it's now at 700. I literally want to find a time machine so I can go back and kill me and then kill myself. That would be my gulf stream right now. Anyway.
Kara Swisher
All right.
Scott Galloway
I'm not bitter too.
Kara Swisher
I have a name. Donna Langley at Universal. I think she's presided over a lot of really big successes. Elegant, beautiful person, very sharp. Everybody likes her, doing really well. There's, you know, she's someone that's really, I think is just well liked and sharp as a friggin tack. I would put her in the list. Yeah. Anyway, it'll probably be someone internally. I'm guessing either Josh or Dana Walden. One of those.
Scott Galloway
I don't know.
Kara Swisher
She's been around. She was at Fox, remember She's been around the block. I think, you know, probably her. And if Harris wins, she gets a big up. I think I would suspect she gets a big up. They are very actual good friends. Speaking of Ted Sarandos, Netflix shares are up 7% after reporting Q3 earnings. The streamer beat expectations on earnings per share and revenue and saw a 35% quarter over quarter jump for its ad supported membership tier. Ad tier accounted for over 50% of signups. That's crazy. They've made it work. The company said it expects Q4 revenue to rise 14% to 10.13 billion and expects a 12% growth revenue in 2025. They've also got hit shows all over the Nobody wants this. This little rom com is doing really well. All kinds of shows. I think Apple's keeping up with a couple of their shows and some others. There's good shows all over the streaming environment right now. This is now a good strategy. Netflix is one step ahead of them at all times. You know, in everything.
Scott Galloway
They're running away with it or they. Or past sense. They've ran away from it.
Kara Swisher
They keep running.
Scott Galloway
I mean, there's a couple things that struck me about Netflix. The first is for the first time in their history, over the last two years, they haven't increased their content budget, which is them saying, we've kind of won and don't need to because they have the money, they have the cheap capital with their stock price. But they've sort of, because of the writer strike, transferring power to people who already had a large content bank. And the reality is, none of us were thinking, I'm going to unsubscribe from Netflix because my content bank, it's shrunk from 24 months of shit. I need to get to 22 months. And so their stock went just apeshit while everyone else went down. But also for the first time, more than half their content now is being produced outside of the US and while Los Angeles will never be Detroit because it has In N Out Burger Los.
Kara Swisher
Angeles, production's way down. But go ahead.
Scott Galloway
The spending on content is actually up 2% this year. So it's basically flat, but it's moving from LA to Albuquerque to Dublin, Ireland to Madrid to South Korea. So basically, Netflix is globalizing the production or the supply chain of the content industry, and it's taking a real toll on the existing creative community. And then you add in the fact that Netflix is only the second largest streamer. They think they're the largest. They're not. YouTube is the largest streamer. And then you pull additional 10 or 15 billion a year in oxygen out from the incremental growth from YouTube and TikTok. And this industry is just being. It's being reshaped around Netflix, YouTube and TikTok.
Kara Swisher
That's true.
Scott Galloway
And the existing players are just getting killed.
Kara Swisher
They're just floundering. They have some good shows. There are good shows on, I think, but, like, they've got right now, Nobody Wants Us, which is the Zeitgeist show right now, which is about a hot rabbi, essentially. This monster is a Lyle and Eric Menendez started. They might get out of jail with the attention this has brought them. You know, they've got, obviously their old things like Love is Blind. They got Stranger Things, et cetera, et cetera. And. And I think what's really interesting, I mean, they've got. They just like one after the next after the next, and some of them are just okay. But you see big celebrities like Halle Berry, like, all these big names are in there, you know, in all the streamers, which is interesting. But then they have things like you and yellow jackets and the Lincoln Lawyer, these shows that are. And the Diplomat, they're bringing that back for us, you know, And I don't.
Scott Galloway
Know if you heard, but there is an original scripted drama about big tech that literally had every streamer bidding on it. And they chose to go with Netflix.
Kara Swisher
I think that says something you did. Excited to see how. I think you picked exactly the right place. I think you've gonna hit it.
Scott Galloway
Oh, that was a tough one. I absolutely love hbo. That was a tough one.
Kara Swisher
I know, but I think it's right. And this ad support, by the way.
Scott Galloway
I had absolutely no influence over who we went with.
Kara Swisher
I know, but I think it's good. And it's good.
Scott Galloway
I'm just kind of the tech guy. They.
Kara Swisher
I'm going to interview you when it premieres at the Paris Theater, which Netflix owns. They just. That's where I interviewed Bill.
Guest Speaker
Paris.
Scott Galloway
Can we do it at the Cannes Film Festival? I want to go with.
Kara Swisher
No, we're going to do the Paris Theater.
Scott Galloway
Juliette Binoche.
Kara Swisher
Binoche. Binoche.
Scott Galloway
I would like. Or Julia Armand. I see myself with either of those.
Kara Swisher
People because they don't see themselves.
Scott Galloway
Rosamund pike intimidates. She's too crazy hot.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, she's gonna ignore you completely.
Scott Galloway
I need to go with an 80s sex.
Kara Swisher
Oh, hello. She'll go like that. Oh, hello. I love her in all the Bond movies and stuff. Okay, let's get to our first big story. Sam Altman once called OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft, the best bromance in tech. But that love is starting to fade, according to a report in the New York Times, which some at Microsoft are pushing back on. To me recently, I just. I got a lot of texts. Financial pressure on OpenAI and concerns about its stability have contributed to a tension between the two companies. It's super expensive. OpenAI employees have also complained that Microsoft is not providing enough compute power. That's going to be a normal complaint. Some of the tension is also tied to Microsoft's hedging its AI bets and spending $650 million to hire Mustafa Suleiman and most of the employees from Inflection. Sam Altman and several OpenAI executives reportedly not happy about that move. When I interviewed Mustafa earlier this month, I asked him about the team's relationship with OpenAI. Let's listen to that exchange. What is the relationship between them? Are you competitors? How does it. No, no, no. We're siblings. You know, sometimes siblings squabble, sometimes they.
Chantal Fernandez
Squabble, but largely we're on the same.
Kara Swisher
Team, you know, so.
Scott Galloway
And that's amazing for us.
Kara Swisher
Like, we collaborate closely with them on.
Scott Galloway
Everything from, you know, the research side.
Kara Swisher
To core infrastructure and so on.
Scott Galloway
Obviously, we build competing products, right?
Chantal Fernandez
And I think that's healthy and a natural part of things.
Scott Galloway
And so.
Kara Swisher
So it's a good relationship. Do you buy that? And what do you think about this situation? Are these companies stuck with each other or could they actually go their separate ways?
Scott Galloway
No, they're too inextricably linked. The agreement is that I think up until 100 billion, Microsoft gets 49 or 51% of the profits. They're like Siamese twins, but that doesn't mean they don't like each other. And at some point, someone takes out a steak knife and threatens to cut the corpus in half. They're so pissed off at the other. The issue, I find, with stuff like this, and it's the most. In my opinion, the most challenging thing in business is compensation. And imagine you're this brilliant young systems engineer or AI developer at Microsoft, and you're working and there's three of you on your team, or five of you or 20 of them, and you're working with the team at OpenAI, and you collaborate and integration. The folks at OpenAI who've been there three years say you've both been there at your respective firms three years, right? They're doing the same thing. They're working together, similar skill set. And the folks at OpenAI, their options are worth $40 million. And the folks at Microsoft, their options are worth 400,000. It's like, it reminds me of Bain consulting firm started a division called Bain Capital and they lifted, and Mitt Romney, I think, was the founder. They lifted a few of the best and brightest consultants out and all of a sudden, hey, remember Lisa who used to sit next to us and try and tell Mars how to, if they should go into Thailand or to tell the, you know, to tell the Libyan government how to improve their image even though they're murderous. Lisa is now at Bain Capital and I heard she just, she got $4 million off her latest deal and we're making 400,000. So I always go to the money. I would bet the friction here is different levels of compensation between people working together. I would imagine that causes a lot of dissent within Microsoft.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, that's a really smart point. Well, there's also questions about Microsoft's equity stake and governance rights when OpenAI becomes a for profit company. Both Microsoft and OpenAI have hired investment banks to advise them on this process. So that's also going to be another issue.
Scott Galloway
But you can imagine Microsoft like, we're a $3 trillion company, you're $150 billion company, and we've got this brilliant young man. It would be impossible for Sam Altman not to have a little bit of a God complex right now and think, you know, my dick is 11 inches even if it's not. And Microsoft is used to a command. Microsoft is used to a command and control structure. And as far as Microsoft is concerned, it's like, we're on top, bitches. We invest a lot of money. We've been very supportive here and the folks, and so they probably think, okay, we just need to diversify a little bit away from a company we can't totally control. And then OpenAI says, wait, you're diversifying but you want us to coordinate, not compete. I imagine there's tension and flare ups and border skirmishes everywhere here.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. And of course, did we get enough resources? Are we getting enough resources? Anyway, it's a difficult thing. Meanwhile, former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati is reportedly raising funds from VCs for a new AI startup. Of course she is. And as did the previous people who left, like Ilya Sutskever, Perplexity is also now in funding talks looking to double its valuation to more than 8 billion competitive threats. This seems like everyone who worked for OpenAI is starting their own company, the Safety Company, even though they're raising an enormous amount of money. Dow Jones in The York Post, by the way, filed a lawsuit against Perplexity for copyright infringements. That's the company that a lot of people are targeting. This is just going to happen. This funding is going to continue. Correct?
Scott Galloway
I mean, the bottom line is once you have a 100x return like this and the future looks bigger and brighter and it's one step away from the best performing stock in history. Nvidia. Everyone's looking for places to put money in AI and why not go with the guys who aren't at 150, they're at 40. I personally think that if we're talking about the LLMs, I think that OpenAI is basically running away with it.
Kara Swisher
The Netflix. The Netflix of the sector.
Scott Galloway
That's right. And Netflix was the Amazon of media. And OpenAI is going to raise a ton of money, pull away from it. I think Anthropic and Claude, with their relationship with Amazon, will be kind of the lift to OpenAI's Uber, maybe a little stronger. The Pepsi to their Coke. Perplexity has a really nice brand positioning. It's seen as AI search, which is brilliant brand positioning. I think the rest of these folks, especially at the money they're raising it. My advice to any of these companies raising would be to slow your roll around valuation, because this is the hard part. When I was raising money for Red Envelope, I knew the froth was incredible and I went out, I raised money at a valuation of 120 million. And the problem was within about a year post 2000, it was worth 40 to 60. And it just creates all sorts of dysfunction at the board level.
Kara Swisher
And also with employees who are all like, I'm rich.
Scott Galloway
Well, I'm not. And then you have some people in the boardroom who are angry. I'm on a board right now. And the way their view of the CEO is entirely based on when they invested. The people who invested recently are like, what the fuck is going on here? We don't have any affinity for this guy's idiot fucking decisions. And the early investors are like, oh, cut her some slack. And I'm like, well, that's because you're up 10x on your investment. I get why you are very forgiving. But the folks who invested last year are probably down 30% anyways. It's mismatch durations.
Kara Swisher
Smart advice. They won't take it. They will grab as much.
Scott Galloway
Well, they sort of have. I mean, this is a tough one because they sort of have a responsibility to protect, serve existing shareholders and not take the dilution. But if I look at, you know, that graph that shows time to mass adoption. You know, TV took 10 or 20 years, then the fax took five years, then Instagram took three years. The cycle time to mass adoption of a 10x product is getting shorter and shorter. And unfortunately, that also means the time to Monopoly or duopoly. And I think that duopoly is already formed here. I think it's open video, the Netflix hub.
Kara Swisher
Anyway, we'll see what happens. I think they're going to raise money and they're not going to listen to a very good piece of advice you just gave, actually. Also, for the latest episode of on with Kara Swisher, I interviewed Robert Downey Jr. He's starring in the Broadway play McNeil, which gets into some ethics and morality issues around AI. I asked him about the implications for Hollywood, who is doing some lawsuits, some deals, et cetera. Let's listen. So, Robert, these images are deep fakes of you and others. They use GenReva to create these digital replicas. But Tony Stark died in the endgame. They could resurrect him without you existing. Now, given how much body work you have. And do you have a writer to protect your likeness, something you want in your contracts going forward?
Guest Speaker
I'm not worried about them hijacking my character's soul because there's like three or four guys and gals who make all.
Kara Swisher
The decisions there anyway.
Scott Galloway
And they would never do that that to me, with or without me.
Kara Swisher
But future executives certainly will.
Guest Speaker
Well, you're right.
Scott Galloway
And I would like to hear state that I intend to sue all future executives just on spec.
Kara Swisher
You'll be dead, Robert.
Scott Galloway
I know, but my law firm will.
Guest Speaker
Still be very active.
Kara Swisher
It was an interesting discussion. He's a very sharp cookie. This is a really interesting show. But, you know, it is interesting because he has an enormous body of work.
Scott Galloway
And, oh, one of the great actors.
Kara Swisher
Of our time, really. He won the Oscar, you know.
Scott Galloway
Chaplin, right?
Kara Swisher
No, he won it for Oppenheimer. But it was interesting because he really does think about these things. But there is. It'll be interesting to see what happens to actors like him going forward because he's coming back, by the way, as Dr. Doom. He's becoming a villain. Which is interesting because we touched really briefly on Elon and he was sort of like, yeah, that guy, not me. He's not playing me. Because Elon thinks he's Tony Stark, and Tony Stark does not think he is Elon in many ways. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. We come back, Donald Trump's closing arguments. Take a vulgar. That's the word they're using, vulgar. Turn it's penis jokes. Scott and then you're the expert. So we'll talk about it and we'll speak with friends of Pivot, Chantal Fernandez and Lauren Sherman, about the rise and fall of Victoria's Secret. A really fascinating business story.
Scott Galloway
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Kara Swisher
Learn more@citi.com clientstories Scott we're back. With two weeks to go into election Day, the presidential candidates are making their closing arguments in very different ways. Vice President Kamala Harris focused on abortion rights at a rally in Atlanta over the weekend and visited black churches in a push for early voting. Former President Donald Trump had a stage managed photo op at a McDonald's serving for to supporters in a closed place. That was after a rally where he shared a story about golfer Arnold Palmer's penis. By the way, his daughter today said Arnold Palmer did not like Donald Trump and thought that was grotesque. You're the expert on penis jokes, so why don't you. What did you think of this penis joke he made?
Scott Galloway
I don't know. Look, it represents so, all right, the person who wants to be commander in chief and represent us to allies and enemies and to parliaments around the world, you gotta put on a tie. And that is, are you going to church? You got to put on a tie. You're going to a funeral, you got to put on a tie. You want to be president of the United States, you just secure that shit. You acquit yourself and you compose yourself with a certain level of decorum. You are the ultimate statesman, full stop. So that. But at a minimum, it sort of says it just reflects poorly on this person's qualifications to command that role. And I don't like to say this, but I think it's true. I think that is a big part of his appeal because I think for the last 30 or 40 years, politicians stood in front of people and told them whatever they thought they wanted to hear and use PG13 or G rated analogies and language. And people just felt like, like I'm just sick of being lied to.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, but do they want a penis joke like this?
Scott Galloway
Yeah, but I think part of it's part of his appeal care because he's raw. I hate to use this word. He is authentically a crude and coarse person. And there's a certain level of that outrageousness that I think appeals to his base.
Kara Swisher
I don't, I think he seems cognitively disabled. I think this is lack of inhibition. I don't think this was planned. I think, you know, I have heard from people who spend time with him and he is kind of, he is kind of dirty in person, right? Like in privately, he tells dirty jokes and Stuff. I think he's lost his fucking mind. I think he's cognitively deceased and he doesn't have control. And he's not just doing it on Arnold Palmer's penis, which is gross, I think. And I think a lot of independents don't like it much. Didn't like that one. There's one thing to be funny, the other thing that it's just weird and creepy, I think. I'm not so sure it is appealing, this new one.
Scott Galloway
But here's the problem. The strategy works, Gara, because we're talking about this, which people don't really care about. Instead of saying, okay, if he implements tariffs and cuts down on immigration, it's going to be wildly inflationary. And so he'd rather, hey, look over here at my outrageous behavior. The people who don't like him be indignant about it. The people who do like them don't care. Instead of having a thoughtful conversation around policies that would be massive inflationary for America. So, quite frankly, he wins on this stuff.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, it's true. He's willing to go low. When they go low, I go lower, or very low, or subterranean. There's such a contrast in these two candidates. I mean, Jim Gaffigan at one of those dinners was like, if you don't understand the contrast, I don't know what's wrong with you. There's a lot of surrogates out there. Michelle and Barack Obama are both hitting the campaign trail with Harris this week. Liz Cheney is campaigning with the vice president, and Elon Musk is doing town halls in Pennsylvania, engaging in some potentially illegal practices. You've talked about the importance of surrogates. Trump also indicated that Nikki Haley might be joining him on the campaign trail. We'll see. Do you think they're effective at this point in the game?
Scott Galloway
Well, first off, actors traditionally have shown they always lean Democratic, whether it's Warren Beatty and McGovern. Actors always seem to. And there isn't a lot of evidence that that helps. I do think it's really powerful to have the Obamas out there. I think Secretary Buttigieg, Governor Shapiro, Governor Whitmer. I think these are powerful, articulate surrogates. And if you look at kind of the team, it's Kellyanne Conway and Ted Nugent. On the Trump side, it's just.
Kara Swisher
And Elon.
Scott Galloway
Yeah, and Elon. And just going to Elon for a second, the same issue is there. I saw everyone with their hair on fire, citing election law, saying, just so people don't know.
Kara Swisher
Let me fill them in. Elon is randomly awarding a million dollar daily prize to registered swing voters who sign his pacs petition supporting the first and Second Amendments. Federal law says it's a crime to pay people with the intention of inducing a reward and to cast a vote or get registered. But election law experts are split over whether his actions cross the line. Let me just play this. Speaking of Shapiro, Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro was asked about the legality of the giveaway by Kristen Welker on Meet the Press. Let's listen.
Chantal Fernandez
When you start flowing this kind of money into politics, I think it raises serious questions that folks may want to.
Scott Galloway
Take a look at.
Kara Swisher
So you think it might not be legal? Yes or no?
Chantal Fernandez
I think it's something that law enforcement.
Scott Galloway
Could take a look at.
Chantal Fernandez
I'm not the Attorney General anymore of Pennsylvania, I'm the governor.
Scott Galloway
But it does raise some serious questions.
Kara Swisher
See, I think this is just risk assessment by Elon. Now they're not going to come after him. And if Trump wins, it won't matter, his allies argue, because he's not directly paying for registration but for a petition signature. It's not illegal. It's very typical of him. This a very typical risk he would take easily, including attacking Dominion systems, which I think is probably not a great risk to necessarily take. But go ahead, finish what you were saying about him.
Scott Galloway
It all comes down to incentives and the algebra of deterrence. The whole point of our criminal justice system is that criminals do the math or when you're about to commit a crime, you do a math and it's the following. The likelihood I'm caught times the potential penalty has to be greater than the potential upside. And one of the biggest problem that ails our society is in certain key sectors and components of our economic system. The algebra of deterrence is all fucked up. And I'll give you a couple very three stark examples. If I'm meta and I know I sit on top of research that is showing that there is a direct correlation between usage of my platform and teen depression and self cutting and I continue to engage in this or I violate my consent decree and I knowingly violate my consent decree. I know that the likelihood I get caught, that delay and the size of the fine are vastly smaller than the upside of continuing to break the law in taxation. All really wealthy people have an incentive to be so fucking aggressive with their taxes because their taxes are so complicated and the IRS has been till Biden so underfunded that the likelihood you'll get caught and the penalty are vastly overwhelmed by the amount of money you're going.
Kara Swisher
To save whether they can come get you and whether they can.
Scott Galloway
Yeah. By being incredibly aggressive on your taxes. And now let's go to Musk. Who gives a shit if it's illegal? They're not going to, they're not gonna put him in jail. They're not gonna say to Trump, all of our election laws are the following. Lie, cheat, break the law, get in office, and then it'll be embarrassing and the election commission will fine you and they'll shame your election, your campaign manager and you're still the fucking senator. So the incentives until they say, until there's some sort of real risk that they can shut down, for example, all your media spending if they say, okay, if this guy engages in this, he could go to jail. Or the campaign has to stop all media spending. Like you could get an injunction if it's really blatant. What incentive is there for Musk not to do this?
Kara Swisher
Yeah, I agree. I think everyone's like, can you believe I was been asked to be on. I was like, he doesn't care. He's not going to pay. If Trump wins, he's scot free. This is a scot free risk that he takes. And if he loses, she's gonna have a hard time going after him and she probably won't. Right. And so I think our laws, especially election laws, do not anticipate shameless fucks. Like, they just don't. And this is Trump. And this is, you know, as you're saying with the penis joke, it's just, I don't think, I think, I think a lot of women, woof, yuck you. And I agree with you paying attention to him, but I think it brings to question whether he's cognitively disabled. And that's a negative that is showing up on poll after poll after poll. Is, is he Biden too dirty? Biden, essentially. And those numbers are showing some real resonance. We were showing off some stats about that. Is he too old? And then therefore you're voting for J.D. vance, who is paid for by Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, essentially. So I do think it's a risk for Musk to take and he will take it because it will be advantaged. And, and if she wins, I think the risk will be problematic for him but not fatal for him. You know, he'll just behave. Although saying she hates Christians and stuff like that shows that he's really, he's also mentally has some mental problems. I think the real quiet winner in this is Peter Thiel and I think he will Take down all of them. Because he quietly, he's very sharp. He sits behind the scenes. He and Elon did not get along before this, by the way, at all. In a way that was significant. So I suspect if Trump wins, there's going to be one ugly. There's going to be one ugly fight going on among those people.
Scott Galloway
There's about a 1 in 3 chance if Donald Trump is reelected, that he dies in office. Just based on his age and his body mass index. That means there's a guy who was a mediocre entrepreneur, VC at best, served four years in the Marines, which he should be honored for, got elected to Senate, what, two years ago, and this guy is bought and paid for by Peter Thiel. It's not his service in the Marines. It's not. He's a smart guy. It's not his book. It's not any of that. There's two reasons that Senator Vance could be a heartbeat from presidency and basically the president. There's two reasons. The first is Peter, the second is Teo.
Kara Swisher
Yep, that's the one I'm watching. You know, I think Elon's in more trouble in a Trump presidency than Kamala Harris. I think he's got issues and, you know, Democratic issues of investigation and regulatory. There is going to be an ugly fight at the top there if Trump wins. I wouldn't want to be Trump. I think he's among some very difficult characters.
Scott Galloway
I didn't see that. That's interesting. I didn't see that because the way I see it, again, it just always, in my opinion, they're not going to along. I'd love to write a book called Incentives. I just want people connect the dots. But here are the incentives. And this is what's so dangerous about not immediately having a gag reflex around a move to autocracy. There's greater incentive to support Trump than Harris if you're famous or you're. Because here's the thing, if you're Elon Musk and you support Trump very, very visibly and Harris is elected, they're not going to, they're not going to punish your company. They're not going to put you in jail. They believe in rule of law.
Kara Swisher
Yep, that's right.
Scott Galloway
Donald Trump is saying, if I'm elected, I'm going to prosecute Google to the full extent. Or Jews. It's your fault if I don't get elected. So all of the incentives are okay. If I root for this clown and he doesn't win, I'm okay. Because the people, the other Side believes in rule of law. They're not going to. They're not going to go after personal predication. But the autocrat might come after me.
Kara Swisher
I think that is what's exactly gonna happen.
Scott Galloway
So say more. What do you mean, Karen?
Kara Swisher
I mean, I think Elon's in more trouble in a Trump presidency. I think he doesn't. He's the one who's sort of. He's got obviously some not cognitive issues. He's, you know, he's really lost his mind in many ways, allegedly. I think Thiel is pulling all the strings here. I just. Peter Thiel is quiet and deadly. Elon Musk is loud and he just reminds me of some of these oligarchs that ended up not living.
Scott Galloway
But the whole point of a democracy, the whole point of having different branches of governments and members of Congress and three branches and a military, a Secretary of Defense that comes from a civilian background, not a military. All of these things are meant to put in place checks and balances. And we're about to. For the first time, I think maybe there's someone else where essentially you have one man, Peter Thiel, who could literally control the president. There is no. Something Peter Thiel will never hear from a vice president or potentially a President Vance. Something he will never hear is no, that's right. Ever.
Kara Swisher
He's the one I'm watching. I'm not watching anything. It's just a ridiculous circus of a person, and I think it'll end badly for him. But Peter Thiel's the one I'm looking at anyway. We'll see. State. Let's bring in our friends. A pivot. Chantal Fernandez is a fashion features writer at the Cut, and Lauren Sherman is Puck's fashion correspondent. Together they've written a new book selling Victoria's Secret and the Unraveling of an American Icon. Welcome, both of you.
Chantal Fernandez
Hi. Thank you for having us.
Guest Speaker
Thanks for having us.
Kara Swisher
The New York Times review puts it, this book is about bras in the same way that Citizen Kane is a movie about. About a sled, which is to say, not at all talk about this, because this is a business story. And for people who don't know, Victoria Secret just started their fashion shows again after very controversial, you know, some of the executives. One particular one, the head of marketing, feels like a sexual harasser, like of the old school. But talk a little bit about what the story you wanted to tell. Why don't we start, Chantal? Yeah.
Chantal Fernandez
Victoria's Secret has been so connected to the zeitgeist for decades. And we really saw it as a window into the American consumer psyche. It's a brand that so many women have had a hate love relationship with, but it was so dominant, really didn't have any meaningful competitors at its peak. And we really wanted to explore how that happened. How did such a tiny boutique come to dominate a really utilitarian category and turn it into a fashion category? And it was also a way to talk about the rise of specialty retail, which Les Wexner, who acquired Victoria's Secret from its original founders and scaled it so impressively. He didn't invent specialty retailing, but he sort of perfected that model. And through telling the story of specialty retail, it's a way to talk about the way that American fashion has evolved since the 1950s in all of these really fascinating ways. And Lauren and I wanted to write this book because there was the Victoria's Secret downfall was really a marketing angle in the media that the angels were out of touch. But it was also, we felt there was a business story there that hadn't been told that really also led to the challenges that that brand had.
Kara Swisher
And Lauren Wexner is a really unusual character. I think he obviously shaped Victoria's Secret and brought it to, like, very similar to what happened at Starbucks. There was an original Starbucks, and then Howard Schultz made it into Starbucks, essentially. And his maxim for the business was, we sell, hope not help. He also was close with Jeffrey Epstein, who reportedly used his ties to him to lure young women. Talk a little bit about him, Lauren.
Guest Speaker
So he was sort of proto, fast fashion. He changed the way we all shop. And I think everything Chantal said, American culture is consumer culture. And he was hugely important in the making of the American mall as, like, a part of society. And he very, very early. His parents were in the trade like many Jewish immigrants. And he very early saw what his parents were doing. They owned a small store and realized, oh, the price value equation of the clothes they're selling isn't right. I could be making things cheaper without brand names. And people would buy them because they would feel like they were better value. So it was all about value, value, value. Pre Wexner owning Victoria's Secret, it was more like a Barney's. There was sets. This is like late 70s, and you could buy a bra and underwear set that was $2,000 there. When he bought it, like all the old executives, the first thing they talked about was the $20 red teddy that he brough. He kind of took the style that the Raymonds, the original founders, created. And Scaled it and made it cheaper and faster. And so he's a very interesting character. His personal life, too, and the relationship he had with Epstein and how much control he gave Epstein over his life. He gave him power of attorney a couple years after they had met. And this is a guy who was very closed off and had really only worked with people he knew since high school. A lot of his first business partners were people he grew up with. So it's a very strange, strange relationship that we get into. And it's sort of their relationship. And the rise and fall of Epstein sort of mirrors the rise and fall of Victoria's Secret. So why?
Kara Swisher
Why with Epstein?
Guest Speaker
I think, you know, there's, like, you could get Psychology 101 here. Wexner is a very shy, closed off person who did not feel comfortable in New York city in the 80s. There's a big New York magazine profile from, I think, 85, where Wexner's sort of like on the scene in the city. And Epstein provided, as everyone knows, he was charismatic. He had a lot of connections, really powerful. People trusted him. And so I think Epstein was sort of a buffer to all these things that made Wexner really uncomfortable and he felt protected by him. He also, you know, as Epstein came in, Wexer's mother, who had been like a very controlling figure in his life. Bella had worked at the company essentially since it started. She sort of receded to the background. Epstein took her role on a board of a charity that they worked on. Like, there were all these things where Epstein's presence allowed him to kind of get rid of. There was this guy, Bob Marawski, who had worked with him since the beginning. They fired him. It allowed him to kind of. He was like a henchman type thing.
Scott Galloway
It's nice to meet you both. So my sense is the Epstein scandal makes for interesting media and articles, but it had almost nothing to do with this downfall. I just don't buy it. I think this is a story of merchandising that missed the mark. And there's been a ton of scandal. The founder of Abercrombie and Fitch did not drape himself in glory. And they've had an unbelievable renaissance. When I think of Les, I think he got something very right and very wrong. He actually was known, specially retail, as the guy that first brought data, like hard data science, to especially retail. At least that's how I remember him. But the whole angels, this unattainable aesthetic, the merchandise, it just kind of like most specialty retail. Isn't this just a story of quite frankly, and it's not sexy, but they just got the product wrong for a really long time. Time.
Chantal Fernandez
Yeah. I think by the time the conversation turned against the angels and it was seen as culturally out of step, they already had a lot of merchandising problems. You know, their. The way that business was structured between E commerce and stores was completely separate. They hadn't invested in E Commerce. There was the rise of the Bralette, you know, that kind of underwire molded cup bra. That was their bread and butter, their highest athleisure.
Kara Swisher
Yeah.
Chantal Fernandez
If, you know, if their activewear had been stronger when all of this happened, they probably wouldn't be in the position they are now.
Guest Speaker
We really pinpoint it to their miss on the Bralette. That's sort of foreshadowing. When the Bralette became really popular in culture about 10, 11 years ago, there were a lot of executives internally who were pushing it. And Wexner in particular was like, no, again, we sell. Hope not help. Our vision of sexy is an underwire bra. Also, underwire bras are more expensive, they have higher margins, and they're harder to make. So we see that as sort of the turning point. That activewear stuff for sure too, and we cover that in the book. But I. I really see the sort of. They really missed the mark on the Bralette and that meant they missed the mark on, like everything that was happening in culture and marketing, which happens to.
Kara Swisher
Many retailers right there. It happens to many. I mean, if you don't get culottes versus pedal pushers, you're fucked. I remember several stores here in the Washington area that I covered retail for seven years, and they missed one thing, especially if they were on trend. But you write about the company ended up falling digitally because they. They had an early website, live streaming these shows. They took advantage of Facebook and Instagram. What happened from your perspective?
Chantal Fernandez
I think Wexner underestimated the power of E commerce. And especially in the 2010s when there were all these direct to consumer startups coming into the space and the technology was really evolving, there wasn't that investment at the company. And there's a great interview that he did around that time saying that smartphones would be a fad and that people would want to shop in person. You know, he saw especially the bra as something that women were going to want to shop in person for. And he felt he was an outlier, like the Apple Store Sephora that would always draw higher than average traffic in the mall. And while there is some truth to that, in Terms of women wanting to try on bras. The convenience of E commerce, obviously, we all know, was something that they needed to invest in, and they really just weren't until really, like, 2019, which is crazy. Crazy.
Scott Galloway
You guys cover retail. I'm curious if you agree with this, but the turnaround that I think doesn't get the attention it receives is Abercrombie and Fitch. When I say we. I was on the board of Urban Outfitters. We could have bought Abercrombie and Fitch for 2 to 500 million just, like five years ago. Now it's got a market cap of 8 billion. Do you think there's any opportunity or likelihood? Victoria's Secret has huge awareness, obviously very strong distribution, or I would imagine a ton of leases, some of which are still pretty good. Do you think that there's any possibility of an Abercrombie, like, turnaround for the firm?
Guest Speaker
Well, Chantal actually did a great profile for New York magazine on the business and what they've done with it. It's a very different business, as, you know, bras and fashion. And Victoria's Secret is going to incorporate more clothing into the business again. Again. But it's not as seasonal of a business. It's more about replenishment. And so it's much smaller. Well, Abercrombie is much smaller than Victoria's Secret, so they're very, very different businesses. And you also. And the distribution that Victoria's Secret has means that it is still giant. It's still a $6 billion year now that that's the product they're shipping. The margin on that is terrible. And it's shrinking. So the business, I see it probably continuing to shrink, shrink, shrink. It's healthy. Probably a 2, $3 billion business, and right now, 6 billion. Too much would be more profitable to be smaller. But I think, yes, I think there's definitely an opportunity for it to have a renaissance. And Abercrombie was really smart that they didn't rely on the old imagery. They used the same building blocks. Jeans, cute tops, sweaters. But they made it modern, and they divorced it from the Bruce Weber of it all. Victoria C. I don't know if they have, like, the three savvy executives in place at this moment. They just got a new CEO. We'll see what she does. But a lot of that credit has to do with Fran Horowitz and seeing her merchandiser and her marketer and the three of them working together and using the data. Right. So it's possible. Right.
Kara Swisher
So. But they just. Victoria's Secret Just Fashion show returned after a six year hiatus in the wake of a MeToo and other controversies. This was supposed to be a reinvention for the brand and the show got mixed reviews at best. One critic called it a relic of another time. What do you think of what they did there and why it did feel weird to see it? Right. And then the competitors, is it Kim Kardashian skims or some of these fash fashion companies? Chantal?
Chantal Fernandez
Yeah, skims, Aerie, Rihanna's brand. Those are some of the main competitors beyond sort of the department, department store brands that don't have much marketing like Waco or Natori. The fashion show I think was interesting. It was an opportunity for them to get a lot of organic media coverage. There was a ton of coverage last week, clips all over social media. I think the lesson from Abercrombie is that there's a lot to be gained in focusing on the product over the fantasy or the marketing and that seems to not be the priority still of Victoria's Secret though, with this show they pushed on the Amazon streaming. A lot of it was shoppable in a way that it never was before and was never part of the strategy before. I think it's hard to say. We'll see how the results are, but I don't think it moved the needle culturally positive or negatively for the brand. And I'm sure they spent a ton of money on it. And they have a new CEO, Hilary super, who came from Rihanna's brand who only started about a month ago, so perhaps her priorities will evolve. And this show was planned long before she was hired, so it's interesting to track. But yeah, I think there was one reaction I thought was really interesting is especially younger people wanted a campier version of the show because that's what they remember from the 2000 and tens. And this show was not that campy. It was more sophisticated. They had the former Vogue Paris editor in chief styling it, Emmanuel Alt. So they were going for that fashiony angle and it doesn't really seem like that's what younger people wanted.
Kara Swisher
Yeah, it felt very Joan Collins.
Scott Galloway
I'm just curious, when you look at the world, especially retail, who do you admire the most? Who do you think is just killing it right now?
Chantal Fernandez
I really love skims. I think it's so interesting the way they've taken the Victoria's Secret playbook and twisted it in subtle but profound ways. I think Jens and Emma Greed, who are the couple behind that, are really sharp merchants and understand again how to mix that focus on product and marketing. The thing about the Kim Kardashian brand, that's a polarizing family as well. But you hear that word of mouth is saying, oh, this product is actually good. And you never hear that about Victoria's Secret. And I think they could engineer that kind of conversation if they focused on it. They have a lot of product. But I think skims has just been. They've been having fun with the Victoria's Secret model and bringing back some of their former angels in a way that Victoria's Secret, I think, has still been sort of in an apologetic era that they seem to be coming out of now with this show, but has been dogging them recently.
Guest Speaker
I think the question for skims is whether or not they only have four or five stores right now. Whether or not they can do retail is important, and having a ton of distribution is important. Tori's Secret has 800 stores. That's way too many. But like a store, what's a store? The value of a store is different now. And so can skims figure out how to make those stores productive? Whether that means people leaving the store and buying stuff online immediately or buying a ton of stuff in store, that's the big question for me on that front. I mean, I would say generally in specialty retail, I think most companies have not figured out how to make the stores productive. They need to exist. But what does that mean? And there are a lot of big questions from me on that end, and there's no exact answer. But the big thing is these stores are a big capital expense. Like, they cost a lot of money, and so how do you make them worth. They need to exist, but how do you make them worthwhile and not erode margins and all that stuff?
Kara Swisher
So, you know, you have machine and the others, Uniqlo and stuff like that, or Muji, they're just fine. They're just, you know. And of course, they have big stores in New York, but not everywhere.
Scott Galloway
Aloe Restoration Hardware, Sephora. There's a bunch of stores that are.
Kara Swisher
Working in the future. How does that look? Because they open and close very quickly. The stuff is. I don't see Victoria's Secret have any advantage whatsoever when all those are there.
Guest Speaker
I think shorter leases and more understanding that this is cyclical. Like, alo right now is on top. But they tried to raise. I forget it, like, a really crazy valuation last year, and they weren't able to raise the money. So everybody thinks aloe is so great, but they're opening stores like crazy. They have a very interesting business where they have a blanks business that they run under another name that fueled the aloe business. But like, what's it going to be in two years when people are sort of over that aesthetic if they're not able to evolve?
Scott Galloway
It's a tale as old as time. Right. Especially retail gets is hot. They raise a ton of capital. They spend like drunken sailors. They overexpand. It's the story of restoration harder. It's the story of all of them.
Chantal Fernandez
Which is why Victoria's Secret is so impressive. Because they survived many of those cycles already before. So why has this cycle been so tricky for them?
Scott Galloway
I have an idea. I want to pitch all three of you around Victoria's Secret and I want to get your reaction. I saw that fashion show and they're trying to have it both ways. I think they absolutely got it like. Like pouring it up. I think they should basically have the hottest men and women and do something with only fans and have a show where basically everyone should just ridiculously fucking hot people naked everywhere. I think they need to embrace their roots. Your thoughts?
Kara Swisher
I'm buying underwear from Uniqlo.
Guest Speaker
I'm the same.
Kara Swisher
I don't want to.
Scott Galloway
And Uniqlo shares just crashed.
Chantal Fernandez
I like the idea of them doing something more dramatic like excluding more people.
Scott Galloway
Lean into us.
Chantal Fernandez
They're trying to be sort of appeal to everyone. And I think that's tough.
Guest Speaker
I just don't think a fashion show is the answer. Like if. Have you all looked at their marketing on Instagram? It's terrible. That's where they should be putting the money if they want to use only fans. Like high fashion has embraced only fans in certain cases and it's worked really well. I think that's a clever idea. But they need to be where the customer is. And right now the other big thing is product is king at the moment. People actually think they're experts on what product is good and bad and their product is not great. And so there's no one on TikTok. On TikTok, everybody's like Abercrombie and jeans fit so well. No one's saying that about a Victoria's Secret bra. So.
Chantal Fernandez
Because what sells it now is comfort, not sex. You know, if they want to be this huge cross cultural brand, it's about comfort.
Kara Swisher
Yeah.
Scott Galloway
So I 100% agree. You could. The inverse. You could. I personally think if you took Athleisure or Lululemon and Victoria's Secret, they're inversely correlated. I think women have gone to Athleisure and away from This, I mean, literally. Lululemon, arguably the best performing special retailer of the last 15 years. And it's just kicked the shit out of Victoria's Secret. It's taken all that margin and all that. Yeah. The world has dramatically changed. I can't get over though. Well, it's a longer conversation. I love specialty retail, but I really, really enjoy your work.
Kara Swisher
All right, thank you. Chantal Fernandez.
Scott Galloway
Lean in, Lean into the dirty.
Kara Swisher
And again, the book is Selling Sexy Victoria's Secret and the Unraveling of an American Icon.
Guest Speaker
Thank you so much.
Chantal Fernandez
Thank you both.
Kara Swisher
All right, Scott, I love how you come alive when it comes to specialty retailer. You love that specialty.
Scott Galloway
Who built William Sonoma's first website in 1994?
Kara Swisher
Carol. I know. I like that. I like that about you have a lot of expertise. Anyway, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails. Support for this show comes from United for Business. Part of building a successful business is deciding what you stand for. And to make that mission happen, you also need to figure out what you fly for. For all your business travel needs, you can rely on United Airlines. I'm a big flyer of United Airlines and I love it. I am a Premier 1K. Someday I will be a global services person, but I use it always for business and it works for me. With United for Business, it's the United you know, with roots all over the US and around the world. To get your whole company where it needs to be and save money along the way, United for Business offers a suite of programs and services tailored to your business travel needs. With their business travel management tool, you can easily book and keep track of expenses with programs with no minimum flight or spend requirements. It's designed for small business businesses and large enterprises alike. And if you need to help deciding which features fit best for your company, you can connect with a dedicated team member who help you find the best solution. Plus, while you save on your business travel, your employees can earn miles as mileage plus members. So it's a win win for your company and your employees. United for Business works with people who are in the business of travel. Get started at uafly Co Pivot.
IBM Representative
Fox Creative.
Scott Galloway
This is advertiser content from Zell. When you picture an online scammer, what do you see?
IBM Representative
For the longest time we have these images of somebody sitting crouched over their computer with a hoodie on, just kind of typing away in the middle of the night. And honestly, that's not what it is anymore.
Scott Galloway
That's Ian Mitchell, a banker turned fraud fraud fighter. These days Online scams look more like crime syndicates than individual con artists. And they're making bank. Last year, scammers made off with more than $10 billion.
IBM Representative
It's mind blowing to see the kind of infrastructure that's been built to facilitate scamming at scale. There are hundreds if not thousands of scam centers all around the world. These are very savvy business people. These are organized criminal rings. And so once we understand the magnitude of this problem, we can protect people better.
Scott Galloway
One challenge that fraud fighters like Ian face is that scam victims sometimes feel too ashamed to discuss what happened to them. But Ian says one of our best defenses is simple. We need to talk to each other.
IBM Representative
We need to have those awkward conversations around. What do you do if you have text messages you don't recognize? What do you do if you start getting asked to send information that's more sensitive? Even my own father fell victim to a, thank goodness, a smaller dollar scam. But he fell victim. And we have these conversations all the time. So we are all at risk and we all need to work together to protect each other.
Scott Galloway
Learn more about how to protect yourself@vox.com Zelle and when using digital payment platforms, remember to only send money to people you know and trust.
IBM Representative
Think scaling AI is hard? Think again. With Watson X you can deploy AI across any environment. Above the clouds, helping pilots navigate flights and on lots of clouds, helping employees automate tasks on prem so designers can access proprietary data and on the edge so remote bank tellers can assist customers. WatsonX works anywhere, so you can scale AI everywhere. Learn more@IBM.com WatsonX IBM, let's create.
Kara Swisher
Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. You go first.
Scott Galloway
Well, my win is I just wanted to bring some attention. I was thinking, how do I show Leanne and Pia some gratitude here? I just want to talk a little bit about the WNBA. The playoffs average 970,000 viewers across the first 17 playoff games. That's 142% increase over 2023 one year. They're up two and a half fold. They attracted an all time record of more than 54 million unique viewers this season in person. Attendance aver 9,800 fans, up 48% from last season. Merchandise sales increased 601% from 2023. The WNBA received nearly 2 billion videos across its social media platforms. More than quadruple last season's total. So the nice thing here is at some point this money, this incremental attendance is going to result in a TV contract and higher salaries. The other Thing that just blew me away. I was asking all about the players. A decent number of the players on the court had given birth.
Kara Swisher
Yeah. They have kids. They're in. Yeah.
Scott Galloway
Their wives slamming into each other. And I, I just, I was. Anyways, my win, my win is a wnba. And again, thank you. My work is done and I can now retire. And, and Pia, for, for inviting me to such a great event. My loss is. I just, I, I can't. I really. And I know that's just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong. And that is when I see young Americans and the way the things they're saying and the way they're behaving on campus and the things they say online. I really do believe that they have an entirely incorrect view of America right now. And I believe something you've talked about a lot. Well, folks, okay, so let's just go. I think at the end of the day, the most important thing a government can do is ensure rights, defend our board borders, and also create a context for prosperity that's Latin for a healthy economy. Let's talk about our economy right here. Right now. We are at full employment. We have the lowest unemployment since 1968. And if you turn on certain networks or listen to certain podcasts, they'd have you believe that it's the fucking Depression. Our inflation is at 2.2%. So by the way, the lowest.
Kara Swisher
Bill Maher was pointing this out.
Scott Galloway
The lowest in the G7. Okay, hold on. What about GDP? What about growth? It's the strongest in the world. We are going to be responsible for 80% according to the World bank of 2025 forecasts in GDP in 1990, the US accounted for 2/5 of GDP of the G7. Today it makes up half. Output per person is now 30% higher than in Western Europe and Canada and 60% higher than in Japan. Gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi is America's poorest state. That's the worst in the U.S. economically. But its hardworking residents earn on average more than Brits, Canadians or Germans. And then lately, China has gone backwards, having closed in rapidly on America. In the years before the pandemic. Its nominal GDP has slipped from about 3/4 of Americas in 2021 to 2/3 today. By the way, I should note I'm parroting all of this from Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, my friend and world class academic from Yale. The US under Biden became the world's largest energy producer. We produce a third more energy than the Saudis and Russia. Biden granted 50% more oil and gas drilling permits than under Trump.
Kara Swisher
Biden's deficit, Trump's dark vision of this country is completely off.
Scott Galloway
The Biden deficit was cut by one third. It tripled under Trump. Immigration, the last six months is far below Trump's. Border crossings, the last six months under Trump and unrivaled. 76 Record highs in the stock market in the last year. Folks, young people, yeah, we still have work to do, but there are 190 sovereign nations in the world in terms of prosperity, your rights, your ability to express who you want to. 189 would trade places with us. So yeah, we got work to do. But also take some pause and just how ridiculously fucking lucky and pat yourself on. Hold on, hold on. The smartest decision you have made was to be born in America and the notion that it is really bad right now. Don't buy, buy it. Don't buy it.
Kara Swisher
All right, all right. You're sounding a little like Obama there. I think my Win was a really wonderful movie. That's snl, which I think is doing was relatively funny this week. And by the way, Billie Eilish is so fantastic. They had Michael Keaton as the guest and Maya Rudolph was great. But they had a skit about scrolling TikTok that was so funny because it was exactly true. It's this video. Go find it. Cause it makes you laugh hysterically. And they were parodying all the different genres of TikTok and I thought it was just on point and made me laugh and laugh and laugh because it was exactly like TikTok is all this ridiculous stuff. And they did a beautiful job of it, which it's something that made me laugh. My fail is are these lies that keep getting. And I know you say they get attention and this and that, but what a terror. I think it dovetails into. What you were talking about is that Trump just was on a thing saying that people go to school and they come back transgender. Like he just repeats it again.
Scott Galloway
I saw that.
Kara Swisher
He's done it.
Scott Galloway
You say, goodbye, have a lovely day. You love Barbara. And they come back. They come back a girl. Yeah, that happens all the time.
Kara Swisher
Never. And like these late term abortions and these incredible lies they tell are just repulsive. This is not what America is. These are dark and sick people. I'm sorry. Same thing with Elon Musk. Lying about Dominion, lying about this. Just the. He did a series of lies and they have lies that are unchecked. Let me tell you something, they're not unchecked Someday. Someday. I'm sorry. I think there's gonna be such a backlash against this kind of behavior, this failure of not our best natures. And it's really grotesque to see some of them. And then the Republicans defending this, like Mike Johnson, who is such a tool when Jake Tapper was mentioning the Arnold Palmer thing was like pretending it didn't matter. It does matter. This kind of discourse brings us all down. We are, as Scott said, a great country. And this is so beneath us, this dark, ugly, lying, pieces of shit version of our country. You know, again, fuck you. That's not what we are. We're much better than that. And I have kids. Scott has kids. We have great hopes for them and they are great people. It's just gross. These are terrible role models and the sooner they're gone, the better. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551, pivot. And on that note, the results from last episode's Threads poll are in. In response to the question, how often are you personally using AI, 31% of you answered daily. This is amazing. 20% of you answered weekly, 31% of you answered occasionally, and 18% of you answered never. Interesting. Anything to say very quickly to the 18%.
Scott Galloway
When I first moved to New York, my team interviewed and hired an assistant for me. And she walked in and we were talking and she said, oh, I don't use computers. And I said, you can't work here. If you want to be gainfully employed in America, you need to understand AI the same way we needed to understand computers.
Kara Swisher
Excellent. That's an excellent thing. Scott is not having any of your shit, any of you, today anyway. That's because he's a lesbian now.
Scott Galloway
Power lesbian.
Kara Swisher
Power lesbian. Excuse me.
Scott Galloway
Hello, ladies.
Kara Swisher
Okay, Barbara, that's the show. We'll be back on Friday. For more. Read us out.
Scott Galloway
Today's show was produced by Lauren Amens, Zoe Marcus and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intertide engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burroughs, Mia Saverio and Dan Schuland. Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcast. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine@nymag.com pod we'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Congratulations to the World Champion New York Liberty.
Chantal Fernandez
Food insecurity still affects millions of individuals around the globe, and Nestle, a global leader in nutrition, health and wellness.
Guest Speaker
Understands the importance of working together to create lasting change.
Chantal Fernandez
Nestle's partnerships extend beyond just financial support, from building urban hoop houses to producing custom seasoning for food banks. Nestle and their partners actively engage with local communities, listening to their needs and working together to find innovative solutions. Nestle is committed to helping support thriving, resilient communities today and for generations to come. Together, we can help to build stronger, healthier communities.
Kara Swisher
Learn more@nestle.com.
Pivot Podcast Episode Summary
Title: Elon's Million Dollar Giveaway, OpenAI and Microsoft Tensions, and Guests Chantal Fernandez and Lauren Sherman
Host/Author: New York Magazine
Episode Overview: In this episode of Pivot, tech journalists Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway delve into the escalating tensions between OpenAI and Microsoft, explore Elon Musk's controversial million-dollar giveaway, and host Chantal Fernandez and Lauren Sherman to discuss their new book on the rise and fall of Victoria’s Secret. The episode is rich with insights, sharp analyses, and engaging discussions that provide listeners with a comprehensive understanding of these significant topics in tech and business.
Timestamp: [18:00] – [22:17]
Discussion Highlights: Scott Galloway and Kara Swisher examine the deteriorating "bromance" between OpenAI and Microsoft, once hailed as a strong partnership in the tech industry. Financial pressures on OpenAI and Microsoft's strategic maneuvers are contributing to the strain.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Scott Galloway: “They’re so pissed off at the other. The issue, I find, with stuff like this, and it’s the most challenging thing in business is compensation.”
[Timestamp: 21:16]
Insights:
Timestamp: [35:15] – [38:20]
Discussion Highlights: Elon Musk's recent initiative to award a million dollars daily to registered swing voters has sparked legal debates. The podcast explores the implications of this giveaway in the context of election laws and Musk's strategic maneuvers.
Key Points:
Notable Quote:
Kara Swisher: “Elon is randomly awarding a million dollar daily prize to registered swing voters who sign his PAC's petition supporting the First and Second Amendments.”
[Timestamp: 34:40]
Insights:
Timestamp: [43:58] – [62:19]
Guests: Chantal Fernandez (The Cut) and Lauren Sherman (Puck)
Book Discussed: Selling Sexy Victoria’s Secret and the Unraveling of an American Icon
Discussion Highlights: Fernandez and Sherman provide an in-depth analysis of Victoria's Secret's rise to dominance and its subsequent decline. They explore the brand's historical strategies, cultural impact, and the factors leading to its current challenges.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Chantal Fernandez: “Victoria’s Secret has been so connected to the zeitgeist for decades. It was a window into the American consumer psyche.”
[Timestamp: 44:27]
Lauren Sherman: “They really missed the mark on the Bralette and that meant they missed the mark on everything happening in culture and marketing.”
[Timestamp: 51:09]
Insights:
Timestamp: [12:01] – [26:50]
Topics Covered:
Notable Quotes:
Scott Galloway: “OpenAI is running away with it. The Netflix of the sector.”
[Timestamp: 23:20]
Robert Downey Jr.: “I’m not worried about them hijacking my character’s soul because there are like three or four guys and gals who make all the decisions.”
[Timestamp: 26:11]
Insights:
Timestamp: [30:00] – [43:28]
Discussion Highlights: Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway analyze former President Donald Trump’s recent comments and actions, including inappropriate jokes and political strategies, alongside Elon Musk’s involvement in political campaigns and giveaways.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Kara Swisher: “I think Elon's in more trouble in a Trump presidency. I think he's got issues...”
[Timestamp: 42:23]
Scott Galloway: “The whole point of our criminal justice system is that criminals do the math or when you’re about to commit a crime, you do the math and it's the following.”
[Timestamp: 37:25]
Insights:
Timestamp: [66:07] – [74:18]
Discussion Highlights: In their "Wins and Fails" segment, Scott Galloway shares positive developments in the WNBA, while highlighting concerns about young Americans' perception of the United States. Kara Swisher reflects on cultural phenomena like Saturday Night Live, and discusses Trump’s continual dissemination of misleading information.
Key Points:
Notable Quotes:
Scott Galloway: “The biggest contrast I noticed because I think I know... the audience is young, cool people.”
[Timestamp: 09:38]
Kara Swisher: “This kind of discourse brings us all down. We are, as Scott said, a great country.”
[Timestamp: 73:30]
Insights:
Conclusion: This episode of Pivot offers a multifaceted exploration of current trends and challenges in the tech and business landscapes. From the strained alliance between OpenAI and Microsoft, Elon Musk's audacious political gambits, to the detailed examination of Victoria's Secret’s market missteps, Swisher and Galloway provide listeners with incisive commentary and thought-provoking insights. The discussions also touch upon broader societal issues, including the influence of media and the importance of ethical leadership in both business and politics.
Notable Quotes Recap:
For more detailed insights and the full episode, listeners can subscribe to Pivot through their preferred podcast platform or visit nymag.com/pivot.